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Chart Of The Week: This Is Who Is Selling

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we have pointed out before, the ongoing market tension is so palpable it can be cut with a knife. As a reminder, institutional investors are now about as "all in" as they can be, spinning narratives about economic growth, housing bottom, and general improvement (despite all facts to the contrary), while waiting for one simple thing: to get retail investors buying again. Because unless the Fed or ECB pumps another trillion or so in new liquidity there is simply no new purchasing money. However, as we have shown time and again, retail investors have had it with stocks, and are dumping domestic equity funds hand over fist despite the near vertical equity ramp fest, while money going into ETFs, that traditional straw man used by fund flow apologists, has been going almost exclusively into bond-related vehicles. Yet one group of investors has not been waiting to find out which way this temporary stalemate will end (because either the buyers' money will end first, or retail will throw in the towel and after a 20% artificial, liquidity-driven move to the upside will capitulate and become the latest bagholder). That group is corporate insiders: the people who know the fundamental prospects of their companies better than anyone, and certainly better than the propaganda media or the always wrong Wall Street sell side analyst brigade. And as the chart below demonstrates, insiders are now out and selling in record quantities.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:03 | 2307625 donsluck
donsluck's picture

SELL!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:18 | 2307650 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Probably just the founders of Groupon and LinkedIn cashing out.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:34 | 2307682 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I know what is happening.

They are freeing up money for the FaceHook EyePeeO.

feels like Facebook is the Final Ponzi Hogfest. So Secret.

ori

/chilling-silence-from-san-onofre

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:38 | 2307702 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Insiders are selling at a 8-1 pace.  Normal is 2-1.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:54 | 2307733 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

What are you even comparing?

Insider selling will always be much larger than insider buying since most firm's allocated bonuses are in the form of stock options.

How does an executive get his payout? By selling.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:58 | 2307742 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

But if they believed in equities, they would be diversifying into other equities, offsetting the sell chart. They are taking their money and going to other markets. The comparison has value.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:30 | 2307799 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

What??

Unless theyre a board member of the other company, then NO, this would NOT offset the chart. Insiders, remember.

Its the kind of (non-) thinking you've demonstrated which just goes to show how easy it is to confused the masses.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:50 | 2307832 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

How is it that Sean has a +6?! People, Zero is right. The main point of the post "Who Is Selling" is showing us Insiders (i.e. people who are executives and high level employees) are selling into the market rally as the Bob Doll's of the world continue to pimp equities to retail. These are people filing with the SEC to sell. There is NO WAY IN HELL their buying other stocks in the broad market would offset the chart... fuck, that's not even the point anyway. Get educated about this shit before posting a comment.  

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:01 | 2308167 economics9698
economics9698's picture

You win the fight.  Next.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:16 | 2307860 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

 "The inside Track, Commentary: Corporate insiders are betting this is a correction," which suggests that insiders are taking a renewed interest in buying shares of their stock.

One of the most bearish omens on Wall Street is for corporate insiders, in the face of a market decline, to accelerate the selling of their companies’ shares.

That would mean that they have no confidence that those shares will recover any time soon and have decided to unload their shares, even at depressed prices.

That’s why analysts have been paying close attention to insider behavior since the stock market began correcting in mid January.

Fortunately for the bulls, they did not sell more stock into that decline. On the contrary, recently released data show that insiders have not only cut back on their selling, but also increased the pace of their buying.

This suggests that they believe that their companies’ shares will soon be going back up in price…

For the week ending Jan. 15, for example, which was the week in which the stock market hit its high, this sell-to-buy ratio was 5.15-to-1, which meant that insiders that week were selling more than five shares for every one that they were purchasing.

For the week ending Feb. 12, in contrast, according to the latest issue of Vickers Weekly Insider Report, the ratio was less than half as high, at 2.42-to-1.

Because of this marked improvement in the sell-to-buy ratio, David Coleman, Vickers editor, views "the recent downturn as likely being only a near-term correction. We remain cautious, but are increasingly optimistic about the future performance of the overall markets."

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:34 | 2307892 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Thank you for regurgitating the ever-bullish propaganda from Marketwatch on our hallowed ZH pages.... GREAT.. ancient February data. Do you know what the date is today? Did you expand the chart Tyler put up?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:44 | 2307914 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Seeking Alpha. The post answers a response with a valid example. Can you do the same or just post insults?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:02 | 2308038 Western
Western's picture

Thank you for regurgitating the ever-bullish propaganda from Marketwatch on our hallowed ZH pages.... GREAT.. ancient February data. Do you know what the date is today? Did you expand the chart Tyler put up?

 

...hmmm, nope no insult there.

 

the only thing close might be "regurgitation", and even then.. lol

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:18 | 2308051 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Yes, with research from a scholarly article:

We examine insider trading activities of all companies traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq during the 1975-1995 period. In general, very little market movement is observed when insiders trade and when they report their trades to the SEC. Insiders in aggregate are contrarian investors. However, they predict market movements better than simple contrarian strategies. Insiders also seem to be able to predict cross-sectional stock returns. The result, however, is driven by insider's ability to predict returns in smaller firms. In addition, informativeness of insiders' activities is coming from purchases, while insider selling appears to have no predictive ability.

 

Link http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/1/79.short

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:45 | 2308222 sitenine
sitenine's picture

I call irrelevant.  That was written in 2001 - before CDS even existed, before the sheople woke up to the housing bubble, before the now famous market meltdown, before technocrats, before QE infinity...  I believe you can do better than that zero.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:40 | 2308139 Kayman
Kayman's picture

ZeroPower

If you are selling your shares, then you believe they are worth more in today's cash, than tomorrow's capital gain.  Your argument is all sound.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:09 | 2308640 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Sound as in "well-established" or sound as in "noise?"

