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Charting The Biggest Structural Problem For US Banks, And What The Market Expects From Jackson Hole, Version N+1

Tyler Durden's picture


Sometimes the general public can get confused in attempting to explain the complexities and the inefficiency of the banking sector when one simple chart brings the message home. A chart like that comes from the latest "Eye on the Market" from JPM's Michael Cembalest, who compares total bank deposits ($8.4 trillion), or bank liabilities, and total bank loan (about $2 trillion less) assets, or sources of cash flows that are supposed to fund bank liabilities and generate retained earnings, while the bank performs credit, maturity and risk transformation: a bank's three key functions. As the chart below shows, perhaps the primary reason why the economy is in its current deplorable state, is that instead of lending dollar for dollar to catch up with deposit growth, banks now rely on roughly $1.7 trillion in excess reserves with the Fed, an amount roughly equal to the difference between total deposits and loans, to plug the credibility gap. This also explains why according to Cembalest one of the expectations by the market from Jackson Hole is that IOER will be cut to 0% to promote bank lending, and thus the conversion of reserves into loans (something which the inflationistas out there will tell you is a big risk to a sudden surge in out of control inflation). So how does the Fed's direct intervention in bank balance sheets look like? Here it is.

What this chart demonstrates is that banks, whose liabilities (deposits) are collateralized with IOER-interest bearing reserves, will sooner or later be forced to transform these holdings into risky loan-based assets. The question is whether there is enough cashflow-worthy collateral to absorb this transformation of about $1.7 trillion in fungible money. It also means that endogenous risk in the banking system will spike if and when the Fed weans banks to pull away from the safety of the IOER window, and into the far riskier, and far better paying real world.

As for the 4 things which Cembalest believes the markets expect from the Fed, here they are:

  • make long-term interest rates lower even though they’re already low (2.2% on 10 year Treasuries), perhaps through some kind of “Twist” operation that also removes shorter-term liquidity
  • add liquidity through asset purchases even though there’s plenty of it in the system
  • “encourage” banks to lend more money by eliminating interest on excess reserves held at the Fed, even though banks are struggling with insufficient loan demand, and surveys show a substantial relaxation of lending standards
  • buy corporate bonds, even though investment grade spreads are 85% of their way back to 2007 levels

As noted earlier, we believe the logic on Twist may be inverted, as further flattening on the 2s10s will perversely further impair the banking sector due to a complete collapse in net interest income, and with BAC already trading a dollar away from a toxic death spiral, this is not something the Fed would like to risk. That said, since we do not have an Economic Ph.D., and according to Dr. Nouriel Roubini, we represent the anti-intellectual, lumpenproletariat of the far too democratic blogosphere, and should just keep our mouth shut, we could well be wrong. Surely, however, even Bernanke realizes by now that there is far too much priced into his speech: should he disappoint the market and not announce even the possibility of one of these four, then the warning from BAC that flawed policy decisionmaking could result in the biggest crisis since 2008, may be about to come true.


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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:13 | 1597670 MIDTOWN
MIDTOWN's picture

If you know of "Relaxed Lending Standards" please disclose what bank you are dealing with.  Relaxed Lending Standards are not a reality.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:39 | 1597766 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Is not NINJA, option ARM's and interest only loans how we got here in the first place???

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:15 | 1597877 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

Standards haven't been relaxed to match the interest rates.  I get credit card offers in the mail now with a 725 FICO, but they are all for 19.9% or higher interest rates.  SBA-backed loans are still in the 9.5% and higher range.  CRE loans are non-existant.  Residential mortgages are hard to get with less than 20% down, but if you have 700+ FICO, steady job over the past 5 years, and 20-25% down then you can get 4.5% on a 30-yr fixed. 

I want to borrow for my business but not at double-digit rates.  Go back to the SBA-backed loan days of 5% and I'll be the first to line up.  Double the interest means nearly 50% higher monthly payments.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:56 | 1597990 JohnG
JohnG's picture

"Residential mortgages are hard to get with less than 20% down, but if you have 700+ FICO, steady job over the past 5 years, and 20-25% down then you can get 4.5% on a 30-yr fixed. "

Which is why housing is dead, dead, dead.


I get those same offers, preapproved just transfer your balance......bah! Two or three a day.  I don't carry a balance and they should see that.


Just need short term, really a bridge loan for a year.  Hard to get.  Banks do not want to lend.  No shortage of borrowers, just no lending.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:34 | 1598067 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

--John Maynard Keynes;  

The Economic Consequences of the Peace


John Maynard Keynes just yelled out that The Bernank is a moron, from his stately grave.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:16 | 1598483 Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

The Bernank doesn't play for our team. He plays for the opposition.

We are the enemy.

