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Can Saudi Arabia Really Lower US Gas Prices Ahead Of The Election?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

One of the more curious conspiracy theories that has appeared in the past 24 hours, or since yesterday's so far unexplained crude oil flash crash without a subsequent corresponding jump (those only happen in equities it appears), is that Saudi Arabia has decided to come to the aid of the Obama administration two months ahead of the election, and to pump enough crude into the system to offset the pricing in of the inevitable liquidity tsunami from the now global QEternity, or at least until such time as the election passes. Partially confirming this speculation was the FT's report that Saudi Arabia has offered its main customers in the US, Europe and Asia extra oil supplies through the end of the year, a sign the world’s largest exporter is worried about the impact of rising prices on the global economy. Reuters adds, citing a Gulf source that "We would like to see the price coming down and we are working to bring it down... The price now, we believe is high, and it's not supported by fundamentals at all. It's just speculation and geopolitics." "The majority of OPEC countries prefer around $100, including Saudi Arabia," he said, adding that $100 per barrel was "right now the ideal price for the majority of OPEC countries ... the majority is all except one or two." "We think the oil market is well balanced," the Gulf source added. This comes a day after fellow OPEC member Iran, whose output has been substantially curtailed in recent months as a result of a global embargo (with notable exemptions for key Iran clients India and China) made it clear that it would be happy with crude rising to $150 for obvious reasons. Obviously Iran is in the "minority" according to the Gulf source. And while the reasoning for Saudi Arabia to do all in its power to promote amicable relations with America's leadership is easily explainable, it is far less clear if Saudi Arabia can actually do much if anything to really prop up crude production, prop down the price of crude and gas at the pump, and support Obama's reelection chances.

As the chart below shows, it appears that 10,000 tb/d is ceiling that Saudi Arabia can squeeze out: if that was not the case, Saudi Arabia would have moved to pump far more than its peak output of 9,800 tb/d in February-April when the price of Brent was well above current prices, and was trading in the $120-$125.

Furthermore, this is not the first time Saudi Arabia has made hollow promises in 20120 : earlier this year Saudi stated loud and clear it would step up its crude production aggressively then as well, primarily to offset the lost Iran output to Western partners. It did not: crude production never surpassed 10,000 tbd no matter the demand, supply or market liquidity picture.

Which is why we are once again convinced that any rhetoric out of Saudi Arabia is merely empty posturing set on facilitating the last two months in the election campaign, at a time when the average price of regular gas across the country is already just why of $4.00 according to the AAA, and as Zero Hedge reported last week, has never been higher on this day in history.

So much for the facts: as to what the media is distributing for public consumption, here it is via the FT:

“The current price is too high,” a senior Gulf-based oil official told the Financial Times. “We would like to see oil prices back to $100 a barrel.”

 

The price of Brent, the global oil benchmark, has risen 33 per cent from mid-June to a peak of $117.95 a barrel on Friday. On Monday it plunged almost $4 in just four minutes, but later recovered.

 

Saudi Arabia last launched a similar round of consultations with major oil refiners in March, weeks before it boosted its production to a 30-year high of 10m barrels a day. Riyadh is now evaluating the response from refiners.

 

The nation last month produced 9.9m b/d, but the senior official said that Riyadh was now again pumping around 10m b/d. “We are consulting our clients about their oil needs and telling them we are ready to supply more,” the senior official said.

 

Opec delegates said Riyadh was trying to bring prices down. “The Saudis are actively managing the market,” added another senior oil official from an African Opec nation. “They supplied a little less when prices dropped to $90 over the summer and they will supply more now that prices are above $115.”

No they won't. They can't. But just like all the central banks they can jawbone long enough until the market calls their bluff. As to why the outcome of the US election is now determined by the Federal Reserve (aka the S&P500) and potentially Saudi Arabia...

The signal from Riyadh comes as rising energy prices emerge as a contentious political issue in the US presidential race. Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, has accused President Barack Obama of not doing enough to bring gasoline prices down.

