Chart Of The Day: The IMF's "Downside" Case For Europe And The World
This is the scariest chart out of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report released today. Naturally it was purely included in there to emphasize the IMF's Mutual Assured Destruction point that Europe has to immediately proceed with fiscal easing (something which Germany will not agree to until it is too late, if then), or else this is what happens. And since this is Europe, and no fiscal resolution will come (but many, many, many summits are in store before the world figures this out), this is precisely the sad reality in store for Europe, and thus for the US and China, as 2012 will be the first year since the Second Great Depression in which official statistics will represent a global economic contraction. As for Europe's 4% decline relative to baseline: good luck.
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Depression
I feel depressed just looking at it.
Yes, but I remain amazed by the fact that the market continues to ramp on absolutly no volume. WTF? I think it is still legal to sell, but maybe I am missing something.
An up market on no volume has always been bearish, until now, and only because CNBC has no fucking ability to call a market. Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers. They have no skill with data, and no macro market knowledge. They just sing happy songs and lead the sheep to slaughter.
PS has anyone seen Liesman play "all the roles of the Fed board" this morning? I don't usually recommend watching this shit station, but this one is very commical.
Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers
They're all just momentum jockeys... & there's only one direction, in their world, that momentum flows...
Listen: they've got a product to sell just like anyone else. If this is how they butter their bread..by all means. Obviously "careful what you watch on than tv when looking back"'cuz it does mean to kill you. But they're big boys and girlz and dey "been dere and dun dat and shit." it's not my mo--I don't trade--if I did they are required watching. And you will have made money by doing so...that's why Robo keeps popping in. He's no pauper.
they've got a product to sell just like anyone else
Yeah... just like the pimp & the crack dealer down at the end of the street...
Hey Robo... You officially have a fanbase...
A recession depression or a depression recession. WTF R we in?
A depressed depression.
Could the market be pricing in war?
market optimism based on govt manipulation , hopium and official rumors.
You think you're depressed! Po wittle Georgie Sowos is weally upset. He sees "a period of evil" coming to the world followed by what he hopes is a "New World Order". Oh shucks, says Georgie, economic devastation. What is a poor boy to do?
Soros Warns of Violence:
http://www.infowars.com/soros-warns-of-violent-riots-in-america-financial-collapse-government-clampdown-%e2%80%9csurvival-is-the-most-important-thing%e2%80%9d/
Sorrryass is fomenting this reaction and is it right out of the socialist playbook.
Sounds like he is lurking on ZH... Maybe he's Robo? or MDB? Naw, probably talking his book and totally short everything but PMs.
Soros is Bob Dobalina!
Exactly right. They will tell you what will come to pass so you knew better and are as much to blame for not taking precautions. "Your fault, slave!"
Yeah...right...like Benny wouldn't back door a trillion dollars or so.
Why is the chart going up at the back end?
automatic optimism, of course!
That's when they project that all the politicians will have fled the EZ or been hung from lamp-posts.
So the Mayan apocalypse is a good thing!
I think it's better than the Iranian-Israel one.
"which Germany will not agree to until it is too late"
Shouldn’t the German people, in recompense for their bad behavior in the first half of the last century be willing to sacrifice their sovereignty and their solvency for the greater good of Europe?
And don’t be too quick to forget about that scavenging of the remnants of the Roman Empire after Attila did a number on it a mere millennia and a half ago. A little wergeld for Odacer might be in order here.
The German people should submit to the wisdom of the EU leadership (what's the German word for leader, again?).
Yeah these damn Germans are really against printing. It is almost like they have experienced something like this in the past... like hyperinflation, mass murder and World War.
These Huns need to lighten up... come on it is only paper.... what is the worst that could happen?
When the priests are in charge....
Hot potato...everyone is waiting...until they get off work. Then they hope it all 'changes' while they are 'off the job'.
Just need a few more weekends...for this to seep into the system.
Its like everone is partying on the Costa Concordia...with leadership driving toward the rocks...out of control.
If leadership is at Davos...are there any adults in charge ?
TMose... RE: bankers and lamp posts...
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/US%20Dollar%20Evolution/index.htm
Of course the whole Panic of 1869 was about pushing gold higher and the idea was that when the United States would have to return to the Gold Standard, it would have to accept whatever price it was trading at on the market at that moment in time. James Fisk (1835- 1872) and Jay Gould (1836- 1892) managed to get gold to rally up to $162 and ounce on September 24 th , 1869. This was the financial panic where bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung and they had to send in troops to suppress the panic, which gave rise to the term "Black Friday"."bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung"
It's nice to take a break now and then to wax nostalgic.
