Canadian Economy Shrinks For First Time Since 2009; Recession Next?
Don't look know but Canada just confirmed the first signal of a recession, after its GDP printed negative (on expectations of an unchanged number) for the first time since Q2 2009, due to a drop in exports and oil output, most of it blamed naturally on "transitory" factors. Odd how the US used the transitory line for months until it all turned out to be permanentory. What, however, is truly hilarious is the continued denial to look facts in the face as confirmed by the following three Canadian sellside analysts, who seem positively giddy that the number was major miss to expectations: their take home, just like as in the case of Canadian banks having some of the lowest TCE ratios in the world: "ignore it." Perhaps when next quarter Canadian GDP prints negative again, and the economy is officially in a recession, then the delightful comedy crew of what passes for "analysts" up north will have some words of caution finally. As for whether a recession confirmation in 3 months will be negative for the same banks which are downplaying both the GDP and its risk to their near world record leverage, we leave to the far more erudite, and far less shoot-from-the-hip Globe and Mail.
SAL GUATIERI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS
"Its worth noting that the economy did grow at a fairly respectable rate, plus 3 percent in the previous two quarters, and there were some temporary factors that slowed the economy in the second quarter. The supply chain disruptions in the auto industry, wildfires in Alberta and importantly, the economy appears to have ended the quarter on a fairly healthy note, June GDP up 0.2 percent. That suggests growth will rebound to about 2 percent in the third quarter."
"For the Bank of Canada, growth clearly came in well below its expectations back in July, when it thought the economy would grow 1.5 percent. On balance the report will likely weigh towards keeping the Bank of Canada on the sidelines and we believe they will not raise interest rates until next summer."
"There may have been a knee-jerk (currency) reaction, but I'm not seeing any long-lasting effect. Again, the report does not carry many implications for monetary policy, even though quarterly growth came in a little weaker than expected, June GDP came in a little better than expected, raising hopes that the economy bounced back in the third quarter."
BENJAMIN TAL, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT CIBC
"People should not pay too much attention to this number. It does not represent the real health of the Canadian economy. We all know the second-quarter was impacted in a very significant way by a supply disruptions in the auto sector and energy sector. Those two sectors really were significantly impacted. We know exports went down significantly during this quarter and you will see a nice bounce back in the third-quarter."
"Having said that, if we assume that the U.S. economy will remain relatively soft, exports will remain relatively soft and be under pressure. So although this picture in this quarter overstates the weakness of the Canadian economy and should not be taken at face value, given the temporary factors I mentioned -- this gives the new mix that we should expect over the next 6 to 12 months, which is a somewhat weaker export story given the fact that the U.S. economy will underperform."
PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA:
"Going into the report, expectations had been flat GDP growth. So a little bit weaker than expected, unfortunately showing a decline, though it is a fairly minimal drop, a decline nonetheless. Weakness is largely coming from the net export component, and final domestic demand did manage to strengthen to 3.0 percent from a 1.8 percent gain in the first quarter. Nonetheless, it is indicating a marked weakening in the second quarter, certainly below the Bank of Canada's recent forecast suggesting growth at 1.5 percent, though subsequent comments by Bank of Canada Governor Carney did suggest the possibility we could see a small decline."
"Certainly this is reason to keep policy accommodative, holding steady, the overnight rate (target) at 1 percent. At this point, I think they'll view some of the weakness as being the result of transitory factors, and watch the data for indications of a bounceback in growth. And the monthly GDP numbers sort of indicate a start to that process, with growth ticking up to 0.2 in June after the 0.3 drop in May.
"The quarterly numbers (are) weaker than expected plus showing that decline, so as a result it could be a slight negative for the Canadian dollar. However it might be tempered a bit by the June GDP coming in stronger than expected."
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"People should not pay too much attention to this number. It does not represent the real health of the Canadian economy," which is actually much much worse.
