Is This The Chart That Has Bernanke So Worried?

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier we described why it is clear that the Fed will need to print exponentially to fill the void of the crunch in consolidated credit money but why does Bernanke remain so hedged and guarded in his optimism when the market is tearing bears' arms-and-legs off and every talking head from here to Tokyo is claiming we have reached the nirvana of self-sustaining recovery (with, we note one such reconstituted deal-maker claiming "we don't need the Fed's help anyway" after the FOMC meeting). It's the data stupid. Simply put, as the chart below shows, the strength of trend of key US data over the past three months has been disappointing in aggregate (of course one can cherry pick BLS prints or sub-indices of ISM) and the worrying similarities between 2011 (when the same overshoot of optimism occurred) is only too real a problem for Ben and his buddies if they take away the Kool-Aid too early once again and let us drink our own stale sugar-free water. So the next time you hear some long-only asset manager or octogenarian wealth adviser say the 'data has been very strong' so buy-and-hold big-tech or dividend-payers, do them a favor and remind them of this chart and what happened last year.


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
infiniti's picture

Will EUR/USD break below 1.30 tonight? Will AUD/JPY break 88.50? What will Ben do to counter any relative strength in the Federal Reserve Note?

Harlequin001's picture

Print money, give it to the banks, banks buy stocks et voila, stock markets rise.

Stock markets stop rising, investors sell and buy commodities, stock markets crash, commodities shoot and hyperinflation is just a simple matter of opinion away.

Fuck it, I'm buying gold.

a growing concern's picture

Why don't we all band together and form ZH Bank?  Then we can get huge loans from the Fed at .5% and throw the cash into Treasuries at over 2%!  Or, we could put the Fed money into a bunch of gold bullion, buy insurance on the gold, and then have a "fishing accident" over the Marianas Trench with the gold on board.


So, how do we become a bank?  I'm looking at you, TDs.

Manthong's picture

Golly gee whiz..

I wonder if it is possible to figure out where QEII and then Operation Twist for here and Euro Swap for there happened on that chart.

All that Fake Fed Fiat to Feed a Fraud.  

4xaddict's picture

and the divergence between the ASX200 and the DAX30 and the divergence between the DOW and the Dow Transports and the divergence between Stocks and risk currencies and...... ad nauseum.

What hs been an orchestrated large fund move higher this year will also be an orchestrated move lower in correction.

I fail to see how anything can spook the market and create a wholesale stampede selloff when every major economy has been proven to immediately run their presses.

The only outliers out there at present are Japan going tits up in a ditch, China crashing, significant conflict in the ME or Weimar hyperinflation.


Given we are in an election year I think they are listed in order of likelihood until November at least. Large players know now that they are only going to make returns by coaxing money off the sidelines using oscillations rathen than an ECG style of price action and fool folks back into a buy n hold mentality. They have already been out shilling for the dividend paying stocks so it's obviously distribution season at the moment but Obama and the Bernanke are not going to let the Dow see 6k before an election. You can bank on that sans one of the possible exogenous events listed above.

Folks are going to quickly learn this year that by being a perma bear or perma bull you are being an ingnorant fuck tard. These markets are going to go sideways and the only thing that matters is timing.

resurger's picture

going side ways!

they dont even allow a correction, any red is not allowed, why?

Stock Pockets are so fucking huge, which is indicated in the chart above!

a small selloff will dip this mother fucker 5% or 6%

AldousHuxley's picture

poor bernank. inherited green span's fuck ups.


bernanke should do a gregg smith and resign from the Fed after massive deflation. banksters will be out of business, homes would be cheaper, and politicians will be run over by mad mobs who won't have the easy credit to hold them up to decency.

Stoploss's picture

That smacks of capitalism. WE WILL HAVE NONE OF THAT.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Seems like I read somewhere there is $3.6 trillon hole to fill!

To quote the late great Slim Pickins - "Somebody go back and get a shit load of dimes!"

espirit's picture

Even the basic fundamentals don't matter anymore, or analysis as evidenced by the ramp and run outside the upper bollinger band.

Rainbow skittles, kool-aid, hopium, ad nauseum.

Gimme that blue pill.

spiral_eyes's picture

s&p is decoupling from reality. it's the new normal! things are different this time! central planning triumphs again!

or, not.

Likstane's picture

You shouldn't joke about having a fishing "accident."  There are quite a large number of people here on ZH who really have had their stashes fall into the ocean or sea or river or lake.  I would hope someone who is at least a little familiar with the ZH crowd would be more sensitive regarding their folly.  I myself having experienced such misfortune am not amused with your callous indifference.



