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CDS: Blood On The Streets As Contagion Has Been Upgraded To Gangrene
If you think this morning has a September 12, 2008 smell and feel to it... You are right. Complete and total CDS bloodbath in sovereigns and fins means a global bailout may not be imminent, but the market sure demands it as contagion has been upgraded to gangrene. Bernanke has now officially blown it with the twist and Mr. Market demands a $1 trillion+ LSAP, or else...
5Y 5/10's
ITALY 543/553 +25 -34/-16
SPAIN 442/452 +17 -28/-12
PORTUGAL 1150/1200 +25 -270/-210
IRELAND 800/840 +20 -205/-145
GREECE 59.5/63.5 +4.5 0.5/2.5
BELGIUM 285/305 +18 -8/2 - Welcome to the inverted club Waffles
FRANCE 199/204 +10.5 11/16
AUSTRIA 168/178 +8 15/20
ENG 93/97 +8 15/19
GERMANY 106/110 +10
And for the real shitshow...
- BAC 380/410 +20
- AXP 125/140 +10
- GS 270/290 +30
- JWFC 145/160 +10
- JPM 145/160 +10
- MER 420/450 +20
- GECC 280/300 +15
- MS 370/400 +25
- HSBCF 215/235 +10
IG17 147 (+6½) SPA 1128
Sr Fins 16/15 Rolls2.5/3.5 SUB 11/13
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mmmmmmmmmm ....waffles
yep, smells like, feels like, and the timing - late Sept and October right around the corner.
Blood cometh.
Smells like.....victory!
GS+30 bitchez!
Stay home pussies.....we'll take it from here.
BTFD in metals.
smells like ....WINNING!
Winner. Winner. Chicken Dinner.
what is a "shit show" anyway??
the market is aggresively searching for the final bottom.
http://covert3.wordpress.com
All this means is that the banksters have put the people with guns back in charge of our fate.
How does it go Tyler: "he who defects first..."
I won't ever tire to point out that if you allow an immoral instrument like CDS to be legal you'll have the same effect as if you allow fire insurance on other people's houses: lots and lots of arsons.
well said sire!!
immoral...lol.
Youre right, CDS started this collapse! Lets ban 'cds shorting' any other form of selling. ONLY LONGS ALLOWED.
That is the exact scenario I use to describe how CDS' work to people that have never heard of them--which is practically everyone that I speak with. They fully understand how dangerous a CDS is once they know how they work. Arson is the name of the game and how to profit in a criminal syndicate.
Well, people also don't understand that Banks are essentially a fraud, loaning out what they don't really have when clients actually think they have access to their cash on demand, inventing fractional reserve multipliers out of thin air with systematic aplomb, imbued purchasing power that comes at the expense of real savers.
The fraud got away from them due to their greed and stupidity, and the fact that they believed Uncle Sugar Ben (Alan, etc.) would always cover their losses with others purchasing power through bailout.
That CDSs should undermine this fraud is merely sharks smelling the blood in the water. I have no sympathy whatsoever for these crooks finally getting their own. Reality is a bitch.
I do feel badly for the innocent who are about to get sucked down with this shitty-assed vehicle of graft and greed.
Everyone else better be holding onto something buoyant, and be able to fend off those unprepared who will quickly slit your throat to steal your life preserver.
Red herring. Credit/debt money and fractional reserve banking is the bad guy here.
Another red herring. The initiation of the use of force, aka aggressive coercion, is the bad guy. Without people issuing threats of violence (in this case government employees), nobody would use debt money or deposit money with a fractional reserve bank. The initiation of force is the root of all evil.
I can get behind that, for sure. It is coercion that keeps competing currencies out of use. "Allow me to control the currency and I care not who makes the laws". And it is the use of force and coercion that has elevated the dollar to the status of reserve currency. The house of cards is going to fall.
Bingo
And the answer is ... disallow all CDS transactions. Nobody pays and nobody gets. It's paper. TP has more value.