We must be getting closer and closer to the Labor day weekend when news from Canada is considered news. People should not pay too much attention to Canada, anyways. Who carez what happens in the great white north, anyways? Other than Poutine and French Girls, what does Canada have to offer anyways other than Canadians (boring).
I don't know either but I do know that I'm going to short the shit out of this green opening.
coundown to another ZH feature in the Globe and Mail
Another ZH feature in the G&M?
The G&M keeps running the last ZH feature. They just change the release date. News re-use is cheap. Saves on labour costs in the face of recession.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/fabrice-taylor/take-bloggers-bank-warning-with-several-grains-of-salt/article2147693/
Recession? Ha! ZIRP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@russki
both of those are from quebec, so why dont you stick to there.
At the end of the day 51% of Canada's economy is selling stuff to the US. When the US finishes obliterating itself, they will take us down with them as well. There is no alternative. But, we will forever be locked at the hips, we provide all the natural resources, they provide all the military...
I like Quebec, I have spend a few nights on Ste.Catharine checking out the local clubs and making temporary new friends. The people are really nice when you pay with USD.
Unfortunately, I have to agree that US will ultimately drag Canada down. Too bad.
Lol, we don't like USD here. Good one!
I beg to differ. When I offered to pay with USD, she said Oui Oui, I now have moneee for florida.
Don't judge the country based on a gracious host. We know the US$ is a piece of shit.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernia_oil_field
Production commenced on November 17, 1997 and Hibernia has proven to be the most prolific oil well in Canada, with initial production rates in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from a single well. A dedicated fleet of shuttle tankers continuously operates between the platform and an onshore transshipment facility at Whiffen Head, adjacent to an oil refinery at Come By Chance.
The development of Hibernia involves a considerable amount of drilling services. As of January 1, 2007, over 50 development wells have been successfully drilled from the platform, including several world record "extended reach drilling" wells.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Nova_oil_field
Terra Nova is an oil field development project 350 kilometres off the coast of Newfoundland. Discovered in 1984 by Petro-Canada, the field is the second largest off Canada's East Coast. Terra Nova is the first harsh environment development in North America to use a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the Terra Nova FPSO. Production from the field began in January 2002.
The oil is produced from the Late Jurassic-aged sandstone within the Jeanne d'Arc Formation. The reservoir was deposited as a large braided fluvial system. The discovery well was Terra Nova K-08 drilled in 1984 by Petro-Canada.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Rose_oil_field
White Rose is an oil field development project 350 kilometres off the coast of Newfoundland. Husky Energy is the operator and 72.5 per cent interest holder in the White Rose oil fields.
Discovered in 1984, the White Rose offshore oil field is located in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin 350 km east of St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The field consists of both oil and gas pools, including the South White Rose oil pool. The oil pool covers approximately 40 km2 and contains an estimated 440 million barrels of recoverable oil. White Rose is the second harsh environment development in North America to use a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the SeaRose FPSO. Production from the field began on November 12, 2005.
(Watch the first season of Ice Road Truckers. The hauling to gas and oil sites is very interesting.But I'm too lazy to search out information on those fields.)
Yes, and if I'm not mistaken, every well is in decline...
Now keep in mind that I am from Gander, and I do live in the other side of the world now, but I'm pretty sure "She's all in decline now, By's".
Now if somebody reeeeeallly wanted to look for something in Newfoundland... well the old Hopebrook gold mine on the south coast is still there... mothballed...
"Who carez what happens in the great white north, anyways? Other than Poutine and French Girls, what does Canada have to offer anyways other than Canadians (boring)."
How about fishing, beef, natural gas, bitumen, copper, zinc, nickel, gold, silver, phosphate, iron-ore, highest grade diamonds on Earth, fur, grain, water, raw timber.... did I miss a few hundred others?
Read much?
Tsk, tsk Fonestar, you have no sense of humor. Canada is a good country to live in, and I have in vested in countless gold mines, junior oil and gas plays, base metal mines, I even shorted SinoForest. You assume boring is bad... would you rather live in the middle east, where life is always interesting?
