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Chart Of The Day: Fed Interventions Since 2008

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The chart below, via Stone McCarthy, shows the months with Fed intervention since December 2008. That in the past 42 or so months, less than one third have been intervention-free, should close any open questions about whether the stock "market" is anything but a policy vehicle used by the Fed to perpetuate a broke(n) status quo now entirely dependent on every market up (and down) tick. We dread to think what would happen to those record low US bond yields if the market were to be left on its own without the backstop of guaranteed Fed intervention in the interest rate market... ironically something which Barclays is in boiling hot water for right about now.

And a detailed breakdown:

 


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Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Zola
Zola's picture

Bernanke and Rope should be the next two best friends

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Only manipulated 2/3 of the time??

What the hell are they doing the other 1/3 of the time?

Lazy fucks!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Beyond the jokes, it would have to wonder which is the limit of these manipulations, or that will be long-term consequences of them.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Long term consequence is that capital formation is impossible...  and the sheep that manage to live through the ordeal will have watched their brethren skinned...  In other words, no more trips to the shearer.

The limit to manipulation is a little trickier...  I think this entails a timing decision, of which everyone is a dart thrower...  but, I think it's fair to say that willful suspension of disbelief can go on far longer than many expected.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Long term? what long term? Bernanke is almost 60 years old. Why does he care at all.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

PLEASE EMAIL THIS ARTICLE DIRECTLY TO THE FED'S FRAUD DEPT.:

 

Federal Reserve Consumer Help: ConsumerHelp@federalreserve.gov 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

I get a "550 SHUT THE FUCK UP, TAXPAYER" non-delivery response from that address.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont believe that, every single day is a day of Fed manipulation and intervention, or markets would be less than half of what they are right now.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

For every intervention you get at least a smidgen of goodwill/expectation of intervention fuel.  I'll posit that the remainder is simply fueled by the expectation of additional intervention... 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

At this point, it appears that they have finally reached the homeostasis position of:

~~~

- All those 'clued in' to what's going on have completely removed themselves from financial markets

- All those 'clueless' still have depository remnants because they are fearful of withdrawl penalties (whereby they haven't quite grasped the reality that doing this would be in their better interest)...

- The bloodsucking money managers & otherwise leeches who, in a perfect world, are supposed to be professional intermediaries (with a conscience), but there's NEVER a perfect world around when you need one...

~~~

So the bulk of the rest is left to ALGOS & HFT (which are just the financial version of the geek 'ROBOT WARS', that Stanford & MIT fucks spend their time creating because they can't get any pussy)... Central Bankers, & their lizard family masters, (who get even LESS pussy), are more than happy, but don't expect to receive a THANK YOU NOTE for your participation & cooperation... Just keep playing & STFU... (Oh look! Katie & Siri moved out)...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Refilling the paper tray, and ordering more ink.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Letting GE Cap, the Squid and all the rest do their work for them, while they watch porn.

It sucks for all the pension funds and retirement plans that are invested in LIEBOR rate-related funds. All the municipal plans, state plans, on and on it goes.

You can bet all these funds' lawyers are just chomping at the bit to sue everyone in sight. There won't be any government sponsored whitewash of this (mortage fraud settlement). Try and keep the state AGs from blowing this up. All the states are broke, courtesy of GE Cap, the Squid and all the rest. This is going down bigtime.

And Barclay's wasn't doing this behind closed doors, either. It involved every level of employee, all out in the open:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9368430/...

They just don't care. This is going to be hard to hide, once the lawsuits are filed.

Even TEPCO shareholders are suing for $67 billion dollars over the Fukushima disaster:

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3534291.htm

Big bucks to be had. The lawyers may be our last line of defense - or at least until the courts are shut down.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Spaceman Spiff
Spaceman Spiff's picture

The other 1/3 of the time was devoted to rumor mongering, pointless congressional testimony, and direct retiree plundering...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Watching porn.

