Chart Of The Day: The IMF's "Downside" Case For Europe And The World

Tyler Durden's picture


This is the scariest chart out of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report released today. Naturally it was purely included in there to emphasize the IMF's Mutual Assured Destruction point that Europe has to immediately proceed with fiscal easing (something which Germany will not agree to until it is too late, if then), or else this is what happens. And since this is Europe, and no fiscal resolution will come (but many, many, many summits are in store before the world figures this out), this is precisely the sad reality in store for Europe, and thus for the US and China, as 2012 will be the first year since the Second Great Depression in which official statistics will represent a global economic contraction. As for Europe's 4% decline relative to baseline: good luck.

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Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092504 Jason T
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Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092513 JenkinsLane
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I feel depressed just looking at it.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092530 LawsofPhysics
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Yes, but I remain amazed by the fact that the market continues to ramp on absolutly no volume.  WTF?  I think it is still legal to sell, but maybe I am missing something.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:56 | 2092546 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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An up market on no volume has always been bearish, until now, and only because CNBC has no fucking ability to call a market.  Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers.  They have no skill with data, and no macro market knowledge.  They just sing happy songs and lead the sheep to slaughter.

PS has anyone seen Liesman play "all the roles of the Fed board" this morning?  I don't usually recommend watching this shit station, but this one is very commical.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:14 | 2092623 francis_sawyer
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Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers

They're all just momentum jockeys... & there's only one direction, in their world, that momentum flows...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:29 | 2092720 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Listen: they've got a product to sell just like anyone else. If this is how they butter their all means. Obviously "careful what you watch on than tv when looking back"'cuz it does mean to kill you. But they're big boys and girlz and dey "been dere and dun dat and shit." it's not my mo--I don't trade--if I did they are required watching. And you will have made money by doing so...that's why Robo keeps popping in. He's no pauper.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:55 | 2092865 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

they've got a product to sell just like anyone else

Yeah... just like the pimp & the crack dealer down at the end of the street...

Hey Robo... You officially have a fanbase...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:15 | 2092625 The Big Ching-aso
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A recession depression or a depression recession.   WTF R we in?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:19 | 2092654 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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A depressed depression.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:03 | 2093150 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Could the market be pricing in war? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:55 | 2092856 satan2liberals
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market optimism based on govt manipulation , hopium and official rumors.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092531 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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You think you're depressed!  Po wittle Georgie Sowos is weally upset.  He sees "a period of evil" coming to the world followed by what he hopes is a "New World Order".  Oh shucks, says Georgie, economic devastation.  What is a poor boy to do?

Soros Warns of Violence:

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:05 | 2092581 Everybodys All ...
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Sorrryass is fomenting this reaction and is it right out of the socialist playbook.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092593 Captain Kink
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Sounds like he is lurking on ZH... Maybe he's Robo?  or MDB?  Naw, probably talking his book and totally short everything but PMs.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2092650 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Soros is Bob Dobalina!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:10 | 2092604 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Exactly right.  They will tell you what will come to pass so you knew better and are as much to blame for not taking precautions.  "Your fault, slave!"

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:56 | 2092552 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture Benny wouldn't back door a trillion dollars or so.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092506 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why is the chart going up at the back end? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092517 achmachat
achmachat's picture

automatic optimism, of course!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:49 | 2092526 tmosley
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That's when they project that all the politicians will have fled the EZ or been hung from lamp-posts.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092536 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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So the Mayan apocalypse is a good thing!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2092643 The Big Ching-aso
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I think it's better than the Iranian-Israel one.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:25 | 2092699 Manthong
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"which Germany will not agree to until it is too late"

Shouldn’t the German people, in recompense for their bad behavior in the first half of the last century be willing to sacrifice their sovereignty and their solvency for the greater good of Europe?

And don’t be too quick to forget about that scavenging of the remnants of the Roman Empire after Attila did a number on it a mere millennia and a half ago. A little wergeld for Odacer might be in order here.

The German people should submit to the wisdom of the EU leadership (what's the German word for leader, again?).


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:57 | 2093385 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Yeah these damn Germans are really against printing. It is almost like they have experienced something like this in the past... like hyperinflation, mass murder and World War.

These Huns need to lighten up... come on it is only paper.... what is the worst that could happen?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:31 | 2092733 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When the priests are in charge....

