The Check Is In The Mail And Other Lies

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,


Somehow my frustration level is high today.  Just feels like we are being lied to, and no one wants to question the lies.

Spanish auctions were a big “success”.  That was the story.  It wasn’t surprising at all since everyone knew how closely the auction was being scrutinized.  What they forgot to manipulate is the post auction trading.  Spanish CDS is back over 500, up from 490 earlier in the session.  The Spanish 10 year bond, traded as tight 5.75% this morning, but is back over 5.9% and rising.  So  much for a “successful” auction.

BAC and MS had “great” earnings.  MS no longer includes DVA in its “continuing operations” headline number.  It was a loss of $2 billion this quarter.  With 2 billion shares outstanding, that would have wiped out the gain.  What bothers me, is that in Q3, when it was a gain of $3 billion, it was part of continuing ops.  Really?  It is that easy to change what is part of ongoing business and what isn’t.  During this quarter they allegedly made $600 million from unwinding a trade with Italy.  They were taking credit reserves against this trade, and were able to release it.  Fair, but it should be categorized the same as DVA.  This DVA categorization shift seems incredibly misleading and is the exact sort of thing I thought Sarbanes-Oxley was supposed to protect investors from.  The quarter was okay, but this shift strikes me as very untrustworthy.  On BAC, there is a $3.3 billion adjustment to Fair Value Obligations.  Fair enough, but what are the obligations, and what is the adjustment?  It seems that something that is size of the quarter’s earnings should be disclosed more fully.  I would like to know what it is, and it has to be hedge that tightened, because nothing much went materially wider this quarter.  On other hand, the new issue bond side must have killed it, great quarter for bond issuance, is that sustainable?

Jobless claims drop by 2,000.  That was the headline.  No mention at first that the prior week’s already surprisingly bad number had been revised up to 588,000.  That is why it improved, because last week’s awful number was made awfuller (I know that’s not a word, but too annoyed to care).  This week’s claims number was bad, missed expectations by a lot, and last week’s is horrific, especially when compared to original expectations of a print in the 350’s.

We have some more data later today, but I remain bearish.  Nothing that has happened so far today has been good, and the attempt to spin everything so positively is downright scary.  EU officials are busy pumping up that market.  The IMF is talking up a storm – hey, don’t look at actual debt and cash flows, just stare at this nice beautiful firewall made up of promises.

On a bright note, the HY bond market remains strong. HY CDS might be weak, but bonds remain strong and we are seeing renewed growth in shares outstanding in the HY ETF’s.  It feels to me that once again, “prudent” investors are hedging some risk with CDS, but rather than selling what is rich and well bid, they are shorting what is already cheap and well offered.  Expect a reversion soon where either CDS rips tighter, or an otherwise calm bond market goes bidless until it catches up.

CDS indices are weaker now.  IG18 is out above 100 after trading better than 99.  MAIN traded sub 140 earlier, and is back to 143.5. 

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Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Gold playing "ball pops up from underwater" again.


I like 'awfuller' :)

GetZeeGold's picture



Please hurl into a paper sack......we can't afford to pay the maid anymore.


TruthInSunshine's picture





Big 'Sis*

*Your Benevolent We-Don't-Give-A-F*ck & What-Are-You-Going-To-Do-About-It Orwellian Handlers

CClarity's picture

Rosie labeled them correctly - it's Bubblevision

CNBC is pure propaganda, but then again, Mad Money's Cramer wants to be on Mad Men.  It's all advertising folks. 

GetZeeGold's picture



Heh heh.....on Drudgereport just now.....crap they're not buying the BS.


Feds up last week's jobless claims to 388,000...

benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, the Labor Department said. But the prior week's figure was revised up to 388,000 from the previously reported 380,000.



Thomas's picture

HFT algos control equities. Blythe and the London Whale control the commodities. Bernanke controls the treasuries. Obama controls the Ministry of Truth statisticians. EU is riding rough shod over the sovereign bond auctions (LTROMFG). Why are you edgy, Peter?

NewWorldOrange's picture

"No mention at first that the prior week’s already surprisingly bad number had been revised up to 588,000."


It was revised up to 388,000, NOT 588,000. C'mon Tyler ;)

TeresaE's picture

It was written by Peter Tchir, not Tyler.  C'mon NWO ;)

NewWorldOrange's picture

Is there a such thing as editorial responsibility? I seem to recall oh, THOUSANDS of (well-deserved) criticisms here of such errors made elsewhere. It wouldn't be a stretch to say a lot of the articles here are all about such criticism. I like to think that zerohedge does better than the others with presenting factual, proper analysis. And I like to think that I do my little part to help in that endeavor. Done ;)


Now get off Tyler's bone. That's Marla's job. And there's more to life than trying to post something that'll be popular at the top of a zerohedge article.

Jim in MN's picture


RAN Squawk sez:


IMF's Lagarde says collective action is needed to counter risks


Goddamn right, and these lying swine ARE the risks.

NewWorldOrange's picture

Too many swine, not enough butchers.

GolfHatesMe's picture

Who here isn't Long Frustration

Uncle Remus's picture

Is that what's stinking up my safe?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Wow, you know it's bad when even Pete is calling them out...

Ted Baker's picture


legal eagle's picture

How about these?

