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Bursting The Permabullish Bubble: 11 Out Of 13 Economic Indicators Have Missed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in early 2011, even as the global economy was at best flatlining, the one goalseeked explanation to justify a levitating stock market (which was rising solely due to the short-term effect of transitory QE2 liquidity), was soaring corporate profitability (which only lasted as long as companies could trim some residual SG&A fat; they have now cut into the bone in terms of layoffs). This time around, with corporate margins having peaked, there had to be some other validation to explain away the "narrative" of the latest bout of central bank infused stock market levitation: it just happened that this time it was once again that old faithful, and always wrong, justification - decoupling. After all one just has to listen to 5 minutes of CNBC to hear it taken for granted that the US economy is doing oh so swimmingly. Here is a newsflash for all the permabulls out there. It isn't. Not only that, but as David Rosenberg highlights, 11 of the 13 most recent economic indicators have missed consensus expectations, and one can demonstrate that the other 2 - car sales and jobs - have been simplistically manipulated into a favorable outcome. So now that the market is turning over, with Europe and China both solidly into contractionary territory, with Corporate profit margins turning over, and with US data missing virtually every print, how long until the permabullish validations all go up in smoke, and the one true source of stock market "nirvana" - cheap money - is once again in high demand from the central planning cabal. In turn, the Chairsatans of the world will do as requested, as they always do, however not with crude (the real one - Brent, not that Cushing-buffered substitate) at $125, and with the risk that Israel may attack Iran any day now, with or without the blessing of the Fed's Class A director.

From David Rosenberg:

It is truly amazing how many people out there believe the economy is improving just because the S&P 500 managed to get to 1,400 this past week. The market doesn't always get it right.

 

But a look at the data flow suggests that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.

 

Much emphasis is being put on the employment data. Outside of that, only auto sales really managed to surpass expectations regarding the U.S. data flow that has been released since the start of the month.

 

Meanwhile, personal income, consumer spending, ISM, net trade, NFIB, IBD/TIPP economic optimism, industrial production, NAHB, housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and now, existing home sales, all came in below consensus estimates. So 11 indicators have missed, just 2 have beat, and supposedly we have some sort of nifty growth spurt going on. Incredible.

Speaking of the "auto sales recovery", we have previously demonstrated that this is purely on the back of yet another record month of channel stuffing by GM. Alas, just as the AOL coasters, pardon AOL OnLine activation CDs, channel stuffing always ends up in catastrophic failure. And this time around we doubt that the US population will have the stomach for yet another bailout of the insolvent automotive company whose crowning post reorganization moment has been the retraction of the Chevy Volt.

As for the other "beat" - jobs: why it is simply a case of applying the wrong seasonal adjustment factor to the months of one of the warmest winters on record.

The current edition of Maclean's runs with this on its front cover: The Year That Winter Died. This is the warmest winter in 65 years and with the least amount of snowfall as well. In fact, going back to 1960, I found a dozen times when it felt a bit like March in February. This past January was warmer than each of the prior two Februaries and four of the past five; January felt like February; February felt like March. And somehow nobody outside of us, the economists at my old shop at Merrill and NY Fed President Dudley have figured this out — how the data have been completely distorted by this weather pattern.

 

We estimate that if we had applied the February seasonal factor to this past January's raw payroll data, and if we had applied the March seasonal factor to the February data, both months would have shown a decline! Instead, the world buys into to the reported data that suggests that payrolls surged 511k in the first two months of 2012 (even better, the Household survey shows +1.28 million ... the best in 12 years!). Sure ... and the Leafs are making the playoffs.

The take home message here is that the redirection narratives (those displacing the true cause of the market ramp: CTRL+P) explaining the market rise have now been disproven. Which means that the magician behind the curtain is about to be exposed, and the only thing that can prevent that is for more printing to distract those who are more than happy to be distracted with yet another 5-10% rise in stocks on the back of nominal currency devaluation.

Because now that the permabullish bubble has popped, woe to the market unless the Consortium of Chairmen does not step right back in, and further 'expound' the already exponential chart of central bank balance sheets...

