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BTFD No More?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In reality, it is little surprise that behaviorally we see risk markets recover from precipitous declines - we are an optimistic bunch of knife-catchers after all. Credit Suisse's Global Risk Appetite index uses a number of factors to track the herd's shift from euphoria to dysphoria, and uses those panic levels to BTFD. The typical response function is around a 230 day upswing in animal spirits before reality sets in from now-euphoric levels. It seems that from the April 2011 'panic' levels in their index, we are about a month away from it being as good as it is going to get and the BTFD'ers will perhaps notice from the chart below that as time has gone on (from the '82 recovery to the current recovery) that the response function has had diminishing potential - as we are very near to Peak Recovery.

 

 

But just in case you need a reminder...

 

Source: Credit Suisse

 

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Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:54 | 2610504 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Completely controlled and manipulated collapse, as evidenced by the VIX.

No one is playing.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:58 | 2610517 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

30 days more of BTFD, then STFP.  All seems to work out perfectly with Bob the Bear's most recent call... We are going to however need a trully ambitious PPT for this--maybe being new on the job will motivate Potter to overshoot his goals...

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:03 | 2610539 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Volume for the first half of the year was lower than in any previous year since the crisis (2008), even with the HFT bots fighting for sub-pennies like seagulls on a garbage pile. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:39 | 2611047 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

I think the time to BTFD is rapidly disappearing. BTFD for Gold and Silver only.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.ca/

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:33 | 2612001 rocker
rocker's picture

Never believe not that the market is manipulated.

JPMorgan is the largest hedge fund liquidator. Hence, JPMorgan is also the largest Market Maker for thier clients.

I jus want to know one thing. How do they make prices go up as they are sellling.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:55 | 2610505 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

OT

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

X class solar flare from AR 1520

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:55 | 2610506 Zola
Zola's picture

This is rubbish, never any follow through on declines.  Who has all this money to buy stocks whenever they fall ???

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:59 | 2610522 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Ummm. Investors who are either holding cash or extensive short positions would have money when buying opportunities arose.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:59 | 2610527 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

NYFed (wink wink) and Eurobanks looking for a US hotel to park their hot money...

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:01 | 2610533 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

light volume makes it very easy

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 20:05 | 2611509 Umh
Umh's picture

People who sold is when it started to fall.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:00 | 2610529 adr
adr's picture

Are we really back to Europe closed so now let's rally again?

Stocks are unchanged now, oil shot up over a buck and a half. How many days has it been now that oil falls over 1% at night only to go back up 1% or more during the US trading day?

Seriously, what the fuck is going on?

Will there be any investigations into the obvious manipulation? Of course not.

Is it all the NYFed buying stocks, yep.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:02 | 2610537 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

<== Short JPM earnings

<== Long JPM earnings

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:13 | 2610562 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

NYT said a 9 Bil loss due to the whale trade.  When it comes in at only 5 Bil it will rip.   MOPE at its best.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:14 | 2610960 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

<=== Fuck JPM earnings

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:07 | 2610541 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Be that as it may, on a day to day basis there is a huge amount of short squeeze manipulation.  Today is a particularly ridiculous example.  Unbelievable price spikes and fall-backs.  Just saw McDonalds shoot from mid 90's to 92.50, then back down to 91.50 in minutes.  McDonalds??  WTF??  Not to mention the indices stick saves from moving average failures, but nothing new there.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:22 | 2610578 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Thats the Ronald McDonald clown working his algo machine.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:35 | 2610815 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Ahhh, so THATS what boxing the clown means......

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:04 | 2610542 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

At best, a zero sum game for the sheeple and a potential litigation nightmare for the elites.  Which obviously means WWIII as a distraction.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:07 | 2610545 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Why does this market remind me of the Penn St. horrific but not surprising sexual escpades. Shit, Sandusky probably forced these poor souls to suck the presdients dick too!

 

The entire world has corrected markedly but we are at all-time-highs....

 

POMO STRAIGHT INTO EQUITIES....

 

Sooner rather than later the weight will be too much.....

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 17:06 | 2611110 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

hey orangedrink: rumor has it sandusky was never jailed years ago because of "big game rigging with the bookies" he had the goods on the saintly paterno and co. paterno had millions but kept a low profile much like buffett. joe protected him to keep the lid on the things(mob money pay offs to pols & law) that would have come out.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:07 | 2610546 sunny
sunny's picture

Is it just me, but doesn't the peak for the 2011 curve look to have happened around day 100???  The curve has been declining ever since.  Just saying.

sunny

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:08 | 2610547 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

BITING THE FUCKING DUST!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:09 | 2610551 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Again, another DESPEARTE day...you can just feel them manipulating it....