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:08 | 2092929 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Hot potato...everyone is waiting...until they get off work.  Then they hope it all 'changes' while they are 'off the job'.

Just need a few more weekends...for this to seep into the system.

Its like everone is partying on the Costa Concordia...with leadership driving toward the rocks...out of control.

If leadership is at Davos...are there any adults in charge ?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:21 | 2092661 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

TMose... RE: bankers and lamp posts...

Of course the whole Panic of 1869 was about pushing gold higher and the idea was that when the United States would have to return to the Gold Standard, it would have to accept whatever price it was trading at on the market at that moment in time. James Fisk (1835- 1872) and Jay Gould (1836- 1892) managed to get gold to rally up to $162 and ounce on September 24 th , 1869. This was the financial panic where bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung and they had to send in troops to suppress the panic, which gave rise to the term "Black Friday".
Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:42 | 2092795 Manthong
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"bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung"

It's nice to take a break now and then to wax nostalgic.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:52 | 2092538 francis_sawyer
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Why is the chart going up at the back end?

Wild guess... It troughs in 2013... Whichever "puppet" administration & congress get elected... they renew the Fed's charter (surprise surprise)... As soon as that is accomplished, the DOLLAR gets reset...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:54 | 2092549 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Reset...that's like what happens to computers, right?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:07 | 2092584 francis_sawyer
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Frankly... I'd be just fine if it would happen that way...

I'm not exactly fond of it happening by way of 'summit after summit'... If I had an ounce of gold for all the 'summits' that have (and will occur) to fix the problem, I could probably solve the whole problem singlehandedly with a swift donation...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092596 francis_sawyer
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Anyway... the thought of it happening that way makes the Kyle Bass' nickle collection somewhat interesting...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:16 | 2092640 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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The summits are so the technocrats can viit their favorite hookers in every city before they can no longer be seen in public without rotten tomatoes being thrown at them.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:32 | 2092734 francis_sawyer
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I knew my tax dollars were going to some worthy cause now that we've stopped funding Solyndra...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092592 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Reset! Just like when I was a kid playing an Atari game, and I died too quickly.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:57 | 2092558 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture's alredy priced in because ALL of this has already been pre-determined.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:02 | 2092569 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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So it's priced in because it was priced in from the beginning.  Brilliant.  Thank you central planning!  What would we do without it?  Not eat slurpees for breakfast, that's for sure!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:10 | 2092600 SheepDog-One
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World economic collapse already priced in back to near record bubble high tops in equities etc.....this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:14 | 2092630 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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The economy was collapsing, and try as they might, the policy makers only exaserbated the problem.  Yet people continued to believe in the government they had not elected due to fraud and bribes from corporations.  Only a few dozen homeless people in each city made any noise, and those movements never gained any traction.  We would like to note here there was a blog called "Zero Hedge" that did well to predict the coming Shitpacalypse, but it appeared to be only mainstream as far as trading ideas went.  It's culture never fully caught on to the status quo....

-Future Famous Historian, 2020

From the book, "Hindsight"

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:26 | 2092663 francis_sawyer
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this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.

Ha!...The only thing future generations will know about us will be the funny faces carved into Mt. Rushmore...

The face of "Crazy Horse", will be the only one who looked like he knew WTF he was doing...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:28 | 2092718 Snidley Whipsnae
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And as we will find out after the crash Geronimo was the only one that knew what the fuck he was doing...


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:53 | 2092848 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Today is as good as any to die.

-Crazy Horse

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:58 | 2092872 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Jump you fuckers"


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:34 | 2092755 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I can imagine the kids in the classroom laughing their arses off that we use to trade with coloured pieces of paper. I mean come on your 5 storey mansion and top of the range sports car for a piece of paper, give me a break!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:12 | 2092612 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Zombie bounce...its what happens when all the negative news gets priced in.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:20 | 2092668 mirac
mirac's picture

They need to make "revisions"'s what gives them a job

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:45 | 2092507 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Priced in. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092509 PEanal_yst
PEanal_yst's picture

Bullish, buy buy buy

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092510 The Count
The Count's picture

This forecast just like 99 percent of all long term forecasts is nothing but a bunch of horse manure. And I don't want to insult any horses by saying this. Always remember: Economists were invented to make meteorologists look good. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:48 | 2092522 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

horse manure: good fertilizer

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