This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

On Buying The Commodity Dip

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Gold, Silver, and Oil down quite considerably since the second LTRO from the ECB ended the immediate elevations in global central bank stocks and flows and now all marginally positive/negative year-todate, the question of the day is whether this is a dip to be bought or a liquidation to be sold into. Sean Corrigan, of Diapason Commodities, provides some guidance:

At this uncertain juncture, to use commodities primarily as a means of obtaining an element of inflation protection, of owning a call option on monetary and fiscal stupidity, seems to be the more pressing imperative, especially since it is one which also offers a growth kicker in a manner which more traditional instruments - such as index-linked bonds - certainly cannot hope to approximate given the ruinously negative real yields which attach to them in this Looking Glass world of deliberately falsified interest rates.

 

Each successive resort to the printing press may well bring less and less material relief to a world still trying to maintain the pretence that the pre-Crash reckoning of prosperity was a sound one and still striving therefore to return valuations to those that prevailed in that particular vision of El Dorado, but the repeated recourse to inflationism will teach people that they should seek out ways of protecting themselves from its malign effects.

 

As they do so, they will eventually act upon their newfound understanding and then, instead of assuaging the fever as they are today by holding money, they will begin to aggravate it by accelerating their purchases and building up their precautionary stocks of goods. It is against the dawn of that evil day, as much as for any other reason, that holders of predominantly financial assets should contemplate the need to buttress their existing investment framework with a few solid girders of good, hard commodities.

 

In other words: Nothing Has Changed; Central Banks have only one trick which they will use when necessary; normal assets will waver in risk-on/risk-off mode because of that; commodities offer protection from the profligacy with an upside growth cover.

Gold, Silver, and Oil post March 2009 lows...

 

and as far as those global REAL interest rates (courtesy of Gresham's Law):

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:16 | 2407483 5880
5880's picture

Deflation before inflation

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:19 | 2407496 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Yep, its gonna hurt too. (For those who have no clue)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:25 | 2407527 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Clue?  I love Clue.  It was Professor Bernanke in the Conservatory with the Printing Press.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:31 | 2407559 CH1
CH1's picture

Keep stacking.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:34 | 2407564 CPL
CPL's picture

And there is the RSI flip.

 

...then off like a no volume rocket to somewhere.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:47 | 2407624 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

 

 

 

....................................................I buy cash

 

 

 

:-)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:54 | 2407660 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

No, you really don't. You may exchange your labor or an asset for cash.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:07 | 2407718 knukles
knukles's picture

Just ya'll fuckin' wait.
It's gonna get real hard, nasty and downright messy.
Austerity bites.
We're locked into a credibility trap that manifests itself as a liquidity trap.
The CB's have the only option at hand (supposedly) since TPTB will not reform the system.
Meaning....
In the not too distant future, like pretty damned soon, the data world wide is gonna turn to shit and the CB's announce another round of QE whateverthefuck.
Then the Commodity Complex will once again, Rise to The Liquidity and Inflations Expectations Occasion.

Nothing has changed.
Nobody cares.
It's all Ex Cathedra Pabulum and Horse Shit
So why would anybody expect anything different from the same madness?

Enjoy whatchu got while you gots it.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:37 | 2407818 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Ahh but something has changed..  That something is Japan and is/was Fukushima.  As a result Japan has shut off its Nuke Plants. 

They're going to be buying Oil by the tanker load to keep the lights on..  That, with hints of QE is change..

and lots of it..

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:54 | 2408570 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Hmmm, maybe:

oil consumption in japan jan 2011: 4.3 mbpd
oil consumption in japan in feb 2012: 5.1 mbpd
oil consumption in US jan 2011: 18.7 mbpd

I see a 25% increase, still about 25% of US consumption. I think a recession in Europe and US would negate the effects of Fukushima on oil consumption, which is why oil dropped. Combined with the surge in natural gas in the US, going forward I see oil going down.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 22:21 | 2408804 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

donsluck, how far do you expect oil to drop, and how long do you believe it will remain down?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:00 | 2407694 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Buy it cheap.

