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Charting Q1 GDP Pre And Post The 80% Downward Revision

Tyler Durden's picture


It's a good thing the BEA has two revisions to its GDP data or else someone would think that the government is purposefully fudging data. Below is a comparison between the Final Q1 GDP, which was released on June 24, and today's epic Q1 re-revision. From 1.9% to 0.4% in one easy Qe3 enabling step.


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Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:02 | 1504021 rokakoma
rokakoma's picture

So, actually, per capita Q1 was a recession, since population grew more than 0.4% during the period.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:04 | 1504028 wisefool
wisefool's picture


No. Obamas actions prevented a slide back into recession. That is what happened these numbers will be revise after this revision.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504031 Version 7
Version 7's picture

Not actually. 'Capitas' nowadays are in short supply.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504036 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

May we PLEASE bury Keynesianism now!?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1504066 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Not until Krugman can be found in the Comics section of your daily newspaper.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1504159 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Kruggy's a clown, but I do suppose clowns aspire to being in the newspaper funnies.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1504161 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Nothing wrong with Keynesian stimulus -- provided it's done in moderation and unwound "later".

The problem is with the wankers that climb the greasy pole to get their hands on the levers of power and think they can do the K-shuffle for decades. And you can't stimulate out of a Depression until the debt has been unwound anyway.

So there...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:40 | 1504186 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Nothing wrong with Keynesian stimulus

Pardon me, but there is everything wrong with stimulus. Government expenditure causes malinvestments which eventually collapse.

provided it's done in moderation and unwound "later"

The bureaucrats can't be trusted with moderation or any degree of responsibilit. Also, there is no later, these people will always kick the can down the road.

Only a free market with non interventionist principles removes all the bullshit you have just preached.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:38 | 1504657 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And therein lies the problem, the bureaucrats [by that I hope you mean the elected prostitutes and their lackeys] are controlled by the banks and large corps.

No matter what system we have, it can always be perverted by these people, and it will be if there are not term limits and criminal penalties for monetary donations to politicians, of any kind, from anywhere.

The US Supreme Court has granted constitutional rights to paper entities, thus making a laughingstock out of the Constitution.



Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504039 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

In recession while QEII was still in effect.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:33 | 1504148 tempo
tempo's picture

I remember how good it felt in 2005 during the subprime housing boom when everyone refinanced every 6 months lived like kings. Now its hell. I remember the wasted trillion + stimulus and QE1 and the $600 billion QE2 when the DJIA moved higher and higher. Its going to be hell for many years.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504033 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

Open the door to QE3? Oh right, because QE2 was so successful at boosting growth.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1504118 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

QE(s) were never about growth. If the FED wanted growth, they would have been better simply handing out the money to the consumers to spend. The FED doesn't work for the American people, only for a select few bankers.

QE was all about keeping the banks flush so they could continue to rape and pillage the world economy. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:06 | 1504034 Bob
Bob's picture

We're in trouble now--bankster bonuses were paid in Q1.  Looks like we need to increase the bonuses to stimulate some real growth!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:09 | 1504054 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

bonuses to stimulat some real growth!

We need them to have more money, so that the wealth may trickle down to the lower rungs.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:23 | 1504504 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Time to go long caviar and big yachts!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504037 caerus
caerus's picture can prove anything with numbers.../sarc

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1504038 Debtless
Debtless's picture

All that crazy money being spent and this is the best we could do? 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:06 | 1504044 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

no QE3 while oil is over $80.

that is all.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:06 | 1504045 rdenner
rdenner's picture

I know there will be 100 snarky/funny comments after mine.. But this is UTTER BULLSHIT..... How the hell can they F*** up by a full 1.5 basis points.. Are you kidding me...


Either they lied then or they are lying now.. Could this be a move to tank the markets(meaning GDP is actually higher and they are lying now) and get the GOP/Tea Party on board with a QE3/Budget increase.. WHICH = RALLY ON later on today??


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:09 | 1504055 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture


bp = 0.01%

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1504074 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Government reports = market-controlling government weapons.  They only have a strategic value, no truth value.  Watch the debt deal now go through on fast track as all politicians finally compromise for the greater good of the nation.   As for Bernanke, he still cannot launch QE3, even on the basis of these horrible figures.   More is needed, and more will be provided.   

