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"The Carnage...The Carnage..." - Presenting The Complete September And YTD Hedge Fund Bloodbath

Tyler Durden's picture


HSBC has just released their latest weekly hedge fund return compilation report. There is no sugarcoating this: it is a complete bloodbath. It is no surprise why hedge funds are desperate to pull off any sort of month end rally. Without it we fear the hedge fund space, which at last check was approaching $2 trillion in AUM, will collapse by 25% after the new year when the full carnage of the redemption requests is made public. And while we know that Paulson is a, well, liquidator is such a harsh word, but if the word fits (unless of course he makes whole all of his more "senior" investors with his personal cash, something which has been vaguely rumored), we certainly had no idea just how pervasive the decimation within the hedge funds ranks was until we saw the mid-September results. We really, really hope the collusive short squeeze-cum-month end rally works out for the hedge fund community, becuase it really will be "or else."

Summary YTD performance, in which we find that the Paulson Advantage Plus is the third worst performing fund YTD in HSBC's entire universe!

Full report (pdf):



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Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:21 | 1716692 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

A Factor in the Gold selloff in the last few days?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:23 | 1716704 brew
brew's picture

reckon so... (outlaw josey wales)

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:13 | 1717174 flacon
Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:58 | 1717131 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:08 | 1717160 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Speaking of Apocalypse Now, I envision the Dennis Hopper character trying (manically) to explain the logic behind the EFSF. 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:18 | 1717185 macholatte
Wed, 09/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1718192 covert
covert's picture

enevitably, the hedge funds will prevail even after a long hardship.


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:26 | 1716709 chump666
chump666's picture

The US market is underwritten via the Fed, so, once a clear sign is to short...that will be the carnage.  Hedge Funds have squeezed out rallies.  But once the ok to short, the Dow and S&P are toast.  Very hard market to hedge in, hence the liquidation trade a week back.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:51 | 1718393 pelican
pelican's picture

I heard that  the number of shorts on the S&P are through the roof.  I wonder what is next...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:29 | 1716720 knukles
knukles's picture

Hedge.  Quaint term, that.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:18 | 1717187 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Zero Hedge, awesome term that is.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:31 | 1716726 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

... no end of the year bonus, really? ...naw, really?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:31 | 1716727 knukles
knukles's picture


"Tulip Trend Fund Ltd., -A"  One of the worst performers.
Kinda like having a nuke named Turkey Point, Millstone, Diablo Canyon.
Didn't somebody take 3rd grade English; foreshadow?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:41 | 1716753 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Even funnier is the fact that people see that and say... "Gee that looks like a great place to put my money."

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:18 | 1717018 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

knuckles: bitchin' like that, then, if u have any integrity, ya gotta' shut your computer and your house off for 20% of the time. - Ned

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:40 | 1717085 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Knuckles be dissin there engrish dawg, notz dez nukz. If theyz gots the saem eduacation in amerika, dey no dat fourshadow be a rappa.Holla at yo boy, I getz fiat!

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 07:46 | 1717848 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I saw you once ;-)

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:09 | 1717162 konputa
konputa's picture

@knukles that is a riot. maybe its a signal to see who has the "smart money".

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:38 | 1717223 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

LOL, I thought you were joking.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 09:10 | 1718025 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

What, were the names "South Sea Fund," and "Madoff Fund" taken?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:40 | 1716748 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Many factors came together to cause the recent gold sell-off, including market manipulation.

Soon many factors will come together to cause a surge in gold price as never experienced before.

European banking crisis   Fed QE3  Asian buying season  Pan Asian gold exchange  Decline of USD

Bond market crash   Chinese housing market crash   Stock market crash   Break-up of the EZ   Fed QE4


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:37 | 1717074 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I concur ... hedge accordingly...

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 00:46 | 1717427 chump666
chump666's picture

A lot of people still don't get it.  The Copper/Silver/Commodity recent sell off had nothing to do with Greece.

