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"Can't Let Any Low-Volume Meltup Go To Waste"
Perhaps it is time to redefine the term "distribution." And somehow everyone has forgotten to bash High Frequency Trading on days when it is the primary bidder of a levitating stock market.
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lol
Robots didn't need to hop a train this a.m. and the humans are busy pumping out their basements. Saw this action coming,,,,WINNING !
Just buy, bitchez.
After you please...let us know how that goes at the end of the week.
Is it safe to come out? I've been running and getting away and hiding for a month now because you said to.
At least order me a pizza (onion, garlic, olives) down here.
I find this whole market nauseating. Nothing is cheap, everything is propped, and the HFT guys add noise and instability. It's like an amusement park ride that you can't get off cause it won't stop.
Yup, I'm seeing that as well. BUT, there is something else I'm noticing. Oil, Gold and Silver, the physical aspects of it in terms of real price have completely decoupled from the paper trade. As in the paper value of a barrel of oil is 90 bucks, the real value in terms of a gas pump is roughly 300-400% more.
IOW no one is buying that the physical materials are on the market price point. Same thing for food as well. Sprinkle in the collapsing USD, the pointless Ruble, the wonky Yuan, Junked Euro and we are in a position to start calling Oil, Gold and Silver currencies. What everyone is currently looking at is the complete vapourization of central tax collection and central planning with the ivory tower paper vs street level understanding. Economists have made the mistake since the 50's that they control the actions of trade, in reality economists are only here to record, document and unveil trends. Sort of like a farmer saying they have control over how corn is going to grow, while physical starting conditions can be met to allow a crop to flourish, there are 1000's of other aspects that are required to make a crop useable.
I hope everyone is out of their trades and flipped as much as their capital to physical metals and has their house in order in terms of preparation. As much as the world would love a doorstop to this collapse there are no longer any options left, even with a revision of currency valuation (like the Peruivian Sol), at the end of the day, when poor resource management, uncontrolled human population growth and just awful central planning happens. The only other option left is to wait for the financial firestorm to end.
But I'm not worried about "heading for the hills" at the end of the month. And you're not going to see billions of people die in India and China on July 31st.
Should you be ready for a meltdown? Yes. As I said before, this is an excellent opportunity to practice your prepping. That's what I'm doing, but I was going to do so before I saw CPL's science fiction story.
What I'm not doing is losing any sleep over this, nor am I changing any of my current investment strategies. And yes, I do expect my money to be available on August 1st.
The most that I expect to see on July 31st are some glitches, and then CPL appearing, claiming that they took pity on people. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt is what's typically used when you can't deliver the goods.
If I'm wrong, well, hey, we're all screwed. That's why it's a good time to practice your prepping. But I'm willing to bet that I'm not.
Here's a serious tip for everyone. Just make certain that the password you use here, at zerohedge, or any other site, doesn't match the one you use for your email account. What typically happens is that these websites get cracked, the password database gets stolen, and too many fools have their email and facebook accounts cracked because they use the same password for all.
From there, it's pretty easy to track down identifying information.
So just use a different password for your email account, and that will go a long way to keeping your account and information safe. Even better is to use a long, and strong, password for email. And don't let your browser retain it.
Part of what I reference in the comments:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paul-ryan-responds-gang-six-bipartisan-...
damn...where you been hidin?
good stuff, squib
Interesting (and very bearish) interview with Andrew Smithers:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74353610/
In the absence of a real economy, this is the only way to put money in people's pocket without formally sending out checks.
Until a new innovation cycle breaks out, this is all we got.
"People's"? Uh you mean banksters!
Real people don't get to profit from this
By and by, spare change will fall out of bankers pocket for people to collect... Trickle down economics is amazing/s
I was in the Victory development in Dallas a couple years back walking by all the parked Ferarris and Bentlys when a $100 bill blew past me on the sidewalk. Seriously. I thought, "Wow, I could probably live off the lost pocket change around here!"
The guy who parks the cars at the upscale resort will be thankful for the extra tips.
Pumping the market is the only way the machine knows how to create wealth these days. In the good old days in the USA, innovative people developed new products and services on a large scale and grew the economy organically. In the absence of that, the machine pumps the markets.