Keynes is calling The Bernank a genius.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 18:49 | 1601958 ZeroAffect
ZeroAffect's picture

Residential mortgages are hard to get with less than 20% down might need to know the following facts:

USDA RURAL Development residential loans: $100 Earnest Money - 100% financing - Seller is allowed to pay up to 6% of the buyer's closing costs and pre-paids. Happens with alarming regularity, i.e., many, many times every business day and here's the kicker - one can purchase a house on a city lot. It does not need to be rural residential property. These can be obtained for suburban type residential housing on small lots, real small lots.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:43 | 1597783 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

I agree, midtown.

Previously, 5% down (at my bank) and appraisals were a formality.

The recent land purchase I made, most banks were not even interested. The local bank I used required 25% down, several appraisals and a written balance sheet of our monthy income/debt to meet their "standards" of available income. And it was a struggle to eventually get the bank to post bi-weekly payments, instead of monthly.

Relaxed was not the case in my case, at all.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:56 | 1597824 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Exactly.  I've had simlar experience.  Bought land adjacent to my property 1 year ago.  Had to almost beg them on my knees when it was a no brainer from my point of view.  I just wanted the trees, and they were wanting a contract for the harvest BEFORE I owned the land and could contract it.  It's a tree farm, simplest business there is imho, just let the trees grow.  It was a real mess to get through that.  Not sure 'll do it again unless I can buy in cash.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:14 | 1597672 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Like pushing a string up a cat's ass....



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:26 | 1597729 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Actually, if you wet the string and then freeze it, it becomes an easy task.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:33 | 1597748 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Freeze the cat??

That's cruel man.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:34 | 1597751 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....and be sure to astroglide it, too....for the cat's sake.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:51 | 1597806 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

LOL! ...ew.....hope your cat is declawed, or you are going to need stitches after that experience!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:15 | 1598040 oldman
oldman's picture

Hey Shirley,

Please back off on the cats jokes-----my best friends are cats and we are very sensitive creatures    thanks   om

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:10 | 1598125 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture


You "Fight Club" boys are some straight pussies sometimes....

It's not a "joke". It's a fucking allegory you simple fuck.

QE = string

cat = USA economy

dumbfuck pushing the string = Bernanke

Tell your cats I said WOOF.



Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:38 | 1598281 Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture


Surely those are some crazy eyes.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 15:07 | 1605183 oldman
oldman's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:14 | 1597674 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

it's broke, man

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:16 | 1597682 Kali
Kali's picture

What can he say?  They've already told us the economy is gonna be shit for at least 2 more years by extending ZIRP to 2013.  Nothing that comes out of BB's pie hole is gonna change that.  FUBAR.  Kaboom.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:39 | 1597771 indygo55
indygo55's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:57 | 1597826 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

qe3 very bullish for gold
no qe3 very bullish for gold
op twist 2 very bullish for gold
world war 3 very bullish for gold
new world order very bullish for gold
ron paul elected president very bullish for gold

gold — the anti dow, bitchez!


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:39 | 1597772 indygo55
indygo55's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:55 | 1597890 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:17 | 1597692 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Free market? What free market? BTW - Do Keynesians actually consider themselves to be Capitalists? Just wondering.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:19 | 1597698 magpie
magpie's picture

If the State can be the only capitalist.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1597724 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

Worse- Keynesians consider themselves the saviors of capitalism, when the opposite is truth. Orwell has nothing on the US, circa 2011.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:18 | 1597695 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I don't think it matters how much they relax the lending standards, the ones who would borrow are saturated in debt already. In order to lend, you need able borrowers, and they've already been tapped to the max. No way around it, over it, or out of it. Debt saturation has been reached.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1597759 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I have talked to some people with good credit who tried to borrow

money to expand their business, and they were all basically told

they had to prove they didn't need the money to even have a chance

at getting it. One guy offered to give his bank enough gold bullion

to hold to cover the loan and was still turned down. Finally the bank

offered to lend him the money at 8.5%. I don't see loan standards

falling, quite the contrary, especially for smaller businesses.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:21 | 1598114 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture



It depends.

The game (literally, as in it's a game) now is FHA mortgages, still available to anyone with a pulse.

What do I mean by a pulse?

Well, if one has a 580 credit score or better, they can buy a home with a mere 3.5% down, and the FHA (aka Government) backs the loan, insuring the lender originating the loan and also subsequent purchasers of the note against any losses.

And if one has a 500 credit score or better, the FHA will STILL guarantee the loan, but the only additional requirment of the borrower is that 5%, rather than 3.5%, be put down.

This information is all published on FHA's website.


So, we all can see how government is STILL the problem, I hope.

Some will say "but TIS, isn't it good that this is available, given the state of the housing market and economy?"

My reply is that no, it's not.

The core disease the U.S. has is unemployment/underemployment/wage erosion.

Having the FHA backstop mortgages, with trivial amounts down, to borrowers who are poor credit risks, only kicks the can that is our day of reckoning down the street, and makes the ultimate resolution of our mess that much more painful.

The kicker is that even with this ridiculous FHA program in place, housing sales are still anemic, and even with record low mortgage rates?

Why is that? A lack of jobs, a lack of confidence, and - yes - most can't even come up with the 3.5% or 5% down (64% of Americans can't come up with $2,000 in a 48 hour period if they had to tend to an emergency car or home repair).

