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Charting The WTF Economy
America's WTF (certainly not to be confused with Winning The Future) economy summarized in one easy chart.
Conclusion: go long the WTF economy by shorting BAC which is a proud sponsor (courtesy of not having received one cash payment for hundreds of billions in inversely overwater mortgages) of the WTF spread.
h/t John Lohman
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I had to read that one a few times before I could fully unwind it.
Somebody, get that guy a job writing FOMC statements.
I should use the chart as my new Avatar. Nothing better that that to illustrate Cognitive Dissonance.
The Mary Poppins Chart
Just a spoon full of QE makes the medicine go down in a most delightful way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrnoR9cBP3o
Superbenniprintthemfastandloadyourselfsometoner.
One hand cupping Lloyd's ballsack, the other Jamie's boner.
If you have some bad assets the Fed will gladly load them
Superbenniprintthemfastandloadyourselfsometoner!!!!!
Um diddle diddle, the world's gonna die! Um diddle diddle the world's gonna die!
Its Friday night and after a couple of glasses that made me chuckle....a lot. Thanks.
sheer insanity
>>"Speaking of confidence, Retail Sales, which we speculated last month will go higher this month based on M1 money supply of a whopping 12% YoY, went higher. But not by much - just 0.5% (with +/- 0.5%) on expectations of 0.3%, and that includes gasoline sales which were up 23.6%! Isn't it ironic that Wall Street's finest can't even get this number right, based on M1 money supply? Do they even know how to add and subtract basic math?
Further, as we explained last month, sales in price is not sales in units. So, once again, retail sales signal nothing good about the economy other than that we have inflationary pressures mounting. It doesn't take a poison Ivy League degree to read through the smoke. But the markets will rally on this and ignore the consumer confidence disaster - only to collapse shortly."<<
http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/08/free-fall-fryday-texas-university.html
They prettymuch NAIL THAT!!!
The sure evidence will be the continuing lack of diversity in sales across the consumer market as diminishing "discretionary" spending is shifted more and more to "essentials."
It's already here, wasn't WallyWorld just complaining that people are only buying food and essentials and none of their cheap Chinese crap anymore?
must buy iPad to distact me from my lack of consumer confidence
iPads taste like s**t...but with a lil Frank's hot sauce, DEE-LISHUS!
As long as you don't mean Barney Frank's hot sauce... ey oh
Channel stuffing?
Stuff just costs more
Are those retail sales adjusted for inflation?
I don't think so but even if they are the inflation calculations are garbage too so garbage adjusted by garbage = ...garbage.
now that's a chart...
That chart would make a great tee shirt
i sir...would buy that tee shirt...
I am buying one of these on a t-shirt instead - www.familyrotten.com
The consumer will buy to kill the pain and then drink down the default. Weeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
come, come now...surely it is not entirely de-fault of the consumer?
I agree the initial poor investment choices were not of the consumer. That would be blaming the victim of rape. Sooner or later though, the consumer can no longer be given a free pass while banking at JPM of BofA, continually racking up the credit card, and buying Apple products. Most of us here have pulled away from this system after we saw the system for what it is. Many have also been warned, yet the consumer keeps going back for another donkey punch.
Disney Store sales numbers are literally going through the roof in my area. Makes no fucking sense to me.
lol..."donkey punch"
So it's going well in the US. Dow 100 pt up, recession and all of those much predicted "collapses" and 'crashes" are over.
Retail sales are being boosted by the squaters living in REO properties. They have minimum wage jobs or government benefits with no visible job upside hence the lack of confidence.
Prognosis: Not good.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/194a83f8-c370-11e0-b163-00144feabdc0.html
Perhaps it's time for you to pull off your blinders...
yes, already wealthy people who benefitted from goosed equities via free bernank $$$ are still buying coh and tif. wtf is your point exactly?
Bingo...skip the mortgage payment and party like its 1999. When the survey guy calls, just say: "Yea, we know we're F*$&ed."
Some squaters yes. And some under-water McMansions not paying mortgage anymore.
But, whether retail sales have increased .3 or.4% isn't nearly as important as the fact that they haven't DECLINED (even with the above mentioned squaters and no-pay mortgages). To me, this is indicative of the fact that the American people are not much different than their government - spending money they don't have, living beyond their means. That shopping habit, and those smart phone, ipad, latest gadget, new car addictions are like crack! Hard to give up once you have them.
I would take this chart as particularly bad news for banks and credit card issuers... I smell a new wave of defaults and bankruptcies coming by year's end.
