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Charting Two Centuries Of Business Booms And Depressions: From 1775 To 1944
Because this time is never different...
Business Booms and Depressions Since 1775 (we recommend getting the pdf source)
h/t Dirty South
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It's not nice to fool Mother Nature.......
Great graphic, love it.
I liked the note about debt and how much debt was compared to property values (100% at the time, projected to go to 300% by end of WWII). It would be interesting to see an update to that.
"... And the Chicken Heart grew. dump dump dump dump " - Bill of the family Cosby.
Blast from the past - those Cosby records are so awesome! =]
I adore charts! Nice work Tylers! That 76 Fibi aud/usd held when the DOW bottomed in N.Y.(, said it all..? And so the 61.8 (2 pips) above says it all. Let's play the GAP?
nihil sub sole novum
Plakatis Maximus? T-10 = 2.05?
historia magistra vitae et testis temporum
Corectus maximus? / sub minus twosus?/
God bless War { SARC } BURP?
Hey don't forget you can watch a Typhoon hitting just south of the Fukushima nuke disater live on TEPCO's own webcam
check it our
http://www.tepco.co.jp/nu/f1-np/camera/index-j.html
Speaking of ? Hey NODAQ?
NODA ) R.S.V.P.(nn ...> NOW < intervention > or offshore purchases?>
must.....reinforce.....stone.....walls...with......molybdenum.....rebars......
Like sands thru the hour glass, so are the days of our lives........
Greek 2's @ 79% Good luck on that payback. The EURO is toast.
The quimsical euro ( knuckle heads) are toast!
just got back from 6th... i'm shitty as hell but that comment made me nearly puke.
you fuckin' serious? 79%?
You're kidding, right? 79%? Hell, they were a touch above 40% just last week. Please walk (dont run) to the nearest exit, Aristotle. Women and children first.
K-waves are just another version of the Chinese proverb that "wealth does not survive 3 generations"..
The Chinese should learn the trick from Rockefeller, Rothschild, House of Winsor, House of Orange-Nassau.
Tylers,
You guys should contract WB7 to extend that chart out to present. Then make it for "sale" on your site.
I'll give you an oz of Ag for one..
thx..
I would buy one .....
niiiiiicceeee www.silverrevolucion.com
Anyone else notice the trend after 1913?
We are long overdue for a SHTF event.
Fukushima was that for my money -- seriously people will be dying in droves prematurely for ages there as well as where the currents are floating to from that cesspool of crap. Mix-in the economic fall out of a dying and overly indebted society and you have the makings for a bad scene to last 60+ K-wave years
I wonder what the chart would have looked like had the US economy been non-war based.
Any ideas?
3 year war.. 13 years of depression.. deflation.
4 year war.. 13 years of depression.. deflation.
another, 4 year war.. 13 years of depression.. deflation.
10 years in Iraq / Afganistan... "??" years of depression.. deflation.
It is why we are; "Worse than Japan Now".
are you quoting someone else?
or do you think that "We" as a Nation are in worse shape?
I will answer the later as it applies to you and I cant or would rather not comment on a quote by someone else unless I see the context in which the quote was pulled from.
I dont think America is as bad off as Japan.. we can't be..
If the idea stems from Japan's lost decade (or two, LOL!).. I will say that there has been NO! Lost decade!
Yep! I said it! the quality of life for the broader populace in Japan was reduced..
But America for the most part.. made Toyota the number one car manufacturer in the World.. We bought T.V.'s, IPODS, anything we could get our hands on.. and then Japan manufactures the high tech parts for the region.. so even though China puts it together Japan makes a LOT! of the parts used to put those "things" together.
so.. Japan's "LOST DECADE" is bullshit.. plain and simple.
the idea was sold to Japan.. to quell the people or calm the people before they had a chance to get hot under the collar.
I will try to answer the question better if you provide me with some better criteria for the question.
Sushi Bitchez!!
spain capped its debt!!! hooray!!! we are all saved!!! i wonder if their debt ceiling is made of manchego????
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2091656,00.html
Interesting how much bigger those panics and booms got after the Fed got involved.
Kind of blows the "oh there were lots of panics before the Fed" argument out of the water. They were short and shallow before the Fed, now they are so broad and deep that we risk systemic collapse every time we go into one.
I'd like to see the same methodology applied to later years, up through the present. I think we would see some interesting things in the 70's and 2000's.
Zactly. Fewer but bigger versus smaller but moderatly rhythmic.
I came down the stairs a couple of days ago to find a strange man in my kitchen.
he was leaning against the wall with his arms above his head as if getting his breath and head together.
as i'm not in the usa i dont have a gun and so let him live.
we've had workmen in the house so i sized him up for a moment wondering if he was here to put the finishing touches on the kitchen.
to look at him i could tell he was weatherbeaten, i could see bags of our stuff on the floor,
and so i challenged him - Who are you? What the fuck are you doing?
