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The Can Kicking Is Ending - Key Upcoming Dates For Europe's Patient Zero

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When it comes to the markets one can easily ignore the fact that the world is one big ponzi and things, as we know them, are coming to an end as long as the can can be kicked down the street at least one more time. In other words, without a hard deadline, there is nothing that can force change upon a system already in motion, no matter how self-destructive. Unfortunately, the clock in Europe is ticking as a deadline approaches, and somewhat poetically, the place where it all started is where it may end. In March Greece faces a redemption cliff: if by then the €130 billion promised to it by the Troika as per the July 21 second bailout, is not delivered, it is game over - first for Greece which will default, then for the ECB, which will be forced to write down holdings of Greek bonds, in effect wiping out its equity and credibility, and lastly, for the Euro, which will see a core member leaving (in)voluntarily.

As the WSJ reported today, "Greece faces the risk of a disorderly default in March if it doesn't complete negotiations for the country's second bailout starting later this month, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said Wednesday." The problem is that "the stakes are rising as Greece pushes the sensitive issue of reducing private-sector salaries, under pressure from creditors to quicken reforms. Private-sector labor union GSEE said the government has instructed them to start discussions with employers on ways to reduce costs. GSEE General Secretary Nikolaos Kioutsikos said the talks will run until the start of February and cover lowering the minimum salary and reducing annual pay by up two months. As Papademos told us, there are no barriers to these cuts," he told reporters. GSEE rejects any talk of pay cuts and will propose ways to lower other costs and protect jobs." In other words, the dormant Syntagma riot cam will very likely see serious action quite soon, only this time there is no can kicking, something which G-Pap knows too well, and is why he formally resigned from politics earlier today. So while the market drifts ever higher of some blissful "decoupling" from something, here is SocGen with the key events for Europe's Patient Zero, which is almost guaranteed to not be a part of the Eurozone by the end of the year.

Greece: to leave or not to leave? Key dates ahead

 

We have said for some time now that should any country leave the eurozone, it would be a political decision. This is still true. However, Greece faces a crucial agenda over the coming weeks with key dates that could tip the scales.

 

Troika to visit Athens on 16 January. The Troika will make yet another trip to Athens mid-January to start new negotiations on the new funding programme and to review the economic and fiscal situation. It may reiterate that Greece has to speed up its efforts to implement its austerity programme, keeping the pressure on the Greek government. However, should discussions surrounding PSI continue, the Troika is quite unlikely to veto further aid to Greece.

 

PSI agreement by the end of January. First, Greece and the IIF said they must reach an agreement on PSI by the end of the month. The IIF has  been quite optimistic over the past few days, saying that progress has been made. However, no agreement has yet been reached. It must be based on the terms of the 26/27 October EU Summit, which means a 50% haircut on a voluntary basis. This is supposed to reduce public debt  by EUR100bn. Greece would like a bigger haircut, especially as the country is sinking deeper into recession and the economic outlook is not  bright. However, a bigger haircut seems quite unlikely at this point.

 

Big redemptions by the end of March. An agreement over PSI is a key condition for the EU/IMF to deliver the EUR110bn promised in July and confirmed in October.  Greece will need this package if it wants to meet its first large GGB redemption of 2012 at the end of March.

 

Greek elections in April. Lastly the Greeks will go to the polls in April, a tough test for the Greek government against the backdrop of social  pressure and as Greece slips deeper into recession. PM Papademos will have to convince the Greeks that current austerity measures, and perhaps more ahead, are necessary for a brighter outlook at the end of the day...

 

All in all, much like the past two years for Greece, 2012 has shot off at top speed and it will have to clear all the key event hurdles if it wants to  remain a eurozone member. The Greek PM clearly envisages a pessimistic scenario: let’s hope this is meant to keep up the pressure and force key decision-makers to take concrete measures as well as implement them.

 

For now, market participants remain in a wait-and-see stance: 2Y and 10Y GGB yields are trading slightly off recent record levels of 156% and 36%, respectively, (currently at 134% and 34.88%, respectively). A 50% haircut has now been largely priced-in. However, Greece is still not immune to a more severe scenario.