I guess there's worse ways to be than boring.
russki standart, your an idiot, or at least have a bad sense of humor.
Right, nevermind these numbers, we've got the Bernank doing the 'QE carrot on a stick' for the last 8 months, which will never actually be delivered.
Goddamnit! If the fucking ice roads lasted longer the Canuck economy would be growing.
Did you check out those oil tanks the Polar Bear and his buddy Rick hauled way out to fuckmeintheassmiddleofnowhere Canada?
Fuck of a lot of oil storage for a tiny little town.
Hey Gully Foyle, any ideas on how to sell the Canadian Real Estate market short? I plan to allocate at least .0125 percent of my lunch money to this trade.
Seeing as how the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is backstopping every sh*t mortgage here in Canada, and the CDN government (read: CDN taxpayer) is on the hook for all of the CMHC's debts, you may wish to pass on shorting the CDN real estate market and just short the whole damn country...
-FN
HXD
Ice roads:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/uk-canada-arctic-idUSLNE77U04N20110831
What is HXD? TSE symbol?
HXD is a short on the TSX, not 'the entire economy'. The TSX actually bears very little resemblance to the Canadian economy, and many firms (ie: the banks) are set up quite nicely for an economic downturn.
Use HXD at your own peril (its motherfucking expensive too....)
Thank you.
quite obvious now why you're called financial newbie...
HIF CD EQUITY
http://www.horizonsetfs.com/pub/en/Default.aspx
Sounds like a good plan... but any downsides/risks to holding an inverse product like HIF? I've been told to avoid the leveraged inverse version (HFD)...
Thanks,
-FN
Buy the Dip. LOL With your money
I wonder if this will cause Shark Tank to be cancelled, I really like watching those crazy Canadian inventors
tonite it's back to back beachcombers, forest rangers, and rainbow country! closer to midnite, reruns of the pig and whistle!
A contracting ecomony from the largest importer of our <what's left> domestically made goods has to be a good thing.
I believe they call this 'moving sideways' and the obvious solution here in New Bizarro World is to print more fake money. That helps.
...that helps some people.
Uh oh, eh?
How can Canada shrink with its four western states, paradise on earth, according to Count 'whats his name' who posts so superbly on ZH, and its TAr sands mountain of black wealth that the USA guzzles like an enfamished Leviathan...?
Something I'm missing, unless the Real estate ponzi, the prize plum of sterile FIRE economy, has now invaded the mindset of staid, run of the mill, Canadians. Gezzaks, are the Mounties now as dumb as their American counterparts?
The police up here seem to be on the same steroid and amphetamines programs that their American counterparts are on, not sure if they're quite as dumb as the Americans though.
@ falak
This year the idiot Canuckistanians gave a majority to the oxymoronic 'Progressive Conservatives', again. Their members are all cut from the same cloth as the rest of the worlds' bought and paid for oligarchs, and have a long history of undermining Cdn. sovereignty, yet the duped electorate keep buying their constantly reneged promises.
Also, Mark Carney, the Governor of their Central Bank, is a 13 year GS vet...
Does that help paint the red on the maple leaf a bit?
No worries, Bernanke will "fix" their economy too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41ZEanjORQI
I LOVE TPB, best show ever!
Black swans getting ready to migrate south for the winter?
That sucks if you also have to own a bunch of Chinese restaurants in Canada...since rough rice just hit 17 dollars from 10 earlier this year....shit now thats inflation..
Yeah but how much 'rough rice' does a Chinese restaurant use relative to its sales? A few cents worth of rice is nothing when you're selling it for $5 as fried rice.
Shrinkage like George Costanza just out of the pool
We'd be negative too if it wasn't for all this stimulus/money-printing. I'd rather have the Canadian economy than the American economy. At least, Canada makes stuff. Plus, they have a much healthier banking system, if I'm not mistaken. Canada has survived this global economic crisis much better than the US and Europe.
Or maybe I'm wrong...I'm just an ignorant American.
I guess.