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:25 | 2307873 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Insiders in a Ponzi win by getting out of town before the pitchforks show up at their doors.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:44 | 2308081 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

at the market high

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 06:55 | 2309095 defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture

And just who is buying? Wait for it .... the same companies whose insiders are selling! hahahahahahha

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:57 | 2308160 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh, you mean that SitOnMyFacebook?!?!
Where you get to vote like or dislike your STD's?
My scab's bigger then you scab?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:11 | 2308191 max2205
max2205's picture

Every buyer there a seller. Not until they ban naked shorts and naked longs. Yes there are naked longs too that didn't buy from anyone.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:02 | 2308239 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

A 'naked long' is a foreign concept for me unless you are simply talking about a derivative.  WTF? Like if a market maker cannot secure the shares of something illiquid but sells them to you and becomes short?

Also how is this nefarious?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:14 | 2308332 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

it's Farcebook

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:03 | 2307942 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

GRPN is having a half off sale soon!  They'll make it up in volume ;)

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:30 | 2307996 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

U forgot Salesforce.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:27 | 2307661 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The relationship between insider selling and the indexes has been anything but correlated for a while now, in what are obviously rigged markets. Draw your own conclusions about the whys and hows. Do I think this is normal and sustainable? Hell no. I think we are now in one of the biggest equity bubbles in history (that happens to coincide with one of the biggest simultaneous bond bubbles; that's a neat trick, and tells one just how massively distorted and broken markets are, thanks to unprecedented central fractional reserve bankster fiat games).

 

On another subject:  In Britain, V For Vendetta/1984 isn't just fiction anymore, but reality, officially admitted by the British Government. All the searches, texts, emails, phone calls and any other communications of British Citizens are now available in real time, with identifiable personal information, without any requirement for a warrant or any other restriction, to the government. This is already in place in China, Russia, The United States (even if denied), so happy surfing everyone! You're now presumed guilty and subject to bein surveiled at all times and without any need for cause:

 

UK 'to announce' real-time phone, email, Web traffic monitoring

By | April 1, 2012, 3:35am PDT

Summary: UK government plans to allow the intelligence services analyse call, email and Web traffic in “real-time” could be announced by the Queen as early as May.

Editors note: Despite this being April 1, or ‘April Fools Day’, this story is not a fabrication nor a joke. For background to this story, head this way.

Under new UK legislation, Internet service and broadband providers will be obligated to pass personal browsing, email and call data to the intelligence services for real-time processing.

 

“Internet firms” could also include social networks and search engines, such as Facebook, Twitter, and Google — all of which have a presence in the UK — along with broadband providers. Access to ISP logs will be opened up to the government on-demand.

 

New snooping law to allow Government access to everybody's emails, texts, and ...
  • Daily Mail - ‎37 minutes ago‎

By Lyle Brennan

Major changes to surveillance laws are to give the Government the power to monitor email exchanges and website visits of every person in the UK. The new legislation is expected to be announced in the Queen's Speech next month.

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:41 | 2307707 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Not to pick a fight, but...

The relationship between insider selling and the indexes has been anything but correlated for a while now,

Looks to me on the above chart that since 2010, a peak in IS like this precedes a big selloff by about 2-6 months.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:29 | 2307757 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Your caveat was unnecessary; 'tis Fight Club.

I have seen inflow/outflow and insider buying/selling charts posted here and elsewhere (TrimTabs has been posting much of the data) for YEARS (not months) now, whereby the ratios have been historically out of whack. We are talking ratios of 200+ shares of stock held by insiders sold for every one share purchased, etc. more than a year ago (I believe there was an all time high reached in this ratio of 385 to 1 back sometime in late 2010 or early 2011), and the markets have continued upwards, a few pullbacks included.

Do I think this will continue?

No.

Do I think it could continue for at least moderately longer?

Sure.

Do I want to try and time it, throwing good money down on my prospects of being able to gain some of what might be a continued upward gain in already insanely stretched valuations, thinking that I can get out before one or many of those "it blew right through the stops and gapped down 20% or 30% before the 'market makers' caught my loss bid" days revisits us?

HELL NO.

I personally think that there really is demand destruction in the real economy taking place right now thanks to many factors, including the loose, pedal to the metal monetary policies of central bankers, and that the deficit spending to the sky days will be necessarily limited, and that we're closer to the when moment now than we were two or three years ago.

I think that the real objective is to keep everything from literally falling apart at the seams before November, if they're able to pull if off (which is a big if).

I am certain we are going to experience one of the biggest meltdowns in risk assets in history shortly, and moreover, I am certain that we are going to experience one of the biggest meltdowns in formerly thought to be risk-off bond markets shortly, since both are trading at levels only made possible by an additional trillions of central bank fiat flooding the globe in the last three years.

I am unsure as to whether these two periods will intersect, and if they do, what that will look like precisely. If they do, and the more they overlap, it will be a generational event.

I have never been more certain we're on the cusp of historic economic (and maybe political) degradation, that those with eyes and ears open, using critical analysis, can already see it happening and setting in, despite the misleading (some would argue propagandist) MSM headlines, and that there's an ominous, outsized event that lay ahead (even if I or one can't describe what it will look like or what shape it will form, nor its precise consequences) that is at least equal to the outsized manipulation and distortion caused by central fractional reserve bank monetary policy and outsized government regulatory and fiscal policy missteps, in the aggregrate, of the last 30 years.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:53 | 2307835 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I don't trade (anymore).  But I follow stocks because a big selloff in them usually coincides with a dollar rally, and subsequent PM buying opportunity.

It's all the same trade, but having a time frame helps.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:58 | 2307940 css1971
css1971's picture

I don't see how stock and bonds can both melt down simultaneously. Bonds are much bigger, when they go, everything else will take off like a rocket... (we may well be seeing the end of the bond bubble right now) in nominal terms. In reality it's nothing more than inflation, hard assets will be the real things to hold.

Oh and it will take longer than everyone thinks. Years.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:05 | 2307944 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

I don't see how stock and bonds can both melt down simultaneously.