I suppose food and ammo count as retail sales.
I suppose food and ammo count as retail sales.
don't forget gold.
why the ZHers claiming to have bought PMs alone are enough to account for a big chunk of that rise.
don't forget gold.
or all the dollars spent outfitting for human habitation the recently purchased small farm.
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - August 12, 2011
here is the weekly round-up from goldSeek's chris mullen. he draws the line @ 4pm easterm, so the PM prices may not agree w/ some of the other feeds from later.
the $53 Bil on the June trade bal shld have a minus sign in front of it (-).
rest up, Bichez, & take care of the cranial tissues!
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 5% and 2% on the Week
I am sure O'robyomama signed off on this bullshit report before packing his bags for a 10 day vacation in Martha's Vinyard, that will no doubt eat up $100's of thousands in taxpayer money!
Hundreds of thousands? Seriously? Try millions.
Retail sales are in dollars. Consumer confidence is in votes.
That's why there's a discrepancy. As long as the rich are confident, the retail sales won't affect population-based polls.
This means run up the credit card, for tomorrow we lose our jobs.
We can all rest assured that some where the elite rich are profiting just fine.
Right, and in this USAA+ economic model, all that matters is a few elite are kept well stuffed with lobster thermadore and new Ferraris....everyone else can go suck it.
Try driving that Ferrari once it HTF...will give new meaning to beat down
Ferrari target practice, bitchez!
My retail purchases would be up also, if I stopped paying my mortgage.
You would have more money to spend, but knowing that you may be kicked out of your house at any moment is not a confidence booster.
"At any moment" is quite a stretch.
inflation spread
Holy cow. that makes no sense at all. none. Such a mirage, this whole engineered game.
to funny.
ORI
Reclaim your dominion, ya’ll. ;-)
“Because this system has stolen the wealth of the whole world.”
Santos Bonacci - Roman Ecclesiastical Law & Sovereignty
http://www.redicecreations.com/radio/2011/08/RIR-110811.php
Watch (5 parts, approx 15mins each)…
The Law- 1 Sovereigns_ time to stand up! Reclaim your rights – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PNkvWvv-Dew
The Law 2 Sovereigns_ time to stand up! Reclaim your rights – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ5F9YUTLRw&feature=related
The Law 3 Sovereigns_ time to stand up! Reclaim your rights – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6_bR-Uy6Eg&feature=related
The Law 4 Sovereigns_ time to stand up! Reclaim your rights – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emC3dvypHvU&feature=related
The Law 5 Sovereigns_ time to stand up! Reclaim your rights – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1Hhetuc-Bs&feature=related
Thanks!
;-)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
so far.. I did not get far into the 1st video.. but the couple of minutes I did watch looked very promising! so I say Thanks NOW! and Later!
Just be careful researching this.
Got into a bit of a row with one of my government "spy" contractor friends two nights ago on this very subject (recall screaming "I WILL NOT OBEY" as he squealed tires and drove away). HT/ Chumba
All my localized google ads flipped to Bolling Airforce Base and Langley, VA for a while. My friend assured me that as long as you don't keep going back to those sights multiple times, you won't become a serious target of interest.
He was totally baffled as to why I resented any government intrusion into my browsing habits.
"All my localized google ads flipped to Bolling Airforce Base and Langley, VA for a while."
very interesting...thanks for the tip
Hay Goldilocks have you become a Soverign I did no more taxes , actually owning your own property free and clear , but the best bit is the way the police treat you with this new found respect because you dont live in thier fantasy land anymore .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzWJ7_5wlZg
Plan coming together for algobot takeover. They now have consciousness, and we are all slaves to their free commerce purchasing devices (aka the US Dollar).
I heard on nites and weekends the Algobots are building T-1 terminators.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoVlcWvxffc&feature=feedf
Uploaded by bstill3 on Aug 12, 2011
Unveiling a new 6-Step pathway to free ourselves from the shackles of the national debt system.
Hope and some small change?
Is that real retail sales? If not then Chairsatan's "non-inflatory" policies might explain the huge difference. Not to mention Tiny Tim's strong dollar policy. Yes we can!
definitely a problem in the data but some portion of the effect is that people see the currency depreciating and buy certain foreign things now (wine, clothing, foodstuffs) before the prices go up.
D.E Shaw would be drooling at the potential of a spread closer trade on that chart .
Selling"hope" short and going long on "reality"
Ahhhhhh Consumer Confidence is a BS stat anyway. I think a lot of people simply treat any and all questions like this as an excuse to vote up/down on whatever their pet bellyache of the moment is.