 

The cost of regular gasoline surged in the US last week to $3.878 per gallon, the highest level ever for this period of the year. US retail gasoline prices reached an all-time high of $4.114 per gallon in early July 2008.

 

The White House last month dusted off plans to use the strategic petroleum reserve to bring prices down. But so far Mr Obama has not authorised a release, in part because opposition from allies such as Germany and, to a lesser extent, Italy, Japan and South Korea.

So what happens when the market does call Saudi's bluff in a few weeks, and no flash crash, nor even CME margin hike can do anything to keep WTI under $100, and Brent south of $120? Well, that's when the SPR Release comes into play - a move which will sent crude and gas prices lower for about a week or two, only to surge subsequently.

Which logically means an SPR release will only be attempted by the administration with about a fortnight left before the election.

 


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Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Maybe...but they need another few "bows" and some major sucking up.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

I am rolling on the floor laughing my ass off at all the Green on UN  Blue killing going on in Afghanistan these days.

The Afghanis let their stupid would be conquerers arm them to the teeth and are now turning their weapons on the ones who gave them all those shinny new weapons.

The Afghans perfected the art of war. It's a completely decentralized form of national defense. A strategy like the Ron Paul Crew uses.

No one has ever conquered Afghanistan for a considerable period of time throughout their entire history. That's why they say Afghanistan is the country other countries go to die.

In the USA, their training sub 100IQ DHS snipers to kill Americans in our own country and have bought so far 1.6 billion hollow point bullets to do it with.

Again I'm rolling on the floor laughing my ass off hoping they continue doing so.

Their just arming the American people with all that Guns and Ammo to be turned on and used against TPTB when the time comes.

You can take the boy out of the jungle, but you can never take the jungle out of the boy.

http://i.imgur.com/sj4X7.jpg

 

We are here to protect you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV-Lou4v9-I

 

I am voting for President Barack H Obama and voting against every currently sitting congress critter incumbent up for reelection on the ballot in November.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

I wish the Ron Paul camp would pick Jesse Ventura for a VP and make an indy run for it while there is still time..

 

be good theater.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

They could tap Dennis Kucinich for a key cabinet post. I think he's out of a job.

HA HA HA HA HA

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

The Kucinich loss was a good thing for Ohio.  Watching the MSNBC hosts surprised and wimpering was a good thing for me.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

That sux, Kucinich may be foolish, but he's more genuine than the whole rest of that shit party combined.

Same loss of RP for the repugnicans.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

And the primary reason the Saudis would try to help Obama is:
A. His middle name has a nice ring to it
B. They saw that old photo of him in a turban
C. They think his bowing is the funniest goddamn thing ever, and wanna see more of it
D. They think Joe Biden is the second funniest goddamn thing ever, and they want for more years worth of Biden Blooper vids on YouTube
E. The primary characteristics they seek in a POTUS are unpreparedness, fecklessness, indecisiveness, megalomania, and weakness.
F. All of the above.
G. Other (specify)

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

in a more serious note... imho Romney wants to drill and the US could obviously drill and increase production 3-4 mmbls easily + Canada and you have the 6 million barrels needed of excess global supply to bring the price down to 50 buks a barrel.......... OPEC does not want that...... they like this wishy washy half green president that keeps us from drilling to our potential.....

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

"And if you think the mortgage cops won't find you, think again.  The OIG's investigative office has a 45-person staff, "all experienced people with 15 to 20 years as investigators and prosecutors," according to Peter Emerzian, deputy inspector general in the Office of Investigations.  They work out of 11 field offices, soon to be 14, nationwide, and they're looking for you."

 

The names of those investigators are public knowledge and the Names and Addresses will be published on the internet and easily Google Earth searched.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Solution for the 45..send them to the source. Banks that irresponsibly let freeing up "liquidity" for banks....they wont be comming back.

BS..they dont even have the original contracts...see contract law and MERS.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

With only 3-4 per office them's easy pickins.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It is complete bullshit to prosecute people for lying on mortgage applications?  Piss off...