Easy, the money can go into 1. Cash, 2. Extinguish debt, 3. RE or my favorite, 4. Commodities.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 09:47 | 2326020 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

It's easy for stocks and bonds to plummet simultaneously--it just happened in Europe. It happens when artifically pumped-up bond values collapse; the bonds are dumped at big losses, and there is no resultant tidal wave of cash to lift stocks.

If you pull the plug in your bathtub, does the water level rise in your toilet?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:12 | 2307956 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

css1971

 

First, stocks and bonds can melt down simultaneously if the great margin wave washes over the 'investors,' given the leverage in the system, and that liquidity has to be raised from every asset class in order to pay Mr. Margin, who waits for no one.

Second, I have no idea as to that which I referred to as an ominous cloud on the horizon (not some ubiquitous notion, but something that facts and data can highlight as being probabilistic) will lead to a precipitous drop off a cliff's edge or a slow spiral into the chasm (given the greater depths, lengths and size of the interference with normal market mechanisms that central planners have used - blowing bubbles for 30+ years now to keep the house of cards from collapsing, I'm inclined to go with a boil of the frogs scenario, because they're going to lose control).

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:35 | 2308006 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Even the Main stream idiots Friday on CNBS were admitting as the bond market was selling off that the money was not going into equities. They said it was going to cash. PM's were also up.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:37 | 2308286 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[I'm inclined to go with a boil of the frogs scenario...]---TruthInSunshine

Is it getting hot in here...?

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:50 | 2307830 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Looks likes every time the fed announces a new print fest insiders dump stocks hand over fist in ever larger amounts into the feds coat tails. The question is if this is all by design. Are the .01%'ers owning/controlling/using the fed to escape the collapse of the USA ?  Watch gold for further clues.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:39 | 2308073 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

I am not sure that's right as I think that Bernanke's wet dream is to get the masses to buy stocks and houses.

Sat, 04/14/2012 - 19:52 | 2345848 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That's just a means to an end.

You come to me without 'why' ?

http://youtu.be/E_PFZ92dMys?t=5m10s

The end is the bankruptcy of the lower classes & the expanding influence of the ruling class. Whatever else may happen in the middle, from parasitic enrichment to civil wars, is of no consequence to the mobile global elite who are always very well armed with every itinerary stop very well stocked.

It is the centuries-long dance.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:43 | 2307711 espirit
espirit's picture

No doubt these markets are broken.  Consider what companies are doing with the hoards of cash stashed, it's not expansion but stock buybacks thus to keep the the liquidity ponzi going.  Distribution to executives and subsequent sale of shares keeps the circle jerk intact, and provides hopium to the average investor class.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:10 | 2307762 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

TruthInSunshine said:

On another subject:  In Britain, V For Vendetta/1984 isn't just fiction anymore, but reality, officially admitted by the British Government. All the searches, texts, emails, phone calls and any other communications of British Citizens are now available in real time, with identifiable personal information, without any requirement for a warrant or any other restriction, to the government. This is already in place in China, Russia, The United States (even if denied), so happy surfing everyone!

Dependence upon technology always brings unintended consequences and unanticipated vulnerabilities. I look forward to the development of the online/digital equivalent to Gatso vandalism:

http://www.speedcam.co.uk/gatso2.htm

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2307851 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

One day the people serving Satan will wake up to understand who they serve and why. It just takes time and then they will have a choice.

I cannot blame someone who is clueless, no more than I can blame a puppy dog or a kitty. However, with knowledge comes responsibility and a choice that MUST be made.

There is no going back to ignorance.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2307863 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Here's another example of what's becoming daily drivel reflecting how desperate the financial/Wall Street Ponzi is to get retail suckered into the game: 

For stocks, a stable and impressive climb in 2012

The Associated Press‎ - 1 day ago

"I don't think anyone could have predicted this," says Chip Cobb, a senior vice president at Bryn Mawr Trust Asset Management. For these gains, he says, "I thought it would take all year."

The jump gives money managers like Cobb hope that ordinary folks burned by two deep bear markets in a decade will start buying again, propelling the indexes even higher.

In a remarkable act of self-restraint — or foolishness, depending on your view — they have mostly stayed out of the market. One reason they may jump in now is that fear of looming disasters, like a full-blown debt crisis in Europe or a second recession in the United States, has faded.

 

1)  "Ordinary folks"  - who according to the writer's own quote "have been burned by two deep bear markets in a decade" - are foolish to avoid what is clear as being a total and complete Ponzi. Epic.

2) The looming disasters of a full-blown debt crisis in Europe or a second recession (let alone Depression) in the United States have faded. ORLY?  Epic again, FTMFW.

I could propagandize far better than this horseshit. Where do they pick these scab writers up? 

 

STOCKS AT NOMINAL LEVELS OF 14 YEARS AGO & 40% LOWER IN REAL TERMS [NOT INCLUDING MASSIVE LOSSES DUE TO SURVIVORSHIP BIAS OF STOCKS THAT WENT TO $0 - E.G. GM - AND INDEX RE-JIGGERING], AND JUST COMPLETED ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEAR MARKET RALLIES ON A BUBBLE-LICIOUS BERNANKE PRINT-A-THON OF FIATSKI IN HISTORY, SO JUMP ON IN, BECAUSE IT'S A PERFECT TIME TO TAKE AND BE TAKEN FOR A PLUNGE, BITCHEZ.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:39 | 2308009 nothing can go wrogn
nothing can go wrogn's picture

They're trying to lure the muppets back in to the honeypot. It's not working though.

It must be driving them mad! A few short years ago all it took was some simple market cheerleading to unload a bunch of shit.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:13 | 2307966 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Opt out from the monitoring.

http://vpnreviewz.com/

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2308026 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

THANKS for the link

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:56 | 2308432 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

ahhahahhahhahahhhahHAH!!

that you managed to work this gem of a website into this particular thread just exposes the genius that you are:

This closeup shows it was burnt to a crisp.

