Charting Premature Jubilation - The US Economic Growth Momentum Is Now Over

Tyler Durden's picture

It is funny to hear the talking heads preface virtually every bullish statement with "the US economic data is getting better." It's funny because it's wrong. We have been tracking economic data based on our universe of indicators and as of today we have seen a miss rate of about 80%. And now, Deutsche Bank has joined us in keeping track of economic beats and misses, with their own universe of 31 economic indicators. The results are shown below and the verdict is in: the US economy has officially turned the corner... lower, now that the seasonally adjusted boost from a record warm winter fades and becomes an actual drag (not to mention the fading of the $2 trillion in central bank liquidity).

From DB:

As can be seen in the chart above, using this basket the beat:miss ratio for January was a fairly solid 55%:42% (3% in line) before improving to a strong 65%:35% in February. March, however, is seeing a rise in misses with the ratio now running at 37%:56% (7% in line) with 27 out of 31 releases now in. Regional manufacturing surveys and some housing related data are leading the misses in March. Indeed in February we saw all regional surveys (NY, Philly,  Richmond, Chicago Fed, Kansas, Dallas, Chicago PMI) better relative to market consensus. We will get the Kansas Fed data today and Chicago PMI tomorrow, but we have so far seen misses in Richmond, Chicago and Dallas Fed surveys this month. In terms of the housing market, existing home sales, the house price index, pending home sales, and new home sales all disappointed in March while all of these (except for new home sales) were better than expected in February...

Remember: we have been saying since December that 2012 is a carbon copy of 2011. As a reminder the market peaked in April 2011 after a virtually identical diagonal ramp higher, only to be followed by the August debt ceiling fiasco which sent stocks to their lows. And as we showed yesterday, this year we expect the debt ceiling to be breached in mid to late September. Just in time for the elections.

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SilverIsKing's picture

Green shoots as far as the eye can see although when one looks through a pair of binoculars, all they can see is a steaming pile of dog shit.  Funny how that works.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

From those green shoots comes peas.  Eat your fucking peas!

Fukushima Sam's picture

If this warm and dry weather continues then it seems likely we could be looking at real problems come harvest time...

Dr. Richard Head's picture

This hit/miss index is showing a frost is taking over those green shoots as well.

rosiescenario's picture

"From the dung heap the lily grows".

RussellChester8's picture

my friend's sister makes $74/hr on the computer. She has been out of a job for seven months but last month her check was $17871 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this site ....

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Fed economist to soon meet with an unfortunate and untimely end" will be the next headline.

AN0NYM0US's picture

here is the actual presentation from Emmons of the St Louis Fed on Mortgage Debt

LawsofPhysics's picture

A comparison of volume between 2011 and 2012 will be useful.  More HFT and Fed/PD traders in "control" now.

DeadFred's picture

All the index levels are now sitting on their trend lines. Each time this has happened in the last few months 'something' has magically appeared to ramp things back up. Will this time be different? The next 30 hours will tell. It has to break sometime, but when?

BudFox2012's picture

You know things are getting bad when they lie on every indicator yet still miss their expections...

chunga's picture


...even their estimates on how wrong they always are aren't ever right.

tekhneek's picture

Fuckin' A right.

When you determine the score how bad do you have to suck at the game to get it wrong, time after time again?

MachoMan's picture

close enough for government work

ejmoosa's picture

In 2009, year over year profits rose 6.29%

In 2010, year over year profits had risen 32.17%

In 2011, that rate of improvement was 7.91%.


Draw your own conclusions about whether or not the economy is getting stronger.


tmosley's picture

And how do you think you know that?

toady's picture

.gov says it all....

How can you tell if a politician is lying?

His lips are moving.

Or he's posting a paper on a .gov site!

Quinvarius's picture

No they didn't.  When the government gives a bank money, or overpays a bank for worthless assets, it isn't a profit.

lolmao500's picture

Romney : closing factories and laying off thousands is funny

At the outset of the call, Romney said he has some connections to Wisconsin.

“One of most humorous I think relates to my father. You may remember my father, George Romney, was president of an automobile company called American Motors … They had a factory in Michigan, and they had a factory in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and another one in Milwaukee, Wisconsin,” said Romney. “And as the president of the company he decided to close the factory in Michigan and move all the production to Wisconsin. Now later he decided to run for governor of Michigan and so you can imagine that having closed the factory and moved all the production to Wisconsin was a very sensitive issue to him, for his campaign.”

Romney said he recalled a parade in which the school band marching with his father’s campaign only knew the Wisconsin fight song, not the Michigan song.

“So every time they would start playing ‘On Wisconsin, on Wisconsin,’ my dad’s political people would jump up and down and try to get them to stop, because they didn’t want people in Michigan to be reminded that my dad had moved production to Wisconsin,” said Romney, laughing.

What a piece of shit.