Stack it deep.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:52 | 2407913 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Another big comeback today

We are just flies on their windshield

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:35 | 2407831 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ CH1,

+ 1

Out of town bearing made a special trip to the bank to fund his BTFD just today.  I wonder if TSA will want to grope my coins...?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:12 | 2407738 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

PRICELESS!!!   SERFS UP AMERICA!!!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 08:02 | 2409461 PrintingPress
PrintingPress's picture

I don't run by myself. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:15 | 2407746 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

PLeas

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:39 | 2407577 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Ok Mish...Or is that Prechter...

How did that DOW short go over the last 3 years ?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:50 | 2407637 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

How did that DOW short go over the last 3 years ?

**********

It went about as well as the long real-estate trade-

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:29 | 2415115 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

went pretty good shorting dow as long as you saw the obvious - short at peaks - 2011-7-06 spy price curvatures 01 | goldpricemodel

dow price prediction ivars zerohedge tfmetals adjusted by goldpricemodel

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:43 | 2408451 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Deflation before inflation

Totally what we have said here time and again,I have fully expected to lose fiat worth on PM's when we got to this point.

And, when it really hits in earnest, the prices will drop even more.And ask me if I care, NO.

I did not purchase my first once, with any intent of making a profit,I am doing this strictly to retain value.(somethng fiat can never do, esp over time).And any more I may purchase will be for the same reason, preservation of capitol,v.s. paper.(insurance)

Because the way I see it is the longer they dick with the paper world,its like they are trying to push a fricken rope............ the more stacking WE all can do.

And I will do what I always do, BTD,if it merits it, and keep the bulk of my powder dry and possibly get the chance to back up the truck.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:17 | 2407488 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Would someone please translate the Sean Corrigan quote: i don't get the language.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:21 | 2407511 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

BTFD

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:36 | 2407844 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Did.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:21 | 2407513 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Don't sell unless you have to.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:33 | 2407563 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

ok, thanks

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:22 | 2407515 JustanEmotion
JustanEmotion's picture

Are you just trolling?

it can be summed up in two words. impending hyper-inflation

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:23 | 2407522 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Buy real stuff, becuase inflation be a come'n.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:20 | 2407499 rickadoh
rickadoh's picture

My precious......come to papa....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:23 | 2407514 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Chinese say dog soup is delicious.

Wait...what are you talking about? :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCSZfmbFJyQ

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:20 | 2407503 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A little deflation is the cover Ben needs to print. It's all coming together as planned.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:26 | 2407539 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I so love it when things come together as planned.

Holding physical Silver and Gold? Check. Plenty of food and ammo? Check.

Bring it on asswipes.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:32 | 2407560 niktamere
niktamere's picture

guns will run dry eventually

youre toast, Cog.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:39 | 2407576 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That's Mister Cog to you buster.   :)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:48 | 2407619 Manthong
Manthong's picture

If you are considering running out of ammo before you commandeer more, you need to revamp your tactical plan. : D

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:55 | 2407667 EBR MOD 0
EBR MOD 0's picture

I don't own any 40s ...yet. I'll just add some when the boyz in black show. Should be some toyz around for pick up.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:07 | 2407721 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I got your back Mr Cog, just head down the valley and I'll be there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma09CIqapwk

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:22 | 2407773 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They just don't sing them like they used to.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:41 | 2407587 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Run dry?! Maybe ammo...not guns, but there is always the command "fix bayonets" for that day.

I will still protect my beans, bandaids and stack when the bullets run out. Ummm dont forget the diesel and ammonium nitrate.......spectacular to say the least.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2407600 niktamere
niktamere's picture

All Im saying is get familiar with HTH..

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:56 | 2407669 Upswaller
Upswaller's picture

You've never heard of re-loading, have you?   

