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Canadian Economy Shrinks For First Time Since 2009; Recession Next?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Don't look know but Canada just confirmed the first signal of a recession, after its GDP printed negative (on expectations of an unchanged number) for the first time since Q2 2009, due to a drop in exports and oil output, most of it blamed naturally on "transitory" factors. Odd how the US used the transitory line for months until it all turned out to be permanentory. What, however, is truly hilarious is the continued denial to look facts in the face as confirmed by the following three Canadian sellside analysts, who seem positively giddy that the number was major miss to expectations: their take home, just like as in the case of Canadian banks having some of the lowest TCE ratios in the world: "ignore it." Perhaps when next quarter Canadian GDP prints negative again, and the economy is officially in a recession, then the delightful comedy crew of what passes for "analysts" up north will have some words of caution finally. As for whether a recession confirmation in 3 months will be negative for the same banks which are downplaying both the GDP and its risk to their near world record leverage, we leave to the far more erudite, and far less shoot-from-the-hip Globe and Mail.

SAL GUATIERI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS

"Its worth noting that the economy did grow at a fairly respectable rate, plus 3 percent in the previous two quarters, and there were some temporary factors that slowed the economy in the second quarter. The supply chain disruptions in the auto industry, wildfires in Alberta and importantly, the economy appears to have ended the quarter on a fairly healthy note, June GDP up 0.2 percent. That suggests growth will rebound to about 2 percent in the third quarter."

"For the Bank of Canada, growth clearly came in well below its expectations back in July, when it thought the economy would grow 1.5 percent. On balance the report will likely weigh towards keeping the Bank of Canada on the sidelines and we believe they will not raise interest rates until next summer."

"There may have been a knee-jerk (currency) reaction, but I'm not seeing any long-lasting effect. Again, the report does not carry many implications for monetary policy, even though quarterly growth came in a little weaker than expected, June GDP came in a little better than expected, raising hopes that the economy bounced back in the third quarter."

BENJAMIN TAL, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT CIBC

"People should not pay too much attention to this number. It does not represent the real health of the Canadian economy. We all know the second-quarter was impacted in a very significant way by a supply disruptions in the auto sector and energy sector. Those two sectors really were significantly impacted. We know exports went down significantly during this quarter and you will see a nice bounce back in the third-quarter."

"Having said that, if we assume that the U.S. economy will remain relatively soft, exports will remain relatively soft and be under pressure. So although this picture in this quarter overstates the weakness of the Canadian economy and should not be taken at face value, given the temporary factors I mentioned -- this gives the new mix that we should expect over the next 6 to 12 months, which is a somewhat weaker export story given the fact that the U.S. economy will underperform."

PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA:

"Going into the report, expectations had been flat GDP growth. So a little bit weaker than expected, unfortunately showing a decline, though it is a fairly minimal drop, a decline nonetheless. Weakness is largely coming from the net export component, and final domestic demand did manage to strengthen to 3.0 percent from a 1.8 percent gain in the first quarter. Nonetheless, it is indicating a marked weakening in the second quarter, certainly below the Bank of Canada's recent forecast suggesting growth at 1.5 percent, though subsequent comments by Bank of Canada Governor Carney did suggest the possibility we could see a small decline."

"Certainly this is reason to keep policy accommodative, holding steady, the overnight rate (target) at 1 percent. At this point, I think they'll view some of the weakness as being the result of transitory factors, and watch the data for indications of a bounceback in growth. And the monthly GDP numbers sort of indicate a start to that process, with growth ticking up to 0.2 in June after the 0.3 drop in May.

"The quarterly numbers (are) weaker than expected plus showing that decline, so as a result it could be a slight negative for the Canadian dollar. However it might be tempered a bit by the June GDP coming in stronger than expected."

 

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Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:14 | 1618495 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

"People should not pay too much attention to this number. It does not represent the real health of the Canadian economy," which is actually much much worse.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:20 | 1618517 russki standart
russki standart's picture

We must be getting closer and closer to the Labor day weekend when news from Canada is considered news. People should not pay too much attention to Canada, anyways. Who carez what happens in the great white north, anyways? Other than Poutine and  French Girls, what does Canada have to offer anyways other than Canadians (boring).

