Charting Two Centuries Of Business Booms And Depressions: From 1775 To 1944

Tyler Durden's picture




Because this time is never different...

Business Booms and Depressions Since 1775 (we recommend getting the pdf source)


 

h/t Dirty South

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Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:30 | 1628682 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Long overdue.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:16 | 1628767 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

yes I agree, I am getting scared about what is coming. The guys from http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com have been scarily accurate in the past, and called many things before they happend.  They are saying, we are in for what they call their worst case scenario.  

Most the people alive today have never lived through a depression, and will not know what to do. I think 2012 is the make or break year. Most people will not be prepared for what is coming. Time to prepare was yesterday. 

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:31 | 1628788 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

So what are you doing.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:16 | 1628854 oldman
oldman's picture

Buying a 2013 calendar-----the Maya had to chisel the new calendar out of stone---it's easier now    om

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:05 | 1629045 Michael
Michael's picture

October 10th, 2011 is the stock and bond market day of total world market devastation. Black Monday and Black Tuesday next month beginning October 10th will be market devastation of biblical proportions. You may think the plunges in this September are the big one, you are wrong, that's next month. Yes it is going to happen sooner rather than later.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:21 | 1629062 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Get back to the KKK forum!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:52 | 1629412 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

They told me that 2010 would be the end of the world, as I knew it. They moved that out to 2011, so I stayed put. Now I'm hearing that the end will soon be here in 2012, or thereabouts.

Maybe I shouldn't have quit my job and moved into this bunker.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:27 | 1629646 rocker
rocker's picture

I would simply say that everything has and still is pointing down simce 2010. 2011 improved but has now rolled over.

Don't think it is all good.   We are "Worse than Japan now".  

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1629985 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The world as you knew it IS over.  Absolutely all semblance of "free" markets has been abandoned.  Now we are just coasting.  

You are probably better off in the bunker.  If I didn't feel that my job was the single most important thing that I could do for humanity, I would have quit long ago.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:38 | 1629560 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Krackpot Krash Konspiricies??

...Mmmmm -- Kraaack...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:48 | 1629686 rocker
rocker's picture

Conspiricies?  Nah.  Just a little reality. From Treppor to CNBC to FOX everybody has told us to buy financials.

So the question is, who's their sugar daddy since they have been completely wrong and are still wrong.

Somebody has a motive to want everybody to dump dollars in a failing space. Who are they trying to bail out?

Stupid is as Stupid does.   Buying Financials is just plain Stupid.

When you can see Mark to Market. Buy them. Not until !!!  What hidden time bombs are they holding???

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:21 | 1630163 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

What could ever go wrong with a credit based economy like ours? Only a racist would short the market

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:02 | 1630108 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

LOL

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 04:03 | 1629136 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

Don't look at the bad times....Instead look at the booms during WAR time,

That what we need a good old fashion world WAR. Just think of all the jobs.

sorry kids

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:53 | 1629585 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Broken window fallacy

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:08 | 1629721 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

40 years of Government Evil!

Ignored! or given a Pass!

Fuck a March!

Fuck Protest!

Fuck Painting Posters!

These Evil Fuckers have been Killing Americans of how long?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw0D0yG3QmA

97th Anniversary of the Ludlow Colorado Massacre

Under the command of the Rockefeller family, the National Guard fires at strikers and their families to suppress a strike of twelve thousand workers

http://www.openfilm.com/videos/psywar <----- Thanks "CD"

http://metanoia-films.org/index.php <----- Thanks "CD"

You idiots better wake up!

You will be killed laying down or standing..

There can be NO! Peace!!

An Armed Nation of 300 million? 5 to 10 guns per person with 8 to 10 Billion Bullets a year being sold! going back for the last decade!!

They want Population control and they want us to kill each other!

Have you ever noticed how it is the Jews or Aztlan??? but NEVER!! The Fault of the Blue Bloods who really own everything???