Government is prolonging the problem and exacerbating the pain that will be ultimately felt when it comes crashing down, as usual.

By offering up this ridiculous FHA program, government is literally helping to hide how bad things really are, as they are acting in the role of lender, artificially and massively depressing interest rates.

Finally, most people buying homes last year under the 'first time homebuyer tax credit' were using said tax credit AS THEIR DOWN PAYMENT!!

The inflationistas would be pissed off, but it'd be far better to attack this problem through MARKET FORCES, as in letting home prices crash even more, rather than trying to prop the housing market up (without success anyways) with taxpayer monies and taxpayer funded programs.

Let prices of these houses people are buying with a 3.5% down FHA mortgage fall another 75%, and let an investor pay cash for the house and rent it out to the would have been FHA loan taker/buyer for 50% of what the mortgage payment would have been under the FHA mortgage.

The U.S. Government has gone mad. Plan accordingly.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:43 | 1598503 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The US government has gone mad. That almost sounds like it is a recent development.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 12:43 | 1600121 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

"letting home prices crash even more, rather than trying to prop the housing market up" 


Amen to that.

Price discovery mechanisms have now left the building.

Markets need to clear, and asset prices need to fall a ways further before they'll do that.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 02:31 | 1598346 Debugas
Debugas's picture

banks have no money to lend because they have lended already too much to non-paying borrowers and need to write-down now

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:00 | 1598585 spinone
spinone's picture

They have no need to lendbecause the FED pays them for keeping money on depost, instead of loaning it out. But, when they stop and the banks loan it out, look out for inflation.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:36 | 1598500 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

My bank told me I needed $250k in liquidity to borrow $100k, absolutely absurd.



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:56 | 1597825 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Debt saturation has been reached. The outcome is the death of materialism. People not longer believe being in debt is a sustainable risk. It is now apparent to most that they better be out of debt by 40 and stashing cash for the next 15. After 55 all bets are off. The national debate has shifted from kicking the can down the road to paying the piper. From Government to kitchen table the deleveraging bell is ringing.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:52 | 1598097 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Debt saturation has been reached. The outcome is the death of materialism. People not longer believe being in debt is a sustainable risk.

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American consumer, LB. There are plenty of people that will still leverage up as much as they can for iCrap and 3D tvs. Debt saturation has been reached, and that's why we're hearing more and more about debt forgiveness. I'd love to see Americans deleverage, save more and consume less, but our economy will crash if that happens. I think we'll see debt forgiveness in the near future. It's really the only option to keep the world economy out of a major depression.  

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:19 | 1598487 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

If they forgive the debts of deadbeats, they better look forward to forgiving EVERYONE's debts!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:56 | 1598575 spinone
spinone's picture

Yep, and when you debt saturate a fractional reserve currency, its broke.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:20 | 1597701 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Dr. Nouriel "I have a PHD and you don't so STFU" Roubini.

BS == Bullshit
MS == More Shit (I stopped here)
PhD == Piled Higher and Deeper.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:26 | 1597728 Marcuz Aurelius
Marcuz Aurelius's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:26 | 1597730 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

PhD's spend their entire existence shielded behind college walls, knowing nothing of the real world on the other side.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:58 | 1597828 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Those who can't, teach.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:11 | 1598027 Kali
Kali's picture

And those who can't teach, work for the government

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:46 | 1598505 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I have a piled higher and deeper and I work for the government. Spend my day on zerohedge. Isn't the world grand?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:01 | 1597838 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Careful with your hasty generalizations, especially with Ivy League ones....

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:51 | 1598508 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Robert Murphy earned a PhD from NYU in 2003. I wonder if Roubini teaching at NYU in 2003?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:40 | 1597773 nmewn
nmewn's picture

PhD == Piled Higher and Deeper.


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:10 | 1598126 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

So does a JD mean jammed up deeper?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:56 | 1598212 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

JD = Just fuckin Die

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 05:24 | 1598453 nmewn
nmewn's picture

In my close observation of them it stands for Jive Desseminator ;-)

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:09 | 1598020 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

"The University thinker has his food brought to him in his cage. The independent thinker gets his food in the wild"

Arthur Schopenhauer

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:20 | 1597704 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

There will be a cricket moment followed by a huge sucking sound.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1597720 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

More like flushing sound. The turd always likes to do a brief bob and spin before it's washed down the shit pipe.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:38 | 1597707 barliman
barliman's picture


The new normal (widespread unemployment) is so far removed from the old normal (both in reality and results) that absent Mr. Bernanke announcing two of the four and setting expectations for the "new" new normal (unemployment and housing statistics to be eliminated as a cost savings measure), the markets will be trashed till the banks get their drug of choice (no risk - ever again).



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:51 | 1597804 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

Thanx for signing your post at the bottom. I was worried someone had gotten access to your account and was making posts without your knowledge and I enjoy giant fucking redundancies. carry on.





Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:34 | 1597931 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:22 | 1597710 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

<------Double dip recession officially declared before end of year.

<------We keep limping into 2012.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:23 | 1597714 SolidSnake961
SolidSnake961's picture

Is that 4 different things that can happen to get a rally or do all 4 things have to happen?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:23 | 1597717 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Here is what Ben is going to say Friday.

Hello, it is a really nice day out today, and the fish are biting.

Oh, and have a nice day.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:00 | 1598475 Sambo
Sambo's picture

The fish are biting...they are biting his ass.

FISH = Failed Investments in Stocks & Houses

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:08 | 1598477 fishface
fishface's picture

You mean he is doing the Steve Jobs?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1597721 wombats
wombats's picture

Wow!  Drive long term interest rates lower.  I'd love to refinance again.  I didn't think I'd ever see 30yr mortgage rates go low enough to make it worthwhile, but maybe...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:20 | 1598411 Seer
Seer's picture

Low rates still don't mean that banks will lend.  After all, they only want lower rates so that they can take piles of money to the casino...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:41 | 1598502 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

that would be such a teaser, I'm $50k underwater and don't have the $100k to cover the difference plus 20% still making my payments with crappy fiat dollars thow...eventually the dollar will devalue enough that my house will actually be worth what I owe right?



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1597722 carlnpa
carlnpa's picture

Nobody that still has the ability to borrow in this environment will.

My little personal goal is never to be a debt slave again, screw this banking and financial system.

Until these banking/sec/corporate assholes are sitting in jail, I withhold my support by paying off my debts.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:54 | 1597815 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

And that's the real problem they've created by not punishing theft/graft/fraud.

The people with the ability to help the system get back on its feet a little have all decided, "FUCK THE SYSTEM"

Everyone I know who rolled debt just because they could and put cash to work creating growth for the system has payed the debt back.

People with mortgages that have the ability to refinance have all done so or are in the process.  But with the lower rates, this hurts the banks over the long term too.  Hell, everyone I know who had a 25 or 30 year mortgage has refinanced to a 15 and the payments are smaller than before.

By not punishing the criminals, the PRODUCTIVE members of society have all decided to tell the banks, "GO FIST YOURSELVES"

And the kicker is, all of us who are unplugging from the system feel happier with every penny we remove.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:22 | 1597904 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Debtless. Only way to live brother.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:05 | 1598230 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Cleared all my debt in the spring... will never go back.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:29 | 1597725 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Don't worry TD Roubini was only right once in a big way while 0h has been right many more times on plethora of calls. Friday goes down the toilet as i believe it will and Roubini will can collect on his LONG SPAM positions into oblivion, with interest.


Cheeeerio & let's check in on Fri!



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:31 | 1597741 Justaman
Justaman's picture

I think Roubini forgot to say he's long spam AND toilet paper.  Every action has a reaction. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:31 | 1597744 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

NADA Zilch and above all the Salves of USA will pay for this shitz. I guess Americans are just pussies and a gay nation.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1597757 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The irony that people flock to the truth during times of market distress should be lost on no one. The fact that academia tries to shout it down is unfortunatelyTHE perennial truth. Which is why it is imporatant for us not to acknowledge our critics (Bank America comes to mind as well......????????) WE MUST RISE ABOVE THEIR INSOLENCE AND SCURRILOUS ATTACKS FELLOW ZH'ERS! LET US SHOW THE WORLD WE ARE BETTER!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:37 | 1597761 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"and according to Dr. Nouriel Roubini, we represent the anti-intellectual, lumpenproletariat..."

You're not following my instructions, you raggedy vagabond...maitre de!!!, remove this man from my presence immediately and bring me another bottle lest I give you both a good thrashing!...ROTFLMAO!!!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:26 | 1598489 StychoKiller
Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:37 | 1597765 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Hopefully some bear comes out of the woods near Jackson Hole and tears Bernankes head off, eats it and then shits down his throat!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:38 | 1597769 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Could we be setting up for another "emporer has no clothes" moment, like the debt ceiling debacle? The beauty of the system of tubes we call the Internet, is there is now a far larger, more diverse audience paying attention to what used to be financial esoterica, confined to some asterisked liner notes.

The details of anything are sure to disappoint, merely due to the buildup, the constant repetition of the acronym QE2 (something obviously designed to be a forgotten piece of trivia, not a power word for the mass cargo cult), and the basic fact that there is no Santa Claus, and if there was, he would not walk and talk like Benjamin Shalom Bernanke.

It's as if the whole world is listening. Even Europe has pressed the pause button on their systemic crisis to give Ben his moment.

I'm thinking EPIC fail here.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:46 | 1598092 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Absolutely right.  For years I just read books and hoped others were reading as well.  This train has some steam and I know there are plenty on board.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:29 | 1598493 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Quiet!  I'm trying to tune in my painted-rock radio, "Amos 'n Andy" are coming on... :>D

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:39 | 1597770 John Rotten
Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:45 | 1597790 traditionalfunds
traditionalfunds's picture

Guess you missed this.


