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Chart Of The Day: Garbage Shall Set You Free... From GDP Manipulation
It is no secret that just like the Achilles heel of China's goalseeked GDP number is the country's ever declining electric output, so the best coincident indicator of what is really going on behind the scenes with US GDP is railcar loadings of waste and scrap: i.e., garbage. As Bloomberg explains: "One closely watched economic indicator is the rail car loads of waste and scrap materials." Logically: "The more we demand, the more waste is generated by that production." In other words, if one is seeking validation that numbers reported by the BEA are even remotely credible, the best place to turn to is railcar loads of garbage. However, not surprisingly, such validation will not be found in the actual data. As the chart of the day, courtesy of Bloomberg Brief, demonstrates, if garbage is the benchmark, the US economy is now contracting faster than it has at any one point in the past 3 years and is on pace to recreate the economic collapse last seen after the Lehman bankruptcy. Perhaps another reason why central planners have latched on to stock markets and will just not let go.
Some more from Bloomberg:
Two railroad companies made mention of this weakness. Norfolk Southern talked of “reduced shipments of municipal solid waste,” while CSX claimed “aggregate and waste shipments will remain challenged.” Waste Management talked about improving volumes, but said it would remain soft while residential business is still negative.
One wonders just what would happen if at some point reality is once again allowed to peek into and set the "market" prices of assets. Sadly, if the JPM CIO's precedent is any indication, where the endless push on IG9 actually meant keeping spreads for single name intrinsic credits far tighter that where they should have been (the same as what the ES and SPY are doing with all the intrinsic stocks) this will never again be allowed to happen.
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Short garbage picking.
When the FED starts printing more fiat, does that decrease or increase this indicator?
Burn that paper to keep warm. - Reduce the waste stream.
Oscar the Grouch knows WTF is up.
Well....there goes the coffee on the Thinkpad.....glad to know this thing has channels for liquid spill under the keyboard.
ROTFLMAO !!!!!
That's my fault. Forgot to put out the cans for pickup this week.
This is a more accurate method of determining than many people think. In our city the council kept fudging the numbers about our 'growth', but the guys who ran the sewage treatment facility kept saying there was no way it was growing, but in fact it was shrinking. Turns out they were right.
When people stop eating, they stop shitting. Funny how that works.
While that is true for most people, everytime the Bernank opens his mouth shit comes out.
It's somewhat weather dependent also. Even in a total sanitary system only, the wetter the weather the more the flow.....we're in a drought. BUT, I have access to the number of sewer permits for new housing and ....it ain't pretty. And, there are no new developments on the drawing table either.
maybe people are just uh.......maybe.....there's.......SP is rising like a pile of shit that magically grows from nothing...
Cripes...now I don't know where my next meal is coming from...
Stamped on rest stop garbage cans on I-95 in Maine,"No barrel picking".
Sitting around watching TV doesn't produce much garbage (other than inside your head), but it does produce economic activity - unless you get cable or netflix for free.
I'm in the business. There is another cause for this. Comingled recycling has removed 35%to 40% of volume from the solid waste system.
I'm in the business. There is another cause for this. Comingled recycling has removed 35%to 40% of volume from the solid waste system.
Unfortunately its election year and garbage train will go down but not stock market.
http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/08/greece-out-of-cash-upcoming-important.html
Tyler you have to see this ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-despite-recovery-many-struggling-130844703.html;_ylt=Arsq6CE3VW0Tt5t6TMs9Y2iiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTRwbGJvb2Y4BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzIG1peGVkIGxpc3QEcGtnAzQ1MjFmZmYxLTRlMzQtMzYxYy1hOTNlLWZkNGNjOWEzZjg3NARwb3MDMwRzZWMDTWVkaWFCTGlzdE1peGVkTFBDQVRlbXAEdmVyAzUwZTYyOWEwLWRmYzgtMTFlMS05ZmQ5LThiZTBlY2VjOTBhZQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
Bernanke said there have been interesting developments in the field of the measurement of economic well-being. He cited the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan's Gross National Happiness index, which incorporates indicators such as level of education and time spent in leisure activities, as an example of an alternative survey.
More conventional economic measurements that bear on the quality of life include income distribution, upward mobility, job security, and buffers households have to protect against financial shocks, he said.
"All of these indicators could be useful in measuring economic progress or setbacks as well as explaining economic decision making or projecting future economic outcomes," he said.
Any time the High Priests speak, my bullshit-o-meter goes off.