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:24 | 1618531 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

I don't know either but I do know that I'm going to short the shit out of this green opening.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:35 | 1618561 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

coundown to another ZH feature in the Globe and Mail

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:48 | 1618591 sushi
sushi's picture

Another ZH feature in the G&M?

The G&M keeps running the last ZH feature. They just change the release date. News re-use is cheap. Saves on labour costs in the face of recession.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/fabrice-taylor/take-bloggers-bank-warning-with-several-grains-of-salt/article2147693/

 

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1618647 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Recession?  Ha!  ZIRP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:31 | 1618739 eisley79
eisley79's picture

@russki

both of those are from quebec, so why dont you stick to there.

At the end of the day 51% of Canada's economy is selling stuff to the US.  When the US finishes obliterating itself, they will take us down with them as well.  There is no alternative.  But, we will forever be locked at the hips, we provide all the natural resources, they provide all the military...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1618844 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I like Quebec, I have spend a few nights on Ste.Catharine checking out the local clubs and making temporary new friends.  The people are really nice when you pay with USD.

Unfortunately, I have to agree that US will ultimately drag Canada down. Too bad.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:05 | 1618889 unerman
unerman's picture

Lol, we don't like USD here. Good one!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:27 | 1618983 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I beg to differ. When I offered to pay with USD, she said Oui Oui, I now have moneee for florida. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:48 | 1619053 B-rock
B-rock's picture

Don't judge the country based on a gracious host.  We know the US$ is a piece of shit.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:23 | 1618718 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernia_oil_field

Production commenced on November 17, 1997 and Hibernia has proven to be the most prolific oil well in Canada, with initial production rates in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from a single well. A dedicated fleet of shuttle tankers continuously operates between the platform and an onshore transshipment facility at Whiffen Head, adjacent to an oil refinery at Come By Chance.

The development of Hibernia involves a considerable amount of drilling services. As of January 1, 2007, over 50 development wells have been successfully drilled from the platform, including several world record "extended reach drilling" wells.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Nova_oil_field

Terra Nova is an oil field development project 350 kilometres off the coast of Newfoundland. Discovered in 1984 by Petro-Canada, the field is the second largest off Canada's East Coast. Terra Nova is the first harsh environment development in North America to use a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the Terra Nova FPSO. Production from the field began in January 2002.

The oil is produced from the Late Jurassic-aged sandstone within the Jeanne d'Arc Formation. The reservoir was deposited as a large braided fluvial system. The discovery well was Terra Nova K-08 drilled in 1984 by Petro-Canada.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Rose_oil_field

White Rose is an oil field development project 350 kilometres off the coast of Newfoundland. Husky Energy is the operator and 72.5 per cent interest holder in the White Rose oil fields.

Discovered in 1984, the White Rose offshore oil field is located in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin 350 km east of St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The field consists of both oil and gas pools, including the South White Rose oil pool. The oil pool covers approximately 40 km2 and contains an estimated 440 million barrels of recoverable oil. White Rose is the second harsh environment development in North America to use a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the SeaRose FPSO. Production from the field began on November 12, 2005.

(Watch the first season of Ice Road Truckers. The hauling to gas and oil sites is very interesting.But I'm too lazy to search out information on those fields.)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:42 | 1618779 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Yes, and if I'm not mistaken, every well is in decline...

Now keep in mind that I am from Gander, and I do live in the other side of the world now, but I'm pretty sure "She's all in decline now, By's".

 

Now if somebody reeeeeallly wanted to look for something in Newfoundland... well the old Hopebrook gold mine on the south coast is still there... mothballed...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:26 | 1618978 fonestar
fonestar's picture

"Who carez what happens in the great white north, anyways? Other than Poutine and  French Girls, what does Canada have to offer anyways other than Canadians (boring)."

 

How about fishing, beef, natural gas, bitumen, copper, zinc, nickel, gold, silver, phosphate, iron-ore, highest grade diamonds on Earth, fur, grain, water, raw timber.... did I miss a few hundred others?