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 01:52 | Link to Comment gonetogalt
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The Clinton Administration, through our US attorney at the time, Yes, Janet Napolitano, sent our governor to prison for essentially the same thing, got him out of office, they did.  This was primarily because Arizona was challenging Fed jurisdiction over BLM, National Parks and National Forests. Worst political fucking of the good guys I ever saw close up.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

welcome to the USSA.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Muslims trying to save their muslim.  They paid good money for the white hut.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
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It's the least the corrupt house of Saud can do for the politicians it bought to take out Iran for them.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
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“The current price is too high,” a senior Gulf-based oil official told the Financial Times. “We would like to see oil prices back to $100 a barrel.”

 

Typical Saudi bullshit.  If they want a lower price, THEN MAKE THAT THE PRICE OF WHAT THEY SELL.

They don't need NYMEX to say anything at all.  If they want $100/barrel, then charge that.  If the "prevailing price" is higher, so what.  Charge lower.

This guy is doing the usual Saudi BS and should be ignored.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment RiskAverseAlertBlog
RiskAverseAlertBlog's picture

Too bad runaway energy costs are a function of collapsing refining capacity occurring at the alter of hyperinflationary central bank policy crushing margins. With this in mind, then, there's really nothing the Saudi gang can do to diminish the uproar over the 28 redacted pages of the 9/11 Commission Report detailing this British-created-and-controlled gang's role in that day's events.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

Ah,  NO

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Good chance the SPR bullet turns out to be a dud.  If they pull that one, you know they are desperate.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

well, oil is suddenly dropping....and this is with a military build-up in the gulf..............somebody is doing something............................

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

History lesson:

What destroyed the USSR was $8.00 a barrel oil ( NOT as the hype contends that it was Ronald Reagan magic).

Iran wants 150 oil to cripple America.  50.00 would destroy Iran FAST.  Gold or no Gold that our good friends in India and China trade for oil.

Want to show your power...STOP buying Chinese, India, and any country that says "death to America"  OH>>>but you APPLE freaks just gotta have your fix, don't you come hell of America.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

One word: petrodollar.

Apple customer = brainwashed tech addict.

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Idiots who watch TV and Hollywood's shit enable The Matrix.  They are as bad as Apple idiots and The House of Saud.   Americans traded liberty for a clicker and HD.  Morons.  

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Darth Rayne
Darth Rayne's picture

I don't want any harm to come to any Americans, ever. I will be pleased when this fiat currency experiment ends, hopefully without WWIII.

 

I would really like it if gold was the worlds reserve currency. Or is that anti-American?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Darth Rayne
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This response contains spoilers.

The Saudi's are heavily invested in corporate America. USA swapped them bits of green paper with numbers on for their lovely oil. The oil enabled USA to grow very big and very strong. Saudi wanted gold but were 'convinced' that owning stocks and shares would make them immensely richer. Gold staying at the same price for year after year 'proved' the logic of the idea.

Oops.

Paper wealth + confidence = wealth

Paper wealth - confidence = bits of paper some clown has doodled on

Gold priced as a commodity? Get it while you can. Insure it. Hide it somewhere where you can move it rapidly. Perhaps on a boat.

There are many power plays occuring at the moment. USA is at the centre of many. One of which is Saudi oil vs US Gold.

Saudi need to remember that 'the value of your investment may go up or down. You may even lose more than your original investment.'

USA needs to remember that they still need oil, at least for now. When the American people start to go hungry and get angry don't be surprised to find the gas stations empty. DC know you have guns and hungry people can't walk far!

The rest of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when all US troops are recalled home to bolster homeland security.

This could get quite unseemly.

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Pretty straightforward analysis and pretty much spot on - from one angle though.  But, it is not that simple.  Social complexity and globalization are now part of the mutually assured destruction formula.  And I doubt given the military situation that people will be walking (versus driving) in the US before cities are burning around the globe.  Whose your daddy?  Keep this mind. Right or wrong - the whole system is built on the same foundation.

