The Bull, Bear, And Secular Case From BofAML

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Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:03 | 1963841 pebblewriter
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Pretty well sums it up.  Bulls need QE, jobs, inflation, Chinese bailouts and politicians with backbones.  Bears need Newton's first law to hold.

BTW, any bulls salivating over the potential inverse H&S setting up on SPX should know that we've had two previous similar setups that failed spectacularly, trapping loads of disappointed bulls.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 16:24 | 1964153 distopiandreamboy
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Excellent charts you got there!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:20 | 1964882 pebblewriter
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Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:07 | 1963842 laspeyres
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"Equities are cheap relative to history". When did 1996-2011 become the special benchmark era ?  Of course that era of market liberalisation, rising leverage and carefree capitalism will be a great guide to 2012 and beyond.


Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:18 | 1963901 HedgeAccordingly
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S&P's pretty lathargic intra session today... 1255 to be tested

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:56 | 1964039 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Sorry but they don't provide sell-side analysts with data further back than 1980.  

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:36 | 1963849 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So, today's 3pm rumor should be fun.  Hopefully it'll explain the +22 point rise for today.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:25 | 1963851 slewie the pi-rat
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even Robo_T makes more sense than these retail loonies, who correctly see that (paste):

  • "...a recovery in the real estate, banking and labor markets...would allow the Fed to raise interest rates, resulting in a “good” bear market in bonds..."
    • [did we mention Slim just left town?  and that is about the end of them being correct about anything?] 
  • furthermore, the "trigger catalyst" to know this is REAL is:"...US initial weekly unemployment claims dropping below 375k, boosting the domestic demand story..."
    • did we mention these figures are very creative, fictitous, really, and a simple assumptive hedonic tweak to the age demographics can bring this about in a few months, if not weeks?
  • so, basically that leaves us with an "economy" based on printing  (ECB QE + EU fiscal contraction + Fed QE3 + China ease) no matter how much Robo_T tells us the REITs are kickin ass

the shitheads never even mentioned either of the "R" words, did they?  may their poor, innocent "clients and customers" suffer as painlessly as possible...

...of course...


Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:31 | 1963944 fuu
fuu's picture

The fact that BofAmylnitrate still has clients is actually very sad.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:07 | 1963853 lairdwd
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I think both their bear bad and bear ugly estimates are too high.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:16 | 1963893 There is No Spoon
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The title of chart 7 refutes the actual chart. Basically they're saying "buy the dip."

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:33 | 1963955 DrDre
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Typical sell side. They always need to feed some hope that there will be another bull market at some point soon. If they had studied those charts appropriately, they'd see that the next bull market is several years away NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE ECONOMY. The point is, there is no relationship between economic growth and returns on assets. Assets are EXPENSIVE when measured on a long-term cyclical basis using the CAPE (The PE ration with 10yrs average E). 

It is ok to buy the dip, as long as one also sells the tops ...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 18:01 | 1964522 AldousHuxley
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only believe research when the researcher's own money is in it. the bigger the life savings % the better.

Otherwise they are selling shit they won't eat themselves....probably because they know it is shit.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:34 | 1963956 DrDre
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- ... 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:50 | 1964014 radicall
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Something not a lot of people are talking about is WHY the trailing multiples are coming down. The reason is secular slowing in global growth and likely increased frequency of recessions in the future. Single digit PEs might be the norm unless the world can get out of this funk.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 15:57 | 1964041 firstdivision
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·         China to purchase $2 Trillion EU bonds - China Daily



Fri, 12/09/2011 - 16:00 | 1964054 Heyoka Bianco
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Notice how all of their chart scenarios for gold/oil are either down, barely changed, or just a squeak up instead of an upside explosion, even in the "ugly" scenario. And apparently a "collapse" in the Euro results in it still being 0.20 above parity with the dollar. Those sell-side commissions buy some good shit, don't they?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 16:11 | 1964091 Snake Plissken
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"In this scenario earnings growth would likely have double-digit declines, and Financials would take another leg down"

Not sure why the word 'growth' is included in that sentence. Actually I am, they are f***** retards.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 16:40 | 1964218 YoDudeRock
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If I could punch this market, I would.   Maybe it's time to put my punching bag back up.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 17:02 | 1964298 Zola
Zola's picture

This market is ridiculous. Back and forth trip between today and yesterday. Hello? back at the same point. 

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