1.  We believe in the rule of law

2.  We believe in self-determination for nation states

3. We believe in democracy

4.  We believe hard work should pay off

5.  We believe in the constitution, you know, like when we believed in the 4th amendment

6.  We believe our government is there to help and protect us

7. We believe in the soverignty of nations

8.  You own your land

9.  Parents have a right to determine what their children do

10. Those with the best ethics will be better off in the long run

11.  The police do not abuse people

12.  The banks are safe!

Ha ha ha ha ha ha

GetZeeGold's picture



That's crazy talk sound like Ted Nugent.


legal eagle's picture

14.  We know who owns your mortgage and note

15.  Your payments are discharging your debt


LawsofPhysics's picture

16.  The second amendment is to protect our right to hunt game.

All these truths, work, until they don't.

At the end of the day it simply becomes an issue of survival - this is precisely why cheating is encouraged in most cultures, getting caught is what is considered "dishonerable."

hedgeless_horseman's picture



17.  The Department of Defense is for defense.

18.  We invaded Afghanistan 12+ years ago, because______________________.

19.  I am with the government and I am here to help.

20.  100% natural ingredients.

21.  "A very limited number of waivers..."


ebworthen's picture

#21.  From text - "exigent waivers", term for the decade, no one is liable for malfeasance, laws aren't laws, banks own you along with government (wait, the banks ARE the government).

legal eagle's picture

#22  Dont worry, I am on the pill

#23  No, I never slept with your friend

#24  You look great in those jeans

eatthebanksters's picture

#25   Trust me, I work for the government!

Arthor Bearing's picture

#26 News shows' purpose is to inform, not to stun you into watching ads

#27 HFTs create value

#28 Those security state powers we seized are only ever going to be used against dirty hateful Muslims

hedgeless_horseman's picture



29.  We are still the land of the free and the home of the brave.

NewWorldOrange's picture

#30  Your money will be segregated from the firm's money.

#31  The national debt will never be monetized.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

14. "There is no risk of thAAAt"

MFL8240's picture

Why begin to question the lies now?  The sytem has been gamed, rigged, manipulated and we have been lied to for the past 20 years, its only starting to show because they are unable to rememeber the past lies and make mistakes with the new ones.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"The sytem has been gamed, rigged, manipulated and we have been lied to for the past 2000 years"

- fixed.

NewWorldOrange's picture

""The sytem has been gamed, rigged, manipulated and we have been lied to for the past 2000 years"


The system has been gamed, rigged, manipulated and we have been lied to to since man-made systems began.


If you're gonna' fix something, may as well do it right.

Randall Cabot's picture

Here's another one: Marketwatch disappeared the Ibex from its Europe list today:  







hedgeless_horseman's picture



Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia.

firstdivision's picture

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!  Nice catch.  When it looks bad, we hide it. 

Jim in MN's picture

Spain.  Sp...a...can you spell that for me?


Sorry, never heard of it.  Try calling another continent.


Ital......It......can you spell that for me?


You have a nice day too, SIR.

GMadScientist's picture

Crap. That wasn't supposed to go through until they leave the Zooro.

ArkansasAngie's picture

It will take bringing both the Democratic and Republican Parties down.  These two sets of yahoos have been in power too long.

Until then ... this kind of shat will continue to happen

kridkrid's picture

Meh... the two parties are just a distraction at this point.  "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws!" - It's the monetary system that needs to be taken down.  People need to focus on the disease, not the symptoms.

ArkansasAngie's picture

And it will take bringing down the Democrats and the Republicans in order to strip the monetary system of its SS storm troopers

kridkrid's picture

I don't think it will work that way.  First of all, I'm fairly convinced that we can't take down the political parties.  They've gamed the system far too well.  Congressional approval rating is in single digits, yet there is no significant movement afoot to enact any sort of meaningful change.  The system that you are wanting to fight controls the media, controls both parties, controls our centers of learning, etc.  If a chance ever did exist for meaningful change, that agent of change would be quickly eliminated or consumed into the apparatus.  

The good news... the system WILL collapse on its own.  I don't think we'll even have to wait for very long.  It's anyone’s guess what the transition period will look like or what things will be like on the other side.  I'm not terribly optimistic.

CH1's picture

I've already pulled out.

It's a wonderful thing to get back all that energy you wasted on politics.

Cursive's picture

"Feels like we're being lied to?". Feels? Peter, please drop the Phil Donahue sensitivity talk. (facepalm)

jus_lite_reading's picture

It looks like they are losing control of the ship, just as they did in the former USSR (and ancient Rome)

LongSoupLine's picture

Is my frustration that obvious Tyler?

Good. Keep telling the truth with concurrent mass dissemination of such truth. Man, I love oasis of truth amidst a boiling sea of stinking bowel explosions.

DormRoom's picture

PR spin.  To them it's not lying.   They have to massage the message.  News reporter only read the PR releases.   They don't have time to analyze stories.  So they rely on the PR.


kridkrid's picture

To them it's not lying.  That is so very true.  And this is the rabbit hole most don't want to go down.  It's all a lie.

Everybodys All American's picture

BS on high speed ... hedge accordingly.

monopoly's picture

Peter feels the way most of us do here. It is like the energizer bunny. Just keeps clicking on and on. At some point the battery dies and must be replaced. Just like this country must be replaced. Until we reset and start over, nothing will change. Lets talk in November.