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Capitulation Redux Or August 2010 Deja Vu: Goldman Downgrades US Economy, Sees One In Three Risk Of Recession, Expects Some QE3 Announcement Next Week

Tyler Durden's picture


In a carbon copy of Goldman's action from exactly one year ago, Goldman's Jan Hatzius has just killed his outlook for the remainder of the year, said there is a 33% chance of a recession and is now looking forward to some QE3 announcement next week. "As foreshadowed in recent publications, we have lowered our US real GDP growth forecast to 2% (annualized) through 2012Q1 and 2½% thereafter.  We now see the unemployment rate edging up to 9¼% by the end of 2012, and see a one-in-three risk of renewed recession.  On the monetary policy side, we expect no rate hikes or changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet until 2013 or later; moreover, we now expect the FOMC to provide more guidance about the future size of its balance sheet at next week’s meeting." Recall that 3 weeks after last year's such downgrade, we had a rather unpleasant announcement at Jackson Hole. Deja vu.... all over again.

From Goldman Sachs

BOTTOM LINE: As foreshadowed in recent publications, we have lowered our US real GDP growth forecast to 2% (annualized) through 2012Q1 and 2½% thereafter.  We now see the unemployment rate edging up to 9¼% by the end of 2012, and see a one-in-three risk of renewed recession.  On the monetary policy side, we expect no rate hikes or changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet until 2013 or later; moreover, we now expect the FOMC to provide more guidance about the future size of its balance sheet at next week’s meeting.
1. We have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth further and now expect real GDP to grow just 2%-2½% through the end of 2012.  Our forecast for annual average GDP growth has fallen to 1.7% in 2011 (from 1.8%) and to 2.1% in 2012 (from 3.0%).  Since this pace is slightly below the US economy’s potential, we now expect the unemployment rate to be at 9¼% by the end of 2012, slightly above the current level.
2. Even our new forecast is subject to meaningful downside risk.  We now see a one-in-three risk of renewed recession, mostly concentrated in the next 6-9 months.  There are three specific issues that concern us.  First, a worsening of the European financial crisis, and a failure of European policymakers to respond adequately, could lead to a further tightening of financial conditions and credit availability, which would worsen the economic outlook globally.  Second, our forecast assumes that the payroll tax cut—currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2011—is extended for another year, but if that failed to happen the fiscal drag in early 2012 would increase significantly.  Third, increases in the US unemployment rate have historically had a tendency to feed on themselves, and this could happen again.
3. Our inflation views have not changed much, but our conviction has increased that the large—and now growing—output gap will result in significant renewed disinflation.  Nominal wages are growing at a 2% rate, unit labor costs are roughly flat, and the temporary inflation impulse from higher commodity prices and the supply chain disruptions in the auto sector is waning.  We expect the year-on-year rate of core inflation to fall from a peak of around 2% in late 2011 to 1¼% in late 2012.
4. On the policy side, we now expect Fed officials to expand the scope of their “extended period” language to cover not just the exceptionally low funds rate but also the exceptionally large balance sheet.  Although the timing of this change is a fairly close call, our expectation is that the FOMC will make it at its August 9 meeting.  We also expect them to shift the maturity of their reinvestments in the Treasury market toward the longer end of the yield curve, although the August 9 meeting is probably still too early for such a shift.  Regardless of what happens next week, we expect the funds rate and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to stay at their current levels of near-0% and $2¾-3 trillion until 2013.  Additional quantitative easing—i.e., a further sizable expansion of the balance sheet—sometime later in 2011 or in 2012 is possible, but is not our base case at this point.


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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1526906 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


Earlier I read a post by a fellow ZHer about QE3 now being in doubt after the NFP. That person, and those of the same mindset, are clearly unawares as to the game rules. What Goldman wants, Goldman gets, sooner or later.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1526983 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And any QE now will have a lifespan of what, maybe 24 hours? Its not 2008 anymore, and no one believes in any of this crap.

OH I also read a whole fukload of ZH bulls posts back at DOW 12,700 area about how theyre all in long for the guaranteed huge run up. How did that work out?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:40 | 1527052 dbach
dbach's picture

A QE announcement will have a long lifespan for PMs.

