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Chart Of The Week: This Is Who Is Selling
As we have pointed out before, the ongoing market tension is so palpable it can be cut with a knife. As a reminder, institutional investors are now about as "all in" as they can be, spinning narratives about economic growth, housing bottom, and general improvement (despite all facts to the contrary), while waiting for one simple thing: to get retail investors buying again. Because unless the Fed or ECB pumps another trillion or so in new liquidity there is simply no new purchasing money. However, as we have shown time and again, retail investors have had it with stocks, and are dumping domestic equity funds hand over fist despite the near vertical equity ramp fest, while money going into ETFs, that traditional straw man used by fund flow apologists, has been going almost exclusively into bond-related vehicles. Yet one group of investors has not been waiting to find out which way this temporary stalemate will end (because either the buyers' money will end first, or retail will throw in the towel and after a 20% artificial, liquidity-driven move to the upside will capitulate and become the latest bagholder). That group is corporate insiders: the people who know the fundamental prospects of their companies better than anyone, and certainly better than the propaganda media or the always wrong Wall Street sell side analyst brigade. And as the chart below demonstrates, insiders are now out and selling in record quantities.
Chart: Bloomberg
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Blue Horseshoe? It's only the FACEBOOK ipo......move along, this too shall pass.
The Facebook IPO will probably be the top. It seems like every time the news media just mentions the name stocks pop.
the chart says ave. number of insiders selling, per day (on a weekly basis)
we see here it has gone "over 40" which is, apparently, a number not seen for at least nine years
apparently, there is a record quantity of something somewhere, also
maybe down in theose squiggley's at the bottom?
I'm buying dips, food, and bullets.
Paulson learned his lesson. I am sure that other hedge funds will learn too.
The smart American is now dumping or has dumped his stocks and bonds and is buying GOLD, FOOD and more AMMO. The cash withdrawls from the banks must be HUGE! Good luck JP Morgue!!
What is the reaction of the FED/Gov. going to be? Any ideas on that? Massive "rescue" plans again?
Buy ESM2 till 1440. The only thing you should sell is .... GOLD :-)
Since gold started to drop the S&P just rose. I can't believe how people ignore this and still stuck with their back to the 80's fundamental toughts.
Don't worry hungarianboy,you will one day be a man.
A hungryman none the less but a man.
Does anyone besides the insiders even own stocks anymore?
I would say most stocks are instituionally owned. There are 4 stocks with more than 90 percent insider ownership. 1 beging Icahn.
Total market cap of USA stocks / Foreing ADR's is around 27 trillion.
The average share of Institutuional + insider ownership is 42.6 percent, not factoring in market cap.
Factoring in Market Cap 14 trillion dollars in owned by insiders and institutions and 14 trillion is owned by not insiders or institutions.
Insiders own 650 billion dollars of market cap, which is about 2 percent? Therefore insiders are actually the 1 percenters, which is probably why they are so pissed at the 1 percent crap. Wall Mart is easily the largest insider owned company with 48 percent.
The not institutional owner accounts for around 50 percent of the stock market, which means Wall Street / Pension owns half of the market, therefore excerting almost exclusive control of the stock market.
They don't like the stock, the stock goes away.
Analysis was done using Finviz and includes all companies listed on NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX.
Any reason why you should now not think the international banking cartel owns the world?
Keep in mind there are lots of huge private companies.
Quite interesting. Thx for sharing the calc with us.
Hey smart guy simple and confused. Can you explain to me what happened to the PHONY RALLY from 2002 to 2007 ? Oh yeah 4 years of up market and you made a new low at 666. GO LUCK BELIEVING THAT ALL IS NICE AND DANDY . You dont understand markets. SOLD to you !
You mean I shouldn't trust the Wall Street HFT bonus machine, and that all we really need to look at what people who are actually running the company's think?
Once again, to state the ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLY OBVIOUS: These days insiders are NEVER buyers. They are only sellers.
Why?
Because insiders are never required to buy the stock in the companies they parasitically suck off of. Maybe 30 or 40 years ago when insiders were not simply coddled, elitist f'tards who have been given their shares for free, simply for existing, there were insiders who purchased stock. Not the case now.
If you are given shares simply for cooperating as part of a parasitic uber-conspiracy then you will never have a reason to buy and you will only sell ... as you need or want cash.
"... and they thought they were given the shares because they were valuable and not because they just rolled over and did the dirty work for satan, not considering the consequences."
The big banks colluded leading to 1929 and they are colluding now with the blessing of the White House, Congress and the Fed.
Another 1929 x 5 is coming.
According to the data provided weekly to Barron's by Thomson Reuters and published in Market Lab, the latest dollar-based ratio of insider share sales to outright purchases was 40, and the week before that was 35.