 


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Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

March is too long to wait.  Can we have an earlier crash?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Crash or Crush?

I expect this to create the mandate for the EU fiscal union that they've been trying to get forever.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

They will get it.  Socialist, Centralist, Bankers rule the world.  Remove all market participants except the banks, ECB, and govts.  Then you can set interest rates wherever you want.  Greece would be fine if interest rates were at 0.01% and they had constant access to new debt to rollover the old debt.  Thats where we are heading.  Money isn't real, so who gives a shit how much is owed.  Interest rates are going down down down.  Holding Greek  debts will be a profitable trade.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 02:27 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

bankers may rule, but nature dictates.

 

nature says "too much money"

 

soon bush, obama, pelosi, bernanke, banksters will all die of old age. Nature's insurance against tyranny.

 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 03:39 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Have US citizens not built up on institutional power which endures the death of specific persons?

Have US citizens not built their system around private property which means that ways to power are inherited?

US citizens living on their island of propaganda, US citizens unable to speak of themselves...

US world order.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Rhone_Ranger
Rhone_Ranger's picture

Europe can't touch us when it comes to our mastery of innovative capitalism:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S2p7AiNX9g

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Just to use 'meme' one last time before it is thrown into the dustbin of overused hipster lingo burnout binTM, anybody ready to reveal their meme regardiing the macro outlook for the new year?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"New abnormal"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Lets dig a little deeper

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

We break it, you buy it!

 

And don't worry about 'meme', it will be around until SOPA is enacted...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 02:15 | Link to Comment Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

All your base are belong to U.S.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

2012 theme:

"Broken Tokens"

All your paper and electronic "wealth" are subject to immediate failure.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Check the Nielson sweeps calendar, I guess.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It will happen earlier, there is no way that individuals holding EU and other countries debt want to keep holding it when the spark is set in March.  There will be a run out of all that in Feburary.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Trickle down pyrotechnics

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

You mean like thowing water on a Greece fire?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment MarkTwain00
MarkTwain00's picture

whachu china do, burn the house down?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I think this is why their was the 14000 and 15000 call volume on the GLD March 162 and 160 strike prices yesterday.  Very interesting as to timing

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

They are "off their highs".....LOL!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Exactly C-Dad.  How naive (or mealy-mouthed, hard to tell which) of the writer . . . yields "still worrisome..."  ...yah think?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Stockmonger
Stockmonger's picture

.. as Greece pushes the sensitive issue of reducing private-sector salaries, under pressure from creditors to quicken reforms.

But wait, Krugman told me this week that government debt is debt that we owe to ourselves.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

So creditors to the sovereigns are using leverage on government bodies to alter private employment contracts?

This austerity thing gets weirder by the second. I thought only the mob operated at that level.

"What do you mean, you don't have my money? Yo, you better get my money by March, or you'll be swimming with the fishes! Steal it if you have to, I don't care. Just get it NOW!"

Meanwhile, the fact that anyone still considers government a legitimate entity just blows my freakin' mind.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Organized crime or creative ponzi. 

This system needs a reset.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

I think you mean an enema.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 05:45 | Link to Comment fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Reset? Like cancel all debts and redistribute the land? whoop whoop Great idea!

 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment OneEyedJack
OneEyedJack's picture

I thought only the mob operated at that level.

 

Spot On!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

I think the problem is that public sector workers have to be paid at least minimum wage, but in order to change the minimum wage both public and private sector unions must agree. If they don't, the minimum wage can't be changed.

And the GSEE is basically saying "Molon labe, bitches"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

The public sector needs to be reduced to no more than 11% of the GDP.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I'd go for 11% here in the US, but Obama seems intent on it being the private sector that ends up at 11% of GDP.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

The government is the mob.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 07:59 | Link to Comment OliverTwist
OliverTwist's picture

The government is the crème de la crème of the mob.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Obama altered private sector contracts - abolished is a better word - when he took over GM and Chrysler. In fact, he screwed over some states, too, who were holders of Chrysler debt. Why even bother having laws or contracts any longer? The politicians do whatever they want without punishment. The only 'reset' that gets them off our backs is a strong EMP burst. That, of course, would be like having our noses cut off to save our faces.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

Since you brought up crime and punishment, what ever happened with MF global?  Has that shit been swept under the rug already?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No. That's the sense of self magic used on you. It's like when someone you hate and you are ripping their guts out all over the floor and you feel all sad and regretful inside. That's not you. That's their sadness and regret being pumped into you as your own. All energy is fungible to the fucktards who run this vampire asylum and they simply cut and paste because they retain ownership of the body you are stuffed in.