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:34 | 2407833 AL_SWEARENGEN
AL_SWEARENGEN's picture

Guns do run dry. Which is why you want to own a battle ready sword, short sword, or battle axe as part of your survival pack. Don't fall for a cheap replica that will break in half when you go to use it. $500 and up should get you a quality piece of steel that in trained hands is as effective as any small arms close range. Find a sword smith and get something right for you, they still exist if you look for them.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:21 | 2408397 niktamere
niktamere's picture

Bingo. Maybe keeping them blind would have been best

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 07:40 | 2409435 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Swords and guns vs drones.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 20:02 | 2408580 DosZap
DosZap's picture

niktamere

guns will run dry eventually

you're toast, Cog.

No, guns will never run dry,nor will ammo.

Reason, everyone against you has them, all you have to do is take theirs, and their ammo.............supply possibly endless.Just make sure you are not the target first.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:18 | 2414477 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

you can make & find re-loads. You can also use crossbows.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:40 | 2407581 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Ah, don't forget toilet paper ... wait, I guess you weren't talking about TP.  Sorry.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:45 | 2407608 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's what I keep an extra roll of tens and twenties around for.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:54 | 2407652 Angel Face
Angel Face's picture

Don't forget toilet paper.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:23 | 2407786 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That's Mrs Cogs department. I handle the hardware and she manages the software. :)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:21 | 2407507 jomama
jomama's picture

all major economies aggressively inflating their fiat to keep the race towards debasement on parity, and yet all commodities are somehow down in value of these currencies?!!

makes perfect sense to me.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:22 | 2407512 ivars
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:56 | 2408149 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

ivars - nice to have you here! :)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:23 | 2407520 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Iran is now accepting Renimbi in exchange for oil. This smashdown in the PMs is too clever by half. Do I hear the $ whistling through the graveyard?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:30 | 2407551 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Iran is now accepting Renimbi in exchange for oil.

**********

If Iran is excepting Renimbi- they are basing the trade on the USD-

Whatever happens to the $ --happens to the Yuan-unless they let the peg go and float it-

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:33 | 2407536 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

If there is a global recession/depression, the printing presses will not matter for commodity prices – commodities had a tremendous bull market run driven by irresponsible credit bubble and epic misallocation of capital in China.

All bubbles eventually burst and there are such things as secular bear commodity markets (not only secular commodity bull markets).

Mining Industry Braced for Pullback

The cuts could spell the end of a buoyant period for suppliers to the industry, such as Caterpillar, Joy Global of the US and Sweden’s Atlas Copco, which have benefited as demand for trucks, excavators, belt systems and draglines picked up to feed China’s rapacious appetite for raw materials.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05645a82-960e-11e1-a6a0-00144feab49a.html

Australia Heading for ‘Mother of All Hard Landings’

Companies in the resources sector, which borrow large amounts to fund their projects, will struggle to repay their debt if commodity prices fall, he said.

 “Commodities tend to be capital intensive and based on a long term business model. There has been a huge amount of additional investment in commodities sector since 2008 on the assumption that higher commodity prices would be sustainable,” Gambles said.

“Any reduction in commodity prices is going to devastate these companies…it doesn’t take a big change in commodity price or demand to destroy the viability of new projects,” he added.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47290031/Australia_Heading_for_Mother_of_All_Hard_Landings_Pros

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:30 | 2407548 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Interesting for technicians now. 1350 on the S&P... 1600 on gold ... 1.75 on the 10 year. There are some trades that become "impaired." the banks were warned by the Treasury Secretary. Those stress testa were no joke.
"Who wasn't listening" can be as interesting to see as "who was." of course "who doesn't listen in" means "surprise is an oxymoron now." NO TRADE LOSES FOLKS! ALWAYS BUY (especially gold!)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:30 | 2407549 pan
pan's picture