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1504091 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

Who knows, to me at this point in the game this exercise is more like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1504115 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

So close. You almost nailed it to a T. Here is where you erred:

Either they lied then or they are lying now...

Should have read:

They lie every time!



Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1504126 monopoly
monopoly's picture

rdenner, I think the number is correct, you are really giving these idiots too much credit that they could manipulate this then change it for what they want. They are not that smart.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1504167 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Not only did they k*ck up by 1.5%, but that 1.5% made it through a revision BEFORE this final revision.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:08 | 1504047 desihedge
desihedge's picture

Double post!!!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:07 | 1504050 desihedge
desihedge's picture

Cant we just blame it on the weather?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1504072 caerus
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:58 | 1504336 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:08 | 1504051 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Shouldn't the 0.4 chart be much smaller in comparison? Maybe they think that people don't look at the numbers anymore just sizes, kinda like Big Macs.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1504052 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Cramer just rec. deep in the money calls for unsophisticated investors. 

You know it's gettin' bad when they throw Cramer on first thing in the morning

The following is a good start for the unsophisticated investor looking to hit a fair price on call options:

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1504089 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Good lord, how long before COMCAST finally pukes out its decision to put that guy on in the morning?  

**LOL!  Cramer just got on board with the plan for the Fed to sell its gold to pay the bills of th profligate.  Excellent!**

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1504122 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I agree with your observation.  If Cramer says, "The Euro is fine," then we are loading the ark with two shares of every stock.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:45 | 1504170 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Melissa Lee just raised the stakes on Cramer and said maybe it would be better to sell puts!!! 

This shee-iite is riiich. 

They are really trying to give the unassuming public a good fleecing.

Sell Puts!!!! Buy Calls!!!! Fuck it, throw on an iron condor, or a butterfly spread, it's so easy a baby could do it.

When are they gona' rec. short selling the box to help people with their taxes?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:40 | 1504183 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

did you see the number he tried to do to congressmen heulsma......telling him he is wiping out everyones wealth because he won't comprimise....a bat to cramers bald head seems a good fit....

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:41 | 1504190 youngman
youngman's picture

He grilled some Republican congressman this am on what the was supposed to tell his callers on his show who have lost money today because we have no debt was really bad the way he attacked he is the stock god for the sheeple....I was thinking he should tell them that HE...Cramer the mouth lied to telling them to buy stocks in this financial was a fake market...we know it...he should have told his listeners that he is the liar...and told them to buy gold....but then again he is an idiot...its over..Apple the toy maker has more cash than the US government right now.....does that mean anything to anyone....

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:09 | 1504053 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Our soft patch just turned into a plugged toilet

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1504090 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Yes, and the turd is in the white house...and in both houses of CONgress.  We need a Roto Rooter and some Draino Quick.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:09 | 1504057 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit if it wasn't for inflation that number would be negative.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1504067 rdenner
rdenner's picture


Captain Obvious FTW.. Had to give you a bump for that one!!



Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1504068 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

Obama decided to let a little truth out.  Interesting timing.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:30 | 1504120 depression
depression's picture

Yes this data should spook the TP. Fortuitously Reid decided to advance his bill in the Senate today giving the TP a way to save face. TP has an ultimatum now, either vote for Reid's senate "grand compromise bill" or Obama will invoke the 14th Amendment on Sunday night and its game over. Nice try TP dimwits.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:45 | 1504214 fuu
fuu's picture

Why would it spook the Tea party? This data shows that spending does not equal growth.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:17 | 1504075 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Time to arbitrage the dumb asses rushing into the long bond.

**Cramer is pounding the last nail into the coffin of his career.  He is joining the bandwagon of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers blaming the Tea Party for the mess we are in.  Excellent.**

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:15 | 1504079 oogs66
oogs66's picture

seriously, how can such a late revision be so big?  what the heck happened?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:18 | 1504083 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Fascism happened.  Or Marxism.  Take your pick.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1504130 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1504106 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gov needs a cattle prod for the debt ceiling agreements.  That is all.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:18 | 1504084 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture


Volcanic activity in CALIFORNIA

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:27 | 1504121 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

USGS says nyet.


