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Catalyst Arrives: MBIA Wins Summary Judgment Against Countrywide; Bad News For Bank of America
The catalyst so many have been waiting for, and the nearly 30 million shorts dreading, has arrived. From Judge Eileen Bransten: "ORDERED that MBIA Insurance Corporation’s motion for partial summary judgment is granted to the extent that MBIA Insurance Corporation (“MBIA”) must establish for its claim of fraud that misrepresentations by the defendant(s) induced MBIA to issue insurance policies on terms to which it otherwise would not have agreed and that MBIA is not required to establish a direct causal link between defendant(s) misrepresentations and MBIA’s claims payments made pursuant to the insurance policies at issue; and it is further ordered that MBIA's motion for partial summary judgment is granted to the extent that MBIA must establish for its claim for breach of the Insurance Agreement against Countrywide Home Loans that CHL's breach of warranties in the issued insurance policies' transaction documents increased the risk profile of the issued insurance policies and MBIA is not required to establish a direct causal connection between proven warranty breaches by CHL and MBIA's claims payments made pursuant to the insurance policies at issue, and it is further Ordered that MBIA's motion for partial summary judgment is granted to the extent that MBIA may seek rescissory damages upon proving all elements of its claims for fraud and breach of representation and/or warranty." In short, this is core catalyst that Manal Mehta expected and which BTIG envisioned to justify its $22.50 price target. It is also the judgment that will make Bank of America's case law life a living nightmare going forward (naturally following repeated failed attempts at appealing). Lastly, any and all shorts in the name may have their work cut out for them.
UPDATE: MBI is trading aove $13 in after-hours...
Full summary judgment:
h/t Manal Mehta
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congrats
No worries, it's priced in!
...just like the housing crisis, the euro crisis and ARMAGEDDON!
The only thing not currently priced in is a massive gamma ray burst frying the entire planet, leaving no organic matter. S & P will probably close the year below 1200 in that scenario.
With no sellers left, the HFTs will push the SPX to infinity.
Hadn't thought of that. Unfortunately, it's difficult to back test this type of situation.
Nope. If all life was extinct, funny enough, the bots would still lift the bid at the open......until the power plant runs out of fuel
''...priced in Armageddon''
Haa ha, now that's ah good error. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBz-DwR-de0
It's definitely ''Public Zombie Land upon us now.'' http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UydO-bvYLNc&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PLB1431E117471112C
This is getting better and better, this whole game is coming apart.
Death to (Bank of) America
No way, taxpayers will take it in the ass like armenian (kardashian) sluts.
Too big to swallow, put it right in there...
Oh wow. BAC plunging in after hours. NOT!
It did enough of that in 2011, incidentally as predicted right here back in October of 2010: Can You Spell U-N-D-E-R-R-E-S-E-R-V-E-D? If Not, Here Is A Visualization Aid
I could tolerate some more!
It will take time for most investors and computers to figure out how bad this could be for BAC and other banks as well. Of course it could be reversed by a higher court (if I'm not mistaken, the "Supreme Court" in New York is not the highest court in the state), but if this sticks it is a big deal. I think BOA even listed this dispute in regulatory filings as one that could have material impact on its bottom line if BAC lost (it has), which means BAC considers it a very big deal.
...if it sticks....'someone' might need to point out to the next judge further up the food chain reviewing the appeal that there is a 'national security interest' issue....I rather doubt that this case will ultimately be decided based on the law and who broke it.
It's difficult to 'plunge' from a first story window.
If it drops $5 a share, that's an 86% plunge.
You must have missed the Fed induced trampoline bounce (still going) when it touched $5. They'll defraud Jesus Christ himself if they need to. It's all bullshit anyway.
What would happen if BOA drops countrywide like they said they might?
Shit, bitch.
You the taxpayer still own it -- dripping with fraud from top to motherfucking bottom.
Record bonuses abound, zero prosecutions and Mozillo gets paid.
Drink up sukka you own the bar.
They should - and Merrill too
What does this really mean anyway?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-implodes-mbia-volkwsagen-short-squeeze-candidate
BAC to Appeal to the CONgress?
With Lloyd Shitstain as prime lobbyist?
Whats the over-under on the number of days until BoA goes bust, customers deposits go "missing" and end up as JPM's assets?
