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Charting Equity's Hype/Hope

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On this slow news and market action day it is worth noting that Equities and Treasuries have dramatically dislocated in the last few days with Treasury yields near multi-month lows and stocks at one-month highs. Whether this is the ($700 billion expected) QE3-trade or a reflection of the increasingly bifurcated world in which we live is unclear but for certain this is the largest disconnect (with equities rich) of the year so far.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2385521 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Ben! Jesus Man! For the last time, where the F are you?!?!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2385588 Ben Burnyankme
Ben Burnyankme's picture

He's pulling an AAPL out of his keister.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:14 | 2385750 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

This divergence should close: by next week ES will be at 1310. 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:31 | 2385538 5880
5880's picture

We aren't trading markets anymore

It's the whims of the elected

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:32 | 2385548 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Hype -> hope. .. It's only a letter awayyyyyyyyy

Wed, 05/02/2012 - 23:15 | 2392904 meimei
meimei's picture

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Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2385564 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I'm scared.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:37 | 2385580 Kristian
Kristian's picture

Jaws of death?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:36 | 2385855 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Gator mouth.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:38 | 2385585 Darkness
Darkness's picture

LONG PHYSICAL GOLD

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:54 | 2385650 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

don't front run it..   fuel, silver crbq etc are saying there's another take down out there just over the horizon.. but then THEN! 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2385627 walküre
walküre's picture

I just tried to call over at Ben's office. Nobody is answering the phone. I see Army choppers landing and taking off from Lower Manhattan rooftops. They're being "raptured" and we're the ones left behind. Sweet Jesus' got nothing to do with it though.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2385628 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Divergence followed by convergence.

Below is an "elliott waved" chart of the SP500 that points down.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/hourly/

 

If this changes, an email notification is sent:

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/members/signup/

 

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:57 | 2385663 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Headline caught my eye:

Monster Shares Soar on Rumors of Coke Deal.

Turns out they were talkin' about Coca-Cola, though. Damn. That could have been a deal worth buying into.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/monster-shares-soar-rumors-coke-164651604....

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:58 | 2385672 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Tyler, will there be an article discussing the Tilson BKS fraud... Uh I mean flip flop?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:01 | 2385686 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It's just humiliating to be Tilson now. He admitted to charging 2 and 20 merely to piggyback on VIC reports: that's not even worth of Boiler Room rank amateurism.

Granted his AUM can be counted on one hand, but we are happy to provide the same service for a far lower fee.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:05 | 2385701 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Thanks. My best ideas come from Barrons and allpennystocks.com.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:58 | 2385673 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

that was AAPL spike+ END OF MONTH WINDOWDRESSING starting 4-23, now they dump. Nuke them all. Fumigate the Primary Dealers.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2385675 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

So, just for fun,  let's do a

ZH member's survey on how you think this disconnect will get rectified in the next few days:

 

If you think S&P is about to PLUNGE:  click on RED/DOWN arrow

If you think Treasury yields are about to POP: click on GREEN/UP arrow

 

(if you're not signed in to ZH you won't see these arrows...)

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 15:13 | 2386008 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

----------->  (Sideways arrow = I don't have the slightest fucking idea, maybe a bit of both.)

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:06 | 2385715 barliman
barliman's picture

 

So we have a $ 700 billion USD divergence to close

Multiply by 3, add the square root of pi, divide by zero ...

By my math, starting at zero on the short end of the curve and maxing out at + 0.65% on the 30 year (the 10 year has a bit of kink in the distribution) takes care of the Tresury curve

and then, taking the cube root of Ben's IQ and multiplying that by  average X Factor female judge bust sizes (Simon Cowell is the root of cultural rot) ...

Say a quick 378 points of the S&P .... yep, closed the convergence for you.

Now of the tricky part (timing), I need fresh chicken entrails ...

barliman

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 15:14 | 2386013 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Buy way far the best laugh of the morning. THANKS!

This sideways drift today is getting tedious...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:10 | 2385729 ekm
ekm's picture

Equities have gone in backwardation. Future price is much lower than the current price so primary dealers are forced to buy up the market in order not to lose market value. Same as for commodities.

Case in point: BAC volume was just 120 mil on Friday on a average of 270 mill. Right now is at about 77 mil with 2 hours remained.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:15 | 2385760 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Does volume alone show backwardation, or are there other factors you are using to come to this conclusion?  (Not disagreeing, just curious - thanks).

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 16:14 | 2385877 ekm
ekm's picture

Pure opinion out of daily observation.

I've been watching BAC every 10 minutes here at work it been 1 year already, every day (I do not work in finance, I'm  an engineer). I think BAC is the best barometer for the market.

 

3.45pm only 104 million BAC shares traded.

118 million at close of day. Practically zero.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:37 | 2385849 walküre
walküre's picture

HFTs and Algos are deserving a break.

Seriously, the volume is so ridiculously low .. it makes you wonder if they turned the computers off. It doesn't make any sense for them to run the programs and the machines when they can't flip the stocks to "dumb" money.

Ever since MF Global and Goldman's "Muppets" has the market deteriorated to a point where it will eventually flat line.

This market is comatose without central bank intervention. What does that really mean? That means that the show is quite literally coming to an end. They survived another 4 years after Bear and Lehman but it was on borrowed time.

We're officially done now. No more tricks, no more gimmicks. Just done. Give it a few weeks before it finally sinks in and the calls for redemptions are coming in. More redemptions than the system can handle and no amount of liquidity guarantee could put a floor under the market. By this time, the efforts would be pointless as it has been demonstrated again and again that the money simply doesn't exist and that fractional reserve lending was never meant to come to an end.

Enjoy the peace and quiet as long as it lasts for it will get ugly real soon.

Try and place short bets at your own peril. They won't allow you to collect even when you're in the money.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:41 | 2385882 ekm
ekm's picture

Wagner would have been proud of you.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:45 | 2385893 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

"Try and place short bets at your own peril. They won't allow you to collect even when you're in the money."

 

Please explain this a little more, especially the "they won't allow you to collect" part.  Thanks.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:58 | 2385937 walküre
walküre's picture

In my estimation, the next downdraft or bank run will not be allowed to benefit anyone. When a vast majority seeks to redeem and convert into tangibles, the arteries will dry up. If you're in the money on equities, you can sell and redeem and convert. It would be unwise to speculate on a market crash or collapse and hope to make multiples in short sales. I could be wrong though. The CBs have way too much riding on this and the attention to financial markets and financial news is greater than ever.

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