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:49 | 1597800 John Rotten
John Rotten's picture

Yes, I did.  I just demoted myself (red arrow) for being clueless.


However, this now means it will happen?  When I wonder?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:40 | 1597776 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Yes, Yes, more lending to broke, unemployed consumers is the answer to this mess.  Are you fucking kidding me?????

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:25 | 1598416 Seer
Thu, 08/25/2011 - 06:30 | 1598495 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Oh glorious HypnoToad, can't you use yer marvelous powers of persuasion on them?? :>D

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:43 | 1597782 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Releveraging via new reserve basket - Lagarde

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:47 | 1597792 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

SolomonBrothersSmithBarneyWashingtonMutualCountryWideMerrillLynchAmTrustNewCenturyFinanciaBanklOfAmericaLongTermCapitalManagementLehmanBrothersEFHudsonAmeripriseIndymac, PLLC.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:46 | 1597793 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

If you know of "Relaxed Lending Standards" please disclose what bank you are dealing with? I agree... the fucking banks might as well be asking for first borns as collateral and DNA samples on applications these days, quite frankly the lending industry has never been this bad than current! It is 100% completely broken, completely fucked, with no end in sight. The whole system has to crash and burn hard and reset, otherwise the depression in housing will be a decade at a minimum to turn around! 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:49 | 1597801 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

What if the deposits are being retained because they know a chunk of the loans will not be repaid.  The deposits (bonds sold) need to be paid back with retained earnings/extra deposits rather than the cash flow from the loans.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:49 | 1597803 Justaman
Justaman's picture

Honestly, do we want relaxed lending standards again?  Isn't that one of the reasons we got into the mess we did and are still languishing in?  Capital and debt should not be easy to obtain and should cost more than 0.  Period. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:52 | 1597807 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

Banks arent going to loan money to people! simple as that. No matter how much money they have, they arent going to lend. period. The upper echelon of the banking world LOVE to hoard and squander those profits for themselves....The only way you can get a decent loan is if you have a credit score above 800

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:53 | 1597813 virgule
virgule's picture

The style of TD's contributions has changed over the past few days. Less cryptic and easier to grasp for a layman like myself. Must be a new addition to the team. Welcome on board!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:55 | 1597819 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:37 | 1597939 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

it has gotten clearer because there is a real crisis on hand again as opposed to the QE2 induced rally we have had the last year


crisis = bullish for zero hedge

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1597960 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

Agree.  A little less remorse directed toward "the man", less bite to the sarcasm.  Both are good, nice variety.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:54 | 1597814 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Anyone know the exact time of the speech?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:28 | 1598418 Seer
Seer's picture

Too late (and a dollar short)?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:00 | 1597833 kito
kito's picture

jackson hole will be a non event. ben will say nothing new. the market is foolish to trade otherwise

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:01 | 1597837 FranSix
FranSix's picture

According to Bloomberg, three month treasuries closed with negative yields:

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:08 | 1597853 kalum
kalum's picture

The Federal government has been and is the ENEMY. tOTALLY out of control. We need to take back the country sooner not later or it will die. And we will die with it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:29 | 1598420 Seer
Seer's picture

"We need to take back the country sooner not later or it will die."

I think I heard this from the natives...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:11 | 1597863 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture!/nouriel

check him out tyler. hell, if he wants to talk, he should come on and offer rebuttal or maybe also quit going out and hanging around with shiksas half his age...come on, come about childish bullshit on twitter. this coming from a guy who is supposedly a phd and a professor and a man in his mid 50's ....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1597957 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Roubini crying on Twitter is hillarious. What a schill.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:31 | 1598422 Seer
Seer's picture

Back when I roamed Roubini's forums I used to repeatedly call on Ruobini to explain how we could have "sustained economic growth" on a finite planet.  Never a peep...  And when he claimed that gold would never rise to/above $1,200/oz? I ran as far away from this stooge as I could.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:13 | 1597870 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Obama and Bernak want to keep their jobs

They will say what the market wants to hear

And the market will hear what they want to


And expect some european government magic to follow J-Hole.  Weekends are magical right now.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:14 | 1597875 zen0
zen0's picture

People need to pull out all their deposits. That would make everything ok. I will start tomorrow.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1597959 optimator
optimator's picture

You won't "start" with more than 3K and they'll say they want three or four business days notice to provide the balance of your account.  They'll also ask why you're asking for cash.  Do what I did, say you're buying expensive cars from a seller who is giving you a great cash deal! 

When banks don't lend, people with cash will lend above current rates to qualified business owners with good equity in their business and a good business plan requiring the loan. Why have money earning nothing when it can earn 11 to 14%?
Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:15 | 1597878 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

roubini thinks gold is in a downtrend. oh ok pal. i will gladly take the other side of that one. wait a minute. i already  did ,  a long time ago. these crybabies  are just mad they did not get on the gold train when it left the station in the early 2000's,,,,,

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:17 | 1597887 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

It will be operation twist.. The 'why' is beyond my patience and available time.