UPDATE - Like all vandalised Gatsos in the area it was replaced shortly afterwards but the new camera has since been blown up using dynamite, see below.

several shades of brilliant this is - thanks!!!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:24 | 2307869 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Plus if they suspect anything about you they can listen to you through your cellphone even when you are not making a call.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:45 | 2308017 harmonymonkey
harmonymonkey's picture

 Incredible.  Can you provide a source?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2308030 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

common knowledge; no source required (except maybe for microscopic technical details)

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:31 | 2308062 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

If the normal "stooge" can get all this gear, what do TPTB have at their fingertips?

http://www.brickhousesecurity.com/

 

The CIA [aren't they limited by law to only spying "outside" the USA?] has just bragged they will be watching you using your own appliances, including TV, dishwasher, fridge, radio etc. Many cases ALREADY of built in cameras on netbooks and other mobile devices being used to spy on the user.

Sat, 04/14/2012 - 19:35 | 2345835 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/cell-phone-spying-software-leads-cyberstalking...

http://www.geeksaresexy.net/2008/05/05/cell-phone-spying-is-your-life-be...

My own phone's been used for a ghost-call out. It sure wasn't a "pocket-dial" because it's a flip-phone & was locked. Software hooks allowed an out-going call to be made which induced a cross-border call which of course is then fully legit for analysis. Not that there's anything overly interesting, I can imagine it was to confirm connection on both ends & location of both phones. There's a good reason for it, given the context I'm aware of, but it goes to show that the software is there.

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:12 | 2308047 css1971
css1971's picture

The relationship between insider selling and the indexes has been anything but correlated for a while now

I see a correlation btw. Insider selling peaks. 3 months later the indexes drop.

 

Sat, 04/14/2012 - 19:24 | 2345818 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I see it too.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:58 | 2307843 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I would ... but ... I don't own any to sell.

I've been putting my money in to angel venture capital deals for the past 3 years.  I want to be able to look the president of my companies in the face and look at the books.

I want no part of Wall Street.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:35 | 2308004 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Exactly. Just remember the stock broker's motto: "let your money and my experience become my money and your experience."

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:04 | 2307626 Slartebartfast
Slartebartfast's picture

Time to dump the market and squeeze the rock again for yet another bucket of ponzi water!!!!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2307849 optiondude
optiondude's picture

Or, trade a product where it doesn't really matter which way the market goes. As a bearish type I like being able to easily trade on any ideas I may have.
tradesmarter is offering a 100% deposit bonus for april fools day. Kinda crazy but I suppose they get enough gambler types throwing their money away for it to be worth giving out such a large bonus. I treat options with the respect they deserve and as a result, I do quite well. Many do lose their asses though lol

Cheers!

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:04 | 2307627 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Pump... complete Dump... processing... processing...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2307632 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

Gekko is selling

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2307633 vmromk
vmromk's picture

No fear, the SCUMBAG Bernanke has got a printing press running 24/7.

Stocks only move in the direction that the head SCUMBAG at the "Federal Reserve" mandates.

 

FUCK YOU, Bernanke.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:03 | 2308175 Kayman
Kayman's picture

There's a rumor that the guy that supplies parts for the printer will only take gold as payment.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:09 | 2307634 toady
toady's picture

SELL SELL SELL!

err...

BUY BUY BUY!

err...

Nevermind.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:21 | 2307638 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I no longer hear that clinking noise (of fake fed dollars) that drives the roller coaster to the top...wonder what comes next??

Maybe 1930?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:12 | 2307639 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The hedge fund implosion will be epic.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:23 | 2307662 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Aside from AAPL being a hedge fund hotel, the majority of large + mid cap retail mutual funds allow AAPL to occupy 6%+ of total holdings... Epic really is the right word to use.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:49 | 2307724 jcaz
jcaz's picture

....Or not.

Net short 80% plus for three months here;

Patiently waiting......

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:12 | 2307641 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Insiders selling to goyim taxpayers...

Whocoodanode?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:16 | 2307644 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Very good point that 'market tension can be cut with a knife'.  The level of disbelief of this rally exceeds that of the nasdaq run to 5000. 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:17 | 2307645 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Come on it's a generational buying opportunity!?!?!

Insiders aren't even waiting for the rally to run out of gas, what does that tell you?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:24 | 2307669 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Get out while the getten's good!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:18 | 2307679 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Yeah, before the institutional shitheads panic cause there's no panic like an institutional shithead panic.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:02 | 2307813 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+1

This.

 

I'm more bearish now for two simple reasons:  1)  The earnings and 'cash' on balance sheets of publicly traded corporations are mainly the product of EZ money from central banks - (i.e. whatever private/public sector demand is driving their growth or stemming their declines in revenue is b/c of EZ fiat; and whatever 'cash' they've accrued is the result of low yields because of ZIRP as they sell historically low yield bonds, aka debt).  2)  Institutional investors, who are the real dumb money, the likes of which are calPERs and such, are pretty much 'all in' now.

calPERs is about as dumb as money gets.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:43 | 2308712 ekm
ekm's picture

Quite interesting.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:06 | 2308181 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Time to dust off Hank Paulson.  "I gots ta tell yas, the sky is falling this time ! "

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:30 | 2307680 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think many remember what the price was when they were forced to sell 3 years ago and now will not re buy into the Market 300% higher than they sold.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:17 | 2307647 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   Like the man says: don`t get mad, get even....sell paper and buy physical!    Dow 9k before month end!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:21 | 2307657 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Now, this must be a joke.  Tell ya what Alfred, keep this post and explain your failure on May 1.  You will not be proven correct.

If you're just being sarcastic, I apologize.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:44 | 2307716 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

He'll be fine if he holds 'till 2013.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:20 | 2307653 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Now, look who is hiring:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-economy-hiring-collegebre83007n-20120401,0,3188216.story

I am having a tough time hanging in with the ZH view of the world ending, living off the grid, hyperinflation and such.  I live in the real world and in my world, things are busy as all get out.  Roads are clogged, stores and restaurants are packed and even the gas stations have long lines.  I just don't see anyone struggling to get along out there except for the normal number of homeless bums begging for booze on the street corner.

