• Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.
  • Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.

Charting The Paradox Of Surging Q3 GDP

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Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:15 | 1817274 prains
prains's picture

Somewhere in between the two is where the unicorns grow

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:21 | 1817307 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This chart indicates a SURGE in consumer confidence as that spread reverts to normal. This is the time to buy retail stocks. I just KNOW it.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:32 | 1817359 pupton
pupton's picture

Is this guy for real, or is this just his "Shtick"?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:43 | 1817383 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Shtick. 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:46 | 1817395 Endgamer
Endgamer's picture

He is JMK's colon.  I am FAH's complete lack of surprise.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:48 | 1817402 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Probably spends hours try to be clever. Pass it by like all us do.

But everyone here must be thankful to centrally planned bankers who help their banker buddies at expense of people. Look at Goldman Sachs, last two days, and at gasoline price. Thank you Obama, thank you Bernanke, thank you EU for fucking the people.

Poll show most people in this country don't care about stock market, but care about gas price. This will make easier for Ron Paul election. Keep going.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:59 | 1817453 eureka
eureka's picture

Or - two alternative explanations:

A)  US government is evil - lies, and manufactures GDP data as "needed"

B)  US consumers are idiots - and, really DO spend, even when depressed - or even more so when depressed, i.e. compensatory and self-destructive behavior a la "let's party cause we're all gonna be broke and or dead next quarter. 

So - which is it?

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:03 | 1817470 pupton
pupton's picture

Uhhh, we all know that is a trick quesiton and the anser is "C" all of the above.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:14 | 1817519 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

No C answer is inflation.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 14:10 | 1818039 11b40
11b40's picture

None of these is mutually exclusive.  Just keep adding to the list.

Remeber, too, you can buy a lot of trinkets at the mall if you skip the house payment.

 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 00:43 | 1819901 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Actually, I think that you have it. Normally inflation is subtracted from the gross GDP figures to get "real" GDP. However, we have seen a lot of data suggesting that inflation is "under calculated" becaue of the exclusion of food and energy and overweighting of housing.

Sure it is very possible that our government would simply lie. However, if they just calculate the numbers in a way that yileds the result they want, then they don't really have to lie, just change the definition of truth.

My guess is that is the numbers are not just simply taken at face value and instead given a sanity test, the resultin chart would be better correlated.  

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 14:08 | 1818022 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

 

Here's a snippet from www.Consumermetrics.com:

"...per-capita disposable income...was reportedly shrinking at an annualized -1.7% rate during the third quarter (and a -2.32% annualized rate using the BLS CPI as a deflater)."

So, consumer confidence is at almost historic lows, salaries are dropping like a rock, price of gas is rising again, and gross margins are being squeezed like there is no tomorrow.  And this all leads to consumers spending like it's 1999??  Something does not smell right - maybe consumers are self-medicating with big screen TV's and iphones, but I'm not betting the farm on this one...

Remember that bear market rallies always end with GOOD news - once the good news is priced in all the buyers are gone and look out below...  Now it's reality time - all the rumor cash just got suckered into the market...     

 

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:02 | 1817468 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

I believe it is his Shtick, and let me tell you, evey now and then he comes up with some really funny shit.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:14 | 1817523 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

You have easy sense of humor. Knock, Knock

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:50 | 1817406 qussl3
qussl3's picture

1991 - 1997 does support that assertion tho.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:22 | 1817312 quintago
quintago's picture

Not unicorns, visa and mastercard. Look at V for Vendetta's numbers today...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:27 | 1817337 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Looks like they are trying to pull a 1991 on us. 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:36 | 1817368 pupton
pupton's picture

Other than the divergenece on the chart in 91, do you know what happened back then?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:31 | 1817356 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

according to the BLS, if (rare) unicorns go up in price, they don't exist, because people will substitute horses which are cheaper, so there is no price increase.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:56 | 1817714 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I haven't heard the old saw "Pent Up Consumer Demand" that was rolled out by main stream media in past recessions... But I no longer watch MSM.

If there was a real recovery in personal consumption going on wouldn't I see more people shopping... around here stores/malls are almost empty...with many boarded up.

 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 14:15 | 1818056 11b40
11b40's picture

Let me tell you what else was empty this past week......reports are coming to me that the semi-annual Canton Fair was the deadest EVER.  Europen buyers were few and far between, and the American contingent is down, too.

Plus, get ready for more price increases.  The buzz from China is that between labor and currency adjustments, expect jumps nearing 8% very soon, with more to follow.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:16 | 1817275 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

If inflation is pushing up prices, thereby pushing up nominal prices paid for PCE component, it could explain the bump.

 

I read that if we were using the CPI model used in the 80s, CPI would be printing at an annualized rate of 11%!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:21 | 1817308 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Via Shadowstats:

September’s Annual Inflation: 3.9% (CPI-U), 4.4% (CPI-W), 11.5% (SGS)

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:28 | 1817343 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

core number was 2.2%? but there was an outlier in Apparel which was running about 1% consisently and suddenly threw in a minus 1%? take that away and core and headline are very close

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:31 | 1817354 machineh
machineh's picture

Even according to official data, CPI-U accelerated 2.9% annualized, from the 3 months ending in June to the 3 months ending in Sept. [Table 2, latest CPI report].

At the same time, BEA claims that the GDP deflator DROPPED by 1.3% annualized.

While there are some differences between CPI and GDP deflator, in this case we've got a 4.2% spread between them, and THE SIGNS DON'T EVEN AGREE.