It's all China baby.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:44 | 1716764 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thats one fugly report from the guys with ties...the public hose gets a little kink in it and they fall off the edge of the they can make it up with their tears.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:58 | 1716795 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture


It must be depressing when three of the funds on the worst performer list start with your last name. I guess this is what happens when you lose the advantage of a Goldman assist.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:00 | 1716801 Ye Ye
Ye Ye's picture

Ergo, Paulson Disadvantage Minus is one of the best performing funds of the year.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:22 | 1716855 Wannabee
Wannabee's picture


Good one...I'd like a piece of that action. Fund open to retail peon's like me, or institutional only?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:39 | 1717079 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Makes you want to get access to the portfolio and create your own "Paulson 3x Bear Fund"

Bitch would be pullin' 120% YTD.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:03 | 1716804 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

When Paulson isn't illegally colluding-racketeering with god damned sacks to ripoff pension funds he sucks mightily. They should all be in prison. If he wants to make a profit again he should go suck blankfein's dick.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:54 | 1716956 sgorem
sgorem's picture

i have to respectfully disagree with you Mr. buzzsaw, if i may politely correct your statement "they should all be in prison", to "they should all be jambed into a fucking wood chipper and fed to the fucking pigs." there, that's easier for my eyes to read. thank you kindly..... 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:42 | 1717091 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

feet first........ slowly.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:44 | 1717096 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

...and a sinister midget with a bucket and a mop where the blood goes down the drain.


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:26 | 1717207 macholatte
macholatte's picture

........ as the half time show of the Super Bowl.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:43 | 1717237 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"they should all be jambed into a fucking wood chipper and fed to the fucking pigs."  i have to respectfully agree with you sgorem except that you misspelled piigs.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 04:16 | 1717642 Mentaliusanything
Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:36 | 1717329 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

So much anger.

Wouldn't by any chance be due to the recent 40% decline in silver, would it?

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 02:47 | 1717566 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

naw..the pigs would be unfit for human consumtion. You'd risk the spread of mad hedger's disease.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:05 | 1716816 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

so i wonder which one of those from the right column has Liesman on speed dial

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:09 | 1716822 Ye Ye
Ye Ye's picture

I've got a great idea for a new ETF.

Paulson Ultrashort 3X ETF

"The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse of price performance of the Paulson Advantage Plus hedge fund. The fund normally creates short positions by investing at least 80% of net assets in financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the hedge fund. It is non-diversified."

Non-diversified = 3X short BAC.  Which makes me wonder if Buffet Ultrashort 3X ETF could work as well ...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:28 | 1716883 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

please, ye, dont give them any ideas...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:52 | 1716951 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

i will create a 3x ultrashort version of my fund for you if you pay me 6 and 60 to manage it for you :-)

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:19 | 1717023 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

to the Moon!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:36 | 1717069 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

hey, ned, how you doing?


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:41 | 1717088 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Damn haha. Just saw this comment after I wrote mine

I was going to call it the "Paulson 3x Bear Fund"

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:10 | 1716826 Robslob
Robslob's picture



Still don't understand how they can Rally with no one to hand off too?

I guess they draw straws and take turns selling...which is like asking a shark to wait his turn during a feeding frenzy...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:24 | 1717316 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but this is how I envision it. Imagine you have two robots putting out bid and ask prices on their limited supply of stocks. The robots read on their news feed that the CNBC gods have declared that we are not in a recession, just a soft patch. That means that stock will improve in value so they start trading their stocks back and forth each time adding a very small increment to the price. Occasionally as the quoted prices rise the real world enters in as some poor guy has to cover his short position because of the price rise. The robots are even happier now because their trend is confirmed and accelerating. Their little 0100101010101110 brains are in heaven because of the profit they are making. At the end of the day they end up with the same number of shares but at a different price.