No. A paper profit is not = to "money in pocket". Spreads, slippage, commissions and taxes make sure of that. HFT makes triply sure that the money flows one way. Guess which?
How many "pockets"?
I think it's probably better to say that it's a way to get people to put money in their pockets by thinking their 401(k) is safe so they can take loans against it. These investment advisers need their clientelle to be calm and pacified -- so a nice rally is due here. We'll hear the same BS "You need to invest for the long haul" even though a chunk of people are still under water from 2000.
I'm seeing more of a "bank run" on the 401(k) space pretty soon. The emotional fortitude you need to stay in this market is brutal and demographics are not on the side of UP UP UP(Boomers are going to need to convert or cash out their 401(k) to survive). Negative real rates of return versus "smoke 'em if ya got 'em". Hmm, I'm thinking the latter wins.
When people find out these plan sponsors and admins are lying to them about assets and reserve ratios, whoa Nelly, it's over the top of the mountain and off a cliff. And there goes a huge capital base for the Wall St crooks.
Smithers "Most people buying equities aren't interested in the truth, they're interested in commissions" Classic!!
update on compression from friday, please.
Let´s see if they find a method to push the market up with ZERO volume.
Oh hell yes they will.
Market catches a bid ? Buyers appear from seemingly nowhwere ?
"Don't forget to thank a machine !
Very truly yours,
Skynet"
http://www.internationalhero.co.uk/t/terminators.jpg
Fuck volume! Tyler, have you made any money trading lately?
I find that most people asking about others P&L are the same morons who stood o/s exams at university/LSAT/GMAT/CFA asking others about what they answered to question 12.
In other words, insecure muppets who want to feel better about their answers/P&L.
Ok, so say right now I'm more satisfied with the overall risk and distribution of my portfolio than with P&L. Means I'm secure right?
hell no SOB makes money from ads....couldn't trade to save his life....ZeroTrade>>>>
HE gave me three good trades, kbr when it had record shorts, that hospital fake fraud case whoever they were, and one more but i cant remember. That was several ounces of grass in the past. None recently cuz I swore off options. Aint gonna do compressions.
Yeah Tyler. What have u done for me recently? Been kinda dry since the great silver short. I been living off past glory.
Smart and dumb money are going risk on with pocket change and waiting.
I don't think Tyler is a gambler.
1-2, 1-2, and then an elevator drop. we are near the top of another 2.
basicaly we have no sellers and a few momo fools biting on the HFT cheeze. Visaulize a carrot dangling on a stick with a few momos trying to jump ever higher to grab some. Mr. HFT only lifts the stick just out of reach to only allow a few nibbles. Those sellers hoping and waiting to dump into this bounce know that there is no one out there to take their shares lol
The Tantalus Fund. ;)
As always in this market the buy part is easy....the sell part is gonna be tough since the bots are actually hiding that spreads are a mile wide. On the drop bids get very hard to come by.
Excuse my ignorance, but I often do not understand the comments. Or the articles, for that matter.
Why are the bids hard to come by on a drop? Aren't there people who buy on dips? [or machines?]
It may be low vol meltup but the paramters and indicators are all turning strongly positive. If we maitain this into close today, you will have a new uptrend in S&P and as usual ignoring all fundamentals.
Here are those charts telling the free subscribers about a possible shift in S&P. I wish Tyler you could give an option to paste the charts here directly.
http://capital3x.com/?p=436
Do not want you all worked about a few links pasted.
It's not rocket science.
The algorithms are 85% tuned to the Euro because Euro advance causes US multinational sales in Europe to be worth more dollars of sales/earnings. Euro up, market up. Magnitude is not in the computation. Just direction. Euro up, market up.
When they get back from vacation and start failing to increase the EFSF, then Euro down and S&P down. Super committee fighting will drag on the other 15%.
Maybe it's because all traders on wallstreet took the day off and 1 janitor is having the time of his life playing with all those terminals that are sitting idle.
+1 for good humor.
Newsflash - rallies always happen on lower volume...thats the way mkts work. They leave the most people behind when they establish a new direction leaving most to remain non-believers. How could the 1%ers make money if everyone was on the same train?
Same on the downside folks.
Volume spikes typically mark the end of the near term move.
