Chart Of The Day: Change In Q1 American Debt And GDP

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented without much commentary, because little is necessary: the only ratio that matters for the US economy, the change in US public debt ($359.1 billion) and US GDP ($142.4) in the first quarter, hit 2.52x and rising.

It takes $2.52 in new debt to "buy" $1 of economic "growth"

Source: Debt to the Penny, Commerce Dept

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FOC 1183's picture

this is posted as Cramer is praising Krugman on CNBC.  Beauty

GetZeeGold's picture



That guy should get a Nobel Prize.


Oh regional Indian's picture

Negative Velocity of Money Champs. Such is how it ends, not with a bang but with a whimper.

The wheels of a bloated civilization grind to a halt. 

Debt bubbles exploding makes me see very ugly pictures...



Edit: I just realized KRUGman is GOLDman......Kruger, Krugerrand....see? ;-)

Hard1's picture

Just increase debt faster and GDP can grow at 4%.

DeadFred's picture

A current rates we double the debt in ~7 years. That means I can have 40% more iPhones, cool!

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

We'll grow our way out... really!

DaveyJones's picture

fuck, these numbers are pretty nasty

Why do i hear Reinhart and Rogoff in my head.

Rubbish's picture

I want a refund, I didn't get any of that Big Red on the left.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I love the smell of deflation in the morning..... it smell like...... poverty. Give me my Nobel dammit!!

Agent P's picture

You get the little blue on the right.  The Big Red on the left goes to your children.

Thomas's picture

And the GDP has all those dubious inflation adjustments embedded. What a fucking mess.

tabasco71's picture


At the rate at which iphones obsolesce, in 7 years you can probably have all the iphones made 

matrix2012's picture

Yes, many more iPhones, iPad atau the latest Galaxy things; 52-inch 3-D LED TV or Internet-able LED TV; new 3.0 4WD SUV... feel free to add the long list that builds the strongly pushed forward GLOBALIZATION DREAM...




Is there anybody in there?

Just nod if you can hear me.

Is there anyone at home?

Come on, now,

I hear you’re feeling down.

Well I can ease your pain

And get you on your feet again.


I need some information first.

Just the basic facts

Can you show me where it hurts?

Pink Floyd – Comfortably Numb



Our civilization has adopted the worst aspects of the two most famous dystopian novels in history – Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World. The question is whether the population of this country is too far gone to recover. The answer to that question will determine whether the country chooses authoritarian dictatorship or a renewal of our founding principles. Aldous Huxley understood the three pillars of Western civilization fifty years ago and that their destruction would result in a collapse of our economic system:

“Armaments, universal debt, and planned obsolescence – those are the three pillars of Western prosperity. If war, waste, and moneylenders were abolished, you’d collapse. And while you people are over-consuming the rest of the world sinks more and more deeply into chronic disaster.” [Aldous Huxley]

The three pillars sustaining the American empire edifice of never ending war, ever accumulating debt and excessive consumerism are crumbling. The growing corruption and weight of un-payable debt have weakened the very foundation of our grand experiment. The existing structure will surely collapse. My entire adult life has tracked the decline of the American empire. I had become comfortably numb. I came to my senses and began to question all the Federal government/Wall Street/Corporate Media sponsored truths about eight years ago. Many others have also awoken and begun to challenge the false storylines dictated by those in power."

quoted from the awesomely, beautifully written, Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform in Comfortably Numb


A bit more about Aldous Huxley:

Foreword from

Amusing Ourselves to Death

by Neil Postman

We were keeping our eye on 1984. When the year came and the prophecy didn't, thoughtful Americans sang softly in praise of themselves. The roots of liberal democracy had held. Wherever else the terror had happened, we, at least, had not been visited by Orwellian nightmares.

But we had forgotten that alongside Orwell's dark vision, there was another - slightly older, slightly less well known, equally chilling: Aldous Huxley's Brave New World. Contrary to common belief even among the educated, Huxley and Orwell did not prophesy the same thing. Orwell warns that we will be overcome by an externally imposed oppression. But in Huxley's vision, no Big Brother is required to deprive people of their autonomy, maturity and history. As he saw it, people will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think.