In some ways this is the same as the market has always been. Barring an occasional IPO, split, buyback or bankruptcy there are always the same number of shares out there and they are worth whatever anyone will pay for them. The robots can do this forever as long as the impact of real world trades isn't large enough to overwhelm the robotic churn. The algos are more complex than that but when the real world volume is low, price will go where the formulae say it should go.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:20 | 1716852 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I'm trying to imagine a hedge fund "going triple long the thirty year treasury...AND LOVIN' IT!" Hmmmmmm. Nope! Just don't recall that one! Now let's revisit Ms. Meridith Whitney's call on muni's shall we!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:27 | 1716875 Robslob
Robslob's picture



I remember a lot of people calling for the tech bubble to crash...early

I remember a lot of people calling for the housing bubble to crash...again early

I remember a mot of people calling for the (fill in here) to crash....once again...early

They all happened....later...doesn't mean they don't happen.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:59 | 1716968 theotheri
theotheri's picture

remember a mot of people calling for the (NOT SO) PRECIOUS METALS to crash....once again...early

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:44 | 1717095 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture


Damn CNBC (+MSM) and their impeccable track record with predictions! Gold's been a bubble... for a long ass time.

Where's Jim Cramer and Timmay when you need them?!


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:29 | 1716886 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Nothing funner than watching Masters of the Universe lose a pissing contest.  Imagine how much more productive our economy will be without people trying to make 2 and 20 with other people's money.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:49 | 1716943 Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

Errand boys, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a... bonus.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:50 | 1716945 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

There is going to be a mad dash into the worst crap stocks imaginable in the 4th quarter in order to chase some low priced stocks and "make their year".

Expect the unexpected.

Names like Zales, U.S. Steel, Regions Financial, Genworth, etc. are going to get HeatMapped.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:03 | 1716980 sgorem
sgorem's picture

other than Verizon, AT&T, AEP, (as in dividends),the whole fucking shooting match is CRAP, aka., total and silver are on sale though:)!!!! yeeehiiiii............   

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:38 | 1717077 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

attention RobotTrader:

Zales is going to zero. Also, that street high eps of -0.21 for fy 2013 is a pipe dream. And even if they attain it (they won't), they still are losing money!!!

Not short it. Just telling it like it is. Made some nice money on the long side earlier this year. But any good news in ZLC is good for a 1-2 day run; then the progression towards zero will resume. This isn't 2Q 2009 for the market, and it isn't going to be anytime soon. Nobody is dumb enough to think "7% gdp growth is just around the corner, so all we have to do is buy the biggest losers and make a fortune."




Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:10 | 1717158 Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

Nobody is dumb enough to think "7% gdp growth is just around the corner, so all we have to do is buy the biggest losers and make a fortune.

There's several hundred of them continuously attempting to pass a budget off on us in that big domed building in DC that assume just that...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:50 | 1717248 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Who knows, it could happen. Robottrader has 2 to 1 green arrows, that is what I call a tail event. If that's possible who knows what else might happen.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:58 | 1716965 theotheri
theotheri's picture

Criticism of John Paulson makes me chuckle heartily.  He's not playing with the House's money- he's playing with the entire country's money.

Respect anyone who personally earned $3.7 billion in one year!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:10 | 1716996 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Definitely respect the fact that he did that twice...personal net as of last year roughly $15 billion. Not too bad at all.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:33 | 1717064 Diablo
Diablo's picture

what is rarely, if ever, mentioned is the fact that when you invest with paulson you can invest in dollar terms OR IN TERMS OF GOLD. what is always reported is the dollar based returns. no one ever mentions his gold based returns...which (up until last week at least) are, more than likely, positive for the year. 


PS; forbes says he made $4.9bio last year (the highest ever for a fund manager)




Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:56 | 1717126 theotheri
theotheri's picture

JP and guys like him are basically front running the gold trade ahead of the retails clowns that actually believe the ridiculous gold story.  People like JP pumped it up and you can bet they will exist before it collapses again back down to its real economic value.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:53 | 1717254 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

??? How can it collapse DOWN to $5,000? 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:43 | 1717338 theotheri
theotheri's picture

Sory friend, gold isn't worth more than $1000/oz today.  Watch.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:05 | 1716985 Cartman
Cartman's picture

Gee, it's tough to make money when we can't collude with Goldman to sell dogcrap labeled as diamonds and frontrun inside information.  Get Lloyd on the phone!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:53 | 1717118 theotheri
theotheri's picture

Collusion is a crime.  I don't recall ever reading about any charges against JP.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:18 | 1717302 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Do you have to try to be an asshole, or does it just come naturally?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:19 | 1717022 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Hella wealth effect .. Good job Ben!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:21 | 1717030 unununium
unununium's picture

Forget the ones who tanked...