 

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Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:43 | 2282017 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Bullish!!

Car sales (GM channel stuffing) and BLS (employment farce) are both CONTROLLED by the govvy, so ya.... should be 13/13.

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:45 | 2282025 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bubblicious!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:33 | 2282104 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Green shoots.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:59 | 2282146 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

The Leafs are making the playoffs!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:05 | 2282396 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Please, how NOT?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:38 | 2282444 markmotive
Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:14 | 2282525 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

Print until this whole shit house goes up in flames. I say increase the money supply until the scam can't be hidden any longer; let them eat green backs

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 03:01 | 2282747 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

only 1 economic indicator is important....

 

money supply in the system.

 

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 04:11 | 2282768 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Yep....what does reality matter when you can print money? After all, when you run out of money, only then does "reality hit"....right? Unless, of course, you are a target of those who don't share your value for "money".  Then you're simply dead.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:15 | 2282070 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I assure you, my WIFE is in control of channel stuffing.  I tried to stuff the channel last night and was told "No!"......

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:26 | 2282090 spinone
spinone's picture

Rodger that

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:34 | 2282108 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Thanks for the affirmation spinone.  Today, as I knew, my "other dealer" had no problems accepting more inventory........

I highly suggest having a second dealership as a backup plan.........."backup" being the key word...........

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:22 | 2282196 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Guess I got dinged by a pissed off married woman.  If so, I'm USED TO IT!!!!!  I just happen to be a fan of Bill Clinton.  And given Hillary, well, you can probably understand the situation I'm in.........................

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:17 | 2282312 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Oh dear...someone may need to, hummmm, work more on their technique? Mr Miffed just needs to smile and crook his finger and he's counting ceiling tiles. No, I didn't ding you, post is too sad to ding. Seems like there are lots of frustrated males at ZH. Good grief guys, there's one thing this government hasn't taken from you! Oh wait....my bad.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:48 | 2282374 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

2 words to describe you:

Virgin and naive.................now please go to the Justin Bieber website and enjoy.............

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:15 | 2282526 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Whoa...don't know who Justin bieber is. Being 51 and not watching tv must have left me a bit behind in the times, don't think I'm missing much. Can't say I'm a virgin either...wow total strike out. Well, just got back from the shooting range, gotta clean the Glock and wash up. Better luck next time.

Miffed:-)

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 09:35 | 2283112 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

stupid to call someone else a "virgin" when you're the one who can't get laid

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:10 | 2282170 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Don't worry the Bernake can keep things going forever right? right? I think not.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:44 | 2282235 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

All I know is PCLN is a super buy here at $700 according to CNBS...and they say it's going over $1,000.  Shit, good enough for me...I'm all in balls deep.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:59 | 2282274 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

"...I'm all in balls deep"

Oh really, does your significant other know you're laying the wood to Priceline???????

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:50 | 2282466 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Did these expert economists adjust their monthly data down to reflect an extra selling day in February?  An extra day to buy cars, homes, retail products, ect.....probably not.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:44 | 2282023 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Perma Broke, Bitchez.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:45 | 2282026 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Perma-fried

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:01 | 2282153 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Perma-grin \________/

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:38 | 2282227 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

When the tech bubble had finally popped well and true, and the floor was giving way, what happened?

9/11 happened, followed by an energy grab. Afghanistan first bc its a roadblock on the route to power projection in the ME for Russia and China. Iraq second because they had oil and it was easy.

The Chairsatan will not be allowed to let the eltes be well and truly exposed, the naked emperor. Nope, there is a false flag coming, and it can be seen a mile away. World War 3 is on the docket.

The bankers, corporations, and corrupt politicians are the real TERRORISTS. Not a comfortable thought, but dont worry you are not going to actually DO anything about it, are you?

Very few of you realize we are already at war.

"I pledge to defend the US Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic." Sound familiar? Fuck the cops, politicos, and military for forsaking their oath. They are traitors, with all that word entails.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:42 | 2282456 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Oath Keepers

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:29 | 2282549 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Oh yeah, the oath keepers have made a real difference....

