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Charting Two Centuries Of Business Booms And Depressions: From 1775 To 1944

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because this time is never different...

Business Booms and Depressions Since 1775 (we recommend getting the pdf source)


 

h/t Dirty South

 

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Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:30 | 1628682 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Long overdue.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:16 | 1628767 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

yes I agree, I am getting scared about what is coming. The guys from http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com have been scarily accurate in the past, and called many things before they happend.  They are saying, we are in for what they call their worst case scenario.  

Most the people alive today have never lived through a depression, and will not know what to do. I think 2012 is the make or break year. Most people will not be prepared for what is coming. Time to prepare was yesterday. 

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:31 | 1628788 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

So what are you doing.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:16 | 1628854 oldman
oldman's picture

Buying a 2013 calendar-----the Maya had to chisel the new calendar out of stone---it's easier now    om

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:05 | 1629045 Michael
Michael's picture

October 10th, 2011 is the stock and bond market day of total world market devastation. Black Monday and Black Tuesday next month beginning October 10th will be market devastation of biblical proportions. You may think the plunges in this September are the big one, you are wrong, that's next month. Yes it is going to happen sooner rather than later.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:21 | 1629062 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Get back to the KKK forum!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:52 | 1629412 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

They told me that 2010 would be the end of the world, as I knew it. They moved that out to 2011, so I stayed put. Now I'm hearing that the end will soon be here in 2012, or thereabouts.

Maybe I shouldn't have quit my job and moved into this bunker.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:27 | 1629646 rocker
rocker's picture

I would simply say that everything has and still is pointing down simce 2010. 2011 improved but has now rolled over.

Don't think it is all good.   We are "Worse than Japan now".  

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1629985 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The world as you knew it IS over.  Absolutely all semblance of "free" markets has been abandoned.  Now we are just coasting.  

You are probably better off in the bunker.  If I didn't feel that my job was the single most important thing that I could do for humanity, I would have quit long ago.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:38 | 1629560 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Krackpot Krash Konspiricies??

...Mmmmm -- Kraaack...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:48 | 1629686 rocker
rocker's picture

Conspiricies?  Nah.  Just a little reality. From Treppor to CNBC to FOX everybody has told us to buy financials.

So the question is, who's their sugar daddy since they have been completely wrong and are still wrong.

Somebody has a motive to want everybody to dump dollars in a failing space. Who are they trying to bail out?

Stupid is as Stupid does.   Buying Financials is just plain Stupid.

When you can see Mark to Market. Buy them. Not until !!!  What hidden time bombs are they holding???

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:21 | 1630163 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

What could ever go wrong with a credit based economy like ours? Only a racist would short the market

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:02 | 1630108 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

LOL

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 04:03 | 1629136 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

Don't look at the bad times....Instead look at the booms during WAR time,

That what we need a good old fashion world WAR. Just think of all the jobs.

sorry kids

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:53 | 1629585 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Broken window fallacy

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:08 | 1629721 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

40 years of Government Evil!

Ignored! or given a Pass!

Fuck a March!

Fuck Protest!

Fuck Painting Posters!

These Evil Fuckers have been Killing Americans of how long?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw0D0yG3QmA

97th Anniversary of the Ludlow Colorado Massacre

Under the command of the Rockefeller family, the National Guard fires at strikers and their families to suppress a strike of twelve thousand workers

http://www.openfilm.com/videos/psywar <----- Thanks "CD"

http://metanoia-films.org/index.php <----- Thanks "CD"

You idiots better wake up!

You will be killed laying down or standing..

There can be NO! Peace!!

An Armed Nation of 300 million? 5 to 10 guns per person with 8 to 10 Billion Bullets a year being sold! going back for the last decade!!

They want Population control and they want us to kill each other!

Have you ever noticed how it is the Jews or Aztlan??? but NEVER!! The Fault of the Blue Bloods who really own everything???

The game has already been fought and won.. "We the People" lost.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:16 | 1629815 rocker
rocker's picture

Always good stuff JW.  Wouldn't it be great if somebody continued this great chart from 1944 on.

The best thing I could find that shows where we are headed is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 16:57 | 1629980 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Stop with the racial shit man!

 

We have that douchebag Michael here spewing anti-semetic vitriol around here. And so let's not fault blue bloods or any other race.

 

This is a HUMAN PROBLEM. Homo Sap is bad animal....

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:25 | 1630170 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Fuck off asshole. What exactly did the Tibetans or Aborigines do to contribute to this problem? Why are they bad animals? What did I do to contribute to the Gall Street and London bankers wreaking havoc with the world's economy? It's not the average guy working 50 hours a week and living within his means that is behind this mess. Don't compare him or her to the asshole big bankers and politicians

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 20:44 | 1630419 Hive Raid
Hive Raid's picture

Quit spewing your "Homo Sap".

You reek of ancient lies, more shrill with desperation now than in the last few decades of dinosaur media dominance.

We seeeee youuuuuuuuuu.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 17:51 | 1630085 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

For the past two weeks PFS Group has been interviewing some interesting guests. Dennis Cuddy put out a lot of conspiracy stuff I hadn't heard before.

A Global Currency and a Global Central Bank

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/09/02/dennis-l-cuddy-phd/the-master-plan-a-global-currency-and-global-central-bank

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:05 | 1630116 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Oh yes, your enemies or your prey kill eachother.  Almost as good as taking everything from your prey with no resistance, owning your prey and everything he thinks he owns.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 12:10 | 1631405 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Speaking the truth again J.W.  Careful, you are on "the list".

Yeah, the best thing we can do is ignore those blue bloods, start dealing with are own neighbors and neighborhoods and stop sending all that usury to those relative few.  All one has to do is recognize that the "elite owners" can't actually DO anything by themselves. Then the future starts to look a bit brighter. 

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 13:56 | 1631626 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

well said LoP, the key is to withdraw your power of attention.   but before we do, ever wonder why they're called bluebloods?    maybe because they were drinking too much collodial silver?

ever hear anything about monoatomic transition elements?   curious what a hard scientist might think about them.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:16 | 1629733 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Krugman basically said that in a CNN segment (he put it in aliens from outer space terms).  The WW will be their last ditch effort to jump start the economy.  Looks like the Mideast and north Africa will be the theater.  Iran will be the "bad guy".

Still looking for a man made pandemic to emerge that targets people 60+ (seniors).  This would solve quite a few problems, if they could get a 70% death rate.  Solves social security and medicare problems.  Transfers a great deal of wealth to younger generation to spend.  Keeps the worker bees alive to keep making honey for the Banksters and their politician puppets.  Look for more exotic flu seasons over the next five years, drug resistant strains, etc...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1629757 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Draft Boomers to fight Krugman's War...I suspect they would enjoy  that to reduce the medicare deficit problems and lighten the load on the SS system. More subtle but vicious then Death Panels...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:27 | 1630180 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Don't forget the $1 trillion spent on the welfare slugs annually

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:37 | 1628800 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I'm going with DEC-21-2012. Why? I'm beginning to think the Maya are correct in that the current world ends and another begins. Each era according to the Maya is 5,126 years. Considering degradation this number of years may fit perfectly with their predictions. There may have been survivors from the prior 5,126 year era and recorded it for the people that will live in future era's. The Neanderthals may very well have been the top species from another era. I wonder what sort of entity will replace us. Perhaps that's the Alien Invasion Krugman is talking about.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:00 | 1628831 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Unless there is a "cosmic force" in the terms of a cycle in the Sun that blows shit up (an example), your post is complete numerology tripe. Don't mean to be an ass, just sayin.