The game has already been fought and won.. "We the People" lost.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:16 | 1629815 rocker
rocker's picture

Always good stuff JW.  Wouldn't it be great if somebody continued this great chart from 1944 on.

The best thing I could find that shows where we are headed is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 16:57 | 1629980 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Stop with the racial shit man!

 

We have that douchebag Michael here spewing anti-semetic vitriol around here. And so let's not fault blue bloods or any other race.

 

This is a HUMAN PROBLEM. Homo Sap is bad animal....

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:25 | 1630170 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Fuck off asshole. What exactly did the Tibetans or Aborigines do to contribute to this problem? Why are they bad animals? What did I do to contribute to the Gall Street and London bankers wreaking havoc with the world's economy? It's not the average guy working 50 hours a week and living within his means that is behind this mess. Don't compare him or her to the asshole big bankers and politicians

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 20:44 | 1630419 Hive Raid
Hive Raid's picture

Quit spewing your "Homo Sap".

You reek of ancient lies, more shrill with desperation now than in the last few decades of dinosaur media dominance.

We seeeee youuuuuuuuuu.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 17:51 | 1630085 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

For the past two weeks PFS Group has been interviewing some interesting guests. Dennis Cuddy put out a lot of conspiracy stuff I hadn't heard before.

A Global Currency and a Global Central Bank

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/09/02/dennis-l-cuddy-phd/the-master-plan-a-global-currency-and-global-central-bank

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:05 | 1630116 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Oh yes, your enemies or your prey kill eachother.  Almost as good as taking everything from your prey with no resistance, owning your prey and everything he thinks he owns.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 12:10 | 1631405 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Speaking the truth again J.W.  Careful, you are on "the list".

Yeah, the best thing we can do is ignore those blue bloods, start dealing with are own neighbors and neighborhoods and stop sending all that usury to those relative few.  All one has to do is recognize that the "elite owners" can't actually DO anything by themselves. Then the future starts to look a bit brighter. 

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 13:56 | 1631626 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

well said LoP, the key is to withdraw your power of attention.   but before we do, ever wonder why they're called bluebloods?    maybe because they were drinking too much collodial silver?

ever hear anything about monoatomic transition elements?   curious what a hard scientist might think about them.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:16 | 1629733 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Krugman basically said that in a CNN segment (he put it in aliens from outer space terms).  The WW will be their last ditch effort to jump start the economy.  Looks like the Mideast and north Africa will be the theater.  Iran will be the "bad guy".

Still looking for a man made pandemic to emerge that targets people 60+ (seniors).  This would solve quite a few problems, if they could get a 70% death rate.  Solves social security and medicare problems.  Transfers a great deal of wealth to younger generation to spend.  Keeps the worker bees alive to keep making honey for the Banksters and their politician puppets.  Look for more exotic flu seasons over the next five years, drug resistant strains, etc...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1629757 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Draft Boomers to fight Krugman's War...I suspect they would enjoy  that to reduce the medicare deficit problems and lighten the load on the SS system. More subtle but vicious then Death Panels...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:27 | 1630180 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Don't forget the $1 trillion spent on the welfare slugs annually

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:37 | 1628800 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I'm going with DEC-21-2012. Why? I'm beginning to think the Maya are correct in that the current world ends and another begins. Each era according to the Maya is 5,126 years. Considering degradation this number of years may fit perfectly with their predictions. There may have been survivors from the prior 5,126 year era and recorded it for the people that will live in future era's. The Neanderthals may very well have been the top species from another era. I wonder what sort of entity will replace us. Perhaps that's the Alien Invasion Krugman is talking about.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:00 | 1628831 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Unless there is a "cosmic force" in the terms of a cycle in the Sun that blows shit up (an example), your post is complete numerology tripe. Don't mean to be an ass, just sayin.

Human history is very poorly accounted for in many regards. In fact, its is highly likely that "ancient societies" traded across the Pacific/Atlantic long before JC was born. How would we know? Leather/Paper books? Hah! We don't know shit.