Read much?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:31 | 1618995 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Tsk, tsk Fonestar, you have no sense of humor. Canada is a good country to live in, and I have in vested in countless gold mines, junior oil and gas plays, base metal mines, I even shorted  SinoForest.  You assume boring is bad... would you rather live in the middle east, where life is always interesting?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:34 | 1619009 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I guess there's worse ways to be than boring.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:36 | 1619217 gerryscat
gerryscat's picture

russki standart, your an idiot, or at least have a bad sense of humor.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:35 | 1618562 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, nevermind these numbers, we've got the Bernank doing the 'QE carrot on a stick' for the last 8 months, which will never actually be delivered.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:13 | 1618496 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Goddamnit! If the fucking ice roads lasted longer the Canuck economy would be growing.

Did you check out those oil tanks the Polar Bear and his buddy Rick hauled way out to fuckmeintheassmiddleofnowhere Canada?

Fuck of a lot of oil storage for a tiny little town.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:23 | 1618524 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Hey Gully Foyle, any ideas on how to sell the Canadian Real Estate market short? I plan to allocate at least .0125 percent of my lunch money to this trade. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:35 | 1618563 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Seeing as how the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is backstopping every sh*t mortgage here in Canada, and the CDN government (read: CDN taxpayer) is on the hook for all of the CMHC's debts, you may wish to pass on shorting the CDN real estate market and just short the whole damn country...

 

-FN

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:38 | 1618570 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

HXD

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:57 | 1618851 russki standart
russki standart's picture

What is HXD? TSE symbol?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:11 | 1618915 pitz
pitz's picture

HXD is a short on the TSX, not 'the entire economy'.  The TSX actually bears very little resemblance to the Canadian economy, and many firms (ie: the banks) are set up quite nicely for an economic downturn. 

Use HXD at your own peril (its motherfucking expensive too....)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:33 | 1619004 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Thank you.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:45 | 1619067 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

quite obvious now why you're called financial newbie...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:20 | 1618498 hugovanderbubble
Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1618550 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Sounds like a good plan... but any downsides/risks to holding an inverse product like HIF? I've been told to avoid the leveraged inverse version (HFD)...

 

Thanks,
-FN

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:14 | 1618500 rocker
rocker's picture

Buy the Dip.  LOL  With your money 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:15 | 1618501 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

I wonder if this will cause Shark Tank to be cancelled, I really like watching those crazy Canadian inventors

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:33 | 1618558 sabra1
sabra1's picture

tonite it's back to back beachcombers, forest rangers, and rainbow country! closer to midnite, reruns of the pig and whistle!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:15 | 1618504 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

A contracting ecomony from the largest importer of our <what's left> domestically made goods has to be a good thing.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:18 | 1618512 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I believe they call this 'moving sideways' and the obvious solution here in New Bizarro World is to print more fake money. That helps.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:25 | 1618535 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

...that helps some people.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:16 | 1618507 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Uh oh, eh?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:16 | 1618508 falak pema
falak pema's picture

How can Canada shrink with its four western states, paradise on earth, according to Count 'whats his name' who posts so superbly on ZH, and its TAr sands mountain of black wealth that the USA guzzles like an enfamished Leviathan...?

Something I'm missing, unless the Real estate ponzi, the prize plum of sterile FIRE economy, has now invaded the mindset of staid, run of the mill, Canadians. Gezzaks, are the Mounties now as dumb as their American counterparts?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1618552 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

The police up here seem to be on the same steroid and amphetamines programs that their American counterparts are on, not sure if they're quite as dumb as the Americans though.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:52 | 1619261 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

@ falak

This year the idiot Canuckistanians gave a majority to the oxymoronic 'Progressive Conservatives', again.  Their members are all cut from the same cloth as the rest of the worlds' bought and paid for oligarchs, and have a long history of undermining Cdn. sovereignty, yet the duped electorate keep buying their constantly reneged promises. 

Also, Mark Carney, the Governor of their Central Bank, is a 13 year GS vet...