I am just going to keep stacking.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:31 | 2407550 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Playing scratch and sniff in the Crimex kitty box is not advisable at any time imo.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:30 | 2407553 Bubble
Bubble's picture

Embrace the dip! If you're lucky enough to not be rushing for liquidity along with the sellers of course...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:30 | 2407554 Piranha
Piranha's picture

who's buying here?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:50 | 2407638 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Who isn't, PM's are having a yard sale!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:52 | 2407645 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

I'll give you three guesses but you're only gonna need one

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:32 | 2407558 i8emallup
i8emallup's picture

Commodities should get cheaper, as retail investors/sucker pension boards liquidate their "allocations" to "alternative" "assets" like the aig commodity index and gs index.

I vote: Liquidation to sell into.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:32 | 2407561 The game
The game's picture

Question:

I have been stacking pysical silver for some time now.... If/When the shit hits the fan, and silver goes thru the roof where and how is the best way to sell.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:49 | 2407636 WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

you will trade your silver at the grocery store for groceries and also at the sporting goods store for ammo so you can keep those groceries.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:06 | 2407975 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Tulving, Apmex, Gainesville Coins, et al will happily take your PMs in exchange for whatever fiat we're using at the time.  If SHTF and things get totally out of control, no amount of gold and silver will protect you from the hyenas.  What I would look to do is to prepare to weather the storm (3 months supply of food, water), some ammos if you're living in an urban area, and when/if gold and silver go parabolic, look for someone with hard assets - real estate for example - to trade with.  

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:15 | 2408504 DosZap
DosZap's picture

real estate for example - to trade with.

Death Trap.........................this will be the 1st or 2nd thing stolen from individuals.

Its already illegal to grow and cultivate your own food,on your own property.

TAXES, can you afford those, at whatever level they set, if they decided to not just outright take it?.

Tough one,you will never know your rates,until your told.

When / if Au/Aug go parabolic, pray you get out before the dump, and haul ass anywhere but here, and then buy land.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:52 | 2407641 worbsid
worbsid's picture

A bag of small coins is better than bars if you want to buy bread.

http://www.monex.com/prods/silver_90.html

OTOH if you want to buy a Greek Isle bars would be better. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:22 | 2407781 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Don't sell it at all, give it to your children instead.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:34 | 2407566 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Why risk your money in commoditys when the real strength is obviously in Government bonds? Hey didn't you read the Headlines from Market Watch?

U.S. to run first surplus since 2008: CBO Surplus is first of Obama’s presidency

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-to-run-first-surplus-since-2008-cbo-2012-05-07

Who gives a shit that we will be 1.3 TRILLION in the hole at the end of the fiscal year when you can claim victory on a 30 billion dollar gain over last years spending glut in the month of April. This re-election campaign is becomming harder and harder to stomach on a daily basis. On a not so good note, California came up another 2.3 BILLION short to put them on track for another 12 BILLION dollar fiscal shortfall. You can only smoke the hopeium so long before you finally realize that your perception is being seriously impaired. There are a few people that will have their day in the sun very soon, Tyler Durden, Michael Krieger, Charles Bitterman, Gerald Celente, Kyle Bass, Peter Schiff, Meredith Whitney, Rosie, Jim Quinn and especially Graham Summers will finally be able to say, " Don't say I didn't tell you so"...

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:53 | 2407653 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and Romney should say, yes if it wasn't for the GOP making a fight over the debt ceiling the surplus would have never happened. a lot of people are simply falling down the tax bracket ladder, so revenue going ahead is not going to be growing. this is where Romney should say, yes we need a VAT, or flat tax, and reduce the IRS. you pay zero in taxes but H&R gets $500..