Human history is very poorly accounted for in many regards. In fact, its is highly likely that "ancient societies" traded across the Pacific/Atlantic long before JC was born. How would we know? Leather/Paper books? Hah! We don't know shit.

For a society today to portend their understanding of a society millenia gone is silly.

Our problem (collectively) is that we have shit our pants, just like a pre-schooler, and we are running around with full drawers pretending we aren't ... <cough/> ... in deep shit.

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:07 | 1628840 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I thought the Krugman reference would out my post as sarcasm  ; )

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:32 | 1628882 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

you both sound like me! LOL!!! O! NO!! anything but fun and fighting and sarcasm!!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:22 | 1629064 Michael
Michael's picture

I like fun, fighting, and sarcasm too.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:40 | 1629478 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

you need to work on presenting the facts in a way that can not be used against you and thusly against the very cause that you say you are tyring to help.

if you are not presenting the facts in a palatable fashion then you are just stroking your own ego.

you are damn well smart enough to understand what I am saying.

if you are on the team then start acting like it! instead of undermining others work and giving the scum ammo to use against any and all of us.

once again..

if you are not winning the hearts and minds how will you ever be able to say mission accomplished?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:29 | 1628940 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

:-)

I am pedantic. It is a curse and a blessing! I generally think positively of your posts, and this one I was like ... what the hell? So, I did what I always do, for better or worse.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:01 | 1629294 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"I thought the Krugman reference would out my post as sarcasm  ; )"

Sometimes you have to speak slowly and use small words in order to be understood. Too bad about that.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:44 | 1628894 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Dec 2012 is when the Large Hadron Collider will be operating at it's highest energy beam 14Tev.  Basically, if you agree with the transaction theory of quantum mechanics, a higgs boson will travel back in time to our world, and prevent the higgs boson from being discovered, by distorting how the wave function collapses, coinciding with the end of the EMU,  which funds CERN, possibly leading to world wide financial collapse.  But by that time, the Large Hadron Collider will have stopped operations, from lack of funding, or other ripple effects from the end of the EMU.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:42 | 1628958 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Modern physics reads to me, as a believable story line, like a porn flick. It is complete, unadulterated, bullshit. Un-possible? Meh. Still unadulterated bullshit.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:13 | 1628984 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My uncle retired some years ago as a physics professor.  Physics turned out to be too hard for me, so I chose another major.

I asked him once, maybe 4 - 5 years ago, what he thought of string theory.  He did not think much of it.  Unprovable was his main objection.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:02 | 1629156 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

As a side note, it's becoming a bit if a problem in that String Theory has been around long enough that there are now Universities whose science departments are run by "String Guys."

You eirther drink the Kool Aid about a theory in which basically no experimental method exists for verification or you're plumb out of a job.

But with 16 million AMericans out of work I guess no one will cry for some unemplyed egg heads.

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:32 | 1629466 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

You mean like the way AGW is now "de rigeur" to the point that Gore says if you don't believe you're a modern day racist? 

 

I believe in what is provable through whatever means necessary.  Man made global warming (or cooling, or climate change, or whatever you want to call it) is unprovable.  It's impossible to prove the relationship.  You can show correlation, but not causation.  This is true of all physical "evidence" from previous warm periods, too.  CO2 may coexist with warmth in 3 out of 5 warm periods, and that's enough for the climatologists to "prove" it's man made.

 

String Theory is interesting, and it MAY be provable - but isn't as yet.  As a result, let's keep an eye on it as well as other theories (I find it intriguing that many physicists are also signed on in opposition to AGW...I started as a physics major and have maintained my interest in it over the years).  Physics is very provable at most levels, except the very smallest - when it becomes a matter of statistical probability, and there are good reasons for this which fall into areas of discussion that most people (including myself) begin to fall asleep or not understand fully. 

 

As for the future of the stock market, or the market in general, I believe we're in for one more big downdraft, and either a massive inflation (most likely) or deflation (much preferable) which will be followed on by a restructuring of many nations, cultures, and societies.  I highly doubt a war scenario, but don't rule anything out.  Societies and cultures have knee-jerk reactions when they feel threatened.  Just because we've got alot of democracies in the world today doesn't mean or prove anything.  It just means larger masses of people are ruled by politicians who have managed to effectively control the agenda to convince people they are free, even as they give up more and more of their freedoms.

As my train conductor said to me "If more people read the Declaration of Independence, and the Constitution, we'd have had some very different men in the White House....and Congress...and the state house...and I'd be allowed to live out of state where I can afford it as opposed to in state, where I can't."  Seemingly "practical" laws such as this sap our people of the ability to grow the economy.  Sure, allowing 100 conductors to move to the next state won't improve the economy much, but if regulations similar to this were scrapped, and 500,000 workers in the US could make similar moves - now we're talking.

Rules like this exist everywhere in the US - coercion is the ONLY means the government has to get its way.  And right now, its way is NOT OUR way.  It is the way THEY want it....and they don't give a damn about you and me.  Time to Lock and Load - figuratively.  But if it comes to literally - I'm prepared for that, too.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 12:15 | 1631410 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Nothing is "provable" in science (at least when dealing with an honest scientist or engineer), there are only testable hypotheses.  Gravity and the theory of the movement of electrons in magnetic fields (electricity) are still, and will always be "just theories or hypotheses".

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:47 | 1629021 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"Modern physics reads to me, as a believable story line, like a porn flick"

So you don't believe most appliance repairmen or cable guys coming to a woman's home in So Cal are called "Cal Jammer?"

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:36 | 1629398 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

What's not to be believed about an infinite universe theory where all alternative histories and futures are real?  Actually a universe where Krugman isn't a Keynesian douchebag is a little too much to be believed.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:00 | 1629592 toxic8
toxic8's picture

The Universe is Holographic.

 

http://www.amazon.com/Holographic-Universe-Michael-Talbot/dp/0060922583

 

Read it. . . you'll be glad you did :)

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:25 | 1629638 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

But - you mean Kruggie ISN'T a tentacled lesbo skank from the fourth dimension?

Must be the beard that threw me off...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:31 | 1630192 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

You must be referring to the brown dwarf star following behind Comet Elenin visiting an Earth near you this fall on its 3.600 yr orbit (cycle?)

Some say it knocks us back to the Stone age every time or 2 it comes by.....

Planetary alignments with this thing cause earthquakes - next one on Sept 26 according to NASA JPL. 

 http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=elenin;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WsPTcl2z9w

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:10 | 1628847 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

I can only imagine what kind of legislation a lame duck President abd CONgress will invent right before the holiday break prior to Inuaguration day on January 20, 2013...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1629622 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Anything that can be passed can be overturned, or better still, ignored.