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:52 | 2282032 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Tax season is a boon in the car business.  You can't get financing?  Then you scrape together whatever you can find, wait for your tax refund and then grab the best deal you can find.  This also works for people who can afford financing, but not a down payment.  After May, the salesmen are back to having to earn their commissions.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:15 | 2282069 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Recently I have been in the market to purchase a used pick up for my hobby farm.  So after scouring the classifieds, craigs list and determining that all the private sellers were buried in their vehicles, I started looking at used inventory at dealerships.  I am here to tell you, they are choke full.  GM was running a deal here in the mid-west on pick-up trucks 0% for 72 months, also I think there was some cash back too. Who in their right mind would finace a vehicle for 6 years?  Good Grief.  I asked the salesman if the new trucks were moving, he said, no not really because of gas prices.  Most folks were bringing in their 4 door trucks, and trying to trade down, but they couldn't do those deals because the margin was not in the new smaller cars.  Most of the used trucks that I inquired about were traded in on a smaller vehicle.

Gas prices are biting, and all folks are buried in the cash for clunker units.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:25 | 2282087 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ReallySparky

I'm in Louisiana/Deep South.  We just had our best February ever for car sales, but our economy does not track the broader American economy and our entire local economy gets a huge boost from the EITC and tax refunds in general (the average person really appreciates Uncle Sam's forced savings).  For instance, we had a porter at the wash rack who walked off the job becuase he got an ~$8000 tax refund check.  That will buy you a lot of Mad Dog 20/20.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:16 | 2282411 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

Car sales are very dependent on location.

 

Just to the north of you we sold 35% more new cars YOY for the month of February.  That is a pretty good sign. 

Of course, 4 of the 5 top sellers were full size american pick up trucks, with the camry coming in 3rd.  I don't think fuel prices took any sales away last month, but it will be another 3 weeks until I see March numbers.

Fuel prices sure haven't affected used prices in the slightest.  In Summer 08 I purchased a 06 Dodge 2500 diesel with 20k miles on it for $20k.  I'm about to sell it with 120k and a couple dings for $15k.  I'm seeing a few 07-09 trucks asking within $5k of new pricing for that year model.  I'm friends with a local GM of a honda dealer.  He cannot get good used cars for his lot without paying well over loan value.  His new cars sales have been pretty average this winter.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:32 | 2282103 infinity8
infinity8's picture

hobby farm? you gotta splain that for me.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:42 | 2282117 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Farming for fun, for excercise, for good food, and maybe to ride ol' thunder for an hour a week.

Profit is NOT part of this plan. Ask me how I know.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:07 | 2282166 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Well that explains it.........I've been hobby investing.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:10 | 2282612 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That makes my whole life a freakin' hobby.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:38 | 2282447 Luffk73
Luffk73's picture

If your looking at a used GM truck, have the brake lines checked. The brake lines on my 2003 Sierra have to be replaced because they rusted away.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:51 | 2282034 BORT
BORT's picture
New Moon (GMT) Last:

7 hrs and 13 mins ago

 

Just saying

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:53 | 2282036 quidam
quidam's picture

Timothy Geithner-

 "We are encouraged that GM has repaid its debt well ahead of schedule and confident that the company is on a strong path to viability."

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:19 | 2282317 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Timmy just said GM is not a viable company. Interesting.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:53 | 2282037 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

What about that secret email weeks back saying that Greece will default on the 24th?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:23 | 2282325 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

If it's secret how do you know about it?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:53 | 2282038 absente reo
absente reo's picture

The SPX is probably most highly correlated with jobless claims.  I believe the index will follow jobless claims.  As long as they trend lower, SPX will trend higher.

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:54 | 2282039 mr_T
mr_T's picture

Silly rabbits have you not learnt anything these last 3 years... fundos don't matter. Recovery is hat trick away....QE3 biachezzz...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:02 | 2282050 kito
kito's picture

qe3 is a great mantra......a bit overused already....perhaps you can try ohmmmmmmmmm................

