CDU's Michael Fuchs "Greece Cannot Be Saved, That Is Simple Mathematics"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since it has now become the norm to spread myth, fairy tales and magic during the week, only to collapse the wave function of an insolvent "developed world" with a double dose of reality during the weekend when markets are conveniently closed (recall the Draghi in a Box phenomenon) only to repeat it all again the coming week, here is some more truth which may force Citi to hike its estimate of Greece leaving the Eurozone from 90% to 110% (or about how much of QE3 is now priced into the market): "Greece cannot be saved, that is simple mathematics," Michael Fuchs, deputy leader of the parliamentary group of Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party told weekly business magazine Wirtschaftswoche." Indeed, truth hurts, especially when accompanied by math. Which sadly is the problem these days in a world where math and surreality can no longer coexist. And sadly, in the absence of money growing trees, where one can create wealth out of thin air, not fiat dilution, disappointments such as these will only propagate until the game (over) theoretical equilibrium we discussed yesterday has no choice but to finally make its appearance.

"Greece cannot be saved, that is simple mathematics," Michael Fuchs, deputy leader of the parliamentary group of Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party told weekly business magazine Wirtschaftswoche.

 

"The government has neither the will nor the means to implement reforms," he said.

 

Hermann Otto Solms, a financial affairs expert for the FDP, also underlined in an interview with Wirtschaftswoche that should inspectors from the so-called troika criticise Athens's progress there should be no new aid for Greece, and it would have no choice but to leave the single currency.

 

Roesler ruffled feathers last weekend when he told a German broadcaster that a Greek euro zone exit was no longer a taboo for experts and had lost "its fear factor." A party colleague branded his remarks "reckless."

 

In his interview with OZ Roesler dismissed widespread criticism of his stance both from Athens and within his party.

 

"In my ministry we've seen that the Greek government has been unable to implement very much."

 

His comments come amid a growing chorus of voices within Merkel's centre-right coalition that insist there can be no new aid for Greece and that a Greek exit could be imminent.

To summarize: euphoria meets despair, as everyone from one side of the stock market ship scrambles to get to the other, and as the amplitudes of market moves become larger and larger, thanks entirely to central bankers destructive influence on capital allocation, until finally one day the entire market drops to below zero, which as the Fed itself was kind enough to tell us it would have been in 2009 if it wasn't for the Fed itself.

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Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:23 | 2658877 TrainWreck1
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Fuchin' A right!

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:41 | 2658903 veyron
veyron's picture

The sheer number of analysts which are now talking the bear case suggests to me that there may be a way out of this mess ...

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:00 | 2658929 engineertheeconomy
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There is no country that can survive central banking, that is simple mathematics

fixed it 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:54 | 2659058 Thomas
Thomas's picture

But also Greece has no history of prospering in the recent era (common era). This is not about sucking it up; it's about completely retooling attitudes and societal norms. Tell us how that works out.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 16:34 | 2659395 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Hotels et al are about 25% full this peak season. There is no money. 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 20:02 | 2659591 engineertheeconomy
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 Let me help you out here. The problem is the corrupt Bankers/Politicians that are sucking all of the wealth out of their country. They need to boot the sons of bitches out and either print their own godamned money or go to a Gold Standard, that includes trade and barter.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:01 | 2658930 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

The SHTF in Greece right after the Germans are done vacationing.  Sunbathing amidst rioters loses some of its allure.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:23 | 2659018 One Ton Lady
One Ton Lady's picture

The New Dawn party knows what needs to be done. They are ready to kick ass and take names.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 20:04 | 2659595 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

U fucking Cunt troll

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:10 | 2658943 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

There may be a way out of this mess?
Give me a break. If there was don't you think the USA would have applied it for herself as well?
Since when does a debt fuelled spending orgy have a painless way out for either the borrower or lender?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:40 | 2658985 flacon
flacon's picture

Polonius:
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

Hamlet Act 1, scene 3, 75–77

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 13:49 | 2659119 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Brilliant!