Fear not the politician.  He is of lowly and weak character.  You are better armed.  Accept it.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:16 | 1628855 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

 LJS - Neanderthal and Krugman, belong to the same sentence.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:57 | 1629419 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I take it you don't care much for Neanderthals.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:41 | 1629332 centerline
centerline's picture

Just for shits and giggles, I read somewhere that the calendar we use has been altered numerous times.  There are also calculation differences.  According to some sources, the 12/21/2012 by Mayan standards is really 10/28/2011 in our current calendar!

FWIW - I give no credibility to this 2012 crap.  Probably some Mayan walked up to the calendar maker and and said "WTF man!  2012?!  Stop there. We will make a new one that goes out further when we need it!   Damn!"

But, it is spooky considering the potential here at this juncture.  LOL.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:57 | 1629420 Seer
Seer's picture

I don't pretend to know whether it's crap or not, just that there's little that I could do about it one way or another.  But... there are two things that come to mind that won't allow me to dismiss it outright:

1) Earth's glacial cycles (I'm a firm believer in these, as described by John D. Hamaker- it's a big soil re-till operation);

2) Chariots of the Gods - have to admit that some of those cave paintings are pretty interesting, stuff that is pretty darn close to rocketry (no squinting required).

Glacial periods will pretty much erase our records; however, and perhaps similar to those cave paintings, we may scribble crap somewhere that will survive such that one day beings (humans?) will scratch their heads and wonder- WTF?  And speaking of cave artifacts, what of the global seed vault (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Global_Seed_Vault)?  Is this all one big deja vu?  Are we a collective Sisyphus?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:41 | 1629477 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

I believe in aliens, but I don't believe they were here before.  It's possible we're "descended" from a group that landed here - but it was a rare and singular event.  If they had been here before, why haven't they come back?

Furthermore, why didn't they conquer us?  Even if they were extremely advanced, I'm sure the will to overpower and rule has not diminished.  Politicians exist in every society (even the intelligentsia).  So I doubt they came down, helped a few societies build pyramids and paintings, then leave.  It's absurd beyond belief to think that - utterly irrational.  And people tend toward the irrational, so it's no surprise many believe it could've happened.

 

The Seed Bank is interesting, but here's the rub:  who's to say that after any massive glacial period, those seeds will survive in a new climate without being overwhelmed by new species - or becoming dangerous hybrids?  Sure, it's a great effort and probably worthwhile, but in the end we're still only servants to Nature.

Anyone who is opposed to "frankencrops" should oppose this effort.  Since I think gene manipulation is a good thing (it's just agriculture by other means....we could do all this by mixing and matching crops over millions of years or do it with gene manipulation - what's the difference?), I think the Seed Vault's probably a good idea, but will not end up providing the value back that was put into it.  Thus, economically, it's a waste of money, time and effort.  But we shall see.  We have lots of people on earth...so we have to keep them all busy.

 

I'm a fan of Julian Simon.  In the end, the optimists win.  In the short term, the pessimists rule.

 

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:26 | 1629641 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

If they had been here before, why haven't they come back?

Are you absolutely sure they haven't?

Simon's observation is self-evidently true.  If the optimists did NOT win long-term, who'd know?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:13 | 1629808 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I hope they are storing some weed. :D

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:09 | 1629434 Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

I always figured that was what fit on that hunk of stone. No more no less.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:43 | 1629569 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

please look here

http://www.jamesmaxlow.com/main/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=7&MMN_position=6:6.@

to quickly see the idea (1of14 about 1 minute in) model view again and again, and just try to think a bit differently than the way you were taught.

we know so little.

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:33 | 1629549 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Yeah, well, the Maya were full of shit, too...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:16 | 1629734 SPADOC4
SPADOC4's picture

Yes, but the cube root of 5126 is 17.2427.

 

Just sayin...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:48 | 1628962 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Fed will never let great depression happen again. They will print till China invades US.

 

At the same time, we won't have 2006 massive bull run either. Asset prices must deflate. Productivity must increase.

 

The shithole condition US is in now will just continue.

 

Empires are not built over night. Empires do not fall over night. They decline over centuries.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:13 | 1629165 Joshua Falken
Joshua Falken's picture

Why would China invade the US, you don't have anything they want.  Energy and other tangible assets like gold and copper are real currency that cannot be devalued by printing.

 

China will get aggressive in protecting and acquiring those assets (like the South China Sea and the Spratleys), but the USA is not an imperial target.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:02 | 1629239 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

No, you're right.  China won't, and wouldn't be able in invade the U.S. - It just just about impossible for them to get a large enough force here to do anything - unless Mexico or Canda allowed them to set up a staging area - where they could mass a million or so troops  -  so anyone worried about China coming here has not thought it out well.

But...the chances of us going to war with China (maybe in the next 10-20 years) are actually pretty good I'd say. 

But, it will start on one of the Islands (Taiwan for example)...or on Korea (big Brother china "helps" North Korea "unify)....there are probably quite a few scenarios...and rest assured - the Pentagon already has ,assive spending plans for each one of them...hahaha

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:21 | 1629260 Landrew
Landrew's picture

We will fight over the remaining oil in the middle east. As the production rates continue to fall middle east oil will be far more valuable. I think you see the tar sands pipeline as proof production is limited. Tar sands oil is only profitable at over 75$ a barrel. What really is funny that the Mexican gov. continues to sell raw crude rather than value added products for more profit. Mexico has declining production rates of 6% y/y! Oh, there will be war, there is no choice. When you have to mine and cook your energy all previous low cost economies are doomed to depression. We can only hope these wars remain non-nuclear? It's not about war it's about what kind of war.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:29 | 1629267 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Huxley,

Umm, China probably isn't going to invade the country that owes them 1T in bond debt. Perhaps suicide would be cheaper, faster and easier than them picking a fight with us. 

And by the way, nuclear war heads don't require "invasions".

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:26 | 1629319 Got_Nukes
Got_Nukes's picture

China does have those warheads that can reach us, but we can see them as they are being fueled

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:35 | 1629855 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Ahhh perhaps... "Magnificent images were captured by the KCBS news helicopter in L.A. around sunset Monday evening. The location of the missile was about 35 miles out to sea, west of L.A. and north of Catalina Island."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/09/national/main7036716.shtml

You wish to debate if the missle was Chinese? 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:30 | 1629323 Crassus
Crassus's picture

It's against Chinese thinking and teaching, of all eras, to fight for a thing which can be gained by other means.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:10 | 1629435 Seer
Seer's picture

"Empires do not fall over night."

Is that a literal "over night," as in 12 hours, or as in "a very short amount of time, like months?"  The Soviet Union, which was an empire, went VERY fast.  Even if there had been no previous instance noted that still doesn't mean that it couldn't, as you assert, happen.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 08:45 | 1631165 e-recep
e-recep's picture

You think it went fast because you couldn't know what was boiling inside. The Soviet empire was not transparent.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 23:57 | 1630659 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

The Chinamen have already begun their invasion.

Been to the left coast of US & Canada lately?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:57 | 1629346 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

have said this previously ..... after much reading & research .... while not totally exactly the same (nothing ever is a perfect match, especially when it comes to human behavior), right now sure looks like Summer of 1931.

There is a misconception that the stock market crash of 1929 led to great depression. Au contraire.

Less than 4% of US population owned equities. And a lot of precautions and concern went into managing USA to soft landing after booming 1920s. Pres. Hoover got big biz to guarantee no mass lay-offs or wage cuts for 12-18 months ... which was largely honored. While a credit contraction began and some weaker banks folded, overall it was not as bad as 1907 or early 1890s vicious panics.

