Central Planning Update (In Theory And Practice) - You Are Here

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Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:01 | 2020573 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Planned Chaos, bitchez

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 23:22 | 2020750 economics1996
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Here is what he was saying.

When the Fed keeps the interest rate 3% higher than the inflation rate good things happen.  Volker-Yes, Bernanke-N0.

Central planning is BS and most economists are full of BS.

Irving Fisher was an economic illiterate.

Deflation helps consumers and hurts capital owners.

Elitist hate deflation, see above.

End the Fed.

Austrian economists are the only ones worth a crap.

 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 00:46 | 2021029 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I think he is wrong about volatility being a good thing though. He is right that volitility is from the market not being, or at least resisting market manipulation however I would hardly call instability a "good thing". This is the front end of shit you don't want to see the back end of. The volatility is going to get worse, and when it does civil unrest will increase.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 03:46 | 2021114 Michael
Michael's picture

Barack Obama is the god of the country, or though, he actually thinks he is.

What Obama says goes, goes! Even though there are cases pending against him like that Fast and Furious thing. No one dares to question it. 

Just imagine what that kind of power coursing through your veins feels like if you were BO.

What would you do?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 04:00 | 2021115 Michael
Michael's picture

Obama's behavior indicates he bows to the whims of the banksters. They are his masters. Four more years of Obama would be just as satisfactory to me as a Ron Paul win. Either way I win. If Obama wins I get to watch the carnage of the sheeple, the idiocracy who gave BO another four years. It's a schadenfreude thing.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 04:15 | 2021118 Michael
Michael's picture

Iowans really don't have anything to lose voting for Ron Paul.

Congress ends corn ethanol subsidy

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/28/congress-ends-corn-ethanol-subsidy/

 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 05:36 | 2021155 Michael
Michael's picture

You will have so much change with a Ron Paul Presidency, it will make your head spin.

There will be no doubt you have had change after a Ron Paul Presidency.

You can quote me on that

Michael N.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 06:55 | 2021180 BigJim
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Yes, I saw that. I was surprised to see how little effect the announcement had on corn prices.

To all you ZHers, WattsUpWithThat is an essential antidote to AGW hysteria.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 08:50 | 2021254 russki standart
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Agreed.  Thank you for your post. I am now expecting Flakmeister and crew to show up, call you a denier and demand you pay your 'fair' share of the climate debt. By virtue of your birth, you are guilty of the original sin of carbon emission and must pay to Gaia and her great profit ooops, prophet Gore.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:39 | 2021448 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Both corn & copper will easily survive (just as Au & Ag) in secondary markets if TS REALLY HTF...

Privateers will "brew their own" if you know what I mean...

Time to make friends with a hillbilly & biuld yourself a little metal shop in the backyard shed...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 04:45 | 2021131 delacroix
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my bad

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 08:44 | 2021241 russki standart
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economics 1996, good summary. I wish your comments could have some how been posted in advance of the article, saving a good deal of unnecessary albiet rigorous writing. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:04 | 2020584 SilverRhino
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PM's bitchez ... err fuck (got blowtorched in short term)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 20:06 | 2020663 Sudden Debt
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Silver, how it's made

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0dODJGm3dM&sns=em

A very cool discovery channel small docu on how it's made. WOW!!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 23:28 | 2020938 uno
uno's picture

amazing video, so the miners bring all that equipment to the middle of nowhere to extract silver than GIVE IT AWAY because JPM says what the price is.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 07:13 | 2021183 BigJim
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The shit is everywhere! It only costs $5 to get it out of the ground! etc, etc.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 01:35 | 2023266 SilverRhino
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+1000 That was awesome.  Good find. 

5 bucks an ounce my ass ...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:09 | 2020589 Boilermaker
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Are there any reports tomorrow than can be even more glorious than ever expected?  We have to just keep the propoganda machine in 5th gear to keep us this charade.

Seriously...what is it tomorrow?  Any early guesses?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 20:00 | 2020658 slewie the pi-rat
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...friday?

o wait, i know!

JOBS, BiCheZ!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 23:22 | 2020932 ThrivingAdmistC...
ThrivingAdmistCollapse's picture

The government will keep trying to massage every statistic.  The point to convince the people that there isn't an economic collapse happening right now.  I'm pretty sure that one way or another we are going to have a semi-planned economy in the near future.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:19 | 2021267 Pegasus Muse
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This morning on Squawk, CNBC is presenting Attendance Levels at Theme Parks in Central Florida as an indicator of economic recovery.  When joblessness, unemployment compensation, Food Stamp participation, GDP, home sales, homes prices, car sales all let you down, the professional crap peddlers just create new indicators like Theme Park Attendance to baffle viewers with BS. 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:41 | 2021328 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

OT, but related to central planning and I want this high in this thread for the exposure.  Forgive me.

There is a fiscao brewing in the Republican Presidential Primary in the commonwealth of Virginia.  The state republican party has set a high standard for certfication to be on the ballot.  The date for submission of the required 10,000 verified signatures has passed, and only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have passed the test, so only these two names will be on the ballot in the Virginia Repblican Presidential Primary to hbe held on March 6th.

