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Bullish Dollar Sentiment Surges By Most In Years, As CFTC-Based Rumors Of Euro Demise Are Not Exaggerated
For once the speculators got it right. In the week ended September 20, net USD futures and options exposure surged by the most in years, with net non-commercial contracts soaring by a whopping 22,577 contracts to the highest since April of 2010. The flip trade is a collapse in EUR sentiment, which saw net exposure plunge by 25,001 from -54,459 to -79,460, the most bearish sentiment in the European currency has been since June 2010. Net net: the euro is now massively oversold explaining why even the smallest of rumors initiates a furious short covering squeeze. And yes, the next bubble is now not in silver, not in gold, but in the dollar. The first sign of moderation of European stress, or a Hilsenrath piece on the next round of QE by the Chairsatan, and watch the DXY and the various USD pair collapse (and gold surge).
Source: CFTC COT
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Yes... bullish for dollars... because they're not being printed like Zimbabwe....
This is funny.
It's all about where the value is at the moment... The rats are just looking for a dry spot while the whole ship sinks.
And the biggest rats know which way the puppet masters are going to move currencies and metals before it happens, and they profit hugely from these wild swings. Unfortunately, these guys also probably bought themselves spots on the life boats already.
Gee how fucking early can we get by calling a dollar bubble now?!
The real issue is the unwinding of the massive dollar carry trade engineered by Benny and the Inkjets. All assets are potentially subject to powerful deflationary forces as the dollar rallies. The central printers will try to counteract the popping of their bubble, but I believe animal spirits will overwhelm their prfound arrogance and stupidity. The markets are bigger then the banksters who dream of being central planners. At least communist dictators are relatively honest about their public abuses. Or at least their charades are more easily recognized by the masses than that of Helicopter Ben and like ilk.
This is exactly the case, you just have to look at EM debt, it is falling like a stone. The carry trade is over, and the dollar rally it's not near over yet.
yep, risk off, carry over
I'm inclined to agree, however the swings may be brutal.
Great analogy. Think of the dollar as Leonardo, holding Kate Winslet (the banks) by her MBS waste, both high on the bow, Leondardo di Dollario ready to freeze to death in the cold ice, so Bank Winslet may live...
Repost from this morning: Think about the current USD ramp like the Titanic, where all the panicked passengers rush to the fantail because it's the highest point on the ship. Yes, that's where the best trade is, and the big inside money knows where the highest point at any given time will be, but they also know they need a seat on the lifeboats when the ship goes down, because when that happens, the highest point will be below water.
The PM haters and deflationists ignore this argument and point to the higher points on the ship as evidence that PMs are a bad position. Yes, there is better money to be made scampering around as the ship flounders, but nobody knows when the ship will sink and if a seat in the liferaft will be available.
Both types of traders are right. It's an issue of risk appetite and timing.
"It's an issue of risk appetite and timing."
And access to inside information.
DIE Euro PIIGS, DIE!
Those of us who've said the EUR & European Union were going to die will soon be vindicated.
Sure, they will cobble together some patch job and proclaim that it represents a "still strong union" of some form or another...
...but it won't, and the world will see right through the hoax.
The EU was preordained to die, as the economic and cultural differences between the highly disparate European Nations are far too great and vast to bridge using any common currency or economic 'union.'
On a more practical level, Germans and, at most, two other solvent EU Member States were not going to see themselves, their children and their grandchildren put into indentured servitude only to support the welfare state model of most EU nations, in an attempt to kick the can for a few more months/years, especially when it's all destined to fail no matter how many financial lives are sacrificed.
When? 10 days?
1000 years?
18 months
NAH, Germany is not afraid of indentured servitude, they know if the eurozone project fails, ahem, when it fails, they will get their debts reset just like the others, which by then will be all members of the EZ!
We all know the zone is not the full EU, I prefer to speculate on what will happen in the rest of the EU when the collapse finally manifests in EZ defaults/breakup. I mean for example, when the euro is history and the nations involved go back to their former currencies which contracts denominated in euro will be honored, which will not, by how much in real terms? What about major players in the EU that never joined the common currency like Great Britain? Do you think they will stand by as the rest of the EU unceremoniously dumps euro obligations and they are stuck honoring theirs in pounds? Not that it would matter much, London is so entangled with continental banking they would fail also no matter what you call their money.
Perhaps that is why Ireland which originally refused to be bailed out finally acquiesced, the knowledge that in a few years the debt would get erased anyway with the reintroduction of the punt.