For a society today to portend their understanding of a society millenia gone is silly.

Our problem (collectively) is that we have shit our pants, just like a pre-schooler, and we are running around with full drawers pretending we aren't ... <cough/> ... in deep shit.

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:07 | 1628840 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I thought the Krugman reference would out my post as sarcasm  ; )

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:32 | 1628882 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

you both sound like me! LOL!!! O! NO!! anything but fun and fighting and sarcasm!!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 02:22 | 1629064 Michael
Michael's picture

I like fun, fighting, and sarcasm too.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:40 | 1629478 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

you need to work on presenting the facts in a way that can not be used against you and thusly against the very cause that you say you are tyring to help.

if you are not presenting the facts in a palatable fashion then you are just stroking your own ego.

you are damn well smart enough to understand what I am saying.

if you are on the team then start acting like it! instead of undermining others work and giving the scum ammo to use against any and all of us.

once again..

if you are not winning the hearts and minds how will you ever be able to say mission accomplished?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:29 | 1628940 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

:-)

I am pedantic. It is a curse and a blessing! I generally think positively of your posts, and this one I was like ... what the hell? So, I did what I always do, for better or worse.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:01 | 1629294 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"I thought the Krugman reference would out my post as sarcasm  ; )"

Sometimes you have to speak slowly and use small words in order to be understood. Too bad about that.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:44 | 1628894 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Dec 2012 is when the Large Hadron Collider will be operating at it's highest energy beam 14Tev.  Basically, if you agree with the transaction theory of quantum mechanics, a higgs boson will travel back in time to our world, and prevent the higgs boson from being discovered, by distorting how the wave function collapses, coinciding with the end of the EMU,  which funds CERN, possibly leading to world wide financial collapse.  But by that time, the Large Hadron Collider will have stopped operations, from lack of funding, or other ripple effects from the end of the EMU.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:42 | 1628958 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Modern physics reads to me, as a believable story line, like a porn flick. It is complete, unadulterated, bullshit. Un-possible? Meh. Still unadulterated bullshit.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:13 | 1628984 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My uncle retired some years ago as a physics professor.  Physics turned out to be too hard for me, so I chose another major.

I asked him once, maybe 4 - 5 years ago, what he thought of string theory.  He did not think much of it.  Unprovable was his main objection.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:02 | 1629156 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

As a side note, it's becoming a bit if a problem in that String Theory has been around long enough that there are now Universities whose science departments are run by "String Guys."

You eirther drink the Kool Aid about a theory in which basically no experimental method exists for verification or you're plumb out of a job.

But with 16 million AMericans out of work I guess no one will cry for some unemplyed egg heads.

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:32 | 1629466 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

You mean like the way AGW is now "de rigeur" to the point that Gore says if you don't believe you're a modern day racist? 

 

I believe in what is provable through whatever means necessary.  Man made global warming (or cooling, or climate change, or whatever you want to call it) is unprovable.  It's impossible to prove the relationship.  You can show correlation, but not causation.  This is true of all physical "evidence" from previous warm periods, too.  CO2 may coexist with warmth in 3 out of 5 warm periods, and that's enough for the climatologists to "prove" it's man made.

 

String Theory is interesting, and it MAY be provable - but isn't as yet.  As a result, let's keep an eye on it as well as other theories (I find it intriguing that many physicists are also signed on in opposition to AGW...I started as a physics major and have maintained my interest in it over the years).  Physics is very provable at most levels, except the very smallest - when it becomes a matter of statistical probability, and there are good reasons for this which fall into areas of discussion that most people (including myself) begin to fall asleep or not understand fully. 