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:23 | 2282085 mr_T
mr_T's picture

Ohmmm? WTF you learn that at some boys club ashram?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:22 | 2282536 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I like ohmmmmmmmmm's law.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:06 | 2282055 noob
noob's picture

Trifectalicious!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:04 | 2282161 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

They're building a THIRD Queen Elizabeth?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:12 | 2282402 noob
noob's picture

dirty bird

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:55 | 2282042 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

We estimate that if we had applied the February seasonal factor to this past January's raw payroll data, and if we had applied the March seasonal factor to the February data, both months would have shown a decline!

______

If this is the case, can you explain when the jobs numbers will be bad? Since we are taking jobs from the future due to warm winter, when will we see the bad numbers?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:21 | 2282193 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I have been focused on this seasonality story for some time.

I am not confident it plays out as evidence of near term damage to the numbers.  Case in point, New Claims.  Those are weekly.  They are seasonally adjusted, and it's late March.  We should be seeing seaonality advantages diluting by now, but the numbers don't seem bad.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:30 | 2282206 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Published numbers will never be bad, relative to the official interpretation.

Reality on the other hand..... is in some other galaxy, drifting away at 1000 km/s.

For example, instead of tortured "jobless numbers"... how about looking at all gov expenses towards people unable to sustain themselves with their income..... in gold. (Hint: Don't calculate it, if it is late in the night, and you're scared of monsters).

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:56 | 2282043 candyman
candyman's picture

Those green shoots again? Ugh!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 18:57 | 2282045 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

beggar's dozen!

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:12 | 2282615 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

11 is called the banker's dozen.  No, really.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:00 | 2282048 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Facts, fundamentals? Who needs those when you have the central bank to prop everything up?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:01 | 2282049 MunX
MunX's picture

All eyes on Monday morning. I think I got time for one more trip down the rabbit hole... then the next few years are all business.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:11 | 2282059 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Saw a Lexus salesman pal this morning. He was putting sales flyers on cars coming in for maintenance, which is not normal. Tried to sell me the '13 GS, which is normal. He said sales fell off a cliff Feb and Mar, which is not normal. Usually he says units are flying off the lot no matter what. And tax season is like Xmas for the car guys. A gigantic tell....!!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:08 | 2282063 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

We are so screwed.  I really don't want my Parent's to move in with me when their pension, SS check and IRA all become worthless.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:18 | 2282077 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

You will need them then as long as they can shoot.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:42 | 2282115 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Marry a woman they don't approve of.

If they move in anyway just repeat this mantra over and over:

My rules, My house...

My rules, My house...

My rules, My house...

[out loud, dummy]

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:09 | 2282168 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Sign them up for ObamaCare. Problem solved.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:36 | 2282223 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I don't think that will happen for a few years from now. We'll probably be hit with a bout of deflation first.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:45 | 2282237 mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

Why not move in with your parents instead?  That'll shut 'em up!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:12 | 2282065 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Someone should tell the Conference board.  Their 'new and improved' leading economic indicators says the economy will improve until summer.

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=20248

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:16 | 2282072 chump666
chump666's picture

Boom!  Market is trying to correct now

anyways can Congress grow some f*cking testicles and get rid of Bernanke.  He is insane.  "Low rates didn't push up oil prices."  Yes of course not, just the massive money supply, swap lines and covert QE3 pumps.

ECB and the Fed should be sent to a Ebola invested island somewhere

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:47 | 2282240 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I've invested in Ebola - it's catching!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:58 | 2282272 chump666
chump666's picture

lol. 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:29 | 2282428 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Well, a significant part of what he's doing is allowing them to avoid making any hard decisions like actual men should when a disaster's about to hit. So, no, I don't think they'll get rid of the man who makes astounding debt casually possible in the short term. If they had the balls to do that they would have the balls to cut spending. They don't.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:35 | 2283312 ZT-short
ZT-short's picture

Do they have an ETF for Ebola?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:29 | 2282095 spinone
spinone's picture

No matter how much fiat they try to bury it under, the market will assert itself.  I don't know when, but it will.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:34 | 2282098 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

a bubble economy to match the bubbled waist lines of egotistical bubble headed consumer driven Americans..

