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Chart Of The Day: By 2109 Everything Will Be "Sustainable"
Long-time readers of Zero Hedge know that the application of Birinyi's ruler to any trend (traditionally the market, but anything works - after all extrapolating the future courtesy of a few data points is the new killing it) has long been a "favorite" topic of ours. So is media spin in the form of certain "hit" keywords, such as "transitory", "better than expected", and of course "sustainable." Which is why were are delighted when we can combine both concepts into one post, or in this case, chart, which today comes courtesy of xkcd.com, which plot the incidence of the word "sustainable" in English text, and comes up with some amusing predictions, such as that by the year 2109, at current trends, every sentence in the English language will consist solely of the world "sustainable" used over and over.
From xkcd.com
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lol
Economic growth after peak oil is unsustanable. Iraq, Iran aren't about nuclear enabled maniacs. It's all about the oil.
http://www.veoh.com/watch/v20073206BFdxe5c6?h1=THE+END+OF+SUBURBIA%3A+Oil+Depletion+and+the+Collapse+of+The+American+Dream
Economic growth WITH THE CURRENT MODEL is unsustainable after peak oil. We will not fall into an eternal depression and just decline into savagery after peak oil. We just move to a new model.
The only question is, will the government stand in the way of the transition or not? Currently the answer is an emphatic YES.
and AGAIN, you keep babbling and arguing about something NOBODY even mentioned, implied, or suggested!
Did he SAY "eternal depression and savagery"?!?!? NO.
So why the fuck are you bringing it up as a point to argue against?
The CURRENT MODEL relies on growth in energy inputs. That is the only model. There is no way to PRODUCE anything without energy.
<-- Less heat more light
<-- More heat less light
Vote and suggest to Trav777 and Tmosely the way forward!
Well, now that it has beem mentioned, I must say that I am kind of looking foreword to the whole "savagery" thing. As for "eternal depression", savagery beats Prozac hands down.
Give a savage a break!
DW
Peak oil is a scam like Global Warming. Oil is abiotic....it's supply and reserves will keep up with demand.
(hehehehehehehehe......)
It's priced in ... BTFD!
Google Trends confirms? - http://www.google.com/trends/?q=sustainable
Try plugging the following text into Google trends:
"silver bull market"
"Equilibrium", here we come!
www.pmbug.com
"end the fed"
A sustainable economic collapse? A sustainable reversion to the mean?
Most epic graph ever.
On the Old Continant, sustainable will replace Stabeeleeeteeee:)
A data point is a trend.
can we plot the phrase "those assholes?"
.....suggest using an inverted French curve for that....gives you a nice hockey stick meshing with reality.
Fad is destiny.
so a straight line is the shortest route between financial desperation and sustainable hopium; we must all be hooked on Afghan opium...hooked, lined and sinkered.
"so a straight line is the shortest route"
No, the great circular thinking route is the shortest, and it is sustainable as it circles back on itself for infinite recycling...as is evidenced by what the folks in DC are sying.
I always knew that Ruler thingie was wimplistic, circles within circles is so simple. Who wants wimples when we have simples.
I do love xkcd.
US stocks will sustain a rally at the open on overnight futures pumps, to collapse around noon based on reality and sustain a full recovery when the PPT shows up at 2pm and this game will sustain until tommorow. It is questionable if the sustained unemployment rally in DC by the sustained 999 weekers will have a sustained impact on tommorws open.
Sustainable is the new Bitchez, Bitchez
Sustainable is "Rock-a-fellian" code speak for Georigia Guidestones
Hmm must correlate this with "arbitrage".
Only if the trend is really sustainable.
That chart is on Viagra.
?? ??? ?
In 2120: 100% super sustainable
in 2150: 100% hyper sustainable
...
hypersustainability, eh?
(note to self)
1. Create a company called "Sustainable"
2. Trade mark the word "Sustainable"
3. Sue anyone using the word "Sustainable"..
4. Profit!
5. Drink drinks with umbrellas in them along with several scantily clad women!
some problems with #2 and #3 that make all the rest of it moot
Objection sustained. Bailiff, drinks all around.