What Orwell feared were those who would ban books. What Huxley feared was that there would be no reason to ban a book, for there would be no one who wanted to read one. Orwell feared those who would deprive us of information. Huxley feared those who would give us so much that we would be reduced to passivity and egoism. Orwell feared that the truth would be concealed from us. Huxley feared the truth would be drowned in a sea of irrelevance. Orwell feared we would become a captive culture. Huxley feared we would become a trivial culture, preoccupied with some equivalent of the feelies, the orgy porgy, and the centrifugal bumblepuppy. As Huxley remarked in Brave New World Revisited, the civil libertarians and rationalists who are ever on the alert to oppose tyranny "failed to take into account man's almost infinite appetite for distractions". In 1984, Huxley added, people are controlled by inflicting pain. In Brave New World, they are controlled by inflicting pleasure. In short, Orwell feared that what we hate will ruin us. Huxley feared that what we love will ruin us.

This book is about the possibility that Huxley, not Orwell, was right.




“Consumerism is able to captivate the individual soul in a way that fascism was never able to do.” — Pier Paolo Pasolini


Hohum's picture

Yes, more debt so more growth.  I think it's been that way most of my life (born 1965).

Mentaliusanything's picture

my how young you are. 

It's not getting any better sweet pea. Nixon.... I understand why he did it but sweet mother he never got the hidden story. 

Any way, I do respect Ben B .. the only tool he has left is himself .. and thats one BIG TOOL.

Pity he painted himself into that corner.

The best revenge is to understand that inflation will save us all. until you understand Ying and Yang... the balance.

Ben does not, and its coming, snowflake by snowflake until it take us all out in an avalanche of debt destruction 

Hey Ben don't forget Inflation ... you made a fart in a tornado.

Thank goodness I left

Hansel's picture

Quick, buy some 10 yr treasuries yielding 1.94%.  The taxpayers are good for it!  /not

eatthebanksters's picture

The model of success...shrinking revenues and increasing costs!  Only in Amerika!

tabasco71's picture

Re "Just increase debt faster and GDP can grow at 4%"

Like China does?

just wondering...

a growing concern's picture

Of topic- I just went through airport security, and for the first time in my life I long to leave this godforsaken shithole and go somewhere free. Never felt this so strongly before I had my entire body irradiated, had to remove my shoes and belt, and watched some 3 year old have to go through the scanner. A fucking 3 year old. Unbelievable.

DaveyJones's picture

that's exactly what TSA said: "fucking three year old"

SheepDog-One's picture

'Ya mind if I touch ya BALLS sir? I just needs ta check ya ASSHOLE...''  I 'jus needs ta check ya asshole - YouTube

Thats 'america for ya.

earleflorida's picture

just sitting back and waiting for a ZH [your a big boy, yeah i'm a big boy] plug on SouthPark - 10.... 9... 8..7. 6 

c'mon randy - spanky, and the gang have had it with ya spending their inheritance, and I, the 'authoritum cartman', ain't gonna take it - so, suck my balls!

NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture


to g c...

That is why some of us have changed our travelling habits drastically. If I can't drive where I want to go, there will have to be a very, very important reason before I will stand in one of those government inspired lines to get my public physical exam again...

pods's picture

You got me, I think my last time was when you could still bring lube in your carryon, circa 2006.

matrix2012's picture

No wonder the airlines industry are crumbling!

TSA has been doing the terrific jobs in SECURING the airlines future.


Make me wondering how's the tourism business there after the presence of the monster TSA?

rosiescenario's picture



Fed Bureakrats.......15


U.S. citizens..........-20

Mentaliusanything's picture

Three year olds ..... my God check them all .. remember after the terrible two's they graduate at Three to Hell on Earth. But when they become adults and remember that blue gloved demi God who touched and gave a little squeeze, they become Graduates of ....... Well let us say Home of the Brave but not really pediphile that it matter a shit.