Many have said they believe that the end of the EZ would also be the end of the EU and a few euro speculators have said why, but I have not read any cogent arguments as to the reasons the former treaty obligations pre Eurozone would not be kept in effect, as to borders and such. The one that was most convincing was about movements of labor which will invade the sounder nations if borders remain open. But when all this happens I think the scope of the depression will make that a moot point.
Then again I am still wondering why they do not fix the problem the way the US did, mark to Tinkerbell accounting, and faux CPI data.
Sovereign defaults have always been clustered together in time. When one country goes others suddenly go. Part of it is almost certainly because the countries who default are more competitive than those who still carry their burdens. And that removes whatever desire to pay that may have remained.
And there will always be some moral high ground to justify the theft. Even the US will default and it will be a proud moment for Americans. It'll be sold as a new beginning where America breaks free of those that kept it in bondage.
Translation: Own some gold and silver.
Then why is the euro still 1.30+? Not too long ago it was less than $1.
Not too long?? 9 years is a long time to me.. What are you 200 years old?
silver surges with gold, right...????
where one goes, the other follows, right..??
Certainly not. What have you been reading to learn this? The gold/silver ratio has varied wildly over the centuries. Sometimes by market forces and other times by the rule of law.
Just yesterday gold dropped by 6% while silver dropped by almost 18%. Six percent is a big move in any market for anything in a single trading day, but 18% is a crash by any definition for anything. It sure meets the definition of a dip as in BTFDs. But, I also think the G20 is getting ready to announce a mind bending vast printing/credit (for bankers and sovereigns) that will in essence devalue the whole 20 nation basket of currencies by something like half, Timmy G did not go to the EU for the fine spas you know. I think they are going to open up the currency wars with the BRICs and OPEC on a level that will absolutely stun all informed observers. In the first moments of this "D day" metals will fall as bankers shed positions, but as reality sets in so will panic buying, maybe even before the end of the trading day of the announcement (could be Monday).
The upshot for you and me and everybody in the G20 nations is a halving of living standards in a single day, and deteriorating from there. Within a week we will be in a real depression that cannot be denied as the current one is being denied. But by god they will claim victory in salvaging the euro and the PIGS. A Pyrrhic victory for certain, but a victory all the same, and in the meanwhile the bankers will still be filthy, revoltingly rich.
Rising dollar screws the FED, the central banksters worst nightmare, so what will they do now to re-pummel the dollar back down?
Elementary, my dear Watson. Print.
You're onto something here. Fast forward 30 days to DOW 9,000 to get your answer....
Just in time for the Obama 2012 campaign to start replinishing those 401k plans .
Its not 2009 the US FED's out of ammo and not printing anymore. Why should they? They can already not print and the only effect is -100 points on the DOW?
No reason to print at all.
Then the downside of printing right now is higher gas costs for your nice election season? Not going to happen, if Ben was going to print and monetize more he would have at FOMC 1, Jackson Hole, or FOMC 2 a couple days ago.
Tag, your it Euro. They can't keep kicking the can if they don't take turns.
Clearly they will. A surging dollar wasn't exactly the game plan.
If Bernanke did something this weekend to pummel the dollar he'd appear desperate and manipulative.
So the pummeling will come later. But you can be certain it will come. This ain't like betting on stocks. It's a rigged market and the outcome is predictable when you know the rules.
Take this opportunity to sell some of your fiat paper for gold. People are paying too much for that paper right now.
Everybody on that lifeboat over there! The one that has less holes than the others!
Forget math, trades, sentiment and do what you believe
Barry disagrees. Guns, Gold and religion are not harvard law reviewed.
Nothing was during his tenure...
Europe stress will remain as long as
1) Greece/Portugal/Ireland have not written down 40-60% of their debt
2) France is not downgraded
3) Italy/Spain run a yearly budget deficit
so this can/will take a few years
Or this could take a few weeks...
Exactly. As far as anyone knows they set up short and pull the rug out now, ensconce their boy Obama as COG president above election in national emergency martial law, seize a few $triilion out of 401K's/pensions....fact is no one knows.
That's why the cash is king crowd is wrong in not having PMs. They can Nah, nah, hah, all they want at PM take downs, and salute the dollar and bonds, but they can't time the collapse. It could sweep them away in one weekend. At some point in this century long story, cash becomes a gambler's position.
'Cash' is only EVER as good as some bankers promise behind it....and gee for some reason I dont trust banskters at all so fiat is the worst 'store of wealth' around to me.
or a couple days...
