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Charting The Deterioration Of Bank Self-Assessed Counterparty Risk Through 3 Month USD Libor
When it comes to counterparty risk, one can look at CDS, for an indication of how the market view a given bank's counterparty risk, or, one can observe how the banks themselves evaluate each other, courtesy of daily Libor fixings by bank. When it comes to Europe it is well known that dollar funding pressures are the most representative of overall liquidity stress. As such, we look at the 3 Month USD libor for various BBA-reporting banks. The picture, over the past month, is not pretty, especially if one is Barclays or RBS. The chart says it all.
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Looks like a chart of all my gold stocks.
Good one Hedge :)
But are you ready ?
For those that made a few benniebucks today fading that fat man in the bath tub......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDp3Grz28mE
the higher the CDS, the closer to God? That's a good thing right?
Like there's a God. Too funny
Don't know about that.. but i sure know some people are trying to do God's job..
How's this compare to circa 2007-2009?
I keep track here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0003M:IND The Fed rate makes it difficult to compare.
What about the CDS on Canadian banks? Any action there?
Slightly wider only due to overall market deterioration. But CAD CDS arent often traded anyway.
'Looks like a seizemygraft
Except that we now know that LIBOR itself is manipulated by the evildoers, per the Schwab lawsuit against Citi, BoA et al.
So add that to the magic 8 ball.
I'm afraid Jim in MN is correct. No one wants to report a relatively high LIBOR to the BBA as that telegraphs weakness and counterparty risk. LIBOR isn't as reliable an indicator as it once was (if it ever was).
So they're all even more fucked than it appears?
By a very wide margin. CDS spreads give a better picture.
What about EURIBOR? I wonder how they even calculate that now that there is such an enourmous spread between EUR issuers.
What? EURIBOR calculated same way LIBOR is. The former by an EU org, the latter by the Brits (i.e. largest global banks)
From Wikipedia:
Do you see the problem? Hard to know what is a 'prime' bank anymore in the Eurozone. I mean, would you lend to a Greek or Italian bank at EURIBOR? What about SocGen? Are they really AAA? I guess that's why money markets are so volatile now, and the CDS market so big.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgptvsHHYK4&feature=related
New item in your series of interest:
Working Paper No. 11/206:
The Taxation and Regulation of Banks
Author / Editor: Keen, Michael
Summary: The financial crisis has prompted a reconsideration of the taxation of financial institutions, with practice outstripping principle: France, Germany, the United Kingdom and several other European countries have now introduced some form of bank tax, and the U.S. administration has revived its own proposal for such a charge. This paper considers the structure, appropriate rate, and revenue yield of corrective taxation of financial institutions addressed to two externalities, consequent on excessive risk-taking, prominent in the crisis: those that arise when such institutions are simply allowed to collapse, and those that arise when, to avoid the harm this would cause, their creditors are bailed out. It also asks whether corrective taxation or a regulatory capital requirement is the better way to address these concerns. The results suggest a potential role for taxing bank borrowing, perhaps as an adjunct to minimum capital requirements, at marginal rates that rise quite sharply at low capital ratios (but are likely lower when the government cannot commit to its bailout policy), reaching levels higher than those of the bank taxes so far adopted or proposed.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25196.0
Don't worry, if NYC gets hit, BANK HOLIDAY coming
A scheduled Bank Holiday in Britain on Monday. Now that's what I call 'priced in.'
Rickards: The central bankers are treating all the problems as if there's a liquidity problem, when it's a structural debt problem, a solvency problem.
and a crisis of confidence. No one trusts bank balance sheets (BS for short) now. Confidence is the linchpin of banking.
I noticed that a Canadian bank the Bank of Nova Scotia, is spiking. They are also a PM depository. Hmmm.
UBS: "Wait for me guys!"
Three days ago CDS markets were looking gloomy - and they are getting gloomier. We get three days of no volume meltups, then the see equity selling pressure coming through. IMO, stocks last session got off lightly. Market is starting to trend down into lower supports.
It's full on CRAZY TRAIN now. JP Morgan is days away from becomimg the biggest bank in human history-but dont mistake that for being profitable. They're tied to the mast of Obama's economy and i would call this behemouth a failure of Gigantism. Stay small and nimble as the blow ups of state and local governments has just begun and all those "bailout bucks" that have been promised fail to materialize.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MLp7YNTznE&feature=player_detailpage