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:47 | 2282128 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Possibly.  But how about we acknowledge reality for a change?  Here's one from Rasputin over on wallstreetbear.com

Heh, "Zero Bound Ben" will indeed go down as THE greatest central banking Pigman in history. 

For, not only did he and his buddies at the Fedge (and all the other central banks, too!) stop "The Great Disintegration" dead in its tracks... 

Not only did he manage to turn the stock markets around from totally crashing to totally skying... 

Not only did he morph the Fed into the Fedge, the largest, most powerful hedge fund in the world... 

But now he has gone on the offensive, touring the country like some kind of rock star, indoctrinating a whole new generation of fiatsco-worshipers. 

By the way, were you aware that, in order to even be INVITED to this popular lecture, the students had to write an essay extolling the virtues of the Fedge? 

Well, it's true. 

(Ras Conclusion): And this is why there is ZERO, ZIP, NADA hope of ever returning to a gold standard, outlawing fractional reserve lending, or--especially--abolishing central banking. 

Because the Fedge is too powerful, too smart, too pro-active, and the GUMS are too stupid, too willing to be enslaved to the Ponzi Pyramid of Debt and Derivatives Death, and the GHSers/SHSers are all hunkered down in their bunkers, isolated and too paranoid to band together to change the system. 

We're scroomed. 

Scroomed to endless cycles of "Infinite Fiat/Wash, Rinse, Repeat". 

http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=96827&post=352314 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:18 | 2282181 Melin
Melin's picture

+1   Except for the conclusion. 

It seems like Ron Paul's End the Fed campaign has young people quite attracted because they know it's their futures at stake.  They may represent the first generation in generations that understands the connection between sound money and liberty.  

I think the next generation will have a far more liberty-focused dialogue than our current crop of "adults" and "representatives."

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:38 | 2282229 Rynak
Rynak's picture

RP may have young people getting that something is going wrong, BUT: What percentage of them will consider non-political means, after political mechanisms exculde them?

This is an open question... i'm not implying something either way. It is (relativitly) easy to donate to someone, vote for somone, heck even spread the word.... granted, all of this is very noble in an utopian fair society.... but how many will stand up, if the supposed "fair" and "proper" way turns out to be fake?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:16 | 2282304 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Bottom-line is young people today were born into the Empire.  The concept of "limited government" means about as much to them as 1970's Ukranian history or what kind of underwear the Shakers wore.

It's not until.gov starts taking away people in the dead of the night that future generations will care.  On paper, they should care now.  But real life doesn't = on paper.  I learned that the hard way having studied economics in school but seeing how people live in the real world.  LOL

Don't fight human nature and don't fight the Fedge.  

In the meantime, if anyone wants to update the "world's most accurate encyclopedia" to note what kind of underwear the Shakers wore, that would be a more productive way to spend your Thursday night.  Was it sexy thongs or grandma-panties?  LOL again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shakers

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:58 | 2282271 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The fledge will destroy itself with it's own hubris.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:28 | 2282337 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

We'll never return to a gold standard because there isn't enough gold to support the currency. An oil standard, now that could work...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:32 | 2282348 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

There's enough of anything to support a ____ standard.  I have been a long-time suporter of a Family Ties DVD standard.  But I am a lone voice in the wilderness, not unlike the goldbugz.  LOL

C'mon now "real estate speculator".  You are better than that.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:14 | 2282408 streetcrawler
streetcrawler's picture

I'm praying like hell we go back to the Beanie Baby standard. Those were the gold years.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:19 | 2282416 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Nice joke.

How about we end on a serious note - buy physical.  You still can so you should do.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:31 | 2282552 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I'm looking for low maintenance, low mileage, and will stay bought.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:30 | 2282099 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Just think...How many of us would be in the camp of "economy is improving" if not for MY MAIN MAN?

Now, tell me you can find a more dedicated, reliable source!...After all, he sleeps with one eye open, ear to the wind and an nostril, sampling the air, AT ALL TIMES!!