Still with the last minute DOW pumps to green....pathetic.
they have manipulated everything and its time frame is 30 minutes from a couple of hours
an increase in net exposure measures an increase in how popular a trade is but how do we know if they are short or long ?
A strong dollar sures screw the PROFITS... of big corporations.
Yep, theyre going to have to do something FAST before earnings Q starts again.
Haha its going to be funny when they are all revising their guidance down because of conversion back to USD. I wonder how investors will value that, I'm sure they'll understand...
What happens when it costs more to print paper dollars (ink, electricity, paper, etc.) then the dollars are worth in other fiats and/or gold?
Oh...nevermind....
Print another zerO on every bill
Stamps each dollar with an "R" for Rentendollars
I could've told you pm's were gonna get hammered.....I bought some.
"could've" ... ?
Please, a heads up next time.
urbansurvival.com
he said sell it at the start of the week, and buy it back later in the week
That was you?
I forgive you, just don't do it again, ok?
Sit tight lil' doggie. QE3 is on the way--you'll be back in the money by New Years and have something to celebrate
History doth repeat itself. Fortunately, most here are observant of this truth. This was a wonderous opportunity. The new year will be glorious.
In other News:
Somebody just bought 60 Million shares of BAC!
Mirror news- Someone just sold 60 million shares of BAC.
In Not So Related News - Morgan Stanley Will Not Silence Gasparino With Death Threats.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gasparino-morgan-stanley-will-not-silence...
Ooo! A Morgan Stanley CHICK with the death threats? LOL getting interesting in the high fallutin' Wall St fancy-ass crowd.
Mirror news- Someone just sold 60 million shares of BAC.
Ruh-Roh......................
Sixty million shares sounds like a lot till you realize they have 10.1 billion shares outstanding (in the rain). At $6 per that is a 36 million sell, not to be sneezed at, but also minute next to the 60 billion market cap. Now if you said that 60 million shares were dumped by an INSIDER that would be different, then RUH-ROH would be totally appropriate.
I hate to break your ballsachs but if European (stuff) implodes, that creates a scarcity of EUROs, so the value of the REMAINING Euros goes up not down. Like trimming dead branches off a tree..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RbK8MvIto8&NR=1 Sounds like "Highway Star" no?
As a collector's edition?
When the EU implodes, good luck trying to buy anything with your EUR.
True, once Germany implodes, not before.
Austerity and a scarcity of euro will do wonders for German (export driven) GDP. [/snark]
The problem is that the euro is a fiat currency and history is pretty clear that they will print far faster than the ensuing scarcity.
Once you realize that fiat currencies are not fixed quantities and are actually a form of credit, just another government promise, then you will wonder how you could have so easily been fooled all your life.
I don't know where you got that crack you been smoking but you need a new dealer, cause your brain is fried. The biggest banks in France are going under as you read this. Greece will default very soon--maybe this weekend, next goes the rest of the PIIGS. They will return to their orginal currencies as their citizens are demanding. The Euro is done and the dollar will follow very shortly thereafter.
i think the dollar will win & gold will lose becuase 1. keynes was right about the liquidity trap 2. ben's not as competent as you think he is 3.euro can't be saved
China is only going to bailout one currency and ain't the dollar--they dumped as much as they can. Europe still makes a lot of stuff that Chinese people want and can afford. Americans don't make anything and we have no jobs to buy their cheap junk anymore. China will take a hair cut in the end but not as bad as continuing to deal in dollars. You just keep holding those dollars and I will keep holding my gold and silver bullion.
The only thing keeping the Euro from going to parity in 3,2,1... is the parent company of the ECB, i.e. Peoples Bank of China. Once they pull their bids, it's good night Irene.:) And you can take that to the bank. PS I am also wondering if Turbo Tax Timmy isn't joining the PBofC on the bid. If the USD rallies, it will crush the Bamsters "manufacturing led recovery". And they wouldn't want that to happen now, would they.
Bobby- Are you forgetting about the US Treasury market that is utterly unsustainable? What happens when 30 yr rates skyrocket. To me, that is the biggest risk for the USD.
Hard money assets vs. FRN promises from bureaucrats?
DXY will fall one way or another. We have a max of 11-14 days until its daily cycle top if its right translated as it seems now. Up to then snpees et al will be in the red. Watch gold&silver fly after 27th when we see the real COT nos of the month. If don't, then take real care of 1,584 as the support.
there will be no qe3. ben has walked away. done. plain and simple. he wishes good luck to the politicians as we enter the throes of a deflationary collapse. as the ship sinks, he will be remembered among the future central bank generations as the great one who kept the fiat alive by avoiding hyperinflationary collapse.
