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Calm Before The Storm? Credit Plunges As VIX Futures Jump Most In 2 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Credit markets are continuing the trend of the last couple of days with this afternoon seeing their underperformance accelerating. Major underperformance this week in investment grade and high yield credit markets relative to stocks (and as we noted this morning, we are also seeing financial credit in Europe notably underperforming) as Maiden Lane II assets are sold and high yield issuance peaks (and liquidity dries up). Adding to the concerns, VIX futures saw their biggest 2-day jump in over two months despite equity's modest rally. On a day when Pisani tells us there was much to rejoice about, stocks managed only negligible gains (even with broad risk assets in risk-on mode, TSY yields up, FX carry up, Oil up) and while stocks are limping higher now (aside from AAPL of course) with financials underperforming, perhaps this week of notably higher average trade size in equity futures is the calm before the real storm gets going - as credit and vol seems to be hinting at.

 

High yield credit (light red) has now been leaking dramatically for a few days. Investment grade credit (dark red) also started to crack this afternoon as ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) in blue managed to creep up to new highs once again. HYG (green) has a major stumble in the middle of the day (red oval) but was 'rescued' to close higher - though ended with a stumble.

Volumes in ES and NYSE were around average but we note that yesterday saw the highest average trade size in ES since 7/28/11 - the top of the crash slide coincidentally. Is retail about to be left holding the bag again as the professionals exit into strength?

Perhaps it is coincidence but the event that stumbled credit and then equity markets initially last summer was the attempted and failed sale of Maiden Lane II assets. We note that Goldman lifted out some of that trash this week from the FRBNY and held it on their books - suggesting they got it 'cheap' if you know what we mean. Maybe hedgers are out looking for protection as they worry new marks are in place for those CDOs?

 

 

VIX futures saw their biggest 2-day jump in two months and nearly the biggest since the Thanksgiving Day rally began in earnest. By the close VIX futures had jumped 5% or over 1 vol over the last two days.

JPY and EUR were the key features of today's FX market with the former managing to reach 1.33 before the European close and then wiggle sideways for much of the rest of the day (ending up 1% on the week so far). JPY leaked lower once again, now down 1.4% on the week

Treasuries ended off their highest yields of the day with modest steepening on the day as 30Y underperformed  (though was better off the auction). 10Y is the major underperformer on the week (mortgage convexity?) and is up 11bps while 30Y is up only 6bps. Even the short-end managed some losses with 2Y up 3bps on the week so far. 2s10s30s  - a popular risk driver - is up an impressive 23bps from Friday's close at 63bps and has helped support the risk-on rally in stocks.

Commodities diverged from just before the European close with Oil and Copper ending at their highs holding gains while Silver and Gold leaked back to the day's lows to close more in sync with the USD weakness on the week. All ECO-sensistive commodities are still up on the week with WTI nudging $100 again and outperforming +1.9% and Gold +0.2% (against USD -).4%).

In the words of one of the best equity/credit traders we know (h/t Andy Y) "Someone pooped in the pool but not everyone has seen it yet".

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:14 | 2143541 Never1
Never1's picture

TVIX time?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:25 | 2143580 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

I've been watching it. Looks like SPX futures VIX fell out of the lower BB and is perhaps heading back to the 18MA like it has been for the past two months at least.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:56 | 2143869 Thomas
Thomas's picture

None of this matters if Appleflix is soaring.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:26 | 2143586 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Yep. Limited downside, potential 5-6x upside (or more) if you can be patient with it.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:35 | 2143596 resurger
resurger's picture

Wait for the Dow, it's close to reaching the 13,000, there is a potential of spiking the market's higher and taking the S&P with it.

buy max 100-200 shares and buy more as it heads's lower.(IMO)

Am a bear, so be careful that's all am saying.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:36 | 2143618 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

yes and VXO time - Ladies - http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:52 | 2143664 resurger
resurger's picture

Fuck the VIX if you have that graph in real time

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:41 | 2143628 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

It's interesting because the last few days, I've been saying that I've been seeing some weird action in the market. VXX up the last 3 days while SPY is also up. Anyone who watches volality knows that you don't see that happenning for more than a few days without one of the two breaking down. I put on a SPY put spread right before the close. We'll see what happens...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:43 | 2143633 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Monthlies expire next week, VXX historically bounces a bit the week before and leading up to options expiration.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:48 | 2143657 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

As I stated on previous post, bought TVIX Tues at 14. Too much crazy ass shit going down for VIX to be this low.

Too much suckin' on the Hopium pipe. Still catch it on the way up, but I think we've seen resistance here.