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 14:52 | 2659233 blunderdog
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Although this may be an appealing quote, one should be careful to recall the story. 

Polonius was a fool who made every fatal mistake he ever had the opportunity to make, and was responsible for the tragedy that is the climax of Hamlet.

On the other hand, fuck Shakespeare.  A pop-culture icon who achieved fame rewriting others' stories and presenting them for the amusement of his audience.  Such wisdom can easily be found in the average Three's Company script if you care to look.  Everyone always knew Larry wasn't good for that $50 he wanted to borrow from Jack.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 20:08 | 2659599 engineertheeconomy
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The lenders are the first sons of bitches we're going to aim at when the shooting starts. They're at the very top of the good/evil scale right next to Shalom

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:29 | 2658882 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Oh really? What a revelation,  Print or die, make up your f*ng mind already.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:23 | 2659021 One Ton Lady
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Print or die?  Sounds like Perl programming.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:55 | 2659060 Thomas
Thomas's picture

"Print or die" is using the wrong Boolean term. I think they meant "and"

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 14:07 | 2659137 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

1. Print or die.

2. Print and die.

3. Die and dead.

I think that about rounds out the central banking syllogism.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:47 | 2658885 Manthong
Manthong's picture

So does that mean next time around we will overshoot zero and they will be paying to have folks take equities off their hands?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 18:42 | 2659524 monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

Well, If money is debt then that one potential outcome isn't it?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 20:12 | 2659606 engineertheeconomy
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Money is created as credit, not debt. Newly printed money is a tax on existing money, and does not need a tax to pay it back. A Banker should never be allowed to just print money, Bankers are the most dishonest people in the world and should all be arrested and sentenced to life without parole.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:32 | 2658887 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Loved this (via Calculated Risk):

 

Here was Lou Barnes reaction [to Draghi's latest]:

Sentiment turned yesterday on ECB President Mario Draghi's "...The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Believe me, it will be enough." He went on to announce his plans to date Jennifer Lopez tonight, Kim Bassinger tomorrow, and win the decathlon gold next week. 

If a central bank has to promise to preserve something, odds are high that it is already dead. This is the talk of 0-10 football coaches. Imagine if an American Fed Chair said he would "preserve the dollar." Not defend its value versus other currencies; not prevent inflation or deflation, but preserve its existence? Elbow the women and children out of the lifeboats.


Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#D0HsujLOUahJS0rP.99

 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:22 | 2658958 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well if we think in terms of the word "preserve" i does in many ways mean "you're dead already." hence "the fight is with the Germans" is it not...that WANTS a strong euro, no? And if we were to continue down this path CB Draghi also adds the rejoinder "believe me"...which is interesting because "it is a matter of faith" it would be appear that "upon death this thing is preserved." And interestingly...he finishes with "it" will be enough. What will be enough exactly? The way we kill it? And what does he mean by "enough" exactly? "Just enough so that it crushes you phuckers in the North...but not so much to hurt our recovery in the South"? I'm probably just reading into the words too much again. I'm sure this is all he meant:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3weMpZHfNE

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:23 | 2659019 Rusticus
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"The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro."

 

Museum curators will be tasked to preserve the Euro ... the display cases of various Euro denominations to include; humidity/temperature control and the ironic "please do not touch" signs. 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:57 | 2659066 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I think the Euro will continue to trade, but only on Ebay.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 22:44 | 2659822 Weyland_Yutani
Weyland_Yutani's picture

They will need a lot of formaldehyd to preserve the Euro.

Sun, 07/29/2012 - 14:15 | 2660498 TruthHunter
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Imagine if an American Fed Chair said he would "preserve the dollar." 

I picture jars of Formaldehyde...

USD; eventually a museum exhibit.

Edit>/  Oh well, by the time I posted this, I see everyone's thnking is in the same gutter...