This is why they try to confuse the fuck out of you with so many sense of self versions. You're private self your public self your family self your work self your creative self your servant self. And this is why documents take ALL THE PEOPLE of a state or country and put them all in the "hands" of a "court" system. And they use "The People of blah blah blah blah" to "convict" the person of "blah blah blah blah". Because they are goddamn liars but not regular liars. Liars with rotating shifting focus's and mind fuck shredders.

The bold truth is that government debt is debt owed by the people to the servants and masters and rule makers who force these rule systems into you as you go through like a waterfall tunnel that leads to this place. Where you're constantly bombarded by lies to remove whatever power and understanding your real self has by replacing it with a bunch of garbage concepts and bullshit lies within lies.

If you think they are not completely fucking insane and unreasonable simply buy any modern game and have a look at the stupid restrictions and forced rules in them. Because that's all this is to them a game of learning how to control people through shoving them into groups and categories that they are not a part of through force and confusion.  Game set match is not the key to winning here. It's game theory set theory and match theory. As long as you make yourself available to a "labor pool" or "crowd source" or any sort of social sturcture present on this planet you are being abused the fuck out of. If you even call yourself human or say this is "MY" hand or "MY" eyes or this is the way "I" see it.

Because to fucktards who run this plus there is no I in lie.

They'll give personhood to a corporation and then limit it's liability in a manner a person is not allowed to do. Because all they think about night and day is how to fuck with senses of self.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.

People are beginning to realize that the apparatus of government is costly. But what they do not know is that the burden falls inevitably on them.

Law cannot organize labor and industry without organizing injustice.

The plans differ; the planners are all alike...

Now, legal plunder can be committed in an infinite number of ways. Thus we have an infinite number of plans for organizing it: tariffs, protection, benefits, subsidies, encouragements, progressive taxation, public schools, guaranteed jobs, guaranteed profits, minimum wages, a right to relief, a right to the tools of labor, free credit, and so on, and so on. All these plans as a whole—with their common aim of legal plunder—constitute socialism.

But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.

Claude Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850) 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture
Margaret Thatcher, in a television interview for Thames TV This Week on February 5, 1976. Prime Minister Thatcher said, "...and Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They [socialists] always run out of other people's money. It's quite a characteristic of them."
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 04:19 | Link to Comment the tower
the tower's picture

..."other people's money" being the banks, without whom the rich (Thatcher's buddies) could never have become ultra insanely rich... debt creation is the key, and they needed those "socialist overspending governments" to do this... jezus christ, does anyone still have a few brain cells left???

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Does anyone really believe March is "looming"?  If there is one thing I have learned it is that the can will be kicked until they kick it and it doesnt move- surely to be a painful effort.  Until then...game on.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As I stated above, I think it's all about the fiscal union. They'll scare everybody (a.k.a. "Do as I say and nobody gets hurt!") in order to further enslave them all. Then, and only then, they'll kick the can again.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I'm curious how much of that €130B will go straight back to German banks. A lot I think.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 00:47 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Agreed.

Conjecture: On a long enough timeline, sufficiently advanced "can kicking" is indsitinguishable from "solution".

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 05:44 | Link to Comment Dcheeth2
Dcheeth2's picture

Not quite. I think you under-estimate the power and stubborness of the non-elected Euro officials in Brussels.

If the can can't be kicked any further, then they'll just drink a new can of coca cola, bought with US dollars, drop it on the floor, then kick some more.

Nothing, and I mean nothing will disrupt the Euro dream, from the point of politics. The only thing that will disrupt it is a full on revolution and nationalist sentiment in places like Greece, which even the Army would not be able to control.