Now for the comparison: Europe as the driving dynamic.

As late as Summer of 1931, arguably everything was still 'manageable'.

But, protectionism started to rear it's ugly head via tariff proposals at the worst possible moment. Why?

Because a proposed customs union between Austria and Germany , deemed a direct violation of the Versailles Treat following WW1, ticked off the French and others.

So the French, and British, who had extensive central/eastern Europe loans, in 'protest', massively and suddenly withdrew cash /deposits. In direct line of fire was Rothschilds Creditstaldt Bank in Austria which collapsed in August (?) 1931. This 'run' immediately spread to unstable Hungary, Rumania, etc. , rest of Austria, then Germany , then Britain & France itself. By the Fall of 1931, large, more international NY banks were drawn into this crisis. All the Europeans wanted US gold and so started withdrawing substantial deposits to be repaid in gold. Hoover rushed alternative after alternative to create credit backstop 'buy-time' solution, but they were half-step too late and cynical self-interest had already set-in. Britain went off the gold standard and within weeks 20-30 countries followed. This put further withdrawal pressure on American banks, vulnerable from downturn of 1929 crash.

In 60 days at end of 1931 calendar, the US bank run leaped across the Atlantic as US depositors panicked following the domino like collapse of NY internationally tied banks.

The Federal Reserve, hoping to stop the gold withdrawals by a needy, anxious Europe, raised interest rates, so credit contracted. Employers now had no choice but to slash their labor forces and fragile consumer demand disappeared ....... monetary velocity came to an almost complete stop, and on and dismally on....

Europe, had a decent conceptual foundation to rebuild post-WW1. Senior financiers were aware of the reality about Germany's ability to pay reparations. USA's Andrew Mellon and UK's Montagu, both realistic biz financiers had argued, and convinced, the hostile populations of former WW1 allies, Congress, French assemblies and Parliament, to 'take' what they could 'get' and what Germany could realistically 'pay'. They also tried to re-establish the gold standard without fractional reserve lending that had served the economic growth of the West largely in the 19th Century and early 20th Century until the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand changed the 'security' question of then Europe. But this all came undone in the Creditstaldt withdrawals that set-off a chain-reaction that collapsed western modernity and belief in capitalism.

The reality is that 'capitalism' was not the 'issue' but, as always, the folly of humanity and human weaknesses.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:06 | 1629515 Seer
Seer's picture

"Less than 4% of US population owned equities."

I don't think that this is as trivial as you might suggest.  Consider that, today, it is only a small percentage of people that hold the majority of the wealth.  It is these people's behavior that tends to cause the economy to shift.  Further, nothing really happens unless equities are traded; it used to be that people held stuff for a LONG time (pre-HFT days).

Also, it's likely (I don't have any data, so I can't provide any facts or sense of certainty) that there were a lot more medium-sized businesses that weren't public (offering stock) and that were direct feeders to those that were.

This all said, I think, because TPTB want it that way, that the story of the "economy" is really only told through the handful of people holding and controlling the major equities, and as such we tend to only think of our economic activities through this window.  We know that there's lots happening outside of the stock markets, it's just that it's not clear how much (again, TPTB don't want us to believe that we can operate outside of Their economic structure).

If you're linked into TPTB's economic structure then that small percentage can whip you around with ease.

During the 1930s the linkage was forming quite quickly.  I cannot quantify it, perhaps no one really can, but it's pretty clear that a small percentage of people were able to cause a significant shift.  Linked in, people are but mere fleas on the dog's tail.  I doubt that the woman in this famous picture had owned equities: http://0.tqn.com/d/history1900s/1/0/a/gd45.gif

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:06 | 1629713 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

"There is a misconception that the stock market crash of 1929 led to great depression. Au contraire."

Agreed. The stock market crash preceded the larger downturn in the main b/c, it's easier to liquidate securities than it is to sell hard assets. But the deflation (and its attendant decline in velocity and world trade) was baked in from the start.

The culprit behind the fall in stocks and later in real assets, in my view, was the preceding enormous build up in credit. In the US, the foundation of federal credit was initially expanded to fight the war (nearly 10-fold as the article's chart shows).

In addition, the credit expansion was also accompanied by a great expansion in what constituted eligible bank assets. Mortgages, for example, for the first time were considered by (some) banks as suitable assets. In other words, there was also a marked deterioration in the quality of bank assets at the same time those assets expanded greatly. By the late 1920s, the weight of this credit burden became insupportable and it collapsed w/the first signs showing up in a scramble for liquidity on Wall Street.  So the stock market collapse did not cause the GD, it was merely the first manifestation of the underlying disease.

BTW, this massive buildup in credit also illustrates the folly of England's return to the gold standard in 1925...at the old pre-war parity. English resumption, in other words, completely ignored the previous decade of credit inflation, and virtually assured a collapse in international trade inasmuch as London was an important international clearinghouse. (Resumption at a rate that reflected the inflation would have implied big purchasing power losses for debt holders.)

So I agree w/your basic premise that the similarities between then an now are very interesting; only the orders of magnitude this time around are quite a bit larger.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 17:23 | 1632177 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Withdrawn Sanction,

I recall reading that Joe Kennedy went short before the market crash in 1929 because he saw something in the currency markets that tipped him off...something related to the British Pound.

Does this ring a bell for you?

If so, please elaborate.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:48 | 1629780 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

ReactionToClose

Very nice thumbnail sketch of financial history!

How did you come to see so clearly?

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 08:59 | 1631179 e-recep
e-recep's picture

Under every ZH article there are one or two useful informative posts. This is definitely one of them.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:03 | 1629510 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

we are in for the worst case scenerio because fiat regimes never last more than a hundred years........so 2013, sounds about right....

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:43 | 1628898 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Some one / bevel your Bicuspids.

 

    YEN cross"  POOF!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:44 | 1629017 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Nice job Tyler/Tylers.  Gee I could be over on Wall Street Journal/Barrons reading crap from idiots fawning over Obama's pal Buffett.  The Orifice of Omaha.  ZH, for the most part, rocks.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:10 | 1629725 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

"The Orifice of Omaha"  Good one.  WS chuckles quietly to himself.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 21:49 | 1630497 sensemaker
sensemaker's picture

yep, that makes sense

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:32 | 1628686 ninja-ish
ninja-ish's picture

this will be the LAST one. then WWIII. last war. and back to gold.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:38 | 1628703 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

no. after WWIII, back to rocks and sticks.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:44 | 1628713 mcguire
mcguire's picture

per albert pike, after ww3 will be a luciferian paradise.. 

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/07/albert-pike-letter-to-m...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:14 | 1628760 john39
john39's picture

Their symbols are already all over everything, just have to know what to look for. Regardless of what you believe about it, they believe it.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:41 | 1628895 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

"This letter has been claimed by many internet sites to reside in the British Library in London , which denies the letter exists."