He pointed to the bags, he said 'These things are yours...' and bolted out the back door.
i chased him down the street but as i was in my dressing gown and nothing else i gave up.
i looked through our stuff, all bagged up.... ipods , usual stuff and lots of wierd shit... coasters, cutlery... hadn't touched the TV or media.
he'd had a cigarette in the kitchen and obviously had been there for 2 or 3 hours....ate some food.
probably heard me get up and have a shower... waited ... in the end he got cash out of the wallet and thats it. took hours to unpack all the stuff.
fucking wierd eh? i guess he was high.. but it got me thinking.
This is the fall of rome all over again, its coming ... and we are going to live through it
and you have some weird light around yourself? That somehow you'll get through it all without so much as a scratch...
yeah wierd, i reckon there's 10 coward burglers for every hard nut , he wasn't intimidating , a bit like Iggy Pop,
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?q=iggy+pop&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1093&bih=690&t...
i reckon in my life me and my family has had about 3 or 4 attempts at burglary...people knocking on doors with bullshit excuses about car breaking down, can they sleep in driveway then driving off,,,, thats in countries with no guns where people dont expect to be blown away if the owner comes along
but fuck it, another life story goes by.
you can tell i'm not in the UK because there burglars shit on your bed.
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1498102
Get out of SW Sydney! j/k
I live on the third floor and open doors to no-one.
G'day, mate,
yeah well u can understand... the budz r so good that i just thought he was another stoner.
this whole place in under a haze of it sometimes.
that reminds me , my timtams! he got my goddam timtams!
he left the vegemite behind???????????
over here they make you do the shittin.
The Illinois Enema Banditillinois is sooooooooooooooooooooooo backwards that they dont even believe in the Constitution.
the property in that shot hole of a state is worth $0.15 - $0.05 on the dollar..
the state of illinois can not afford to pay for the gas in the state troopers cars.. gas stations will NOT! take the state of illinois credit card! LOL!!
illinois is not a state as much is it the middle of no where.. with NOTHING good there.. and when I say NOTHING!! I really can not put into words just how mush NOTHING there is for people stuck living in that shit hole police state.
illinois makes Kalifornia look GREAT!
They pick on the Amish! LOL!! the Amish?? fucking seriously!
You +1'd this publicly. Undo Dec 8, 2010 – By Mark Rhoads This is why no one should ever trust the FDA with more power with food inspection or other important duties involving food ...
The Illinois Supreme Court on a Warrantless Search of a ...
criminal.lawyers.com/.../14926-The-Illinois-Supreme-Court-on-a-W... - Cached You +1'd this publicly. Undo Aug 1, 2011 – The Illinois Supreme Court on a Warrantless Search of a Probationer's Home ... On May 19, 2011, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that a ...
You +1'd this publicly. Undo
Dec 23, 2010 – State troopers have been turned away from gas stations which have refused to accept the state's credit cards. Kroft: The state's a deadbeat. ...
RUN!! from that shit hole!! dont walk! and sdont wait! RUN AS FAST AS YOU CAN!! as FAR as you can!! get away before the darkness surrounds you and takes hold of your Soul!
illnois is NOT America!!
Reality Checks from New Jersey, Illinoisthenewamerican.com/.../5627-reality-checks-from-new-jersey-illinoi... - Cached
Illinois Review: FDA Raids Amish Farms Without Search Warrantillinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/.../fda-raids-amish-farms-... - Cached
Sounds like you encountered Bizarro Santa
So what continent are you on if you don't want to mention the country. Smoking in my house (USA)? I would have shot the f*cker just for smoking in my house.
Fall of Rome? Well if you are in Europe - it might not be so bad because the indigenous population might get smart and give the Isla*ists an alternative.
Go back home on a boat now or we give you a one way ticket to Allah.
Australia cobber, yep europe is well fucked glad i'm not there, fucking guilt of empire has raised a population of fairies, bending over for mohammed - most popular boys name in uk for last 2years and forever more now... a fact suppressed by lefty MSM over there.
But would u shoot him?... thats what i thought , i like guns, but killing him for that would have been too much. creepy he was there for so long though.
watched unforgiven the other night - 'terrible thing to kill a man... take away all he has.'
Your intruder could have easily had a knife or other implement that would end your life. You were at his mercy, and just plain lucky. Even if you don't have a gun (and sounds like you are not inclined to shoot anyway) there are other things that will give you an advantage and or standoff distance. Closet rod, bat, mace spray, chair.
So.. 2002 - 2008 was the war prosperity era (dubbed military keynesianism) and what follows is a 13-year deflation, or do we require a major destructive international geopolitcal conflict?