 

As for the future of the stock market, or the market in general, I believe we're in for one more big downdraft, and either a massive inflation (most likely) or deflation (much preferable) which will be followed on by a restructuring of many nations, cultures, and societies.  I highly doubt a war scenario, but don't rule anything out.  Societies and cultures have knee-jerk reactions when they feel threatened.  Just because we've got alot of democracies in the world today doesn't mean or prove anything.  It just means larger masses of people are ruled by politicians who have managed to effectively control the agenda to convince people they are free, even as they give up more and more of their freedoms.

As my train conductor said to me "If more people read the Declaration of Independence, and the Constitution, we'd have had some very different men in the White House....and Congress...and the state house...and I'd be allowed to live out of state where I can afford it as opposed to in state, where I can't."  Seemingly "practical" laws such as this sap our people of the ability to grow the economy.  Sure, allowing 100 conductors to move to the next state won't improve the economy much, but if regulations similar to this were scrapped, and 500,000 workers in the US could make similar moves - now we're talking.

Rules like this exist everywhere in the US - coercion is the ONLY means the government has to get its way.  And right now, its way is NOT OUR way.  It is the way THEY want it....and they don't give a damn about you and me.  Time to Lock and Load - figuratively.  But if it comes to literally - I'm prepared for that, too.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 12:15 | 1631410 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Nothing is "provable" in science (at least when dealing with an honest scientist or engineer), there are only testable hypotheses.  Gravity and the theory of the movement of electrons in magnetic fields (electricity) are still, and will always be "just theories or hypotheses".

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:47 | 1629021 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"Modern physics reads to me, as a believable story line, like a porn flick"

So you don't believe most appliance repairmen or cable guys coming to a woman's home in So Cal are called "Cal Jammer?"

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:36 | 1629398 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

What's not to be believed about an infinite universe theory where all alternative histories and futures are real?  Actually a universe where Krugman isn't a Keynesian douchebag is a little too much to be believed.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:00 | 1629592 toxic8
toxic8's picture

The Universe is Holographic.

 

http://www.amazon.com/Holographic-Universe-Michael-Talbot/dp/0060922583

 

Read it. . . you'll be glad you did :)

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:25 | 1629638 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

But - you mean Kruggie ISN'T a tentacled lesbo skank from the fourth dimension?

Must be the beard that threw me off...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 18:31 | 1630192 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

You must be referring to the brown dwarf star following behind Comet Elenin visiting an Earth near you this fall on its 3.600 yr orbit (cycle?)

Some say it knocks us back to the Stone age every time or 2 it comes by.....

Planetary alignments with this thing cause earthquakes - next one on Sept 26 according to NASA JPL. 

 http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=elenin;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WsPTcl2z9w

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:10 | 1628847 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

I can only imagine what kind of legislation a lame duck President abd CONgress will invent right before the holiday break prior to Inuaguration day on January 20, 2013...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1629622 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Anything that can be passed can be overturned, or better still, ignored.

Fear not the politician.  He is of lowly and weak character.  You are better armed.  Accept it.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:16 | 1628855 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

 LJS - Neanderthal and Krugman, belong to the same sentence.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:57 | 1629419 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I take it you don't care much for Neanderthals.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:41 | 1629332 centerline
centerline's picture

Just for shits and giggles, I read somewhere that the calendar we use has been altered numerous times.  There are also calculation differences.  According to some sources, the 12/21/2012 by Mayan standards is really 10/28/2011 in our current calendar!

FWIW - I give no credibility to this 2012 crap.  Probably some Mayan walked up to the calendar maker and and said "WTF man!  2012?!  Stop there. We will make a new one that goes out further when we need it!   Damn!"

But, it is spooky considering the potential here at this juncture.  LOL.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 10:57 | 1629420 Seer
Seer's picture

I don't pretend to know whether it's crap or not, just that there's little that I could do about it one way or another.  But... there are two things that come to mind that won't allow me to dismiss it outright:

1) Earth's glacial cycles (I'm a firm believer in these, as described by John D. Hamaker- it's a big soil re-till operation);

2) Chariots of the Gods - have to admit that some of those cave paintings are pretty interesting, stuff that is pretty darn close to rocketry (no squinting required).

