Case Shiller Misses Expectations, Unadjusted Home Prices Lowest In A Decade

Tyler Durden's picture


The February Case Shiller number is out and represents the latest high frequency economic miss, with the 20 City Seasonally Adjusted number printing up 0.15% on expectations of 0.20%. The good news, of course, is that this is the first improvement in the Seasonally Adjusted Top 20 MSA Series since April 2011. The bad news is that this was all warm weather driven, and courtesy of seasonal adjustments: unadjusted the February data declined once again, this time by 0.8%, the 6th consecutive decline in a row, and the lowest number in a decade. Furthermore, the data would be uglier if it were not for prior period downward revisions in what seems to be a page right out of the BLS propaganda playbook. Needless to say, since this data is two months delayed, as many will recall in February the market was soaring on hopes that this time, just once, the "recovery" will be self-sustaining. Then the LTRO aftereffects fizzled, and everything went to hell again. Finally putting it all into perspective, the February data puts the Top 20 City data back on par with price levels last seen in early 2003. But hey - at least we have a very brief and transitory seasonally adjusted upswing.

From the report:

“While there might be pieces of good news in this report, such as some improvement in many annual rates of return, February 2012 data confirm that, broadly-speaking, home prices continued to decline in the early months of the year,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Nine MSAs -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa -- and both Composites hit new post-crisis lows. Atlanta continued its downward spiral, posting its lowest annual rate of decline in the 20-year history of the index at -17.3%. The 10-City Composite declined 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.5% compared to February 2011.


“Due to delays in reporting for Mecklenburg County, we did not publish a January index level for Charlotte, North Carolina last month. With this month’s report we have enough data to publish data points for both January and February. The unfortunate news is that it confirms that Charlotte is one of the cities that is still reaching new lows.

Charting the monthly change:

And the 5-month drop in house prices is its highest since mid 2009...

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Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:27 | 2369575 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

CNBC on iPad first reported a raise, then fall. LOL... WTF...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:28 | 2369580 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Chicago and Atlanta in a depression

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:32 | 2369600 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Housing the only part of the economy, they cant prop up!!!!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:52 | 2369648 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Illinois is a lost cause. They keep giving more money to the public unions to shore up pensions with COLA increases and keep raising taxes and fees. 

People are fleeing Illinois, just like California before their taxed to death. Many people are saying sell and get out of Illinois while you can before there will be nobody left to buy your house.

In and around Chicago public workers are making big wages and pensions. Someone has to pay for these. The public unions keep crying to keep raising taxes to support the COLA and fat pensions.


Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:03 | 2369681 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Illinois is $9 Billion in the red and there is no way out except a bailout...

All other states are not far behind...

My question is, how can a ponzi company like Troll Bros who makes more money selling stock than home sales have a market cap of $4 BILLION? LMAO!!

(rhetorical question! LMAO)

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 08:05 | 2387699 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Good question. "Perhaps if they slashed their dividend by 90 percent" we'd find out...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:39 | 2370083 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Bob Pissonme of CNBS just stated that Case Shiller is a lie

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:52 | 2369892 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

In Atlanta, houses are flying off the market.  4-5 bids for every short sale.  Some of them above the market.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369593 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Correct. I got that as well. Fucking bullshit is all it is. Not sure why I even have that stupid app. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:37 | 2369619 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

I have the CNBC app, FOX news app, HUFF post app, MSNBC app, and a few others in a folder aptly named "Bullshit" 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2369684 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to delete them. Think of the joy you will give to the electrons no longer required to hold stupidity in place.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 08:06 | 2387703 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

CNN thanks you. And yes...I still love you Erin Burnett.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:29 | 2369778 CH1
CH1's picture

Not sure why I even have that stupid app.

So they can track you, of course.

That's what apps do.

"Free" is never actually free.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:34 | 2369606 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC probably had it loaded last nite and just went with the 'rise' story, and I guess next Cramer will run out and confirm another strong housing bottom here.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369586 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Housing has become not an investment, but nothing more than a tax. shelter.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:32 | 2369597 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

And that my friend will be gone next year as well. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:33 | 2369603 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

The strike through didnt work on "tax".

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:35 | 2369611 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Strikethrough only works if you donate to project mayhem, or help make soap

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:50 | 2369654 i-dog
i-dog's picture

LOL. It was a sad day when RoboTarder lost his picture-posting privilege! We should hold a memorial service each year....