Johnny Lawrence, Canada makes nothing. The manufacturing sector is practically non-existent. The banking sector is very highly leveraged. The main asset of canadian banks are real estate loans. Canadian real estate pricing is in the midst of the mother of all bubbles. The average home in Vancouver BC sells for $1,000,000 USD, and is out of the reach of more than 95% of the population. Canadians are borrowing against their homes and buying cars, boats, second homes etc. If the value of the loans backing canadian real estate dropped by 5% or more, the banks would be in distress. Sound familiar?
Nearly all of the at-risk loans at the Canadian banks are backed by the federal government through the CMHC. So failure of the loans ultimately results not in the bank going bankrupt, but rather, in the emmission of a whole shit-ton of national debt. At some point, this sucks tremendous amounts of investment capital out of the system, and causes interest rates to eventually reverse and begin a long cycle upwards.
Certainly not going to be pretty going forward, but I wouldn't worry too much about the big chartered banks.
Thank you. It is clear that the banksters also control Canada. Privatize gains, socialize losses, good deal if you can get it.
one way or another:
http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2011/08/31/5334089.html
Ask any common person on the street, you'll get the same answer you get in the U.S. What do you mean the recession ended? It is still a recession for the average person.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Tyler,
Thanks so much for continuing to cover whats going on up here in Canada.
As a Canuck, it is sometimes hard to find a critical view or analysis of the Canadian economy and its banking system, which we constantly tout as some sort of invincible juggernaut of financial acumen.
While I'm nervous/frightened about the future if Canada's fortunes do start to wane, it does harden my resolve to be informed about and prepared for the coming downturn. It is fair to say that I have your blog, as well as a (very) few others, to thank for that information.
Hope to hear more from you about this story as it unfolds...
Cheers,
-FN
I had to work for a decade with ass hats like this on Bay Street, I nearly went mental until I realized I didn't need to it anymore.
edit: to clarify Bay St is like our Wall Street, and correction nope I did go mental.
Wait until the markets realize the actual debt situation of some Canadian provinces, such as France's subsidiary (Quebec), which had a greekish debt/GDP ratio not so long ago, and getting worst.
evil bloggers!
Not long before Reggie Middleton turns his eyes towards Canadian real estate. I predict an analysis post within a month.
what does Canada have to offer.
The sorting opporunity of a lifetime. If you ZH are truly doom and gloom when the US sneezes Canada catches pneumonia.
This my American brethren is your canary in the coal mine for North America. With resources pushing higher and Canada cant print a +ve number - look out below.
yes Canada is a very organized country "a great sorting opportunity"
what does Canada have to offer.
---
“virgin rape oil”
What other country offers such an outstanding product?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/trends/trends-features/why-canadians-should-soak-up-a-canola-oil-revolution/article2147530/
As an added plus, Canada is not only well sorted, it is also highly alphabetasized.
Rape is a very important crop in western Canada, don't diss it!
Mortgage delinquincies rising in Canada...deafults increasing as well....GL to them...same problem as here.
WOW look at the DUH its spectacular once again +100 opening pop! Based on what? Promise of more free crack. Carrot and stick Bubbles Bernank isnt going to deliver the diamond encrusted QE everyone is drooling over. It will disappoint huge, at best he'll kick the can a few more months but the party is over.
Hands down the worst 3 month newsflow since 2008.
Yet stocks haven't really corrected much off their 3-year highs.
Reminds me of 1994 - 1997 where the SPX went up in a relentless fashion, where occasional 12% - 15% corrections were quickly forgotten.
94-97? Youd have to be an idiot to make such a comparison, nothing at all is even remotely similar. So stop being such a damn idiot.
And if youre 'all in' again like you were for your foaming at the mouth debt ceiling deal run up from DUH 12,700 youre about to get bent over again big time.
I love it when he gets all misty-eyed :-)
Robo is right in that the newsflow is awful, yet the market is ignoring it. But, the lesson I've learned is that when the stock market disconnects from economic reality, then something will eventually have to give.