After the fact, RPV announced that anyone who wanted to participate in the taxpayer-financed primary election would first have to sign an oath promising to support the eventual republican nominee in the November election. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/virginia-repu...

"In order to cast their ballots in the GOP nominating contest, Virginians will have to sign a form that says, “I, the undersigned, pledge that I intend to support the nominee of the Republican Party for president,” according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch, which first reported the move.

On Wednesday, the state Board of Elections approved the pledge form, as well as signs that will hang in polling places advising voters of the state party’s policy."

All it takes now if for someone to go to the polls, refuse to sign the pledge, and then be denied the right to vote in a taxpayer-funded election.  Virginia Republican Party makes international news, instant notoreity, just the kind I am sure they want.

I am positively drooling at the prospect.  I am sure that RT would cover such a thing.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:09 | 2020590 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Tyler, you are too gentle. This isn't central planning, this is some criminals, using helping economy as pretext, transfer wealth from the mass to the top earners.

A true central planning would never let this kind of stuff to happen.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:12 | 2020592 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Central planning is anti-democratic dictatorship.  That's about as bad as it gets.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 21:26 | 2020753 economics1996
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You are right about the central planning, except the whole propose is to transfer wealth into a few hands.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 21:42 | 2020766 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

 

This isn't a free market, this is some criminals, using helping economy as pretext, transfer wealth from the mass to the top earners.

A true free market would never let this kind of stuff to happen.

Fixed it for you.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:16 | 2020596 s2man
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You will buy equities, and you will be happy.

   - The Office of Morale Adjustment.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:16 | 2020598 kaiserhoff
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The Jews are going ape shit over Ron Paul.  He must be getting some real traction.

Daniel Henninger, Editorial Director - WSJ - had a sleazy hit piece today.  Dorothy Rabinowitz did a back stab two days ago.They have lost all pretense of balance or sanity, just carrrying water for the Zionists.  This will cost them big time.  I used to have some respect for Paul Gigot, who runs that rag, but not anymore.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 20:13 | 2020672 General Decline
General Decline's picture

If the Zionist do not approve of you, you will not be elected.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 02:30 | 2021089 Shineola
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Let's call these folks by thier proper appellation, Khazars.   They are not decendants of Abraham, neither are they Semitic.  More likely, they decended from the Mongol hordes and "convered" to Judaism, for political reasons, in the 7th century AD.  I don't know how that makes them "chosen", but the real decendants of Abraham probably never left the area called Palestine. 

 

Incoming!!..........

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 08:38 | 2021230 terryfuckwit
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your commander in chief Benji will confirm this  on request

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 04:18 | 2021119 Arkadaba
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He is getting traction especially among the young and that is what is scaring them. Today, I saw a post by one of the most "liberal" (define as you will)  persons I know and it was very positive. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:16 | 2020600 ACP
ACP's picture

Central Planning Bitches, bitchez.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:16 | 2020601 youLilQuantFuker
Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:19 | 2020604 TheAkashicRecord
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The sum of human knowledge is at our fingertips, such a large disconnect between the decentralized nature of information and the centralized nature of power and planning. 

Essentially Hayek's argument, but now has been taken to the nth degree with the internet.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:25 | 2020611 mayhem_korner
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What we are witnessing is a titanic battle between the world as it really is and the one central banks need you to believe it might be (if only you would set aside your own perceptions and self-interest).  The fact that volatility has risen is a clear indication that the central bank-inspired anesthesia is no longer as effective as it was in 2009, or even in the QE 2.0 inspired insanity of 2010.

 

Agree.  Volatility is simply a measure of how reactive the marketplace is to information, irrespective of whether the information is factual.  I like to think of volatility as the "belief spread" - that is, the basis between different views of something's value.  The wider the spread becomes the more volatile the underlying becomes.

With that, this article points to what some refer to as the "reality spread" - the difference between (i) the matrix world's manufactured valuation as concocted by the string-pullers, CBs, paid-for MSM, and the attendant HFT algos that can insta-crash an asset on a mere whiff of hopium, and (ii) real valuations, which are difficult to nail down because they are understood by a dispersed group that cannot easily collaborate to move the markets.  As the reality spread widens, volatility upticks are palpable.  How many times in the past 6-12 months have we seen a major shift in a credit rating, bond yield, commodity price or other indicator that led us to watch very closely the ensuing 48 hours?  That is to me the indication that the pendulum is in fact a wrecking ball scraping some of the matrix walls.

It's not going to settle down anytime soon, because the broken things won't be fixed.  Just the slow but eventual dissipation of the fog around reality for the masses.

My 2 oz.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:26 | 2020612 Sean Fernyhough
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Irving Fisher failed to predict the crash, in fact he advocated against its possibility right through to less than 2 weeks before "Black Monday" in 1929.  As a result he lost a fortune.  So, unlike Bernanke he had significant skin in the game.  And also unlike Bernanke he changed his theories in the light of evidence.

The fact is that the post crash theories of Irving Fisher have largely been ignored by the mainstream.  Almost 90% of the over 1,200 citations of Fisher in academic journals from 1956 were references to his pre-Great Depression works.