Why is the chart going up at the back end?
Wild guess... It troughs in 2013... Whichever "puppet" administration & congress get elected... they renew the Fed's charter (surprise surprise)... As soon as that is accomplished, the DOLLAR gets reset...
Reset...that's like what happens to computers, right?
Frankly... I'd be just fine if it would happen that way...
I'm not exactly fond of it happening by way of 'summit after summit'... If I had an ounce of gold for all the 'summits' that have (and will occur) to fix the problem, I could probably solve the whole problem singlehandedly with a swift donation...
Anyway... the thought of it happening that way makes the Kyle Bass' nickle collection somewhat interesting...
The summits are so the technocrats can viit their favorite hookers in every city before they can no longer be seen in public without rotten tomatoes being thrown at them.
I knew my tax dollars were going to some worthy cause now that we've stopped funding Solyndra...
Reset! Just like when I was a kid playing an Atari game, and I died too quickly.
Bullishness..it's alredy priced in because ALL of this has already been pre-determined.
So it's priced in because it was priced in from the beginning. Brilliant. Thank you central planning! What would we do without it? Not eat slurpees for breakfast, that's for sure!
World economic collapse already priced in back to near record bubble high tops in equities etc.....this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.
-Future Famous Historian, 2020
From the book, "Hindsight"
this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.
Ha!...The only thing future generations will know about us will be the funny faces carved into Mt. Rushmore...
The face of "Crazy Horse", will be the only one who looked like he knew WTF he was doing...
And as we will find out after the crash Geronimo was the only one that knew what the fuck he was doing...
-Crazy Horse
"Jump you fuckers"
-Geronimo!
I can imagine the kids in the classroom laughing their arses off that we use to trade with coloured pieces of paper. I mean come on your 5 storey mansion and top of the range sports car for a piece of paper, give me a break!
Zombie bounce...its what happens when all the negative news gets priced in.
They need to make "revisions"...it's what gives them a job
Priced in.
Bullish, buy buy buy
This forecast just like 99 percent of all long term forecasts is nothing but a bunch of horse manure. And I don't want to insult any horses by saying this. Always remember: Economists were invented to make meteorologists look good.
horse manure: good fertilizer
The reality is all we've been doing is staving off a total collapse of economies and currencies by printing massive amounts of currencies to make it appear its propped up a bit longer...only a fool cant see we're headed into a major world war to make WW2 look like nothing.
Well... I predict that WW3 will be much shorter than the last one... About 30 minutes should get er done.
Er... 26 minutes... (you forgot to slot in 2 two minute commercial breaks)...
With a World War?
Remain Calm...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Classic.
Not only is it "scary", it is dead wrong. Real GDP has never started going up, sorry paper-pushing does not count. Know the real value of your labor? You fucking better.
Negative growth until 2016? Ok, ok I'll go 90% long instead of 100%. I'm starting to wonder what's the point of saving money if there is no good place to invest it?
Invest at the local gun store and coin shop.
And liquer store.
Time to rebalance at least, this rally has been fun. For those keeping track at home, ECRI says recession, IMF says depression and yet equities keep ramping skyward.
Timmah!
Equities ramped skyward all through '87 too with the Fed raising rates every month. Then came Oct. and ka-boom.
So when GDP goes down by 4%, what happens to the banks that are leveraged 20:1? Do they stand to lose 80% of their assets?
Their models clearly fail to simulate a decline of 4% properly. Things would become massivly instable and nonlinear.
You assume they mark to market.
Print to infinity bitchez...
But...but...but.. How could that be. The banks have been stress tested a couple of times. I heard it on BlabMainBoomCN. What could possibly go wrong?
They are throwing out all they can to get tham to print.
Even if they did, then what?
It won't do any good without further integration and a Euro bond. But that will just kick it down the road further.
But but but, every bank eCONomist in Europe is cheerleading today how "we have turned the corner". LTRO apparently has been transforming deficits to surpluses, payables to receivables, contraction to neo classical style eternal growth and what not! And every eurostooge have expressed their CONfidence over everything now that the latest eurostooge meeting has ended. Glad we have EU-summit just behind the corner so there is more bullish "propaganda-LTRO" waiting.
What does IMF means? Does it mean I M F*, if I am in Europe??