Glacial periods will pretty much erase our records; however, and perhaps similar to those cave paintings, we may scribble crap somewhere that will survive such that one day beings (humans?) will scratch their heads and wonder- WTF?  And speaking of cave artifacts, what of the global seed vault (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Global_Seed_Vault)?  Is this all one big deja vu?  Are we a collective Sisyphus?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:41 | 1629477 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

I believe in aliens, but I don't believe they were here before.  It's possible we're "descended" from a group that landed here - but it was a rare and singular event.  If they had been here before, why haven't they come back?

Furthermore, why didn't they conquer us?  Even if they were extremely advanced, I'm sure the will to overpower and rule has not diminished.  Politicians exist in every society (even the intelligentsia).  So I doubt they came down, helped a few societies build pyramids and paintings, then leave.  It's absurd beyond belief to think that - utterly irrational.  And people tend toward the irrational, so it's no surprise many believe it could've happened.

 

The Seed Bank is interesting, but here's the rub:  who's to say that after any massive glacial period, those seeds will survive in a new climate without being overwhelmed by new species - or becoming dangerous hybrids?  Sure, it's a great effort and probably worthwhile, but in the end we're still only servants to Nature.

Anyone who is opposed to "frankencrops" should oppose this effort.  Since I think gene manipulation is a good thing (it's just agriculture by other means....we could do all this by mixing and matching crops over millions of years or do it with gene manipulation - what's the difference?), I think the Seed Vault's probably a good idea, but will not end up providing the value back that was put into it.  Thus, economically, it's a waste of money, time and effort.  But we shall see.  We have lots of people on earth...so we have to keep them all busy.

 

I'm a fan of Julian Simon.  In the end, the optimists win.  In the short term, the pessimists rule.

 

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 13:26 | 1629641 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

If they had been here before, why haven't they come back?

Are you absolutely sure they haven't?

Simon's observation is self-evidently true.  If the optimists did NOT win long-term, who'd know?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:13 | 1629808 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I hope they are storing some weed. :D

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:09 | 1629434 Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

I always figured that was what fit on that hunk of stone. No more no less.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:43 | 1629569 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

please look here

http://www.jamesmaxlow.com/main/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=7&MMN_position=6:6.@

to quickly see the idea (1of14 about 1 minute in) model view again and again, and just try to think a bit differently than the way you were taught.

we know so little.

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:33 | 1629549 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Yeah, well, the Maya were full of shit, too...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:16 | 1629734 SPADOC4
SPADOC4's picture

Yes, but the cube root of 5126 is 17.2427.

 

Just sayin...

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:48 | 1628962 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Fed will never let great depression happen again. They will print till China invades US.

 

At the same time, we won't have 2006 massive bull run either. Asset prices must deflate. Productivity must increase.

 

The shithole condition US is in now will just continue.

 

Empires are not built over night. Empires do not fall over night. They decline over centuries.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:13 | 1629165 Joshua Falken
Joshua Falken's picture

Why would China invade the US, you don't have anything they want.  Energy and other tangible assets like gold and copper are real currency that cannot be devalued by printing.

 

China will get aggressive in protecting and acquiring those assets (like the South China Sea and the Spratleys), but the USA is not an imperial target.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:02 | 1629239 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

No, you're right.  China won't, and wouldn't be able in invade the U.S. - It just just about impossible for them to get a large enough force here to do anything - unless Mexico or Canda allowed them to set up a staging area - where they could mass a million or so troops  -  so anyone worried about China coming here has not thought it out well.

But...the chances of us going to war with China (maybe in the next 10-20 years) are actually pretty good I'd say. 