Only a newb would say that. If you traded markets for the last 30 years you'd know that in good times the market rallied on ENORmous volume, sustained over time. Buy programs would light up 3 times daily and retail would scoop up stocks all day. Low volume rallies were considered signs of the dumb money buying the top
been a pro since OCT 2001 bro...
Not 30 years but I know what im doing.
Guess thats what makes a mkt...
Lotsa luck then, bro.
Famous last words, " i know what im doing, here, hold my beer."
Usually resulting is a spectacular *failblog* youtube video.
ROTFLMFAO!
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID WHEN I PICKED UP THAT WATER MOCCASIN!
Pro noob since 2001.
typical sheep
A professinal WHAT?
The low volume melt up is a 3-4 year old phenominon at best. It started with QE and the emergence of HFT.
You sure you're not a parking garage attendent?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVACbEHkV2Q
A parking garage attendent might think this is normal for markets. Trading professionals don't. Unless they are total idiots. So hey, maybe they do.
And here come the insults...lol
Amazing how people get so uptright about something so trivial as this.
Trivial? You are calling a 180 degree turn in the way the markets operate TRIVIAL?
The markets are DEAD. But you don't seem to notice. And yet you claim to be a long time professional.
GTFO of here. You clearly haven't been trading for ten years OR you're an idiot who couldn't spot a macro trend reversal if it sat on his face and left a huge load in his mouth. Feel free to let us know which is the truth. That is, if you can face the truth yourself.
Your so worked up you dont know why you`re angry. Im a guy with a theory, who places bets with my own money. I am not the feds or some bailed out homeowner. Simple as that.
Am I the cause or effect of the the "dead mkts" and the "180 degree turn"?
The mkts remain the same, yet always change....
And the sheep will always get slaughtered.
He means at the inflection itself it will initially be a low volume rally. Latwr when trend firmly established you see high volume bull market rallies.
Roger that. Someone with reading comprehension skills. i.e "establish a new direction"...
Rally in bear markets are usually on light volume. However in bull markets the opposite tends to be true.
Precisely
So, how long did it take you to come up with that newsflash??
10 years of 7 hours a day, 252 days a year staring at time and sales...
Time and hard work.
How do you come up with working theories in your line of work?
7 hours a day? Hmmmmm, try 30 at 16 hours a day, talk to you in 20 years.......
Another 30 year guy huh? Lotsa oldtimers here today I guess.
If im staring at screens or trading in another 20 I will have considered myself a failure.
Markets change too fast these days. I learn something new every day.
If you are not willing to stick to it and put in the time and effort, you will fail. You might might want to rethink that mindset. Keep learning. Every day. It's the only path to success.
You sir, are a gentlemen and a scholar.
Good trading to you!
I'm not sure why the ppl who have 30yrs experience think it is relavent in this manipulated casino market. Crispy, any thoughts for trading the no volume melt ups? My shorts are getting whacked pretty hard today (MTG especially). Stick with shorts or bail until QE3 is/is not announced?
Chappy - I most certainly cannot give you advice about your shorts. But I will say this - price is price regardless of volume. Does it hurt you less financialy when your price is moving against you on lower volume?
I am not opposed to this observation. As long as the money is being printed, it is hard to be too bearish on stocks, even as the economy grinds to halt. The banks all have free money safety nets on top of ZIRP. When the printing is all over, the stocks will drop. But ZIRP though 2013 is not all over. And the idea that the Fed will stop buying Treasuries is not workable. Gold and silver are still the only real trades. But, I am not comfortable shorting anything vs dollars
Push it up! This is going to be so funny when Ben decides QE3 isn't necessary.
He already did. But it's far worse than that
New 'carrot on a stick' markets where 'something' is always hinted at thats coming soon, but nothing ever delivered.
But they get another month of 'This bad news certainly means we're about to be gifted with some serious free cash real soon so buy stocks' empty Hopium vapor markets.
Precisely.
Bernanke is NOT going to QE3 unless he absolutely HAS to.
DavidC
How is the ESBASKET doing Tyler?
Vapor trading, yawn, just another silly rally
How dare you call this rally "VAPOR"...can't you see the zombies are reacting like little puppies...arf arf...BTFT....and shut up...:-} The truth will set you free...VOTE RON PAUL...:-}
Bernanke put in play.