USGS rules out volcanic origin of plume-like feature seen in NEXRAD in Mojave Desert (California)

Inquiries have come to the USGS regarding a potential eruption in the vicinity of Lavic Lake Volcanic Field (LLVF) in Southern California. The inquiries stem from a citizen report noting a plume-like feature on NEXRAD radar imagery from July 23, 2011. USGS volcanologists evaluating the situation find nothing to indicate that the NEXRAD feature results from volcanic activity. Satellite images from the same period do not show the steam or ash clouds that accompany volcanic activity, and there is no seismicity in the vicinity indicative of volcanic unrest/eruption. No earthquakes were located within 20 miles of LLVF during the last week (USGS-Caltech Seismic Net update 14:10 PDT July 27, 2011 ). No reports of eruptive activity have come in from ground observers (LLVF is within 2 miles of Interstate 40) or from regional pilots (Barstow Daggett County Airport is within 10 miles of LLVF). "

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:39 | 1504176 r101958
r101958's picture

Interesting. Maybe nothing....but interesting.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:43 | 1504202 youngman
youngman's picture

17 minutes...that is all it takes for an ICBM....hmmm

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1504086 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Bold face lie ... no way you can miss estimates by that much.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1504152 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Everyone here knew the inventory component was garbage in the first release.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1504087 Tell me lies
Tell me lies's picture

Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:20 | 1504092 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Ummm, anyone asking Reid/Obama how we are going to pay for the raised debt ceiling with obviusly lower tax reciepts and business activity?  What are they drinking?

"Tea Party" is the only sober gathering taking place in DC these days.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:21 | 1504095 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Amen brother!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:43 | 1504201 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I would like to see the TP's plan in writing. Unless they are talking about $10 Tril over 10 yrs (or more over less time) to balance the budget...because that is what it will take at present spending levels...then they are full of crap too.

TP was great when it was laser focused on fiscal responsibility only. Since it's incorporation into the republican party it has lost it's way and has taken up many social issues it shouldn't be touching. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1504960 ZeroAffect
ZeroAffect's picture

I would like to know, Who is the head of the TP?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:16 | 1506779 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Their own conscienes.  Why should they bow to some leader?

You are a sheep.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:22 | 1504096 swissinv
swissinv's picture

EUR and USD have a big big dive againt the CHF

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:22 | 1504099 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Look at how inflation is creeping up. QE3 very dangerous. Interesting, how all the pundits are asking with all this data how are we going to grow, create jobs, add to our economy. No one except us mention you cannot. You have to clean out the system first. Nope can't do that.  Will cost politicians their perks if we let the system reset. So, on we go, same old shit, until we have our own financial fukushima. Not going to work. At some point, it is over.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1504100 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Wonder what the manchild will say at 10:20?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:27 | 1504123 magpie
magpie's picture

Obama opening his mouth tends to mark the bottom.

But remember, he also arrives late.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1504105 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

The most surprising part of the Q1 revision is not the magnitude of change, but the fact that they were actually willing to admit it.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1504110 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Almost half of the "stimulus packages" were tax holidays and tax decreases.

R the republicans stupid?  Tax holidays and decreases didn't boost economy. Ordinary people need to live in the US as well. No founding fathers principles can help ordinary people out of the mess created by greedy Banksters and corrupt politicians.

I just feel sorry for you people living in the US right now with such idiots as politicians being A-fckd by the very people you elected.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:30 | 1504138 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Was John Kennedy stupid? Ronald Reagan? Good luck.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1504168 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture


I don't need any good need it. I am far away from your turf.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:45 | 1504217 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I take it you live in Asia?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:25 | 1504111 r101958
r101958's picture

Tyler- I am that someone.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:25 | 1504112 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

did cramer just say we should sell some of our gold so we can use the cash to keep government functioning? que? what gold?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1504131 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep.  He also hinted to the 14th amendment plan for the President to arbitrarily raise the debt ceiling on his own.  

There you have it, sheeple.  The man who champions himself as the defender of the people stepping up to trash the Constitution in response to the Ponzi scheme's need for more money.  

For these folks, there is no principle that cannot be sacrificed to keep the S&P up for a day.  Excellent!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:32 | 1504147 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

you ever noticed , he always has a picture of chairman mao or comrade lenin on his television set?   he is a true believer , despite what his  so-called populist rhetoric about being in it for the people.......