I can appreciate the ZH approach; highly technical analysis of monetary policies and governmental activities.  But the conclusion that things are going to fail has been repeated endlessly since at least 2009, yet no collapse comes.  If you're honest, you will admit that what happened in Greece wasn't the ZH prediction.  At first, blood would flow, the EU would collapse  and the CDS situation would bring down the banks.  Of course none of that happened, so it is on the Spain.  I doubt anything will come of that so what's next; Italy will spell the end.

Look, things are getting better whether an Obama hater such as myself likes it or not.  Unemployment is no problem for those with an education and I see that on a personal basis every day.  Housing accelerated up then accelerated down and now, it is just a regional thing in terms of recovery.  But I see nothing that says I should be fearful of tomorrow.  Even the middle east, for all the noise, is no different that it has been since the 70's, except that there are actually fewer wars at the current moment.  I have very expectation that the staus quo will continue in that region as well.

As for the market, I think ZH has been dead on the money.  Can't go anywhere but up, with minor dips along the way, as long as the federal reserve is intent on keeping the market up and interest rates low.  Not rocket science.

So, ZH is good for "accounting porn" but the conclusions based on the research is usually just palin wrong.  I love reading this site but I have no confidence in Tyler's ability to extrapolate future activites based on an analysis of current events.  Just doesn't seem to have the "prediction" game down quite yet.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:26 | 2307672 Spacemoose
Spacemoose's picture

1. you obviously do not live in california. 

2. old saying: "better a year early than a day late".

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:39 | 2307705 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Nor in rural Illinois.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:07 | 2307758 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

NV housing still sucks but yesterday I was discussing things with a guy from OK. According to him all is well, housing never went up so it never came down. Folks are happy in their minimum wages jobs and 'hiring signs are out everywhere.

I too recognize Tyler hasn't called the big one yet but I became hopelessly addicted to 'accounting porn' when I realized that the Federal government will never pay it's debts...so I will continue reading ZH.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:21 | 2307780 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And that seems to be the key. What set off the doomsayers was their vision of the US govt defaulting on its debt. That day inches closer and nothing has altered the basis for the doomer's view. 2013, here we come!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2307820 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

"Consider the following numbers: 2.2, 62.8, 454, 5.9. Drawing a blank? Not to worry. They don’t mean much on their own.

Now consider them in context:

1) 2.2 percent is the average interest rate on the U.S. Treasury’s marketable and non-marketable debt (February data).

2) 62.8 months is the average maturity of the Treasury’s marketable debt (fourth quarter 2011).

3) $454 billion is the interest expense on publicly held debt in fiscal 2011, which ended Sept. 30.

4) $5.9 trillion is the amount of debt coming due in the next five years.

For the moment, Nos. 1 and 2 are helping No. 3 and creating a big problem for No. 4. Unless Treasury does something about No. 2, Nos. 1 and 3 will become liabilities while No. 4 has the potential to provoke a crisis.

In plain English, the Treasury’s reliance on short-term financing serves a dual purpose, neither of which is beneficial in the long run. First, it helps conceal the depth of the nation’s structural imbalances: the difference between what it spends and what it collects in taxes. Second, it puts the U.S. in the precarious position of having to roll over 71 percent of its privately held marketable debt in the next five years -- probably at higher interest rates.

First Among Equals

And that’s a problem. The U.S. is more dependent on short- term funding than many of Europe’s highly indebted countries, including Greece, Spain and Portugal..."

Four Numbers Add Up to an American Debt Disaster

Bloomberg‎ - 3 days ago
Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:54 | 2307930 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

@TIS

The key take away?

71% of debt to renew within 60 months time. 2017 is not that far away!

The big unknown is ~ How much debt will be added on top, within this next 60 months?

Just a 1% raise in interest rates would be a catastrophe. Look for endless ZIRP.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:17 | 2307858 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"Folks are happy in their minimum wages jobs..."

You forgot to emphasise that part. There are plenty of minimum wage jobs here and that's about it.

The "good" jobs amount to government and oil. Not exactly winning the future.

There are several empty and half finished McMansion subdivisions around Norman. I don't know where your acquaintance is from.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:33 | 2307885 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

There's still a couple of ghost town housing developments in my neck of the woods-SE PA, due to the layoffs at the huge drug companies nearby but there seems to be plenty of people spending in the bars and restaurants although not in the speciality shops-many remain closed. I'm seeing more American-looking folks doing construction and landscape work even though a Mexican crew put up a roof on a house nearby last week but it appears that many Mexicans have went somewhere else.  

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:01 | 2307941 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I made a comment on ZH two or three mornings ago just after I had concluded a phone call with a mortgage broker whom I know (and who actually gives me real time facts relevant to mortgage applications, cash/investor vs financed buyer data, refis vs. orginating mortages, etc.), and I swear that this subject came up and that even Mexican trades/laborers (I don't care what one's politics are, if you are in the construction business you will not argue the FACT that when it comes to cement, masonry, drywall, or almost any other subcontracting work, Mexicans work harder and do better work for less money than Americans; I'm American and I have seen this first hand) are scarce right now and that many of them have actually gone down to Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, because work prospects are just better there than in the U.S. now.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:07 | 2308470 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I believe the term industrious applies here.

thanks for the info.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:19 | 2307777 Hangfire
Hangfire's picture

Exactly, please come to California and show me this booming economic recovery.  All I see is business get chased away with their tail in between their legs.  This state is bleeding blue and green at the cost of great businesses being run out of town with a pitch fork in their back for trying to manufacture or build anything that may have dangerous or hazardous materials (petty much everything you can imagine having to do with running a diesel engine, painting, metal fab, and on and on and on).  

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:35 | 2307896 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

Where are they going?

I d like to think the opportunities in Nebraska are still out there.

Housing in the $400K range sit for less than 10days.

I know this is economy is house of cards but I think they can fake it for a looonng time, with one caveat.  It works till it don't.