But, it will start on one of the Islands (Taiwan for example)...or on Korea (big Brother china "helps" North Korea "unify)....there are probably quite a few scenarios...and rest assured - the Pentagon already has ,assive spending plans for each one of them...hahaha

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:21 | 1629260 Landrew
Landrew's picture

We will fight over the remaining oil in the middle east. As the production rates continue to fall middle east oil will be far more valuable. I think you see the tar sands pipeline as proof production is limited. Tar sands oil is only profitable at over 75$ a barrel. What really is funny that the Mexican gov. continues to sell raw crude rather than value added products for more profit. Mexico has declining production rates of 6% y/y! Oh, there will be war, there is no choice. When you have to mine and cook your energy all previous low cost economies are doomed to depression. We can only hope these wars remain non-nuclear? It's not about war it's about what kind of war.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 08:29 | 1629267 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Huxley,

Umm, China probably isn't going to invade the country that owes them 1T in bond debt. Perhaps suicide would be cheaper, faster and easier than them picking a fight with us. 

And by the way, nuclear war heads don't require "invasions".

 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:26 | 1629319 Got_Nukes
Got_Nukes's picture

China does have those warheads that can reach us, but we can see them as they are being fueled

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 15:35 | 1629855 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Ahhh perhaps... "Magnificent images were captured by the KCBS news helicopter in L.A. around sunset Monday evening. The location of the missile was about 35 miles out to sea, west of L.A. and north of Catalina Island."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/09/national/main7036716.shtml

You wish to debate if the missle was Chinese? 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:30 | 1629323 Crassus
Crassus's picture

It's against Chinese thinking and teaching, of all eras, to fight for a thing which can be gained by other means.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:10 | 1629435 Seer
Seer's picture

"Empires do not fall over night."

Is that a literal "over night," as in 12 hours, or as in "a very short amount of time, like months?"  The Soviet Union, which was an empire, went VERY fast.  Even if there had been no previous instance noted that still doesn't mean that it couldn't, as you assert, happen.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 08:45 | 1631165 e-recep
e-recep's picture

You think it went fast because you couldn't know what was boiling inside. The Soviet empire was not transparent.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 23:57 | 1630659 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

The Chinamen have already begun their invasion.

Been to the left coast of US & Canada lately?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 09:57 | 1629346 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

have said this previously ..... after much reading & research .... while not totally exactly the same (nothing ever is a perfect match, especially when it comes to human behavior), right now sure looks like Summer of 1931.

There is a misconception that the stock market crash of 1929 led to great depression. Au contraire.

Less than 4% of US population owned equities. And a lot of precautions and concern went into managing USA to soft landing after booming 1920s. Pres. Hoover got big biz to guarantee no mass lay-offs or wage cuts for 12-18 months ... which was largely honored. While a credit contraction began and some weaker banks folded, overall it was not as bad as 1907 or early 1890s vicious panics.

Now for the comparison: Europe as the driving dynamic.

As late as Summer of 1931, arguably everything was still 'manageable'.

But, protectionism started to rear it's ugly head via tariff proposals at the worst possible moment. Why?

Because a proposed customs union between Austria and Germany , deemed a direct violation of the Versailles Treat following WW1, ticked off the French and others.

So the French, and British, who had extensive central/eastern Europe loans, in 'protest', massively and suddenly withdrew cash /deposits. In direct line of fire was Rothschilds Creditstaldt Bank in Austria which collapsed in August (?) 1931. This 'run' immediately spread to unstable Hungary, Rumania, etc. , rest of Austria, then Germany , then Britain & France itself. By the Fall of 1931, large, more international NY banks were drawn into this crisis. All the Europeans wanted US gold and so started withdrawing substantial deposits to be repaid in gold. Hoover rushed alternative after alternative to create credit backstop 'buy-time' solution, but they were half-step too late and cynical self-interest had already set-in. Britain went off the gold standard and within weeks 20-30 countries followed. This put further withdrawal pressure on American banks, vulnerable from downturn of 1929 crash.

In 60 days at end of 1931 calendar, the US bank run leaped across the Atlantic as US depositors panicked following the domino like collapse of NY internationally tied banks.