Which is all well and good.
But lets all agree that this time we will NOT pretend that QEinfinity, will have any effect on the real economy (except through damage down via higher oil/food prices).
The real effect of successive QE will be social instability.
But lets all cheer S&P 2000.
Save the BANKS/WALL STREET, damn the country.
Yes Lizzy...just like LUCY played with Charlie...Bernake is playing with the American people...just hope for RON PAUL to save the day...:-}
The 3 card monty team is goading the dumb money to make a bet today. Shill players from the 'crowd' are claiming they're making all sorts of money. Go ahead. Guess which card....
Dallas Fed Manufacturing misses. -11.4 in July compared to -2 in June. All regional manufacturing areas are now negative, except Kansas City.
and the market reaction? ....Risk On!
'Stick and carrot' market style...sure everything sucks the big one, BUT...a miracle is surely just around the corner as Bernank said the meeting will be not 1 day, but TWO! OMFG got to buy stawks the miracle is soon to arrive!
Oops.
Of all people, Mish says we're already in recession, just waiting on NBER (good luck)
forgot link
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dallas-fed-aug-index-negative-for-fourth-month-2011-08-29?link=MW_home_latest_news
Calculated Risk makes the Dallas Fed release sound less negative since he highlights the production index component, instead of the general business activity.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/texas-manufacturing-activity-flat-in.html
Do'nt forget the MSNBC talking Zombie's call us FRINGE....They are truly afraid of the real truth...VOTE RON PAUL...:-}
Fringe becoming all too accepted for their delicate stomachs. They still tear up at the mention of names like Paulson
EndOfTheMonthRally! Does not matter if we all are in the shitter, them bonuses Must Be Taken INNNN!
Based on this predicable crap, I can go back to surfing for porn until thursday
Off topic.
Had to find out from an australian newspaper that Obama's grifter uncle who has changed his name several times was picked up on an old deportation order.
His one free phone call request was "to the whitehouse."
No coverage on CNN or new york times?
He was arrested for DUI and the ICE warrant (for deportation) came up upon his booking. The DUI was disregarded for bail and he was held over for ICE on the deportation warrant. That took place in Framingham, a suburb of Boston, MA sometime last week. Can't find the exact date anywhere and the "regular" media has a COMPLETE blackout on the sotry. No mention what so ever by any US news organizaiton. Guess he want to avoid a shit storm of bad PR after he gave Aunt Zeituni a pass.
Uncle Onyango Obama was pinched last Wednesday evening in Framingham, after having sideswiped a police cruiser. Upon further inspection, it was determined that Uncle Onyango had been nipping the sauce, and when tested for same, proceeded to blow a .14. It was unclear if Auntie Zeituni attempted to post bail, but SNAP cards are not accepted as collateral.
Just what did Obungler and the octogenarian cook up for Unca Warren to play with BAC? What has Banana Ben got up his sleeve in September? Too much event rfisk for this player. Will watch with interest
Is the red selling volume?
On the chance that wasn't humor, the red is the difference from average volume...i.e. representative of the dire lack of volume during these melt-ups.
You could also consider it a measure of how many traders with heartbeats are not participating.
Snowball, you got it right, it wasn't humor, just lack of knowledge. Thanks for the information, much appreciated!
The question is how long will the enormous pools of money be content to sit in us bonds that pay no interest when inflation is eroding the purchasing power.
Equities with the possible exception of gold stocks are mostly not cheap but the alternatives are equally unappealing.
Where do you hide for the long run?
Would you rather die from papercuts or juggle live grenades?
it appears the economy is suffering from both, question is which kills it first?
Underground bunker well stocked with food and water and ammo?
My post apocalyptic mutant zombie dogs (MZD) will be trained to sniff out all your caches
This is nothing more than a classic short squeeze of the HF community that have been short ES for the past 4 weeks. The fact that the recent rally has been on such low volume makes me believe the squeeze can last a bit longer. I'd start getting bearish later this week.
Why should the big dogs pay trading commisions when the HFT's will levitate the market for you?
Market masturbating again I see. Guess Bernanke likes to see a good wank to his confetti USD.
s&p trying to break 1200
probably breaks it this week on volumeless month end mark up week in front of a holiday
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