Good thing is, that Europe has a history of being pretty good concerning revolutions.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Greece needs to default.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And who would possibly be allowed to do that? Certainly no one within the government, as they are all safely owned. As for the rest, they simply won't be asked for their opinion.

Funny how abstractions work, huh? It's all about maintaining a pretense. In this case, it's the pretense that Greece owes somebody, a concept totally devoid of reality.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

I miss Orly and Gordon Gekko

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

B9K9..

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

How much more road is there for that fucking dented can to be kickk down.... just step on the fucking can and throw it  off bens fucking bold head!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

Dimes of March...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment MieleBauknecht
MieleBauknecht's picture

Since 1829, when greece fought its independancy war from the ottoman empire, the country was already in a debt situation it could never pay off. Since than it went backrupt a couple of times due to wars with turkey, the second world war etc.  It was never in its modern history able to pay its debt.  it is nothing new. That's why the tax-evasive culture exists in greece untill today. Every attempt to change this culture will fail.  Europe need to understand this culture in order to conclude that greece is hopeless as a member of the eurozone.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

The entire eurozone has been a "hopeless" experiment from its inception onwards.

If anything, a common currency between 2-3 strong neighbouring nations with similiar stats maybe would have made sense.... and i'm not even sure about that. Probably would have been best to just forget the whole concept of a generic financial and ecnonomic union, and instead just make arrangements individually on a by-nation basis.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 04:03 | Link to Comment the tower
the tower's picture

Where does this misconception come from? The media? 

The Euro has never been the problem, the total mismanagement of economies was.

Take Spain, where billions of $$ (yes US Dollars) were pumped into the housing bubble. Where did this money come from? You guessed it. American banks.

Greece. Massive loans ($$) have been given to the 2nd poorest country in the EU. Where did most of this money come from? Yup. American banks. Who got Greece into the Euro by doctoring the books? American banks.

Bush, Aznar, Obama, Goldman Sachs etc etc... these are the people that fucked us, Europeans and Americans alike, totally skewing the markets, stocks and anything that has value. It has been the slow collapse of the USA (and the UK) all this time, not the collapse of Europe, or the Euro.

A good example is Germany vs UK: Germany has record low unemployment rates even though they are not a low wage country. They produce high quality products that are in demand (so do The Netherlands, Switzerland, the Nordics). The UK has record high employment because they don't produce anything, they have been living in a fantasy land called "the City".

Same for the US vs China.

What the US and the UK need to do is stop destroying the rest of the world - cause the rest of the world is actually doing FINE - and finally get their lazy asses to WORK!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 05:56 | Link to Comment fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

The Euro has never been the problem, the total mismanagement of economies was.

And What the US and the UK need to do is stop destroying the rest of the world - cause the rest of the world is actually doing FINE - and finally get their lazy asses to WORK!

Couldn't agree more with the tower!!

 

 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

I'm British and I STILL agree.

And what really fucking annoys me is that us Brits (like our esteemed cousins in the Northern Americas) have traditionally been great at making useful stuff, then selling it at a reasonable profit.

Of course, the drive towards spending 'other peoples money' instead has a very logical basis; A guy who worked his butt off 40+ hours a week in a factory, steel mill, etc might reasonably be expected to want to enjoy the fruits of his labour - and might very well object when some statist / corporatist makes plain their desire to tax him at an effective rate of 82% to pay for stuff the productive members of society don't actually want!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 02:01 | Link to Comment natty light
natty light's picture

Europe should just make Greece a "National Park" and treat it as a continental asset for winter vacays.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

By then Greece will have bought another 10 billion of NBG preferreds

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment spankfish
spankfish's picture

Dolmades for everyone!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

every one in the market has a can to kick .

so the can will be kicked and the loans from the fed will turn into Q-3   Q-4  Q-5

look to 2014  for the real can kicker .. 2012 is an election year.. look for more erection .. slops over to 2013   .. like wily  coyote then the mass will look down .. and fear will be on the lips of the fogged over brain

80% of iowa vote was for the status qu... loss of freedom. more war, more printing, more government , more shooting gays in military, more drive by shootings at approved abortion clinics .. more lies , more reality TV..  more of the same . 

a santatorium for relief ... for the crippled brains of the american consumer..

pleasure  charts all shooting up .. brain and thinking charts going down,,

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Silverballs
Silverballs's picture

Lord monkton said about a month ago that greece was going to default in mid march.. Whether that is true or not I thought it was worth mentioning due to the article

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think it would be good if that happens but the man is not all that he seems. He, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, is in my opinion an intellectual power hungry lunatic.