I don't think there will be a QEIII announcement next week though. Anemic growth is not enough to get the Bernank to go for it. He doesnt want to look implusive, which is what another QE would be after this market dump. Besides its only been 2 months without it. The market will have to fall further for the printing presses to start spinning. If he goes for it next week, it would have to be huge to have any impact what-so-ever on equities.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:04 | 1527140 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

doesn't want to look impulsive? the guy who cut rates 75 bps because of the rogue trader at socgen doesn't want to look impulsive? hahahahahaha

this whole selloff is a god damn shakedown by the banks to get more qe and bigger bonuses. the bernank will comply.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:18 | 1527214 dbach
dbach's picture

Fair point. I guess I just wouldn't want to look like such a push-over in such a public office.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 14:30 | 1527786 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

I read it as "doesn't want to look implosive."

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:41 | 1527059 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Oh my fucking God!

And it's Goldman who says so. At the height of the selling! (Need a close at the LOD to guarantee that nice panic on Monday so they can load up long again.)



Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1527021 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Additional quantitative easing—i.e., a further sizable expansion of the balance sheet—sometime later in 2011 or in 2012 is possible..." (Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs). 

This should be good for a green close if CNBS picks it up. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:42 | 1527061 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

I don't think there is enough debt head-room to make a substantive QE3.  Can't buy debt if there isn't enough room under the debt ceiling.  So they'll have to get creative.  QE3 will not be a simple redo of QE2.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1527151 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I would think that further money printing, or whatever they choose to call it this time, will ensure a ratings downgrade and vastly increased hostility from from all our global "friends". But that's just me. Maybe we need a nice global conflict to distract us from our REAL  know our elected leaders and their "friends".

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1526916 snowball777
snowball777's picture

1 in 3? Hahahahahahahahahaha.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1526959 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Goldman meant 2/3 or '66.6' chance of greatest depression. We're already in recession by any historical measure.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:18 | 1526920 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

33.333333333% bitchez

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:11 | 1527169 r101958
r101958's picture

Yes, but a 100% chance of the current depression continuing.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1526923 Racer
Racer's picture

More free money for the banksters to pump up oil prices again :(

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1526938 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Why not? It's not like Americans have figured out what they have done so far. Americans are still blaming big oil and marching for gay rights. Clueless lemmings.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1526952 walküre
walküre's picture

Trade accordingly.

Oil is starting to look beaten down at this level. The snap back and the fill to Brent could see up to 10% improvement on the day next week.

Don't forget if the price keeps going down, the Arabs will start to squak about reducing output etc.

I'm always hungry for gold but at this point, I'm getting more thirsty for oil.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:42 | 1527063 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you are absolutely on the $.


oil is bargain.


Sept. Oct. will see massive MENA unrest. Oil will break past $112 mid to late Sept. 


Oh and I still haven't eaten my humble pea pie yet re: DOW 10,800 for day. My excuse? The Job #'s are beyond cooked. And Tyler's UnN duration post is the real horror-show du jour!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1526929 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Yogi  Beara is spinning in his grave :)

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1526935 Version 7
Version 7's picture

Goldman Sees: As Blind As A Bat

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1526937 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

67% chance no recession, YAY!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1526943 yabs
yabs's picture

well we all knew the banksters were crashing stocks to get QE3

they are not telling us what they THINK bernanke will do

they are telling us what they have TOLD the bernank to do

if the us public put up with more money printing they are the dumbest fucks on the planet

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:37 | 1527039 espirit
espirit's picture

Yup, playbook.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1526944 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I'm buying the gold coins Glenn Beck likes..........

Because he advertises on zh........

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1526990 Spastica Rex
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Install an ad blocker on your browser, it might make you feel better and shut you up.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:56 | 1527112 fuu
fuu's picture

Why is it so hard for people to understand how google ads work?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1526947 yabs
yabs's picture

well we all knew the banksters were crashing stocks to get QE3

they are not telling us what they THINK bernanke will do

they are telling us what they have TOLD the bernank to do

if the us public put up with more money printing they are the dumbest fucks on the planet

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1526948 Wynn
Wynn's picture

bye bye miss american pie

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:53 | 1527108 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Drive yo Chevy to da levee,but da levee WAS DRY.................................