Likstane's picture

I almost forgot; you are corrupt.

andrewp111's picture

Your "fishing accident" idea reminds me of the story of the Brit who took his billions with him (and cheated Her Majesty's Taxman) by having his coffin made of solid platinum and then buried at sea over the Marianas Trench.

mortiis's picture

seriously... how do we start our own bank?

Ruffcut's picture

Go to bed with the fed, buy abunch of politicians and forego any morals you have or ever had.

Kennedy didn't go to bed with fed and got shot in the head. splattered.

Maybe a zeroheadge credit union, but more regulations need to be heeded and would be a tuff and ruff road. Dipshit dodd and buttfuck barney bill only applies to peons.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Come on... the FED didn't kill Kennedy... the Honorable Arlen Spector told us it was that magic bullet.

Surely he wouldn't lie about something as important as that.

mkkby's picture

Just being a bank won't do.  You have to be a prinary dealer, which requires Rothschild ownership.  Nice try though.

vast-dom's picture

We are still bothering to look at stinkin charts like reality and funduhmentals have anything to do with hopium delusion fueled markets? Come on Ty! All is farce. The center held...for now...

JohnSilent's picture

Good things come to those who wait...  unless you're Buffett with a port of sold naked puts.

nestle's picture

who cares about fundamental!?

We got AAPL, CB, and big daddy FED (waiting for his term to juice)

Shit is going to the Moon!

Newt will be our governor there!!

urbanelf's picture

OK, I'll be the first to admit that I'm stupid.  What is "US Trend Data Index(1)"?

a growing concern's picture

Let's just say it's representative of "reality".  And then we'll just say that S&P 500 is representative of "Icharus".  All clear?

JPM Hater001's picture

Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's sample, it would be a Twinkie... thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

#winning - if only there was a +10 vote button. That really is one

ebworthen's picture

Yes, the Wells Fargo Advisors and "now is the time to invest" commercials are going viral on T.V. and online.

I've been hearing the "take out a home or auto loan today" commercials too.

Reflating the bubble part deux, tres, who knows - just as long as they get more retail money in there so they can re-distribute wealth all over again.

Even if a large % of the retirees, pensioners, and retail crowd go to bonds and munis CONgress will wait until after the election and slip in some dandy new taxes and withdrawal penalties to make certain it doesn't leave the market prison.

The Navigator's picture

You got that right - there's no place to put your money to make money, pay the taxes on the growth, and come out ahead.

PM's, yes - but risky when you consider the guvmint may soon shut off that avenue (i.e. register to buy or sell PM's)

Stock market casino - not with my money.

Bonds - hard to decide, US @ 0% or Greek bonds @ 1,000+%, both about the same risk, and liklihood of seeing returns abou the same (0%)

For now, just PM's in a safe, guarded by dogs and shotguns, hoping no new legistlation requiring registration of the PM's (dogs and shotguns require registration, sorry for the non-compliance of those 2 on my part).

q99x2's picture

The Fed upgraded its PPT since last year. We may have further to go. Or worse it might not matter at all because the bankers are going in for the kill this time.

Essential Nexus's picture

Does anyone have any suggestions for what website I could go to in order to get the knowledge to get the full benefit from these articles?  This article wasn't tough, but some others get complicated in the first sentence and show indexes I've never heard of.

Thank you for your help.

Tuffmug's picture

Just keep reading and you'll catch up in no time. There are many bright minds posting here and explaining things. Also might try a few of the Zero Hedge reads on the left. My fav is Jesse and he has daily links to some very good articles and blog posts.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

you signed up six weeks ago and you've been posting about 1 week

you say this about yourself: Just trying to learn as much as I can before investing.

you're not spending enuf time and focus here;  and you can't be in a hurry;  new ideas take time to be chewed and digested

what the hell you do you with all your money i don't care;  just try to hang onto it until you learn more about it b/c "money doesn't come with directions"

you can begin here, but this isn't for beginners.  this is for fighters

so either get in or get out, but get off the fuking fence!

Deo vindice's picture

Well one thing Essential just learned ...

You better have thick skin if you ask a question.

msamour's picture

I've been reading ZH for 3 years, but I just got an account last year so I could reply to some Jerk. I am probably one of many that are sitting on the fence. It is quite large, and comfortable at this point in time. I don't have any money to invest, so I invest in knowledge, supplies, and ammunition. When the time comes, I won't need money, or a ROI. I will put my neighbours in my freezer, and I'll live off of that. From where I am sitting on the fence, you are looking pretty tasty. Fight club indeed...

slewie the pi-rat's picture


another toy-boy pretending to have lotsa "ammo"

The Navigator's picture


Fuck the fight club bull shit - I come here to learn; I'm trying to learn what Tyler is posting and what ZH'ers are saying about it. Most times, I learn more reading the comments.