Romney could get elected if he just remembers to show up in top hat and tails at every debate. during the first great depression, Hollywood made films about the rich, the rich were above the ordinary problems most people had. the rich worried about whether that girl or guy liked them. when was the next party. when things got slow Fred and Ginger tap danced a bit. Romney has the same persona, that nothing bothers him. he can win the election if he just pretends to be a happy go lucky movie character from the 30's.

i can see him now, tap dancing down the aisle to the SOUA. the alternative is the other movie character from the 30's, the Chicago gangster, which we already have.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:36 | 2407572 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

when markets crash everything gets sold.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:25 | 2407796 Seer
Seer's picture

And a whole bunch of shit won't: the overwhelming majority of crap out there is meaningless shit, shit that won't be of ANY value in the future...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:41 | 2407582 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

double.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2407583 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

It's like someone organized a competition for writing in the most complicated way that the S will be H the F and this guy won first price.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2407592 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

i know you zh chucleheads  revel in insulting one of the smartest men of the 20th century john maynard keynes but shut up & learn a few things: 1. no one would be more appalled by ben then keynes 2. ben & krugman ignore keynes on something called the liquidity trap which says what we are living through is not weimar but something entirely different the printed money does not go to you chuckleheads but rather to the really really rich 3. thus gas can't stay at $4 so forget commodities 4. i know you chuckleheads can't believe it but like apple the banks & rich what you morons sould want is dollars 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:52 | 2407648 miguel991
miguel991's picture

WTF are you rambling on about? You made my head hurt.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:56 | 2407676 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

He said dont worry about inflation the dollar is king. Get as many as you can.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:55 | 2407663 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Hayek was the smartest economist of the twentieth century. Keynes essentially agreed with hayek by his statement " in the long run we are all dead."

Guess what? Keynes is dead and the long run is here. We shall not escape this stage of the business cycle so easily. Debt levels were lower in keynes time and his solutions could work then.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:20 | 2407763 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Bobby, you need an editor to clean up your cloudy thoughts.   I think you might have something to say, but you are incapable of expressing it.   You must be a product of the free American educational system.   Hey, thank your local teachers union, (tho you should blame them).   Good luck scribe, you're going to need it.   PS. Keynes was a homo, along with Ben Strong, Merringer Eccles, J. Edgar Hoover, and Theodore Dexter White and they all did they're goddamnedest to destroy the world.   And he's your hero?   Where do you fit in?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:31 | 2407820 Seer
Seer's picture

"thus gas can't stay at $4 so forget commodities"

The entire paradigm that our "economics" is based on (as long as it's based on perpetual growth on a finite planet) is FLAWED.  As such, your assessment is meaningless, as it's based on a flawed premise.  No, I'd argue that commodities are the ONLY thing that's worth anything.

Yeah, if everyone bases their thinking on how to make the next best trade, then fine, more power to them; but, this is short-term at best.  Food, Shelter and Water, the TRUE fundamentals; "dollars? ha, ha, ha....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 20:17 | 2408608 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Sorry folks, but Bobby is correct UNTIL the Euro fiasco stabilizes, probably with the death of the Euro. Stay in cash until the man on TV says the Euro may be dead, THEN buy PMs.

Just sayin'.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:43 | 2407594 Piranha
Piranha's picture

15 min before sell off

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2407595 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

in other news ...

Morgan Stanley (MS) says Spanish banks may need EUR 25bln in capital

Huh ... counter party on CDS needs at least that would you not .

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:45 | 2407612 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

Short term drop to panic those that bought to turn a quick buck.

Holders of physical that bought for wealth preservation will prevail. Might take a year or two, even longer perhaps, five, ten, nobody knows for sure. But folks with a balanced perspective of why they bought (fiat fraud hedge) will, in my humble opinion, end up smiling.

That is if the World doesn't burn down before that eventuality is realised.

I ain't going to sell any of mine, and I ain't scared if it drops to a couple of hundred bux an ounce in the near, or not so near future either.

It will be worth more than fiat (and anything else) when I decide to sell mine ... or use it for barter.