Right now I wish I had the Cheech and Chong truck from Up in Smoke.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1526950 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

GM below $25. Cue Rattner on CNBC Monday morning talking up this piece of trash.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1526973 walküre
walküre's picture

Cadillac is rolling out 2 new products. LOL

Did you buy the IPO, you schmuck?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1526957 Lets Hang Parliament
Lets Hang Parliament's picture

Quote from Harry Wanger December 22nd 2010 "Not in 2011. Maybe in 2012 but definitely not going to see 1170 any time soon"

Stand by your beds - last print 1182

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1527002 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RoboTrader 2 weeks ago 'I just posted on many message board forums that Im all in long for the 'debt deal' certain run up to the moon, I'm all in long here at DOW 12,700 all aboard dont get left behind'

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:56 | 1527116 Lets Hang Parliament
Lets Hang Parliament's picture

Bingo! sub 1170!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:46 | 1527081 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I sure miss that guy. Good trolls are hard to find.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:04 | 1527138 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Last print 1168. Hammy Wanger pwned (once again)

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1526958 Irish66
Irish66's picture

someone is dumping C

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:56 | 1527082 caerus
caerus's picture

looks like they were subpoenaed by CA over MBS this morn

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:12 | 1527177 r101958
r101958's picture

Yep, Goldman and JPM.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1526963 KnightsofNee
KnightsofNee's picture

Same shit, different quarter.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1526964 yabs
yabs's picture

well we all knew the banksters were crashing stocks to get QE3

they are not telling us what they THINK bernanke will do

they are telling us what they have TOLD the bernank to do

if the us public put up with more money printing they are the dumbest fucks on the planet

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1526969 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

QE3 mention in the newswire should be enough for the algos to send us green for the day.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:28 | 1526980 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Every QE is 50% bigger than the last, so watch this one jump to an additional $1 trillion.  Whoppeeeeee!


What does it all mean?  Its just paper after all!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1526981 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

QE 3 = record bonuses for the faggots at Goldman sacks.

Why else would Limp dick Hatzius be revising? Payday in Zion with your money that is why.

Fuck the fraud factory.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:14 | 1527189 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

The banksters need enough FRNs to each buy a hollowed out volcano and army of henchman before the bottom falls out.  They should be close at this point.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1526988 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Wall Street and other corporate welfare queens waiting with their hands out for ReadyCash(TM) from BernyFed(R). 

Net result: more crazy levels of ReadyCash(TM) "on balance sheets" (to be converted to GoldeNPchute(R) brand convertible exchange medium), more foreign sedans in tony driveways drinking WahabiGas(R) and SinaYunk on Walmart shelves. But no boost to GDP or employment and big incrase in SNAP card volume. Biflation heaven! 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:30 | 1526991 Cdad
Cdad's picture

10 point bounce on the S& four minutes.  Nice market.

Round 'em up...bankers, central or otherwise.  While your at it, pick up Duncan Niederauer...for perpetrating this mess on America.


Fri, 08/05/2011 - 14:13 | 1527030 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture


Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:36 | 1527032 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture


Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1527010 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

"a further sizable expansion of the balance sheet—sometime later in 2011 or in 2012 is possible, but is not our base case at this point."

So GS hasn't told the FED what to do?

Or maybe they have...

The only thing I know for certain is GS will say anything to make money. 


Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:35 | 1527029 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The Greater Moderation is upon us!

Here's why:

Usiing the calculus from boomtimes and applying it to an environment of ZIRP and endless money printing, it will always look like we are not in a recession, and it will always look like we never have inflation (or deflation).

Think about it! 

Let's go wake up and congratulate Alan Greenspan for his Nobel Prize !!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:57 | 1527114 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i just finished reading the marc faber string.

