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Charting The WTF Economy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

America's WTF (certainly not to be confused with Winning The Future) economy summarized in one easy chart.

Conclusion: go long the WTF economy by shorting BAC which is a proud sponsor (courtesy of not having received one cash payment for hundreds of billions in inversely overwater mortgages) of the WTF spread.

h/t John Lohman

 

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Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:43 | 1555290 chump666
chump666's picture

from over sold to overbought in a matter of days. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:46 | 1555303 Irish66
Irish66's picture

CDS on BAC?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:52 | 1555326 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

If you think we've seen volatility this last week, one of the most amusing movie scenes of all times http://youtu.be/TSZKDkLgzhk plus some really good shots of the WTC before it was brought down.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:55 | 1555335 Irish66
Irish66's picture

I doubled down on the SKF for the weekend!

Cheers.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:52 | 1555325 adr
adr's picture

I always put it this way:

You used to have $10 but becuase of the crappy economy you lost $8 or 80% of your wealth. You spent $1 on the things you needed and saved your last dollar. All of a sudden the next month you found $1 on the street. You just got a 100% increase in income and since you still had $1 saved you decided to spend that dollar you found. That expenditure raised your portion of consumer spending by 100%, wholly cow!!!

However it doesn't make up for the fact that you are poorer by 80% than you were just a short time ago even if by a manipulation of statistics you were actually richer when you had $2 in your pocket becuase prior to that you never doubled your money at one time in your life.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:53 | 1555329 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

France's economy shudders to a halt amid fresh fears of new global recession

By Damien Gayle

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:55 | 1555333 jsmfr
jsmfr's picture

Why don't all of you who are racist, anti-semitic, homophobic trolls take your comments elsewhere and leave this site to economic and financial commentary?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:59 | 1555351 jomama
jomama's picture

there will always be douchebags.

usually they fade into the background here, as that moronic drivel isn't exactly thought provoking anyway. 

just don't pay them any mind.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:14 | 1556247 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/193528.html

 

Amidst a financial and economic crisis, Congress has reached its summer recess and many representatives are going to Israel.

 

Altogether, 81 Congressmen and women have announced their one-week trips, paid for by the American Israel Education Fund, a non-profit affiliate of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

 

http://www.opensecrets.org/usearch/index.php?q=israel&cx=010677907462955562473%3Anlldkv0jvam&cof=FORID%3A11&searchButt.x=0&searchButt.y=0#1650

http://www.opensecrets.org/usearch/index.php?q=jewish&sa=Search&cx=010677907462955562473%3Anlldkv0jvam&cof=FORID%3A11#1650

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:08 | 1557018 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

We have 100 senators and 435 members of the House for a total of 535. As of today the following statistic is applicable: 29 spousal abuses, 7 frauds, 19 passing bad cheques, 117 bankruptcies (considering they get over $150K that is truly amazing), 3 assaults, 71 insufficient credit to get a credit card, 14 for illicit drug use, 8 for shoplifting, 21 currently in litigation, 84 for drunk driving. This works out to 374 out of 535 legislatorsthat are crooks, which leaves 164 that could be clean. What a state of affairs. And they have an 87% re-election rate to boot!

We pay congressmen $174,000 per year. Then we give them an employee allowance of $900,000. Then we give them $250,000 for office expenses (we provide the office space). The average legislator costs the taxpayers $3.3 million a year. Can you imagine receiving that sort of income and then not being able to get a credit card due to bad debt? Oh, I almost forgot the "Franking Privilege" and the healthcare that costs only $300 per month for a full family, children to age 25, and the pension, well… you get the picture, I'm sure.

http://www.thedailybell.com/2790/Adrian-Krieg-The-Dirt

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 17:39 | 1555693 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Since the real wealth is being stolen from us by banksters (jews), it becomes naturally related.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:53 | 1556089 trav7777
trav7777's picture

somewhere there is a bell ringing; shouldn't you be salivating?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:56 | 1555343 The Real McCoy
The Real McCoy's picture

The high sales is accounted for by people buying iphones...   doesn't matter what the economy's like, if you have to sell a kidney to get one, so be it!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:07 | 1555345 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

- Bad Post -

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:01 | 1555364 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

You can make me read, but you can't make me understand.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:07 | 1555385 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

I shorting at the death cross, bitchez.

Damn-it, I'm doing the "bitchez" thing now, and poorly I might add.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:12 | 1555401 caerus
caerus's picture

southern cross bitchez... southern cross

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:11 | 1555397 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Don't think we are there yet, but I expect that to get wackier.  Waiting for the inevitable crack up boom, which will be heralded as a full recovery of course.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:12 | 1555402 tbone654
tbone654's picture

Those of us who have already gone "BUSTED" !!! are advising those that come after to:

1.) pay your taxes

2.) stop all payments (cars, houses, bass boats, etc.) or convert your debt stuff to cash.

3.) use your cash (saved from not making payments) to buy comfort STUFF

4.) File bankruptcy at the exact moment you have too...