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:33 | 2658889 pasmurf
pasmurf's picture

What the Fuch Michael? when math doesn't add up, print, spread rumors lie, and at last resort, get the Fed to feel sorry for the EU dollar liquidity issues.  Problem solved eh?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:34 | 2658892 Heroic Couplet
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Greece does not have a Central Bank and may join Iceland in giving a one finger salute to the private bank cartel families. That will be wonderful. I just finished reading Predator Nation by Charles Ferguson.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:58 | 2658926 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The Bank of Greece which is the central bank of Greece, has its shares traded on the Athens Stock Exchange. The government owns under 10% and the rest of the owners are unknown due to an exemption under the original charter imposed by the Brits in the late 20's.

The plan going forward will be to asset strip Greece and have multinationals then move in as messiahs to run everything as an act of "benevolence".

What Fuchs says has already been said by a number of people for over two years. The last two or so years have simply been used to prop up the rancid banking system of Europe, to further indebt nations and to break the will of the people across Europe whilst enriching those in the know.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:45 | 2658901 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Practically nobody can be "saved" within the Eurozone. Hope Italy goes out as soon as possible, Italy first just because half my family is suffering in Italy. Hope Greece gets out quickly too, because of my grec friends. Hope they default and leave all the fucking banksters fail as it's required to end this agony. Hope we all go back to real economy and abbandon the perversion of this financial "casino".

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2659106 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Off topic, I just read an article about how the Arg's buy dollars and trade property in dollars(which were recently practically banned) to stave off their inflation.  The Arg Govt wants dollars to stay in the country to safeguard their central bank's international reserves.  I study countries that have gone thru a financial collapse to see how they handle the aftermath.  I don't understand why they continue to have a debt crisis and such high inflation(20-25%/yr), any thoughts?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 14:45 | 2659217 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Argentina doesn't have any debt crisis. State sovereing debt is around 17% of GPD (private sector ext. debt not included). Just trying not to fall again under the hand of those nice guys from international finance. Moreover, Europe is desperately calling for fresh money from all their firms in South America, especially banks, so mesures are being taken to avoid the leak (meaning: Brasil, Argentina and others to avoid them to take our savings away as they did in the past so freely). Too many so eager for real assets backed liquidity ...

Basicaly trying to prevent South America to fall again into a crisis when LAmerican fundamentals (including Central Bank collateral/reserves) are all right, just to control the EZ fever for a few minutes while we all know it's gonna go up as long as they try to keep the Euro alive.

If out savings are in national currencies and cannot easily be converted into euros and/or US dollar robbery becomes harder.

It's hard work, anyway. You all know what kind of weapons they handle.

(Forgive my poor English)

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:22 | 2659278 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Your English is fine.  I have a figure of 44.2 % debt to GDP for 2012, but it seems to be improving http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-debt-to-gdp

I understand Argentina is off to the printing presses again as the Govt. tries to stimulate consumer spending and job growth. Sounds like more Keynesian madness. This must be what is causing the recent spike in inflation. http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2012/07/27/critics-say-new-argentine-banknote-not-bill-enough

The way I see it, solving these debt-to-GDP problems without printing money requires one of two things. Cutting spending to reduce debt or encouraging growth to increase gross domestic product. My point is that defaulting and restructuring debt is not going to solve the problem if the system currently in place is unsustainable.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 16:06 | 2659342 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

"My point is that defaulting and restructuring debt is not going to solve the problem if the system currently in place is unsustainable."

Right.

But for the information about Argentina, you better believe me as an italo-argentinean free professional who runs her own business and has many employees (far more than a hundred) I'm able to pay every month. Data on corporative media and corporate institutions isn't accurate, as you know. Moreoften it's propaganda or counter-information. As Argentina defaulted we're not an example to be shown off, considering the present west scenario up north.

A teacher working 20 hours a week in highschool, with 10 years of service, gets 1000 USD; a truck driver 1800 minimum (more like 2400). Best meat u can find it's about 10-12 USD per kilo (the unit we use); milk 0,7-1 USD x lit., chicken 5-6 USD x kilo. Schols and Universities are for free (private school is people's choice); public health system is working fine except in Buenos Aires City, a very big over-populated megalopoly (again, u can choose private services), we're doing fine and many people is being rescued from the misery they were pushed into in the 90ties and/or was part of structural poverty. Unemplyment is around 8%.