It's Official: QQQ now at 10-year highs.
Where are the bears today?
LOL...
"official" is no longer a word for accuracy
TO: ROBOT TRADER
"QQQ at 10 year highs." - and that gives you what % avg annual growth? - perhaps 5% - FUCKING AWESOME!
High value, low volume, just like the Beauty Queen who never goes on dates.
Thanks for the tip, MoMo Lizard, I just went short (long QID).
Please let me know how I am doing a year from now.
Hopefully that is sustainable.
On a long enough timeline, apparently 'Full Retard' IS sustainable!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1q_YdTMVQg is a pretty good video about it...
LOL... That made my day.
Is that not the chart for abiotic oil production?
These Regressions are paralleled in politics where you meet your target or explore the Lubyanka.......eventually it will become a motivational tool for errant forecasting in the US when hard times show a persistence and immutability that makes Talking Heads even more ridiculous and absurd........Dead Bankers used to be a speciality of the Baader-Meinhof, but it could become a global franchise
Unfortunately, by 2109 I will no longer be sustainable.
How many sustainable economies does it take to change a light bulb?
None. The FED, ECB and IMF will screw it in real good for you Bitchez!
Squeeze humans' natural religious impulse...and it just come out the other end.
Original sin is still in, "Sustainable" is the new "Salvation" and there are still middlemen trying to strong-arm you into trading liberty for "security".
We used to worship God...now we worship government and the weather.
Mmmmmmmm...progress!
You sir, just pissed off the great and powerful NOAA. A forecast for disaster to be sure.
I meant the weather, years into the future as predicted by the likes of Al Gore.
As a seafearer I generally like and trust NOAA.
Yep... those crazy climate guys....
This guy here for instance
Broecker 1975
and
Broecker Re-examined
I mean, the nerve of him to predict the Earth's temperature in 2010 so well 35 years previously...WTF was *he* thinking
Summary of Temperature predictions
Fig 1. should give you an idea of the credibility of some "experts"...
When is he predicting that the next ice age will hit?...or has that cycle been suspended in honor of those rightful rulers of humankind - Davos Man?
Anything of content to add?
For shits and giggles, are you capable of computing the no-freeze limit as a function of C02 and Solar Irradiance??
Do you even understand the question?
don't confuse a dude in the nude...
I'm capable of computing the likelihood that this chart will continue upward forever and I can also compute the likelihood that anthropogenic forces were responsible for making those squiggly lines go up and down 100k, 200k and 300k years ago.
So the real question is: do you even understand the context?
Pissing in your pants will only keep you warm for so long. There are much larger forces at work and it is pure hubris to think that man is in the driver's seat here.
Ok... expanding on your chart which shows 400,000 years of nice oscillations between 190 and 290 ppmv C02..
The earth's orbit and orbital precession was doing its Milankovitch thingie....
We are currently at about 392 ppmv C02 and 100 ppmv of that is since 1880 (Law Dome cores)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/law.html
I like this one you provided
http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/historical03.jsp
What was that about anthropogenic C02???
I personally think that when essentially all the evidence points to human actions, then maybe we are on to something...
Love to chat... but I have some Cornish Hens to put on...
Yeah, well some of those charts end at particular dates in the past for a reason I've noticed. Scientific American isn't as skeptical as they should be about all this either.
I'm sure human activity is affecting the climate (although only for the last ~150 yrs or so). Even if C02 isn't the (only) mechanism it stands to reason that if you turn half the planet's land mass into a parking lot and belch a bunch of crap into the air it's going to affect something. It just seems obvious to me that over the long term (several to tens of thousands of years) human agency will be overwhelmed by other factors. And even if it isn't that may not be a bad thing - who wants another ice age?
