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Busy Economic Day Ahead
While volume today will be rather abysmal with virtually everyone now gone, the robots will be quite busy kneejerking themselves to a variety of economic reports, starting with the final Q3 GDP revision, consumer sentiment, index of leading indicators and ending with FHFA. On the political front it is unclear if there is any progress to the payroll tax extension negotiations, which has huge implications for if not the Q1 market, then definitely economy.
8:30: GDP (Q3-3rd estimate): Downward revisions? Consensus expectations are for an unchanged Q3 GDP estimate of 2.0% (annualized). There is some possible downside risk to this forecast due to weakness in a measure of healthcare consumption, which will be incorporated into the GDP figures in this round of revisions. A downward revision to Q3 consumer spending could have negative implications for tracking estimates of Q4 GDP.
GDP: Consensus: +2.0%; Last (Q3-2nd estimate) +2.0%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of December 17): Bounce back? Initial jobless claims have fallen by a striking 38k over the last two weeks. Goldman thinks most of the latest decline reflects a real improvement in the labor market, some payback is possible following a steep drop. Consensus forecasts expect an increase to 380,000 this week.
Consensus: 380,000; Last: 366,000.
9:55: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (December final): Another increase. The Rasmussen daily measure of consumer confidence continued to pickup through mid-December, suggesting another likely increase in the index of consumer sentiment.
Consensus: 68.0; Last: 67.7 (Dec prelim).
10:00: Index of leading indicators (November): Available components of the index of leading indicators point to a small increase, with higher stock prices and consumer sentiment offsetting declines in the manufacturing workweek and the ISM vendor performance index.
Consensus: +0.3%; Last +0.9%.
10:00: FHFA House Price Index (October): Small gain? This index—which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages—increased in five of the last six months. The consensus expects another small gain in October
Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.9%.
Source: GS
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all will beat by 2.5% as in the 25th of december
Obama/Bernank: "WINNING!!"
ot: did anyone hear the panic in bankster shill / x-sec crook Arthur Levitt's voice on BLoomberg radio just now ? These guys are in freaking full on panic mode lmao !!! The more they attack him the better he does in the polls. Please keep the attacks coming bitches!!!
I heard it. It's being discussed in the Barclays article. Ugly stuff about to begin.
Well at least we have solid housing numbers to support our assessment of the economy.
Plenty of bubbly for the holidays.
And here are numbers and charts. Jobless claims are huge (maybe just seasonal) but GDP and Personal Consuption growth sucked.
Bernanke’s Plea to Consume (Not Save) and the Conflicting Economic News: The Good, The Not-So-Good and The Expected (Housing)http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/bernankes-plea-to-con...
Lead picture from Drudge...Obama delivering pizza to working folks to demonstrate the benefits of cutting the payroll tax that funds social security for the elderly to pay for pizza for the working poor. No cost, no pain. Just cut taxes and increase spending and run larger deficits. This is the ideal model for the USA but not for Itatly.
"Low volume day" 99 million people who don't know who Tyler Durden is have already bought BAC stock today, driving the price up. For shame, so many people who don't know the one person who knows the real truth; BAC will go to zero soon! Beware, ye un-believers! Disclosure; long BAC from $5.07 @two to one margin.
Lookin at gold trade today, what good are these statistics and numbers? News need segregation into fake and real.
The government will manipulate the numbers so much that all economic indicators will be looking up. The purpose is of course to get people to go all out with the holiday shopping season.
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