Argentina, as other countries in South America, is self-sufficient in food, energy, water, minerals...

Not so bad taking the world picture into account. But we're not alone and in my opinion the system you're talking about won't live South America be (predators are always hungry). So I must agree with you. If we've been doing well since the default, we're definitely gonna be affected by the huge financial mess and the structural problems of USA and Europe. Because as many here at ZH say (and it's known all over the world), there is no free market out there (in which Argentina would keep performing perfectly), but a bunch of speculators and a very disfunctional élite that distort each and every element of economy by any means (including conquest wars) for they extraordinary and exclusive profit.

Too complex to develop in a comment but I guess you can understand my point of view.

 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 16:47 | 2659409 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Many ZH readers are free market libertarian minded people who believe in sound money and small Govt.  The exact opposite of what they are doing in Argentina.  Good luck.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 16:57 | 2659414 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Thanks. Do not mistaken: Argentina isn't socialist.

We also believe in sound money but not above people. We kind of humanists-capitalists.

I can't be happy if most of the people I'm sorrounded by is starving. That's why I'm libertarian, ok, but I'm willing to support a gvt that takes care of those unable (for a number of possible reasons) to self sustainability.

You whoudn't shoot them out,  would you?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 17:21 | 2659445 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Argentina isn't socialist? :)  FYI, Free university education and free healthcare to ALL is very socialist.   The top 17 Universities in the entire World are in the USA for a reason.  You can't be a little libertarian like you can't be a little pregnant.  I not going to convince you but know that you're 1 step from Venezuela.

Sun, 07/29/2012 - 03:57 | 2659958 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

The USA are "top ten" in many other issues, as the Roman Empire used to be for better and worse. I'd rather prefer to drop the matter. About socialism: There isn't such a thing as "little socialism" either. As a matter of fact, socialism exists only in theory; it was never implemented as a paradigm by any State. Following your argument we must believe England is socialist too because of his public hospitals.

On the other hand, we don't need to convince each other about anything. I think Humanity needs to evolve in order to be able to improve. We haven't done any better for thousand of years now. Just have more sophisticated tools to do the same again and again.

 

Sun, 07/29/2012 - 16:58 | 2660804 delacroix
delacroix's picture

I thought argentina began importing energy recently?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 22:22 | 2659798 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Everything (or close to it), gets traded for worthless pieces of paper, until the collapse comes.  Then, no one (or very few), have the wherewithal to create anything of value (i.e., NO capital left).  Finally, the idjuts in charge do the same thing they've always done:  Print more Munny.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:46 | 2658908 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

REVOLUT

 

Ah fuck it.

 

 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:13 | 2658945 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

What is taking that hundredth monkey so godamned long?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:30 | 2658967 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Porn most likely.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:49 | 2658911 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Greece can't be saved, The Euro-zone can't be saved, and the EURO can't be saved.

California can't be saved, The North American Free Trade Zone can't be saved, and the US Dollar can't be saved.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 11:16 | 2658949 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I for one don't want to be saved. Their attempts at saving me and the system since the GFC set in, have been killing me. Please no more.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 12:28 | 2659029 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I agree. When a govt official or central banker utters the word "saved", what they mean is "save the status quo so I can continue my life of power and luxury". Unfortunately, we (the unwashed masses) are collectively such dumb fucks who can't think critically for ourselves that we buy into the idea that our leaders must "do something" to "save" us from a fate worse than a fate worse than death.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:49 | 2658913 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

I suggest to read also Karl Lamers (Cdu). I deem that we will listen less nein in the future.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:59 | 2658927 Haager
Haager's picture

Less nein stands equivalent for less value. Do you feel comfortable with less value?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 10:52 | 2658916 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

Simply revise the formula.  Problem solved. 

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