This shit is pretty stupid. Unlike the typical useful idiot, I've reacted as conditions call for and am about to cut the cord.

This fucking anything other than 'free-market' is dying. Kinda tough to be free in a zoo eh?'

The Politico's are killing evolution. Pretty funny on a long enough time line.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:17 | 1597889 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Why does anyone give a s what Roubini has to say. He still has trouble with the English language. Banks know what their books really look like and very few are in position to make any new loans or take on anymore risk. Think about the economy with respect to the job market or the housing market and tell me without laughing that you would add to your loan base if you were the banker.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:23 | 1597909 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

he used to be doctor doom but now he has completed his status quo msm mouthpiece standard flip flop and keynesian two step....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:20 | 1597896 kito
kito's picture

roubini thinks......that requires a brain....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:24 | 1597912 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

but but but the man is a poopfessor?????

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:26 | 1597918 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

the only blog roubini likes is his own where he offers up his opinions without cross....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:27 | 1597920 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Let's see if I've got this straight -

You're expecting the obnoxious, pompous asshole leader of the fractional reserve banking system that took trillions of OPM & lost it gambling on inflated housing loans which they broke up & sold to investors for a fee, to fix the real economy? When the intended purpose of the fractional reserve banking system is to mediate loans between savers & producers to grow the real economy.

This same asshole who printed out of thin air & loaned trillions to these fractional reserve banks at 0% & paid them interest to keep the loans at the fed to repair their balance sheets & keep the trillions from the real economy. And we all know about the asshole monetized the debt.  

You're expecting this stupid asshole to fix the real economy? Give me a break.   


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 02:42 | 1598362 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

Well with that attitude, mister, nothing will change. You need to think positive. Thiiink pooositive. Let's give this fellow a fair chance or two, don't you think? This is America, where anything is possible.

Ben Bernanke has that old fashioned can-do spirit, which is exactly what this country needs. He's like the little train that could - a paragon of persistence, whom we can use to illustrate that peculiar virtue to our children.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:29 | 1597923 constantine
constantine's picture

Anybody who follows Roubini and ZH knows that ZH makes more precise, detailed, and edgier predictions than Roubini.  They are also far more accurate.  Roubini is a well-paid CNBC hack, who after presenting himself as a bear, then continues to recommend all of the standard playbook, easy-money, low interest rate nonsense that is music to parasitic banker/trader ears who wouldn't know what to do if they were actually forced to produce something tangible like land-scapers, house painters, farmers and any others who scrape the Earth for a living.    


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:29 | 1597924 gwar5
gwar5's picture

It doesn't take a PhD to figure out that the debt and deficits are too big to overcome with stimulus, because it's obvious -- that's the point. Everybody else gets it, so how come the Keynesian PhDs aren't smart enough to figure this one out?  How come everybody else in the world gets it and the only stimulus freaks left on the planet are the American Keynesians??


I noticed Romer, Krugman, and Roubini are now bitter clingers, out making the MSM rounds defending Keynes. Every one of them points to econ books and papers -- all dogma from the same Keynesian rut. And that's fine, but where's the real world results to back it up? 

The uber-Keynesians in this WH got everything they wanted and failed miserably. Their welcome and their theories are worn out.  They didn't exacly light the world on fire under FDR either.

As a young economist, Milton Friedman was an economist for the FDR admin and realized that government programs and spending were not working, so he had the good sense to change his economic opinions accordingly.

"Universities are the only place were academics can come up with theories all day long and never once have to prove that they actually work". -- Thomas Sowell.



Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:39 | 1598425 Seer
Seer's picture

No one seems to get IT, Keynesians or anyone!

People blast Keynesian economics, yet, they turn around and give alternate "theories" to create "SUSTAINED economic growth."  PhDs aren't the only ones lacking proper education/understanding.  Simple math says that "SUSTAINED economic growth" is IMPOSSIBLE!  Anyone spouting otherwise, or failing to acknowledge the growth component in their arguments is NO better than these other clowns!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:29 | 1597925 gwar5
gwar5's picture

It doesn't take a PhD to figure out that the debt and deficits are too big to overcome with stimulus, because it's obvious -- that's the point. Everybody else gets it, so how come the Keynesian PhDs aren't smart enough to figure this one out?  How come everybody else in the world gets it and the only stimulus freaks left on the planet are the American Keynesians??


I noticed Romer, Krugman, and Roubini are now bitter clingers, out making the MSM rounds defending Keynes. Every one of them points to econ books and papers -- all dogma from the same Keynesian rut. And that's fine, but where's the real world results to back it up? 

The uber-Keynesians in this WH got everything they wanted and failed miserably. Their welcome and their theories are worn out.  They didn't exacly light the world on fire under FDR either.

As a young economist, Milton Friedman was an economist for the FDR admin and realized that government programs and spending were not working, so he had the good sense to change his economic opinions accordingly.