Kito, I think you are right. The Wednesday statement reaked of "fear". If he does QE whatever, it will all be symbolic. After all, he is trying to avoid a date with destiny. Not something you want people to remember you by.
People keep forgetting the rumors that Ben will soon be gone, with legal charges following him. Last thing he wants right now is launch ANOTHER unconstitutional monetizing operation.
There's nothing unconstitutional about it.
FRNs are private credit.
People have failed to exercise their constitutional rights since 1913.
He who sleeps on his rights, has none.
There's zero reason to complain about that.
The fed can print a billion $$ and give it to Bernanke if they wanted. It's not illegal. It's their money. They control the supply and do with it as they wish. There is no law or requirement anymore that the fed limit the supply of dollars for your benefit. They do have a mandate regarding stable prices and high employment. That's it. You can't make up other mandates just because it sounds reasonable to rationale people.
There will be QE3 because Americans will beg for it after the markets plunge a little more. Big Ben will step in a save the day one agian--he ain't done yet!!
ALL frauds eventually collapse of their own weight. Faith.......Patience......
And mostly they collapse suddenly. I remember lots of people telling the Enron story would drag on for years and years....when suddenly 1 morning it was all over. Same with Lehman, BSC, etc.
We all know the same facts at this point.
They will print if they have to and can, not print if they can't, and stop kicking the can if not printing forces it.
They will continue to kick the can, until they don't. And woe to the trader who is not properly positioned at that time.
Not exactly. All the debt simply got pushed into the US sovereign debt bubble. Nothing went away. Nothing is over. It's 3 years now and we are still in the early stages of dealing with this.
Not exactly. All the debt simply got pushed into the US sovereign debt bubble. Nothing went away. Nothing is over. It's 3 years now and we are still in the early stages of dealing with this.
So what happens when BAC goes under?
Buy Stocks http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
Because The Fed was buying BAC & C all day long today.
If you believe this is a buying opportunity for stocks---you're a complete fool. We are in a depression and anyone who says it's not is lying to you.
The dollar is the 5th of the 6 major bubbles.. Get out of dollars while you can.
LOL! Before there is hyperinflation...THERE IS ALWAYS DEFLATIONARY PRESSURE.
READ YOUR HISTORY BOOKS, BITCHEZ!
It is no accident that many of the worst periods of hyperinflation are preceded by deflation. In fiat currencies with high levels of government debt, severe cases of deflation cause a loss of confidence in the nation's currency by shrinking the economy and making the government's debt appear increasingly unsustainable. The loss of confidence then causes the flow of money to speed up as individuals become desperate to exchange cash for real goods as fast as possible, producing hyperinflation.
Yep, you are correct.
Money Printing is a result of hyperinflation not a cause of it.
Hyperinflation happens because of the velocity of money increasing.
Knowing this truth however still makes it very hard to swallow, as a pm holder.
Exactly right. Deflation is caused by the market as everyone steps back. Inflation and hyperinflation are caused by the central bank as they rush in to try and fix things and prevent what they falsely believe to be a never ending downward spiral.
You can get a lot for those fiat dollars now. And more to come. Take advantage. Sell them and stash your gold.
XLF probably bottomed today.
A short squeeze is inevitable.
For Kassie's sake, you forget how many WARRANTS are out there from Jamie "I'm not buying them back" Dimon, BAC & C both have 2 sets. Cover w/ warrantz, banksterz bitchez.... plus this-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
PS "You're not holding a gun to my head" is what he really said, meanwhile his stock yesterday traded as low as it did during the week of 4/6/2009 jeez, only 4 weeks after Mr. Kass' "Generational Low" and prescient call on Kudlow's show during the Colonoscopy Period of 2009. PNC is the new JPM, check out 1 min charts, crazeeeee!
All the reserves that went to euros to diversify away from dollars . . . where to now?
The reason the XAU has been underperforming is because everyone knew a day like today was coming, where all the overleveraged anarchists on margin had to be cleaned out. NEM and AU were only down 2% while GLD was completely decimated.
Ratio Traders will probably be thrown into the wood chipper next week if the broad market drives PM stocks up on a short covering rally.
The reason the XAU has been underperforming is because . . .
Actually you have no idea.
This from the guy who said to go all-in at DOW 12,700 for the guaranteed huge runup, and has both had a big PM portfolio, and scoffed at PM's, for 2 years.
Wood Chipper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RbK8MvIto8&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL
There are more bubbles in the financial industry than in my bubble bath.
