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Cashin Notes Hilsenrath Is To The Fed As Greg Ip Is To The ECB

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Whether it is central bank policy leaked as a strawman or as Stephen Roach notes, Jon Hilsenrath is the new Fed head (as what he writes - prompted by 'friends' - must be adhered to for fear of disappointing markets), UBS' Art Cashin notes a strange coincidence this week. While WSJ's Hilsenrath is the unofficial floater-of-ideas-and-saver-of-markets in the US, it appears The Economist's Greg Ip is the ECB's unofficial suggester-in-chief. As the avuncular Art notes "Mario Draghi's comments stunned the markets. What prompted the timing of the move? We'd like to present a possibility"

Art Cashin, UBS: Timing, Timing, Timing

Mario Draghi's comments stunned the markets. What prompted the timing of his move?

We'd like to present a possibility. On Wednesday, Greg Ip of the Economist, published an essay titled – "How the euro was saved.". Here's how it began:

IT IS always darkest before August. When policymakers head on vacation, risk-takers put their optimism on ice, retreat to cash, and leave markets to find their own level.

 

That’s how it’s looking in Europe anyway. Spain may be on the verge of losing market access. Any warm feelings its government generated with last week's new round of austerity were quickly washed away by mounting bad news on the economy, its regions’ finances, and its banks. European leaders, having announced plans to strengthen the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), can’t act on them until Germany’s constitutional court rules on their legality on September 12th. The European Central Bank remains on the sidelines.

 

It is easy to envision a downward spiral that results in multiple countries leaving the euro amidst a financial and economic meltdown. It is almost impossible to envision the opposite. But somebody has to.

 

In May, Peter Berezin of the Bank Credit Analyst adopted the viewpoint of someone looking back on the crisis from the year 2021, and described what today must seem like a hopelessly idyllic outcome:

Mr. Ip follows up with Mr. Berezin's proposal of a possible solution.

In Mr. Berezin’s telling, things had to get much worse before they could get better. In the fall of 2012, Greece abrogated its bail-out agreement with the IMF, European Union and ECB, declared a moratorium on all external debt payments, and began paying domestic bills with IOUs that it then declared legal tender. The ECB cut off Greece’s banks, Greece responded with capital controls, and relabeled its IOUs “new drachmas” which quickly plunged to 35 euro cents. Bank runs immediately commenced throughout the periphery; bond yields in Spain shot over 7%; global stockmarkets cratered.

 

The ECB was finally forced to act to save the euro: it announced it would buy as many bonds as necessary to cap all sovereign yields at 6%, with the exception of Greece. The ECB never had to buy any bonds: investors no longer had any reason to sell since the ECB had taken insolvency off the table.

Wait a minute! That sounds rather close to what Mr. Draghi was discussing. Coincidence? Probably, but the timing is stunning. Somewhat like the simultaneous but separate development of calculus by Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz in the early 1600's.

 


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Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Long smoke and mirrors.  Short reality.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

There was a quote from the central banker in Weimar Germany and his frustration that the faster he printed money (adding more zero's) the LESS money there was! He was absolutely stunned and shocked! Stunned and shocked I say! And this was coming from an intellectual who probably had a PhD!!!

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment rfaze
rfaze's picture

Ben "Lightyear" will print "TOO infinite and Beyond"...........

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Thats not flying - Thats falling - with style.

Woody

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

These fucking central bankers at the Fed, IMF, ECB, really think they have big balls.  Maybe someday we will find out.

I've always wondered why "Bank Owned" on a for sale sign, isn't an open invitation to mischief.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Young Hilsenrath learned -- and learned well indeed -- at the feet of the master, Greg Ip, before Ip jumped ship from the WSJ to The Economist.

Frankly, Moe Greene's quote comes to mind:

"Do you know who I am ? I made my bones when you were going out with cheerleaders !"

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I need better drugs.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Didn't he also say... As The Devil Is To BurnHanky?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

As the saying goes, don't write checks your ass can't cash.  And since the Germans control the cash, I'd wager that the ECB is screwed.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Right-on Left-off
Right-on Left-off's picture

Yes smokey, so true.

This statement sums it up quite accurately too,

It is almost impossible to envision the opposite. But somebody has to.

You can't get more apathetic and do-nothing than having that viewpoint.  Yes, lets entertain the impossible.  Of course that's where the majority are at.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You'd think the WSJ would get good money from the Fed for printing Jon H's propaganda, spiel, freckled. You know, run a header that says, " This is a paid advertisement "

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

How do you cap bonds and expect anyone who still has free will to buy them?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The same way the fed is now. Print to buy up the surplus. Which begs the question....why doesn't the ECB just buy up all the debt directly?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

The difference in my mind, is that people are still willing to pile into T-bills with no yield because the US "will never default" - but why trap your money at 6% in Spain or Italy where you may very well end up taking a substantial haircut.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

There is a very simple reason, the day they openly do that all private lending (and basically most commerce) would cease. People with real capital aren't going to play a game where their real wealth is being stolen openly. Along a similar vein, the Fed can't really drive interest rates to absolute zero or below because the money market system will collapse. All these wonderful solutions have unintended consequences.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment FRBNYrCROOKS
FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

Nobody buy T-Bonds except the FRBNY and a few soveriegn wealth funds whose economies are worse than ours. The FRBNY is now buying 90% of all debt issued by the Treasury. It's the Ben and Tim circle jerk.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Both US and Eurozone headed for a bleak future because they NEVER LEARN! Obama and Hollande are classic Socialists (or Crony Communists, take your pick). They can't help themselves: massive taxation of "the rich", massive regulation, distorting economic policies.