 

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:47 | 2407614 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I just do not understand how some here still think we will have deflation first. Sure, tech stuff is moving lower, oil now at day high, and almost everything is going up in price. Health premiums, food, gas, heat, shit cars, motorcycles,  garden plant prices. Half a pound of beef bologna yesterday at Wall Mart. $5.00./ for freaking bologna. 

You can buy a house for $200,000 that costs $250,000 to build now. Deflation, I think not.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:57 | 2407680 WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

I don't understand how there can be inflation unless wages and salaries are also spiraling upward like the above goods you mention.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:01 | 2407696 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Exactly

This is a painful rebalancing of relative prices not an inflation yet

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:42 | 2407868 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Wage stagflation.

When you factor the real inflation rate into household incomes, wages have pretty much gone sideways for decades.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:42 | 2407866 Seer
Seer's picture

Inflation and deflation have to to with the supply of currency.  Increases in money supply tend to kick the prices of everything, and, importantly, wages, up.  "Selective" increases is more about a devaluation of currency, and are mostly in those things with already tight margins (and are things that are more essential- McMansions, Hummers and HDTVs aren't "essential").

Credit is contracting.  One could say that this deflates to the money supply: current money "printing" is more about plugging holes the financial sector's book's (because the financial sector is the center of the economy [powerhouses] if it weren't attended to then TPTB would be wiped out).

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:46 | 2407618 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Gold and oil are running bearish.

 

When comparing Gold and Gold stocks, there is substantial divergence.  Stocks have already fallen long before Gold did today.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/gold/daily/

 

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:48 | 2407623 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

When people quit hoarding dollars and start spending them on goods to stockpile the stock market should boom

The goal of neo keynesians is to scare people about the dollar but not too much

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:47 | 2407626 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Love buying physical at these prices. Better than a 30% off sale at Kohls. :)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:01 | 2407700 machineh
machineh's picture

Kinda like doubling down on JDS Uniphase in April 2000, ain't it?

Congratulations!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:49 | 2407631 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Speaking of commodities. UNG....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:53 | 2407644 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Buy, buy, buy...then buy more.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:52 | 2407650 monopoly
monopoly's picture


And what do they headline, ahhh yes, gold going lower, nothing else matters to these imbeciles.

MarketWatch....

Gold closes at lowest level since Jan. 3


Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:54 | 2407657 falak pema
falak pema's picture

why buy in a manipulated market?

Is it the Stockholm syndrome?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:57 | 2407675 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

how does it feel to corner the silver market? ask Nelson and Bunker Hunt, two guys who tried it. the exchange wasn't worried that the market was being cornered by two guys, but that it was being cornerned at all, but investors who really wanted the physical silver. there is no difference, (to them) if there are two guys, Nelson and Bunker Hunt, of two hundred thousand clones who want to buy the market for physical possession, or to corner the market. they're going to react the same way. so watch those margin calls little ducklings, and go physical before you get the call.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:48 | 2408123 Matt
Matt's picture

Here is a novel idea: Don't buy (physical gold and silver) on margin.

If you can't afford it, don't buy it!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:58 | 2407689 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

This has to do with US citizenism. I just know it.

Where is chinabot?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 22:31 | 2408826 Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

LMAO

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:00 | 2407698 Piranha
Piranha's picture

there we go, right on time

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:06 | 2407723 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

i bought on 4/20 at 1640. I'll buy again.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:18 | 2407760 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

gold is a loser

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:59 | 2407942 Seer
Seer's picture

It's beaten Berkshire Hathaway 3 to 1 over that last 11 years:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-face-off-warren-buffett-19210010...

I suppose when the likes of Warren blast folks for being uncivilized he really means that people should be more willing to get fucked (and buy his shit).

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:23 | 2407783 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Gold has been maintaining an 8:1 ratio against the dow lately; losing or gaining in exact proportion.

Over the past eight months it has lost ground.  Late last summer it hit something like 6.5:1 and ever since the dow has been regaining that lost ground.