Yeah, swpet under the carpet, not to be heard of again was that story of BAC derivatives being repositioned and back stopped by FDIC?
Fortuitous timing on that one, wasn't it? Get all the derivative garbage onto the depositors' side of the ledger, just in time for a huge judicial nail in the BAC coffin.
+ 90 days green
- 90 days red
based on this, someone will take it in the shorts.
2007 CMBS Loan Maturities Portend Payback Issues in 2012Beginning this month, the first of the 2007 five-year CMBS balloon loans will come due.
The balance of CMBS conduit loans liquidated in November skyrocketed, posting the highest total since Trepp began tracking this number in January 2010. The November total was 17% higher than the previous record set in June 2011. At $2.1 billion, liquidations were 60% higher than the 12 month moving average of $1.3 billion per month.
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/2007-CMBS-Loan-Maturities-Portend-Pay...
Looks like can kicking...er, maturity extensions...is the only option if there's cash flow. CMBS has recently been off radar,,,thanks, Cav, for the reminder.
Coming back to the front burner this year as 2007 peak-loans are due....and defaulting. That will leave big holes to plug. Fed will almost certainly pick up the tab, taking these on the balance sheet as Bernanke warned last fall. Now you know why he said that
Private Equity is drooling over the opportunities in CRE between now and 2017. Ya gotta have bucks to profit from this oncoming tsunami... that is, of course, if the bucks are of any worth when you are ready to exploit said opportunity.
Think again. Next article I posted (by S&P) shows vacancies in the US at historic highs. Nobody wants to wade into those toxic waters. They know that there has to be massive consolidation, way way too much commercial space available that the real economy can't support. And won't for decades still. That stuff will just glow like nuclear waste, nobody will touch it
As sure as I sit and type this reply to you, Schwarzman has Jon Grey working out strategy for this situation. And every other 2 bit PE shop will show up late to the game for them to sell to. Not saying CRE will not implode Cav, I'm saying they are COUNTING on it.
They'll likely learn the lesson of paying nickels on the dollar when the assets aren't even worth pennies. Other than tax loss write-offs, I can't see anyone profiting from empty strip-malls that will never fill with viable businesses. Well, other than the car dealers who use the lots for their channel-stuffed inventory.
PE never looks at just one angle... think about what some of the smartest financial minds posted on ZH have been telling people to do: Own REAL assets. Own commodities, own REAL ESTATE / REAL Property... and own it in several countries. Look at the details of the EOP transaction...
The first time I'll buy into a strip mall reit is when it's put together to convert properties into a franchise paintball battle simulation zone. Where club members can duck and dive through store fronts and down stairwells shuck'n and jive'n and shooting the joint up....otherwise I'll wait it out.
I have to admit, I'm perplexed too. With a significant percentage of retail and corporations going virtual, what you're buying there is land with a high remediation cost. Sure, you'll get it fire sale prices, and some of that property may very well be worth something significant in ten years, but I'm guessing that the bulk of this property is likely to be pretty much worthless and will be until about 2035-40 or so when demographics shift back into a more favorable mode: by 2036, the first baby boomers will be ninety and the median BB age will be 81, so a fairly steep die-off at the upper end even as the next large bulge (the Millennials) hits early middle age will be taking place by then. Whether that will equate to a renewed economy at that point is debatable, but I just don't see real estate coming back in a big way much before then.
Things that can be converted to low cost housing and farm land. That is about all the RE I would have interest in for a good long time.
But that's not how the system works. The system works by promises and giving real goods for nothing.
The system doesn't WANT to inflate real estate into bubbles but it's how it "legally" or mind fuckedly "prints" the money. It is completely reliant on growing government growing government wages growing house prices and people moving and refinancing every 5 to 7 years and only 67 percent or less of the population being allowed to "counterfeit". Otherwise the "illusion" of it all comes crashing down and people get to nosey and want to figure out how it works. The banks make all house sellers. Whole based on a promise of the buyer. It got to the point where it nearly made all corportate retailers "whole" based on the promise of credit card holder. It doesn't care about when it doesn't work. It only cares about the times when it does work.
Online retailing is fucking doomed. As it allows for further counterfeiting based on computers and "cloning" based on computers. Computers attempt to distort the value system by taking something created and "cloning" or copying it. Leveraging the creation into infinite clones.