4a) Get food stamps, rent assistance & insurance from the state...

5.) Live comfortably off the STATE and STUFF.

Your going to do it anyway... so just "let it go"...

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1555420 Russiamerica
Russiamerica's picture

Looks to me like the people preparing for a large storm, or going all in before the anticipated hard times.

Maybe Johhny Q public is unconcious competant they are getting ready because something in there bones is saying brace yourself.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1555421 ivana
ivana's picture

From Jim Willie on UST bond "demand":

Do not be fooled by the knee-jerk pied piper response to flee the frying pan and find the fire, as investors moved from stocks to USTBonds. They are sheeple in boats led by a powerful application of leverage by siren calls to the rocks ashore. Last week, it was mentioned the gigantic $9.1 trillion additional Morgan Stanley application of Interest Rate Swaps. They exploit the artificially low short-term USTBill yields and create phony demand in long-term USTreasurys like the 10-year and 30-year maturities. The demand is artificial but felt with impact in a TNX approaching the magic 2.0%. When it reaches the milestone, shrill calls will come of an asset bubble. The investor community incorrectly believes that actual money is flowing into USTBonds as safe haven. They are fooled by the powerful Interest Rate Swaps applied by the big US banks, the agents of the Syndicate. The only massive asset bubble in existence is the USTreasury Bond.

9,1 trillion ????????????? How amazingly yields dropped to record lows just after debt ceiling was raised and new bonds issued ...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:24 | 1555441 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wow! You just opened my eyes to a whole new world and perspective. If you happen to see this reply, could you advise me how to become more informed on that subject? Thanks!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1555422 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Consumer confidence is quite the leading indicator!

What would we do without Zero Hedge? I shudder to think! Thank you, Tyler, for ALL the insights!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1555423 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoVlcWvxffc&feature=feedf

Uploaded by bstill3 on Aug 12, 2011

Unveiling a new 6-Step pathway to free ourselves from the shackles of the national debt system.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1555424 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I know lots of guys here in L.A who haven't made a mortgage payment in 3 years, are on some type of disability and/or food stamp scam, work for cash under the table doing contruction-related work who now have more discretionary income than ever.

These are the guys I see at the MX track with the lifted trucks, brand new wheels and tires from "Rent-A-Wheel", and they buy the newest bike each year.

We call them "Flatbillers" because they saunter around with their flatbill caps, jeans hanging off their asses, heavy keychains, and they spend a fortune at the tattoo parlors....

LOL.....

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:54 | 1555568 BlackSea
BlackSea's picture

And you would hang out with them because...?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:42 | 1555839 jomama
jomama's picture

don't need to hang out with them.  they are everywhere with their 4x4 monster trucks without a speck of dirt on them. their girlfriends have feathered hair, uggs, and trying really hard to look like britney.  there's a reason i avoid socal like the plague.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:18 | 1556005 delacroix
delacroix's picture

nothing makes a bitch look warm and fuzzy, like a pair of uggs

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:17 | 1556357 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Ahhh, taxpayers. How else would we have it?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:23 | 1555436 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Let's think about this. When consumer confidence craters and people think that the economy and the markets are awful and going to get much worse...yet retail figures are skyrocketing upwards.

WHAT ARE THEY BUYING.

Here's a clue. In the UK sales of batons and baseball bats are at an all time high.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:05 | 1556113 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

What they are not buying is new cars. One must have a job to get financing for a new auto unless one doesn't mind driving a GM product. :shudders:

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:25 | 1555446 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...who let the Great Wal Mart of China Dragon slither on to the chart?

Look at the size of those jaws. That thing could devour anything it wants. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoIazR3bj0c&feature=related

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1555450 caerus
caerus's picture

off topic...maybe tie it into medicare or something... neil young - old man

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:59 | 1555882 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Good song!                   Tuco

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:18 | 1556359 caerus
caerus's picture

right?! i love neil young...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:51 | 1556423 caerus
caerus's picture

this guy's the best though...townes wiki aint so right

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:29 | 1555462 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

That's definitely a sobering chart.  For me though it's information in isolation.  Using the same metrics have we ever had such a divergence before?  If so, what was the climate then?  Anyone know a good place to find charts like this?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:38 | 1555498 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

that retail line is so high because all the squatters have been using money that should have gone to their mortgage to buy useless shit they don't need

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:06 | 1556116 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:41 | 1555514 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Notice FORECLOSURES ARE ***DOWN***?

That's $50 Billion annually SPENT with FREE-RENT.

That's been the plan all along.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:43 | 1555520 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Baby needs new shoes

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:51 | 1555554 Lazane
Lazane's picture

Maybe not so much a chart that lies, as it is a chart that reflects American retail sales for goods and services they need, as opposed to goods and services that they want. Needs based increases coupled with depressed consumer confidence signals an economy that could be teetering on the brink of misery for all.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 17:11 | 1555630 tim73
tim73's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fqpp-IAXF0

Ja! Wir Haben ein PLAN! :)

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 17:20 | 1555650 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I was considering rather or not to drink this evening.  After 15 minutes on ZH I threw ice on a 20pack and a pint of MadDog20/20 on my 4 wheeler.  Strapped on my chair and my gun and will be heading for the high hills for a full moon night.  It won't be the first time i've woke up on top that hill the next day.