In 2007 he said he would ""leave the European Union, close down 90 per cent of government services and shift power away from the atheistic, humanistic government and into the hands of families and individuals.

He believes he is part of the 0.00001 percent.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:14 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Like He We Can Never Mention Unless We Call Him A Lunatic running for president in the U.S., eh?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I have no idea what you're talking about. He's British, he can't run for President. Anybody can call anybody a lunatic. Freedom of speech and all that.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:38 | Link to Comment Conor
Conor's picture

Sounds pretty good to me.  Can Monckton run for president?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

As above. No he can't. He's British.

I agree with almost all of what he says about disbanding government. It's his solution to put power into the hands of families and individuals. You do realise he means "royalty" and hereditary peers? Do you you wish you had a King or Queen of the United States? If you do I wish you could take ours.

Monckton has uniquely been told to desist on his claim to be a member of the House of Lords. He is not.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 03:20 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

What's wrong with that?
Sounds libertarian and just.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

As above times two.

I agree with almost all of what he says about disbanding government. It's his solution to put power into the hands of families and individuals. You do realise he means "royalty" and hereditary peers? Do you you wish you had a King or Queen of the United States? If you do I wish you could take ours.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

 

The can being kicked is one of "Motor Honey", that had been poured into the crankcase of a '78 Chevy Vega with leaking valves, stems, and oil rings, that was run a quart-and-a-half low blowing blue smoke through Death Valley on the way to a bender in Vegas by a couple of guys who left behind their Wives and Kids. 

While there they robbed little old ladies at the slot machines and pick-pocketed drunk youngsters at wedding parties.  They got drunk on free booze while playing $2 blackjack, were surly to the waitress and dealer, made fun of anyone losing, before barfing their way to the restroom and never tipping anyone.

They should have wound up in jail and rehab but ended up getting jobs in Washington and Wall Street. 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment AUD
AUD's picture

If Italian banks can get a guarantee from the Italian government, borrow from the ECB then lend to the Italian government, then Greece can do it too. So can the US.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I think it was the ECB that swapped euros for dollars at the Fed which then bought the Italian bonds.  I don't see any reason why Greece can't get the Fed to print them some dollars that they can then swap for euros.  What's another few billion between friends?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment You Lie
You Lie's picture

Greece will gets it money in March.  Troika Jan 16 = Kabuki.  Greece will get its money NO MATTER WHAT THEY DO between now and March.   The can will be kicked.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

I agree. Not really seeing how this information equates to an end of the can-kicking. I see it playing out something like this:

March 2012,

ECB: "Hello Ben, are you there?"

FED: "Yes Draghi, I'm here."

ECB: "Yes Ben, could you spot us a loan? Europe is going to collapse next week."

FED: "Oh, that would damage Goldman's interests badly. We can't let that happen! How much do you need?"

ECB: "170 Billion...well let's make it an even $200 billion so I can save Agricole and Credit Suisse also."

FED: "I'll need some collateral so I can look at Congress with a straight face and deny we bailed out Europe."

ECB: "No problem! I have some 10yr Greek bonds I'll sell you at Par."

FED: "Foshizzle-my-Nizzle. I'll wire it right over."

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:15 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was very funny!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 03:26 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I think so, too.
1. They will keep delaying the inevitable longer than most realists expect.
2. If a country fails it will not happen on a day or even week people expect. That is the whole point - it must be done to "minimize problems".