Google Chart - ATI
http://ow.ly/6kqte
There are historical cycles even longer than this beautiful chart (thnx Tyler). Which explains why, for a long time things seem like "this time is never different". In the small picture, that holds true more often than not. In the big picture, change is the constant. Depends on the time horizon being looked at: evolutionary history? Geological history? Change has been the the agent of progress and the constant. Sometimes sudden, violent change. Other times more gradual. But one can never predict.
As far as our little world of today, some things are never different and other things will always be different. I think we all can appreciate that the mood of the country has changed rather drastically from August 2008 to August 2011. So has the global economy. Even the geopolitical map of the world has changed mostly because of the Arab spring. If we get a Eurozone breakup it will change again. US economics and politics will change.
What a great graphic. Big thanks to the ZH gang. Where the hell did you guys dig that out from.....?
snicker at the stlouisfed domain.
Tough, tough.
Fun.
Wont disturb all of the gang who keeps thinking that war is not a source of prosperity. But ummmmm, in the case of the US and thanks to this chart, wooooo, woooooo...
Better from now to consider that war is not source of prosperity is another cheap propaganda attempt by US citizens who want to cover the fact they have achieved prosperity thanks to war so many times...
Incredible!
Over 100 comments and NO-ONE HAS MENTIONED the fact that
and
And when you study post WWII economic history, you see that the same basic trend continues in place.
Pop quiz: What does that mean for PM's and equities going forward?
THiS SiTe iS ReaLLY SLaCKiN'.
Highrev....so are commodities peaking? Is this the beginning of the deflationary period where stocks do well anyway? I guess I expected a long deflationary period to take hold in everything, making for a Great Re-Pricing of sorts, but it has not materialized. I guess I either need to stop being reasonable, stop using logic or old yardsticks to formulate upcoming scenarios or just realize that in order for a real deflatinoary period to set in.....people will have to lose. Some would lose big, like banks, but others that will stay locked into the mkt via retirement funds will get crushed. So far, that has not been allowed to happen and its being re-branded as a new modern aspect of the business cycle. Would seriously like to hear what you think.
My opinion is (and has been for months now) that's what the Fed would like to see, that is to say, a deflationary period where commodities lose, and equities at least maintain.
The charts seem to be indicating the same (IMO).
Economic fundamentals just might be indicating the same too.
The bottom line is that no-one has a crystal ball, and that dogmatic long term proclamations are always suspect to say the least. Don't trust anyone, bull or bear, who says than anything is a done deal until it is.
Trust the objective who give you both sides of the trade, who always remind you that anything can happen, and who recommend a balanced portfolio with your savings and only a small fraction to be used speculatively. And I think that is about the only thing that can be said dogmatically! ;-)
And how might this cycle be affected by: (1) the end of the world's reserve currency; (2) a complete and total lack of faith in the equities markets and the mechanisms of purchase and sale; (3) the end of american military hegemony; (4) peak oil; (5) a lack of increases in productivity for private businesses; and (6) a soft populace?
This time isn't different in many respects... but it IS different in some...
agree with you. I've trying to keep up with the news...digest what happens...think about possibilities....but in the end I am trying to stick to two things, 1. Ultimately the price says it all, I seriously cannot argue with anyone giving me stats about holding certain divie paying stocks over the long haul bla bla bla bla, but at the end of the day, the price should say what you are in or not in or short. 2. In the event of sustained deflation, price correction downwards, the money currently tied up will go somewhere............I just want to follow that big elephant around and trend trade the next thing whatever that is.
Good observation, although I suspect that the "commodities" line in the chart is a basket that includes industrial and consumer commodities (steel, coal, copper, orange juice etc).
IIRC, Gold and silver where of a fixed price vs. the dollar before Nixon in 1971 (they were money, by definition). Charted seperately from the other commodities, gold and silver would be a flatline or step function until then, but would track the market after that point.
It would be interesting to see that chart updated to include gold.
But but but...................you must add in the fact that two global CURRENCY'S are going to collapse this time. Thus the PM slant thing.
Itd be great to see the last 60 od years tacked on there!!
haha, just realised that this timeit is different, we broke the tie to gold so the inflationery theft cycle (the great moderation) hit biblical propotions.
Thanks Tyler.
Yes, Please Tylers...... get a chart hot dog to update thru current times !! This is a great visual.
That has an ominous ring to it. The chart range would have to be doubled or tripled or more to include the fraud driven "growth" since 1944.
Don't project the economic future of the U.S. based upon the past. For most of our history we were fairly self sufficient and insular. Today we're small-fry in the world and economic movements are increasingly dictated to us by the aggressive young economies. Take PMs for example. China and India determine the prices of the metals now. Not us. We're only 8% of the market. Look outward for rcpnimc fundamentals. Look inward to see why we're FUBARed.