Does that help paint the red on the maple leaf a bit?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:17 | 1618511 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

No worries, Bernanke will "fix" their economy too.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:28 | 1618545 Savvy
Savvy's picture
  1. Naw, we have our own Bubbles and likes him better

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41ZEanjORQI

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:36 | 1618567 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I LOVE TPB, best show ever!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:19 | 1618513 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Black swans getting ready to migrate south for the winter?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:23 | 1618521 The Axe
The Axe's picture

That sucks if  you also have to own a bunch of Chinese restaurants in Canada...since rough rice just hit 17 dollars from 10 earlier this year....shit now thats inflation..

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:09 | 1618908 pitz
pitz's picture

Yeah but how much 'rough rice' does a Chinese restaurant use relative to its sales?  A few cents worth of rice is nothing when you're selling it for $5 as fried rice.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:23 | 1618525 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Shrinkage like George Costanza just out of the pool

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:31 | 1618526 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

We'd be negative too if it wasn't for all this stimulus/money-printing.  I'd rather have the Canadian economy than the American economy.  At least, Canada makes stuff.  Plus, they have a much healthier banking system, if I'm not mistaken.  Canada has survived this global economic crisis much better than the US and Europe.

Or maybe I'm wrong...I'm just an ignorant American.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:32 | 1618556 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1618674 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Johnny Lawrence,  Canada makes nothing. The manufacturing sector is practically non-existent. The banking sector is very highly leveraged.  The main asset of canadian banks are real estate loans. Canadian real estate pricing is in the midst of the mother of all bubbles. The average home in Vancouver BC sells for $1,000,000 USD, and is out of the reach of more than 95% of the population. Canadians are borrowing against their homes and buying cars, boats, second homes etc. If  the value of the loans backing canadian real estate dropped by 5% or more, the banks would be in distress. Sound familiar?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:06 | 1618892 pitz
pitz's picture

Nearly all of the at-risk loans at the Canadian banks are backed by the federal government through the CMHC.  So failure of the loans ultimately results not in the bank going bankrupt, but rather, in the emmission of a whole shit-ton of national debt.    At some point, this sucks tremendous amounts of investment capital out of the system, and causes interest rates to eventually reverse and begin a long cycle upwards. 

Certainly not going to be pretty going forward, but I wouldn't worry too much about the big chartered banks.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:36 | 1619022 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Thank you. It is clear that the banksters also control Canada. Privatize gains, socialize losses, good deal if you can get it. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:15 | 1619357 GoinFawr
Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:25 | 1618533 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Ask any common person on the street, you'll get the same answer you get in the U.S. What do you mean the recession ended? It is still a recession for the average person.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:26 | 1618538 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Tyler,

Thanks so much for continuing to cover whats going on up here in Canada.

As a Canuck, it is sometimes hard to find a critical view or analysis of the Canadian economy and its banking system, which we constantly tout as some sort of invincible juggernaut of financial acumen.

While I'm nervous/frightened about the future if Canada's fortunes do start to wane, it does harden my resolve to be informed about and prepared for the coming downturn.  It is fair to say that I have your blog, as well as a (very) few others, to thank for that information.

Hope to hear more from you about this story as it unfolds...

 

Cheers,

-FN

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:33 | 1618541 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I had to work for a decade with ass hats like this on Bay Street, I nearly went mental until I realized I didn't need to it anymore.

edit: to clarify Bay St is like our Wall Street, and correction nope I did go mental.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:29 | 1618548 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Wait until the markets realize the actual debt situation of some Canadian provinces, such as France's subsidiary (Quebec), which had a greekish debt/GDP ratio not so long ago, and getting worst.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1618551 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

evil bloggers!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:35 | 1618564 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Not long before Reggie Middleton turns his eyes towards Canadian real estate.  I predict an analysis post within a month.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:37 | 1618569 long_and_short
long_and_short's picture

what does Canada have to offer.

The sorting opporunity of a lifetime.  If you ZH are truly doom and gloom when the US sneezes Canada catches pneumonia.

This my American brethren is your canary in the coal mine for North America.  With resources pushing higher and Canada cant print a +ve number - look out below. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:40 | 1618577 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

yes Canada is a very organized country "a great sorting opportunity"

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:20 | 1618709 sushi
sushi's picture

 

what does Canada have to offer.

