Broken Markets Spreading

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors


For those not "lucky" enough to be involved in the CDS market, liquidity is breaking down in Europe.  Main was quoted as tight as 1/2 bp markets yeserday, is now being quoted on 2 to 3 bp markets, mostly by traders who seem to wish they had left an hour ago.  XOVER, is at least 5 bps wide, and as much as 10 bps wide, but the dealers still brave enough to send something. 

This is not good, and although wider, it hasn't yet felt like anyone is reaching and paying too much just to get a hedge on, which makes me think this is not yet over.

IG16 is holding in reasonably well, but even there the bid/offer has moved back to 1.5 bps so dealers do not want to provide liquidity here.  My IG200 hats are still worthless, but MAIN 200 seems a distinct possibility, even before the close as the best offer I just saw was 196, and that is probably flaky given SPX just broke 1155.

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Id fight Gandhi's picture

But definitely off the lows fuck off maria! Put the pom poms away /rant

Figures for me turning on cnbs

It is a bargin my friend's picture

Ok I have a thing where I anally do that little chinky one with the dodgy mouth from behind while she screams "off the lows of the day" bothers me that I'm too far into this shit now too extracte myself...advice please

redpill's picture

Wow dude, maybe switch to Bloomberg for a few days (the Asian chick that hosts the show in the evening covering Asian markets is a little vixen).


Git_Naked's picture

Like that will help his problem

SheepDog-One's picture

Even if the markets are down 3%, its good news, as theyre 'off the lows'...I only hope to see the day when these whores are employed properly as $15 prostitutes. Then I could yell at them as I pass by 'HEY IT COULD BE WORSE, YOURE OFF THE LOWS! YOU COULD BE A $10 WHORE'!

TruthInSunshine's picture

1150 marks the spot.

To the extent that one believes technical damage can be done to the spooz (don't ask me, since The Bernank broke the global markets), a hard break below 1150 today will break many hedge funds.

Something about that leverage thing...

Now, who wants to be long over this, of all, weekends?

espirit's picture

Not me, and I'm thinking of dumping my SPX short ETF and going cash.

Even a short is long in this ponzi.

Joshua Falken's picture

"Even a short is long in this ponzi"


Dear espirit

with logic like that, do you work for the Fed or an Algo Scalper?

Popo's picture

Yeah, but the problem is that 'weekends' are when those annoying sticksaves happen.  And if you're short into the weekend,  you just might wake up to a Monday morning ass-raping by the powers-that-be.  The market opens 10 handles higher, and Stimulus 9.0 is making CNBC anchor women cream in their panties.

I've seen this movie way too many times before, and it's the reason I can't short even when shorting looks like the most obvious play in the world.



SMG's picture

I feel your pain, but I think this weekend is a good one to chance it and hold on, at least I did.  It really seems like this is actually going to be Greek Default 2011.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

T/A is bullshit. I can't see an positive in the EU. Greece needs to fucking default already. Quit the foreplay and let's move on.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea really, sick of watching round and round musical chairs the music never stops.

espirit's picture

...and it's the same f'ing song!

Enough to drive one bat chit.

john39's picture

that is part of the plan...   that is afterall how you boil a frog...  slowly, so he doesn't jump out of the pot.

Mactheknife's picture

Damn I'm ready for some football and cold beer.

Long-John-Silver's picture

That could happen right after the markets close this afternoon.

espirit's picture

Probably be bullish too!

Sad, but lol.

Pig Brotha's picture

HF Market Analysis

HF 2Q net exposure the highest since 2007; cash levels low
Based on the quarterly 13F filings and estimated short positions of the
equity holdings of 895 funds, we calculate that hedge funds increased gross
exposure by roughly $50bn to $1090bn in 2Q. Net exposure rose by 6.7% in
the second quarter, after rising 38.8% in 1Q11 and 36.7% during the last
quarter of 2010. HFs had the highest net exposure & lowest cash level since
the 2007 market peak - net exposure was 54% in 2Q vs. 59% at the peak, and
cash levels were at 4.7% in 2Q vs. 4.3% in 2007. This may be dated data but
hedge funds are not likely positioned for the equity market to trade below
1100 on the S&P 500. Hedge funds can still drive equity prices lower.

CClarity's picture

Necessities cost more and your assets are worth less.  Isn't that paying for inflation with assets and wages dinged by deflation?  Isn't that a problem?  When will the markets REALLY adjust to this reality?  It isn't simply transitory unless your time line is very long.

1835jackson's picture

BAC back in the 6's bitchez

bob_dabolina's picture

Bernanke would print money before that happened again. 

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Maybe Warren will double down after another bath or lemon party.

OpenEyes's picture

BAC is this year's Lehman.  They'll be left out of the next bailout party.  Somebody has to be the bagholder, this time looks like BAC's turn to me.

SheepDog-One's picture

Buffet just filled another Depends.

Scisco's picture

Wish I understood more than the first sentence.

Long-John-Silver's picture

"Much to learn, you still have."


JohnG's picture

Credit is blowing out, which usually indicated market drops.  The more credit widens, you get to collapse faster.

NotApplicable's picture

Luckily the world's master bankers (or banker masters, I forget) will have all weekend to fix it. It'll all be good come monday, just you wait and see.

Scisco's picture

So the market is float up on hot air that is rapidly cooling. Wonder if the politician's yapping will be able to keep it going. Thank you for the summery.

blunderdog's picture

Increased rates on short-term liquidity means that big providers are increasingly concerned that there's going to be a major event which they can't recover from.  If you think of it as gamblers at a poker table, where everyone is "known" to be really loaded, they can extend short-term loans to each other effectively "risk free."

Once someone starts thinking that one guy isn't good for it anymore, no one wants to take the chance. 

Fear spreads instantly because of how closely intertwined all the balance sheets are.

mt paul's picture


opens tool box 

finds bent screw driver

and a hammer

with broken handle....

NotApplicable's picture

...and proceeds to pry the lock off of the liquor cabinet, yet again (which is how the tools were broken in the first place).

Piranhanoia's picture

Since we have machines to vote, think and purchase for us,  they will tell us what's right.

After this brief intermission there will be a few thousand dukes yelling "turn the machines back on" all weekend.  May not be this one, but do you get the feeling that is how it ends?  Someone in the travel business should alert us if a whole lot of big shots plan on flying so we will know. 

Henry Chinaski's picture

And the President on the Oval Office saying "Who's been putting out Kools on my carpet?"

RichardENixon's picture

It was a Newport. And I couldn't find an ashtray anywhere.

blunderdog's picture

Isn't it a violation of Federal law to smoke in the White House?


Henry Chinaski's picture

Good thing it is Friday.  Wonder if there will be an new surprise announcements tonight.

JW n FL's picture



sitting on the sidelines on a bench made of Gold.. as uncomfortable as it sounds.. I promise that it is anything but.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I'll let these lunatics devour each other while watching from the sidelines stacking up some PM coins.