A few hours from now just about everything I think about will be WTF.

Yep, $40hr a few years ago to nothing now, can't find a job but going back to school this coming monday.  I'm not real excited about it, if the economy goes where I think it's going it won't fucking matter. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 17:56 | 1555739 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Enjoy your night bro.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:18 | 1555787 caerus
caerus's picture

hang in there man...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:56 | 1555876 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Cheers!                     Tuco

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:57 | 1555880 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Howl at that bitch like the mad dog you are .

 

wasteland........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbuAiz-s8Ic

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:04 | 1555985 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Take care, and keep your powder dry.

Things will get better- not because of hopium, but because we will make it.  Since you've got a little time for now, while others are riding the back of the worm of hyperinflation, be our voice and spread the word.

It never had to go this way, and when the time is right, we will take it all back- maybe with a little usury of our own.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:36 | 1556041 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Come back rested and safe!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:03 | 1557114 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Check for ticks when you get back...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 17:47 | 1555716 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

People are medicating themselves by shopping, probably most of it on credit.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:02 | 1555979 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Not me- I prefer more old-timey methods, like vodka.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:03 | 1555754 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Actually, the chart makes perfect sense. Once consumers realize any money they have will be worth nothing in a few years (regardless of  how they invest), they spend every dollar they can get their hands on now, especially if they can borrow it from someone at a low fixed rate.

  

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:55 | 1555871 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, it is called "The Crack up Boom", but we are not there yet.      Tuco

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:22 | 1555799 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Now we know why they've been conducting 10 years of 'live ammo' troop training in Iwreck and Ifuckyoustan. They'll need all those boots on the streets of US cities once people finally figure out who stole their future and the riots begin.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:33 | 1555821 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

That's certainly one reason.

And all that oil is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:34 | 1556035 au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

Some of those boots are back here. And they don't like what they see happening to their country or their job prospects. Most do remember the oath to the constitution they took. One can only hope they are "Oathkeepers".

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 10:33 | 1556981 11b40
11b40's picture

Agree...most vets are patriots, not really mercenaries willing to turn on fellow countrymen.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:30 | 1557333 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

they're volunteers & I reckon they'll continue to kill whatever their paymasters convince them needs killin'

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:16 | 1557423 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Cathartes,

Not all soldiers are bad people. I understand that the whole mercenary thing sucks, when they are left on their own, away from other socializing forces, they can get really screwed up; but please do not paint them all with a broad brush. This is its own form of bigotry.

The protective instinct is not evil, this is another way to keep us at each others' throats. The soldiers and cops are the people too. Hate them and they will forget they are us.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 19:47 | 1557755 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I realise you have a different perspective MsCreant, perhaps based on your partner being ex-military, and yes, I do understand that not every soldier is "bad" etc.   But we've not had a draft since Viet Nam, and I think it's important to realise that anyone wearing a uniform & a gun/weapon is doing it by choice, ie voluntary - whether it's "law enforcement" or "military."

Believe it or not, I've had conversations with local guys who've done tours, most of them under 30, and the majority think it's cool to get to use a weapon, wear a uniform, & get paid for it.  When asked if they'd shoot a "neighbour" their face flinches a bit, and you can see it's not an easy call, but if pressed they all admit they'd shoot whoever they were ordered to, especially if that person was "bad."  There are "acts" in place that will tag neighbours with the "terrrrrrrrorist" label, and with a "war on terror" that's been going for most of these kids memories, I have no illusions.

Again, with a husband & teen son, it may be harder for you to stomach - I don't think 100% of armed authority will act on amrkns, but sending groups of enforcers to different regions of this rather large, divided country - and trading troops with Canada, as provisions are already in place for - will result in the desired fear and chaos.  The military is fond of their "we break the man & rebuild him" stories, and with the HUGE increase of anti-depressants & other pharma fed to soldiers, and unprecedented suicides monthly, this isn't the military of old.

Not sure what you might mean by "the protective instinct is not evil" - of course it's not, and I'm fully behind protecting all those I care for / about, hence my staying alert & not pretending the coming months will be easy.  And I don't "hate" people who chose to fight the corporate military wars - but I am wary of their thinking.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 20:33 | 1557885 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

My husband went in because he had 2 babies and couldn't get a job. He didn't want food stamps or unemployment. His father was an officer in WW2, was in the battle of the Bulge. My hubby had fun shooting stuff, you are right about that. Got to blow up a tank (no one was in it). He got out after seven years because he finally found his calling. Today he is a psychologist thanks to the GI Bill.