Hide your PM's befo big brother come callin'.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:43 | 2143839 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Bought at 14.20.  I like it.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:17 | 2143554 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Nothing has changed. They have deeply hidden the facts for awhile, but like life itself those facts always come back around.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:25 | 2143563 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Interesting ES volume today too Tyler...

ES volume was low overall, but compared to the recent average it was 8% higher.

The NET aggreesive sellers led buyers by 1.41% with this 8% increase in volume.

And the trading in the high end of the range - the ridiculous 3-handle chop - was all selling. Net selling increased 6 fold up there - capping the rally.  

Calm b4 the storm?  Could be...but the monkeys will prolly still grab at the Dow 13k banana first. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:30 | 2143597 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

 

 

Feb. 9, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST

The insiders are selling heavily

Commentary: July was last time insiders were equally as bearish

That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-are-selling-heavily-2012-02-09

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:45 | 2143640 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

And methinks all the insiders are rooting for another US downgrade.

Nothing like a planned short sell!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 19:27 | 2143616 French Frog
French Frog's picture

The juiciest banana around and like you i'd be amazed if we don't get there first before any meaningful drop; there must be plenty of stops gathered above and just ripe to be taken + it would make some wonderful headlines into the weekend; i can almost hear cnbc .....

Glad to hear though that selling at the top has increased; a gap down opening tomorrow below the recent lows just above 12810 to get a better idea of the bulls' resolve would be nice indeed

*worked just as planned*

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:22 | 2143570 brewing
brewing's picture

meh...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:22 | 2143571 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I bought TVIX @ 15.60. Lots of volume today. Big money placing their bets? Get your popcorn ready folks!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:40 | 2143625 Piranha
Piranha's picture

got some yesterday, I want to see what happens to TVIX when S&P actually falls, yep nice move on vol today

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:58 | 2143683 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Ah yes, everyone all of a sudden loading up on an asset meant to decline. Wise wise risk management here folks, really. Enjoy the pop if you get one, but dont expect a move from 14 to 100.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:14 | 2143747 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Right and buy and hold value investing is the best investment strategy. You're better off playing the contrarian and gambling in these manipulated markets.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 21:55 | 2144383 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Lol yes i definitely said B&H only. Believe me, you betting on a levered vol etf is not playing contrarian but playing an idiot and letting the big boys eat your lunch.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:24 | 2143575 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

so far in 2012, the /ES has closed in the red a mere 7 times of 28 trading days. And the biggest down day was a measly -5.75.

With those numbers, you'd think the world were in some kind of economic nirvana.

Simply mind-boggling.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:26 | 2143587 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

That - or it's rigged by the global central banking mafia. Just sayin...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:34 | 2143614 resurger
resurger's picture

Blackrock say's you have to be 100% in Equity 100%

One Hundred Percent

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:43 | 2143632 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

And Goldman today recommended going long the AUD/USD.

Conclusion: Short the AUD/USD.

And since the /ES has traded in lock step with it...well...deduce from that what you will.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:49 | 2144782 smb12321
smb12321's picture

If the FED institutes QE3 either directly or indirectly (some would argue we've had various versions of QE 2 1/2) then yes, go long in stocks.  Ride up the advance/weak dollar and don't forget to sell. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:25 | 2143579 smb12321
smb12321's picture

This is so eerily reminiscent of the dot com crash.   I was a day trader and though inundated with warnings, I chose to believe it could go on forever.  The worst aspect of a bubble is the unwillingness to accept that it has finally burst.  On the surface stocks are barely moving but unerneath a vicious churning is taking place.  The potential disasters -EU, debt, credit, debtm housing, debt, low volume, jobs.  As a friend said, "It is the proverbial calm before the storm."

"

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:08 | 2143719 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It is going to surprise you, but the ES will be pushed to 1380 before the SHTF.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 23:03 | 2144529 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

This will be the first market collapse that everyone saw coming and yet still got pants'd.  Its only fun when everyone loses.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:46 | 2144775 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Yes, just as we are watching the decline of our nation before our eyes and seem unable to do a thing about it.  The worst thing about massive debt is not the money itself but the dangerous political path taken when the SHTF.  I don't really worry about a Bush, Clinton, Obama or Romney but we could elect someone who promised that all we need is "tough rules", less freedom, more control - all, of course, for the good of the peoplel  

It's like the "Patriot"Act.  Under the current presidents we can get by but the potential is there for an unscrupulous maniac using "terrorism" as a rationale for instituting the uglier sections.