Well imagine that. Like any BS conspiracy theory it can no longer be proved. So somehow Pike in 1870 knew it would be called the "Nazi Party"? Come on. The sheeple will grasp onto any conspiracy to avoid having to face the real truth. That is, NO ONE is in control. Come on. The Illuminati? If they do exist then they are the good guys. The dumb sheep are the evil ones. Without the will or lack of will of the dumb human cattle, none of the banksters could do what they are doing today.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:50 | 1628960 flacon
flacon's picture

NAZI - do you mean the NAtional ZIonists party?

 

What I still want to know is what happened to the IDEOLOGY of the NAZI party, and where did their members escape to after WWII? A war is won when the IDEOLOGY is defeated, not when the spirit is crushed. 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:06 | 1629160 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

You know, I was asking myself the same question just the other day.

Whatever happened to our Nazi Ideals, am I right people?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 06:11 | 1629187 ping
ping's picture

I'm hoping that people are reading the Pike/Nazi/Illuminati stuff with tongue stuck firmly in cheek. (If I misread and everyone is - sorry.)

The Pike text uses so many phrases and names that are decades before their times, it can't be real. There's so much complexity inherent in multi-faceted systems - i.e. Life! - that no-one can really pull levers like that. If they could, Ben Bernanke would already have had plastic surgery to look like Tom Selleck, he'd be a pro athlete, and none of us would spit on him in the street.

We don't need illuminati, or zionist conspiracies, or communist ones. People are a selfish, and giddy, and do dumb things. Even if they're powerful, like bankers or politicians. Most of us, them included, are along for the journey, and try to ride the wave the best we can. 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 07:21 | 1629223 destiny
destiny's picture

Try to think about what the N O W is supposed to be all about !! CONSPIRING is in all historical facts since the dawn of man !  So you think that illuminatis are in it just like us, street sheeple ? we're too stupid to let hem do what they want ?  how in the hell are you supposed to face that when gvts, armies, media are part of their artillery ! well, it's been all orchestrated in my view...they may not control the chaos and the way thinks fall apart one by one, but they sure as hell know where they are going...look on the chess board and see how the richest are placing their pions.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 13:17 | 1631313 mcguire
mcguire's picture

that is absurd...  if anything, ZH should be teaching you, one 'conspiracy theory' proven to be 'conspiracy fact' at a time, that "Conspiracy" is not only real, but is the driving force of human history.  

people are selfish and giddy and do dumb things.  that is why conspiracies work.  

i am have been trying to insinuate a general thought here with my posts, and it is this; ZH readers, do not stop with the collapse of the financial system.  that should be evident by now.  rather, start thinking like a hegelian, like a freemason, apply the principle of "ordo ab chao", see what it is ACHIEVED with a financial collapse, what purposes would this serve, imagine what will be the characteristics of the global ORDER we will get from the CHAOS that is coming... 

you dont like the credentials of the pike letter?  then rather consider it as a thought experiment.  fake or not, it should get your gears turning.  does it make sense?  does it sound eerily 'close to home'??? but for your pleasure, here is a historical defense of pike letter... 

1875, Theosophical Society was created in New York. The TS was orgainized by Madame H.P. Blavatsky, Colonel Henry Steel Olcott (U.S. army, retired, and a writer for the New York Daily Graphic), and Charles Sotheran (an author, socialist, and a Freemason Supreme Council member of the Scottish Rite). The TS grew rapidly and soon after became international.


In 1888, Blavatsky and TS teamed up with Nationalist Clubs and the Nationalism movement under the notorious socialist Edward Bellamy, author of the book "Looking Backward," known as the Bible of Nationalism.  

1890 (October) The Theosophist endorses Edward Bellamy, his book, and the Nationalist Party, and remarks about Theosophists being involved in the formation of the party and acting as its "most active and ardent workers and supporters." There is also a remark about "The Key to Theosophy" being translated into the German language (p. 61).

Theosophical writings of Annie Besant, Charles Leadbeater, and Helena Blavatsky, were translated and published in Germany. An 1892 periodical, Lotus Blossoms, featured Blavatsky's writings and "was the first German publication to sport the theosophical swastika upon its cover". As time went on numerous other Theosophy-based groups of occult socialism formed in Germany and Austria via Guido von List and Jorg Lanz von Liebenfels and Julius Streicher and  others. Several of these groups would provide the philosophical framework for National Socialism in Germany.

Blavatsky used the swastika extensively, incorporating it into the seal of The Theosophy Society. The first German publication at this time to sport the Theosophical Swastika on its cover was "Lotusbluthen" (Lotus Blossoms). That was also in 1891. The Theosophical publication for English children at that time was entitled 'Lotus Journal'.

In 1919, Julius Streicher was the local organizer of the Thule sponsored German Socialist Party (Deutschsozialistische Partei). In 1921Streicher launched the Deutscher Volkswille, it became the voice of the party. In 1922 Streicher joined the National Socialist German Workers Party and shortly thereafter handed his own party over to its notorious leader, who wrote a glowing account of Streicher's generosity in Mein Kampf (M-3). Streicher also used alphabetical symbolism when he formed his "Storm Troops" (the SA), and they wore swastika armbands (GP 25). 

link: http://rexcurry.net/theosophy-madame-blavatsky-theosophical-society.html

link: http://www.cephasministry.com/nwothule.html

 

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:16 | 1628765 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ya get a plus~  Nice post!  P.S. Where do you think all the ( SAFE HAVEN)   flows are going?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:50 | 1629026 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

I'm putting mine in your mom, thx

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 06:03 | 1629183 laomei
laomei's picture

good choice, if you put in your mom it'd get plundered in less than an hour

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:10 | 1629724 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Into necrophilia are you? Bring a shovel...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:10 | 1629519 Seer
Seer's picture

Long, sticks!  Long sticks... ah, those would be "spears," wouldn't they? :-)

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:04 | 1629242 max2205
max2205's picture

This will be touted as the depression to end all depressions. Like WWI?....

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:34 | 1628689 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

I would love to see the chart continue from ww2 to after liberating Iraq!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:43 | 1628711 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

Liberating Iraq? LOL, you mean liberated their oil?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:55 | 1628910 Bad Asset
Bad Asset's picture

i think he meant obliterating.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:52 | 1628966 flacon
flacon's picture

We liberated Iraq by providing Keynesian jobs - the more we kill, mame, and destroy the better their GDP. A Nobel Prize winning economist told me this. War is prosperity, and destruction is jobs for all! Keynes really werks! 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:19 | 1628987 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The killing boosts the per capita numbers, too.  Man made pandemic will thin the heard and finally bring down unemployment, boost productivity and lessen the social security/medicare obligations.  Look for it to start at a military base and spread quickly.  Baby boomers will be targeted.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 07:18 | 1629219 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

if we got their oil why am I paying $3.75 a gallon for gas?

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:28 | 1629266 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

And are you so ignorant as to think oil supply has any direct bearing on the price of oil and gas?

And, who said we were pumping any of that oil anyways....just said we "HAVE IT"

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:44 | 1628714 yabyum
yabyum's picture

would like to see from 9-11-01---9-11-11, game changer for sure.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:54 | 1628971 flacon
flacon's picture

Have you ever taken a look at the DOW/SILVER ratio? 9/11 was the PEAK! Check it out for yourself:

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=DJ+/+SILVER&wcocmp=SILVER&wincmp=DOW%20JONES%20INDUS.%20AVG

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:15 | 1628926 kito
kito's picture

here is a nice one rasta--hope youre not scared of heights.........