 

"Tyler Durden", whomever, you are...DON'T GO NOWHERE!! 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 19:57 | 2282141 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Today was the bottom, hope you bought the dip

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:27 | 2282205 booboo
booboo's picture

well then, I guess all them insider sellers are going to get hosed when they have to buy back their own stock at super duper extrafrajadotious astrocomical prices.

"Ben you are a go with throttle up"

"Roger that, go with thrott...................................................................

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:41 | 2282347 Conman
Conman's picture

Bottom of jobless claims? Claims to the sky from here.

 

1900 jobs cut at t-mobile usa

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/22/t-mobile-layoffs-2012_n_1373793...

Briggs & Stratton Co says it's laying off 210 employees from its Poplar Bluff, Mo., plant\

http://www.jsonline.com/business/briggs-to-lay-off-210-employees-in-miss...

hp restructuing - mas layoffs to come

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230463640457729524072303455...

11,700 teacher layoof in LA

http://www.neontommy.com/news/2012/03/schools-11700-teacher-layoffs-los-...

American airlines layying off 600

http://www.chicagotribune.com/site/newspaper/business/ct-biz-0322-eagle-...

my fav - bloomberg tv laying off

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/bloomberg-tv-cuts-30-staffers-adds-d...

bank of america still in process if laying off 30,000

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/21/us-bankofamerica-jobcuts-idUSB...

Monster - yes the job searching website laying off 400

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-monster-strategy-idUSBRE82L...

 

And this is just from todays news! Oh yeah, great economy we got.

 

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:00 | 2282152 q99x2
q99x2's picture

In the province of the mind, what one believes to be true either is true or becomes true—within certain limits—to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended.

--John C. Lilly

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:19 | 2282182 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Did I miss something but if I recall every one of the Obaoma media outlets have been on the news over the past few months telling this country we are in a "recovery".  In fact, Mr. Campaigner himself was out tell the people that things have turned the corner.  Maybe someone can answer because I dont understand this anymore, at what point in time do the Republicans call this man to the carpet to tell the truth?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:28 | 2282209 Melin
Melin's picture

Seriously?

The Republicans are far too busy helping the media make them look like rabid mysogynists to concern themselves with trivial matters.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:51 | 2282255 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Really.  The first and most elementary level to achieve is the knowledge that between Rethuglican and Demoncrat, there ain't no substantive difference. Obama is the best friend Wall Street ever had - are you kidding me?

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:19 | 2282790 r00t61
r00t61's picture

I have found that using the term "Demopublicans" is a short and easy way to get the conversation going about how the two parties are the same.

It's short and catchy and sticks in their minds.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:32 | 2282346 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

"...at what point in time do the Republicans call this man to the carpet to tell the truth?"

Some R's have tried, including Ron Paul. The media simply gives them no coverage. The media are lapdogs for Obama.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:18 | 2282186 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I don't believe them damn gummit numbers.  Maybe the economy's really boomin for real.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:19 | 2282190 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Really, like where in Istambul?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:52 | 2282472 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I heard it's going to be booming in Tehran pretty soon, but that might be the shrapnel-filled thunderheads....

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:24 | 2282201 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Apple has learnt none of you nothin' ? "if the product...." think of Ford...a rock star design for a thing called "the F150" and the company has enough borrowing authority not to go under. Too much abstraction. "tell me what you really hate" first...then at least I'll think you're not just blowin smoke up the world's behind.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:33 | 2282218 Chartist
Chartist's picture

And, a rally that 4 out of 5 zero hedge writers missed as well.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:52 | 2282261 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Correct, but the game is not over.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:13 | 2282305 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Chartist

Missed? Rallys are made these days. If you know one is going to be made you can call it. Not many here at ZH have the feds inside info however. In spite of 11/13 misses we could still have a rally..if Ben sez so. We no longer have a market. The idea of predicting anything up or down is like betting on red or black...except that the future is known by a select few.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:36 | 2282225 finn0123
finn0123's picture

Agree with the sentiment, but can't say I like the idea of economists missing their magic number as an indicator of economic growth.  Seems to better reflect the state of the "profession."