I'm not saying that the system won't slip in adhering to it's countefeiting rules. I'm just saying that once it slips too much the underlying support system of it which is "magical" and emotional in nature stops being able to "pass the buck" off onto the participants in the system and the blame game that works so well starts twisting off into a nonsense unacceptable accusation. The underlying system is corrupt but is still limited by it's own rules.
nothing seized bank accounts can't fix!
Most excellent!!!
S&P Expresses Concern About 2012 CMBS Market
Two new reports issued by Standard & Poor's (S&P) are raising significant concerns about the state of the U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.
One report focusing on the industrial sector within commercial real estate notes that the sector reached a 22-year high on its industry CMBS delinquency rate, which measured at 12.05%. S&P also determined that 47% of rated industrial CMBScollateral has experienced declines in net operating income (NOI) since issuance, and half of these loans are reporting decreases greater than 20%.
"With industrial vacancy rates at historical highs and rents remaining stagnant or falling, we don't expect much near-term improvement in NOI at the property level, and it could even decline for certain properties and markets," says Standard & Poor's credit analyst
S&P reports that $55 billion of U.S. CMBS loans are scheduled to mature next year 2012, including $19 billion in 2007-vintage maturities. S&P warns 50% to 60% of the 2007 vintage five-year-term loans maturing next year may fail to refinance
http://www.mortgageorb.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.1054...
"Mr. Moynihan? Chairman Bernanke on the phone for you."
"Brian? This is Ben. Don't worry, you have unlimited backdoor cash from us at 0.05%. If things get really bad we'll just shovel the crap on your books to Fannie/Freddie."
"Thanks Ben, you 'da man!"
"No problem. Hank and Jamie say hi. We're having lobsters and caviar for lunch, care to join us?"
"Sure, I'll bring the single malt and the cigars; tell Hank I miss Blankfein's dirty jokes about bent over taxpayers."
I doubt the Bernak is eating lobster, he has a kosher swagger. He's eating lox with Blankfein, while Brian has some Paula Dean specials flown in.
The stock ramp up is to cushion more bad news coming later this year.
Also, this one from LA times: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-credit-cutoff-20120103,0,3538902.story
The tan man laugheth.
It's just another reason BAC will file BK on Countrywide and flush that big turd.
It's about darned time to purge the zombies from the system. Countrywide is a deserving place to start. A federal judge and a bankruptcy trustee should have been on the case years ago. The icing on the cake would be a perp walk by Agent Orange. Even better would be to see Agent Orange leading a parade of perp walkers.
Too Big To Flush?
So they charge 12% interest..but what do they pay you to use your money in your savings account.......lol..nothing....and this is all leagal folks....it used to be called robbery a few years back..
Ambac was Bankrupted before their day in the sun. I think JPM had way too much to lose by letting them survive.
Derivatives biz is part of BAC problem. Adding to misery will be 4Q2011 ramp-up in foreclosures following legal release. Imminent wave of delinquencies/foreclosures won't offset new loans. Recent news stories that BAC is reducing/cancelling small biz LOCs cuts into advertised core business. Countrywide legacy remains. Problems, problems, problems. Fed steroid shots have done little to provide price stability in BAC. Am pleased with decision to short at today's closing price.
Wheretofor, henceforth, in the event that, unless otherwise agreed, a priori, ad hoc, modus operandi, arguendo, magna carta, and therefore, ipso facto....
BAC IS PUNKED!
Summary Judgment. Who knew?
More at; Put up or Shut up.
i love it when shit hits the fan and blows back into the face of the shitter....
Don't forget the HFT chart from @badalgo
http://www.nanex.net/aqck/2604.HTML
The HFT were alive and well today
http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2012/01/ndro-blasted-at-112549-60000-quotes-and.html
This suit was identical to the AMBAC v JP Morgue suit. The legal basis is definately identical judging from the complaint.
The only question left I guess is who has liability for Bear Sterns. Jp Morgue only wants the upside and no downside.
Please say this will begin the lulzy fall of the most epic fail bank, ever.
I can't decide whether its brilliant or idiotic that New York calls its lowest courts "Supreme."
Analysis on the decision via Naked Capitalism:
Win for MBIA in Ruling Against Countrywide (Updated: Maybe Not Really)BAC unfazed ??
Ba Ba Ba Ba Bad to the Bone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlwRNCnsbUg