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Chart Of The Day: The IMF's "Downside" Case For Europe And The World

Tyler Durden's picture


This is the scariest chart out of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report released today. Naturally it was purely included in there to emphasize the IMF's Mutual Assured Destruction point that Europe has to immediately proceed with fiscal easing (something which Germany will not agree to until it is too late, if then), or else this is what happens. And since this is Europe, and no fiscal resolution will come (but many, many, many summits are in store before the world figures this out), this is precisely the sad reality in store for Europe, and thus for the US and China, as 2012 will be the first year since the Second Great Depression in which official statistics will represent a global economic contraction. As for Europe's 4% decline relative to baseline: good luck.


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Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092504 Jason T
Jason T's picture


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092513 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I feel depressed just looking at it.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092530 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but I remain amazed by the fact that the market continues to ramp on absolutly no volume.  WTF?  I think it is still legal to sell, but maybe I am missing something.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:56 | 2092546 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

An up market on no volume has always been bearish, until now, and only because CNBC has no fucking ability to call a market.  Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers.  They have no skill with data, and no macro market knowledge.  They just sing happy songs and lead the sheep to slaughter.

PS has anyone seen Liesman play "all the roles of the Fed board" this morning?  I don't usually recommend watching this shit station, but this one is very commical.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:14 | 2092623 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Not Cramer, not Greenberg, not any of those boot lickers

They're all just momentum jockeys... & there's only one direction, in their world, that momentum flows...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:29 | 2092720 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Listen: they've got a product to sell just like anyone else. If this is how they butter their all means. Obviously "careful what you watch on than tv when looking back"'cuz it does mean to kill you. But they're big boys and girlz and dey "been dere and dun dat and shit." it's not my mo--I don't trade--if I did they are required watching. And you will have made money by doing so...that's why Robo keeps popping in. He's no pauper.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:55 | 2092865 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

they've got a product to sell just like anyone else

Yeah... just like the pimp & the crack dealer down at the end of the street...

Hey Robo... You officially have a fanbase...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:15 | 2092625 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



A recession depression or a depression recession.   WTF R we in?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:19 | 2092654 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

A depressed depression.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:03 | 2093150 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Could the market be pricing in war? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:55 | 2092856 satan2liberals
satan2liberals's picture

market optimism based on govt manipulation , hopium and official rumors.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092531 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You think you're depressed!  Po wittle Georgie Sowos is weally upset.  He sees "a period of evil" coming to the world followed by what he hopes is a "New World Order".  Oh shucks, says Georgie, economic devastation.  What is a poor boy to do?

Soros Warns of Violence:

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:05 | 2092581 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Sorrryass is fomenting this reaction and is it right out of the socialist playbook.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092593 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Sounds like he is lurking on ZH... Maybe he's Robo?  or MDB?  Naw, probably talking his book and totally short everything but PMs.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2092650 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Soros is Bob Dobalina!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:10 | 2092604 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Exactly right.  They will tell you what will come to pass so you knew better and are as much to blame for not taking precautions.  "Your fault, slave!"

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:56 | 2092552 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture Benny wouldn't back door a trillion dollars or so.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092506 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why is the chart going up at the back end? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092517 achmachat
achmachat's picture

automatic optimism, of course!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:49 | 2092526 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's when they project that all the politicians will have fled the EZ or been hung from lamp-posts.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092536 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So the Mayan apocalypse is a good thing!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2092643 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



I think it's better than the Iranian-Israel one.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:25 | 2092699 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"which Germany will not agree to until it is too late"

Shouldn’t the German people, in recompense for their bad behavior in the first half of the last century be willing to sacrifice their sovereignty and their solvency for the greater good of Europe?

And don’t be too quick to forget about that scavenging of the remnants of the Roman Empire after Attila did a number on it a mere millennia and a half ago. A little wergeld for Odacer might be in order here.

The German people should submit to the wisdom of the EU leadership (what's the German word for leader, again?).


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:57 | 2093385 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Yeah these damn Germans are really against printing. It is almost like they have experienced something like this in the past... like hyperinflation, mass murder and World War.

These Huns need to lighten up... come on it is only paper.... what is the worst that could happen?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:31 | 2092733 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When the priests are in charge....

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:08 | 2092929 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Hot potato...everyone is waiting...until they get off work.  Then they hope it all 'changes' while they are 'off the job'.

Just need a few more weekends...for this to seep into the system.

Its like everone is partying on the Costa Concordia...with leadership driving toward the rocks...out of control.

If leadership is at Davos...are there any adults in charge ?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:21 | 2092661 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

TMose... RE: bankers and lamp posts...

Of course the whole Panic of 1869 was about pushing gold higher and the idea was that when the United States would have to return to the Gold Standard, it would have to accept whatever price it was trading at on the market at that moment in time. James Fisk (1835- 1872) and Jay Gould (1836- 1892) managed to get gold to rally up to $162 and ounce on September 24 th , 1869. This was the financial panic where bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung and they had to send in troops to suppress the panic, which gave rise to the term "Black Friday".
Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:42 | 2092795 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"bankers were being dragged out to the streets and hung"

It's nice to take a break now and then to wax nostalgic.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:52 | 2092538 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Why is the chart going up at the back end?

Wild guess... It troughs in 2013... Whichever "puppet" administration & congress get elected... they renew the Fed's charter (surprise surprise)... As soon as that is accomplished, the DOLLAR gets reset...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:54 | 2092549 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Reset...that's like what happens to computers, right?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:07 | 2092584 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Frankly... I'd be just fine if it would happen that way...

I'm not exactly fond of it happening by way of 'summit after summit'... If I had an ounce of gold for all the 'summits' that have (and will occur) to fix the problem, I could probably solve the whole problem singlehandedly with a swift donation...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092596 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Anyway... the thought of it happening that way makes the Kyle Bass' nickle collection somewhat interesting...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:16 | 2092640 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The summits are so the technocrats can viit their favorite hookers in every city before they can no longer be seen in public without rotten tomatoes being thrown at them.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:32 | 2092734 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I knew my tax dollars were going to some worthy cause now that we've stopped funding Solyndra...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092592 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Reset! Just like when I was a kid playing an Atari game, and I died too quickly.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:57 | 2092558 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture's alredy priced in because ALL of this has already been pre-determined.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:02 | 2092569 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So it's priced in because it was priced in from the beginning.  Brilliant.  Thank you central planning!  What would we do without it?  Not eat slurpees for breakfast, that's for sure!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:10 | 2092600 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

World economic collapse already priced in back to near record bubble high tops in equities etc.....this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:14 | 2092630 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The economy was collapsing, and try as they might, the policy makers only exaserbated the problem.  Yet people continued to believe in the government they had not elected due to fraud and bribes from corporations.  Only a few dozen homeless people in each city made any noise, and those movements never gained any traction.  We would like to note here there was a blog called "Zero Hedge" that did well to predict the coming Shitpacalypse, but it appeared to be only mainstream as far as trading ideas went.  It's culture never fully caught on to the status quo....

-Future Famous Historian, 2020

From the book, "Hindsight"

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:26 | 2092663 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

this will go down as the most bizarre period ever in human history, will be studied for centuries. That is if we somehow make it out of this.

Ha!...The only thing future generations will know about us will be the funny faces carved into Mt. Rushmore...

The face of "Crazy Horse", will be the only one who looked like he knew WTF he was doing...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:28 | 2092718 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

And as we will find out after the crash Geronimo was the only one that knew what the fuck he was doing...


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:53 | 2092848 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Today is as good as any to die.

-Crazy Horse

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:58 | 2092872 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Jump you fuckers"


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:34 | 2092755 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I can imagine the kids in the classroom laughing their arses off that we use to trade with coloured pieces of paper. I mean come on your 5 storey mansion and top of the range sports car for a piece of paper, give me a break!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:12 | 2092612 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Zombie bounce...its what happens when all the negative news gets priced in.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:20 | 2092668 mirac
mirac's picture

They need to make "revisions"'s what gives them a job

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:45 | 2092507 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Priced in. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092509 PEanal_yst
PEanal_yst's picture

Bullish, buy buy buy

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2092510 The Count
The Count's picture

This forecast just like 99 percent of all long term forecasts is nothing but a bunch of horse manure. And I don't want to insult any horses by saying this. Always remember: Economists were invented to make meteorologists look good. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:48 | 2092522 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

horse manure: good fertilizer

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092533 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The reality is all we've been doing is staving off a total collapse of economies and currencies by printing massive amounts of currencies to make it appear its propped up a bit longer...only a fool cant see we're headed into a major world war to make WW2 look like nothing.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:30 | 2092726 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Well... I predict that WW3 will be much shorter than the last one... About 30 minutes should get er done.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:00 | 2092887 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Er... 26 minutes... (you forgot to slot in 2 two minute commercial breaks)...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092511 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

With a World War?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092515 sdmjake
Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:44 | 2092808 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2092516 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not only is it "scary", it is dead wrong.  Real GDP has never started going up, sorry paper-pushing does not count.  Know the real value of your labor?  You fucking better.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2092535 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Negative growth until 2016?  Ok, ok I'll go 90% long instead of 100%.  I'm starting to wonder what's the point of saving money if there is no good place to invest it?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:53 | 2092543 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Invest at the local gun store and coin shop.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:59 | 2092560 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And liquer store.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:33 | 2092576 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Time to rebalance at least, this rally has been fun.  For those keeping track at home, ECRI says recession, IMF says depression and yet equities keep ramping skyward.  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:54 | 2092853 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:14 | 2093198 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Equities ramped skyward all through '87 too with the Fed raising rates every month.  Then came Oct. and ka-boom.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:53 | 2092544 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

So when GDP goes down by 4%, what happens to the banks that are leveraged 20:1?  Do they stand to lose 80% of their assets? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:59 | 2092561 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Their models clearly fail to simulate a decline of 4% properly. Things would become massivly instable and nonlinear.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:59 | 2092562 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You assume they mark to market.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:21 | 2092672 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Print to infinity bitchez...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:34 | 2092749 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

But...but...but.. How could that be. The banks have been stress tested a couple of times. I heard it on BlabMainBoomCN. What could possibly go wrong?


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:00 | 2092567 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are throwing out all they can to get tham to print.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:11 | 2092609 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Even if they did, then what?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:23 | 2092690 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It won't do any good without further integration and a Euro bond. But that will just kick it down the road further. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:00 | 2092568 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

But but but, every bank eCONomist in Europe is cheerleading today how "we have turned the corner". LTRO apparently has been transforming deficits to surpluses, payables to receivables, contraction to neo classical style eternal growth and what not! And every eurostooge have expressed their CONfidence over everything now that the latest eurostooge meeting has ended. Glad we have EU-summit just behind the corner so there is more bullish "propaganda-LTRO" waiting.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:06 | 2092582 dollarcoaster
dollarcoaster's picture

What does IMF means? Does it mean I M F*, if I am in Europe??

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:07 | 2092583 ratpack1968
ratpack1968's picture

The market "jumped the shark" long ago. When stock trading went mainstream it had to be presented as "entertainment" and now Mr. Retail gets his advice from tools like Jim Cramer.  Who in their right mind takes stock advice from this guy or any TV network? Especially one that pushes a button that says "Buy! Buy! Buy!".  This country is run by idiots and the whole 99% vs. 1% concept is really = 99% are idiots.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:08 | 2092587 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

SPG all time high again. Are people still shopping in the malls?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:36 | 2092764 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Not in the malls around here... Unless you bring your sawzall you can't get through the plywood.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2092588 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

They have to lower rates that simple

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:10 | 2092606 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Zombie bounce.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:11 | 2092610 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Wait...percentage deviation from the absolute numbers for their downside case are quite a bit higher than what's being shown in the chart, right?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:12 | 2092615 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

What is to bring the world average above Europe? Is it the U.S.? China? Brazil? India? What?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:14 | 2092622 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Stocks once again shaking off Europe with retailers like COH leading the charge, up 6%, within a buck of world record highs.


Where's the recession?

Oh, I forgot.

It is in gold mining stocks.


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2092652 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Words of wisdom from the RoboDouche!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:39 | 2092780 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Robo... Make up my mind. Earlier today you were a heart specialist, now you're back to touting stocks. Pick a field and stick with it...maybe sanitation specialist?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:48 | 2092835 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

He's a heart specialist who drums up business by touting bad stocks thereby inducing cardiac events. God, do I have to explain everything?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:03 | 2092901 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

With Robo in the room, I'm long meatheads...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:22 | 2092676 JR
JR's picture

Bankers pick the winners and losers.

In 1913, the international bankers led by Paul Warburg created a “Federal Reserve System” that provided supra-national moneychangers a paper medium, by fiat, to exchange for the world’s assets and to finance a century of violent war and social upheaval. By a perversion of order, a select few who surrender nothing have become the masters of world production and distribution – of a new world order. Their "solutions," of course, are ones that have been created by these same elites: the IMF, BIS, World Bank, International Criminal Court, World Health Organization, the UN...

As Nathan Martin said today regarding  ZH’s PetroPlus, Largest European Refiner by Capacity, Files Bankruptcy, "considering the timing of the oil embargo just announced, one would think Governments in Europe would have ‘encouraged’ the banks who had cut off the credit lines of PetroPlus ( which just happens to be the largest refiner by capacity in Europe ), to find a way to resolve these credit line issues - after all , didn't the Banks receive about 600 billion in a three year LTRO and isn't lending actually what Banks are supposed to do ? Well, i guess the real name of the game still remains deleveraging and seizing assets if you're a bankster!

“Of course, just looking at the European Banks involved -- BNP Paribas , Soc Gen , Natixis , Credit Suisse , Deutsche Bank , Rabobank, ING and Comerzbank – one understands the need to delever and seize assets as said banks are troubled, to be kind ! So at the end of the day, what's good for the banksters is good for Europe, unless one works at the refineries closed or wants to buy liters of gasoline in Europe!”

Professor Werner Sombart, in his work Die Juden und das Wirtschaftsleben, sums up today’s situation as he did Europe’s in 1911:

If we want to make clear in one sentence the direction in which the modern political economy is moving we can say: the stock-exchange agents of the banks are becoming an ever-increasing measure the dictators of economic life. All economic happenings are more and more subordinate to the decisions of finance. The question whether a new industrial undertaking is to spring up or an existing one to be developed; whether the owner of a shop or a store is to get the means to extend his business, all these questions are decided in the offices of Banks and Bankers.

“In just the same way the sale of products is becoming, in an ever greater degree, a problem of finance. Our greatest industries are indeed already just as much financial associations as industrial undertakings.”

Sombart recognized in 1911 that this perversion of order, in which financial, industrial and commercial interests internationally organized and merged into powerful groups with “a monopoly in the creation of national credit,” had only to be left free in order for these men “to dominate the earth.”

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:23 | 2092684 PORTA PORTA
PORTA PORTA's picture

This charts clearly shows that GREECE is the problematic "bad child" of the known universe.

Go check those two and keep them for later use. READ THIS ONE !

Austerity and Anarchy : Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe 1919-2008


After BLOOD the genious saviors come to seize the future of mankind. And thats not a fiction unfortunatelly.


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:28 | 2092714 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

As a Geman I rather take -5% GDP worldwide than guaranteeing for the PIFGIS with 2 about 2 yearly tax bills...

Recession here we come. Screw the PIIGS!l

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:47 | 2092821 Chump
Chump's picture

Hey cousin, we're not talking about ~-5% GDP worldwide.  We're talking about complete systemic collapse.  Why else do you think Germany is even bothering with this bullshit?

Screw the PIIGS, indeed.  Unfortunately for you and others who've not realized, we're all pigs.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 15:18 | 2093505 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

So what? We need cure at some point in time. No cure without pain. The sooner this system will collaps the better & cheaper.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 16:37 | 2093816 Chump
Chump's picture

Agreed, completely, I was just correcting the 5% figure.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:04 | 2092895 koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

why not -20% GDP?  its only the wankers that voted for these c.nts that are going to suffer.


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:37 | 2092753 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

 I am not a financial analyst and those who claim to be are simply re-posters of others analyzations. I have traveled beyond the confines of the U.S. and can make my own deductions of the world. Personally I could care less if the markets go up or down. Wall Street among others are euphoric only for the reason of greed. As we all know, greed breeds only more greed "an addiction". As an unbiased individual "no blinders needed" I truly live my life like my title "withnmeans".  If one does this, you not only have a clear conscience, no debt, but not so concerned about the markets.

 Everybody can point fingers of blame, the Huddle masses blame the Banks and Government, the Banks blame the Masses and the Government, and the Government "well you can come up with you own conclusion".

 Truth be told, they are all to blame. The Masses over spent and they still do, they didn't learn anything from the housing crash, Lehman, etc... The Banks focused on greed only, which they are in the business to make money, but when is it TOO MUCH "we are now finding out". Then there is Government, Hmmm, I don't have the time or the will to elaborate now, you can fill in the blank "here".

 We can write, talk, draw conclusions, etc. Where does it get anyone, as the Great Restructuring begins, the only thing we can do is work hard, save, pray to your God or not, and find time for family and friends, then you can live a good life and see that its not all about MONEY.  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:52 | 2092847 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

"save". Please elaborate as some may consider this to be in fiat paper trash cash. 

Dont trust a banker. Save yourself (pun intended). Buy physical Gold & Silver!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:46 | 2092813 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

DSGE models baby!!!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:48 | 2092824 flight77
flight77's picture

For Gourmets
Here the brand new EMS numbers: Enjoy!

Country                                              Shares                         Money


Königreich Belgien                                243 397                    24 339 700 000

Bundesrepublik Deutschland               1900 248                  190 024 800 000

Republik Estland                                      13 020                      1 302 000 000

Republik Irland                                      111 454                    11 145 400 000

Hellenische Republik                             197 169                    19 716 900 000

Königreich Spanien                                833 259                   83 325 900 000

Französische Republik                      1 427 013                   142 701 300 000

Italienische Republik                        1 253 959                   125 395 900 000

Republik Zypern                                      13 734                      1 373 400 000

Großherzogtum Luxemburg                    17 528                       1 752 800 000

Republik Malta                                          5 117                         511 700 000

Königreich der Niederlande                  400 190                     40 019 000 000

Republik Österreich                              194 838                    19 483 800 000

Portugiesische Republik                       175 644                     17 564 400 000

Republik Slowenien                                29 932                      2 993 200 000

Slowakische Republik                             57 680                      5 768 000 000
Republik Finnland                                125 818                    12 581 800 000

Gesamt                                          7 000 000                       700 000 000 000


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:49 | 2092829 flight77
flight77's picture

Country                                              Shares                         Money


Königreich Belgien                                243 397                    24 339 700 000

Bundesrepublik Deutschland               1900 248                  190 024 800 000

Republik Estland                                      13 020                      1 302 000 000

Republik Irland                                      111 454                    11 145 400 000

Hellenische Republik                             197 169                    19 716 900 000

Königreich Spanien                                833 259                   83 325 900 000

Französische Republik                      1 427 013                   142 701 300 000

Italienische Republik                        1 253 959                   125 395 900 000

Republik Zypern                                      13 734                      1 373 400 000

Großherzogtum Luxemburg                    17 528                       1 752 800 000

Republik Malta                                          5 117                         511 700 000

Königreich der Niederlande                  400 190                     40 019 000 000

Republik Österreich                              194 838                    19 483 800 000

Portugiesische Republik                       175 644                     17 564 400 000

Republik Slowenien                                29 932                      2 993 200 000

Slowakische Republik                             57 680                      5 768 000 000
Republik Finnland                                125 818                    12 581 800 000

Gesamt                                          7 000 000                       700 000 000 000

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:51 | 2092838 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

No amount of financial easing is ever enough. No nation or currency can Ponzi it's way to prosperity. Either the world is running out of rich, gullible people, or they're all going broke.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:06 | 2092913 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Depression indeed.

And can someone explain to me how in the world 1000s of job cuts are announced every single day and have been for quite sometime, but yet everything is rosy in the US?

When oh when is this farce going to catch up to reality?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:27 | 2093244 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And when will they finally dignify this mess by calling it the Depression that it is?  I guess not while they still want to be reelected.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:11 | 2092938 HD
HD's picture

I assume the perma bulls just see a giant smile...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:24 | 2092988 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture


I hate to break it to the incredible Tyler Durden and the IMF and their more-or-less charming 'Bossette' Christine Lagarde:

yr chart understates the problem. Europe is looking at a Cuba-like -20% cut in GDP right away when Greece exits taking eurobanking with it.

Like the Soviet Union before it died, Europe will be trading its gold for food. When the gold runs out the Europeans will starve. Europe cannot feed its massive (over)population now, and its trouble in that area will grow as global warming sets in with a vengeance.

Excuse moi, already has set in with a vengeance. No petroleum means old-school agriculture with no petro-chemicals to boost yields.

The problem with the world, economists and analysts is they REFUSE to see the problem from the correct perspective.

Like the Cubans after the Soviets fell, the Europeans have become dependent upon constantly expanding credit on their own accounts to purchase fuel from non-euro countries. Think about that for a minute ...

 European credit is bound up with the euro. As the currency and its managers beocme discredited, credit evaporates. This means diminishing amounts of fuel are made available. Diminustion of credit feeds on itself AND constrains fuel imports at the same time.

Observe what is taking place in Greece and other peripheral European nations.

Here is energy conservation by other means.

It is also de-industrialization by other means and there is nothing the euro-managers can do about it except count the bankruptcies and get drunk.

WAIT! This is a solution but I am not going to tell anyone b/c nobody wants to do anything but get drunk and fail in the most conventional way so as not to b blamed.

Good lukc Christine you need it.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:42 | 2093046 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

For the most part I like your post because it shows another view of the "worst case". Of course Christine could not post as you did, although she may be stocking the bunker as we sit and read.

The original question I was going to post was: "What is the f'n baseline". The chart is relative and if the baseline is 6% gdp growth forever, then from a banker perspective the worst case is not so bad. They still get their inflation (err gdp growth) in terms of money supply which allows their interest to be paid and allows them to kick the ball further down the road. Ponzi on dude and please pass the Chateau.

But now, after reading your comment, I have to think "how long does the deconstruction that you envision require to take place?" and I am guessing a total deconstruction would take 10 to 30 years ... momentum works in strange ways and once we come to a conclusion, we always think things will happen more quickly than they do.

Maybe I ought to pull the trigger on buying that off the grid small farm, build the machine shop and rig that electric power tractor.

But then again, I really think the entire game plan is to keep people off balance, create fear and create polarization with an end game that I am still trying to figure out. The powers that be sure seem as if they WANT to create a self destructing revolution and then later be seen as the victims of irrational violence against them. People would then (under one scenario) give up anything for stability and safety... since we become so pathetically dependent. Under another scenario, it does not go quite as planned... go figure.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:35 | 2093284 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Globalization........what a GREAT idea.........until it ISN'T.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 14:36 | 2093282 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

RoboTosser, do you own any physical? I guess the answer is no due to your continuously inane drivel. If it is yes, you continue to show yourself up as a twat. Take your pick.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 18:26 | 2094277 akak
akak's picture

"RoboTosser", LOL!

'RobotTarder" is just as good ---- along with RobotShitforBrains, RobotLemming, RowboatTrader, RobotTraitor, RobotBernankeasskiss, and a veritable host of other noms de plume.  Maybe we should start a contest here ---- "Name that conformist idiot"!

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