"Take PM's for example. We are only 8% of the market".
I agree that China and India are in impactful on the PM price, I also believe that the derivative paper and margin reqirements are also a big impact on PM price.
Were not derivatives designed to manage the gold/dollar (dollar valuation) relationship?
Fun chart. Thanks, Tyler.
So 4-or-so years of a good ol' fashioned world war (we shouldn't have any trouble finding a worthy enemy to battle these days) and inflation (the time to sell your gold, oil, silver...) followed by 10-years-or-so of wonderful deflation and unsurpassed growth and prosperity, the time to accumulate wealth, eliminate debt (not generate more) and stock-up for the following depression.
GOT IT. I'M READY. LET'S DO THIS!!! WHO'S IN FOR A LITTLE WORLD WAR!!??
This has been an interesting chart and I want to do more homework on the boom/busts. In just the past hour I spent some time looking at the boom cycles and then what people credit the bust cycles on after. Typically it is a matter of too much candy being handed out and then being pulled away causing everyone to sugar crash.
The one thing that I find really fascinating about the chart is the growth in National income in relation to Federal Debt. Notice that the Income was growing dramatically while Fed Debt remained relatively flat. Suddenly (and coincidentally?) the Fed debt jumped in 1912 due to creation of Fed Reserve and WWI...what I find interesting is that once the Fed Debt genie was out of the bottle, it was never put back in. In fact it has done nothing but accelerate to higher levels.
The psychological shift of the country at that time would make a fascinating study. You have a population that never wanted anything from the government finding acceptance of a government that works toward the 'greater good'. And a government eager to accept this new role and exploiting it to its fullest.
agree with you about the psychological aspect of it, especially with more people involved in the market and things moving faster than ever. As for the FED, picked up The Creature from Jekyll Island after reading some comments here a few months ago.....highly recommend it. The etire set up is unreal, funny that none of that is ever taught in school.
Excellent chart! It's amusing that business cycle theory experiences a waxing and waning interest on the part of the investing public depending on what part of the business cycle we seem to be entering. There seems to always be more interest on the downside than the upside. I note that we seem to be entering a period of low business activity which is reflected in the following cycle charts.
http://econocasts.blogspot.com/
Sorry - double post due to an ISP hiccup.
Uh, it's ALWAYS different. I laugh at people that think Economics is a hard science. It's psychology with more math and better charts.
Here's my chart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOrD8eOdRxU
interesting perspective....where does the US stand in all that considering that all other empires were taken by force, and may be the strongest militarily that has no interest in colonization per se. Its been more sinister than that due to finance, the dollar and great marketing. The people of the middle east may see it as US oppression, but its really just Disney operating on their own behalf. Plus. everyone is from somewhere else, I love it when people talk about US Blood like it compares with 100's of years of Italian or Bosnian blood! So, the composition, interest, methods and reach are different from any other empire..........so if there is a 'downfall' it may be different as well. One alarming thing I recently read concerned England around 1900, they were borrowing heavily from the US and some very wise men in England were quoted as saying it was the beginning of the end for England....the rest of the world was growing and England was stuck making Accounting adjustments to their currency/debt arrangement. In this respect, I think its sick that the US stands to blow the biggest lead in the history of leads with their Dollar, innovative / flexible economy. Shame.
Awesome! I would really like to see an update to this.
it's missing the last and best part
"Run up to Golds peak in early 1980. Some newspaper articles to give you an idea of what it might look like to be in a Gold bubble plus some quick clips from Youtube Gold videos."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB10xud4tII
40 years of Government Evil!
Ignored! or given a Pass!
Fuck a March!
Fuck Protest!
Fuck Painting Posters!
These Evil Fuckers have been Killing Americans of how long?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw0D0yG3QmA
97th Anniversary of the Ludlow Colorado Massacre
Under the command of the Rockefeller family, the National Guard fires at strikers and their families to suppress a strike of twelve thousand workers
http://www.openfilm.com/videos/psywar <----- Thanks "CD"
http://metanoia-films.org/index.php <----- Thanks "CD"
You idiots better wake up!
You will be killed laying down or standing..
There can be NO! Peace!!
An Armed Nation of 300 million? 5 to 10 guns per person with 8 to 10 Billion Bullets a year being sold! going back for the last decade!!
They want Population control and they want us to kill each other!
Have you ever noticed how it is the Jews or Aztlan??? but NEVER!! The Fault of the Blue Bloods who really own everything???
The game has already been fought and won.. "We the People" lost.
Is that 3rd page written in invisible ink? I think I have an old decoder pen but I'll need the physical copy.
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Depression is no longer now and jobs are present in the job market. There was a tough time for the job seekers in the depression as they were suffering from the unemployment.