The market "jumped the shark" long ago. When stock trading went mainstream it had to be presented as "entertainment" and now Mr. Retail gets his advice from tools like Jim Cramer. Who in their right mind takes stock advice from this guy or any TV network? Especially one that pushes a button that says "Buy! Buy! Buy!". This country is run by idiots and the whole 99% vs. 1% concept is really = 99% are idiots.
SPG all time high again. Are people still shopping in the malls?
Not in the malls around here... Unless you bring your sawzall you can't get through the plywood.
They have to lower rates that simple
Zombie bounce.
Wait...percentage deviation from baseline...so the absolute numbers for their downside case are quite a bit higher than what's being shown in the chart, right?
What is to bring the world average above Europe? Is it the U.S.? China? Brazil? India? What?
Stocks once again shaking off Europe with retailers like COH leading the charge, up 6%, within a buck of world record highs.
Where's the recession?
Oh, I forgot.
It is in gold mining stocks.
LOL....
Words of wisdom from the RoboDouche!
Robo... Make up my mind. Earlier today you were a heart specialist, now you're back to touting stocks. Pick a field and stick with it...maybe sanitation specialist?
He's a heart specialist who drums up business by touting bad stocks thereby inducing cardiac events. God, do I have to explain everything?
With Robo in the room, I'm long meatheads...
Bankers pick the winners and losers.
In 1913, the international bankers led by Paul Warburg created a “Federal Reserve System” that provided supra-national moneychangers a paper medium, by fiat, to exchange for the world’s assets and to finance a century of violent war and social upheaval. By a perversion of order, a select few who surrender nothing have become the masters of world production and distribution – of a new world order. Their "solutions," of course, are ones that have been created by these same elites: the IMF, BIS, World Bank, International Criminal Court, World Health Organization, the UN...
As Nathan Martin said today regarding ZH’s PetroPlus, Largest European Refiner by Capacity, Files Bankruptcy, "considering the timing of the oil embargo just announced, one would think Governments in Europe would have ‘encouraged’ the banks who had cut off the credit lines of PetroPlus ( which just happens to be the largest refiner by capacity in Europe ), to find a way to resolve these credit line issues - after all , didn't the Banks receive about 600 billion in a three year LTRO and isn't lending actually what Banks are supposed to do ? Well, i guess the real name of the game still remains deleveraging and seizing assets if you're a bankster!
“Of course, just looking at the European Banks involved -- BNP Paribas , Soc Gen , Natixis , Credit Suisse , Deutsche Bank , Rabobank, ING and Comerzbank – one understands the need to delever and seize assets as said banks are troubled, to be kind ! So at the end of the day, what's good for the banksters is good for Europe, unless one works at the refineries closed or wants to buy liters of gasoline in Europe!”
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/
Professor Werner Sombart, in his work Die Juden und das Wirtschaftsleben, sums up today’s situation as he did Europe’s in 1911:
“If we want to make clear in one sentence the direction in which the modern political economy is moving we can say: the stock-exchange agents of the banks are becoming an ever-increasing measure the dictators of economic life. All economic happenings are more and more subordinate to the decisions of finance. The question whether a new industrial undertaking is to spring up or an existing one to be developed; whether the owner of a shop or a store is to get the means to extend his business, all these questions are decided in the offices of Banks and Bankers.
“In just the same way the sale of products is becoming, in an ever greater degree, a problem of finance. Our greatest industries are indeed already just as much financial associations as industrial undertakings.”
Sombart recognized in 1911 that this perversion of order, in which financial, industrial and commercial interests internationally organized and merged into powerful groups with “a monopoly in the creation of national credit,” had only to be left free in order for these men “to dominate the earth.”
This charts clearly shows that GREECE is the problematic "bad child" of the known universe.
Go check those two and keep them for later use. READ THIS ONE !
Austerity and Anarchy : Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe 1919-2008
http://www.scribd.com/doc/77155458/Austerity-and-Anarchy-in-Europe-1919-...
After BLOOD the genious saviors come to seize the future of mankind. And thats not a fiction unfortunatelly.
PP
As a Geman I rather take -5% GDP worldwide than guaranteeing for the PIFGIS with 2 about 2 yearly tax bills...
Recession here we come. Screw the PIIGS!l
Hey cousin, we're not talking about ~-5% GDP worldwide. We're talking about complete systemic collapse. Why else do you think Germany is even bothering with this bullshit?
Screw the PIIGS, indeed. Unfortunately for you and others who've not realized, we're all pigs.
So what? We need cure at some point in time. No cure without pain. The sooner this system will collaps the better & cheaper.