As a very rough guide, a number above 20 is considered a negative symbol about supply and demand for equities by informed actors, and the ratio has been at or above 20 in six of the past 10 weeks. The last time there was a grouping of as many weeks above 20 and the four-week average was as high as the current 28 was late April into early May of last year, a better sell point than buy moment, in retrospect.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903715504577305564002729208.html?mod=BOL_twm_col
"Retail investors."
How quaint.
Follow the money!
If insiders the are selling off they will be hedging so what's the derivative markets doing?
someone just won 600 million jackpots
.
things are different this time
Insiders heading for the exits.
Selling worthless paper as fast as possible on the way out!
Proof in the pudding? Look at a graph of the DOW priced in ounces of gold.
Despite gold being range bound at $1,630/oz to $1,700/oz, it's ended the first quarter in 2012 with gains in ALL major currencies. Which proves debt monetisation (printing) and currency debasement is leading to continuing currency devaluation.
This is not good news for the consumer, as devalued currency induced cost push inflation, sets ever higher prices at the check out counter. How's your grocery and gasoline bill doing recently?
The DOW is not going up ~ its the dollar thats going down, giving all those with any skin in the market a false sense of wealth.
As a new guy here without any financial credentials (other than being a former business owner and past comm. real estate investor) does it really matter who is buying or selling an obviously rigged and dysfunctional market where valuations are completly divorced from reality or net worth?
The gamblers will gamble and a few will make gains while many more will be catching falling hammers that will pound them into paste. Simple as that.
An entire world filled with funny money and debt that cannot EVER be repaid is just not going to produce anything but beggers in the long run.
There is an armada of black swans (sorry, overdone metaphor) coming from the horizon of short term debt that can't be resolved because there is simply not enough money to cover and when the first next AIG goes belly up, a cascade of bankruptcy will follow and the Ponzi will be over. The resulting inflation will insure that only the largest cash rich producers will survive and those are few in the overall market.
Let the cheer leaders cheer but I'm PMing as hard as I can. Some of us who enjoy reading history will get a chance to see what the Dark Ages really looked like for the peasantry.
Buy gold and fatten up your dogs now while you can.
Absolutely agree.
By the way, loved my shovelhead superglide!
where are the talking sheeple on buying AAPL?!!
One Of The Best Market Indicators There Is Continues To Plunge Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/cesiusd-drops-again-2012-3?nr_email_refer...
Professor Bernanke graded by classProfessor Bernanke graded by class
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2012/03/30/n-grading-professor-bernanke....
We've got to find Wilson... and tell him to sellllll!
Wilson where are you going?
Wilson you idiot, get back in there and selll... selll...
LMAO
Foxx Cons chain link "dream catcher" suicide prevention, butter fly fishing nets will suffer catastrophic failure if only 1/10th of one per cent of the lemming employees decide to simultaneously jump during a tea break ! Monedas 2012 Time for a suicide Kamekaze strike vote !
On the “chart of the week” 2 peaks of insiders’ selling precede, in several circumstances, each market sell-off. Typically, the second peak is lower than the first one, suggesting that only a few “stronger hands” finally got wise when the market was engineering a final unsustainable rally. If true, the present peak of selling is only the first one. Should we wait for the second one, to get out of overly optimistic positions? I will definitely not do it…
Second question: can we “time” the lapse between insiders’ selling and the market top? As “LowProfile” noticed, 2-6 months time lapse would be a reasonable expectation, based on previous data. Unfortunately such a wide range is a Prechterian Approximation and is hardly tradable.
Finally, if one compares the market in W’s unbelievably successful reelection year (2004) with the moves in 2012 it seems that the “rampo” of the first quarter is neither sustainable nor necessary. Thus, I expect some engineered downtrend to be initiated soon. This should (probably, in June) morph into an enthusiastic rally into November…I am using Gann’s simplistic but effective numerology in proposing an SPX~1440, soon. This is what I am trying to present on this Monthly SPX chart, where 1440 would be also a retest of the May 2008 high, after which the cascade was activated:
http://twitpic.com/94cyi5
Suicide Vampire Squid Divesting
from
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxYCeDZOAPw
Who will be buying Gold when it's $3000 per Trounce ? Imagine the Kodak theatre when Whoopi Goldberg cuts a fart ! Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad Ponzi Panic For The Exits
Q: "Who will be buying Gold when it's $3000 per Trounce ?"
A: the same people who asked "who will be buying gold when it's $1700", when gold was trading at $500
I screwed up ! I meant to mean all the Ponzi fiat will stampede for the Gold "Exit" when the panic gets under way ! Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad My Bad
I dreamt (nightmared) I had a wet date with Whoopi Goldberg....and the next day my dick fell off ? Monedas 2012 "That's what ya git for makin' Whoopi !"....F. Sinatra
Did she have iBrows in your dream? Was it a hairy bush?