Milankovitch cycles certainly seem to explain a lot over the long term and despite their tight correlation to global temperature you almost never hear about them in the global warming debate (you're obviously more serious about this than your average advocate). You also hear damn little talk about encouraging carbon sequestering technology either. Apparently the only solution is to surrender even more personal liberty to central planners in exchange for "security" and "sustainability". This whole enterprise, as precise and scientific as some aspects of it might be, seems awfully convenient for the micro-managing technocrats of the world who now think they have the world's greatest excuse to be put in charge of everything forever. Under what conditions exactly would a future climate be considered optimal...and we could get our light bulbs back? Remember, it is AGW proponents, not skeptics who have been most guilty of fudging data, coordinating selective presentation of scientific results and corrupting the peer review process. Why is that?
Even if the Western world makes everything non-"green" illegal places like India and China will never get on board and whatever AGW trend we're on now will be just as bad then even without Western world contributions. By all means keep learning and advancing science but if we are indeed stuck with heavy CO2 output (and think its a problem) we better start learning how to deal with it.
Enjoy those hens.
Now that's funny
As I have mentioned, my leading indicator is the NDX, breaking out now to a ten year high at 2450: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ndx&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=13
My working hypothesis is that the continued unwinding of the fed/congressional/bank-sponsored 30 year credit binge will take down or destroy many more marginal equities, but the deepening recession will see surprisingly higher bids for leading stocks in selected profitable sectors. Maybe a modern derivation of the price bid-ups for dividend-paying gold stocks during the 30s depression.
Two consecutive higher NDX closes over 2450 could lead to advances in other strong sectors, and perhaps even some surprising short-squeeze action as the possibility of upward multiple revision starts to come into clearer focus to bear-minded money.
The older I get the more "sustainable" I am.
Amazing.
Love that Birinyi's ruler.
Whatever can't go on forever, won't.
This sustainability thingie is really great, here are some excellent example:
1) Ocean fisheries...
2) Fossil fuel production...
3) Fresh water supplies....
4) Fiat Money printing to fund extraction of the above 3 items...
Did you catch the fact that one of the above is not like the others???
bbbbut....bbbbut....IONIC LIQUIDS!!!!!!111
I think Charlie Sheen used the same chart last year. Winning!
I ran this search:
http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=big+tits&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=0&smoothing=3
I like the D.H. Lawrence "bump".....
Now there's a modernist whose sociopolitical ideas would fit right in today.
EDIT: And it looks like we're fast approaching peak big tits.
If you change the end-point to 2010... you will see that peak BT may indeed be in the rear view mirror...
I'm not sure, but I think data after 2008 is incomplete - which would explain the cliff. Anyway, silicone fracking may delay peak big tits for decades.
Change the search to be 2000 to 2008.... clear peak or "undulating plateau" to you Yergin fans...
Silicon fracking maxed out when the HELOC process was found to have a negative TROTI....
We crack me up.
thats what hardy set to laurel, or was it abbot to costello?
I bet David Rockefeller will still be alive
Bloomberg makes itself officially sustainable!
http://www.bloomberg.com/sustainability?cmpid=ha03
allowing CNBC to save costs by replacing all its news anchors with robots. Of course, no one will notice unless they give us the thirty-something model of Maria Bartiromo.
Maybe off point, but can anyone explain what is going on with orange juice,
SUSTAINABLE!!! Sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable, sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable - sustainable sustainable - sustainable sustainable sustainable.
Sustainable sustainable sustainable, sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable, sustainable sustainable, sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable.
Sustainable,
Sustainable
Obama will still need a teleprompter to read that speech...
these are the good threads that let everyone blow off some steam
In 2109 we'll have cold fusion and we will have already colonized Mars. We will actually miss people and hands to conquer and exploit all these ressources.
Re-hypothecated sustainability is the goal.
...ah ...singularity.
Damn Ray, off by almost 50 years.
P.S. ...my analysis points to 4 years from 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liZtzR3X3bg Lol
It's hard to predict this trend especially now that we're crossing a revolution of changes world wide in sustainability. We're still struggling with the huge problem of disposing garbage which at this point should be a matter we should be able to handle if we want to aspire to a sustainable world. I read some interesting stuff about these initiative on garbage removal nj, they have some numbers that may interest us all if we want to build a better world.