Chart Of The Day: The European Commission's Greek GDP Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture

Reuters has been kind enough to release the "Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece" - a 195 page blueprint that Greece has to follow (unlike the first one, which it kinda, sorta ignored) in order for the money to keep flowing (money to bail out Europe's banks that is). We can save you the reading: below is the only chart of note. This is what the European powers expect Greek GDP to do. It needs no further commentary.

Yup. You read that right:

Also we wonder if Greeks have seen the line "Compensation of employees, private sector per head" which just happens to collapse by 13% in 2012, 3.8% in 2013 and 2.2% in 2014? Does that all add up to 0.0% by 2015?

An unchanged GDP in one year from the economy that just did this:

Not to mention a "banking" sector which has no deposits left:

So the people on the list below: please don't try to calculate your IRR (of European bank funding) - it is negative. But be sure that many more such Tables will be published over the next year.

Full completely meaningless hockeysticking paperweight can be found here.

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Irish66's picture

Did the weatherman write this?

LongSoupLine's picture

no, the weatherman's right sometimes...couldn't be him.


More than likely written by CNBS' Steve Liesman...

Zero_Sum's picture

I don't know what you guys are talking about. That chart is completely reasonable. After all, Greece is a slumbering industrial powerhouse... 

Sam Clemons's picture

Yep, the same weatherman that says the US has grown in real terms the last ten years.

Alexmai's picture

Paul B. Farrell: 10 reasons Wall Street will hit bottom, crash. They’ll crash, again. No matter how anemic the recovery. No matter how much more debt they pile on taxpayers. No matter who’s president. Crash.

Pegasus Muse's picture

PAUL B FARELL: TOO LATE TO JAIL BANK CEOs; ONLY REVOLUTION WILL SUCCEED – Four time bombs that will blow up Wall Street

1 March 2011, by Paul B. Farrell (MarketWatch)


Put Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein in jail for six months, and all this will stop, all over Wall Street and America, a former congressional aide tells Matt Taibbi in his latest Rolling Stone attack, “Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail?

Financial crooks brought down the world’s economy — but the feds are doing are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them.”

Taibbi’s right, everyone knows Wall Street’s run by a bunch of dictators who are doing more damage to democracy and capitalism than North Africa’s dictators.

But jail the CEOs of Goldman, Citi, B. of A. or my old firm Morgan Stanley? Too late.

Only a revolution will stop Wall Street’s self-destructive capitalism. And watching the people revolt against dictators like Mubarak and Gadhafi reminds us of the spirit that sparked America’s revolution in 1776.

But today we need a 1930s-style revolution.



French Frog's picture

If this wasn't tragic it would be funny

Spooky Polish's picture

It's not tragic, it's magic ! 

mvsjcl's picture

Never believe it's not so.

Pacifico's picture

Drama is actually a real city in Greece.

Makes you wonder...

Spooky Polish's picture

Ohhh reaally? What do they eating in the morning?  Meth based breakfast ? 
Or they believe , that Greeks became EuroChina , and put their plants there ?

Seriously, one and only possible scenario of 0% decline in 2013 is 100% decline in 2012.


rotfl, EUgoldmanDrones 

BudFox2012's picture

Awesome - I'm glad Greece is going to accelerate growth even though they have been negative since 2008.  With all this extra money they have coming in, they will be able to help bail out Portugal, Spain, and Italy in the near future, and the US longer term.  Bullish!  </sarcasm>

Spooky Polish's picture

I hope those Greek based piles of money will be enough to save whole EU, and perypheries like Poland , when time comes. 

mantrid's picture

One wouldn't like to be in Greek GDP's boots in case it refuses to do what European powers expect it to do. They could torture it with forecasts to death.

youngman's picture

What is tragic is that a bunch of so called educated people can sit in a room and come up with this one has the street smart or the logic to call it out as crap...that is what is tragic.....the group think...

LongSoupLine's picture

I disagree, because you're implying that they are sitting in a room trying to think out a solution.  This is so far off base that it stinks of BLS modeling.  What we're viewing here is nothing more than a Lazlo rulered propaganda chart with 0% real data forecast incorporation and extrapolation.

Mae Kadoodie's picture

GDP=Greeks Don't Pay


alexwest's picture

is it me or first chart look slike exactly CBO forecast chart of federal revenues?


dontgoforit's picture

I wouldn't want to be an Athenian right now - or this time 10 years from now.  You know, there's a lot of little kids there who are gonna grow up with a maligned view of the world.  Really sucks for the innocent ones.  God bless 'em.  So not good.

And this is what we're setting up for our grandchildren right now here in the US.

alexwest's picture

well, no offense pal but under no conditions situation in Greece will look like
here in Detroit , USA if you know what i mean..