---

“virgin rape oil”

What other country offers such an outstanding product?

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/trends/trends-features/why-canadians-should-soak-up-a-canola-oil-revolution/article2147530/

As an added plus, Canada is not only well sorted, it is also highly alphabetasized.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:08 | 1618902 pitz
pitz's picture

Rape is a very important crop in western Canada, don't diss it!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:38 | 1618573 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Mortgage delinquincies rising in Canada...deafults increasing as well....GL to them...same problem as here.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:44 | 1618580 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW look at the DUH its spectacular once again +100 opening pop! Based on what? Promise of more free crack. Carrot and stick Bubbles Bernank isnt going to deliver the diamond encrusted QE everyone is drooling over. It will disappoint huge, at best he'll kick the can a few more months but the party is over.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:43 | 1618582 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Hands down the worst 3 month newsflow since 2008.

Yet stocks haven't really corrected much off their 3-year highs.

Reminds me of 1994 - 1997 where the SPX went up in a relentless fashion, where occasional 12% - 15% corrections were quickly forgotten.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:47 | 1618587 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

94-97? Youd have to be an idiot to make such a comparison, nothing at all is even remotely similar. So stop being such a damn idiot.

And if youre 'all in' again like you were for your foaming at the mouth debt ceiling deal run up from DUH 12,700 youre about to get bent over again big time.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:50 | 1618596 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I love it when he gets all misty-eyed :-)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:51 | 1618597 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Robo is right in that the newsflow is awful, yet the market is ignoring it.  But, the lesson I've learned is that when the stock market disconnects from economic reality, then something will eventually have to give.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:55 | 1618611 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Market does refuse to collapse. Buffet buying. Talk about a single straightforward headwind though.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:00 | 1618864 Kayman
Kayman's picture

RobotTrader

Reminds me of 1994 - 1997.  Yeah... the US economy had businesses that actually made things. People had good paying jobs. Now we manufacture binary money, and eye candy on Chinese computer screens.

I admire your optimism, but I am preparing for another leg down.

Get out of your room and travel thru the country.  It is not good. And all the hopium that Goebels could muster didn't change the facts on the ground in Stalingrad.

Merry Christmas from Stalingrad !

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:00 | 1618866 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Hey Robo, how would you short the financial and housing sector in Canada?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:48 | 1618590 Life of Illusion
Life of Illusion's picture

 

Canada has resources and CIC has an office in Totonto.

 

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:49 | 1618592 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

I remember the huge chop in 1994, when the bond market was going crazy and everyone thought interest rates were going through the roof.

Pretty much the same as today, the market started grinding up off those lows and never looked back for 3 years.  Only this time interest rates are still at world record lows, making room for huge speculative fever to build up.

By the way Sheep-Dog, are you still short?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:53 | 1618604 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Heres Robo again pretending he doesnt see a market only supported by $trillions in free money printing, and wants to compare it to 94-97?

Youve got to be the biggest idiot ever, or Tylers loser brother in law. 

BTW I was never short anything except a few long time LEAP puts which have paid off spectacularly, such as RIMM from $110 and others.

Gold since $400, silver since $5. 100's increases while you hold your loser bag of few %ers.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:54 | 1618606 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

You had the tech boom of the mid-90s.  Very different than today, when this is no broad-based innovation occurring.  The more appropriate historical comparisons are the Great Depression and 90s Japan.  Huge rallies and huge declines over a drawnout fundamental downtrend.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:56 | 1618612 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all the same to cherry picker rear view mirror boy Robo. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:44 | 1619241 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

RoboTarder is in denial and can't accept that we have a vicious secular bear market on U.S. indexes, which has whipsawed buy and holds with razor blades for 12 years now. In real terms, we're at about 1988 levels, or 23 years of buy & hold gains up in smoke (not to even mention all the adverse tax consequences for these bagholders during that time).

Wait until we really turn Japanese, ala Nikkei from 40k to >9k over a 21 year period IN NOMINAL TERMS.