Seriously, though....this is one of the most important charts ZH has ever shown.

Who needs Congress?  The Fed runs everything now; all they need the Govt to do is protect their ass while their corporate friends suck the country dry.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment km4
km4's picture

STIGLITZ: The Fed Obviously Mismanaged The Economy - Business Insider

Every downturn comes to an end but prospects of the US returning to full employment in the next five years is quite honestly bleak. Even the CBO does not really see the US getting to full employment until the end of the decade. And a lot of people, realists, think it's going to be in the next decade. The fed can cause a problem. The fed obviously mismanaged the economy before 2008.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"We dread to think what would happen to those record low US bond yields if the market were to be left on its own without the backstop of guaranteed Fed intervention in the interest rate market..."

Actually I dread to think what will happen to those record low US bond yields when the Fed's intervention is no longer effective, yet they continue to try, try and try some more. 

That's gonna leave a mark for sure.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Intervention will remain effective in the Fed's eyes as long as traders and investors remain so nieve, which juding from the bullshit that was Friday isn't going to change anytime soon. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Who cares about yields when the currency is on the line?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

The trend is your friend and the trajectory despite massive injections of the blue pill is lower.

In other news....Anderson Cooper just announced that he is "out of the closet" - days over. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Quick! Somebody put him back in!... I nominate you lizzy...

~~~

No more shenanigans, no more tomfoolery, no more ballyhoo..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftl_ckcpZgY

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If anyone can convince Cooper to "change teams" it's you Lizzy. You can "turn him". :>)

(an old Seinfeld reference BTW)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdU9Dcd4WV8

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well "not that there is anything wrong with that" - ;)

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I knew he had to blow somebody to get that job...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It was that last fucking dick!...

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=876pmxUFYmY

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I wonder if he has sucked an entire bag of dicks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzbURUrgQao

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Rome burns and Cooper's in the pooper, surprise me not! 

I'll bet his parents are proud - really fucking proud!!  Since being a faggot is so trendy, this will totally make his career jump among the completely fucking clueless.

If only fag-sex was worth more than a half dime to humanity... faggots using sexual-trends to build their careers, even less.

 

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment monad
monad's picture

It was that illuminati initiation. They are all homos, hell bent on boring us to death with their trivial, meaningless, insignificant sex lives. If he flips out & shoots a few dozen bank execs, lobbyists or members of the Washington 545, that would be news. Otherwise, who cares? He's just an expensive parrot. Probably he found out they were going to let him go, so he 'came out' so he can sue them if they do. He couldn't say he's Jewish, they would check that. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

the real turn of event for the bulls is whne the fasb was held at gunpoint in marchof 09..and told to allow mark to magic acounting to be used again..those 1 trillion of rotting assest loses ar now maybe worth 900 billion..yet the banks dont have to show them on thier sheets..it like saying i have a 10 dollar bill in my walle t but im saying i have a 100 instead..(even though its only 10)

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Barclays is in boiling hot water for right about now.

Yes! That FSA is deadly, man.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The Fed WILL intervene despite the fact that M2 Money Velocity is the lowest since 1959. Both US and EURO PMI breaking through stall speed levels.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/pmi-falls-below-50-a-warning-shot-and-administration-is-raising-taxes-ignoring-the-laffer-curve/

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This is called "managing the decline of the empire" They don't want the empire collapse,that would be too disruptive to the status quo. They know collapse is inevitable, so they are managing the decline the best they can.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH but if youve been saying for many years that its all collapsing, they called you a 'fringe kook'

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

This is called "managing the decline of the empire"

Manage this...

http://www.explorethomascole.org/tour/items/69/series/

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Is that what happens when the KRACKEN is released?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