Be prepared as a boy scout, read the Bible for yourself word for word ( King James)  collect phyz and keep on keeping on people!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:47 | 2308014 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There are three areas doing well that I know (really doing well) and two are welfare areas:

1) Manhattan - King of the TBTF/BFF of the FRBNY Welfare ZIRP/QE/POMO/TARP/TALF Taxpayer Fleecing

2) Washington D.C.-Maryland-Virginia Government Worker & Contractor Corridor, where they're working short hours for long pay and union benefits (for life and thereafter) to improve the nation (/sarc).

3) North Dakota - Obviously, near record crude oil prices have lit a fire under the U.S.'s version of Alberta.

 

If you're not on the government teat, like D.C-Maryland-Virginia Fed Employee/Contractor Rowe, you need to have something in the ground worth digging out, to be able to prosper despite the incredible theft that Fractional Reserve Banksters are enabling on behalf of their owners.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:16 | 2308049 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

not to your post here, but just to sneak in..... thanks for all yours above; question (stoopid marginal-risk razor's edge) when you say bonds crash....do you see any diff between UST vs. "invest grade" (gag) corporates?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:00 | 2308161 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

TIS,

I love your posts.

Utah's current surplus is about $.5B. 

Utah PTB now argue incessantly how to spend it. 

In No. Utah, construction slowed 09-11, but they're going nuts again now, mostly commercial. 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:18 | 2308506 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

your user name may suggest you can guess why Utah would be doing so well, with a $2billion spy centre being built, etc.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705314456/Utah-will-host-new-19-billi...

other posters here have noted that the Morms are pretty well connected in the alphabet spy vs. spy agencies, as well as ambassadors *cough: spy* for amrka globally, not to mention their strong support for teh zion.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:23 | 2307868 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I always thought the (Branch Rickey regarding trading, players that is) quote ended "a year late". I am getting old, though.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:31 | 2307683 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Bet you saw a unicorn running down your street, too.  For real, man?  EVERY metric IS SHOWING and HAS SHOWN this economy is NO BETTER off than 2009.  The only "economic movement" has been from the printing of money and LYING ABOUT UE.  IT IS NOT better.  Our "No longer looking for work" are not counted, and those jobs that are hiring (according to the rose colored likes of Kudlow and Kramer) are lower paying and temporary, from those very same lying BLS and ADP data.  Tax revenue collections are lowest per capita in history.

The problem is the OTC Derivatives which again like a crack whore the TBTF all leveraged up again and took stupid fucking risks. They expect another bailout, at some time these "bailouts" will be violently opposed, such as shooting the stupid son of a bitches that even think of doing another one.  Look at Spain and Greece, burning and neither one addressing the DEBT.

That is what it all is, leveraging, and those "economic statistics" that show the consumer so confident are the same fucking ones that show MASSIVE revolving debt creation, meaning people are putting necessities and the other BS "on the card".

Debt cannot be taken care of by more Credit or debt, and that is where we are, you stupid fucking pumper.  GO AWAY!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:34 | 2307690 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Racking up debt at 150 million per hour, thats going to end well...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:35 | 2307692 Conman
Conman's picture

Don't be naive. Go to Google news, type in layoff for the real look at the labor market.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&q=layoff&oq=layoff&aq=f....

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:42 | 2307710 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Google Finacial news is worse than Cramer's picks.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:43 | 2307713 Conman
Conman's picture

what the fuck are you talking about. This is public notice layoff. WARN requires companies to list mass layoffs, google is just the news aggregator of choice.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:52 | 2307729 espirit
espirit's picture

Conman, I gave you the +1.  Good link. 

For those doubters, ask yourself when was the last time you saw "We're Hiring" more (than we're laying off) signs?

Service industry --> Knowledge industry --> Bankrupt industry

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:16 | 2307859 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Daily Job Cuts does a good job of showing how the "recovery" is coming along.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

 

 

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:14 | 2308113 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

The entire first page of results is just about layoffs in the past 48 hours.
Ouch.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:37 | 2307700 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

SimpleandConfused,

You must be a Trust Fund Baby that lives in the Hamptons.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:45 | 2307719 Jena
Jena's picture

Election cycle propaganda.  It'll pass.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:47 | 2307721 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

I am having a tough time hanging in with the ZH view of the world ending, living off the grid, hyperinflation and such.  I live in the real world and in my world, things are busy as all get out.  Roads are clogged, stores and restaurants are packed and even the gas stations have long lines.  I just don't see anyone struggling to get along out there except for the normal number of homeless bums begging for booze on the street corner.

 

TROLOLOLOLO

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:33 | 2307807 Confused
Confused's picture

That.

 

Never.

 

Gets.

 

Old.

 

Thanks! 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:59 | 2307744 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Only the "simple" draw your conclusions.

Zerohedge reports easily-verifiable data, along with clearly well-versed professional commentary;

What you chose to do with these tools is YOUR responsibility.

Whining because you think "predictions" haven't come in yet is beyond ignorant....  Which "predictions" are you referring to?   I have yet to see a "prediction" by Tyler's crew-  only logical deductions based upon accurate and unbiased data,  which is quite refreshing in this biz.

As an investment professional,  I have yet to find another media source even remotely comparable in value as Tyler's work.

But thanks for being "simple".

Keep buying your 3 shares of Apple every year- you'll be huge......

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:00 | 2307745 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

"But I see nothing that says I should be fearful of tomorrow."

You mistake educated, informed preparedness for fear. It's a common mistake among the truly fearful.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:10 | 2307761 Silverholic
Silverholic's picture

The fact that you just called everyone here "preppers" doesn't help you dillusional observations.

I think you should buy buy buy and we will see who's right.  Put your money where your big mouth is.  I am and I am stacking, bitch.

You buy paper and I will buy physical.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:11 | 2307764 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture


Now, this must be a joke.  Tell ya what SimpleandConfused, keep this post and explain your failure eventually.  You will not be proven correct.