RoboTarder's mom will kick him out of the basement.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:37 | 1619028 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Oh yeah.  a tiny little fact.  In 1994 the US wasn't the world's largest DEBTOR.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:50 | 1618595 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

FCX just cleared the prior highs. Deep cyclicals are catching some decent bids.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:56 | 1618600 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Two great reports out:

ISM NY now below 50! Yes, even NY is now in contraction mode. Revenues were down 40% compared with August 2010!! Businesses had difficulty with financing. 

OECD reports drastic downshift in both export and import activity in BRIC and develpoed nations. Wow. 

The slowing of growth was radical: imports by the top Group of Seven (G7) industrialised countries and the main so-called BRICS emerging economies expanded by 1.1 percent in the second quarter, down from growth of 10.1 percent in the first quarter.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:52 | 1618602 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

17 days worth of JPM shorts are now underwater

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:54 | 1618608 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Now the loser all-in long from DUH 12,700 will post each stock gain thruout the day. Dont you ever just shut the hell up?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:54 | 1618605 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

At the moment Canada's tea party goverment does not recognize reality. They are building prisions to lock up people for unreported crimes. The crime rate is way down, the reason according to the goverment, people dont report crimes anymore. There were actually more people murdered in Canada than Mexico last year.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:01 | 1618633 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

40 headless bodies discovered in a shallow grave in Toronto's Rosedale neighborhood, according to authorities this was a revenge attack for a Maple Syrup deal gone bad

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:39 | 1619037 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Actually what happened was 40 cult members from the US visited Canada, found it so boring that they blew off their heads because the other side just HAS to be more interesting.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1618682 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Uhhh I don't remember about findings in Canada of mass graves filled with corpses of people killed by bludgeon weapon hits to the head?

Let's try to keep our senses. Canada is in trouble yes, but not as fucked up as Mexico.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:21 | 1618956 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

more murder in canada than mexico? are you fucking retarded?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:55 | 1618609 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Canada has one nice housing bubble I do believe.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1618644 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

the only problem with the bubble idea is that the likes of Mish and Turner have been proclaiming a bubble since 40% ago (sort of like how Roubini has been calling a Gold Bubble since 1000)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:48 | 1619078 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

Correction: Vancouver has one nice housing bubble I do believe.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:46 | 1619501 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Vancouver more evidently, but even in Quebec which is never mentionned as a bubble hotbed with 70k 25 years ago (which was barely twice the median income) you could get a nice 5-10 year old house. Today, you make 45k but houses are 200k minimum if you want a city nearby and some utilities.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:55 | 1618610 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

never seen rel. volume so low on finviz it's below 0.5  - no love today

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:56 | 1618614 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"Recession Next?"

Yes, GOLD going to $200/oz next, cause unemployed people

cannot afford to buy it.. :)))

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618656 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Foolish Child.  They are selling the reminants of their jewelry right now, which will be melted into $10,000/OZ gold bars owned by the top 5%.  Go sell that 12K high school necklace and buy a case of beer.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:33 | 1618745 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, but the unemployed CAN afford to buy bubble stocks? E-Trade taking EBT cards now?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:00 | 1618869 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Sometimes I feel like we're FORCED into buying bubble stocks.

 

I have a fair bit of money saved away in a self-directed RRSP.  Unfortunately, I'm forced to either sit on a bunch of cash I can't do anything with, or invest it into the equity markets.  My fixed income options are severely limited to Canadian treasuries & bonds, and I certainly can't buy any physical PMs!

I suppose if I do have to sit on dollars, I should start considering buying up USD in case the CDN tanks should commodities crash...

 

-FN

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:05 | 1618891 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Surely you can buy the Central Fund, backed by physical precious metals...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:18 | 1618947 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Bingo! The whole world forced into increasingly risky assets looking for a better than inflationary return. House of cards.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:01 | 1618634 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Not many people up there, and still doing better than the USA.  Once again the USA is coming in 15th and looking behind to see who is 16th.  Not a good sign for a world leader.  All nations will go into recession before this is over. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:32 | 1619002 angela03
angela03's picture