"Some things which count, cannot be measured. Not everything that can be measured, counts." -Albert Einstein.
GNHI is an interesting econometric possibility, but when you're dealing with central banks and central planners with a great many reasons to lie ... it's easy to fudge, even easier than most of the current indicators, and that's not even considering the BLS' magic fingers.
They'll tell us that as inflation (or delfation) picks up, unemployment soars, SNAP use climbs, tax revenues fall, etc. that we're happier than ever because, hey, more leisure time!
GARBAGE IN/GARBAGE OUT BITCHEZ!!!
dumpster content more and more turning into home furnishings and dinner. skews the data.
One man's garbage is another man's treasure. Dumpsters diving might just become the new national pastime. I can't wait until The Discovery channel makes it a series.
yeah, they kind of missed it with American Pickers.
my expectations were let down.
It's the new hedonics.
There is no inflation particularly in beef.....everyone is eating thrown out SPAM from the dumpster.
What? Someone is throwing perfectly good spam in the dumpster? That is just wrong! lol
Housing construction puts out a lot of scrap, but that's been down for a while.
Expect the manic (chart) swings to become even more violent as the merry-go-round accelerates and the centrifugal forces increase exponentially.
The "voters" will get exactly what they deserve - same as it ever was.
I will differ to the late great George Carlin on precisely what political "choices" you may think that you have.
"I will differ to the late great George Carlin on precisely what political "choices" you may think that you have."
'differ' or 'defer'? Big difference.
"Defer" - Here, let George help you out;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsL6mKxtOlQ
LawsofPhysics - my comment had nothing to do with Mr. Carlin and everything to do with a word you used that said you 'differed' from him. It was a question of clarification. My opinion on Carlin was already formed.
I hate autocorrect. Yeah, I made a spelling error and fully admit that, now get the fuck over it. If you think spelling is going to be one of the major problems for humanity moving forward, then I wish you the best of luck.
Deo vindice got 3 down arrows for correctly calling out the misuse of a word (unintentional or otherwise) that totally changed the meaning of a sentence- what the fuck is wrong with you people....words matter
I see that on websites all the time. People who appear to be doing well in life, via the things they have. Yet trying to read what they have typed makes you go WTF?
Misspelling, not knowing the difference between then and than, or affect and effect, bad punctuation. Not saying I am an english literature expert, but sheesh, at least I know how to spell, and know the difference between differ and defer. ;-)
Thumbs up fer ya!
I'm not a fan of lawsofphysics, but here goes: "differ to" is grammatically garbage-nonsense, i.e. it is so obviously wrong that, in good faith, it cannot be interpreted as anything other than a typo. The correct grammatical construction is "differ from." There are 2 possibilities, one is either acting is bad faith, or one is ignorant of grammar and therefore in no position to be calling out anything.
Life lesson: there's always a bigger pedant.
how about quoting HL Mencken or Machiavelli sometime instead of "George Carlin said this..." ad nauseum. Carlin got into the 1% by spouting his shtick to guys like you.
"Guys like you"
LMFAO, you don't know shit about what percent I may be in loser. Thanks for the laugh.
dumbass guy like you- where did I mention/care what % you were in-I just said you made him rich by paying to listen to his contrived bullshit. your use of "differ" in your post confirms my suspicion of your intelligence level(that, the carlin reference and use of "LMFAO' like a 13 year old texting teen girl)
Let me guess, you probably don't think George earned that lifestyle either. Troll harder loser.
no-I think he just kept rolling out a bunch of tired old jokes for his mouth-breathing audiences to guffaw over for $50 a ticket(even though they were too stupid to realize that THEY were they object of his scorn and derision)
I don't have the data handy, but I would suspect that both Mencken (who I like) and Machievelli (loser) were both in the 1%. I also like Carlin, find humor where ever possible. Shit, even Biden is good for a few chuckles.
Mencken was the son of a cigar manufacturer, a solid bourgeois all his life. Machiavelli wrote "The Prince" in hopes of getting a government job. Carlin came from a broken home, working class at best.
Soooo...you are George Carlin?
You should be quoting George, as he's correct about education, and you prove his point. The word is ad nauseam. Learn how to spell and you can come back and critique George.
While I agree that spelling is important (and I hate autocorrect). Correct spelling will be the least of humanity's problems moving foward.
find this article hard to believe with amount of solid waste/shit that spews forth from CNBC talking heads'/MSM Obama water carriers' mouths.
so do a dump my barrel of scrap copper now before price meets reality? or should I wait for Ben to print ?