If you're just being sarcastic, I apologize.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:15 | 2307771 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

SimpleandConfused: I voted you up because when I read that bullshit post I knew I was in for about 30 minutes of entertaining reading just by hitting refresh. So, thanks.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:25 | 2307787 toady
toady's picture

'...is usually just Palin wrong.'

When will you pricks give sister Sarah a break!

Drill baby drill! It's what real merkins would do!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:26 | 2308353 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

You noticed that too, toady?  That was a pretty sweet misspelling.

Not sure if this was an effort by S&C to troll or speak his mind but it was a compelling comment. 

Although I disagree with the knock on Tyler's "predictions", just as I disagree with you bringing merkins into the discussion.  I never met a merkin that could drill for oil. 

Wait - was that an intentional misspelling or did Disney come out with an animated merkin movie that I missed?  LOL

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:30 | 2307797 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"yet no collapse comes."

Again, it's easy to think that nothing will change.  But so many times in the past, even as recently as 2008, financial history, and in fact history proves you wrong.  Everything may appear pretty peachy (not really though!) right up to either deflationary collapse (we've seen a moderated deflationary collapse in housing in the US since 2008 that hasn't yet abated), or high/hyper-inflationary collapse. 

Math and debt saturation don't lie.  The world does not have enough income to service the massive, MASSIVE debt overhang. The ponzi debt based money bankstas (even and including the USD reserve fiat game) have played the game almost as long as it can possibly be played.

Something HAS to give and not even all of humpty dumpties men can put this back together again.

Prep for the reset.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:40 | 2307819 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Good for you pal. However, if you look dead center at my picture, THAT is for you!!! NFOAD!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:58 | 2307844 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Did you forget that everything always looks good right before things get very very bad?

 

You're like Bernanke; you learned nothing from history.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 14:07 | 2307855 piceridu
Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:28 | 2308050 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

SimpleandConfused, you exemplify the cognitive dissonance that is America and our world. To be thinking people, what we see, what we hear and what we "know" all needs to be weighed, assembled and are most useful if projected forward into a vision of the future ... or we can simply accept this current slice of time as the status quo, not comparing it against any background and assume all is normal.

Are we frogs in the pot being slowly cooked to death?

Many times when I don't understand something, I automatically assume that what I believe to be facts are incomplete, that others know better than me and that apparent illogic would make sense if only I knew the real facts. (For example: bank and government malinvestment and overspending made no sense to me because I assumed that the basis of comparison was a sound, functioning value creating business.... and that the people in banking and government would be paid based on the value they create.) However, most typically my assumptions have been correct, but my point of reference is incorrect. (For example: until recently it had never occurred to me that for those who engage in massive malinvestment, money is irrelevent because they can create and distribute infinite amounts at will. All they care about is power an insight.)

So, while I live in a comfortable suburb and virtually all of my neighbors are employed, few of the houses are for sale and there is no apparent disaster, I also know that there has been massive inflation in housing (mitigated somewhat recently), healthcare, food, energy, taxes and education and that for middle America salaries have not been keeping up. I also know that the proportion of value adding businesses and jobs have declined drastically over the years, implying that our country's ability to create value commensurate with its needs has declined.

I can also tell you that compared to earlier in my life I have a perception that: basic infrastructure is showing more signs of wear; the press is more afraid, less free and honest; television and entertainment have lost their moral and ethical compass; that financial institutions and people are less trustworthy and more self serving and greedy; the government is more corrupt; schools are less concerned with education and more concerned with indoctrination; the place where I live feels less intrinsically safe (growing up we always left our doors open and unlocked... not now). Does this impact me? Yes and no. I can make adjustments to all of it ... but why is it happening and what does it mean for the future?

If one extrapolates the world in which I grew up, through the world I live in now and then on to the future, the future looks very grim indeed. And yet, if I was growing up today, I would not notice the difference, not having a frame of reference.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:07 | 2308178 Jake88
Jake88's picture

removed

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 11:21 | 2309664 RallyRoundTheFamily
RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

+1

I can also tell you that compared to earlier in my life I have a perception that: basic infrastructure is showing more signs of wear; the press is more afraid, less free and honest; television and entertainment have lost their moral and ethical compass; that financial institutions and people are less trustworthy and more self serving and greedy; the government is more corrupt; schools are less concerned with education and more concerned with indoctrination; the place where I live feels less intrinsically safe (growing up we always left our doors open and unlocked... not now). Does this impact me? Yes and no. I can make adjustments to all of it ... but why is it happening and what does it mean for the future?

If one extrapolates the world in which I grew up, through the world I live in now and then on to the future, the future looks very grim indeed. And yet, if I was growing up today, I would not notice the difference, not having a frame of reference.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:11 | 2308109 mkkby
mkkby's picture

This writer sounds exactly like my sheeple friends and neighbors.  Their small corner of the world is still okay, therefore all is well.  It's normalcy bias and denial.

My reply is to look around the corner and educate yourself.  And if you still insist on burying your head in the sand - go ahead and buy stocks, houses and cheap chinese-made crap.  Your 2x4 to the head moment is coming.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:26 | 2308122 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

How come all the troll posts sound like echoes of each other?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 18:25 | 2308204 Kayman
Kayman's picture

I have a friend that closed up a business in Chicago because the union pension contibutions alone rose to $10 per hour, while his competition could hire under the table for less than $10.

So.... let's see... shall I watch accounting porn or hopium porn....