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:09 | 2610552 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If they get the Nasdaq to close green today, I will have to salute them... they will have wiped out some of my most important short positions. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:19 | 2610571 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The problem is like with Creditsuise is that they run the triple ETF's ETNs like TVIX and there is not enough money on the other side of trades because Fraud has not been prosecuted. Therefore the lack of actual counterparty capital is not there. The entire system must have smaller and smaller divergences in order that it does not collapse. When one of the big guys goes down the fraud in the system could cause the entire system to freeze. Instead of arresting the crimminal banksters the banksters have taken over the political structure in the US and are passing draconian laws from which they have immunity. At college this morning at 6:30am in Santa Monica a White 350 Ford pickup truck with 6 military dressed police officers in the open air back of it, flanked by three squad cars drove past me on Pico Blvd. Then at class a student was arguing with the teacher about being late. He would not leave the class and this police officer that looked more like a spaceman came in. He must have been 7 1/2 feet tall with his helmet on. But by then the student had already left. Anyhow the takeover of American is well underway. The banksters can pull the plug any moment.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:40 | 2610640 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

You sure they weren't headed over to Tico's or Johny's for some lunch?! ;)

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:19 | 2610575 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

this time it's different

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:25 | 2610585 Bob
Bob's picture

Time to liquidate that 401K/IRA, if you've let it ride this long. 

It will be pensions/retirement accounts that eat the big losses.  Virtually all of them. 

Could it have been planned this way all along, me wonders?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:26 | 2610590 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i beg the question "who" is buying the dip? HAL9000's ? Anyone involved in equities with an IQ above 2 wouldnt go long in this disaster if you paid them. Outflows support that. The poster that said POMO straight into equities has nailed it dead on. Thats what OT is all about. The skimmed portion going to the HAL s.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:32 | 2610615 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

If they can hold it here, the 3:00/3:30 pump will give them a green day.  Low volume of course.  Might even get the SPY back above that 134.2 line.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:33 | 2610618 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Computers trading with other computers.  

Computers reacting to other computers.

Algorithyms programs crunching the numbers from other computers.

 

There is no "who" buying the dip!  Only machines here trading.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:35 | 2610625 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

It seems that from the April 2011 'panic' levels

Tyler, I believe you meant October 2011. April 2011 was a high month. The dates in the graph are dd/mm/yyyy.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:39 | 2610635 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i think the guy with the boobies.. in his avitar is buying. Robo something. ?? hes buyin it seems. robo.. robot hal9000 all the same.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:20 | 2610978 Bob
Bob's picture

Robo?  So much for the machines becoming self-aware.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:44 | 2610654 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Must admit holding 100% confetti + physical feels good and safe. Not interested in this market so I guess I will not "buy the fucking dip",,,.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:48 | 2610660 adr
adr's picture

You want to see a fun chart?

Take a look at Fraudbook today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FB&ql=0

 

What happenned to SuperValu? Man, -50% in one day.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:51 | 2610664 Racer
Racer's picture

That clip says it all! 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:01 | 2610690 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

hmnmmn i heard from art cashin that tomorrow is some cycle low and the market has to rally so i guess everyone decided to buy it today before the rally tomorrow. its buy the deep scheme you fukin idiots. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2610701 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

I have nothing but red on my screen and yet the dow and s&p are single digit down.  At the moment.  But the magic EOD ramp is almost on us.

 

It should be awe inspiring, but it's not.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2610708 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

REIT dips would be bought but dips aren't even allowed. Just relentless upward momentum.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:13 | 2610731 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

this is exactly like 2008 when the market did all it could to frustrate shorts. everyday short was like walking on broken glass. in the end all the shorts puked and the market crashed. this is the problem for the fed. they know that for the market to function they need shorts but as soon as shorts make a bit of money fed decides they dont deserve it and intervene which results in this huge intra day rallies of the lows which in the end leads to a bigger supply demand imbalance and a crash like in 2008 after the short interest plunges to all time low. i learnt to survive this widen your stops massivly and dont let the feds take you out of a good trade with fake rallies. obviously if fundamentals change then change with it. it will be very painful for shorts over next 3 months. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:17 | 2610747 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

I dunno, looks to me like Buy the Dips is alive and well.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:17 | 2610753 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

2:15 is here.. ding... Bennie has got the HALs all warmed up. Let the EOD rip commence.. 5,4,3,2Market? oh no no no. .Theres no stinking market. This is called price propaganda.. as i said at 7am.. Ben will get this to finish where they want. At least in a casino theres a bit of game and chance. This is not

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:34 | 2610810 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

just fuckin' wierd

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:11 | 2611973 rosesryellow
rosesryellow's picture

The whole stock market is  a pyramid scheme... always has been. It's  pyramid scheme on the long and the short side. The only way to make money on it is to  be early enough in to benefit from the pyramid scheme. Since the big bankers control the market, they are always the first ones in and first ones out in this pyramid scheme. They always win, and the only way you can win is to figure out what they are doing nd to ride their coat tails.

 

Anyway, what is this video trying to accomplish and who made it?

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