Garbage will pick up on election time.
yes a veritable toxic dump tornado is coming our way ...duck!
From the ministry of propaganda:
a) Trash is stockpiled at home in times of vacation
b) Individualist reuse trash for expressionistic art
c) New inventions allowed trash industry to transform trash into thin air
c) Imrovenents of the railcar reduces railcar loads
d) Reports of pirated trash are increasing
e) Trash is now the new resource and partly shipped to china
...
You know that there were reports of "Cash-for-Clunkers" being shipped to China... they might have attached some requirements to the funding we got.
You forgot to check garbage barges going out to sea to dump the trillions of overproduced crap that was counted in GDP, so that more useless crap can be produced to fake GDP only to be dumped in ocean trenches.
It would be funny is SpaceX was created to launch billions of unsold merchandise into space.
Someone at some point has to take the hit on their books. You can't have this much unsold inventory in the supply channel and not have a negative effect.
Yeah, what ever happened to those garbage barges that no east cost state would permit to land?
Another data point for TPTB to manipulate now that they know we are aware of it.
That's a damn good point. Sure, the gobbige numbers LOOK bad, but that's before birth/death & seasonal adjustments. Remain calm! All is well, bitchez!
Well, people could simply be RR&Ring more now that Obama has inspired everyone to live healthier, greener, smarter and more community focused lives.
Or aggregate demand is collapsing. One or the other :)
I would ask that you please refrain from using the words "Obama" "has" and "inspired" in any sequence within a sentence.
That is all.
Okeydokey.
But..."Obama" "has" "inspired" me to buy and hold physical Gold & Silver.
Is that okay or am I a terrorist?
They can goose the 'market' all they like, it still doesn't change the basic funnymentals. People can't buy stuff if they have no money and are too much in debt
Yes we have no Banana peels
"Garbage Shall Set You Free"
Yes that's what statists, academics, philosophers and (shocker) politicians have been promising about Govt and Law for 2,500 years
...and it hasn't worked in 1 of them
It works great for them
Maybe Gov't Motors should re-route some of its channel-stuffing vehicles right to the compactors to up the scrap metal count. Would boost GM sales, tick up the garbage indicator, and maybe even boost factory orders for hydraulic compactors all at once.
exactly what I was thinking. some old school channel stuffing where stuff just sits on railroad cars.
Polar opposite of garbage creation.....dollar supply.
I would have thought them synonymous...
more proof of ipads changing the world
I'm so proud to live in the land of the once free and the home of the duped.
Its very clear now that what actually happened was in 08' the market indeed did completely crash and the central banks and the powers that be took over and everything is fake now. Total and complete life support. This is why the DHS is rushing to put troops and assets in place all over the country as we speak to try and control the certain civil unrest that is coming. This is also why there has been an increasing pace of the passing of disturbing draconian laws that have been put in place for population control and seisure of land, vehicles, and basically everything you can imagine. This will happen in the next year, good luck to all, god bless you all, and that is all, good night.
"1984" (Orwell) + "Hunger Games" (Collins) = "The World I Know" (Collective Soul)
HOLY DUMPSTER DIVER BATMAN !!!!
This is why I love this site SO much ! Never would have thought of this....but makes so much sense and will definitely be a goto chart in the future to keep abreast at what is happening in the real world.
Zerohedge....leaving no stone....or dumpster unturned !
Rumours that Syria's Assad has been killed or wounded...get long crude, bitchez.
have they counted Robo's garbage yet? surley all those old crocs, uggs, leotards and half-eaten burrito's would make a dent in the number?
We've finally transitioned to a Service Economy.
Maybe the rail companies can make a deal to haul all the garbage that the Fed "bought" up? Seems a big win to me...
Communist China + Facts = Oxymoron
Fascist USA + Facts = Oxymoron
I wish people would quit stooping to use stupid lables. Here, here's an easier equation that covers it all:
BIG = FAIL
This is a very interesting chart, but I'd like to add a caveat. Since metal prices have crashed, there is less demand for scrap metal and therefore less rail traffic for it. I wonder how much of the decline in hauling is related to the decrease in demand of metals and all recyclables for that matter.
My guess is that the drop in waste hauling will be a bit steeper than the fall in GDP.
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/
Blame the Freegans! They are destroying the jobs of carting mobsters one moldy orange at a time!