"Universities are the only place were academics can come up with theories all day long and never once have to prove that they actually work". -- Thomas Sowell.



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:36 | 1597933 constantine
constantine's picture

By the way, the money-fairies already promised low interest rates through 2013, which is esentially QE (my keyboard doesn't have an infinity symbol) so all of this QE discussion is a mind-trick.  Yes, I know technically it's a little different but does anybody really not think that the FED hasn't resorted to off-the-books activity.  At this point, they're no different than Madoff.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:11 | 1598235 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

<moronic comment self-edited>


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:36 | 1597938 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Reading above...all agreed.


Bring back the MOB;   it will all be settled out in 90 days.


no lawyers or contracts needed, and a handshake is good enough,

more honor.


Congress, da gubmint and regulators,  drop dead. Rent-a-crooks


this system can go down hard, for all I care.



kiss my Tush.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:38 | 1597941 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I've been doing exactly what the Fed wants me to do....


- Accept a credit card offer for 0% for 12-18 months (only those w/ excellent credit need apply)

- Put everything I can on said credit card

- Pay only the minimum each month

- Stash the cash in a high-yield savings account at 1.00% or so (thereby giving the banks even more $$ to play with via fractional reserve)

- Pay off the credit card right before the (real) interest rate kicks in (after 12-18 months)

- Wash, rinse, repeat


Guaranteed profit for me -- all the while doing the Fed's bidding.

I should add, using a cash-back rewards card makes this venture much more profitable for me.

Of course, should I decide to do use the float for other investment purposes, I may do so at my leisure (and potentially at my own peril).

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:21 | 1598414 bardian
bardian's picture

You fill the bag up enough, it eventually leaks. Doesn't matter that the lending restrictions have tightened, time preference will drive the inflation.... Destruction of capital will starve the beast....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:39 | 1597943 blindman
blindman's picture

the erroneous conclusion made by conformist elites is
that because all conceptual mind modeling is symbolically
translated then any tried symbol of power and coercion
will continue to work as a controlling and manipulating
influence on populations. they know not what they do, nor
how to do it. they missed a fact, a demographic fact that
will cannot be undone. boomers, educated, and with a certain
amount of self interest and piss and vinegar.
never mind
Buddy Miller : Wide River To Cross (solo)
Delusional Economics

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:55 | 1598104 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

It's going to be quite painful when enough of these Boomers look at retiring and see there's no money there for it. They'll dust off their SDS cards, brush up on all that Marx they read, and then hit the streets again with a vengeance.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:39 | 1597945 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

So all this blather regarding who gets what is about what? Greed. Power. Control,

You Nigga's need to start thinkin'.

God forbid that Liberty should become about empowering individuals over groups eh?


You look to infect the wrong nation.

I understand that the tide of history bodes ill for America. I also sign on to the concept that this idea of a nation still resonates as a viable reality in human hearts.

Ron Paul is my Barbie. But ( hate me as you have been taught) Sarah Palin is the radical we need.


Hated, attacked viciously by the elite. Proven record of being unconventional.

Sarah is our best bet precisely because that is the one that 'they' have shown the most contempt and fear of. The monster idiots who have brought us to this point despise Sarah because they fear her.

Now hate on me but my logic has merit worth consideration.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:24 | 1598045 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Not entirely true, she is a student of Kissenger = Globalist tendencies, and she is slightly retarded too. So, you end up with a female facsimile 
of G-Dub ya.

The Bad Guy.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:43 | 1597955 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Think the market, banks and WS are in for a surprise. Fed will do very little besides maintaining ZIRP, 'monitoring the situation' and maintaining QE lite and the current balance sheet. That will be depressing to WS where biz is drying up. Then later this fall we get the roll out of a brand new fiscal stimulus. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:47 | 1597964 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

It would have been nice if you had talked about the banks' net interest margin to see how the rate compression is affecting the net earnings.  I think with this chart people can understand why banks are raising their fees on everything (i.e. $5 ATM fees, etc) is because the reduced net interest margin has to be augmented with additional fee income; otherwise, their EBT will go negative. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:56 | 1597968 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

I wish they'd stop pretending to care about the economy.  It's blatantly obvious they don't.

TARP was done under the banner of saving banks so banks could start lending again.   Banks got saved but never started lending again.

Every bailout & stimulus since then, same thing, banks get saved (again) but never start lending again.

It's about banks and bonuses.  That's it. 

Fuck the economy, fuck the American people.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:57 | 1597997 David99
David99's picture

You are absolutely correct and looking good as well

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:14 | 1598246 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Was going to comment butt your avatar left me mesmerized.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 04:54 | 1598434 Seer
Seer's picture

The store was on fire a LONG time ago, and now the blatant looting is seen.  Regardless of the looting the store is still on fire.  It's the end of the empire, expansion finally stopped.  That this moment would come was never in question, the only question was at what time.

I have one question: What would people be "borrowing" for if people could "borrow" again?  I'm not thinking it'll be for those things that they'd been borrowing for in the past as there was utter saturation (such as housing; and, how many widescreen TVs, McMansions etc can people really use/have?).