 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:57 | 2144798 smb12321
smb12321's picture

I can realistically see 1400 or even 1425.  The power of the FED to push markets should not be discounted.  I noted with amusement how the MSM reports markets.  During the Clinton years, it was cool to invest in stocks with PEs of 200. With Bush they were lways bitching that yeah, the market reached new highs but the "people" were left out.  Now with BO we return to the same BS -great market therefore the economy has recovered when in fact, we are worse off (participation) than ever.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 19:26 | 2143968 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I think many of us share your uneasiness and you are right, this is all too familiar.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:26 | 2143585 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Haven't we seen this somewhere before, yes yes now I remember...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:27 | 2143593 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Piss-any is a paid off puppet of the CNBC clown squad !! Why does anybody watch that painted over bulls#$t?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:33 | 2143607 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Isn't it against the law for the market to go down, tho?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:03 | 2143697 Silver Pullet
Silver Pullet's picture

Terrorists can make it go down.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:09 | 2144701 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

No, that's rapists.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:22 | 2144723 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

You are suspect if you sell!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:46 | 2143624 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Fed algo's control this market with the help of Goldman Sachs, JPM and BOA and their primary dealer pimps.  When they change the MOMO's to sell mode, it is going to be a bloodbath of enormous proportions...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:43 | 2143630 Triple A
Triple A's picture

calm before the storm? no way, happy days are here again.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:46 | 2143643 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

don't you mean blissful days?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:12 | 2144710 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

don't you mean ignoranceful days?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:43 | 2143634 Piranha
Piranha's picture

I think it's safe to say that the Greek deal is PRICED IN

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:45 | 2143639 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Oh don't worry, they'll fix it somehow - just like they hammered down Italy 10 year Bonds, magically kept Bank of America stock over $5 a share, the DOW in general, T Bill yields, etc.

In fact, if Zero Hedge said it; it's now on the hot sheet to be pumped back up.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:47 | 2143651 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

No shit,  PPT at work 24/7.   These fuckers have had not rest since the US debt downgrade.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:56 | 2143871 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

BINGO. Would be nice for ZH to report on nothing but skittle shitting unicorns on every corner, free houses on every street for about 3 weeks. Unfortunately, without Zerohedge, Ben wouldn't have a clue as to what to do. Hmmm. ZH on the bull train?? Nah...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:46 | 2143646 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Yes, a storm is coming.
We will call it the war to end all wars.
In reality, it will be the war to end all.
Are you prepared?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:50 | 2143656 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Lock, load and one in the pipe - ready to rock & roll.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:10 | 2144706 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

okay, now point it at your temple...

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:24 | 2144727 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

I'm using my unemployment to buy silver.....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:05 | 2143701 thelonious punk
thelonious punk's picture

This new system of cpaitalism that the Fed and this government is engaged in causes these problems every so often. You just have to buy the VIX, whether through options or TVIX and wait. The problem with TVIX is the structure of the product itself but can be used in a short-run period. However jsut go back and look at VIX over the last ten years, it basically spikes every year. Corruption and deception ultimately breeds these spikes even when the goal of them by the Fed and others is to make things appear nice and normal. Sad really.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:37 | 2143819 paul_Liu
paul_Liu's picture

Calm Before The Storm?

 

hope you will be right for one time.....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:52 | 2143860 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Somebody shit in the pool and the brown trout is about to float to the surface.

Calm before the storm?  You betcha, but something smells bad.

Suggestion:  Don't be the last one out of the pool.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:56 | 2143868 Diamond_Dave
Diamond_Dave's picture

that thing about the toilet bowl or somebody's swimming pool.  that's what i was thinking -- very odd and volume pouring in by half day like yesterday for a full day

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 19:12 | 2143917 chump666
chump666's picture

And who bought VIX TVIX plays. Hmmm?

History and cycles my friends VIX Futures and SPX/DOW divergence. Almost a guarantee. But, still waiting for the big one.

But it is close, once Europe implodes into chaos.

The market will start to roll over into risk averse. Profit taking should turn to panic. I would lock in 1987, 2000, 2002, 2008, 2010 meltdown.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:16 | 2144715 chump666
chump666's picture

then there is China...Ah sh*t, it's coming down.

0349 GMT [Dow Jones] The collapse in China's January imports "begs particular attention," IHS economists Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton say in a note. "A fall of over 15% in January cannot be entirely explained by the lunar calendar, and adds weight to the view that economic output is slower than headline indicators might suggest." China's trade surplus unexpectedly widened to $27.3 billion in January from $16.5 billion in December. Exports fell 0.5% from a year earlier while imports plunged by 15.3%. "Such a dramatically low import number reflects extremely weak domestic demand, as investment slumps and drags on economic activity," the two economists add.

 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:44 | 2147723 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

"Someone pooped in the pool but not everyone has seen it yet".

That's some funny shit, because the MSM/pro-election cycle enthusiasts will have you believe it's just a Babyruth.

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 01:18 | 2152622 q5251355
q5251355's picture

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