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/crisis-explained-one-chart-debt-gdp/11570

 

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:18 | 1629255 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

Flush that shit out from between your ears.

That whole fucking endeavor was NOTHING more than a ploy to get a western footprint into the Arabian Pennisula....so that private corporations (halliburton, Exxon, Chevron, etc) could have open access to "Drill baby Drill"

If you think we sent our solidiers and Marines over there for anything else...especially for some feel good "we are her to liberate Iraqis, and to make sure their women don't have to wear Burkka's" bullshit that the MSM was pumping non-stop in the winter and spring of 2003...then there simply is NO HOPE for you....what in the fuck are you even on a website like this?  Should you be on AOL, Yahoo Finanace, or CNBC forums?  There has to be a place that better matches your ingnorance of history (although there are quite a few ignorant little fucks on here too)

I'm just sayin. . .

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:14 | 1629302 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I thought we were sending our soldiers and marines there for good reason. Hindsight makes me think I might possibly have  been conned. Oops.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:47 | 1629405 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

so anyone who does not follow your 'shock and aweful' opinion exactly is an 'ignorant little fuck'? Really?

Try half decaff next Saturday morning ...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:23 | 1629527 Seer
Seer's picture

It's amazing that people can't see this...

On the "right" side people are brought to backing the wars through racist/evil/religious angles.  And on the "left" side people are brought to backing the wars through trumped up humanitarian angles.

Wars are ALWAYS about resources.  People need to read Smedly Butler's War Is A Racket to better understand how this all works.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:35 | 1628691 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

What's important is to look at the lifespans of the attempted central banks before the Fed. In other words, the 1st Bank of the US, the 2nd Bank of the US, et cetera. overlayed on top of a chart like this. The relationship of fiat money to the booms and busts is obvious and striking. Make no mistake about it: poverty comes from fiat money.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:59 | 1629423 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of merchants, paper is the money of slaves - fiat creates poverty

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:27 | 1629460 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Silver is the money of gentlemen, debt is the money of slaves.  There, fixed it for you

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:35 | 1628692 dtseng123
dtseng123's picture

Finally, One chart to rule them all.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:14 | 1628761 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

And in the darkness bind them?

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:16 | 1628766 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Would you mind elaborating slightly...its a nice chart, but what does it all mean?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:04 | 1628838 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

The natural balance is periodical ... not unlike a sine wave ... but when authorities decided they want to deny nature, the balance is interrupted. As you go right on the chart, its obvious that many years of history suddenly bend and cease the pattern.

The pattern didn't go away, its an internal force, hidden, building up, like water gathering behind brush/debris in a stream bed.

Look for the surface area missing in the pattern. It has gone no where. It is waiting. And growing.

I am often wrong (for a living), but I do make it a point to learn when I fuck up. I could be wrong here. I hope I am to be honest.

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:23 | 1628866 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

"I am often wrong (for a living)" you're in the economist class! No, thats a fairly good description actually...but is there a part of the chart missing? I can only see up until 1944 when the national income and spending peaks? From what i can determine, it seems that if the chart were to carry on, all we could see is that the periods of growth and decline would become more extreme? That is, if the periods of decline became more extended, such as now?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:32 | 1628945 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

No, I am an engineer. I fuck up, I go "shit", and I improve.

Do you realize why you want old engineers with lots of experience? Because they were young, they fucked up, they learned, they got old, and they know how it works.

I am humble by nature, because I know what I don't know.

Glass half empty or a glass half full.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1629281 useless_fact
useless_fact's picture

Glass half empty or a glass half full.

 

Or is the glass designed twice as large as it needs to be.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:21 | 1629314 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

An engineer? The wrong for a living phrase made me think weatherman.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:38 | 1628952 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I think I may have been hasty in my response.

I have seen the chart continued. If I am not mistaken, its no recession ... since ...(my inner cynic viewed this as a tee-up for a forth coming post).

But ... here to learn! Anyone got links?

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:36 | 1628696 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i love historical charts .     a chart is worth a thousand words.     charts can reveal answers with just one glance .    (now, look what's happened to me since reading this website !   not only have i made friends, but i've also been educated in the ways of precious metals & charts !  /  i love ZEROHEDGE . )

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:35 | 1629328 centerline
centerline's picture

lynnybee - Imagine if that chart was brought current!  It would absolutely, without a doubt, show the magnitude of the bubble we are currently riding on - and how far we potentially have to fall.

 

It would be kick ass if someone here has the time to extend this chart....  hell, just crayon/sharpie it it in using appropriate scale!  Tyler - wouldn't that make one hell of a follow-up post?

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:30 | 1629546 Seer
Seer's picture

Here you go!  It's all just a single, simple parabola:

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm (see Figure 1.)

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:17 | 1629530 Sebastian
Sebastian's picture

Yes, I've been looking for a chart like this for 3 years now. Except someone has to continue it on from 1943-present. Any volunteers?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:38 | 1628701 mcguire
mcguire's picture

you can see the kondratiev waves.. nice. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

would like to see a chart like the one above of germany, esp. around 1923..

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:26 | 1628779 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I have no "finance background" per se, but K-waves resonate with my "common sense". I periodically argue with peers that CS/EE (computer science / electrical engineering) is the current K-wave that is ending. The adoption of information processing infrastructure has impacted every industry, every business, and changed the economy in so many ways. It very much fits in my mind, including the timing of ENIAC back in the late 40s.

Information processing is fast becoming a commodity, just like all the K-wave predecessors.

Moving to Alaska was a complicated, multi-faceted decision for me, but K-waves was one of the fundamental reasons. The gravy train in IT is over and done. Sure there will be good jobs and money makers in the future, but this as the norm is over. I could have been a machinist in the 50s and had one of the best jobs the economy had to offer (I was a machinist in the Army). But in the long run, that wouldn't have worked out so great. IT is very similar in this regard.

On that note, I spent considerable time pondering what the next K-wave would be. Ratner and Ratner have a great non-technical book on Nano-tech for those who read. Very approachable if you got three brain cells to rub together. Bio-tech is another candidate, but I don't see it reaching the broader economy. Excellent field for any youngin's looking for a good ride, but its not the next K-wave. Important, but not a K-wave.

Energy is the last option, but I don't see on the horizon any energy fields which can replace hydrocarbons. Even with widespread adoption of Thorium MSRs, I am not sure status quo could hold for another 50 or more years.

War is going to be upon us soon. It will be one hell of a shit show. I am not sure there will be any winners this time. Our race is facing a type of canabilization on a scale never seen before. These things change us as a society. We will never be the same.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:17 | 1628927 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Fascinating - thank you for the links and insight --- I know I can trust a man who's bio reads like this:

"Kondratiev was a Russian economist, but his economic conclusions were disliked by the Soviet leadership and upon their release he was quickly dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in the Soviet Union in 1928. His conclusions were seen as a criticism of Joseph Stalin's intentions for the Soviet economy: as a result he was sentenced to the Soviet Gulag and later received the death penalty in 1938"

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:59 | 1628976 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Any thinker must be judged on the merit of their ideas. In the long run, any thinker must pay their way on value produced from their ideas. This is how I pay my rent.