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:42 | 2282233 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

If they are concerned about confidence now, just wait.  I really think it's finally caught up to them.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:43 | 2282234 SpaDe
SpaDe's picture

Long bullets, guns, PM's, and non perishables. Short everything paper.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:54 | 2282263 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think preppers are keeping the economy alive.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:56 | 2282480 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I'm a prepper he's a prepper she's a prepper wouldn't you like to be a prepper too?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:15 | 2282310 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Do NOT forget canned bacon!!! I laughrf too until I tried it. It will be more sought after than Cuban cigars and VSOP.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 09:41 | 2283130 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

what brand do you recommend? I've been eyeing the CMMG tactical bacon

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 20:45 | 2282241 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

BTW im wondering if we are at the point where instead of everything being "better than expected" it will turn to "worse than expected"?  I just don't see how they can bullshit anyone else into this market unless it's total liquidity purchases from our list of favorite assholes.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:01 | 2282278 GCT
GCT's picture

I think the rally is being funded by the fed Chartist.  They want this dumb ole man to hop back in.  I made more investing in commodities then I would have made to date with this rally.  I will be honest I am afraid to jump back into the markets and see it as topping out for now.  Of course I am not an economist or a savy investors, but I did no well amongst all the turmoil last year.

We can all call each other names or how some authors here missed the call, but I can do the same thing for almost all sites and the main stream media.  Hell I wanted to invest 100k in BAC when it was down to 3.73 the day before buffett went in.  Not on fundamentals but because based on my research and from this site and alot of others the Fed would never let BAC fail.  I would have tripled my money almost now but my wife and broker talked me out of it.  I missed a call and yes can kick myself in the ass for not doing it.  But that is life i missed the fucking call and I am sure you have missed them as well.  Alot of what goes on here at ZH in my mind is exposing the system for what it is.

I do not see this rally as a real rally.  76% of corporate profits right now are from government spending.  What happens when the fed stop spending?  We are basically toast so to me this is not a rally just more governement spending to support corporate profits.  I maybe seeing this wrong as I am doing my best to learn but I can see bullshit when it is in front of me.  So I am out of the market and as you look all over te world something bad is going to happen.  I do not think it will be this year but after the elections all hell may just break loose.  If I miss I am happy but will never call someone stupid because they warned someone.  I will call someone stupid when they just keep spouting the party line and they are lieing and screwing over innocent people.  This rally is to try and get people like me back into the market and it will not work this time.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:18 | 2282315 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

GCT

that is funny: when the fed stop spending

hilarious

I don't think that is possible is it?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:39 | 2282360 GCT
GCT's picture

lol point well made lasvegas.  But at some point in time do you not think they are going to have to cut back on spending.  I am still learning!  Trying to figure it all out.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:01 | 2282279 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

So 13 of 13 Economic Indicators have missed.

 

Good thing there are (to name a few) alternatives to help one from having an ETrade Baby Shocked Face.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

http://theinternationalforecaster.com/index.php

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.php

http://www.leap2020.eu/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://globalresearch.ca/

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:09 | 2282299 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

Time to buy

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:21 | 2282321 crawl
crawl's picture

I get what David is writing.  The CBs probably can't stop themselves from printing.  Or if there is one bad day in the markets (ie. 1% downside), I'm sure the screams for Fed to do something about it will be very loud.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:25 | 2282330 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

I have an idea!

Let's connect the dots!

Jobs are DECLINING, not Increasing!

Think about this,  as of 03/19/2012, NEW JOBS WERE 227,000 (LAST WEEK),

If it's true that first-time unemployment claims on 03/23/2012 were 355,000, a decrease — then we have a BIG problem . . .

Both are weekly numbers, are they not? I calculate that 128,000 jobs were lost in that 1 week. THIS is can not be good news.

If you could show any period in the last 2 years where there was a net increase in jobs, (after the usual 2 month re-statements),

That would be GREAT news!