Conclusion: the flash GDP report has been 'shaked 'n baked,' Soviet style. The tills are thronged in the Consumers Paradise, comrades -- never mind your lying eyes!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:44 | 1817386 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

It looks like a case of an inaccurate deflator.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:52 | 1817421 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It's phantom growth.  If Q3 GDP was growing that strong, jobless claims would likely be trending down, not stuck above 400K.  I call bullshit on the headline data.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:43 | 1817382 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The SGS number seems correct to me. Yesterday I bought a 12-pack of my favorite non-alcoholic beer. The price had risen to $10.49 from a previous $9.49. That's around 11%, right? Time to switch to beer with alcohol; at least it'll make me numb to these price increases.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:45 | 1817391 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What is "non-alcoholic beer?"

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:01 | 1817461 JohnG
JohnG's picture

O'doules, or Nobeer (actual brands) aka water.  And taste like it. 

I like beer, it makes me a jolly good fellow,

I like beer, and sometimes it makes me feel mellow.....

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:38 | 1817374 MJ
MJ's picture

First thing I thought of.  Well done.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:16 | 1817531 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Yeah, it´s most likely inflation. Also, who knows, the govt. beancounters could have adjusted the computing methodology.

In such a debt-laden economy anything under 5% growth probably constitutes recession, for all practical purposes.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:15 | 1817277 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Growth on personal consumption...

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in the second.

except...

Current-dollar personal income increased $29.5 billion (0.9 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $145.7 billion (4.6 percent) in the second.

Disposable personal income increased $17.0 billion (0.6 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $110.5 billion (3.9 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.

People are buying on credit again. They have learned NOTHING.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:25 | 1817325 Sir Real
Sir Real's picture

Yes they have.

Debt re-payment is optional. 

Thank you Greece for showing us the way;-)

Live for today because tomorrow is tomorrow.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:29 | 1817344 espirit
espirit's picture

+1 Yes, and yes. Buy now, and let someone else take a haircut on your debt later on.

Live, laugh, spend - Bitchez.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 14:19 | 1818073 11b40
11b40's picture

BUY NOW!......for tomorrow you may have no credit.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:15 | 1817279 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

GDP numbers are nonsense unless from shadowstats...

Back to Europe where the magic just keeps going in time for the holidays:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-26/euro-rescue-fund-chief-goes-to-...

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:35 | 1817366 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not a Shadowstats thing.

This is gasoline and food.  Gasoline is up 23% from this time last year.

Spending on those are up sharply from last year.  But rent holds down the inflation number for overall adjustment purposes.

The result is apparent increases in spending well beyond "inflation".  This yields a GDP increase.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:15 | 1817280 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

Unsustainable.  Consumer spending is set to fall off a cliff to bring it in-line with where it should be...in the crapper along with the economy.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:16 | 1817284 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

1991 all over again?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:20 | 1817306 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

that's what it looks like to me.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:22 | 1817314 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

What was 1991 exactly?  I was a little young then to pay attention to or understand these matters.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:50 | 1817414 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The George H.W. Bush mini-recession was right around then. The MSM made a big thing out of it even after it ended. "It's the economy, stupid" got Bush 1 kicked out of office (good riddance) and Willie Clinton elected. The latter was much more entertaining, in a sick sort of way.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:01 | 1817460 pupton
pupton's picture

So are you saying that in 1991 the economy and consumers perceptions (confidence) of it were "talked down" by the MSM in order to slay GHWBush in 1992? 

That may be true, back then, but do we really think the consumer confidence is being artificially talked down now?  Or, is it that 9% unemployment (Gov't stats are low too), housing bust, record deficits, Massive bailouts, Europe on the brink, etc, etc, etc. are REAL and that consumers have a good reason to be afraid.  If so, they why are they (allegedly) out spending their money?  OR ARE THEY???  Is the author implying that the data do not support each other and we should be suspicious?

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 12:17 | 1817542 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I was only talking about 1991-1992. The recession ended even as the MSM railed against Bush prior to the election. I don't recall Clinton, after assuming office, blaming everything on Bush 1 because by 1993 things had gotten better and continued to improve. Now it seems to be the opposite. Everything the MSM comes out with appears intended to make us feel better, not worse. Look at all the hoopla about Obama's worthless plans for mortgage refinancing, student loans, shovel-ready jobs, etc. None of his plans were worth the newsprint wasted on them. I suspect that if this were Bush 2 part 3 (good riddance to him, too) the MSM would be trumpeting the SGS statistics as an indication of how bad things really are. Common thread: MSM loves Democrats, hates Republicans, even the Bush RINOs.

I'll end this clearly: be very suspicious of everything you hear or read, whether it's from the MSM, the Feds, or even ZH.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 14:59 | 1818233 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

Thanks for the explanation.  Obama is and has been a complete disaster of failures and corruption to the extent we have never seen.  If all we had to go off of was MSM, everything would seem to be as right as gumdrops and rainbows.  Thanks god for alternative media sites, such as this one, which gives us the straight scoop!

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:27 | 1817333 Hero Protagonist
Hero Protagonist's picture

As long as someone invents another catalyst maybe so...

 

...however, something tells me that solar, wind, green energy, et.al  != Windows, Internet, et.al.

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:17 | 1817289 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

So there is some benefit to "Retail Therapy". 

Thu, 10/27/2011 - 11:20 | 1817290 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Simple.

100's of billions of dollars from government hand-outs and people not paying their mortgages for up to 3 years flooding into the consumption machine that would otherwise come out of their ever-dwindling pocketbook.

Oh...and what lolmao500 said...... Credit Cards i.e., Debt Serfdom.

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