So many of my students have been pulled from my classes because they have been "deployed" over the years. They have to drop in the middle of the semester. Just young people who are trying to support their families. They are so scared before they go, typically. I also get the ones who come back after having done terrible things. They are just kids (beautiful kids), they cry in my office, they are trying to adjust.

I think you make excellent points, but voluntary sometimes is about the economic options they see themselves as having (or not). I KNOW they are free to make this choice, but some of them are doing it so as not to be on the "dole." We may see different folks and that is why we have the perspectives we do.

All wars are corporate military wars, aren't they? ;-)

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 22:52 | 1558193 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

The personal stories you are relating here are not surprising or new to me, it's a slice of "americana" that most people can empathise with, including myself.

You make the point of family history repeating (husband / his father), and economic stress combined with children / family to support at an early adult age, and how "serving" can result in getting one's higher education funded.  All perfectly acceptable paths, still being chosen today.  As a professor, in a dual-professional income family, you most likely consider yourself "middle class" - and the "beautiful kids" you see in your office are no doubt going to school hoping to achieve what you model.  A well-paying job with good health care benefits, etc.

Believe it or not, I care about those "beautiful kids" too - I listen to them as they talk of what the culture has told them are their (limited) options to choose from in life, and, over time, I try to offer them wider perspectives, options they hadn't considered or weren't even aware of.  I wish someone would have taken the time to have those conversations with me when I was in my late teens, having run away from poverty & strict religious family drama.  No regrets tho' - for whatever reasons, the cultural soup turned out to not be my flavour, particularly the pervasive gender roleplaying that folk think is "normal" - "men are more logical, women are more emotional, men like to fix things, women like to bake 'n' hug, men go to war, women make babies" blahblahblah.  And this is quite important to question as early on as you can - because if you want to be truly free, you need to question ALL the non-sense the culture expects you to perform in order to "fit in" or "be productive" or "good examples" for the kids, etc.

If I had been a mother of a son during the Viet Nam war, I would have packed him off to Canada.  I would have been fiercely opposed to any young men going to kill in a country most weren't even aware of.  Now that some are waking up to how / why this nationstate exists, for what purpose, and what is done globally in the name of this nationstate, I want to continue to push people out of the habitual fog we all grew up in.  And that won't happen if we continue to "salute the flag" and lie that going to war is "service" to our "freedoms" or whatever nonsense is still being said. That story needs to be outed as the lie it is, as much of a lie as the Fed, & "the stock market" etc.

 I want to STOP the "beautiful kids" from even considering losing their sanity, or lives, for a corporate killing machine.  Those kids committing suicide every month have seen things that they can't accept or fit into their mind, so they surrender their being - I'd like to tell them there ARE alternatives in life to doing what everyone else does.

And yes, all wars are corporate military wars, on behalf of nationstates that grind beauty up and spit it out. 

Peace.

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:40 | 1555835 daz
daz's picture

like....  buy now quickly before hyperinflation !

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:42 | 1555841 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

If this continues...

According to Bloomberg, the biggest one-week plunge in stocks since 2008 followed by the downgrade of the country's top credit rating may even be unnerving those who are fully employed and earning more than $100,000 a year. The S&P 500's 7.2 percent slump last week was the biggest since November 2008, which may explain why sentiment decreased among those with the highest incomes. The report stated that weekly changes in the overall comfort gauge have moved in the same direction as the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 80 percent of the time since the measure's inception in 1985.


The gauge of Americans' views of the economy, which is the difference between those with positive versus negative opinions, was minus 85.2 after minus 86.5 the previous week. Some 52 percent of respondents said the economy is in poor shape, the largest share in 16 months.

turn out the lights.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:49 | 1555851 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Right. And all of this comes as a complete "surprise" to the economic rocket scientists, politicians and the rest of them. In the end, all they thought they needed was the swagger. The bluster. And a simple blast of turbo-printing and all would be right with the world. 

In the end, the hubris did them in. They drank their own KoolAid. They started to talk to the unicorns and the unicorns were talking back. Ugly reality is only just beginning to glimmer. Just wait

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:51 | 1555860 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I take all data put out by our beloved government with a grain of salt!  I mean a BIG grain of salt.  The Rock of Gibrlatar comes to mind!              Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

 

P. S.  As others on ZH have noted, Monday is the 40th anniversary of U. S. Federal Reserve Note

         acquiring fiat status.  Monday "could" be a very interesting day!?   We all know how these

         demons are enthralled with dates.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:56 | 1555875 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There's only 2 kinds of people in this world: those who receive the governemnt bulsshit and those who dish it out

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:02 | 1555888 Mises
Mises's picture

Does this chart remind anyone of anything?

http://cfecon.blogspot.com/2009/08/great-depression-chart.html

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:04 | 1555889 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

American consumers are already moving on, turning their backs on the self-defeating "aspirational" attitudes of yesterday's 'print-n-shop economy', aka suspending the disbelief that you're rich if you buy something with a label that says "polo" or "colours". 