If that's the case... It wasn't BS until recently as it correlated well with retail sales.
I'm going to go with something is very wrong with these numbers or in the economy.
Well if they want to live by the sword, they have to deal with it cutting both ways.
What are the symbols on these ETF's? Bueller? Anyone?
consumer spending is 70% of GDP
IN THEORY, if 99% of the people were broke and bought ramen noodles and netflix only but 1% lived high of the hog and bought jets and vacations to Hawaii, its possible that standard economic indicators would show 'growth' even while most people were contracting. In other words, GDP (and retail sales) are an aggregate indicator - I wonder what retail sales look like for bottom half of distribution in USA - not like the blue line above I assure you...
Blue line represents more inflation type buying going on. People are buying food, gas, etc and less extras. But retail sales go up due to inflation pricing.
How about an inflation adjusted retail sales report?
Yes everything from food, energy, health care, clothing, haircuts, having the roof fixed etc, all got price hikes. Stuff you can't go on without.
High-end retailers thrive despite US weakness
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/194a83f8-c370-11e0-b163-00144feabdc0.html
Wal mart by me is empty most of time, not that long ago it was full all the time.
I was at Lowes yesterday and it was virtually deserted . . . on Friday, mid-morning, when it's usually jammed with people preparing for those weekend projects. I've never seen that before.
PRETTY FUCKING GOOD QUESTION..
#
are an aggregate indicator - I wonder what retail sales look like for bottom half of distribution in USA - not like the blue line above I assure you...
##
luckuly we have an answer.. old good WALL-MART..
who is shopping where ? bottom of 50 %population..
i dont remember exact numbers, but same store sales in USA are falling down for a few years in row..
AND THATS IN NOMINAL $$$.. adjust by 3-5% inflation.+ "growth" in popualtion AKA number of people on food stamps
, so physical quantity is probably down 10-15 %from peak..
dont forget Wall-mart is 10% retail in USA (exlc cars), so its fucking pretty perfect proxy for retail sales..
( much better than bulslhit retail sales from truth ministry like BLS/BEA/NBER/etc)
hope it helps
alx
time to buy more Polo shirts made by Ralph Lifshitz
Is somene hiding their Jewish heritage to sell over priced sweat shop made clothing?
uh oh, someone just pulled a Helen Thomas
OMG! the World is coming to and end! BUY BUY BUY!
Actually there's a lot to that. ZH is one of history's great cntrary indicators. Just watch out for the occassional T Rex....and remember "it ain't no luck...i learned to duck" and you'll be fine.
That chart makes perfect sense to me actually. People are preparing for the collapse and possibly worse. Fortuna favet paratus! Spending your money while it is still worth something too is a good idea. Online PM purchases would be included in those sales, right? Ammunition and other supplies would be too as someone else already pointed out above.
I keep looking at this chart in amazement. I am speechless.
This is what happens when a 52" TV holds it's value over time better than treasury notes
Masochist Nation.
Way Too Fabulous?
Rich criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers buying shiny bobbles, bitchez!
baubles*, bitchez
Whenever they call asking if I want another credit card (nice to have the 800+ credit score as if that should mean anything at all in this economy) I always tell them "Yes, please. We're about to declare bankruptcy, so we would love another one of those credit cards. Please give me a high credit limit." For some reason I always here, "Click, bzzzzz..." on the other end.
Seriously, though, we have been stocking up on canned goods, beans, rice, long-dated fruit juices, etc. We'll use all that stuff and the price will be higher on all of it in just a few days.
I wonder if large PM purchases, Berkey equipment, gasoline stores, and ammo could change the consumer spending by that much. Always buy the silver on a JP Morgan credit card that has a "no interest for 15 months" clause on it.
<Always buy the silver on a JP Morgan credit card that has a "no interest for 15 months" clause on it. >
They STOPPED this program......................Smart lil ckskrs.
That chart is showing that people have to use their savings to pay for everyday essentials.
-or-
They have lost confidence in the dollar, and are spending it as soon as they get it.
-or-
Both.... Spending Under Duress
Holy gaping hole Batman! WTF!
US GDP% = Mortgage Jubilee / BAC
That's another source of this. When you're not paying your mortgage, you're still going to spend, spend, and spend some more. The cash has to go somewhere.
when you're down to your last 10 grand - it truly is a WTF situation as in WTF I need another flat panel and a new iPhone
Tyler,
I am glad that my assessment of the economy matches yours verbatim.