I don't remember any eye brows....I avoided looking at her face ! The bush was just like her hair....except a little darker and kinkier....as with all people....even blondes ! Monedas 2012 Thanks for sharing my dream !
Animal Anecdotes: I just looked out on the street and saw my dog (Dorado) lift his leg and piss on a telephone pole....he then walked a few feet, squated, raised his tail, hunched his back and took a shit ! He stepped away and kicked some dirt towards his pile ! What's the moral ? He marks his territory proudly then tries to cover his spoor ? Moral: He want's the other dogs to stay away....and he wants the bitchez to think his shit doesn't stink ! Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad Dog Show
Bullish...right?
This is wonderland, EVERYTHING is bullish.
Maybe doing some own analyses before jumping into conclusions? Manic behavior can last for a long, long time. No matter who is financing it.
Did you know that Jesus died in Kashmir old aged?
Kashmir ? It looked more like cotton !
That was when he died on young age! The guy improved his lifestyle after that.
Gold- about 2250 in September
yuuuuuuuuuuup
2012 Apr 10 gold price performance 10 years | Flickr - goldpricemodel
This message for Do Chen : Pubic hairs are non-metalic, ergonomic "tethered" roller bearings....that reduce the occurrence of blistering and body sores ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad World Tour
The hedge funds are severely levered up so even small money can go a long way in keeping stocks up and you may not need as much money to keep the jig going for a while.
This is one reason FED has bailed out hedge funds many of which would have been defunct in the last meltdown by extending them TARP/TALF or whatever windows...these funds are keeping markets alive with HFT trades etc and help the FED cause of helping wall street/banks. For the system to reach equilibrium, many/most of these indeed need to vanish; we have more funds than stocks trading, and they will, however, it may be a long process though.
Hedge Funds are levered up and the more their stocks go up the larger their ability to margin even more stocks. As their Margin increases and they buy more to pump up the value of what they already own. This practice also increases their cost average. They seem to feel safe being everyone else is in the same stocks. But, if the stocks fall they will have to reverse the margin at a faster rate as they are levered to the hilt. If just one hedge fund sells then it will be like a line of dominos where if one falls then they all follow. You only need one to get into trouble with their investments to bring down the whole market.
And, right on cue, ES opens up 6 handles and is going to be pumped all night.
Dissect it all you want. It works and the 1/2% that know its fraud will be drowned out by the fucktards who don't know.
That's life.
I have the seen the future and it ends with children straving while their mothers hook for food and their fathers sell the wallstreet bankers 8 balls of stepped on coke.
this makes for just another tell from Mr. Market, whom imho is in zombie mode or in a trance hypnotized by HFT auto trading.
According to JL, insiders were poor trading tells and do not make for good timing indicators. Their decisions are typically driven by non-market or outlier motivations that may not make this as valuable of an indicator as it seems to appear.
You will never know until you bet your own $$$ on the indicator or your own ideas.
good trading!
Take the money and run. This is an appropriate action for individuals.
Like the paradox of thirft, doing this smart thing deflates the inflated valuations.
This is retrenchment to an earlier reality. Back to the 1950's.
One difference. Things were lean then, but real growth was not stymied by a debt overhang.
Like poor Aubery on "The Apprentice," smart, yet unable to listen to those who have been in life decades longer, the young guns have blown a hyper-bubble with credit/debt.
It will become more ugly, like Blue Man Group's bursting money ballon. Disorder leads to chaos.
While the system can handle some breaches of trust, the majority of individuals must be always trusthworthy.
That does not seem to be the norm. If everyone uses asymmetric information/spins/lies, the system can have no foundation and will, therefore, not be able to perpetuate.
The "marshmellow test" is a famous method for determining if children have the mental ability to defer gratification when there's a payoff. "If you don't eat this marshmellow while I'm gone, I'll give you two when I get back," the adult tells the child.
In filmed tests, one young girl licked, but did not ear the marshmellow. A shell was left, a hollowed out marshmellow which, from a distance looked whole, though in reality hollow.
Our financial system has been licked hollow. As Nicole Foss puts it, too many claims on the underlying assets.
All the solutions are in the past. There are things that should not have been done, or done, but weren't. We can't go back in time, but will have to correct going forward.
This is not easy and takes great knowledge and wisdom as to what to do, how to do it, and how to pay for it.
For those who control the wealth, thinking that do so because they are "GOOD," rather than just "LUCKY," their piece of the puzzle is more challenging.
Humanity will survive, but will "We the people," be able to figure out the correction?
Funny how it went comparitively 'quiet' during the debt-ceiling and downgrade mass-debate last July.
Where is the money going? In Florida I'm seeing lots of people buying houses for cash to use as rentals. Banks are taking $30,000, $50,000 for houses that mortgaged for $100,000 to $200,000.