"Classical economics imagined that primitve exchange occurred in the form of barter...[but] a means of acquisition such as exchange might have its origin not the need to acquire that it satisfies today, but the contrary need, the need to destroy and lose." - Georges Bataille, Notion of Expenditure (1932)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRl8vhXYdJA
My office has a recycling plant down the street and a port o potty company up the street. For the past few years I have been using the activity at these businesses as a true measure of the economy. We also have an LTL trucking company across the street. The recycling company has cut their staff in half and stopped their 18 hour operation 3 years ago and continue slowing. The port o potty company used to go out with 15 or so port o potties at a time throught the day. A few years ago they only transported 2 or 4 at a time. Now they are moving to a smaller facility. The trucking company is now a consolidation of 3 terminals that closed. The trucks activity used to be all day long now they are only active in the early a.m.. Nobody can ask me to pull their finger and buy into any sign of an improved economy. Heck. My trash cans at home get put to the curb half empty now!
Know someone who used to drive port a potty trucks. Had his hours cut back drastically. Interesting info Stuck in California...thanks !
I used to work for port a potty but I quit.
The job stank and the wages were shitty...Tah-Dah !:O)
Looking at the chart: The metrics seem to coincide during the 2001 downturn and the 2008 downturn, but are loosely reflective during the non-recession years.
The next reading on the GDP will either confirm the garbage metric or not. Of course, by then we'll either be in a recession or not. NBER won't confirm it until it's 6 months into it.
Considering the quality of most of the Chinese goods I've seen recently, how can they tell garbage from finished product?
No kidding. Getting worse and worse.
I have worked for a Chinese outfit. This is how they operate:
1) Samples made to customer specification and from virgin materials.
2) First product shipped is to same specification (but try to get some recycled materials in there if possible - early win).
3) Reduce the quality of subsequent shipments by any means until the product starts to break and the customer whines
4) Revert to least-best product specification which does not break.
This is how Chinese factories can always win the tender. They never intend to deliver to specification and will always trim up to the point where the product is on the very brink of breaking/failing.
Personally I believe this is a pure expression of Taoist philosophy - all activity causes pain so reduce activity to the minimum. It is the path to enlightenment and it is perfection in the sight of the Buddha ;O)
"always trim up to the point where the product is on the very brink of breaking/failing."
And this is different from how many US companies do it, how?
I have a Ford truck that was part of a recall. The part -a leaking speed control switch- that is the CAUSE of the problem wasn't addressed. Instead, Ford puts in a fused wire that will blow before the faulty switch sets things on fire. Later year models no longer use this switch...
Big companies have departments that calculate costs of utilizing less-than-optimal designs/materials. In many cases they opt to pay out any resultant legal fees rather than spend more money (so they think- they might guess wrong on the potential problem, severity and or scope) on the product itself.
Yet, I see all sorts of cheap "Made in the USA" products...
I recall a time when this bashing was commonplace in the 70s with Japanese crap. I suspect we'd be a whole lot better off spending more time DOING than complaining(/bashing)...
And for every ONE garbage can that's put out by the "end-consumer," SEVEN more are put out as part of the original production process.
While I've been hauling a bunch of garbage (scrap metal and whatnot) from my (recently acquired) property I've had the thought that perhaps I should keep it, that it'll all be worth a LOT more come the time that it's too expensive to be digging new holes for obtaining mineral resources. Perhaps buying up cheap Chinese "elements" and storing them might not be a bad investment?
Garbage FTFW!
Them poor dumpster divers, pickings are getting thin.
Dumpster Diving!
Does this mean there will be fewer free meals, books, and other trashed merchandise too?
"Bankers in Dumpsters" sounding better all the time, let's put Jamie Dimon and Loyd Blankfein in one and bounce them from New York to L.A.
I hoard. It's a sickness.
One man's sickness is another's sanity... Really depends on what you're hoarding. And, who knows, as I stated above, it's quite possible that garbage dumps will one day be sought after (easier extraction of materials).
Maybe because to many americans have to live from garbage now.
It looks like the "Railroad Cars" picked up nicely in early 2010 - right around the time the 'Pink Slime' hit the news. Otherwise, whoa, that's some correlation.
The rate for loads of garbage is inversely proportional to the rate for messies.
One man gathers what another man spills...
I blame hoarders.
Got a link to the original data? The numbers don't make sense on the Y axis. What are they? thousands of tonnes, railcar loads per day/hour, loads per month at Podunk, Idaho or what?