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Just wait until after the election Gas will go sky high

How the White House Is Keeping a Lid on Oil Prices

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

The Ben BErnank's QE printing trying to save Obama and his own job will mean $5 gas is a certainty no matter who wins.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

SPR = Strategic Political Reserve

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Don't forget Russian oil exports. Putin must be very conflicted over his desire for high prices and a communist president.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The communist president being a negro will help him decide what is what.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Putin is a patient man, and soon to be the most powerful man in the world, slava Bogu. 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Putin is not stupid.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

He's got to be pretty powerful to be able to pump ~10mbbl/d out of a country with ~80gb in proven reserves.

Odd how Saudi is only doing about the same with ~600gb proven reserves.

Maybe it is in the geology.. Or maybe it is in the "numbers".

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

China will still fuck with Chaiman Maobama just for shits and giggles. I don't think that The Chicago Way is going over too well with the rest of the world and no I don't think they give a fuck about the Daley Machine.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
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"The price now, we believe is high, and it's not supported by fundamentals at all. It's just speculation and geopolitics."

So why has oil production been flat since 2005?  If prices are high then anyone in their right mind would produce more to make that extra dollar. 

Peak oil production, peak EROEI, plain and simple.

And good luck to the House of Saud using sea water to get the last drops out of their wells.  I am sure that isn't a desperate act.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The tankers all over the planet are all full up with no place to go, and demand is dropping like a rock because of the depression in the real economy.

Some of those thousand points of light that is the House of Saud will be eliminated, and we will rename the country just "Arabia" again.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Don't forget the $3bln oil reserve the American people have generously set aside for Israel in case of need - even if it affects American domestic supply!

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

Exactly,  which is why I answered the question (below)  with a 'Ah, NO'.   They can't.

(and someone voted me down because they hate geology I guess.....)

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

I think with the combination of the QE4ever announced last week, the Chinese and Russians abandoning trade between them in dollars and deminishing oil consumption; all you're seeing is short covering and frontrunning for the stock quadwitching this Friday. The trading patterns indicate short covering.

The Dollar cannot handle lower oil prices or it will collapse (without Petrodollar sales support from higher and higher oil prices) ! After contract options expiry at the end of this month its "To Da Moon Alice"

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Who cares. It's temporary. Profit if you can but as all shorts know. Shorting this market is a fools errand.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Doug Kass is short to "Fight the Fed". 

How quaint.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Take what the Bakken has been producing in one month.

Multiply that by 5.

That is how much Saudi Arabia produces in a single day.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A man who understands numbers.  

Here's some subtle info for you.  

There are signs of a Bakken rollover far sooner than expected.  There are presently more producing oil wells in basically 1/4 of North Dakota drilled in about 4 years than in all of Saudi Arabia drilled in 70 years.  And they produce that tiny fraction you just quoted. (because the average per well is so small vs KSA)

Think about that.  

Note also there are signs of a rollover in that initial production of new holes drilled has started to fall vs what initially came out of the holes drilled a year ago.  Think about that, too.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

In other words, a well is a hole with a liar at the top?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
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The whole damn industry is based on unconscionable hype.  

When 3 out of 4 holes you drill are dry, you have to hype and tapdance your powerpoint beyond imagining to get people to write checks for those holes, especially after 2 in a row are dry.  So you go up to the money people and you lie about your imagery to get that 3rd hole drilled.

If it's dry, you move on to the next locale and lie some more.

Beyond all this there is "the oil ministry of Iraq", who presently are pumping 3 million bpd and struggle to get that.  Their oil minister is on record claiming 13 million bpd will be pumped in 2017.  That's what he pitches to lease bidders.

The most rosey independent Iraq projections for 2017 are about 4.5 million bpd and none of those project 13 mbpd EVER.

Yet what does IEA use for its outyear projections to balance future supply with expected demand?  Right, 13 mbpd.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Icing on the cake: scroll to Page 17 for depressing figures re 'production' vs time of average bakken well.  Note the source.  BEST case figures?