What has happened with "modern media" is that "thinkers" come up with BS and the goal posts moves. Over and over. Its about the sell, not about the measure.

This is all well and good, but unfortunately our species is rapidly running up against an asymptote. It will not be pretty.

I want to be optimisitc, but I am not. Anyone with the means or opportunity should get the hell out of population centers muy pronto. I don't care who your neigbors are, what kind of gun collection you got, how you got your stripes/stars in the military, or anything of that nature. I feel that history will look back and favor those that just walked away.

Things are going to get dark very fast ... like the potatoe famine ... except with guns.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:06 | 1628981 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Stuck in a condo.  Hope you're wrong.

Regards to you as well!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:22 | 1628989 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Given the gift of hind sight, there is no "stuck". What of an irishman who immigrated to the US ahead of the famine? Is his(her) story worse than that left behind? The US is built on those who knew better, packed it up, and bailed. I am one.

My paternal name is ... Szczepanski ... Prussian ... or Polish to those of Ellis Island about 100 years ago.

Count calories and energy. Know where it comes from. If you can net a positive on both, despite the world, stay put, otherwise, god bless.

I know this comes across as alarmist, and I don't want to be. But in an urban setting, should supply chains be interrupted, its going to be hell on earth.

Me, I will have my floor freezer of game meat, hydro-electic power, and 1000 miles (by boat) from hungry tard-zombies in a small town that won't accept tard-zombies.

I don't want to be a smart ass. It is not about winning. I don't want to win, I want all my brothers/sisters to win with me. This is about being in the right position when things come unglued for 3 or 6 months. Small town. Not near a big town. Cook your own chow absent the munipality.

I worry about my blood family, but crazy only gets you so far.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:12 | 1629249 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Only a fool would not agree with you. Even during the last great depression, the people without debt and some country property could grow food [think western Illinois, Kentucky, etc not dust bowl mortgagees or southern tenant farmers]. I am in a small town, near a large military base. I think I need to move further down the road. I hope there is time. 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:37 | 1629557 Seer
Seer's picture

[US-centric comment] Like cancer, there are military bases/installations EVERYWHERE!  It's extremely hard to get away from them.  And that's the design- this shit is festered in EVERY congressional district (oh, and this even applied to abroad, though with less density).

I had found one location that was about as stable as I think could be found (no real large industry, power plants or military installations), but never made it there.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:04 | 1628980 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Cooter, I very much agree with Josh about your interesting and excellent reply.  Cycles are very much worth academic and general study.

The end of the gravy train in CS/EE might be part of the explanation of why our daughter's boyfriend (EE) abandoned his career to work for a start-up.

Nano-tech...  Since I am too old to pick up a new field (I am lucky I kind of learned to use the "S" statistical program while off the grid recently) that book would be for interest only.  Thanks for the link.

Your comment on energy was interesting too.  Not to mention a terrible war...

It looks like you have had a lot of time to think while up there.  Rained like Hell when our cruise ship visited your part of the state!

So, when the tourists from the ships finally have left for good, go have an Alaskan brew (you can bill me) at the famous Red Whatever It Is (downtown) that we could not get into because of the long line...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:40 | 1629014 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

You should have let me know you were in town. I would have shown you around a bit or at least shared a few pointers. I met some very nice folks from Western Australia just this week. Having attending a local history class (for tourist industry employees) I bent their ear something horrible. Juneau is very, very rich in history to say the least.

I am fierce about this sort of knowledge, and being very new here, its a blessing/curse with regards to finding interesting things to do (I know some things by curiosity but not around long enough to know everything).

Start-ups are neither good nor bad; what matters is a role that provides relative value. I am damn good at what I do, the state is starved for talent (seriously), so I took a 25% pay cut and moved up (money doesn't matter to me at this point). For me (and I am crazy) I love every minute of it. I can not convince anyone I know to do the same. I am still an outlier.

I am so stoked when I am in-state for game next Feb. I really hope to pull off and elk hunting trip for my freezer next year and I can fish salmon/dolly vardon/halibut in state (very expensive otherwise).

For any ZHer, if you are able and willing to pack it up for a skilled gig in Alaska (go here for why and opportunity) I think this is a great ride for what is coming.

Life is about choices; choose and live with the consequences. This weekend I am going to a friend of mine (via work) who is a Nebraska farm boy to make jerky (two day process - I am doing homemade bread - another guy is doing spicy Thai around dinner time).

Think on that while any ZH readers horde guns, ammo, and gold.

For me, while I buy gold/silver, I don't see this as a replacement for my ability to work long term and provide value in a community. To me, it is about finding a place where I matter. I need to pull my weight. That earns me neighbors. That is security.

Gold/silver is about not getting raped in the process. But G/S is secondary ... to real community.

God bless,

Cooter

 

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:16 | 1629055 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

That ain't crazy Cooter, sounds the most sensible thing i've heard on ZH for a while.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:28 | 1629382 g
g's picture

Well spoken CC, Alaska has been my primary choice for location to weather out the storm. It will be about community because realistically no one can do it all themselves and survive for any length of time. A person can not be a doctor, a farmer, so on, etc,. for themselves. Community life will be the new paradigm. Globalism is a failing paradigm. Gone will be the days of transporting food let alone anything else thousands of miles. This is of course assuming the system fails catastrophically. It definetly could unwind slowly as well. Regardless it has been extremely hard to convince my wife or anyone else I know personally to prepare or even acknowledge that the possibility that change could occur.  I lke your outlook, you are not out here touting the I got guns, gonna do it by myself, and be fine attitude. Because that perspective and path will fail. Weapons are good and may be necessary, but one man is not going to defeat a mob of hungry people willing to do anything to eat. Anyways nice post.

 

You seem of the mind to appreciate Chris Martenson check out chrismartenson.com

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:19 | 1629449 centerline
centerline's picture

Nicely put g.

If I was single, I would already be out of where I am.  Long ago actually.  Is very hard to make big changes with family in tow... almost impossible when they do not see the risks - and suffer from normalcy bias to such a significant degree that they reject even the most compelling evidence.

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:09 | 1629604 g
g's picture

Agreed I would have bailed out long ago if I was single. People are unwilling to even consider that the status quo can change, it is laughable to them. So trying to encourage preparation for calamity is a seeminly impossible challenge. Let us consider that most people are not even prepared for a natural disater, which is evidenced by what we see whenever a natural disater strikes, everyone is totally dependend on the authorities for assistance, rather than having the basics, water, food, etc. It was not that long ago, when people routinely grew their own food, and preserved enough to go through the winter. These simple skills (horticulture/farming, hunting, preservation, etc) were a part of daily life and for the vast majority have been forgotten. The attitude that it can not happen is quite boggling, all you really have to do is look at many parts of the world to see how different life is. A review of Argentinas histroy should be enough to prompt anyone to take basic steps of preparedness. The fact is that in reality it would take very little to dramatically and potentially irrevocably change the status quo.

