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Bullard Says FOMC Minutes Are Stale

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following yesterday's FOMC minutes we suggested that the minutes are, all facts considered, extremely stale, especially when one actually observes the surge in all economic indicators (or should we say seasonal adjustments) since the last FOMC meeting. Moments ago, on CNBC, non-voting St Louis Fed president confirmed just that.

  • St. Louis Fed President Bullard says FOMC minutes “are a bit stale”.
  • Says some data stronger since FOMC minutes
  • Doesn’t know where FOMC will come out on easing
  • Says “different constellation” of data vs 2011
  • Says “not sure” data warrant big FOMC action
  • Says U.S. unemployment “very high”
  • Says “we’re not going to react” directly to stock market

In other words, the FOMC minutes do not reflect the economy, but the Fed does not care about the market which just happens to be at 2012 highs, as it does not reflect the economy either, but instead reflects merely what the FOMC thinks, which in turn reacts solely to the market.

Get it?

Bullard also says, via BBG:

  • Possible QE3 could complicate exit strategy
  • "Very worried’’ about European “common market” idea
  • Only so much that ECB can do
  • Quantitative easing may be warranted in Europe
  • Earlier: Bullard Sees 80% Chance Congress Will Reach Financing Deal

Sure it will: if the market collapses and lobbyists and backers demand immediate action. There will be NO deal if the S&P continues to be at 2012 highs.

 


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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:47 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Bullshitard says: "Gotta make precious metals stop making us central planners look like the idiots we are!"

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:50 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Of course the Fed doesn't care about the levels of the market....they're the ones jacking the levels up.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:05 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dude....you totally can't just come out and just say that!

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

<del>

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment fireangelmaverick
fireangelmaverick's picture

Ok, I am confused, should I or Should I not buy this fucking dip?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:54 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

If it's sour cream and chive, I'd go for it!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just stay away from the brown hummus......it's not poison.....it's just bad hummus.

 

Why take a bad trip when you don't have to?

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Yes.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

just stack. slowly. relentlessly. methodically. call it "saving". look it up, the word used to exist.

there is an economy somewhere that can convert savings in productive investment. sometimes this somewhere is in the future.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:01 | Link to Comment beachdude
beachdude's picture

'Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!'

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Jackson Hole will be interesting.  How can they spin it?

 

With the new QE priced in a few times over plus the comeback rally yesterday, it will be interesting how they gently let the market down, again.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:19 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"We've got to do something about this persistent unemployment!"

<shovels money out discount window, buys bad MBS, hoovers up the lost home for little shares that couldn't>

With a "dual mandate", there's always something to do.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:47 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hey Tyler can you please translate the bloomberg article on the SEC and money market funds that just went up?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment vertexa
vertexa's picture

 

 

 

Before the Great Depression…

8 years of steady stock market growth
Low unemployment…
No bank failures
No mortgage foreclosures
Europe in good shape
Manufacturing jobs were plentiful
Dollar value was high

When we crashed we took Europe down with us and it took 13 years and WWII to get out of it..

Today we have

High unemployment about 20%
Banks are still failing
The stock market looks like a yo-yo
over 2 million house foreclosures
Manufacturing jobs are gone
Dollar isn’t worth shit…
Eurpoe on the verge of collapse..If they go we go…if we go they go

There is nothing in our future that can bring about any change for at least 50 years…

welcome to the new normal..

We are 100 times worse shape than during the Great Depression..

http://investmentwatchblog.com/us-economy-worse-than-europe/#.UDYY3EWe6CN

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:57 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Give me two years and 100% authority and I would turn the economy around in two years max.  Not a problem.

1.  Bankruptcy.

2.  100% fractional reserve banking.

3.  National bank restricted to weights and measures.

4.  Money backed by silver.

5,  Free floating bimetallism.

6.  Federal government restricted to 10% of the GDP.

7.  End all federal entitlement programs.

Hang central bankers, jail politicians.

Done.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:17 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You'd still be in the depths of a massive deflationary spiral two years in.

To think you could rejigger an economy this big in that short a period of time shows a profound lack of understanding.

Tell the truth: you live in a condo and drive a German car.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

"You'd still be in the depths of a massive deflationary spiral two years in".

Great. Let's get it done and over with. It's called a CYCLE. The Fed has been trying to prevent a natural CYCLE occurring, which is why, when it comes, it will be worse than it would have been.

You've been brainwashed into thinking we have to have inflation - that's what the Fed et al WANT, it keeps the Ponzi going.

DavidC

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

No, I'm just not so dumb as to make grandiose statements about how long we would need to suffer in order to get through to the other side of your "cycle".

I would love to see exactly what kind of "growth" could occur under bimetallism, but even when the answer comes back "precious little", most will not be swayed any more than the next cultist.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

I would love to see exactly what kind of "growth" could occur under bimetallism,

That would be "real growth".

