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CAT's Earnings In Context - Expectations Lowered By Over 10% In Last 3 Months
Who are we to argue with the impressive numbers that CAT delivered today - nothing jumps out as obviously dragging forward demand (though we suspect CATFI is very busy with vendor-financing and we know how well that worked out for GMAC) or forced purchases via fuel/emissions standards. Perhaps copper demand today is forced buy-ins on letters-of-credit for heavy equipment sales in China? But for some context, every talking head is noting the earnings beat and outlook changes and we thought it may be useful to consider the 'adjustments' that earnings expectations have seen over the past few months. It turns out that Q3 2011 earnings expectations (chart below) have dropped over 10% in the last three months to their lowest level since Jan11 - and Q4 expectations remain at Jan2011 lows and are also down almost 6.5% in the last three months.
Q3 2011 Expectations
Q4 2011 Expectations
Charts: Bloomberg
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Lots of rumor buying, when do I sell the news?
Cramer will be ejaculating on-air over this.
Sell the rip.
Cramer was dry hummpin for food stamps morring on MSNBC
Banzai could do some good work with this graphic of how depressed earnings expectations are "beaten". Isn't it however the same old trick every quarter (one exception this quarter was AAPL)? Perhaps AAPL was too busy with its various internal crises to be able to steer analysts the right direction this last quarter.
CAT's totally different than EPS-manipulator AAPL....granted the point about whether they are being smart about vendor financing is important but at least you know where the risk is concentrated with CAT; AAPL's entire supply chain is one big vendor financed machine.
Cat is doomed, read China just copied everything from them and won't need them anymore
CNBC is spinning the shit out this irregardless.
Leave it to Tyler Durden to find the cloud in every silver (bitchez) lining...
<short AAPL (405), GOOG (600)
<stupid short idea
The US cut NASA funding because AAPL's share price is going to Mars, privatization at its best
Just another stick up the as* of casino kapitalism
Siino Forest showed earnings of 500 million before they were given the dot. Most people including myself are to lazy to read the financials but just read the headlines or listen to the headlines on cnbc or bnn
well, why not start now instead of posting stupid fucking comments.
A dead CAT bounce, so to speak.
http://cnbusinessnews.com/home-buyers-angry-as-projects-prices-lowered-2/
or as an accountant once told me if you want to hide bad news put it in the third paragraph of a news release
CAT earnings taken in combination with the China data last night is fuelling hopes of global growth, that is for sure.
...and I'm out. All cash until I figure out what the hell my next move is going to be.
I got out mostly a few weeks back when the rally started and rode it long a little but now I'm just out. I figure we're either at the bottom of the next bull rally or at the top and its going to come crashing down. I'd rather risk missing a little bit more of the upside as some sort of data comes out to support the rally than to risk a massive crash out
Got out the end of last week. Couldn't care less about a near term rally. The downside risk from Europe is immense. Don't want to be left holding the bag.
This is driven by zero interest rates....why not buy new equipment since it lowers your operating costs (theoretically you could get rid of your maintenance department completely and just buy a new machine every time one breaks down....funny things happen when the price of money is zero)? This is precisely why the central banks the world over are keeping rates artificially low and penalizing savers. Goose the economy, but destroy the future.
Ramp up orders, don't report cancellations.
Same as Boeing.
Next.
Deere, Cat, Case, etc. - all building new capacity, full shifts and so on...wreaks of a bubble.
CAT is the bellweather of the accounting profession
this is bullish for earthmoving unicorns, BiCheZ
Lower the epectations bar to the ground and then did a hole for it, so it so easy to beat expectations .... always
If CAT will simply STOP trucking parts here and there between factorys and START building COMPLETE products and drive em out things should improve.
Ok so we are up to our nuts in bulldozers planet wide.. no one will need a new one for 60 years
Not true if parts came from GM
You mean companies, etc. fudge numbers just like the goverment does--Who would have guessed?
CAT's biggest competition besides DE - Japanese heavy equipment manufacturers.
Japan has been absorbing almost all domestic heavy equipment since mid-March when the earthquake/tsunami hit. No exports of new or used heavy equipment from Japan.
CAT & DE have ramped up production and are grabbing world market share. Bully for them, but hardly an indication of global economic growth.