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/ActivityandProjectionsWilliston2010-08-03.pdf

I have acquaintances working the title side of mineral acquisitions in NE North Dakota.  Work is slowing to the point of layoffs.

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

To go with that tidbit, here's another.  The frantic drilling to get production up . . . last year each well's crew knew where they would next drill 3 wells into the future.  They knew their next 3 hole locations before they started the first.

Word is that it is often the last day of drilling now that they are told where they go next, and they're told "there's no hurry".

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
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They only need to drive the price down for two or three weeks before the election ... that's about the average attention span of the average voter.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Of the average democrat anyway.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

?

Excuse me? two or THREE weeks attention span?????????????

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The Russians are probably okay with this because after all, after the election HE will have more flexibility.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Did he end that statement with the word "Comrad"?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Not to be a dick, but I don't think Brent prices have any impact on the price of Saudi oil.

The Argus Sour Crude Index (“ASCI”) has been adopted as the benchmark price for sales of crude oil by Saudi Aramco (in 2009)[2], Kuwait (in 2009)[3] and Iraq (in 2010)[4][5].

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argus_Sour_Crude_Index

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/argus-sour-crude-index-financial.html

 

the Argus Sour Crude Index ("ASCI") which reflects the value of sour crude oil traded and delivered in the U.S. Gulf Coast market at a differential to the NYMEX settlement price for the nearest-to-delivery Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures contract1.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/ASCI_ContractSpecs_FC.PDF

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Saudi promises, actual production and actual deliveries most certainly have an impact on the price of Brent.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"actual deliveries most certainly have an impact on the price "

Extends well beyond oil, and will get worse.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

realized in arrears from what I understand.  kick the can - short game version.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Saudis were personal friends of the Bush clan.  Dont think they care about the Obama that much to get him re elected.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

saddam was close personal friends with the bush clan too. lulz

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

And the bin Ladens invested in both Arbusto Energy and the Carlyle Group, both Bush family-connected ventures.

So no, no guarantees.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

And we gave money directly to bin laden via cia to fight the russians whats your point? What does that have to do with the saudis and the presidency?

 

My point is sauids were butt buddies with the Bush family. Dont see too much inbreeding with the Obama adminsitration, prove me wrong.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Bush,_House_of_Saud

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

This is well documented.  What you said was just rediculous.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

It is easy to make the mistake of thinking that Obama does not work for the same people that the Bushes work for. 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Hello? Oil has to be consumed. Oil is not money. Have you checked the Fedex comments on China imploding?

Like no one had integrated the military build-up. China is getting worse that is the marginal change in the recent days, so there you have your oil sell-off while GOld (Not used for anything else than a currency or money is up).

 

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Except that gold is actually used for everything electronic.

 

Electronics is the single largest area of gold usage in technology. In 2011, gold usage in electronics was 320 tonnes. Gold is the material of choice in many electronic applications, especially transportation, telecommunications, information technology and other high performance and safety critical applications. A typical mobile device can contain in the region of 50mg of gold. As a result of the growth of the global electronics market, long term annual consumption of gold in electronics has been positive.

 

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Saudis upping their oil production: a modern 'american' myth.

Returns every six months or so...

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Print more Oil...Duh!

Wait!....CTRL-P doesnt equal  "control pump"?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

+1 jawboning bullshit.  Bigger game being played with recent "unrest."

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Chicom trolls upping their bullshit anti-American bigotry and propaganda post production: a modern Chinese Citizenism (and ZeroHedge) reality.

Returns every six minutes or so...

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Maybe if JP Morgan can become a COMEX Oil Vault then the price can drop. 

2 day self clearing process obviously.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Blackfox
Tue, 09/18/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Just rehypothecate some into existence. It's better to have someone call your bluff and take delivery of oil that doesn't exist

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

For God sake give Amtrak the fiscal money to cut ticket prices in half rather then hoping for oil salvation.

Its the least yee can do given that they do not own or control the track which is unheard of in Europe.

Empty trains do not decrease your oil bill - they increase it.

There is little point in running empty trains .....if half price tickets don't work , reduce it to a third , if that does not work reduce it to quarter price...............

Fill them up with passsengers............release the oil to do real work rather then car consumption.....build more rail lines.

Keep doing this for 20 years.

No need for Saudi oil then.

Keep it simple stupid.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Thanks for the idea, but most Americans prefer to be strip searched and finger fucked before they travel, so they'll take a plane.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

I have wondered time and again why none of the smaller railroads have not gone back to including a passenger car in with a regularly scheduled freight run. Given a low enough price point and the novelty of rail travel for many in this generation, one would think it to be worth a try...

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

oil prices are more a function of the bernank & gubbermint spending than of the sauds. they just don't want to be blamed. high oil prices are here to stay. $4/gal for gasoline is cheap, better let that sink in.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

You could tell last Thursday on Q-Ever day that something was up. Oil just didn't jump like the other assets.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Buzz

Oil prices are also a function of the Saudis spending & consuming...they can spend a lot and burn a lot of BTUs which they then do not export at $100 oil.

This flows back into your lovely banks making them richer and the average American poorer.

Same shit as the 70s , its just bigger shit this time.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Buzz

Saudi energy consumption increased 7.4 % in 2011

US energy con. decreased 0.6 %

Because the bankers have set up non national currency systems they can keep the national systems of countries on a external oil leash.

They can destroy countries using energy arbitrage.

Any country without the $ as a currency should work to stop the hard currency leakage to the Saudis and others.

The euro is working as a $ proxy now.

All the Euro countries are the FEDs little Bitches  -working to make its nice little banks whole again.

It was perhaps the true function of the Euro - destroy nations one by one.

Greek total energy consumption in 2011 decreased 4.6% , oil imports 7.9 %

Irish total energy consumption in 2011 decreased  9% , oil imports down 10.4%

If we had our own currency we could reduce this by even more without destroying internal demand.....but our function in this life is to keep up external demand.............

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the usa doesn't import very much from the ksa anymore. their consumption has gone up markedly though:

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=SA#pet

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Countries are mere conduits to the cartel although they treat their bases of operations with more respect until its time to move on to newer pastures.

Once the age of oil became global in nature they could bypass the labour held withen static coal based economies.

Hopefully they might just have a big problem now as the supply chains are just too long at $100 oil.

Of course if we go back to the Nation state era they will just kill you in a great patriotic war.

Theres no winning really.......it must be quite funny looking at this mess from the top.

High Gold & oil prices are a function of American and Euroland capital export.

The Euro built the BRICs

China coal consumption went ballistic in 2002.......Hmmmmm what happened in 2002 again ? physical euro entry  ,sounds dirty does it not ? - thats because it is.

Post 1980 and especially after the Big bang of 86 & 87 we have continued to export mountains , no mountain ranges of capital for no purpose other then labour arbitrage games that have enriched the few.

We are all a product of a pointless bankers experiment.

If the Euro falls Gold & oil will dive as the capital export machine will be shut off in Europe.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

See Chris Cook at at the Oil Drum:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/03/chris-cook-spikes-and-speculation...–-flash-crash-part-deux.html

It's all been done before.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Riiiiiiggghhht.  Those evil speculators.  Fine, impress me, make margins 100% and let's see what happens to oil, take delivery or get the fuck out of the business.  Then who will the world blame?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Maybe, how busy are our current black operatives?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment dbTX
dbTX's picture

There is no need for Saudi oil now, North Dakota has twice as much as Saudi Arabia, we're just not producing it.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

Every barrel of oil sold under $118 is killing Iran finacially.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Slightly Insane
Slightly Insane's picture

Tyler, point not stated :  Mitt Romney will open up drilling on public lands and offshore.  Should that happen, the price of oil will drop.  The Saud's want Obama re-elected so that the cartel is protected.  Once Obama is back in the seat, they can let oil go $150 - $250 a barrel.  This is the conspiracy not well stated.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Good point.  Plus Governor Romney, I think, will carry out his plan to advance alternative energy for transportation, which is natural gas.  The US has a tremendous amount of NG.  70% of all the oil we use right now is transportation fuel.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

Harbanger,

Quick, if the USA has 100 years of natural gas at current consumption, how much does it have at 5% annual growth?