Greece is old as Earth.. they lived through way way way worse times.. somehow they survived.

but I 100% sure nothing will be any good in Motor City. its beyond any hope.


LookingWithAmazement's picture

Greek crisis will go over, banks will start lending again, economy grows, Greece returns to capital markets. Bye bye crisis. Be honest folks: you all expected the euro to be have been collapsed by now. Well, it's still there.

BTW: an Iranian nuke would enhance (not threat) peace in the Mid-East: "Can one seriously think that the day when Iran has a nuclear weapon, its first concern will be to launch it at Israel and be devastated in its turn in the following minutes?"


Leap/E2020 has it right. So, eurocrisis over, Irancrisis over, what's left? 2012 really is a muddlethrough year, as I predicted. Boring world we live in.

Iam Rich's picture

"...Greece returns to the capital markets.."  Is this /sarc?  Trolling (you got me!)?  Let's have a look at Argentina and their (non-)return to the capital markets.  Greece has nothing to offer.  Greece will not be returning to the capital markets for a very long time.


Eurocrisis over?  Greece is not the Eurocrisis.  Lot's of excitement still ahead!  Yep, muddle through 2012 seems possible.  But muddle through to what?

Non Passaran's picture

Excellent analysis.
Pimp that resume up, CNBC is keen to get you on board ASAP.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Well, sarcasm or not, when baselines are reduced to very low levels, they DO flatten and then rise.  They have to, in the absence of mass deaths, which may happen but are not in any of these budgets.

What I'd take issue with is the slope of the curves.  Greece will hit bottom and start to improve, but the rate of improvement won't be remotely close to these predictions.  Some oil events can delay it or flatten it further, but Greece cannot descend to zero.  If even one person starts a hot dog stand in Syntagma Square, where there was none before, that's GDP growth.  Someone IS going to do that.  So from flatlines there is improvement.

So let's not overdo the dark future of Greece, which is plenty dark as is.


JPM Hater001's picture

I dont get it.  I see roses and sunny days ahead...

gared44's picture

Guys guys guys.... there are things that you DO NOT know about Greece. Cyprus has found 10 trillion cubic feet of gas in one of its 12 blocks. Greece is ready to start drilling as well. Estimation of findings is MUCH MUCH bigger than that of Cyprus. NIGHTY NIGHT guys...

Non Passaran's picture

Aaaah, that explains why their rating was knocked off yesterday!

gared44's picture

indeed!!! it shows how subjective credit rating firms are! Cyprus finding is estimated at 70-80 bn $ . Cyprus GDP is 25bn $ .So indeed their economy is junk......

cygnetsong's picture

Greek growth plan:

"Boys!  Boys for sale!"

Dick Darlington's picture

FInland's PM Jyrki Katainen today:




Oh the hubris and complacency! It is exactly this kind of behavior that will GUARANTEE failure.

greecerules's picture

of course they have a bright future "once the crisis is over".  haha what part of that didn't you understand?

gatorengineer's picture

What is tragic is that the US taxpayer kicked in almost 7 billion into this latest round via the IMF...... AND NOBODY not even the Tylers even mentioned it........

greecerules's picture

Why is this tragic?  The US greatly benefits from a stable eurozone.

virgilcaine's picture

Greek 10 Yr Yield drops 50%  overnight @ 17% ?   while the One Yr Greek Bond  @ 1143%. Some crazy stuff happening in these bond markets.

amitmittal's picture

seems to be a result of review having updated the headlines as they expect the GDP to come to -4.75% this year


Meanwhile while Swiss and France Prices showed a year on year softness , inflation kept positive in Italy at 0.4% for the month and at the EU rate of 3.3% for the year.

The Second Greek Economic Adjustment Programme ( Bailout ) is however now available in the public domain as accepted (open here ) and approved and is going to be in for some widely felt criticism with Economists and bureaucrats going with a prepackaged 0 budget schedule for 2013 for the trapped state. The target is about 7% of GDP to be recovered and the fiscal deficit which has improved from 15% to 9% this year in just two years, is at the same time expected to grow back to a near 0 2013. Greece is also expected to return to market financing after just three years. The three targets together have had most Economists’ a reason for continued no Confidence in Euro integration

US Economy: FOMC, Greece, Retail Sales ex Auto hold up | The Banking and Strategy Initiative

greecerules's picture

why is everyone fixated on where greece's debt is trading?  its irrelevant.  greece is and will continue to be funded by the EU for a very long time.  Eventually the EU will have to write down a substantial portion of their loans to greece and the debt/gdp ratio will revert back to more normal levels of 60% or so. 


_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

inverse that 2012+ line and we got what will actually happen.