But over the past ten years gold has gone from 40:1 against the dow to 8:1.  Prolly a trend which will continue; if I were a betting man;-)

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:23 | 2407788 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nice job today. Smash Gold, smash the market. Buy up the market and leave gold hangin in the wind. Well done.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:25 | 2407795 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Reflate or die! Another (yawn) correction in the ongoing bull market that began in 1999 at $250 per ounce. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:40 | 2407850 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I don't know about commodities, but today clearly marks the end of the decline for equities in the very short-term.  Fukkers.  But I am poised to grab the miners hand over fist the first sign of strength.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:44 | 2407879 Silversem
Silversem's picture

Picked op some gold coins today. i am waiting for a nice trading set up to trade gold and silver with cfd's.

The start of the summer will be the best time to pick up some goldmining juniors i think.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:48 | 2407902 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

The fed is doing QE as we speak... what else does buying 60-80% of all US bonds mean?  The debt is unpayable at a 100% tax rate, the economy is in the tank and getting worse, many cities are in BK shape, pensions ditto.  Solutions?  None.  I will keep a good percentage of the funds in gold.  But I may wait just a little to add until the Euro wreck is really going to town...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:09 | 2407992 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

But I may wait just a little to add until the Euro wreck is really going to town...

Sounds reasonable. From my "European" (German) point of view, however, it is best to stock up asap.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:17 | 2408030 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Don't breathe a word about this to the algobots.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:51 | 2407914 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Handgun permits up 55% in my county in 2012 alone. Should crush the old record set in 2008. 

Pack, rack and stack. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:54 | 2407926 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Wow! Who would buy on this dip? It's so obvious.....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:18 | 2408033 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Not many people, obviously.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:09 | 2407984 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Gold offers no protection whatsoever. Everytime things get a little iffy it collapses. Not once, not twice, but everything single time.

I am not saying it's right, I am not saying it's fair, I am not saying it makes sense, I am saying that reality is the only truth.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:14 | 2408179 akak
akak's picture

 

Gold offers no protection whatsoever. Everytime things get a little iffy it collapses. Not once, not twice, but everything single time.

And that is why the price of gold is up over 500% since 2001.

And that is why gold has always been the financial refuge of choice during times of monetary chaos and upheaval.

Are you always so eloquent when speaking from you ass?

 

PS:  Bastiat would probably be appalled at your misappropriation and misuse of his name.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:46 | 2408455 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 I am saying that reality is the only truth.

No, your seeing INTERVENTION.........................

Do not confuse VALUE with price!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:10 | 2407996 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Bullshit. This is still fucking bearish. They control the market. They have won. I lost.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2408001 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

I buy.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:11 | 2408373 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

I have been waiting three months for silver to hit $29.25. ($940/Kg) It looked like it had to touch this point before the next big leg up. It finally touched it today. As soon as it touched $939, today, it bounced nicely. I feel confident the real bottom is now in. At long last! Take a look at a 1yr chart and you may see what I mean... Next stop $44, then small retracement, then $66. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:51 | 2408565 vincent
vincent's picture

Hello.

My name is Vincent and I'm uncivilized.

It's been 3 days since my last fix.

My family tells me to fight the urges.

I'm failing and my family is concerned about a relapse.

I've told them they should just let me go. I'm a lost cause.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:58 | 2408575 marcus popus
marcus popus's picture

Gold offers plenty of protection since I bought at 400.00. Silver too, 16.00.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 20:39 | 2408634 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

i won't be trading any more stocks until the u.s. does something about the crime and corruption in their capital markets.  

they can have their PPT/HFT circle jerk until the S&P hits 5000 for all i care.  i refuse to play along until i start seeing some perp walks.

as far as i see it, they are stealing from hard working, honest people to prop up a corrupt banking system and their bankster-buddies.

it's too bad someone can't sue the CFTC or SEC for breaching their sworn duties.  ultimately, they are to blame for not protecting us.  

...and they wonder what happened to the retail investor..  

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!