Dr. Engali's picture

Looks like a Romney lover junked you. The issue that you point out is why Obummer is going to be reelected if Romney is the nominee. The "Mr. Wallstreet" will catch up with him.

lolmao500's picture

Obama and Romney are total trash and shouldn't be elected.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Regardless of Newt Romtorum or Obama residing in the Oval Orifice Office, the story will remain the same.  Debt will expand exponentially, wars will be fought over resources, and the assmuncher media will do their best to split the population into arguing over red team/blue team, white/black, poor/rich, welfare/tax payer and the vast majority will eat it up or ignore it all together.  The story remains the same. 

Dr. Engali's picture

You're preaching to the choir brother. The people who need conversion are the reds and the blues.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

After over 5 years of trying to preaching to the red and blue team members, I have decided that giving myself my own root canals is much more pleasurable and actually gives me quantifiable results.

The blue teams tell me, "There is this pile of money...." Red team tells me "The debt is a problem unless we need to bomb brown people...." 

Dr. Engali's picture

I feel your pain there. The only caveat I have is that both sides are okay with bombing brown long as it is their side dropping the bombs.

OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Actually the US wars are not about resources any more, as Paul Craig Roberts points out. It used to be that empires went to war to extract resources from other countries. But the US did not win any resources from Iraq or Afghanistan. The resource that was won, bigtime, was taxpayer money flowing to military/corporate coffers. It's not required to "win" a war like that...just to keep it going.

Quinvarius's picture

I am sure the only song they new was the Wisconsin fight song and that was not being done purposely.

DormRoom's picture

US GDP growth is not strong enough to pay off debt in the long term.  Fed cannot print before Israel bombs Iran.  QE stimulus before this event will be offset by oil spikes; also adding accelerant to oil speculation.


Will the Fed wait on QE until after Isreal bombs Iran?


Also, another QE may push USDJPY below 75, and ruin Japan's economy.  Japan goes, global economy goes.


Debt Jubilee.  War with China coming within 5 years.



Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture


"another QE may push USDJPY below 75, and ruin Japan's economy"

Japan's economy (post Fukushima) and soon ours are already ruined. The twitching does not mean were still alive.

"War with China coming within 5 years" We have been at war with Red China (an economic war) since we started "trading" with them. I assume you are talking about a shooting war? Just wait until the Zionists attack Iran...

Dr. Engali's picture

Looks like old Benny better start floating some rumors either that or Obummer needs to launch his distraction.

stickyfingers's picture

Many earnings estimates that "beat", were on lower forecasts.

Ahwooga's picture

Yep, I would be very interested in a comparison chart showing beat/miss ratio on intial earnings estimates. Anyone out there been keeping that data or know where it could be tracked down?

ejmoosa's picture

Estimates are not worth anything.  You are really just evaluating how good the guesses are versus how well the economy is performing.


Only 63% of companies are reporting higher earnings than the same quarter one year ago.  Last summer we were at 72%.


And the rate of improvement has dropped sharply.The most recent quarter up less than 6 %.  Last summer, the rate of improvement was more than 12 %.

disabledvet's picture

I do agree the US economy is slowing. Also ECRI still stands by its recession call...which is a bigger deal than "slowing." moreover "stocks markets don't go to zero" because of "slowings"...unless you are Spain apparently. "all heat and no light" as they say. The real question to chew on is "is 200 dollar a barrel oil in fact GOOD for the American economy?" History states "it is an axiom that high oil prices doom the US economy." What if history is wrong this time though? What if indeed "this time is truly different"? (must be all that Government help finally paid off er... I mean "paying off"... of course. Besides only an idiot in the world of finance would want a solution to America's dependence on oil, right?)

Al Huxley's picture

This could all be fixed if they'd just make up some more positive numbers.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I can't see them holding this all together till the elections or selections whetever it is. .

mayhem_korner's picture



The bubble gum & chicken wire have reached their half-life.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

I just identified the problem the US is having structurally based on the materials used to patch this economy up.  They have been using chicken wire and bubble gum, whereas duct tape and permanent marker proves to be much more effective. 

BlueCollaredOne's picture

What do you say we settle this on the runway Han Solo?

the 300000000th percent's picture

It amazes me that they were able to hit any numbers based on lies, fuzzy numbers, BLS fraud, channel stuffing. Well iguess it depends on who "they" are.

mayhem_korner's picture



"Hitting" a number is simply a function of the time frame over which they can amortize the spread between the lie and reality.  I think that's what their ivy league PhD math doods do.

mayhem_korner's picture

It's funny because it's wrong.


Usually things are funny because they're true.  This must be more of a Joe-Pesci-in-Goodfellas kind of "funny"...

Tyler Durden's picture

It's also funny cause it is Bizarro day.

mayhem_korner's picture



You ought to come up with a name for the miss:hit ratio - maybe the Farce Index or sumpin.  Could be some royalties in it for the Tylers.  :D