The Federal Reserve, hoping to stop the gold withdrawals by a needy, anxious Europe, raised interest rates, so credit contracted. Employers now had no choice but to slash their labor forces and fragile consumer demand disappeared ....... monetary velocity came to an almost complete stop, and on and dismally on....

Europe, had a decent conceptual foundation to rebuild post-WW1. Senior financiers were aware of the reality about Germany's ability to pay reparations. USA's Andrew Mellon and UK's Montagu, both realistic biz financiers had argued, and convinced, the hostile populations of former WW1 allies, Congress, French assemblies and Parliament, to 'take' what they could 'get' and what Germany could realistically 'pay'. They also tried to re-establish the gold standard without fractional reserve lending that had served the economic growth of the West largely in the 19th Century and early 20th Century until the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand changed the 'security' question of then Europe. But this all came undone in the Creditstaldt withdrawals that set-off a chain-reaction that collapsed western modernity and belief in capitalism.

The reality is that 'capitalism' was not the 'issue' but, as always, the folly of humanity and human weaknesses.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:06 | 1629515 Seer
Seer's picture

"Less than 4% of US population owned equities."

I don't think that this is as trivial as you might suggest.  Consider that, today, it is only a small percentage of people that hold the majority of the wealth.  It is these people's behavior that tends to cause the economy to shift.  Further, nothing really happens unless equities are traded; it used to be that people held stuff for a LONG time (pre-HFT days).

Also, it's likely (I don't have any data, so I can't provide any facts or sense of certainty) that there were a lot more medium-sized businesses that weren't public (offering stock) and that were direct feeders to those that were.

This all said, I think, because TPTB want it that way, that the story of the "economy" is really only told through the handful of people holding and controlling the major equities, and as such we tend to only think of our economic activities through this window.  We know that there's lots happening outside of the stock markets, it's just that it's not clear how much (again, TPTB don't want us to believe that we can operate outside of Their economic structure).

If you're linked into TPTB's economic structure then that small percentage can whip you around with ease.

During the 1930s the linkage was forming quite quickly.  I cannot quantify it, perhaps no one really can, but it's pretty clear that a small percentage of people were able to cause a significant shift.  Linked in, people are but mere fleas on the dog's tail.  I doubt that the woman in this famous picture had owned equities: http://0.tqn.com/d/history1900s/1/0/a/gd45.gif

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:06 | 1629713 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

"There is a misconception that the stock market crash of 1929 led to great depression. Au contraire."

Agreed. The stock market crash preceded the larger downturn in the main b/c, it's easier to liquidate securities than it is to sell hard assets. But the deflation (and its attendant decline in velocity and world trade) was baked in from the start.

The culprit behind the fall in stocks and later in real assets, in my view, was the preceding enormous build up in credit. In the US, the foundation of federal credit was initially expanded to fight the war (nearly 10-fold as the article's chart shows).

In addition, the credit expansion was also accompanied by a great expansion in what constituted eligible bank assets. Mortgages, for example, for the first time were considered by (some) banks as suitable assets. In other words, there was also a marked deterioration in the quality of bank assets at the same time those assets expanded greatly. By the late 1920s, the weight of this credit burden became insupportable and it collapsed w/the first signs showing up in a scramble for liquidity on Wall Street.  So the stock market collapse did not cause the GD, it was merely the first manifestation of the underlying disease.

BTW, this massive buildup in credit also illustrates the folly of England's return to the gold standard in 1925...at the old pre-war parity. English resumption, in other words, completely ignored the previous decade of credit inflation, and virtually assured a collapse in international trade inasmuch as London was an important international clearinghouse. (Resumption at a rate that reflected the inflation would have implied big purchasing power losses for debt holders.)

So I agree w/your basic premise that the similarities between then an now are very interesting; only the orders of magnitude this time around are quite a bit larger.

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 17:23 | 1632177 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Withdrawn Sanction,

I recall reading that Joe Kennedy went short before the market crash in 1929 because he saw something in the currency markets that tipped him off...something related to the British Pound.

