- advertisements -
Leverage bitchez...am i first?
Very few hedge funds manage to outperform the market, despite the fact that they are professionals. Hence it is very unwise to pick particular stocks to try to beat the big boys at their own game. The smartest thing average investors can do is to invest in a mean-variance optimized equity portfolio, be right and sit tight.
Good advice, that way your portfolio today would be what it was worth in 1998.
What you're saying is that we can replace most fund managers with a simple script.
Script? No. You can statistically out-perform the majority of hedgefunds by buying a major index.
Look it up.
A mean mean-variance optimized equity portfolio where the standard deviation to fair value is so high that even a fearless, texas bred, country buzzard with noble beak would fly like a zombie bat in dire fright. Sit tight and let your left hand tell your right where he hid the unlawful gains of insider trading in inequitable equity HF triggered transactions; via dark pools of electronic money infested by bare backed, hard fisted, adrenaline pumped, cocaine high, smart assed, first class, incestuously oriented pool sharks, self proclaimed as the blue blooded bretheren of WS squid pump.
Oh the pink slip blood bath, the night of the long knives at a Hamptons bunga binge turned gory mayhem of fallen hit men.
But we are anticipating the denouement of a good film like Duel...or is it a western like 'the searchers' where heroes never die?
You should turn down the Suzy Orman a notch, and maybe concentrate more on the "value" of hedge fund liquiditiy. This ain't Yahoo, after all.
This begs the question: are there too many hedge funds chasing too few returns?"
...and how hedged the hedge funds really are.
Methinks that the latter point is actually the bigger concern, but what do I know.
If the amount of hedge in a Hedge Fund is zero, what does that portend for its survival rate?
Wait until the correlation gets over 100% then jump ship.
Soon they'll all be posting here as they will be Zero Hedged! 'On a long enuff time line...every HF gets head stuffed'.
all good, market up another percent, which seems to be daily rate going forward...to eternity and beyond
Market will break 12,000 this week as "Earnings" beat lowered expectations and Europe promises to keep making statements. Everyone who wanted to sell did. Add the "refi" Obummer plan that won't do much but the headline reading algos will love and a better than expected 3rd Qtr GDP reading. The computers will do their melt up into Christmas. Dow 12,700 at around Christmas time. Then short!
Hedge funds: a dying business. Shocking!
One of my underlying working hypotheses says that when the banks had to ditch their prop desks they went into HFT to accomplish the same thing. Since then there has been a strong motivation to get rid of the competitors so the 'bots can have the market all to themselves. Retail is already gone so the hedgies and day traders are in the crosshairs. The banks sent their SEC lapdogs after the hedge funds for insider trading, doing lesser versions of what the banks got to do with impunity. Without access to high quality info there is no reason for a hedge fund to exist. I don't know how they'll get the daytraders because this volatility must be doing wonders for any day trader who knows what he's doing. For all their speed and power the algos are incredibly predictable. Maybe that's why there's 'concern' about the leveraged ETFs which are the daytraders' favorite playthings. They won't be happy until the 'bots have total control, but why have a markat at all then? Many would say why have one now?
And price distortions from hedgefund leverage continues, only for the taxpaxers to soak up the misallocation, once the liqudity is pulled, and prices adjust back to sustainable long run levels.
Price distortions from short term leverage are relaying false signals in the market, and masking risk. Once the liquidity dissappears and prices adjust to re-expose risk, we get disorderly adjustments. broken markets. and broken livellihoods.
public money managers who hand over funds to hedgies should be shot.
Gonna be tough unloading when there are no buyers out there but except churning pump-bots.
SD1... Most of the hedgies are in this boat...
"In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. John Kenneth Galbraith"
It seems the only unwind happening anywhere in the global economy is short covering. Doesn't matter what is happening, EUR/USD, credit blowing out, whatever.....S + P 500 to the fucking moon!
Dodd-Frank will straighten this out. /sarc/
After all why pay at least 20% of any upside, when one can hand over less than 1% in transactions costs to the SPY or ES?
1/300th of 1% on ES.
Sell and hold.
Need some preditory algo's to juice your alpha? It's all the rage.
The funny thing is that from 1994 until 2008 market performance accounted for 15% of hedge fund returns. Since 2008 it has accounted for 70%.
Which begs the question of what idiot is paying 2/20 when one could simply buy SPY and call it a day.
Assuming you are still participating in this fraud of a stock market.
Here is the beauty about the fraud known as the stock market:it is rigged one way. It has been more so since 2008.
It will absolutley blow up at some point in the next 5-7 years. And this time there will be no rescue. But until then, one can play the game, knowing how it is rigged.
Status quo has a vested interest in staying status quo. In the end, that will be their undoing. The absolute greed and corruption......
Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do & die,
"....alpha is now officially dead."
next step : we all sink together.
PD Jim asks HF Joe :
"Joe, Do you have your life jacket?"
"Nope Jim, I'm a Hedge Funder, no life jacket, no golden parachute! Yikes!!!"
Bears are getting destroyed again.
Cyclicals like CAT and materials like FCX way too strong today.
WikiLeaks has been shut down, so no more "rumors" about a BAC blowup.
Assange is probably going to have to go back into the porno industry, just to survive.
At 12K I am shorting the world.
Tyler works for a secret hedge fund too, called Mayhem
It's almost all levered BETA because that's what the game demands.
Anyone who has time, money and patience can really knock the socks off the ball.
Hardly anyone has all of the above in the HF space and everyone is chasing MOMO.
The folks at the pension funds are eating fine steak dinners, so they are ok with it.
Just look at HF returns in 2008 and into 2009. Hedged? Yeah, right.
Like Minsky said, too much money in the market destabilizes it. LTCM redux. This next wave down will weed out the unprepared and faint of heart.
Don't blame hedge funds, blame central banks. The Federal Reserve is leveraged 55 to 1. The Bank of Japan is leveraged 50 to 1. European Central Bank is leveraged 25 to 1. Swiss National Bank lost over $40 billion placing losing currency bets.
In fact the US Federal Reserve has more liabilities than all the hedge funds in the world combined. And while it took hedge funds nearly 30 years to get there, it took the Federal Reserve only 2. And while hedge funds use a variety of strategies, some in contradiction to each other, the Federal Reserve uses only one strategy - long bonds.
"Hedge Fund 1-year rolling correlations to the S&P 500 are at historic highs...."
"Hedge Fund 1-year rolling correlations to the S&P 500 are at historic highs...."
What's always left out of these discussions is a basket of considerations including fund 'survivor bias' and reporting errors (intentional - funds don't report performance when they're getting hammered). Additionally, the issue of leverage and beta. Don't forget that HFs use extensive leverage (risk) to generate nothing more than S&P-like correlation. If someone told you that the odds of going to Vega were that (on the upside) you would merely get you money back then, actually, you might be happy b/c you know the risks of that happening are rare - you understand beta and volatility. That never comes-up in HF discussions.
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertise With Us
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
How to report offensive comments
Notice on Racial Discrimination.