Market does refuse to collapse. Buffet buying. Talk about a single straightforward headwind though.
RobotTrader
Reminds me of 1994 - 1997. Yeah... the US economy had businesses that actually made things. People had good paying jobs. Now we manufacture binary money, and eye candy on Chinese computer screens.
I admire your optimism, but I am preparing for another leg down.
Get out of your room and travel thru the country. It is not good. And all the hopium that Goebels could muster didn't change the facts on the ground in Stalingrad.
Merry Christmas from Stalingrad !
Hey Robo, how would you short the financial and housing sector in Canada?
Canada has resources and CIC has an office in Totonto.
I remember the huge chop in 1994, when the bond market was going crazy and everyone thought interest rates were going through the roof.
Pretty much the same as today, the market started grinding up off those lows and never looked back for 3 years. Only this time interest rates are still at world record lows, making room for huge speculative fever to build up.
By the way Sheep-Dog, are you still short?
Heres Robo again pretending he doesnt see a market only supported by $trillions in free money printing, and wants to compare it to 94-97?
Youve got to be the biggest idiot ever, or Tylers loser brother in law.
BTW I was never short anything except a few long time LEAP puts which have paid off spectacularly, such as RIMM from $110 and others.
Gold since $400, silver since $5. 100's increases while you hold your loser bag of few %ers.
You had the tech boom of the mid-90s. Very different than today, when this is no broad-based innovation occurring. The more appropriate historical comparisons are the Great Depression and 90s Japan. Huge rallies and huge declines over a drawnout fundamental downtrend.
Its all the same to cherry picker rear view mirror boy Robo.
RoboTarder is in denial and can't accept that we have a vicious secular bear market on U.S. indexes, which has whipsawed buy and holds with razor blades for 12 years now. In real terms, we're at about 1988 levels, or 23 years of buy & hold gains up in smoke (not to even mention all the adverse tax consequences for these bagholders during that time).
Wait until we really turn Japanese, ala Nikkei from 40k to >9k over a 21 year period IN NOMINAL TERMS.
RoboTarder's mom will kick him out of the basement.
Oh yeah. a tiny little fact. In 1994 the US wasn't the world's largest DEBTOR.
FCX just cleared the prior highs. Deep cyclicals are catching some decent bids.
Two great reports out:
ISM NY now below 50! Yes, even NY is now in contraction mode. Revenues were down 40% compared with August 2010!! Businesses had difficulty with financing.
OECD reports drastic downshift in both export and import activity in BRIC and develpoed nations. Wow.
The slowing of growth was radical: imports by the top Group of Seven (G7) industrialised countries and the main so-called BRICS emerging economies expanded by 1.1 percent in the second quarter, down from growth of 10.1 percent in the first quarter.
17 days worth of JPM shorts are now underwater
Now the loser all-in long from DUH 12,700 will post each stock gain thruout the day. Dont you ever just shut the hell up?
At the moment Canada's tea party goverment does not recognize reality. They are building prisions to lock up people for unreported crimes. The crime rate is way down, the reason according to the goverment, people dont report crimes anymore. There were actually more people murdered in Canada than Mexico last year.
40 headless bodies discovered in a shallow grave in Toronto's Rosedale neighborhood, according to authorities this was a revenge attack for a Maple Syrup deal gone bad
Actually what happened was 40 cult members from the US visited Canada, found it so boring that they blew off their heads because the other side just HAS to be more interesting.
Uhhh I don't remember about findings in Canada of mass graves filled with corpses of people killed by bludgeon weapon hits to the head?
Let's try to keep our senses. Canada is in trouble yes, but not as fucked up as Mexico.
more murder in canada than mexico? are you fucking retarded?
Canada has one nice housing bubble I do believe.
the only problem with the bubble idea is that the likes of Mish and Turner have been proclaiming a bubble since 40% ago (sort of like how Roubini has been calling a Gold Bubble since 1000)
Correction: Vancouver has one nice housing bubble I do believe.