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1504157 depression
depression's picture

Obama/Ried Ultimatim to the TP : Vote for the Senate plan or Obama will invoke the 14th amendment on Sunday night.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:37 | 1504173 Bob
Bob's picture

He can't do it until the clock ticks into August 2.  It wouldn't be a very good threat to the TP, imo--it would be an offer that they could not possibly resist. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:38 | 1504175 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

TP repsonse will be "bring it on bitchez"

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:49 | 1504249 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I hope he does. Because if the 14th means it includes all future known debt then we are way past the $14 Tril and into +$55 Tril. It's high time the government had to show known future liabilities. That will make the sheeple's jaw drop when they see the real number.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:32 | 1504146 JJSF
JJSF's picture

All my gold was lost in a tragic boating accident.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1504153 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

two questions.


how deep is the water where the wreck settled on the bottom


exactly where did this accident happen?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:47 | 1504231 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

Is that a quote from Ben or Timmy?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:30 | 1504135 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i smell a rat. they are talking about the united states selling gold?  what is this??????

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:31 | 1504141 caerus
caerus's picture


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:49 | 1504244 youngman
youngman's picture

Lets see..I am the Chinese....I can either buy treasuries...or the USA´s gold......guess which one I would jump at...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:53 | 1504296 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Won't be the gold...chinese already sent some back after they found it filled with tungsten. I think they will merely own certain portions of the US..if they don't already.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:36 | 1505018 ZeroAffect
ZeroAffect's picture

Yeah they own a bunch of stuff already and they're coming to foreclose on it soon enough. Batten down the hatches folks and get your 'lead delivery' systems ready for a workout. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:56 | 1504315 R Man J
R Man J's picture

Gordon Brown says sell it before it crashes...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:31 | 1504142 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Boom goes the gold dynamite.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:32 | 1504144 jstalin
jstalin's picture

Don't forget Q4 2010 GDP was also revised down from 4.1% to 2.3%!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1504158 CrankItTo11
CrankItTo11's picture

And the headline on Google Finance... "Recovery Still Slow as New Data Show Little Growth"

Recovery? WTF.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:43 | 1504197 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Google is a great example of crony capitalism.  Eric Schmidt threw in with the current administration.  That they would use the word "recovery" should not surprise you.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1504166 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

First Qtr revised to .4% and Second Qtr at 1.3%. The market should be down 250-300 points. But of course the machines think the Bernank will come and save them.

If this does not proove money printing does not work then nothing will and we will be doomed.


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:36 | 1504169 Syrin
Syrin's picture

If we used real accounting numbers instead of all the fabricated numbers built into the GDP estimation, I would bet we actually had a negative GDP.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:43 | 1504199 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

14th ammendment

Section 4.

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any state shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Section 5.

The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:53 | 1505100 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

It'll be interesting if they take is path.

If they say the debts shall not be questioned, and say the USA has debts, the question is why they are not on the books. since the only debt on the books is what's holding up the debt ceiling debate. Then the government will have to include the present value of all its unfunded liabilities on the books and all of a sudden the national debt goes from $14 trillion to $114 trillion overnight (include ALL unfunded liabilities).

Would like to see Obama explain that away.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:48 | 1504243 Donlast
Donlast's picture

Its much worse than it appears. The incremental rise in nominal GDP simply reflects the rise in debt.  It doesn't reflect real economic growth at all. It is social accounting fudge. The Apple of this world are the real economic growth;  population growth, productivity, technology, viable private sector investment, risk taking, that is where the real growth comes from.  This conventional GDP stuff is a total con.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 09:50 | 1504265 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

Tyler, two days ago you posted words to the effect that "something spooked the market, but I don't know what." Maybe a few insiders got early word of this revision?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1504901 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Point, Japan's earthquake was near the end of Q1.  It didn't have time to affect Q1.  That excuse won't hold water, as it were.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:49 | 1505072 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

Tyler, not sure why you're getting upset.

You have to remember, in context, it's GDP 'created or saved' with QE2.

E.g. Don't declare war on Mars as you mentioned, and we 'save' $1 quadrillion. And if it wasn't for QE 2 GDP would be -5,000,000% (forgive my rounding). If we just don't declare war on Venus too we'll have a balanced budget!

I mean if it wasn't for the stimulus bill 130 million working Americans would all be out of jobs now.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 14:35 | 1505860 sgorem
sgorem's picture


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:41 | 1506560 R.Temple Bligh
R.Temple Bligh's picture

Tyler -

Can yop breakdown how companies can have blow-out earnings and yet GDP comes in at 1.3? How do these relate? I would think there is a very big spread here.


Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:44 | 1507047 wwwmm
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