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I see the word "phucktard" is catching fire. And for that i am deeply sorry. As a guy who lost his job for defending a guy who got called "phucking retard" for over a decade i really am! Anywho...someone needs to get this "internet thing" under control first. (and, no...killing Zero Hedge people doesn't qualify as dealing with the "internet thing.") By "getting the internet under control" i mean establishing bright white lines such that the...ahem..."information flow coming out of banks"...doesn't blow up a whole 'nother country. (Italy comes to mind!)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

time to recycle that can

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

The can has a land mine under it now.  Next will be a cluster bunker buster in every parliament everywhere.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment jse111
jse111's picture

For a moment, let us assume that markets are manipulated, controlled, maneuvered, and influenced.  Additionally and supporting this thought, few serious investors doubt that entities as plunge protection teams et al exist.  Thus, market collapses are protected but not market sectors that are alternatively favored and disfavored creating wonderful profitability scenarios for the unnamed controlling parties.

Manipulating down appears the less costly and least difficult maneuver.  Not one penny of capitol need be expended by floating certain power words loudly and often toward suspect sectors e.g., European Banking and Financials.  Words as broken, bleak, collapsing, damaged, desperate, doomed, imploding, abyss, fruitless, and hopeless to name a few classical favorites comes to mind.  The implied effect of such words initially slows the buying of affected issues with the ultimate goal being capitulation of shares at ridiculously low bargain basement prices.  At or near bottoms, those in control scoop in and carry away shunned shares with enthusiasm.  Alternatively in the interim, the muddled mass class gnashes their teeth/dentures reinforcing the persuasive negativity and share accumulation by the empowered escalates geometrically.  

 Looking at the fundamentals of issues as European Financials should be at the barest minimum interesting.  According to the iShares’ site, as of the latest posting, 12/01/2011, the PE of the European Financials Index was 10.1 with a book value of 1.2 and a 2011 performance of-26.39%.  The 01/01/2012 figures will be released in about 6-days with a personal estimate of a PE value in the 9’s and a book of 1.0 or perhaps even less.  If so, shares may be purchased at less than break-up value of the involved institutions.  Granted, these figures may precipitously drop further but one need not buy at the dead, stone bottom to generate serious coin moving forward as all major catastrophes miraculously appear to conclude.

The best to all in 2012 and a far better existence!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

I believe you are correct Tyler. Greece is now looking for an effective 75% haircut from private holders of its debt. I think the issue is whether an effective 75% haircut triggers payment from cds creditors. If it is not viewed as a "default event" by the committee that determines such then the can gets kicked down the road, but for 3 months at best.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 06:50 | Link to Comment PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

Yes, this is the most interesting part of the play.  Will there be bankruptcy?  No, I think not.  It will be a "restructuring of debt".  Lingo to deny paying the insurance benefits to all those who have paid the premiums for coverage.  Liken it to having your car totalled in an accident, and your insurance company telling you that the tires are still fine, so we're not paying you.  So there.  And, should you be angry?  Too bad.  You should have realized that insurance is the original Ponzi.  The insurance industry hates to pay, and they will not if they can wiggle out of it.  But, the problem here becomes that the people (investors) that had the foresight to see the accident about to happen were/are actually smarter than the people (institutions) that were/are driving the car.  "Restructuring", or whatever they name it, rewards the incompetent.  These institutions are not designed to pay off, only to collect and skim.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Rob Jones
Rob Jones's picture

The Europeans seem to be very good at can-kicking. Maybe it is all that soccer they play.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 03:29 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Haha that's funny!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Well since Tyler published the information about the umbilical cord the US Banks have to Europe, when the SHTF in Europe, you will have all of about 120 seconds to conduct any last business you might want to do.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Quick
Quick's picture

In 2012 - Greece will fail  -  this will bring about more EURO 'fails'  and American bank 'fails'  -  In America, Bank holidays ordered   as world econmies and banks cease to function  -  riots happen everwhere due to shortages of everything -  Bernanke will QE3, QE4, Etc. Etc. etc.,  as all banks(foriegn and domestic) will need more digits available on the keyboard  to attempt restart of the ponzi   -   Iran will become embroiled in a war, weather they like it or not and elections will not happen in the US as martial law is declared "FOR YOUR OWN GOOD".  Obama will be the puppet dick tator dancing as TPTB pull his strings !