QEII was primarily a print-job to finance the Treasury without driving interests rates higher from the "demand"

with the Bond now settling back to 132.7, from 133.5 last night, it looks like the Ts have pretty good buying support, right now, it least, without any FED "intervention"

so, i don't know what the benzelbub is planning, but if he does any more "printing to buy (troubled?) assets" i see no reason for him to do it for the sake of the T market at this point in time. i say this having read, above, where others know what he is planning.  okey-dokey, smokey.

for example, if benzelbub, decided to sell $1 tril of the UST's he holds, pretty much right into this nice little rally, then take the cash and use it to support timmah's sales, that is NOT QE. 

what?  why not slewie? 

well, b/c he is not creating any NEW money to buy the bonds, this time.  the freaking dude has a ton of UST assets, paid in full, which he can sell to bill gross or anyone else who might be covering stained and funky shorts here.

i'm not saying interest rates will stay low, by themselves.  they are more volative than teen-agers, right now.  but, if benzelbub plays his cards right (and he ain't no dummy), he will not hafta print in the near future, even to sustain the T markets at zirp.

if he wishes to help primary dealers in europe, say, he doesn't hafta print, right now, either.  what are you people smoking?  basic light 100 menthols? 

personally, i don't know what the FED is gonna do, as the storming surf pounds the beach in waves, flowing in and out of this and that, and as da boyz try to "lawfully intervene" to keep markets "orderly" and continue to sell the paper versions of bridges in brooklyn to all who have heard about the great bets of the past, and the wealth produced by economic cycles and, of course, credit cycles, also.   

ask me if i care


the hard core of zH, of which i consider myself a member in inane standing,  is in cash, and PMs, held physically.  period.  we try to control what we can actually get under our personal control.  and, according to bill bonner, our greatest danger lies in not remembering where we buried the stuff. 

because of the economic tides, i think marc faber, in what tyler re-published, earlier, is correct about the markets.  the flood tide is over, the ebb has begun, the tide has turned, and the waves as it recedes are most likely to materialize something like marc's ideas.

personally, i don't think benzelbub wants to print any more digits right now, especially with the incredible fiscal deficit spending recently passed into law, before our incredulous eyes, while asshats, even here, on zH, made up 'alternative' scenarios by employing the term "default" as if it were inevitable if the debt ceiling weren't raised, and now, thru the sausage-making, had been avoided.

now, marc faber wasn't saying that, about default w/out the new debt, was he, previously?  most of the stuff on zH about "default" being a straw man were articles put up by tyler after the deal passed, or bloggers like myself trying to fight the trolls in the trenches, here, while the sausage was being made, the Super Congress designed, and the TparT pretending they needed a new constitutional amendment to stop more debt in july, 2011, which was, of course, a lie, as they collected vast sums of "legal campaign support" for giving the kleptocracy what it wished.  again.  not one man or woman who claims to be ready, willing, and able to lead this nation stepped up and said:  "follow me and we can try to stop this crap and give the American people the choice the voted us in to see."  not one.  rand paul did not step out of line and try a filibuster, for example.  

listen.  when the senate can't muster 60 votes for cloture, they cannot stop a filibuster until they can muster those three little votes that were short of cloture.  when the fuktards you "believe in" don't filibuster and stop the debt ceiling raise, right then,  but instead talk about the need to amend the constitution to stop a debt increase, and pander to the likes of the chinese, the russians, and the christine lagardes who say that to stand against the debt increase is irresponsible, well, if you check yer watch, you might see that it is time to count the silverware. 

it was all an "end play" with the congo not even getting started on the bill until after what some abservers thought was a "deadline" to finish. 

but, as the story now goes, this is the plan that avoided default in august, 2011.

yeah.  that's the ticket.  BiCheZ!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:12 | 1527186 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

benzulbub = CLASSIC

-2 hole in one on the analysis.

fyi, the soft core is long soil & seeds

and short synthetics, bitchez.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 16:32 | 1528081 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, tip_e

all i'm saying is that i now don't see QE III as "baked into the cake" any more.  the chairsatan has $1.5 tril in Ts.  why does he need to print money?  answer:  maybe he doesn't!