ALL YOUR EUROS ARE BELONG TO US.
Go read what the Old Master and cohorts have to say................
jsmineset.com
HOLD FIRM
Fundamentals have not changed i keep telling myself. It's still more than I paid for it.. lost 200K in physical in the last two days. Have to dbl down BTFD... Why do I watch these manipulated markets. Need to buy and hold and go to sleep...
longhardbull,
IF you had physical, you have lost nothing, unless you sold it.
Otherwise you musta been playing in the toilet paper again.
And, yes your correct, Fundies are the same, except WORSE.
And there is no reason for them to change, or they would have already used it.
I'm down 40k you must have an awesome stash :) 33au 77ag here. Mike Maloney did say the silver ride was going to be volatile :)
The dollar pops up, and ensuing stock drop correlation is also severed. Something big will snap one of these days, and its not PM's, small sector.
In other words when rumor of a rumor boosts the Teuro, albeit temporarily.
You know what, it sure looks to me like we are seeing the euro go through its death throws.
Short of Frau Kanzlerin Merkel illegally going against [only] last month's German Constitutional Court ruling concerning bailouts and pooling of debt obligations, there's not a damn thing euroland can do to save the euro.
By the way, for our American readers, bailing out the Euro is illegal under EU laws. Just thought you should know where Europe stands right now and how far euroland has already departed from the rule of law - its own laws.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccabBm8TxLI&
Curtis,
By the way, for our American readers, bailing out the Euro is illegal under EU laws. Just thought you should know where Europe stands right now and how far euroland has already departed from the rule of law - its own laws.
We are very familiar with that, as it happens here 24/7/365.
There is no RULE of Law left,except for the elite.
Our Constitution is treated like Toilet Paper.
TGIF Zap
I dunno. W/respect to bailouts, it's fine for the US to help/bail out other countries - we did it with Korea, Mexico, etc, as it's not written in US laws that we can't do that.
But in euroland, the Maastrichty Treaty upon which the euro is founded, specifically states it is illegal for one eurozone country to assume the debts of another eurozone country. It's there in black and white - Article 125 of the Treaty. Moreover, that was the clincher for Germany to give up the D-Mark and try out the Euro...
Still, I don't believe the US government has ventured into illegal actions, per se, since Lehman. At the very least it hasn't ignored our laws out of hand as euroland has been doing with the bailouts of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the bond buying of Italy and Spain's junk paper.
pay no mind iv'e lost mine. re qe^. it is access to the source that the fed has. will they have the self discipline to deny themselves the access? now, is that as funny as the idea of ben bernanke masturbating into a bag of ice cubes or what? oh yea it is! by the way, is that even possible? the fed knows these things i would guess, bloomberg should do a foia request on it. of course the qe^ will flow so long as there is blood in the street the headlines will all concur, it must be done! the distribution part of the easing will never be discussed so long as the insiders are all greased and lubricated with the quantity of liquidity that is easing and rewarding, systemic importance and all ongoing. moral hazard has no shame?
Howdy, folks- QE4 needs NO FUNDING because its the Banksterz Best Friend- BORROWING against UST's yeah!
http://swingforceultra.blogspot.com/2011/09/q-wlarry-almost-time-for-qe4.html
Perfect opportunity to trade this bubble while it lasts. I give it a month tops.
It’s all about the depth of the carry trade in USD and deleveraging the risk trade, we could have a 20 month short covering rally in USD paired with a 20 month global bear market. The emerging markets could collapse quickly in 6 to 12 months, countries like Brazil could be in real turmoil with default risk. Time will tell. The tea party folks seemed to have pulled the fiscal punch bowl for now. When the SPX breaks 900 both parties may agree on stimulus but I doubt if any spending bills will get pass till sp 500 at below 900. We will be importing core inflation for the next 6 mo, Ben stated at his testimony in congress this past summer more QE will only happen if the inflation rate nears 0. It’s going to be awhile till core CPI gets below 1.5% . It’s already in the pipeline
Back the eruo w/ gold. There are enough gold stores in the EU banks to pose a credible store of value bakcing the "NE" ...New Euro.
GSE...Gold/Silver Euro even better.
The move out of the dollar with be breathtaking!
Strong $$ will crush our economy. Forget exporting anything for years to come at these relatively higher prices due to the strong dollar.
I hope ZH does an article on the effects of a "strong dollar" on;
1. exports;
2. unemployment;
3. PMs; and
4. anything else of import the Gurus at ZH can thing of in relation to the dollar.