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

With Bernanke's perpetual infinite money machine any country can exchange anything for dollars. Worthless Greek, Spanish, Italian bonds for US dollars. If oil and the commodities keep getting more expensive to keep up with the devaluations it could benefit those holding the debt politically and economically.Other countries could start demanding hard assets for collateral for purchases.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:23 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is the first troika sighting of 2012 that i'm aware of...

to think we must enter & complete groundhog day before the disorderly greek default of 2012...

night, night

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

The debtor who borrows but can't pay is an idiot = Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain.

The lender who lends to people who clearly can't pay is a lunatic = Germany, France, Netherlands, Finland

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Asia is buying up USDs again

* PBOC sets the USD/CNY at a surprisingly high 6.3115

China is freaking out

EUR about to breach 1.29 get ready for the HFT dump

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 02:44 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Economics is like weather, no one knows or can predict it a week from now

Look how many times forecasters got it wrong, sometimes they luck out if it is a big hurricane which can be seen by satellite well in advance, but they never know for sure how it will be.

Then a tornado pops out of nowhere and levels a town with no or little advance warning and no one to predict it.

On the other hand, what has been done politically, such as reducing the Bill of Rights to tabloid status, that may cause more problems than the effects of economics or weather.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 02:58 | Link to Comment Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Yields at 134%!? Are they getting their loans from that Check'in2Cash next to the nail salon out on Route 40?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 04:08 | Link to Comment WillyWonka
WillyWonka's picture

Too many comercials on this TV station...how do I fast forward thru the commercials and get to the end of the show?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 04:57 | Link to Comment nachtliche
nachtliche's picture

never underestimate how far the can can be kicked down the road.. a common zerohedge mistake.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 08:19 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

True, but in the process of kicking the can down the road, I seem to notice more shops and factories closing, more people out of work, more cuts, more debt and more deficits and pensions being butchered. In other words, you might be kicking the can down the road, but in reality it is getting heavier and heavier.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 07:23 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

ok, ok already, can to be kicked.

i'm patiently awaiting the PM disconnect from the dollar strength.

isn't gold a world wide measure of value? smelling some stink here.

someone explain how this 'can' go on much longer.

so add i do and ignore the squid til their on board.

the trade will turn sooooooon...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

gartman fartman, right out his mouth. he has underestimated the power of the can.

all the minions that joined his trade will be buying sooooon.

wouldn't want to misa trade-eh.

all my metrics except the squid manipulation say buy. fuck the 50/200 15/35!

they luv their little graphs and make a ton selling this shit

paper trade  of etf 'trust' and minors say buy-call it oversold

but physical insures against delvaluation and that must come to keep the game going.

somewhere, TPTB are accumulting as you and I. closet accumulators. don't under estimate.

low could very well be 1523...

JMFO

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Imprudent lending and borrowing has its up front joys but sooner or later both sides end up in tears. The current reality is that Europe is belatedly trying to establish a pre-nuptial agreement while lying on her death bed.

The level of debt, the budget deficits, the unemployment levels as well as the degree to which they have cross contaminated each other makes them all candidates for expulsion from the EU.

All European economies are sick in their own way and I cannot fathom how all of them getting into the same bed will heal them any faster. They all need to exit the Euro and simply keep the structure in the top drawer for a second attempt when the current mess collapses.

Too bad they never adopted gold and silver as their common currency. Much of what they are experiencing may have been avoided.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Yes.  Very good post.

I'm not sure why more people don't realize what you and I know so well.  Real, physical gold, with zero forms of fractional reserve practices is a perfectly viable common currency... for the eurozone as well as the world.

All these attempts to force everyone (every nation and thereby every individual) under a single central rule assures individuals are forever abused and enslaved, massively reduces incentives for individuals to be inventive, creative and start new endeavors (because they know the central powers will always mess with them and take whatever they create), and thereby wreck whole economies, including the so-called "global economy".

The only viable "system" is individual liberty.  This is, however, precisely what the elitist, globalist, new world order predators will never accept.  Given the monitoring and police-state technologies that exist today, people had better wake up, or all of mankind will soon become permanently enslaved.

Human beings are such a waste to accept and tolerate the crap being dumped upon them by 0.001% ~ 0.01% of the population... the extrame predators-that-be and elitist predator-class.  Break your chains, humans, or human beings are finished.

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