I really hope that my simple extrapolation to 6,650,000 jobs lost in the last 52 weeks is wrong!


Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:37 | 2282355 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Unless I'm mistaken, the new jobs numbers are monthly numbers, while initial claims are weekly. Much worse. This has baffled me for a while now. The unemployment number goes down, while we have a net loss of more than a million jobs a month. If someone can explain this, I'd love to hear it.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 21:40 | 2282359 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Sue whoever says they educated you. You have a great case.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:07 | 2282398 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Another bullish indicator. Clearly:

 

Detroit bond rating downgraded for second time this week

 

The ratings downgrade has "triggered a termination event" regarding its swap agreements related to pension obligations that requires the city to pay $50 million each year plus interest on the unpaid balance for the next seven years, the report states.

If an emergency manager is put in place, Detroit faces a potential immediate payment equal to up to a third of its fiscal 2012 general fund budget, the report says.

Now that California has gone the way of Greece, the rot is spreading across the fruited plain.

 

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:11 | 2282400 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

test

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:16 | 2282410 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Hahahahahahahahahahahahah...behold my new avatar and despair , suckerz .

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:14 | 2282405 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

How can this be bearish?  the government will just give the corrupt automakers more free money.  more money means more inflation means higher equities! YAY!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:47 | 2282426 Muppet
Muppet's picture

Fascinating this year is the wide-open cash that families are rushing in droves to get...  by using their kids.     Because re-fi's and home-equity loans are not possible, families that need continued life-style spending, are flocking to the one wide-open source for easy unsecured cash.... student loans.   The features are awesome and families are not missing this so easy play: 

First, families needing cash can send their kids to school where student loans cover the costs of the child.... reducing the family burden significantly ("one less mouth to feed").     Just gotta say "we just can't afford you at home anymore honey; you need to go to school".   This alone saves a bundle to spend elsewhere.

Second, any money that parents had previously held for education can now be raided.  Oh yeah!  Cash in those savings bonds from grama... bonus!

Third and best of all,  parents don't have to pay it back!   Its the kids problem.   Extend and Pretend bitchez!!!    Families learning from our Government that you don't have to pay debt, just get someone else to worry about it.

Far better than a re-fi or a mortgage.   Wide open and unsecured cash.   No wonder that about a trillion dollars of new student loans have occurred in the past few years.   Who says Americans are not the smartest consumers in the world?   Where's there's a will and an unplugged hole, then there is a way.   Its too good to pass up.

PS: first post

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:17 | 2282457 gnomon
gnomon's picture
  1. The Fed will punch a hole in the bottom of this garbage scow of an economy only when it completely suits their purposes.  There is an endgame.  They just have not seen the perfect endgame present itself yet. Their ducks are not quite in a row.  Limitless funny money means they have all of the time in the world.

We will never see the Sucker Punch coming.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:50 | 2282468 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

 I hereby nominate the LA times for today's permabulliciousness prize for their assertion that gas prices are rising because the economy is good.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas-economy-20120323,0,7347982.story

It's the Demand, bitchez!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 22:56 | 2282481 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Perma-bull___ prize?

Cool sn. I almost went w/Mitch Cumstein--almost.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 02:47 | 2282734 StockMarketBott...
StockMarketBottom.com's picture

How to Identify a Stock Market Bottom

http://stockmarketbottom.com

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 04:28 | 2282775 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

The Chairsatan says its your fault. the households are not spending the money they (do not) have so you chairsatan worshipers need to get out and help .

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-23/bernanke-says-higher-consumer-spending-need-to-sustain-growth.html

Bernanke Sees Need for Higher Household Spending to Fuel Growth Good luck on that Butt boy

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 04:36 | 2282777 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

One keyword for you Bennie > JOBS otherwise known as Work.That would truly help your sick agenda Chumpfuck

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:11 | 2282786 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

I'm waiting to see how the inventory is winding down.

http://www.cnhedge.com

http://www.jinrongbaike.com

 

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:17 | 2282789 mrmic2027
mrmic2027's picture

What's a chevy Volt??

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