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 08:09 | 2387708 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I miss that guy. I miss anyone here who "disappears" actually. And we have had many btw. Review the t-shirt section folks! LONG LIVE ZHer's!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:09 | 2369699 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

re-watched Sunday night... thanks AMC.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:13 | 2369715 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture
US new-home sales off 7 percent in March, largest decline in a year; prices also down.
Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:39 | 2369623 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Housing isn't an investment its a noose...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:32 | 2370052 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Youre right about that, housing is a prison, its just an illusion that you 'own' it, they can confiscate your property anytime they feel like it, and a very crappy historical 'investment' for sure.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 08:11 | 2387711 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Don't pay." GOVERNOR Chris Christie.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:44 | 2369634 duo
duo's picture

housing is a consumable.  Most of the newer  buyers in my neighborhood never heard of yard work, fixing gutters and roofs, paint, etc.  The Real-Estate Industrial Complex told them just to buy and live in it, and it will make them rich.  When it didn' can see the results.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 08:13 | 2387712 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

If this is an attempt at humor it's quite good. We like pictures here in case you were wondering...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2369685 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

The good news is we will only lose 4% this year. It's next year I'm worried about.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:03 | 2369945 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Profound words, Rubbish, profound words you write!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:44 | 2370099 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

agree... hope Rubbish is wrong ... but there is enough out there to actually have to listen to Celente and Joe Wiedenthal ...ugh expanded range of probabilities requires expande3d assessments.

Ray Dalio  basically probably has it correct ... this is going to take a long time.  Eventually, if the 'system' (here, Euroland or greater Asia) does not collapse ... technological change will probably serve as the catalyst to save us from our fiscal & 'entitlement' insanity

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:38 | 2370075 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

My house is about 20% below what I paid for it in 1995. 2002 was quickly passed.

I'm guessing the nation will catch up to my assessed value. Disregard any notion of a bottom.  My housing went down 20% YOY.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:34 | 2369605 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

QE, rally.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:35 | 2369612 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The limbo rock continues. How low can you go?

This is likely to prompt Big Ben to ease on down the road!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:37 | 2369614 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

The collapsing prices in Irvine condos – two zip codes see year over year price drops of 40 percent. Shadow inventory in Irvine is bigger than non-distressed MLS inventory.


Two zip codes in Irvine have seen median condo values fall by 40 percent in the last year. I have alerts setup for threshold points in certain locations and was surprised in the last few months of the number of condos hitting the MLS at $200k but also in the $100k range in Irvine. The mid-tier markets are definitely in a correction mode. I doubt many that buy these condos with FHA insured loans realize the HOA and high taxes on homes in Orange County, especially with Irvine.


Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:37 | 2369618 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Media bleating 'Wheres retail!' in both housing and brick wall about to be smashed into.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:38 | 2369620 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Case Shiller head fake number.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:44 | 2369637 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Can't head fake that chart.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:59 | 2369673 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

I thought it looked like Mount Rainier.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:29 | 2369777 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Little Tahoma.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:42 | 2369631 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I have a friend who has bought, over the past 12 months, nearly 100 houses and apartments in the Fort Meyers area of Florida, together with office blocks and other commercial stuff.

He tells me that prices there are rocketing and that there are 2 - 5 bids within minutes on every short-sale that comes up.   The other day I watched him lose out on a property that sold within 15 minutes of being put up for sale, while he was still discussing with his realty agent whether to buy it.

Genuine question:  Is he making all this stuff up, or is the market there really so different from what I see reported on ZH about US housing in general?  

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:46 | 2369640 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

For every Fort Myer, there are 50 Las Vegas's


Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:04 | 2369683 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


"For every Fort Myer, there are 50 Las Vegas's"

For every 50 Las Vegas there are 10 Detroits.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2369704 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

I knew Detroit was bad, but this bad? Holy shit,MI/price;a_sort

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2370065 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Pretty! I like the wild grasses growing and lack of yard mainenance. Maybe we'll start to see some wildlife moving in (cutting grass prevents seed formation, which is critical for feeding wildlife)! I am not worried, there are plenty of humans.

When Detroit lost respect for their major export (vehicles) they triggered their own decline. From clueless short-sighted management to defensive union leaders, low quality work, backward designs, it took the Japanese to build a really reliable vehicle. Now the young see cars only as a noose around their necks, a necessary evil, not the glamorous object of self-expression. Good riddance I say. The decline of health of Americans is a direct result of their love affair with vehicles and TV.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:43 | 2369840 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I clicked to page 644.  Not a single residential listing for >$1M.  Someone really should document the decline of the Detroit real estate market with the Internet wayback machines.  It is the harbinger for the rest of the country once federal spending has to come in-line with revenue.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:17 | 2369995 Sauk Leader
Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2369706 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

For every ten Detroits there are two Bodie California's.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2369709 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Ah, Detroit

"Who lives in that nice section of the city across the river?" "Canadians"

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