An answer to what question? End them tomorrow or today or even go back in time and make them not exist in the first place, nothing changes. CDS allows a few people who understand the absurdity of the system we have selected to facilitate economic growth to profit during the destruction. I have no horse in the race. Wouldn't impact me if it were shut down. But it isn't the root cause of any problem.
Agreed. The core flaw is the fractional reserve system itself. It is based on debt and leverage.
immoral instrument like CDS
That's why it's called moral hazard, euro dude.
The QUESTION: how bad is going to get? and how soon? (only the shadow knows ... )
S&P500 at 100 and Dow Jones at 800. Timing unknown.
wait til we get more bank downgrades...people will have to hedge their hedges
unleash the kraken...
too funny. you owe me a new keyboard, mine just got spray-drenched in diet rockstar
Kraken up!
Rule 48 and the rests of the book
<-- boom
<-- BOOM
;-)
And XOver at 850! (+48 wide)
Happy days, happy days.
Anything on what's happening to Gold and Silver? 2008 repeat?
I was sure this wasn't going to be a repeat of 2008 for gold and silver.... guess I was wrong.
Yeah, I'm sure the Asians and Middle Eastern buyers are rushing to sell their gold and silver right now.
Or maybe they're watching with great amusement as the mindless and dysfunctional western paper-gamblers trash the price of paper metal as the ponzi scheme unwinds.
Buy and hold physical metal and let this noise play out. A lot has changed since 2008.
The day is coming when a Comex Gold contract won't fetch $5 on the market. Doesn't mean that you'll be able to buy real gold for less than $5k /oz though.
Well if it does happen I don't have any paper to trade it for so I'll just have to ride it out. However I would consider changing changing some of my bullion into junior gold & silver stocks. I would absolutely LOVE to see 2008 prices agian on those.
I've heard this arguement repeated many many times now yet no one has ever really satisfactorily explained what they mean by it. A product like GLD is backed by physical gold. (And don't tell me the gold isn't there because I've researched this in depth and studied the reports of several independent consultants hired by hedge funds who literally went into the vaults and counted the bars.) Gld in essence is the opposite of worthless fiat paper--it is a version of the gold backed currency everyone here pines for the world to return to. In order for GLD profits not to be real or translatable into reams of paper, somebody would have to steal or confiscate the gold by force. If things get that out of hand, what's the difference between my gld shares and your physical? The minute you go to tender your physical for goods or services, it will be appropriated by the same fascists that took my GLD. No?
First, you might want to learn about "leased" gold. Then encumbered gold. Next, check out what happens in a currency collapse. Finally, how will you feel when they settle in dollars and the dollars aren't worth squat?
It isn't about GLD, it is about the entire gold market and how it is managed. Good luck!
Check out china's CDS.
Coming this way fast.
LOL that conclusion is a bit premature?
1734 USD/ounce now. it's got to go a LOT lower before I'm a buyer.
Lower prices will mean the end of the paper market will be there quicker.
bullion will always be bullion but paper is running scared.
ChaChing Baby! My Puts are FLYING HIGHHGHGHGHHG, My PMs are shining, since they all are PHYSICALSSSSS, HEHHEHEHEHE!
Marx sure is partying hard wherever he is.
This can not end well. Gold holding up strangely, no 300 correction.
Bernanke has decided the easiest way to win the competitive devaluation race ($ vs. zeruo) is to have the zeuro dissolve.
mmmm... Smells like well baked flesh...
Smells like VICTORY..
Robert
What is amazing is that Citi,Bank of America and Wells are all downgraded and they can still borrow from the FED at less than 1/4 of 1%. You kidding me!!! Bankster Fuckers!!
Pension funds and insurance co's going to have to dump treasuries and bonds for payouts. Expect new regulations to backstop from DC.
in PM's BTFD..all else go short or stay away..the fed laid an egg
India's Nifty had the biggest plunge since October 2008
I love the smell of burning bankstas in the morning
this is economic porn to me I love it
what I do not get is BNP is stil,l above itsd previous low of 23.05
surely it should be below 20 by now
Reggie, anyone?
Waffles, Chocolate and Beer.