How can cheap money work when already cheap money has failed?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/27/a-regulated-decelerat...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

FUCK YOU IP! FUCK YOU HILSENRATH! AND MOST OF ALL, FUCK YOU BEN BERNANKE!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment saycheeeese
saycheeeese's picture

let's change... slow and painful death   might be more interesting...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

Yeah, what you said!  +5

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

if you look closely you can see hilsenrath's puppet strings showing.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm looking closely to see where Cashin mentions Hilsennochio. Not having any luck.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

i think he just mimed him being that it's all theatre anyway

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Who will rescue the rescuers?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

The difference is that when Newton and Leibniz developed calculus, they were providing society with a tool that gave birth to modern engineering, and all the productive advances in building, exploration, and transportion that naturally followed.

 

Then, along came the financiers, who bastardized the best attributes of this miraculous calculus invention, in order to grow into nothing more than the largest parasitic class this species has ever incubated...

 

Parasitism sucks.

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So the ECB will try to implement a solution that can not possibly work because it will have destroyed the reason for that solution to have been brought to the table in the first place?

But do investors even need to hold the bonds in the first place? Won't the ECB buy the bonds directly from the governments, bypassing the need for bond investors? Prices, yields, whatever will have no meaning because the money will never actually be paid back.

The ECB will be promised to get paid back in full, even though the only thing they will get in return is more bonds that mature at a later date. It is just the pure expansion of the ponzi.

The ECB will buy 500 billion in bonds to be paid back with 1 trillion in bonds, that will, in ten years time, be paid back with 2 trillion in bonds. So on, and so on, to infinity.

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

This has gone way past comical and now entered the realm of tragic-comedy/surrealist farce.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

'Somewhat like the ... separate development of calculus by Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz.'

More like facism spontaneously arose in Europe and the US after the repeal of Glass-Steagall.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

 The market has been manipulated and convoluted to the point of dysfunction.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

What a shit baked theory. That is they say they will buy up all the bonds but they never to?

BWHAHAHAHAHA

Yes I would have to agree professor Roach:

Crack cocaine is one hell of a drug.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

it announced it would buy as many bonds as necessary to cap all sovereign yields at 6%, with the exception of Greece.

Why not make it 4% or even 3%?  After all the US has 10 year yields at 1.4%

With Central Banks controlling everything, why not go for 2%. Mario, you will have to print only a couple of trillion Euros to do that and no European country will have to access markets to sell bonds - kinda like the Fed buy 61% of all Treasury issuance last year.

Besides, gold and silver and other hard commodities can always be manipulated down so investors have no choice but bonds and stocks.


Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Question, has anyone else noticed that since the middle of May the market has been on a 11-12 day pattern?

The higher low, higher high sawtooth algo pattern. Each tooth is almost exactly 11-12 days wide.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Poor Cashin is ill equipped to deal with todays markets dominated by greyhound packs following the "Pie-Holing" meatball.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

cue pie-holing meatball comebacks

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I assume pie-holing meatballs are a menu item at Denny's?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

now we know about how many they plan to cull

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

oh btw i lost my shirt with FB yesterday /lie

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

1) US growth is at stall speed

2) Greece has one month before it is out of cash

3) Spain needs 300 billion (from where, who the hell knows as the current EU bailout fund is half that)

 

Result:

We have a fucking Bull market rally. I'm living in an Escher painting...

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i wonder if these criminals ever feel guilty they have rendered institutions that have been around for 100 years useless. They should just shut down every econ and finance dept in every instituion of higher learning across the nation. If you have kids in econ. Tell them to bolt. Waste of money. Get refunds.  You know Cashin knows what a fraud this. You can tell by look in his face. i didnt see what the market is doing but now i see robo has come out to play its gotta be all fraudulent-green.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The ECB was finally forced to act to save the euro: it announced it would buy as many bonds as necessary to cap all sovereign yields at 6%, with the exception of Greece. The ECB never had to buy any bonds: investors no longer had any reason to sell since the ECB had taken insolvency off the table.

Hah, nice fantasy. What would happen is they would have to buy an ever-increasing amount of bonds because Greece, Spain, Italy, etc. would have no incentive to bring their government spending in line with tax revenues. Interest rate capping, like any price controls, never is sustainable in the medium- to long-term.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Why do Hilsenrath and Geithner look so much alike?  Just asking.

 

http://www.google.com/search?num=10&hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Wave-Tech
Wave-Tech's picture

inbreeding?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Wave-Tech
Wave-Tech's picture

It seems the more we learn, the more we really don't know.

http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2012/07/the-more-we-learn-more-we-dont-know.html

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

Query:

Timing is NOT a replacement for substance. Or is it?   But humans are easily fooled (maybe I am the fool and canot see 'common sense' right in front of me') .   Capital markets activity since early 1990s (one can argue before...  but back then there were pretty real fig leafs of honest substantive intent & action.  But post Asia crisis, LTCM and Greenspan cutting interest rates to faciliatate the Welfare Reform act signed by Clinton forced on him by GOP (as begged/insisted upon by Clinton ... the Fed became overtly politicized at that moment in my wanderlusting eyes) .... Treasury & Federal Reserve tighht coordination started to lose substance.  Now ... we have chimeras and clever moves/articulations ... but no substance ... none.   I'll forgive TARP 1 as a pure emergency move as 'true' modern savings accounts, money market funds, had seized up post-Lehman collapse ... but ever since .... bogus.

Timing is important ... but as the old lady used to snark ... "where's the beef?".

Sorry Art, Greg Ip is an old hand at central bank spoon feeding the markets/peons (he preceded Hilsenrath as WSJ Fed 'insight maven') ... except the true crony capitalists who have been given 'legal' heads up (calling Blackrock).  But this is becoming nothing more than a great French fiction tragedy ala Honore Balzac

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