Charting May (Day): The Markets Hit A Brick Wall

Tyler Durden's picture


May is a month most would like to forget, especially those short IG 9-18 (and understandably so: in a world in which the virtuous cycle is now broken, and in which the only upside catalyst is central planner intervention, the money printers have been eerily silent). So just to remind readers of everything that happened in the past month, here are 95 slides from MS with the definitive summary of, well, everything that happened in the past month.


Source: Morgan Stanley (pdf)

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Sat, 06/02/2012 - 12:49 | 2487290 q99x2
q99x2's picture

On an elevator to hell. Going down. 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:37 | 2487469 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

or the music of the eternalSouthbound...goin down...

graham nash david crosby - SouthboundTrain
Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:57 | 2487747 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

play it loud on a  "Stormy Monday"

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 21:50 | 2488165 philipat
philipat's picture

Muppetology in advance then 20/20 hindsight.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 12:47 | 2487292 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

How about another 95 slides on what's going to happen this month?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:02 | 2487318 piliage
piliage's picture

Perhaps a visit from Future Man?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 12:50 | 2487295 misterc
misterc's picture

I'm full of vim for monday morning:

Merkel wants
1) Spain to take money from EFSF to recap banks
 in order to limit the fallout from GREXIT.

And mainstream media writes about a German paper supplier of De La Rue (banknote printing company) ramping up production...


(German, use Google Translate) 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:23 | 2487360 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

From the Spiegel article: "...German government experts expect the recapitalisation of the Spanish banks requires between 50 and 90 billion euros".

Oh boy, that's the same math they used two years ago when the found out Greece had a liquidity problem and only needed guarantees.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:51 | 2487626 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

In other words, multiply by 10x to get the pre-money value for the second round of financing.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 18:48 | 2487915 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Or about ten times the taxes they could plug from already
half dead Mittelstand companies or their aging founders with no successors in sight...the third robbing in as many wars on Germany might end in ?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 12:52 | 2487299 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Interesting, but unclear looking forward if it is no better than trying to drive a car with wobbly wheels in drive at 100mph while looking out the rear window.



Sat, 06/02/2012 - 12:58 | 2487310 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sell in April and go away.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:11 | 2489315 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

unless you look closer at price action. Monthly, seasonal & election-cycle signals are there but they are input, not output. The actual output for best gains from peaks & dips is a little off from that. Try looking at cycles around 240 trading days, 260, 430, 520 and 130 for a few select items.

In gold I found a cyclic match to repeated price action that's a 277-week period. Who knows why it's there but it's certainly not random.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:02 | 2487320 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Coffee down 29% YTD .....yet the high retail price lingers. Laws on retail price fixing are a complete farce

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 00:19 | 2488459 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Dude, coffee is down because most of us have switched to fuckin Nescafe.  No $200 a week coffee habit for me till this is over.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 00:50 | 2488492 Itch
Itch's picture

Everything is the same, it goes up with inflation and "forgets" to ever come back down. I paid £3 for a coffee last week, in the same week i bought 500 teabags for £3, hence if i made the small effort to change drinks i would go on to save £1497. If you drink 2-3 cups of tea a day, insted of coffee, that is a saving of about £3000 yearly...thats a chunk of money, who budgets' for 3k in coffee?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:09 | 2489312 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I did. I got enough coffee to make a cup a day from a bag of beans for around $20 cdn probably for 8 months. I got a grinder for $20. I have a cup (gift) I estimate is $10 or so - a travel french press mug.

Maybe tea would be cheaper but I don't like tea.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:07 | 2487327 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Sell in May and go away
June is Punch a banker a day
Bernanke thinks he will have the last say
But he will never keep the PIGS at bay

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:10 | 2487331 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Impressive 95 slides, yet, the Morgan Stanley forgot to mention their very own troubles. Or were they able to find some 7bn additional collateral (worst case scenario) for their upcoming downgrade? Maybe the Ben Bernank can help?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:35 | 2487392 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Actually make that $9.6 billion, or more than a third of the market cap: "Margin Stanley Is Back: Bank Must Post $10 Billion In Collateral In Case Of 3 Notch Downgrade"

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 00:21 | 2488461 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Teh Morgan Stanley will be capitalized, there is no concern, have you seen the flowers yesterday?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:27 | 2487369 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Not surprising. Hear is what was NOTdiscussed about the miserable jobs report.