Fuk Greece...SAVE Belgium!!
Look at the bright side--when the grid winks out, everybody will take up reading the classics by candlelight again, America will get un-stoopidified and we could have a renaissance! (Unless they eat the books too.)
Couple lies that it's really time for the MM to let go of:
1.) Stocks are cheap (This phrase evokes a red lividity from deep in my cortex.)
2.) We're still in a recovery, or "I'm confident that we'll skirt the double dip."
3.) "In this situation you can either be Warren Buffet or the guy who sold at the bottom." (A lie because no, Joe Main Street cannot be Warren Buffet. He's slightly under-capitalized.)
4.) "This selling is so irrational!"
Others?
5.) Buy now or be priced out forever.
More realistically that at that point books would be burned for heat.
Start with those keynesian economics books.
... and continue with books on psychoanalysis, catholic catechism, islamic jihad, econometrics, socialism, central banking, feminist theory and other scourges of civilized mankind.
The can gets bigger and harder to kick the farther down the road we get.
As you approach the speed of light, Mass gets bigger and bigger.
Bernanke's black hole is sucking the banksters into the event horizon.
sex , kick ass legal weed , gouda cheese and Tiesto
f*ck greece save holland
'sex , kick ass legal weed , gouda cheese and Tiesto'
Hopefully not in that order because it just gets progressively worse.
Fade the DJ, go to the Rijksmusem and you've nailed it (pun intended).
maybe we can get more meaning to life than just I Pods and I pads now
life will be more simple and better IMHO
The meaning of life is.................42
It is conjectured to be the scaling factor in the leading order term of the "sixth moment of the Riemann zeta function". In particular, Conrey & Ghosh have conjectured where the infinite product is over all prime numbers, p
42 is the result given by the web search engines Google, Wolfram Alpha and Bing when the query "the answer to life the universe and everything" is entered as a search.
What's the stoiry for silver/gold here?
BTFD
What he said.. Ready for Gold $1500.00 and Silver $31.00 great buying opp. Then we will see Gold 2k buy mid October on the restructure demand.
The Bad Guy.
Smells like gangrene - rotton lies from rotting bankstas and their servants. Makes my nose wrinkle.
Quick! Amputate the left leg!
Lost that one in 2008.
I'm not totally buying the precious metal story. I have never seen deflation in my lifetime, which makes it VERY difficult to my head around. having said that, I think it very likely it is about to occur (is occurring).
If we're talking about MASSIVE defaults and biblical debt destruction, then we're talking fewer and fewer dollars.
And can this happen MUCH faster than central banks print money? I think so, when you start adding up the private/sovereign debt, the derivatives, the shadow/off book balances. There's no way the CB can offset those kinds of balances.
I could never figure out how Gold was going to act during the crisis. Sure, it's a store of value, but it's not as liquid as it needs to be, to replace even fiat currency.
Gold has been topping out like every other commodity out there. It's reacting to the dollar just rally like everything else.
In short, I think Gold is in a hot money bubble, just like all the other commodities, the last couple of weeks proved that to me. We won't really know the true panic value of gold until it's quoted in terms of bushels and cows, not dollars. I know people here think that day is coming, but I do not.
It's a world wide demand economy, whether China likes it or not. You can play by your own rules (socialism) for a while, but not long. This is going to be a nasty NASTY downturn, but those things happen when have free markets, which I believe we have for the most part.
I think in eighteen months or two years, the dust will be settling. The US and the greenback will come out on top, and the world will hate us for it, like always.
In the meantime, I plan to short the financials into the ground, that's obviously where the weakness is. And too, those bastards deserve it. I wish I could short the politico.
"And can this happen MUCH faster than central banks print money? I think so, when you start adding up the private/sovereign debt, the derivatives, the shadow/off book balances. There's no way the CB can offset those kinds of balances."
How long does it take you to hit the ZERO key on your keyboard?
How long does it take to hit it again?
Central banks can create infinite money instantaneously, and you can rest assured that at some point soon, they will.