I've had opportunity to talk to many a stiff  from Alaska's excrement. Most are in disbelief at the low level of wages in the U.S.. Interestingly, here in the states, we are all told by our big business leaders that spoiled union workers make way too much money for us to compete globally. Apparently that same sentiment doesn't extend to the highly productive endeavors taking place on Wall Street and in the banking industry in general. The fact is we have rapidly transitioned from a country with a strong, productive and affluent middle class, to a country largely populated by serfs. This is no more evident than in the latest fix for the housing market which will allow hedge funds to buy up all that toxic mortgage debt from the FED for pennies on the dollar. The same stuff U.S. taxpayers paid 100 cents on the dollar for. Neo-fuedalism is the term given to this  new old program. Hank Paulson will write in his memoirs about how he made it all happen. Of course lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Tim Geitner, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers,  Ben Bernake, and Alan Greenspan will also claim credit. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618645 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

AAPL the worlds most beloved (overowned) stock..not confirming  the latest "rally".

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1618681 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Speculators chasing bens carrot should prepare to meet the stick instead.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:31 | 1618740 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Damn straight virgil! This can ONLY end bad!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:50 | 1618814 angela03
angela03's picture

At this point I'm not sure which carrot I should be chasing.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:43 | 1619057 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Yep, this time it is different....

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:29 | 1618738 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

Not a big fan of Mish but this is a must read

 

Vancouver Housing Bubble
Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:46 | 1618794 angela03
angela03's picture

Not being a fan of numnuts Mish is something to be proud of.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:10 | 1619154 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

sorry please disregard the Mish article

it was from 2006

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1618749 Justaman
Justaman's picture

What a bunch of knobs.

"I was the last one left after the nuclear holocaust, eh. The whole world had been destroyed, like U.S. blew up Russia and Russia blew up U.S. Fortunately, I had been offworld at the time. There wasn't much to do. All the bowling alleys had been wrecked. So's I spent most of my time looking for beer." - Famous Canadian Bob McKenzie

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1618768 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Got worthless home equity?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:58 | 1618782 angela03
angela03's picture

Speaking as a tip earner here in the U.S. I can tell you a drop off in the Canandian economy will have zero impact on my income. That is because Canadians are the cheapest bastards on the planet. That's really saying something when you consider said planet includes millions of Euro squeezing Europeans. Thanks to the Bernake getting busy devaluing the dollar we've been getting more Canadians than usual, anxious to spend their better than parity loonies. Oh happy days.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:46 | 1618790 WiretapWilly
WiretapWilly's picture

CAD/USD is just so overvalued.  Short of the century.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:46 | 1618793 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Interest rates will go up. Bankruptcies will skyrocket. The Looney will implode.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:48 | 1618802 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Benji Tal sounds like a fucking double speak fuck-tard....

Typical Bankster bullshit.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:25 | 1618945 Contra_Man
Contra_Man's picture

Hear.., Hear! Fook off you anti-factual never proven wrong double-speak Gmen AML Bankster mother fooking group of fooking Fooks!

Cdn. Bankster Going Down with Standfor(?) in Jan 2012... HFD-T Bitchez!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:51 | 1618817 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

FUCK YOU... russki standart.

You sack of mouldy shit.

Fuck off and die.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1618840 angela03
angela03's picture

Such language!!! I friggin love it. Now this is what I call uncensored opinion. Fan-fucking-tastic.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:08 | 1618901 russki standart
russki standart's picture

You canadians are so touchy, lacking a sense of humor. I wil eventually die so your wish someday will come true. In the meantime, what is really on your mind?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1618845 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Muther Canuckers.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:00 | 1618846 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

SD One is this some bogus rally or what?  bear mkts have some big short term  moves though.  All based on " If you return next month we have something really special planned for you"..the disconnect between credit mkts, overall reality and stocks Is like nothing Ive seen.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:08 | 1618893 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Ben meet your cubicle for the school year..lol  Your Boxed in benji. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:14 | 1618928 Mark_BC
Mark_BC's picture

Finally. The Canadian dollar is a petropeso, a prime example of how not to develop an economy. America's owned by the banks and Canada's owned by big oil. And our leader believes the world is 5000 years old. I i dont lnow where he thinks oil comes from. Good luck with that

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:24 | 1618968 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

The textbooks are going to rename "Dutch" disease as "Canada" disease. Such a monstrously hollowed out economy that we can't even refine bitumen, soon we will just conveyor the sand to Texas. Morons.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:28 | 1618988 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

If you want a prime example of how not to develop an economy look further South and though it seems that Harper might not be a big beliver in evolution at least he's smart enough to keep his mouth shut about that....

seriously, have you ever heard about a country called the United States of America?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:23 | 1618965 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

Tyler, you forgot to mention again how Canada is the next Greece....