Since July 2010 (recovery summer I), the number of people going on disability was 170,000 GREATER than the decline in unemployment!!!!!

This the all the progress that wsa made for an additional $2+ trillion in Federal debt?

This is insanity and we WILL hit a brick wall!

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 13:58 | 2487423 dolph9
dolph9's picture

We are on the cusp of the second phase of the metals bull market.  My rough target is $5000 gold and $250 silver.

NEVER believe that the digits on your bank account screen or the bills in your wallet are savings.  It's fiat currency, it can be conjured at will at infinite amounts.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:10 | 2487436 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Gold is a "commodity"?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:30 | 2487568 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nope:  money

now we might get the "social contract" types who confuse money with currency to react how we simply need to do ?  and ?  and then use their "money" ?  and everything will be fiiiine, b/c they are really smart and you and i are really dumb and our avatars should just get a room or something

ya wanna?  this chart porn is dialing slewie to:  turgid, BiCheZ!  L0L!!!

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 00:24 | 2488465 potlatch
potlatch's picture

I has a social contract

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:20 | 2487455 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Apparently the connection between oil, the US economy collapsing, and our equity markets has finally been realized by the Saudis.....wait until the rest of the Persian Gulf nations open for trade tomorrow!!!!

Saudi TASI Stock Market Plummets after Dismal Friday on Wall Street
Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:20 | 2487456 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

How Morgan Stanley Sank to Junk Pricing

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:25 | 2487462 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Did they mention their Facbook IPO  fiasco, and how it put the Kiss of death on equities?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:06 | 2487535 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Greek bank holiday tomorrow and Monday...hmmm, could the markets know something we don't? Just a thought.

Commodity prices down, treasury rates down, employment down, equities down. Nothing like creating fear to drive prices down so Bernanke has room to PRINT!

As for those toxic assets sitting on the banks' balance sheets across the globe, they're only toxic in a deflationary environment. Create some inflation and VOILA! The depressed price reflates.

Print or die commrades!


Sat, 06/02/2012 - 19:04 | 2487930 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Long hard summer for doomsters , lots of holidays bank and beach and the lot until nobody cares. Next year same.

Try to get wet or even swim. I know , water is wet and disgusting...

After war, I promise, I`ll attend a diving course, seriously!

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:27 | 2487578 JohnG
JohnG's picture

That was just depressing.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 17:25 | 2487746 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

did you see see slide 20? 

gold sentiment at bearish lows? 

being corrected already, too!         

rh l

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:36 | 2487698 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

There are interesting confluences for this first week of June of 2012......


Biderberg meeting

Greece banks on a holiday

Markets have the biggest sell off of 2012 the prior Friday

GOLD jumps $60

Bank runs in Spain and some places in China

  Something major's up next week!!!!


Sat, 06/02/2012 - 17:07 | 2487762 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

USD was down, but Oil, in spite of this, was way down.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 18:33 | 2487892 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

The greatest bubble lies in gold, we were told.

That long timed investor is right , I suppose.

For all us double bubble charged tulip precious metal freaks, let's meet at the corner bar, 5pm after the war...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 20:09 | 2488007 unununium
unununium's picture

Why are all the European yield curves so flat at the long end?

Mon, 06/04/2012 - 06:17 | 2491018 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Oil slammed down again, DOW to follow - 2012 05 03 oil vs dow | goldpricemodel

2012 03 26 dow vs oil | Flickr - goldpricemodel

patterns holding

my only active play: short FB :D


yes, I could have tried again for vxx and should have tried long gld as well but... just a nibble. FB short is easy money.

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