I left before Nixon and I found a place.. a wide open land, brown and flat, wealthy and free, well free enough that you can go five days and not see a Human in a blue glove. In fact I have never seen gloves only friendly smiles

Question .. Why is it Blue or White (the gloves) Conditioning runs so deep it frightens me and allows me to understand that in the camps, why they did not overpower the few. perhaps it was the weakness of hunger. You shall know that answer. 

It has become the same,,, little by little they herd you until your trapped

Stoploss's picture


It's all about the velocity. Very well done.

The Chairman of the Facist NeoKeynesian Libertarian Party, some how to my surprise, is not pushing the banks to loan quite as strongly as in the previous 2 years. Why??

Velocity... ANY velocity of money at this point in time would be catastrophic instantaneously on a global scale. resulting in immediate, and ultra massive global hyper inflation almost overnight. This is the specific reason the FED cannot move the inflation needle past 1.5%. there is no velocity to allow this to occur, therefore monetary velocity  cannot be allowed to occur, since a tiny amount would result in an immediate inflation spike to 10%, marking the day you stopped commuting and eating. The FED has done an excellent job of destroying itself, much to my pleasure, but now it seems they themselves know the end is near, (you saw that in their faces yesterday).

Additional monetization will be useless, and serve no purpose but to further drive PM's and energy prices into the stratosphere. I think they know that as well, but the politicians don't. They still believe debt is wealth, as long as that is accepted, monetization will continue until the system self consumes.

Good news:

We are there..

John Wilmot's picture

Facist NeoKeynesian Libertarian Party

Uh Oh, he went full retard....

matrix2012's picture

"Additional monetization will be useless, and serve no purpose but to further drive PM's and energy prices into the stratosphere. I think they know that as well, but the politicians don't. They still believe debt is wealth, as long as that is accepted, monetization will continue until the system self consumes."


Any slightest thought that the politicians are quite aware of the debt problems, but perhaps they think of REPUDIATING the debt claims one day??? A kind of reset. Zero debt, problems solved!

Gully Foyle's picture

Oh regional Indian

dude you should play with language more, go Joyceian.

"Negative Velocity of Money Chimps"

"Such is how it ends, not with bling but with a wimple"


Stoploss's picture

dude, don't bash me yet. I aint run cross nobody yet that has a clue to what the hell is going on.


Shocker's picture

That chart, so simple but says so much. Great chart!

Our economy still in rough shape, with or without GDP growing. There is really no way around it




Dr. Richard Head's picture

$1 DOHllar in new shared debt for us all now brings 39 cents in GDP growth for the well-connected.  Nice!!!!!  Talk about a great ROI.  USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!

tocointhephrase's picture

For the first time in my life, USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!

NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture


...actually toco...

For the first time in our lives, just like Michelle, we can be proud that Michelle's husband is doing his job so well as a hand puppet here in the good ol' USA...Good ol' USA is the nonsarcastic part... I still do love this country... That's why this all saddens me so much...

JustObserving's picture

$1 in real debt brings 39 cents in fake GDP growth (since inflation is adjusted down).

centerline's picture

In real terms, we crossed over some time ago in the realm that new debt subtracts from GDP.  You are correct that any positive growth is ponzi-based at this point.



Lost My Shorts's picture

Don't be so harsh.  All they need to do is a 1 for 10 reverse split of the dollar, and the ratio looks pretty good !!  Assterity my aus.  The wizards of econ will make it all OK.

LedMizer's picture

Cramer should get the Oscar

Akrunner907's picture



Do you have the YOY chart for debt and GDP?  It would be interesting to see a moving chart on the X multiplier cost of debt to GDP growth.



Paul67's picture

Maybe Tyler has a better source or can confirm but the link below shows the raw data needed to come up with that number.

The movie quote from the Matrix "your living in a dream world Neo" comes to mind.

Key take away; Convert your paper assets (and I use the word asset in this context lightly) into hard assets (i.e. things that would hurt if dropped on your head from a given height) while you still can.


Matt's picture

A really interesting thing to see is if it works both ways; does a $2.5 cut in government spending only reduce GDP by $1? Unfortunately, we will probably not get to find out.

centerline's picture

This might help.    I posted it above, but thought it would be best to put it here too.