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:46 | 1602683 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

It appears they (whoever "they"is) want the economy to collapse.  I can't imagine why they'd want it to collapse, but it appears that's the plan.

If that is the plan, it would explain what we're seeing, TBTF banks looting everything they can before the nation completely collapses, which explains the trillions in bailouts.  Yes, it's trillions.   700 billion TARP was just the tip of the iceberg.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:49 | 1597969 David99
David99's picture

Ben can't throw away QE3 when Dow is trading above 11,000 level

Fraud Street gang failed to bring below 9,000 level to justify asking for QE3

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:54 | 1597983 David99
David99's picture

Ben is the most useless person born on earth, totally idiot

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:55 | 1597989 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Hey Roub,
I catch you hob-nobbing at a party, yucking it up with some coeds; I'm gonna slap that stupid right out of your mouth.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:32 | 1598068 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

The Jackson A-Holes.  Does anyone there have the cajones to come out with a budget plan for the next 10 years that brings the deficit down to say 8 T ?  Why would that matter ? BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE FUCKIN WORLD WANTS YOU FUCKIN A HOLES NOT ANOTHER IDIOUS GAME OF "HONEY I BOUGHT OUR CREDIT CARD DEBT" .... FOR CHRIST'S SAKE EVEN MURDOCHS BARRONS CAME UT WITH A DECENT PLAN WHICH NO ONE HAS MENTIONED SINCE (TOO REAL).

So, spare me the fucking suspense with this Jackson Hole shit, please.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:28 | 1598273 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

You mad.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:53 | 1598099 TyCarrerra
TyCarrerra's picture

I tried to buy a 4-plex by the local university. The numbers were right -- actually, the rent I'd be getting would much more than mortgage and expenses. My salary can also cover the expenses even if I had zero tenants... The answer from the bank? It has to be a commercial real estate loan. I asked how much is the interest -- they do not do CRE's right now.... #*!#!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:09 | 1598124 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

Tyler has Roubini in full meltdown mode. 

"American anti-intellectualism is the first & last refuge of the scoundrel ignoramus bozos who pride themselves with their crass ignorance"   You odd-balls are a bunch ignoramus bozos!!  BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH!/nouriel
Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:15 | 1598133 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture



Roubini is going to be found highly intoxicated, running down 5th Avenue while nude - wearing only a gold, link chain around his neck - with a machete in hand, threatening bystanders with quips from Keynes & Paul Davidson, while making violent slashing motions.

He's close to the edge, man.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:22 | 1598143 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture


  I can picture him muttering to a wall, "Y-Y-Y-You increase tha tha tha G and that makes the GDP go up.  It's what they told m-m-m-m-me how to make things in the economy g-g-g-gooder."

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 02:09 | 1598322 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

LOL... Roubini has a hard on for you Tyler... Next he will be emailing you pics of his Weiner...

Talk about some one who is unfit and unskilled for the real economy...

Economics PhD
The high art of fallacy ridden mental masturbation... That makes Roubini the ultimate jack off...What a maroon....

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:20 | 1598139 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Roubini is an ass and I bet ya ass that the first thing he reads in the mornin is Zero Hedge. Did you ever notice how Roubini is always the last boy to leave the classroom? In other words he always comes with his assessments after every single economical mind in the country has spoken out. Or in other words a very parasitical mind. He reminds me of those Profs, when I was on University, who lean on the minds of their brilliant students.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:47 | 1598173 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Every possible option discussed by observers and so-called economists all point to the same fundamental problem: nothing is different in approach nor will it help the real economy.

Bottomline: the farce of a recovery continues while the real underlying fundamentals decompose even faster-- sooner or later (maybe when its politically cool to attack the financial institutions) will the stench of a rotting economy be too strong for markets to ignore and any attempt to paint lipstick or add blush to give the illusion of life via central bank or any other central planning attempt to push and pull levers will have the half life of farting in the wind.

Put that in your menaingless phd's economists and smell it. By the way, aren't these the same phd's that said a weak dollar would do wonders for our economy? A lot of good that did. Let's call a spade a spade and call this so-called weak dollar policy for what it is: transfer of wealth.

Destroy the cancer before a healin can begin i.e. destroy debt, end central banking, reform the financial system, and reform the political process and take away all the power from the few institutions that hold it. They've failed and their interests are very much maligned.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:55 | 1598208 narnia
narnia's picture

Seems to me the plan is to (1) pay depositors nothing, (2) earn the spread between permanement low rates & tons of fixed rate mortgages, for which they are exposed, (3) manage the foreclosure process to avoid a price crash, (4) recover principal & some interest losses from the GSEs, (5) cover the other losses through Fed reserves...  and plug along until the next bubble comes along.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:57 | 1598213 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture



That would be 'the plan.'

I doubt it works, but kudos to you for so succinctly laying out the playbook of The Bernank & Jeetner.

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