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CDS Rerack: Equity Catching Up To Credit
While equity markets in the US have been hurt hard the last 24 hours, credit has been signaling notably more weakness than equities for a while. Today's action follows a similar path to Europe with equities underperforming credit and catching up to credit's view. Last night saw the credit indices close considerably cheap to their fair-value as investors grabbed index overlays as the most liquid hedges - today we some unwind of that as HY bonds are net sold and single-name CDS are decompressing considerably.
IG17 5Y is +5.75bps at 145.75bps but fair-value (single-name driven) is +8.5bps at 144.5bps (so clearly macro hedges have been unwound into micro hedges). HY16 3Y is +29bps while fair-value is +40bps reflecting a very similar pattern of rotation and that is helping credit appear to be outperforming equity on the day from the top-down - but realistically it is not pretty under the covers.
US Banks have been crushed with many showing inverted (or at best flat) curves:
BAC +35 at 405bps
C +25 at 285bps
JPM +12 at 157bps
WFC +11 at 155bps
GS +25 at 292bps
MS +38 at 397.5bps
Insurers are dramatically wider also (as their levered exposure to HY debt) with our mini-insurer index +15bps at 219bps.
Interestingly low beta credits are underperforming (which fits with rotation from macro to micro hedges) and we suspect this is simply a reflection of buying the cheapest protection available as opposed to reflective of creditworthiness among some of these names.
The Energy and TMT sectors are almost as weak as Financials with CONSumers outperforming overall but still notably wider.
Finally, in keeping with our theme today on sovereign risk, USA protection costs have spiked 7bps to 57.5bps - back to late July wides.
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A quick aside...
...Where in the world is Mohammed ? A two-day bath such as this, and nary a glimpse of El-Arian's mug on CNBC.
and where is Buffett? someone needs to be cheerleading this fiasco.
banks are about to cliff dive
But hey jobless claims are down. Don't overlook that.
Is there anyone more unaware than Zach Karabell? What a tool?
He will be fired!
interconnectedness is a bitch
Buffet should continue his investing in financials, this should be great news for him.
Why is MS almost at BAC levels? Are they in trouble?
I'm sure its just the HFTs, they should be fine...
Holy, oil is down $5.4 - global recovery, bitchez.
Do you really think the gov or fed are going to let any US banks fail. I doubt it since they have taken extraordinary steps to keep them as walking zombies.
the world is BENding over, just asking for the big one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!