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Charting America's Ever Shrinking "Revisionist" Economy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This has been the recovery of downward revisions - each annual revision to payrolls and GDP since the recovery started in 2009 revealed an even sharper contraction and weaker recovery. BofAML believes this year’s revision, which is released with the Q2 GDP report on Friday, will once again show an even slower start to the recovery with growth revised lower in 2009 and 2010, and modestly higher in 2011. While it is good news that growth could be revised higher in 2011, it appears that it will only be marginal. The downward revisions to growth in 2009 and 2010 will still leave the level of GDP lower and, hence, the output gap larger. This shows that the economy has made even less progress in healing from the deep recession. The severity and duration of the recession was understated in real time and the recovery was overstated. This suggests that monetary policy may not have been easy enough over the past several years - and therefore the current slowdown is even more significant.

 

 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revises the National Income and Products Accounts (NIPA) every year along with the first estimate of Q2 GDP. This will not only affect GDP, but also income and PCE inflation. Thus, the saving rate and core PCE deflator could be altered. The revisions are based on more comprehensive source data and, on occasion, reflect methodology changes. There were fairly significant methodology changes last year, but this year, the revisions mostly reflect more complete data and updated seasonal adjustments. Data are subject to revision back to Q1 2009.

 

Source: BofAML

 

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Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:48 | 2645233 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The Paul Krugman "Final Solution" is coming.

 

Afterwards, the greatest consumer spending orgy in history will be happening right before our eyes.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:52 | 2645247 clagr
clagr's picture

Krugman was on TV recently and said that he would feel comfortable with Government being up to 50% of total GDP!!!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:00 | 2645259 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

it's obvious that the "Fed Reserve" is continually spinning, together with Federal politicians.

Banksters have the inside of course, and are being back stopped.

FED fronts threat to QE to thwart the confidence of shorts.

Yawn, this has been going on way too long.

Central Planners are a failure. And the politicians are slick talkers as usual. Spin, lie, distort economic numbers.

Yawn again. We won't be fooled again.

Time is ripe for real change. Like getting back to real money. Buy gold and silver. The best money.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:00 | 2645264 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

"Revisionist" economy ?

"Illusory" is the proper description.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:21 | 2645329 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

Krugman is an angry dwarf.

He is getting back at the world for being stuffed in a locker back in junior high.

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:32 | 2645361 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Krugman defines GDP and 'Grab, Drag, and Pull.'

Grab all future incomes, Drag it forward and spend it now, Pull us deeper into debt

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:56 | 2645253 adr
adr's picture

and then what? Consumers aren't spending, they are borrowing. There is a difference Robo.

To that end there is far less borrowing going on. Inventories are stagnating. Under Armour beat estimates because of massive channel stuffing in the footwear category. Inventory I can tell you did not sell at retail. Under Armour will need to take back at least $250 million in product this year. Under Armour made a huge bet on an oudoor shoe designed through a crowdsourced design contest. The winning shoe was picked by executives who had no experience in footwear, and designed by a student with no real world experience. To say the product flopped would be an understatement.

Do you think Ally finanical would be amking billions in subprime loans to get rid of GM inventory if it didn't have the belief the US government would backstop the losses?

Ask Mitsubishi how that system worked out for them.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:33 | 2645364 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Under Armor also went too heavy in image peddling & promoting it's NFL & college football roots...

I personally think they'd have done a lot better by branching more heavily into womens fashion/functional athletic wear... UA management are not the brightest bulbs in the room...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:04 | 2645466 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

$140K in free shit for the high school that pandered most to UA

http://findingundeniable.com/

Start em early, hook em for life.

Bread & Circuses.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:27 | 2646129 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

First one is on the house.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2645282 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Even I am having a hard time working around the sarcasm on that one.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:15 | 2645305 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's not sarcasm, it's a response generator. It's like the lure on an angler fish:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglerfish

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:27 | 2645345 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

Under Armour may be on to something.

Who would not want to wear Ronald McDonald's shoes?

http://highschoolhoop.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Under-Armour-Micro-G-Bloodline.jpeg

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:47 | 2645404 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Mere words are inadequate.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:14 | 2645497 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Green shoots!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:48 | 2645234 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Revise, my friends. Revise.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:48 | 2645235 adr
adr's picture

Trust what you see, not what you hear.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:49 | 2645241 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

In other words;

Please can we have some more,Uncle Ben.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:09 | 2645288 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Trust what you have buried in 4" PVC off site. Screw the rest.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:50 | 2645422 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

4" PVC, I like it.....do you need to stuff it with some magic stuff to prevent corrosion?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:53 | 2645430 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

also, how far should one dig down so those pesky metal detectors don't find anything barbaric?  I'm thinking of a 6' long 4" diameter PVC pipe and post hole digger.

A year ago, if I would have said that, I would have checked myself into a mental institution.  LOL

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:56 | 2645440 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

and just so I remember where I buried it, I'll leave a red flag on top that says "PM buried here". 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:52 | 2645633 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Pull a existing post of a fence, dig it's hole down deeper, cut bottom off post, put post/fense back. The post/ fense will prevent the detector from getting over the buried object, also easy to find latter.
Other people's property too. A warrant to search other's is a bit more problematic.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:56 | 2645249 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Everything the Government reports will be "revised".  Everything the government reports are LIES!  Goebbels would be proud of The Corporate States Of America.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2645257 adr
adr's picture

Goebbels wouldn't have even been able to comprehend the current state. It is beyond anything he could dream up.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:02 | 2645273 same old story
same old story's picture

LOL. So true

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2645287 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

+1. Agreed.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2645280 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Its not just the government. Every single economist, that would be 70 of them, that Bloomberg polled for an ISM predictive number were wrong. They all "guessed" to the upside of the number which was 49.7. Anything under 50 signals a contraction. At some point you have to ask yourself what is the emotional investment in pretending things are better than they really are and what are these pretenses costing us?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:57 | 2645255 new game
new game's picture

relies'd

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2645256 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

WTI pulling a WTF

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:01 | 2645268 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

DBA getting smoked, the run in grains is over.

 

Once again, the consumer will get more relief.

And Bernanke didn't even have to open his piehole this time.

It happened all by itself.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2645281 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The 100 degree temps over cornland seem to be creating a mirage.

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:52 | 2645427 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

DBA - LOL What a fucking joke that instrument is. Muppet Shearing device.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:02 | 2645272 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

"This suggests that monetary policy may not have been easy enough over the past several years-" Bwahaaaaaaa!!! What we need to do is prrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnttttttttttttttttttttttt! Instead of 40 acres and a mule how about 100k and a Escalade.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:03 | 2645274 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Is the Richmond Fed repeating 2008?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:07 | 2645286 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

stock up on Uncle Bens Rice !!!!!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:11 | 2645292 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Uncle Bens Rice provides far more nutrition than Father Bens Fiat.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2645291 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Stay Revised, My Friends" - Ben Bernanke, the Most UnInteresting Man in the World.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:04 | 2646018 kralizec
kralizec's picture

All good humor is rooted in truth, this one is especially well rooted!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2645299 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Actually it suggests the problems goes a lot further than low interest rates.  Continue on.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 10:21 | 2645328 CABill
CABill's picture

For a reality check, I say we add lines for 2012 and 2013.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:08 | 2645724 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Another summer of recovery.

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