BTFD No More?
In reality, it is little surprise that behaviorally we see risk markets recover from precipitous declines - we are an optimistic bunch of knife-catchers after all. Credit Suisse's Global Risk Appetite index uses a number of factors to track the herd's shift from euphoria to dysphoria, and uses those panic levels to BTFD. The typical response function is around a 230 day upswing in animal spirits before reality sets in from now-euphoric levels. It seems that from the April 2011 'panic' levels in their index, we are about a month away from it being as good as it is going to get and the BTFD'ers will perhaps notice from the chart below that as time has gone on (from the '82 recovery to the current recovery) that the response function has had diminishing potential - as we are very near to Peak Recovery.
But just in case you need a reminder...
Source: Credit Suisse
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