Ya ought ta get out and see more of the country. Stagnation is the growth industry...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:26 | 2307670 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Wilie E Coyote meets gravity moment.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:47 | 2307722 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

You rang?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:28 | 2307677 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Central Bankers should own everything so when they are arrested, thrown into prisons worldwide for financial terrorism everything is in one convenient computer system. That way when their wealth is re-distrubuted into the Open Source Monetary System and Government by Constitutionally based Referrendum takes place everyone gets a fair shake.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:31 | 2307803 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Central Bankers should own everything so when they are arrested"

 

Ah, we can dream, right?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:34 | 2307689 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yes, Wall Street keeps waiting for Retail to get back in before Selling as that marks the top for them.  But, what happens if Retail does not want to be the Bag Holder this time and does not get in?  Who will they sell to?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:07 | 2308105 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

In principle, you are right, but then again in recent years we saw all sorts of insane "innovations" by the oligarchs.
Who knows what's next? In recent months I tried to short the bitch multiple times and every time I got smoked. Was it logical? Yes, but so what? I lost money regardless.
Now, about US stock markett: how unlikely is it that the government would step in and buy craploads of shares to keep this circus going? Very. Do I dare to bet my money on that? Hmmm.. I am not so sure these days.
Let's see the euro collapse and then I'll get more bullish on good shorts.

Maybe they are trying to lure retail investors in just in time so that the smart money can "sell in May and go away", but I ain't going to wait till then. I have some money in stocks (PMs-related) but at the moment I intend to sell it all as soon as (well, if) they inch up 1-2 pct.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:33 | 2308274 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I have been short also but have made money.  You really have to know which stocks the hedge funds do not like or do not trust.

There was a time when Rimm was a favorite of Hedge Funds they could do not wrong.  Now no one would touch it with a ten foot pole.  The same with stocks like FCX, X etc.  Around 2009 with QE 1 they could not get enough of the shares.  Now they are left for dead.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:42 | 2307691 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Retail investors are not returning to the market because they have little income to spend thanks to rampent unemployment and they are cashing out their 401ks to pay down debt and buy food, if it is for their direct families or for their elderly parents who are trying live live on a barely COLA'd SS.  Meanwhile, the institutional investors (CBs) are creating more rampant inflation by leveraging debt in a way never seen in any society, and doing so by using a fiat based system.  This leverage, upon a system that holds no intrinsic value, is creating a spiral of malinvestment. 

What is a reason to buy bonds, when the payment will be made in fiat and the yield may only match inflation (that is debatable, using various indeces)?  What is the reason to hold cash when the investment has no intrinsic value and has no return?  Stock too is paid in fiat, and investing in corporations that use fradulent accounting (as do the governments that are issuing bonds), is sophmoric at best, so why invest there as well?

An arguement inside a failed paradigm is pointless; it is akin to battling windmills:  the Fiat Ponzi is a sham, and all investment inside of it are intrisically worthless, because the crux of the system, the dollar, is such.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:54 | 2307734 espirit
espirit's picture

Man, you let the cat out of the bag by saying that.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:03 | 2307945 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

MEOW ...... hsssssssssst!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2308027 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Mr. L.H. does someone need my assistance?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 15:08 | 2307951 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Mr. Lennon Hendricks,

You have a very valid point.  If Peoples Parents are caught without enouh Money because of 0 Interest rates and no increase in SS thru Cola then the responsible Child will help the out.  This in turn will lower their spendable income and investment in the Markets.

Many Families help their elderly Parents by supplementing their rent, sending them a check or in other ways.  I know my Father used to send his Mother a check every month to help her out.  Yes, there are still Familys that look out for each other no matter what. 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 16:04 | 2308039 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Yes, I helped my parents, however, I now see a new generation supplementing their struggling offspring as well.  Paying off the student loans, giving down payments for housing, new BMW's for school, where has the money gone?  How can I keep my prarrie mansion and retire in five years.  Seems to be the new question.  Not a problem for us on ZH though.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 17:19 | 2308116 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Let's not forget HFTs, which have ruined the ability to stop loss yourself out of a jam. So trading is out.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MAJOR BEAR MARKET.  It's just a question of time.  Until then, be patient and keep your powder dry.  That is when the risk/reward will make a lot more sense.  Most likely even PMs and real estate will be on sale at the same time.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:37 | 2307693 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Will any equities go up in a huge crash?  For example, will Short S&P ETF's go up?  Or are the dynamics of a huge crash such that so many buyers go broke that even equities that otherwise would rise just don't have buyers, and thus go down too?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:00 | 2308242 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

EVERYTHING going down becuase you have to sell your "winners" also to cover shorts and margins. No where to hide

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:35 | 2307696 jerryj
jerryj's picture

whew! glad you set us straight on these points, SimpleandConfused. I've been negative on the US economy long before ZH came into being - in fact long before the internet!

On the other hand, you tell me where we stopped (say back to the 1980s) our slide into debt and decline. The data shows a long, negative trend, unfortunately. But then maybe you're right???

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:36 | 2307698 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Well, "SimpleandConfused", not only are you simple and confused, you are in denial!...

Be sure to frame that piece above as an reminder...MY MAIN MAN, calls it like it is.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:38 | 2307701 billhilly
billhilly's picture

Well ok, maybe.  It seems that there is a large "spike" like this in the first quarter in each of the past 3 years, each being a bit larger in magnitude than the previous. 

Conclusion;  uncertain. 

Seems to be a lot of uncertainty going round.  Me, I am certain - don't play the rigged game if you care to keep your chips....and sanity.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:45 | 2307718 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Insiders are always sellers by definition - BTFD - gawd Tyler how mainstream you have become...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:46 | 2307720 BrokeDayTrader
BrokeDayTrader's picture

I'm short big AAPL, PCLN, CMG and all these consumer stocks which have reached preposterous heights based on fundamentals deteriorating by the week.

The Wall St. pigs the drove these stocks up to such obscene levels are going to be dumping big time to lock in gains, and these dip buying bucket shop traders are going to be left holding the bag.

I'm hoping we get a huge default in Europe within weeks that will trigger the algos to start selling these overpriced POS stocks and get a fire in the theater stampede going.

This is no different than July 2007.  The drop in these names is going to be epic.

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 13:49 | 2307829 delacroix
delacroix's picture

don't forget bbby

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:04 | 2308246 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

go away douchebag troll

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 12:53 | 2307730 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

I think you had it right last week, Just one thing left to do ..Go Parabolic..

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