Are there really only 14 funds who are up more than 10% for the year?  That is incredible, given that gold is up 18%.  What a band of numbskulls!


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:46 | 1717101 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Yeah. I saw that too.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:22 | 1717034 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I see 3 paulson founds at the underperforming section.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:38 | 1717076 Diablo
Diablo's picture

how come some big names...notably DE Shaw, GSAM, and Bridgewater...arent on this list?


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:38 | 1717224 nhr215
nhr215's picture

Wow Paulson really blew-up this year. 3 funds down significantly further the market... I mean -36%, holy christ.... how many redemptions they must be getting...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:11 | 1717289 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

i'm always buying stocks when cnbc is saying protect yourself, stay on the sidelines, which only happens when the shit is hitting the fan

investing is real simple these days, let the shit hit the fan, then buy, market collapse, buy, drops 10% in a week, buy, and grab solid dividend paying stocks 

and always have cash on the sidelines, good companies will be around long after the dollar isn't


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:16 | 1717299 Golden Receiver
Golden Receiver's picture

I'm not clear what specifically the "or else" at the end of the Tyler(s) post implies. Thoughts?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:49 | 1717346 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture





Wed, 09/28/2011 - 09:25 | 1718085 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Because other people voted while you were reading the page.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 00:24 | 1717398 Jelogue
Jelogue's picture

I wonder just how much of his gold Paulson got rid of.His grandfather was a bit of a gold bug I believe...ouch..Still not selling mine.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 00:35 | 1717412 walküre
walküre's picture

Maybe if the funds would actually put their money to use and "fund" growth oriented or distressed companies with decent margin returns. But no, funds are looking either for imaginary 30% "upside" or rather "blow their money on hookers and blow". Heard it all.

Geez, I wonder if they're just spending too much on hookers and blow and don't have enough money out there earning them that 30%.

And remember folks, this is supposed to be the "smart" money.


Wed, 09/28/2011 - 04:00 | 1717464 chindit13
chindit13's picture

The Paulson story is an interesting one.  It is also interesting to see folks here disparaging these funds because they did not go all-in in Au and Ag like posters here did.

First, one trade does not a Paulson or Soros make.  Humility is quite a nice virtue, and sometimes the Universe has a way of teaching that lesson in a harsh manner.  It’s a very long game, so perhaps it is wise to wait until reaching the end zone before spiking the football.

Second, it is rather more difficult to enter and exit markets with $30 billion AUM, even if unlevered, then it is to take the spare change at the end of the month and buy a few coins.  Even then, all the folks who feel good for having beat Paulson are paying huge premiums and have upwards of a 10% break even, before taxes every time they add to their stash.  Add in the unfairness that the HFs tax rate is 15%, and they look even better.

Third---and this is most important---why does anyone think Au and especially Ag have had such good runs?  These metals don’t go up magically on their own.  They go up because large players buy them.  Large players might be central banks, but they are also John Paulson, George Soros, David Einhorn, Paul Jones, Ray Dalio, the Brevan Howard Funds, etc., plus the MoMo crowd.  All of those who are patting themselves on the back for their big win should remember these guys when it’s time to send Season’s Greetings cards.  They made your year, this one and the last one. 

Finally, if or when these large players sell---either because they no longer like the trade, or because of redemptions---hopefully everyone will have the maturity not to scream “MANIPULATION”!  These guys caused the updraft, they can just as easily cause a downdraft, especially since long PMs is still crowded.  That most small retail is not playing is irrelevant;  most small retail is worried about their job or the monthly food bill and they lack the spare change to buy PMs.