Does this ring a bell for you?

If so, please elaborate.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:48 | 1629780 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

ReactionToClose

Very nice thumbnail sketch of financial history!

How did you come to see so clearly?

Sun, 09/04/2011 - 08:59 | 1631179 e-recep
e-recep's picture

Under every ZH article there are one or two useful informative posts. This is definitely one of them.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 12:03 | 1629510 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

we are in for the worst case scenerio because fiat regimes never last more than a hundred years........so 2013, sounds about right....

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:43 | 1628898 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Some one / bevel your Bicuspids.

 

    YEN cross"  POOF!

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 01:44 | 1629017 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Nice job Tyler/Tylers.  Gee I could be over on Wall Street Journal/Barrons reading crap from idiots fawning over Obama's pal Buffett.  The Orifice of Omaha.  ZH, for the most part, rocks.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 14:10 | 1629725 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

"The Orifice of Omaha"  Good one.  WS chuckles quietly to himself.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 21:49 | 1630497 sensemaker
sensemaker's picture

yep, that makes sense

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:32 | 1628686 ninja-ish
ninja-ish's picture

this will be the LAST one. then WWIII. last war. and back to gold.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:38 | 1628703 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

no. after WWIII, back to rocks and sticks.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 21:44 | 1628713 mcguire
mcguire's picture

per albert pike, after ww3 will be a luciferian paradise.. 

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/07/albert-pike-letter-to-m...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 22:14 | 1628760 john39
john39's picture

Their symbols are already all over everything, just have to know what to look for. Regardless of what you believe about it, they believe it.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 23:41 | 1628895 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

"This letter has been claimed by many internet sites to reside in the British Library in London , which denies the letter exists."

Well imagine that. Like any BS conspiracy theory it can no longer be proved. So somehow Pike in 1870 knew it would be called the "Nazi Party"? Come on. The sheeple will grasp onto any conspiracy to avoid having to face the real truth. That is, NO ONE is in control. Come on. The Illuminati? If they do exist then they are the good guys. The dumb sheep are the evil ones. Without the will or lack of will of the dumb human cattle, none of the banksters could do what they are doing today.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 00:50 | 1628960 flacon
flacon's picture

NAZI - do you mean the NAtional ZIonists party?

 

What I still want to know is what happened to the IDEOLOGY of the NAZI party, and where did their members escape to after WWII? A war is won when the IDEOLOGY is defeated, not when the spirit is crushed. 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 05:06 | 1629160 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

You know, I was asking myself the same question just the other day.

Whatever happened to our Nazi Ideals, am I right people?

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 06:11 | 1629187 ping
ping's picture

I'm hoping that people are reading the Pike/Nazi/Illuminati stuff with tongue stuck firmly in cheek. (If I misread and everyone is - sorry.)

The Pike text uses so many phrases and names that are decades before their times, it can't be real. There's so much complexity inherent in multi-faceted systems - i.e. Life! - that no-one can really pull levers like that. If they could, Ben Bernanke would already have had plastic surgery to look like Tom Selleck, he'd be a pro athlete, and none of us would spit on him in the street.

We don't need illuminati, or zionist conspiracies, or communist ones. People are a selfish, and giddy, and do dumb things. Even if they're powerful, like bankers or politicians. Most of us, them included, are along for the journey, and try to ride the wave the best we can. 

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 07:21 | 1629223 destiny
destiny's picture

Try to think about what the N O W is supposed to be all about !! CONSPIRING is in all historical facts since the dawn of man !  So you think that illuminatis are in it just like us, street sheeple ? we're too stupid to let hem do what they want ?  how in the hell are you supposed to face that when gvts, armies, media are part of their artillery ! well, it's been all orchestrated in my view...they may not control the chaos and the way thinks fall apart one by one, but they sure as hell know where they are going...look on the chess board and see how the richest are placing their pions.

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