So lighten up - we all started here with Zero Knowledge.


slewie the pi-rat's picture

no, fuk YOU!

you are talking outa yer ass, as usual;  we are born w/ zer0 knowledge;  here, yes, some can learn if they have not been taught not to, which is far more prevalent than most suspect

since you don't understand the psychological dynamics of fightClub and why they are important, you little cunts just turn this place into a pre-school or la social venue to kiss tyler's ass and pretend you are "learning"

but for some shitforbrained moron to ask where else he can go to understand tyler et al is just weak trolling, i don't give a fuk what 300 trolls "think"

or you either, you puddin-headed retard!

PrinceDraxx's picture

Slewie is dumber than when he first came here. What a troll he is today.

mkkby's picture

No, he's not.  I'll be a LITTLE nicer to the dumb ass newbies. 

Do your own research.  You should be able to google anything and get answers.  There is a long list of blogs in the left hand margin.  If you come here claiming to want to learn, but expecting to be spoon fed like a child, you will get flamed.  And rightly so. 

Grow the fuck up.  Post questions and comments when you can be intelligent, not just helpless.

Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Slewie, if you remember correctly in Fight Club they where also a community that helped each other. If somebody needs help understanding then it is incumbent upon us to help and educate. What they do with that is then up to them. I posted the index composites below.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

go play with million-dollarCunt, you asswipe troll

how the fuk are ya gonna "help" somebody here when you won't lift a finger to protect the site from string-jumpers, but instead encourage their "behavior"?

this twerp was asking where ELSE he could go to 'get up to speed'

so i gave him the required gut-check; do it here or don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out

this, of course, makes gutless wonders appear like cockroaches when the lights go down, with testimonials about how "smart" they are getting by "blogging" here and being nice to the trolls, airheads, and disinfo types like yourself who are quick to post "data" and then sneer at lesser beings who do not worship mammon as "successfully" as yourself

personally, i tell these children here to learn to stand on their own two feet and think for themselves;  then i push them on their fat asses

and to stop pretending that "making money" is proof that one can do so

more frequently it indocates that you can not do so

if a man hasn't learned to stand as a man, he needs to be encouraged to get offa momma's backyard fence and start trusting his own perceptions and thought;  no matter how fuked up he has "learned to be"

since very few appreciate the "psychodynamics of selfhood" which is the actual "story" of  "fightClub", most simply have learned to pretend they are still capable of "learning" or they know how to "teach" others, to "help" them

so, i tried to wake the kid up, docSvengali;  tell him he's in charge of himself, win or lose;  he doesn't need more ideas from "elsewhere" to try to pack or re-pack between his ears at this point, whether you can see that or not

other, while junking me, are kind enuf to write a few words to coddle the misshapen thing

fuking douchnozzle morons!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

here, styooooipid: 

Does anyone have any suggestions for what website I could go to in order to get the knowledge to get the full benefit from these articles?  This article wasn't tough, but some others get complicated in the first sentence and show indexes I've never heard of.

Thank you for your help.

this is the guy's actual post, ok, mrNew&Knows-it-all

YOU take some TIME and answer him according to what YOU think he might actually need, here, ok?

we eat shitheads like you for breakfast and spit out your ancient "pharonic" bones as tasteless and without marrow, btw

but, please, offer something to the other new asswipe, ok?

that FACT that you have nothing to offer hasn't stopped you, yet

and, btw, how do YOU plan on dealing with that little, tiny, yet obvious deficiency?  not having anything to offer here?  why don't you just leave, too?

re-read you own posts on the way out, toy-boy!  Ar-Pharazôn | ZeroHedge

here's one from 3 hours ago!: 

maybe a fuck! sorry ;)

 chf is for Switzerland and nobody else :P

what a clueless fuking moronic shitheaded little toy-boy asswipe troll!

PrinceDraxx's picture

Slewie, shut the fuck up! You are acting like a gold plated douche bag today. Sit in the corner, beat your meat or whatever it is that you do when not suffering from diarrhea of the mouth transmitted through your keyboard.

Better_late_than_never's picture

Just go buy silver bullion and don't read this stuff. It will give you nightmares. Why, oh why, didn't I take the blue pill. 

UP Forester's picture

Cuz then the pink slime you're eating would still taste like steak, and not pink slime.  Or chicken.

Dr. Engali's picture

Do you know what tasty wheat tastes like?

slewie the pi-rat's picture

he can't think for himself, yet

he doesn't need to be told what to do, as he wonders what to do, even where to turn

he needs to be allowed (yes allowed!) to trust himself, even to make mistakes, which he will then begin to learn from

it is like a styooopid game show where he can take a first step in any direction

but he must choose which step to take, himself

this is, apparently, a completely new idea to many people?  well, ok;  but please consider it, carefully, if you have not done so before...

given most "upbringing", this is a revolutionary idea to many highly-conditioned mommy-minds