Frankly, it is quite possible that the huge down move recently is one of these large funds liquidating.  It has a bit of that sort of fingerprint, and if it is not finished, the large holder may just be letting the market breathe before striking again.  We’ll see over the next few days.  Keep in mind that other than HFs, there really aren’t any large players in Ag.  Even central banks don’t much care about silver.  Many Ag afficianados are already long, so a large fund liquidation in Ag could hammer prices.  If either of the metals is purely large player---that is, HF-driven---it is Ag.  Of course if economic recovery comes, industrial demand might return, but that doesn’t look likely.

The best amongst these guys has already round tripped the metals, though he is the most hated of the bunch.  That would be Soros.  Before anybody says he left a couple hundred on the table in gold, remember the difficulty in managing size.  Also remember he gave back all of his investors’ money this year, leaving his fund totally family owned.  To put it in numbers, he returned $1 billion, leaving his fund with about $24 billion.  Seems he won’t lose sleep if he exited Au at $1700 instead of top ticking it.

It should also be remembered that if someone such as Paulson decides to keep his assets diversified and hold 10+% in metals, that would mean at current prices he holds more than $1 billion of PMs, which is likely more than the combined readership of Zerohedge and Turd’s blog combined, even if the readership is double-counted.  Thus, if the SHTF, Paulson will emerge on the other side in roughly the same relative position he is now.   Other HF guys will be in the same boat.  Just as they do in this economic iteration, the same people will have the biggest share of wealth in any subsequent iteration.  Small PM holders will merely change positions relative to the same people with whom they compete now.  Sorry, no Walter Mitty fantasies of buying the Sears Tower for one Monster Box.  No matter how many boxes Walter Mitty has, John Paulson has one more.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 05:36 | 1717698 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Thank you chindit for bringing this to the discussion, all the important players know how the game is played and how the play is gamed.

It would be foolish to think these guys will ever be forced into a SNAP-like program and the only chance we have of seeing the Soroses and Paulsons of the world queuing up for soup is to get them prosecuted and convicted.


Wed, 09/28/2011 - 06:07 | 1717719 Golden Receiver
Golden Receiver's picture

If I'm reading this correctly, GLD is approx. $66B; AUG approx $9B. In the grand scheme of things, not much capital it would seem to me and certainly far smaller than one would believe given the outsized attention they receive.


With respect to physical, how much refined Au and Ag are there in the world, who holds it, and where? Central banks, hedge funds, individuals? How big is the individual "Western", non-jewelry physical market (meaning, those who hold coins, etc) as investments, hedges, or bomb shelter door stops?

Who tracks such information and where is it found? Many thanks!

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 05:45 | 1717704 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

I still don't understand why you'd sell a profit making asset, where the fundamentals are still showing more future profits, to fund margin calls or redemption calls. Tell me, really, where is the sense in doing that? Take downs such as the recent Gold and especially Silver ones, have to be orchestrated to dump that much in such a short time-frame.

And once and for all, the Gold market is not small. Average $31 billion daily just going by LBMA statistics of Gold that is actually transferred. That's over $6 trillion yearly. GATA assumes this is just the tip of the iceberg. Yeah, that's really small. Silver clears about $6 Billion daily.

By comparison, Oil trades c. 33 million contracts a month March 2011 (X1000 barrels/contract) which equals approx ($90/barrel average) $2.97 trillon or roughly six times the Gold market.

data difficult to find for oil, so apologies if incorrect.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 07:27 | 1717808 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Fuck Paulson. That SOB should be sharing a jail cell with Bush and Dick.  Then we'll try the butt-cheese trio for treason.  I already have 3 holes dug.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 07:29 | 1717810 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

On second thought we'll just cremate them or put their rotting corpses on public display in front of Wall Street.  We already have enough pollutants in the ground that would probably ruin the soil for 10,000 acre area.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 07:36 | 1717817 Zola
Zola's picture

These markets are outright weird: the safe havens get taken down while treasuries rally to absurd levels and markets levitate from weak support on mysterious buying which then forces short covering... Exactly inverse action in gold and silver, when they should surge, they are capped. Bizarre.

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