there are many who "know what QE means" who troll these boards who do not know and accept the fact that always and everywhere, QE involves printing or creating "money" aka "Funding The Debt".  now, if everyone who doesn't understand this basic fact, and i already know there are many, from the last time we "went" here, decides to chide me for my analysis, i would not be surprised.  again. there will be no QE until benzelbub is ready, willing, and able to print more money.  i simply do not see ANY need for him to do that here, and i don't care what the fuk you, or anybody else thinks about or "grades" that idea of you're too smart to lower yourself to my level 

thank you for playing

you seem wonderfully "intelligent" in negating my "analysis".  as you would know, if you were familiar with my comments, i also understand the need for food, supplies, and bicycles. really

thanks, again for straightening readers out, here


Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:33 | 1530066 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

yo slew, fwiw, totally agreed & agree with your analysis on benzelbub & the concritters.   personally believe it's right on.    just thought you'd like getting a (-) instead of (+).   sorry the humor didn't bleed through, it was a stupid joke anywho.   besides, golf sucks.  no need to get all bent out of shape about it.   the whole rating thing is a bit silly, don't ya think?  you seem a little thinskinned for a pirate, mate.

btw, my comment about soil & seeds wasn't calling attention about the need for food & supplies.   more about pointing out the difference between accumulating stuff vs. creating something outta nothing.    just a different POV.   no need to haggle over which one's superior to the other, universe will make that decision for us all in the end, maybe just maybe by forcing each side to see the wisdom of the other in order for both to be able to survive.   we'll see...

until then, have fun counting your pieces of eight and i'll have fun turning my black gold.  it's all good brother, really.   and thanks for the reminder about the bicycles -- agreed that a well-oiled steed is an asset, indeed.




Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:58 | 1527117 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Lets just summarize how effective QE2 was? We still have an unemployment rate of 9.2%, actually 14.5% if you take the L out of the BLS numbers. We have inflation up nearly 8%, record numbers of people on government assistance, housing prices still in freefall, a government that can't even pass a budget, a record 5 million + currently delinquent on their mortgages, a whopping 36% of homeowners currently underwater in their homes, a new wave of Americans fresh out of college and jobless owing a staggering 1+ TRILLION in debt with to means for repayment, consumer confidence in the tank and more and more Americans struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile all the junkies that hoarded all the money from QE2 are now lined up down the street from the clinic begging for more methadone to help them with the withdrawls. The Stimulus was a complete failure. QE1, QE LITE, QE2 and all the other Keynseian programs have proven to be nothing more then an attempt to spackle and paint the room to cover the real truth. Without this money the system will fail and our government will fail so they will continue to dig us deeper into the hole to bury the terd and keep Americans from smelling it. The last time around we spent nearly 16 TRILLION dollars and dropped rates from 5.5% to .025% to keep the ponzi from coming unraveled. This time around we don't have another 16T to buy another bandaid or do we have the ability to drop rates further. The junkies are simply running out of dope, when will they realize that their drug addiction has costed America much more then it ever gained, and when will they stop this nonsense and just admit they have a problem?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:00 | 1527121 nyse
nyse's picture

Cool. So probably no recession then. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:01 | 1527125 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

33% chance of a recession

Where has he been last 3 years? 

unemployment rate edging up to 9¼% by the end of 2012

More like 29¼%.  It's 22% now

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:03 | 1527133 greenbear
greenbear's picture

Silver Update 8/4/11 - Deflation Scare Redux

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1527147 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

33.3% chance of recession, 66.6% chance of global meltdown.

A picture is worth a thousand words:


Oh, and /snark of the day (and utter balls deep snark it is):

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 12:41 | 1527354 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Jobs, industrial production, trade balances, GDP, who cares about that shit.  A falling stock market is the only justification a Wall Street economist needs to forecast another recession, i.e., need for emergency QEn; particularly when your own company stock is down 10% for the week (GS trades @ $122.35 on  8/5/11).

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 14:45 | 1527831 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

Probably the EFSF expansion announcement and next weeks fomc will change the underlying assumptions of their forecast.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:51 | 1667422 chinawholesaler
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