The big surprise of the post crisis world: Turns out you didn't need a quarter of all that crap you used to buy after all. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 00:16 | 1556462 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
by Caviar Emptor
on Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:04
#1555889

 

American consumers are already moving on, turning their backs on the self-defeating "aspirational" attitudes of yesterday's 'print-n-shop economy', aka suspending the disbelief that you're rich if you buy something with a label that says "polo" or "colours". 

The big surprise of the post crisis world: Turns out you didn't need a quarter of all that crap you used to buy after all.

 

Yes.

This nails it.

I have no doubt from the data or anecdote that the overwhelming majority of Americans are absolutely pulling way back on the non-discretionary expenses, and many of them are realizing that they're not less happy, if at all, for it.

I do believe wealth has been concentrated at the highest level since the early 1900s, also, however, and that those who are thriving now, which we can fairly call the top 2% or so, feel as if they've won, as they think that if their fortunes grew during such a pivot point, they must be doing everything right, and so they are consuming the finer things.

But for the vast, overwhelming majority, they're cutting out much non-discretionary expenses, and the middle class and working poor are reducing consumption of what are relatively inelastic goods and services (gasoling and doctors' visits, for two examples).

This plays into your bi-flation theme.

The more Bernank ramps the biflation  the more people cut back on consumption, hence the liquidity trap/pushing on a string effect.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:19 | 1555909 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Everybody I work with stopped contributing to 401Ks and IRAs a while ago, most seem to spend everything as quick as they can as inflation makes saving insane.

I think of them as sheeple but they are being forced into what they are doing at this point. I know they are listening to Ron Paul by now, or at least more receptive.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:33 | 1555929 N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

http://www.breitbart.tv/greatest-al-sharpton-clip-ever/

See the WTF media of today, this will make you fall off your chair.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:58 | 1555970 hunglow
hunglow's picture

I want a lap dance

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 19:58 | 1555971 Racer
Racer's picture

Are those retail sales taking into account soaring inflation in all needy to live things?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:04 | 1555984 Wags
Wags's picture

We are in for one hell of a crash when the printing presses wear out. And they will!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:07 | 1555988 Sid Non-Vicious...
Sid Non-Vicious LeRoux's picture

Its clear the dollar collapse is well underway. We will have mass rioting soon. Fortunately, we ancaps are prepared and heavily armed.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:30 | 1556172 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

So what you're really saying,the bottom line, is you really are Sid Vicious.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:29 | 1556020 Slow-choke-off
Slow-choke-off's picture

The Lords Prayer presented in english for everyone to hear.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqgDzEqdvb0&feature=player_embedded

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:29 | 1557334 snowball777
snowball777's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4nSxArk9g8

A little early for Turkey Day, but here's another prayer for ya.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:33 | 1556033 Element
Element's picture

I trust confidence surveys considerably less than official stats ... frankly, I can't even see the point of a confidence survey ... any business man looks out the window at the traffic level and listens to the number of phone calls coming in, and checks the monthly accts find out how people are really feeling and acting.

These surveys seem to just be an adjunct to the propaganda ministry.

Gotta say, US retail looks like, "eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we ...".

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:38 | 1556046 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The only way things will look up is when we hit rock bottom; a wish for a return to yesterday is a cruel joke, we are about to enter the twilight zone - there is no return ticket to yesterday...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:54 | 1556204 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Stiff upper lip, Fix It Again Timmy.

Bountiful Ben bought us 2 1/2 wonderful years that looked just like all the other years before them. Let's be thankful for them.

Sure they're over now and it is almost time to celebrate La Dia de la Mueteros.

Isn't there somebody you want to say good-bye to?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:42 | 1556053 mrmortgage
mrmortgage's picture

You will continue to see retail sales increase. You must remember the huge inequality gap in the US. The wealthy and high earners can keep spending baring a 20-30% drop in markets which would cause them to pause for a bit like 2008. 

I encourage you to enlighten yourself on the great class warfare going on. The rich vs everyone else via this piece by Nobel Prize Winner Joseph Stiglitz

http://www.vanityfair.com/society/features/2011/05/top-one-percent-201105

As always, compete, win and prosper. 

 

God speed.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 00:26 | 1556474 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You're naive to the extreme if you think even rampant conspicuous consumption by the top 1% or even 5% has a shot at saving the economy.

The only way that the economy gets saved if money gets into the pockets of the meaty center that is the middle class. These people are the ones who go out and buy cars, dishwashers, clothing, and put a sunroom on or remodel the kitchen when they get the opportunity, and those purchases drive the economic cycle of small business.

In fact, more money flowing to the top 1% or even top 5% is likely to get socked away into bank accounts, money markets or investments, rather than being used to purchase much of anything, as these people have most of what they need/desire already, and they also haven't delayed purchases, repairs or other things out of hardship or lack of funds/credit.

The only way the U.S. economy expands in any meaningful way is if the now firmly entrenched trend of middle class shrinkage and income contraction gets reversed.