What Rusty said. Also, deflation is always the boogie man that the fractional reserve debt-money system is fighting. It's like Batman and Joker. Will deflation defeat us this time?!?! Not if Benron can help it! Oh look, lots of inflation! Bernank-ron f%#$ing did it! Hooray!
In the UK, you could bet on politics. In 2008, there used to be a bet that would pay out if Barack Obama is assassinated during his first term in office. The odds were stacked 12 to 1.
I placed a bet on HFD.TO on Sept. 8th based on that same 2008 smell.
I have a feeling thatg Prechter and his stromng dollar theory may be correct
if all the worlds debt is in dollars than stands to reason as it gets paid or defaulted the dollars value rises?
Mutatto
I think the gold argumnet was that we do not have free markets and the Bern ak would QE to infinmity but that is proving so far to be false
I think though that when things do go 2008 again ie s and P to 666 then they print again
I think we will get both m aSSIVE DEFLATION, THEN HYPERINFLATION
i THINK THATS WHAT gold is telling us
The lower the price of gold, the more affordable it becomes for the tens of millions of Chinese who are buying a gram or two a month. Keep this up long enough and a very sizeable % of the world's gold will be buried in Chinese gardens, beneath Chinese floors, etc. Then it will be incredibly simple for the Chinese state to swoop in and gather up all those little gram coins and voila - China will be sitting on most of the world's gold supply. Just do the simple math, using any numbers you like. 100,000,000 Chinese each buying 1 gram a month, 2 grams a month, etc. Or drop that to 50,000,000 buying 1 gram, 2 grams etc. Any way you cut it, the world's gold is being sucked toward China, and it is being facilitated by the West's central banks, bullion banks, and governments - for who knows what possible conceivable reason?
And by the way, do the same with silver, only increase any numbers you use by a factor of 10.
I have no doubt they will print again.
But the debt balances I've seen? The Derivatives? The shadow banking? There is just no way they can handle a worldwide financial crash.
Look what it did to the US balance sheet when they BARELY saved C and BAC last time. Now we're talking C, BAC, WF, 15 national banks in EU, sovereigns.
I think people have finally started talking about letting bankrupt entities go bankrupt, which we all knew was going to happen one day anyway. Moody's downgrade yest was all about the gov't not willing to step in next time. Germany is steering the conversation toward letting Greece go...We also FINALLY have a handful of congressman not afraid to ask "how much will it cost and who is going to pay for it".
Personally, I don't think China has the means to even save themselves from the implosion.
As far as having a free market - I think it actually is a fairly free market, in most of the world. It might be very difficult to do things on your own terms and live differently than those around you, but imo, it's possible. The fact that it was possible to make money on the "warning" melt down, and that we are here discussing opportunities of the current sell off means I am free to make my own mistakes, thank goodness. To the people out there, who do not read the likes of ZH. They deserve to be led into they mess they bought into. They DON"T deserve to be bailed out w the money the gov't took from ME!
Free market implies the freedom to fail! THAT's where the problem has been.
Gold may go up, I doubt it.
Financials are definitely going down.
<How long does it take you to hit the ZERO key on your keyboard?
How long does it take to hit it again?>
Cute. But not very useful.
<Central banks can create infinite money instantaneously>
They had a blank check in '08/09, the money went no where fast!
Actually, that's not true. It went into gold and any/all the other liquid commodities (including equities). The only reason it didn't go into real estate too, was because real estate is not nearly as liquid. The exact same thing happened w QE II
< and you can rest assured that at some point soon, they will.>
I think they will try again. What will that do? Get the liquid commodities re-flated w/o solving a damn thing.
Infinite money will bring high interest rates. Who will owe more money at that point than anyone else? The CB's.
That's a dead end road they won't go down.
Defaults and bankruptcies are the only final solutions. If I can figure that out, it might take an Ivy league banker a little longer to understand it, but he will eventually see it.
That means massive MASSIVE dollar destruction.
So long as gold is denominated in dollars and not bushells and cows, that can only mean gold will come down.
What's $1T among friends?
Just imagine how much that LSAP will be worth when the recovery comes!
/sarc