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The permanent growth meme has no relevance to an economy with sound money, one that must actually produce more than debt and inflation year over year to acheive "growth".

I prefer sound money and low growth to blatant theft and infinite "growth".

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Why the fuck is there such a lag between the Fed meeting and minutes being released in the first place?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Before the information can be distributed to the unwashed masses such as ourselves, the information must first be disseminated (pardon the pun) to the 2/20 "white shoes" (again, pardon) crowd by an antiquated system of male teen gigolos and old cocaine contacts which involves a certain "latency".

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 07:59 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i took it to mean "whoever writes this stuff sucks ass" myself. "there's no zip here. GO GET ME WRITERS! I NEED WRITERS NOW!" now that the Fed must have a public persona i imagine such criticisms are an outgrowth "of the new reality of being Fed Star" as well. you must demand....only the best. AND GET IT! of course "Diva" and "Fed People" sure doesn't sound healthy to me...just sayin' of course. Who was that guy who was a girl who used to hang out here oh so many years ago? She/he was a Jackson Holer/Fed person wasn't she/he? Why am i all of sudden worried...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:07 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

But of course the FOMC minutes are fresh enough to shoot the DOW straight up or down whenever it's convenient.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:12 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Everytime they say "no easing" it only means they just wrote some giant checks to someone they had not planned on writing.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:16 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

If the ECB prints enough, the Fed must follow or the equity markets will crash.  Right now, the Fed is lagging the ECB.  I think you can weigh the odds of more QE based on the EUR/USD.  If it continues to rise, the odds of pre-election QE are high.  That said, I think it will take the form of more MBS purchases from Fannie/Freddie, rather than an accelerated purchase of Treasuries.  The Fed is already in a hole of interest rate and asset deflation risk, and it looks to dig deeper.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Let me write the damned thing:

 

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, break out the guillotine and let the good times (and heads) roll bitchez! [/a tale of twelve bankers]

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Like killing roaches with a BB gun; they breed to fast.

Make em work in a sweatshop making flip-flops with no AC or picking vegetables in 100 deg F heat for life; monetize the TV rights.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

It's like being a daily market reporter. You know who I’m talking about. Those people who provide deep fundamental reasons on an hourly basis for the market being up or down, only to find out the direction has reversed by the time their story is published.

Sometimes you’re forced to say something even when you have nothing to say.

 

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

hmmm,no QE poil go down economy get better on own/ QE, oil go up, people spend less, econopomy get bad. wonder how many times they need to keep doing this before they figure it out. But since it has nothing to do qith the economy, we know  it's a lie.

jamie to ben. Ben my peeps are going to get a realy small bonus this year. Ben, don't worry jamie, a bit of qe will fix that

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:24 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Bank of England’s report into the distributional effects of its asset purchases.

 

Extracts from Alphaville:

By pushing up a range of asset prices, asset purchases have boosted the value of households’ financial wealth held outside pension funds, but holdings are heavily skewed with the top 5% of households holding 40% of these assets.


For a defined benefit pension scheme in substantial deficit, asset purchases are likely to have increased the size of the deficit. That is because although QE raised the value of the assets and liabilities by a similar proportion, that nonetheless implies a widening in the gap between the two.  The burden of these deficits is likely to fall on employers and future employees, rather than those coming up for retirement now.


The overall impact of QE on household wealth is likely to have been substantial… In practice, the benefits from these wealth effects will accrue to those households holding most financial assets.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:28 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yes, the Fed doesn't react to the markets (see jan 2008 and 75bp rate cute in response to Soc Gen unwinding Kerviels positions) - in the same way that TARP was really really going to help under-water homeowners.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Is it really REacting if the Fed caused it in the first place, or at very least knew about it all along?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

ES now down almost a FULL POINT!!!

Wait...Never mind.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment Aquaman
Aquaman's picture

There's an old Wall Street saying "the market climbs a steaming pile of shxt" ....or something like that...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bullard: "We are making it easier to take on more and more debt, how is that good?"

Although it makes sense it seems like the other Fed doves are winning.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

The Fed's motto should be:

"Uncertainty.  If Congress can do it and screw up the economy, so can we."

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Throw in the individual Banksters & you got a three-way fight for everybody's fave: "Who da pimp? Who da 'ho?" OH, shit, I forgot the fucking lobbyists......that makes four. Four fo' da ho"

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

What's so hard to understand. The FRB waits and uses data that has already occurred just like the rest of us. It is only assumed they are so much smarter that they will act upon that data to make the right decisions. Lost upon that fact is that the FRB is reacting, not pre-emptively acting. They are the ones that are stale. And thus, their minutes, a product of a stale group, will by definition be stale.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

Says “we’re not going to react” directly to stock market

 

Really? Is that why they are working so hard to manipulate it?

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