Never bet against the usa consumer. That is an decades old axiom. This isn't the first recession we've ever had. Throw in easy credit cards, free houses, funemployment, social security. This shouldn't come as a surprise the trade deficit numbers were posted here yesterday.
Recession? This is a planned implosion.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0PuqYB0_UI
People are smart.
buzzsaw@16:20,
"People are smart."
When folks see their being gamed, they game the system.
That's where we are today, if the 99er's bennies had run out in the normal time frames, we would have a totally new Gov't in D.C.......the last election would have been a major house cleaning.
The only reason the bennies have been extended to these folks is not out of compassion,it is to keep them under control, and converting them to a WHY work mindset as long as I can GET BY.
This kills the entreprenuerial spirit,and kills the spirit.
I just went through and replotted the data. When you don't use a secondary axis for Consumer Confidence it becomes less skewed looking.
don't forget the SNAP effect - i wonder if that chart correlates
http://dailybail.com/storage/chart-food-stamps-2.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHE...
Excluding gas, total retail sales rose 0.3%.
Sales fell at department stores, bars and restaurants, leisure and hobby stores and building-materials suppliers.
Job growth stalls as new businesses fail to launch
Videogame sales for July lowest since ’06 – Sales fall 26% with Software
Inflation?
INFLATION
- Food More expensive
- Oil More expensive
- Dollar and Euro value down making everything more expensive
DEFLATION
- Houseprices decline
- Salaries decline
- Money supply sucked dry by the shadow banking system/ Deleveraging
I say STAGFLATION http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation – In economics, stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high and the economic growth rate is low. It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may worsen economic growth and vice versa.
"Biflation" bitchez!
since fuk_u went full 4-banger, i've been in radioactive stag/biflation, which = BiChflation
soon, we shall all be in a radioactive recession = isotopal downer
BiCheZ
Inflation - Things needed to live on a day-today basis (food, energy, etc.).
Deflation - Things already owned and things for which loans/credit are needed to purchase, and also on things that are more discretionary (electronics as one example).
A chart from CR showing the dollar values:
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Retail#category=Retail&chart=RetailS...
That is HIGH QUALITY! UN-CUT!! stuff you are passing around to "We the People"! You may want to cut it! someone may overdose!
The first line is Free Ya'll!!
Thank Buzzy! You Rock! as Always!
Thanks for posting the link. Great info!
Duh. The retail sales figure is weighted toward the high-end buyers: big screen TVs, yachts, private jets, etc. and the consumer sentiment cuts across incomes.
It's been quite a week. I think I'll go back to the ZH home page, click on the ad near the top right, and schedule a weekend getaway.
Those also aren't same store sales. They are adding sales from new stores in. That plus inflation = total BS numbers
alls not to worry, confidence will be revised nest week.
Seems America is indeed, cuckoo for cocoa puffs.
I gots one fer y'all: Disposable personal income per capita. From Doug Short's site. Still not at pre-crisis levels.
In your mind you can chart the difference between actual disposable income per capita, and what it could have been without the treasonous bailouts and horrific Japanification policies of our Dear Leaders.
THAT would look a lot like the consumer confidence chart. As in, cratering.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/DPI-overview...
Trying to find where it was I read this morning that 65% of americans right now could not put their hands on $1,000 for some unseen emergency or expense....
Some news program broadcast it last night also.
64% of Americans Can’t Handle a $1,000 Emergency Expense
AH thanks a lot Truth!
+
That's really dangerous if true.
The US electorate is lied to and disconnected. People won't pitch a fuss anymore over things like political posturing and feckless leadership. It's now accepted as BAU. They hate it but can't change it. So long as they can feed themselves they will accept being powerless and marginalized so long as the corrupt State supports them in their infantile need.
But if they run out of money for food and energy -- even for a little while -- they will likely go apeshit and very quickly.
One really bad quarter of high unemployment and budget austerity could mean that the 65% that couldn't raise $1000, suddenly can't raise $1.
And that's when it really becomes iinteresting, and there are troops in the streets.
Yup. I was reading an article yesterday about people who are trying to survive on SNAP only, no other income. Also, search, "East St. Louis". I know people always cringe about Detroit, but ESL, I think, is way worse. I would bet that they are the first to explode like London. They were calling for the Feds to go in to fight crime there, the police are overwhelmed. ESL has been bad for DECADES, not just this last "soft patch".
good luck with that gold bubble if that's the case
consume damn you! consume!