So that proposition in the article is wrong.

Bernanke's wet dream economist and supposed expert on the Great Depression is the prize Monetarist idiot Milton Friedman.

Markets have emergent behaviours that cannot be understood by looking at an individual participant in isolation. The fallacy of composition is one aspet of that more general chaacteristic. And, in fact, Adam Smith had far more sense than the article gives him credit for, witness for instance his advocacy (in opposition to Bentham) of a legal limit to the rate of interest that could be charged on a loan on the basis  that "Where the legal rate of interest,on the contrary, is fixed but a very little above the lowest market rate, sober people are universally preferred, as borrowers, to prodigals and projectors... A great part of the capital of the employed with advantage."

So the article is wrong in that respect.

I stopped reading at that point.  Too many mistakes.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:42 | 2020630 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

-Remarks by Ben Bernanke

Irving Fisher (1933) was perhaps the first economist to emphasize the potential connections between violent financial crises, which lead to "fire sales" of assets and falling asset prices, with general declines in aggregate demand and the price level.

-The Uninformed Ben Bernanke

Fiscal Policy
Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices. Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers. A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.

-The Admiring Ben Bernanke

Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

-The Alchemist, Ben Bernanke

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 21:31 | 2020758 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Irving Fisher made a lot of mistakes and in my opinion, never understood money and markets.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 17:40 | 2022564 Sean Fernyhough
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Irving Fisher changed is views when the facts changed - how many economists do that?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 07:30 | 2021187 BigJim
BigJim's picture

In terms of economic thought, Adam Smith was actually several steps backwards in many respects. He advocated the Labour Theory of Value, for instance, which had already been dissected and dismisssed by the Scholastics hundreds of years prior. But because he wrote in English - as opposed to the Latin, Spanish and French of earlier, more advanced economics thinkers - his works were more widely read throughout the Anglo-saxon world, which, undergoing expansion and ascendency, spread his thought far and wide.

It's not up to the government to tell me (or anyone else) how much I can charge when renting my capital out in a voluntary transaction with a borrower. If I'm charging over the market rate, the borrower can find someone else to borrow from at a lower rate. And if he can't find someone else, then he's out of luck - no one wants to risk their capital with him. And almost certainly for good reason.

I suggest you go back and read the rest of the article. You have a lot to learn, grasshopper.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 17:39 | 2022562 Sean Fernyhough
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"It's not up to the government to tell me (or anyone else) how much I can charge when renting my capital out in a voluntary transaction with a borrower. If I'm charging over the market rate, the borrower can find someone else to borrow from at a lower rate. And if he can't find someone else, then he's out of luck - no one wants to risk their capital with him. And almost certainly for good reason."

And from that position you get banks using their sub-prime subsidiaries to maximise loans to people who they know cannot afford to repay precisely because they can be charged a higher rate of interest.  Predatory behaviour.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:35 | 2020621 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is more or less logistical bullshit.  Yank this article.

There is volatility because volume has collapsed and only computers are trading, and they react and over-react to each news item that crosses the wire.

The rest is hand waving.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 21:48 | 2020771 lewy14
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If anyone has any funds with this guy, yank them too.

I willingly pay that cost [of leveraged inverse funds] because I have no concrete idea when another fit of sustained selling will actually take place, but I have more than an inkling that it will.

OFFS. This guy puts a hedge on with no idea what it really costs... no clue how to trade other hedging vehicles... not qualified to run money in any universe. Full stop.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:47 | 2020628 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

All analysis starts with one of the greatest questions ever "it all depends on what the meaning of is...is." Since we all are forever "shooting in the dark" with any analysis...as this and pretty much all before it and probably all after it...shifts to "forecasting" then before we state anything we must ask AND ANSWER "what's going on in the first place." even a cursory reading of this missive begs the question "where is the data?" sure "people have points of view" How is this author espousing anything other than HIS point of view then? For me I stare at a chart of the 10 year treasury and look at it like I'm looking at a Rothko. First off I say (to myself) "gee I'm glad when I gave my two cents the guy in charge ignored me." and then I "go to work"'cuz clearly all the blow horns have been telling me "ignore that 10 year just like we do!" I guess the best explanation I can give at this point of my predicament is "somewhere inside this sell side show boater is an asset manager lurking"--but it takes an enormous amount of patience...and an inner calm...something along the lines of "don't worry, we're not Goldman Sachs. We eat our own cooking. We will not steer your herd into the abyss just so we can have a slab of beef "on the cheap."

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:43 | 2020629 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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...........

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:43 | 2020632 johnjb32
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Listen to Mike Ruppert and Joe Rogan talk about this and so much more:

 

http://www.collapsenet.com/affiliate/idevaffiliate.php?id=154&url=1761

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 20:11 | 2020667 youLilQuantFuker
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Is he crying while Rogan is tripping on medicinal mushrooms?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 20:23 | 2020688 TheAkashicRecord
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Love Rogan's podcast, long time listener

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 19:46 | 2020637 non_anon
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if I'm here, where's Waldo?

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