I, unfortunately, don't think the prognosis of that happening are very good.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:45 | 1556062 Slow-choke-off
Slow-choke-off's picture

I'll post it again, The Lords Prayer in English for everyone to hear

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqgDzEqdvb0&feature=player_embedded

Wreck of the Medusa

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:12 | 1556227 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

It's the 'Raft of the Medusa', but I'm giving you +5

for bringing that great imagery to this mediocre blog.

The quality and message of your video, otoh, brings you back to zero.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:19 | 1556255 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you are a new name.. so people will not know you are ok! and I know you are smart enough to get what I am saying..

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

JW Approved!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 20:55 | 1556097 Kynortas
Kynortas's picture

To celebrate my arrival on ZH. Bought 5kg Silver and 10oz Gold

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:20 | 1556260 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

welcome! congrats!!

now unplug and realize the facts!

 

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/193528.html

 

Amidst a financial and economic crisis, Congress has reached its summer recess and many representatives are going to Israel.

 

Altogether, 81 Congressmen and women have announced their one-week trips, paid for by the American Israel Education Fund, a non-profit affiliate of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

 

http://www.opensecrets.org/usearch/index.php?q=israel&cx=010677907462955562473%3Anlldkv0jvam&cof=FORID%3A11&searchButt.x=0&searchButt.y=0#1650

http://www.opensecrets.org/usearch/index.php?q=jewish&sa=Search&cx=010677907462955562473%3Anlldkv0jvam&cof=FORID%3A11#1650

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:12 | 1557023 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

We have 100 senators and 435 members of the House for a total of 535. As of today the following statistic is applicable: 29 spousal abuses, 7 frauds, 19 passing bad cheques, 117 bankruptcies (considering they get over $150K that is truly amazing), 3 assaults, 71 insufficient credit to get a credit card, 14 for illicit drug use, 8 for shoplifting, 21 currently in litigation, 84 for drunk driving. This works out to 374 out of 535 legislatorsthat are crooks, which leaves 164 that could be clean. What a state of affairs. And they have an 87% re-election rate to boot!

We pay congressmen $174,000 per year. Then we give them an employee allowance of $900,000. Then we give them $250,000 for office expenses (we provide the office space). The average legislator costs the taxpayers $3.3 million a year. Can you imagine receiving that sort of income and then not being able to get a credit card due to bad debt? Oh, I almost forgot the "Franking Privilege" and the healthcare that costs only $300 per month for a full family, children to age 25, and the pension, well… you get the picture, I'm sure.

http://www.thedailybell.com/2790/Adrian-Krieg-The-Dirt

These are zour Representatives.

Unbelieveble.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:17 | 1556141 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sales tax receipts way down in California. I guess the other states must be doing way better. Either that or July and August retail spending is going to uber-sux.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/july-california-tax-revenues-plunge-more-1...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:26 | 1556160 oobrien
Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:37 | 1556181 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Recession.....depression.....blahbittyblahblahblah.....

 

A grrl has gotta shop!!

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:59 | 1556216 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Exactly. During the Great Depresion commerce continued. People ate, bought clothes. They were cautious and frugal, yes. But they supported the part of Main Street that survived. 

But in a total twist of ridiculous irony, when you shop today you're not supporting Main Street. You're shipping your dollars to China. And part of your tax dollars go to support zombie banks and Wall Street. So shopping is actually harming the US economy. That's the net result of 4 decades of delusional economic policy. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:54 | 1556306 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

The only way I see that changing in my lifetime involves an enormous amount of PAIN.

 

This GRRL don't like PAIN.

 

I like to SHOP.

 

Besides.....my sister told me that Obama is gonna fix everything right!

Now.....where is that Netflix controller....

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 07:06 | 1556861 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The only commodity that will be free is love. As every body will be down in the dumps, having a few intense bumps from time to time will be a welcome interlude in depression. Go long seduction!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:08 | 1557125 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Love ain't free...Its on multiple payment plans. One 30 years, one eighteen years, and then there is college tuition...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:02 | 1557213 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Then, lets say, after the free return w/o a down payment,  its subsequently money well invested that a banksta won't get his hands on! You see it grow in terms beyond words, as its organic return on investment.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:37 | 1557345 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Rent and raise them right...problem solved.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:08 | 1557598 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I'm selling mine. I tried renting them out, but folks kept bringing em back...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 22:52 | 1558196 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Just make sure the buyers understand your returns and exchanges policy up front or enjoy the 15% RMA fee.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:51 | 1557662 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Don't forget lawyer fees.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:35 | 1557272 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

You offering sweet cheeks??

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:40 | 1557427 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Shirley you jest.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:45 | 1557481 falak pema
falak pema's picture

maybe she loves the court jester...to each his man of the moment.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:38 | 1557349 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So learn to window shop.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:09 | 1557390 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

member for a week eh?  sure are a lot more internet G.I.R.L.s here lately. . .

let the depression trolling begin. . .