Modern life is great, I enjoy it, I want the status quo lifestyle to be maintained, same as anyone else. But ignoring the facts of decreasing EROEI and the plethora of other issues certainly does not diminish them or make them impossible. I agree that you can not live in fear that the worst can happen, live life as you normally would, but look at the situation realistically and recognize that the unexpected can happen. That is just wisdom and prudent planning. Who knows perhaps some plentiful new energy source will emerge that will solve many of the issues we are facing. However, hope is no substitute for common sense preparedness. And it is that simple thought that makes me shake my head at the refusal of so many to acknowledge that we face many predicaments in the coming years. Last time I checked, I could not eat hope, I could not burn hope in my furnace to provide heat, and hope does not cure any health afflictions that ail me. Yes, normalcy bias is one of the greatest ailments in our time. The other side of this is simply that everyone knows in their inner self that anything can happen. They believe that by turning a blind eye to these issues that they can not happen. Very strange.

The fact is that this time things are different, the issues are no longer problems but predicaments. Most people have no clue what the difference is.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:14 | 1629444 centerline
centerline's picture

Right on Cooter.  My hat is off to you for every post above.  Very similar to what I have been preaching for some time now.  

We are up against some nasty math this time.  How fast things transpire will determine the level of pain and suffereing that is endured.  And it is a significant possibility that we are heading towards war.  We are most certain up against some serious asymptotes.  The mighty industrial age, fueled by cheap hydrocarbon energy, is coming to an end.  The fiat fire is merely a proxy for the larger issues at play - by no means coincidental.

Alaska is high on my list of places that I consider a good place to go.  I couldn't be further away though.  It is tough with young kids and family that thinks people like us are completely wrong (e.g. that nothing bad will happen - or apparantly will never happen) to just "get up go" in advance of the storm.  Rather, I am ready to just drop everything and bug out at the first sign that the weather is changing for the worse.  "Things" mean nothing to me - my family and friends are my wealth.  Starting over from zero holds no fear over me anymore.

I have to say also that I am simply done with the rat race.  I didn't sign up for this shit - and the acceleration over the last decade is just overwhelming.  The concept of "balance" and "community" is lost on too many, especially in the more affluent communities.  I try to live differently, and teach my family different values than those imposed by society.  As a result, it is amazing how many people gravitate towards our home because the "atmosphere" is different.  Yeah, they return to thier own hell holes aftwerwards, but it is clear that my family is different and going the right direction... just not as far as I think is best.

In the direction this current worldwide mess is going, I believe communities are going to strengthen out of necessity (survival).  The world is going to get alot smaller for most.  The parasitic are going to find themselves in trouble quickly and will make for a great deal of trouble for those who are not.

Ultimately, the ability and willingness to work for the greater good will be key.  Gold and silver will likely help along the way - I think of them as paying passage through troubled times.  Other items are insurance... boy scout "be prepared" sort of things.

Have fun with the jerky.  I make a batch or two from time to time.  Soy sauce mixed with jerk seasoning is my favor variation.  My kids love it too.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:19 | 1629624 g
g's picture

Superb post, community without a doubt will be key in the future with less resources. And wealth is indeed your family and those you value. I do not mind starting over or being self sufficient, although I have many skills to learn yet to become succesful in those goals.

I have long held and discussed with those of like mind that the first to revolt and riot will be those dependent on the system to survive. The entitlement attitude is perhaps another of the great ailments of our time.

Any ideas on how to persuade or at least educate those who we care about to become informed, become prepared, without sounding like a preacher?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 22:24 | 1630559 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg

the perfect explaination.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 22:27 | 1630564 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

after the perfect explaination..

http://www.openfilm.com/videos/psywar

sprinkled with some..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw0D0yG3QmA

and some..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dneFzINvSI8 / http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5Xe_ATNWQQ

when they give you a hard time about those last two video's.. this one will fix the problem --> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqUcScwnn8

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:48 | 1629022 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Red Dog Saloon

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:32 | 1628997 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"but I don't see on the horizon any energy fields which can replace hydrocarbons"

Not being able to see them doesn't mean that someone else hasn't already seen something coming. I'm still expecting a breakthrough in harnessing electromagnetic energy from the Sun at some future date ... but who knows?

However, until we cease being micro-managed by central planning globalists (who will hang onto the hydrocarbon paradigm for as long as possible), nothing will change quickly.

"War is going to be upon us soon."

The Luciferian Globalists are without doubt planning a great war along religious lines soon, but we don't need to join in! Indeed, if we can break up their regional 'Unions' and 'Organisations' through secessions, they'll have neither the authority nor the resources to ignite such a conflict under the cover of "United Nations Peacekeeping".

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:08 | 1629359 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"they'll have neither the authority nor the resources to ignite such a conflict under the cover of "United Nations Peacekeeping". But give them a good kick-ass global crisis in let's say the next three months and watch them grab hold of that authority. Much of what I'm seeing in the current crisis strikes me as manipulated and I keep scratching my head about the "Why". I know Tyler says it's needed to provide cover for QEn+1, and I agree, but my gut says there's more. They will use the crisis to accomplish their goals. I'm not sure what will happen but if it doesn't entail more power and control for 'them' and less freedom and resources for 'us' you can color me surprised.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 10:09 | 1631120 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"Much of what I'm seeing in the current crisis strikes me as manipulated and I keep scratching my head about the "Why"."

It is indeed very manipulated!

The "why" is easily determined by referencing the different aspects of TPTB's well-documented long-term master plan: deindustrialisation of the developed world, massive global population reduction (down by over 90%), and centralised global governance by a ruling elite over a disarmed and starving peasantry.

I suspect they were targetting to achieve this by the end of 2012 ... to neutralise all those idiots who will just sit back and believe that nothing can be done about it because of the "inevitability" of their bible prophesies, Mayan prophesies, Nostradamian prophesies, incoming comets, galactic cycles, or the return of reptilian aliens in UFOs [depending on their particular superstitious belief system ... all of which have been actively promoted by the globalists and perpetuated by their many captive gatekeepers in the churches and alternative media].

The immediate steps, that are well under way, are to bring down the American, then European, industrial systems and leave their peoples largely unemployed and heavily in debt ... both personally and as nations. This is to be followed by a massive religious war ... firstly in a mutual destruction between the muslims and the religious jews, then followed by a christian "crusade" against the remaining muslims, starting with the Shi'a in Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The end objective is to achieve massive depopulation of bible believers and leave the way open for a luciferian oligarchy and technocracy ruling over a disarmed and impoverished--and therefore helpless--populace.

Russia and China are already well under authoritarian control and deeply complicit in the overall strategy ... so we won't see much of them getting actively involved anywhere--either financially or militarily--until after the Middle East and the West have been mostly rid of all religious factions.

If I am correct, expect the next major false flag event to be against one of the major Islamic religious centres of the Middle East (either Al-Aqsa, Mecca, Medina or Qum) ... probably not long after Israel is pressured to accept a peace treaty that pushes them behind pre-1967 borders and places Jerusalem under NATO (ie. Holy Roman Empire) control, with the UN then admitting the Palestinian State to the world body. The jooz will be blamed for the false flag, the raghedz will retaliate, NATO will counter, and the Middle East and Europe will burn. The US will be locked down under DHS/FEMA.

Of course, I could be wrong ... we'll know within the next 12 months............

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:46 | 1628710 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Starting from 1775, tracking until @1971... Allows for you guys to estimate about how long I am.

That's when I'm not using a whippy shaft... And I've switched to the stiffer one.

I love my driver.

Its Friday, bitchezzz.

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