And these charts don't even take into account all the jawboning these assholes do to rig the market higher. I'd say the market manipulation is in the 90% range.  I can't wait for the whole thing to collapse so we can watch Dimon, Geithner, Bernanke, Summers, etc get hanged on prime time.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

But, but...I thought you said it was all great Warren and Charlie! Best time to buy stocks right?  I mean...5 year economic recovery and all...

 

Berkshire’s Pederson Says U.S. Businesses Scaling Back

"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)’s furniture- rental unit saw a slowing in demand from business clients in the second quarter, indicating that firms are curbing spending on projects amid less optimism about the U.S. economy."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-02/berkshire-s-pederson-says-u-s-b...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Rates will hit 1% as stocks crumble and anyone with any money move from crap paper to slightly less crappy paper.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Too bad more people didnt move their money into rural farmland like I was saying to do long ago. Of course thats not a perfectly safe cure-all, but certainly better option than 'less crappier paper' the sheeple herd into.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Also in a large bubble, but at least it provides a little more utility than a bond...

The strangest part is that everyone is still piling into farmland...  I don't believe price discovery is possible in virtually any asset class atm...  who knows.  Buy utility and go on.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

Ignoring supply and demand for an instant, and using Fed numbers for the generic 10yr since 1953, produces an average yield of roughly 6 & 1/4 percent (compared to about 2% with massive intervention). Given that the last reported fiscal year interest on debt was about $270 billion (excluding state and local and any other shenanigans at the federal level), we are talking a “normal” interest of very roughly in the range of $1 trillion (again, not taking into account realistic “market” demand combined with unheard of levels of supply). In short, back of the envelope calculations that even a vampire squid could do, tell us that not intervening means game over. Realistically, who would actually lend to the cultural Marxists in control at around 6%, 12%, more …? Regardless, the game is ending and it is likely that by this time next year this will all be filled under the hindsight bias memory: “I knew that interest rates that low couldn’t last … what were they thinking …”

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Thanks for the nice analysis.  Now there is much less room in terms of interest rate variance where the game can keep going. I expect they'll keep it going as long as possible, meaning interest rates can never go up again, or at least if they do our fiat financial paradigm will have to be trashed for something new.  This seems to be what is begining in many European countries now.

On the other hand, the Japanese have successfully held rates very low for quite a long time.  The yeild on the Japanese 10yr bond hasn't been over 2% for almost 15 years, and is less than 1% today.  Have a look at a long-term chart here.....

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield

Even the Japanese 30 yr bond is yielding less than 2%

Our FedGov is in a similar situation, from which there is no escape, other than to become the next Europe.  So rates must be manipulated down just to keep the current fiat based paradigm going (on life support like a patient in a coma).

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Paul451
Paul451's picture

Only manipulating the market 'sometimes'? Is that like being a 'little bit' pregnant?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Fed mandate:

1. Print money

2. Pray for a miracle

3. Return to step 1

 

100% FUBAR...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment LongOfTooth
LongOfTooth's picture

The information, which will probably never be made public, that I'd like to see is when and how many times has the PPT (a.k.a. the working group on financial markets), the banks, the Treasury, etc., etc. taken action which had an influence on the direction of the market(s).

 

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Ben Bernake and the Fed will QE to infinity. Game continues until other countries flee from the US dollar.

 

Bernanke cannot raise rates. He must keep them down with esculating debt. If the US interest rates were to go up the US would be unable to pay interest at some point.

 

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment C0re
C0re's picture

so LSP1b and LSP2 both saw increase in rates while they were in progress....

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Primary wave 3 down for the Dow and SP500 is unfolding.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

dual mandate of the fed:  full employment and low inflation.    who thinks if we changed it to one mandate, a stable dollar (vs gold or basket of other currencies)...it may go further than a dual mandate?  

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Entrepreneur
Entrepreneur's picture

One slight refinement to your title:

Chart Of The Day: (Acknowledged) Fed Interventions Since 2008
Mon, 07/02/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

I've just got one thing to say about the Fed in regards to this chart...

"You're not doing it right"

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

To maintain ZIRP, Fed needs to intervene constantly, doesn't it?

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