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:37 | 1556182 Slow-choke-off
Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:38 | 1556183 Slow-choke-off
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:39 | 1557350 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We got it the first three times...you're preaching to the choir, and with overwrought platitudes no less.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:01 | 1556218 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

PrintoPalozza is on the way across the Globe....the Fed printing a few trillion to Swap with the EU for thier trillion Dollar Boondogglization of Italy, Spain and Portugal...

BOOOYAAH!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 22:16 | 1556251 Hyper Entropy
Hyper Entropy's picture

I hate it when the Gremlins take over the consumer confidence charts.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:03 | 1556322 DeathCabfoKulaks
DeathCabfoKulaks's picture

We aint getting out of this until the pain is maximized.  (And Howdy y'all)

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:23 | 1556367 sellstop
sellstop's picture

Looks like the correlation ended in '08. The sharp drop in retail sales was probably people giving up the frivolous purchases. Now retail sales won't react as much to sentiment.

gh

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:58 | 1556434 CactusLand
CactusLand's picture

Remarkable graph....you will never see it on the NYTimes, wonder why?  Here is my take on QE3... I think they will pull a big fast one out of their asses...

http://www.thecactusland.com/2009/11/what-qe3-will-look-like.html#comments

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 00:41 | 1556490 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

This is obviously a diagram of Retail Therapy...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 00:57 | 1556498 KowPie
KowPie's picture

NYTimes? They're about as close to the truth in print as a nerf gun is to lethal.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 01:27 | 1556520 European American
European American's picture

Real Shit Felonius Munk Pesents

 

Obama pay your f*ckin Bill

 

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 01:55 | 1556536 Jovil
Jovil's picture

Check the value of investments against one another using John Exter's Inverted Pyramid of Assets

 

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/06/08/john-exter%E2%80%99s-in...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 02:00 | 1556546 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

I, like most Patriotic Americans, consume cheap imported-by-Chinese trinkets because, well, it makes me feel better (son loved the kte, fail air car is a different story).  

 

It makes the endless stream of commercial propaganda make sense.  

 

Go w/ the flow, bro.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:41 | 1557356 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You know your son could learn a lot more from you building a kite with him, right?

http://makezine.com/

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 02:25 | 1556564 Jovil
Jovil's picture

His words 4 years ago are truer today. George Carlin, "They don't give a fu*k about you.

 

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/george-carlin-they-dont...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 04:03 | 1556661 Hman
Hman's picture

The WTF chart showes the coocked CPI numbers more than any thing else.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 04:03 | 1556662 Hman
Hman's picture

The WTF chart shows the cooked CPI numbers more than any thing else.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 08:08 | 1556884 I am Jobe
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 08:23 | 1556888 Crispy
Crispy's picture

sentiment vs cheap money...

 

 

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 08:23 | 1556889 Crispy
Crispy's picture

double tap...

 

 

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 08:39 | 1556898 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

476 AD -- were there still romans? Yes.

2011 AD -- are there still Americans? Yes.

Tommorow, will just be a little worse.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 09:08 | 1556912 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Thanks to the many that commented on my evening last night.  I actually made it back home about 2am.  I'm usually up by now regardless.  Had a really good time.  I'm really fortunate to live out here in the country.  I can't tell you how much fun it is to take off on the atv in the night.  Actually a lot of people out here do the same thing as they're legal on the county roads.  Decided id rather sleep in bed than on the ground, I probably should put a hammock up out there in the woods where I like to go lol. 

Yep, things are getting interesting aren't they.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:19 | 1557016 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Yes, very interesting.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10oHg_NRKSI

P.S. Most people never learn about how to sleep in a hammock. Get one of those King Sized Mayan Hammocks, they are the best. Find the angle in the hammock that keeps your back straight. You will be amazed. If you get in one and your back goes banana with the hammock the hammock is junk. If it is not junk, like the Mayan Hammock that you do not even need a pad for because the threads are woven right, so it will not waffel you, you are in it wrong. Your back should be perfectly straight when you find that perfect angle. http://mexico.novica.com/garden-and-patio/hammocks/hammock-dreaming-of-rainbows-large-deluxe/88501/

...slept in one for over a year, where I learned about hammocks at some store that sold them in SD, was so comfortable. I used it as my bed because it was so nice. Never had any problems. Two people can sleep in it at the same time no problem. If I recall, the one I had claimed it could handle 1000 lbs, That thing was the best beach bed ever. You just reminded me of the fact that I lost that somehow and I need another. Thing was strong and durable too, not like the junk you get at sporting goods or mountain climbing stores.. Lite too, you can take it anyplace.  ...just thought I'd mention it. I'm about to get the call to buy a 4wheeler and a place by some woods and water maybe next month. The Beltway ain't no fun about now. Cheers. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6cvHBUVLb4

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:21 | 1557041 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I learned about hammocks from the Mayan in Quintana Roo, great sleeping in a stick hut with a white sand floor with the carib breeze cooling you off. The problem was a real hammock was very expensive. Of course, the mota and cerveza made it all the better.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 10:33 | 1556982 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

I linked to this back in May, and it explains the graph completely:

http://adage.com/article/adagestat/ll-rich-35-100k-household-income/227671/

As stated then, I'll reiterate: if you're not in the $200k / annum + bracket by 34, you no longer matter. That is what the graph above shows - high rollers spending, the rest (and burning middle class) on a one way ticket to ghetto-ville1

 

Hate to say "told you so", but... told you fucking so.