Answer: maybe 20 years.  Do the math, man.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

You tell me to do the math and then tell me that we're going to run out of NG in 20 years.  Do you expect to be taken seriously? 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"Yes we can!"

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment exartizo
exartizo's picture

...the handwriting is ALREADY on the wall and Obama has ALREADY been re-elected by the only ones who matter... the ruling financial elite class of the United States.

The outcome was potentially in doubt UNTIL Romney said he would replace Bernanke... whom.. as we all know.. the ruling financial elite class are very happy with.

Recently, of note the MSM has been aggressively playing up lots of negative internal stuff in the Romney campaign.

Romney should have kept his mouth shut, and played along with liking Netanyahu.

At least he had that piece of press over Obama.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

"can-saudi-arabia-really-lower-us-gas-prices"

Saudi Arabia? No. OPEC? Yes. And they regularly do so, for example around special OPEC-meetings.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Pejorative Requiem
Pejorative Requiem's picture

"No they won't. They can't. But just like all the central banks they can jawbone long enough until the market calls their bluff."

There's an awful lot of string pulling going on........ the Saudis CAN influence the "price" of oil. For about a week. Japan could occupy the Soduku islands for a longer time.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

In his own words.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3aGJfDSg4

 

Maybe he can redistribute gas ?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment entropy93
entropy93's picture

Ultimately oil supply and demand are both highly inelastic. Any major moves have to come from adding oil to storage, or removing oil from storage. If Iran sneezes oil goes into storage purchased by speculators, if Saudi Arabia makes promises oil leaves storage sold by speculators, or in some cases possibly the Saudi's themselves.

They likely have very little spare capacity, but can pretend to pump more by dumping stored oil on the market.

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

so retarded

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Yes, I know this is a typo, but imagine if it is the year 20,120 and we're still doing the same shit.

 

"Furthermore, this is not the first time Saudi Arabia has made hollow promises in 20120 : earlier this year Saudi stated loud and clear it would step up its crude production aggressively then as well, primarily to offset the lost Iran output to Western partners. It did not: crude production never surpassed 10,000 tbd no matter the demand, supply or market liquidity picture."

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment grunk
grunk's picture

So on one hand we have the Saudis trying to shill for Obama with more oil pumping.

Then we have the Israelis aching for a conflict with Iran playing the American/Democratic/Jewish voter card.

That guy on Coast to Coast last night, Craig Hulet, was right. The New World Order is already in place and it's not a conspiracy.

Let's declare war on Antarctica. Penguins won't fuck with us.

 

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Morrotzo
Morrotzo's picture

But what about GWAR retaliation?

 

 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

two words that Obama only need mumble to make them pump "regime change" 

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 05:52 | Link to Comment GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

Seems like there's a big seller in the futures market, three times in the past 3 days big volume sales have knocked the price down $1.00 or more (the biggest move being on Monday).  Impossible to tell whether it is:

a) a hedge fund unwinding a large long position built up in the run up to QE3

b) a US mutual fund unwinding a commodity SPV due to ongoing tax battle with the US IRS

c) market manipulation by US gov or a proxy like JPM

d) a large oil trading firm reacting to Saudi threats of increased pumping or a longer term macro view

e) other...

And does it really matter which it is?

BTFD.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 05:59 | Link to Comment GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

Nanex investigation of the oil flash crash on Monday:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/oil-crash-idINL1E8KIB5J20120918

"There was most likely a large fundamental seller in the market yesterday," said Eric Scott Hunsader, Chief Executive of Nanex, a trading consultancy that regularly conducts detailed forensic analysis of erratic market activity.

But assuming a single seller got the ball rolling lower, it was algorithmic traders that almost certainly extended and intensified the decline, causing a 20-fold spike in volume as risk limits or automated price triggers fueled selling.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

clueless in seattle

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