Winning the future is mostly about ES and stuff. As far as the real economy, no much can be said.
Could also be people are spending, but not on frivolous junk. Maybe theyre out maxing credit cards on food, ammo, and guns!
Ben Bernank's Bullion, Bullets & Beans effect, bitchez.
Guns and ammo qualify as frivolous junk. I went to a gun show recently and priced a pistol I bought in 1977 (Colt Python 6 inch barrel blue) and it was seling lightly used in 2011 for what I paid in 1977. Not a good investment. Also if you know anything about guns that is a very good revolver. Possibly one of the best ever made.
Nice. I've always had a hankering for a 4" Python. Just can't seem to justify spending $1k though. Settled on a vintage 4" recessed and pinned S&W Highway Patrol for less than half the price instead. Then spent my savings on a pre-lock ss .357 S&W bodyguard and still had some change for lighter return springs for both. =] The old N frame Smith's are Smoooooth.
WTF=Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot sticks by me.
I've been playing this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4 (Turning Japanese) in an endless loop today.
After seeing the current suite of Presidential candidates and the ridiculous rules coming from Washington, I'm convinced that we will have foisted failed politicians and policies for at least the next decade oh and let's not forget the Feds promised ZIRP till forever and ever.
WTF FTW.
I feel really really terrible.
I knew all along that the consumer was totally lying out of his ass about his confidence.
I feel dreadful for all that wrongly acussing I did of Intel, Apple, Verizon, AT&T, Orange Telecom, etc etc.
I'm dreadfully sorry for calling you big fat stinking making shit up liars. I don't know how I can ever make it up to you. I have wronged you at a level that is beyond forgiveness.
So in closing. Suck rocks you pig fuckers.
PS. blah blah blah broke sales records. Avatar made a 200 billion dollars. Blah blah blah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vgQalXaIxs
Well, after spending a week in NYC, i can confirm that dopes are still lining up (yes at the 5th ave store there are line ups) with their pre teen daughters @ANF to get their pics taken with hairless males models, and buy $70 t-shirts.
Hope you have a nice comment ready for when they come looking for an answer as to why that all went away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxUATkpMQ8A
Pefect encouragement. Perfect discouragement. No other route to equality.
I wouldn't get too distracted by what you see in New York, which is a tourist destination, and also contains the bail out queens of Wall Street, and I certainly wouldn't use it as empirical example of the health of the consumer on a national basis.
I'm not saying that you are doing this, and based on your past posts, doubt that you intend to do so.
I was talking to a friend in Florida recently, which is being hammered, with many big box retailers ceasing construction of stores they've already spent millions on (site work, infrastructure, engineering - all done) and which has a foreclosure epidemic the banks literally can't keep up with, and he was telling me that DisneyLand was packed, but that there were more Europeans and Canadians there than he's ever seen in his life there (that exchange rate thing certainly doesn't hurt).
Agree w/first part of your post. I recently re-located to the midwest from DC and the living conditions could not be more different (as you can imagine). Whereas mega-condos are popping up everywhere in DC folks in the midwest are maxing out the life of their US made shitmobiles - I can't blame midwesterners for maintaining faith in the US.....but listening to people hype the DC "boom" makes me want to rage.
I hear you loud and clear on that D.C. thing, where government workers really do make 80k to 180k in droves, at jobs that comparable private sector employers would pay about 50% less for (and demand higher qualifications for), and where the bennies would be way less, if the jobs were even available.
I believe there are 4 million federal workers, which does not include all the contractors (probably 18 million) whose jobs depend on direct federal spending, let alone the 27 million who work for state, county and local units of government.
This shit's about to break. I can feel it when I talk to people who have rage in their voice and that 1000 yard glare in their eyes.
50% unemployment in D.C ages 16-19.
DC still majority black. Have those people ever worked?
What's your excuse?
A finite number of drive-by shootings might help.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYlfQ-7zUUE
Love ya, Trav and Dabolina.
social philosophy looks to be, get all you can - can all you get - and sit on your can
I'm confident in silver :) Come on QE3 so I can get rich off of silver already!
PM's aren't really an investment. they are more like insurance.
Aren't comments like these implying that silver is a speculative metal? If your silver goes from $40/oz to $500/oz and it's not speculation - then your dollars are just worth less.
In other words, your $500 worth of silver is still going to get you $40 worth of actual goods. I don't get why so many people are praying for the crash so they can "get rich".
If prices suddenly collapse that also makes your PM's very valuable. That's called "the old fashioned way."