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:55 | 1619102 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Canada isn't Greece.  Greece is bankrupt and warm.  Canada isn't warm and isn't bankrupt-  only Ontario and Quebec, soon to separate.

And Canada has outlawed Greek sex- ask Leo.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 14:37 | 1619781 Jaciems
Jaciems's picture

lol...should of added a sarcasm tag

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 16:16 | 1620326 Kayman
Kayman's picture

what sarcasm ?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:32 | 1619003 owensdrillin
owensdrillin's picture

The second quarter was definitly held back by weather in western Canada. Winter lasted at least a month longer than normal and the breakup (muddy roads) lasted well into June whereas it is usually over in the first week of May. I think Al Gore cooled the planet off too much this time and it has had a transitory effect on the oilpatch.

Real estate in most of western Canada has been dropping and Vancouver (and maybe Calgary) is the anomaly. The prices in my area (SE B.C.) are down over 30% from the the highs and are still dropping as there is no demand. All the Albertans who normally purchase recreational property here are going to the States as it is much cheaper for real estate, gas, beer, and pretty much everything else. Retailers along the border areas are hurting due to the cross border shopping with the loonie at above par values.

We do make a lot of stuff here and most people in my area work in coal mines, forestry, or work fly in, fly out, camp jobs in the north. More coal moving to China than has ever been moved before at this time.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:45 | 1619070 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Owensdrillin, thanks for the update. Canada manufactures almost nothing, but produces a great deal of primary wealth.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:46 | 1619075 slavador
slavador's picture

Here in the Shuswap all men who want work are (most commuting to mines +oil patch). The small minority of real estate developer types have lost their shirts but no one is crying for them. Friends with saw mills are running better than for about 3 years. Sometimes when you read about places suffering tragedy due to the stupidity and tragic flaws of the people (as in Quebec, Ontario and much of the USA) you feel bad. It is about time that the economies built on banking (TO), miming(Quebec) and swindling (NY) collapsed.  

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:16 | 1619167 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Wait for the massive annual snowfalls up there in Looney Land. Hey, why do they call Canadians Looney anyway?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:22 | 1619179 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Real estate in Manitoba only goes up. We lost about 2 billion in farm producce due to flooding this year. Why didn't those dumb farmers just plant rice? We have all the hydro electricty we need and are building some more 5 billion dollar dams to supply the American markets. We owe 200 billion dollars and have a 1 million pop but thanks to zirp we are rich.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:39 | 1619471 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

It's aboot time the truth come out eh ?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 15:46 | 1620137 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

One thing no one seems to mention about Canada is that, in the last thirty years, the Bank of Canada has quietly sold off most of its gold holdings, almost 1000 tons. If you can believe it, the Canadian dollar is mostly backed by U.S. treasuries. LOL I don't think this is going to go well when the world goes back on the gold standard.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 16:16 | 1620332 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

oops..

Aug 31, 2011

"The internet is under attack here in Canada and if Stephen Harper gets his way with the "lawful access" bill, he will pave the way for big brother to have total control over everything we do online"

"unLawful Access" - Battle For The Net:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQcKtD2ucIM

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 16:40 | 1620446 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

...and it's all your fault gringos:

"Canadian Currency Drops for First Month Since May on U.S. Economic Outlook"

Canada’s dollar declined for the first month since May versus its U.S. counterpart on speculation that a slowdown in America, the nation’s biggest trade partner, will crimp exports.

The currency was little changed today versus the greenback and dropped against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers, falling the most against the Swiss franc and the Mexican peso. A report showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-31/canada-s-dollar-little-changed-...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:33 | 1621909 seoerlin
seoerlin's picture

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shacai's picture

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