  • 1. Gary, Indiana.
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 10:36 | 1556985 tom
tom's picture

So guess who's advertising on ZH now?

Treasury Direct. I kid you not. Man I wish I was on the pc where I could have taken a screen shot.

Smiley woman and daughter under the headline "Secure your future"

I know they didn't mean to advertise here but still, too damn funny.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:15 | 1557031 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Did you jot down the contact info? This gold and silver is too volatile, I need a safe and secure future for my investments. That sounds just about the best.... Full faith and credit, right?  Is it Timmmayyyy approved?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:05 | 1557013 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

All is well, the Teleprompter declared the US economy healthy as evidenced by the flight into the 10 year this week.

Damn racists and your fringe theories.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:12 | 1557022 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Here are our potential saviors!

Cain = Decepti-con - Would you like anchovies on that Federal Reserve Board Membership? I agree with the questioner. What was the question again?

Perry = Decepti-con - Bilderberger Seal of Approval - Al Gore Texas Campaign Manager
Romney = He make socialism work "better". Inventor of RomneyCare, model for ObamaCare.
Huntsman = Obama white | lite. Never met a Chinese business partner he didn't like. Expert at exporting jobs and making socialism work for him.
Pawlenty = What do you want me to say that you would like? Does anyone have a personality I could borrow? Is Romney hiring?
Gingrich = Managed to co-op Republican Revolution in the 1990s, made Clinton look good. Claims to be a conservative, while pushing AGW, The Third Wave, etc. The original Decepti-Con, nickname: Megatron.
Bachman = Autobat. Former IRS Tax Lawyer. She will adopt us all and grant freedom through the Patriot Act.
Sanitorium = Let me control your family and morals, and I'll attack Iran for you too. Never met a pro-Israel position he didn't like. The other side of the Glen Beck Coin.
Paul = The only Conservative in the race, strict Constitutionalist. MSM and Bilderberger Seal of Disapproval. The only rational candidate. Voted most likely to be 'eliminated' by the Banksters.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:15 | 1557033 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

Draining the swamp was the unbridled promise of Nancy Pelosi when she was Speaker of the house. Not only did she not drain the swamp, she was one of the instruments that dammed it up. How bad is it? We have 100 senators and 435 members of the House for a total of 535. As of today the following statistic is applicable: 29 spousal abuses, 7 frauds, 19 passing bad cheques, 117 bankruptcies (considering they get over $150K that is truly amazing), 3 assaults, 71 insufficient credit to get a credit card, 14 for illicit drug use, 8 for shoplifting, 21 currently in litigation, 84 for drunk driving. This works out to 374 out of 535 legislatorsthat are crooks, which leaves 164 that could be clean. What a state of affairs. And they have an 87% re-election rate to boot!

We pay congressmen $174,000 per year. Then we give them an employee allowance of $900,000. Then we give them $250,000 for office expenses (we provide the office space). The average legislator costs the taxpayers $3.3 million a year. Can you imagine receiving that sort of income and then not being able to get a credit card due to bad debt? Oh, I almost forgot the "Franking Privilege" and the healthcare that costs only $300 per month for a full family, children to age 25, and the pension, well… you get the picture, I'm sure.

 

Who the fuck is voting for this scum?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:32 | 1557059 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Thanks for that info. We need term limits badly. One term in office, one term in Federal Prison, not the Tennis Court Summer Camp version but the giant fat butt pirate version where the guards look the other way for a cigarette.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:49 | 1557191 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

 

You forgot the Rick Perry game plan:

 

1.  Seize private land in imminent domain, sell to foreigners, collect triple taxation in the deal.  Hobnob with the Bilderbergers.  Make eyes at Palin.

2.  Run a nine billion deficit in TX.  Fire all the schoolteachers to save money.  Don't touch the administrators.

3.  Pay lip service to liberty by threatening the EPA and HSA, but fold faster than superman on laundry day when feds threaten funding.

4.  Maintain the greatest head of hair east of a hollywood set.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:02 | 1557215 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Thanks for the details, I hope America is not fooled by this Decepti-Con. I will commit suicide before voting for him. Wait, it would be suicide anyway, just slower.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:06 | 1557222 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Perry also signed into law allowing illegals to be admitted to State Univeristy for In-State tuition rates. Too bad Americans fron other States have to pay more then double what an illegal has to pay. Odd system...odd man.

 

You are right about his loading the risk and costs (of the toll roads) onto Texans, but gives the profits to Spanish Bankers who "own" the rights to many of these "royalties."

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:44 | 1557362 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Don't worry. No one with a brain wants to move to Texas for school anyway.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:34 | 1557523 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

You could have stopped at "...Texas.."

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