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Chicago PMI 56.5 Lowest Since November 2009, But Beats Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture


That the August Chicago PMI dropped to 56.6, down from 58.8 in Julye, and the lowest since November 2009 is irrelevant. What is relevant is that this number beat expectations of 53.3, so the ripfest is on: after all, stocks move higher on worse than expected data, which should they not surge on a consensus beat. Remember: the QE3/career risk rally is on. Nothing else matters. Among the index components, Prices paid dropped from 71.7 to 68.6, Production declined from 64.3 to 57.8, same for New Orders, Backlogs, and Inventtories. The two components that did go up were Supplied Deliveries from 55.9 to 60.5 and Employment, up from 51.5 to 52.1. And now everyone looks to tomorrow's ISM, for which the PMI is traditionally a good proxy, with hope that the number will print above 50 despite every single regional Fed indicating a mid-40's print.

Knee jark market response:


"This is a good number, but yesterday consumer confidence was the worst in two years. I don't see any improvement. You have to take the good with the bad, but I remain in the double dip camp, I think GDP is horrendous. I don't think our growth rate isn't going to get us anywhere. The only difference lately is that the market takes bad news pretty well, which is a short-term bullish sign."


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Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:58 | 1618619 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

"Better then expected." What else?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:32 | 1618741 espirit
espirit's picture

"What else"?  Decouple the dollah from all else and send the markets to the moon.

Pulling the wool over the sheeples eyes once again.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:51 | 1619084 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture
, On Wednesday August 31, 2011, 10:38 am EDT


NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose Wednesday, capping a wild month in the stock market, after a surge in factory orders reassured investors that the manufacturing industry remains healthy.


Factory orders rose 2.4 percent in July, the biggest increase since March. Demand for automobiles jumped by the largest amount in eight years and orders for commercial airplanes soared. Manufacturing has been one of the strongest parts of the economy since the recession ended about two years ago.


The Dow Jones industrial average rose 143 points, or 1.2 percent, to 11,703. The Dow turned positive for the year, and has risen seven of the last eight days. Aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. rose 4.3 percent, the most of the 30 companies that make up the Dow average.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1618766 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Game on!!!  BTFD.....F-N joke........

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1618838 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Expect nothing and you'll always have better results.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:12 | 1619158 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

For those who pine for QE3, they will have to make do with mere 'twists' in the breeze:

AUGUST 31, 2011

Economy Deeply Divides Fed

Jon Hilsenrath

New Records Show Central Bank Officials at Odds Over How to Revive Recovery

Rejiggering the composition of the Fed's securities holdings could also be a half-step which wins common agreement. Economic theory suggests that the Fed can push down long-term interest rates and stimulate growth by buying more long-term securities while it sells short-term securities. The Fed could twist the portfolio in this manner without adding to it, which might pacify inflation hawks who worry that the Fed's $2.8 trillion portfolio of securities, loans and other assets already is too large.

Write to Jon Hilsenrath at

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:59 | 1618623 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Head and shoulders bitchez

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1618663 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

looks more like a cock and balls formation.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1618760 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sitting currently in 1227-1230 resistance region, which we calculate will be the end-point of this bear market rally.  We sold off three quarters of our ES/SPY calls and are just watching and waiting for a signal to re-short. 

The 50DMA is located at the neckline of the H&S: 1257.72.  The people who really have their career based on this crazy rally want to re-test that number and get ES positive for the year again.    

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 12:39 | 1619229 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Oh yes.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:59 | 1618625 Racer
Racer's picture

It isn't a 'market'

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:14 | 1618691 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Something appears to be up.  Momo rolling over and some of my bearish call options are being bid up.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:20 | 1618708 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Stands to reason.  This is one of the most obvious and laughable markups I have ever seen.  The algos that forget to turn off HAVE TO BE arbitraged by the close of this session.  I cannot imagine anyone would actually try to hold this into ISM.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:25 | 1618722 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like a prop job for the end of the month.  I sincerely hope these overpriced equities are currently being distributed to a multitude of Cramericans.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:28 | 1618736 Cdad
Cdad's picture

By Cramericans, if you mean the people in the control room who call in as supposedly  "active investors," I don't think they can own individual stocks.  

These stocks are being distributed to ETF managers.  You can see the accumulation on the inverse ETFs even now, although the pricing on these things is entirely disconnected from good luck with those.

Death of Market credibility, one markup at a time.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:08 | 1618865 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Check that high print on the Roach Motel [SPY].  Electronic manipulation at its finest.  Someone is going to get a big bonus this Christmas when that short, set at 127.07 is cashed in after the next leg down.

But maybe...and we can always hope...Mary Schapiro of the SEC will finally quit meeting with the criminal syndicate masterminds of Wall Street to discuss how important those co located computers in the room next to where Duncan Niederauer takes his afternoon constitutional are.  I dare say that free market capitalism now depends on such computer theft as this.

Good luck out the market has now received its most basic signal that tomorrow's ISM will be really bad...and "surprisingly" so.


**Tyler, could you ask the boys over at Nanex about this one...just for shits and giggles?**

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:59 | 1618626 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Nothing to see here. Another scam

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1618772 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

I just LOVE living in this Goldilocks World of "Better Than Expectations"! Reminds me of the sotry of Goldilocks - when she was scampering down the trail and was attacked by the bear. during the attack, the bear ate both of her legs off, ate both of her arms off, she had her guts ripped out and will be wearing a colostomy bag for the rest of her life, the bear ripped half of her face off so she will now have to be fed through a tracheometry tube the rest of her life - and obviously she is eaten up with bed sores since she will never be able to move agian - which is of no soncsquence since she will be in a coma until the day she dies -- BUT -- It was Better than the Expert Analyst Expected -- They thought The bear would have killed her!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:59 | 1618628 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

ISM New York report out today: Officially in contraction mode to 47.8 (below 50) , now at levels last seen June, 2009. Revenues were down 40% from August 2010! And businesses report difficulty with financing

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618630 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Honey Badger Market Don't Care

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:16 | 1618697 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

Market don't give a SHIT!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:00 | 1618631 reading
reading's picture

I thought better than expected was bad now as that would mean no QE3.  We need bad, really bad then we can rally 100 points a day on the S&P.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618638 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, it's all so polluted now that it's literally worthless.  If you aren't on the inside and know which way the market will be shoved then you shouldn't be in it, period.

It's just three card monte now.  If you aren't moving the walnut shells, you on the wrong side of the bet.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:04 | 1618650 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Nah, this is a replay of the time leading up to QE2;

Good news = rally, as the "economy is vibrant and healthy"

Bad news = rally, as "likelyhood of QE3 will emerge sooner"

Horrible news = rally, as "more QE will solve all problems"

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:01 | 1618632 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

I need to just go back to surfing for porn, reading dribble like this just upsets me, porn makes me happy


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618635 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

ADP down, PMI at 2009 levels, spells a good gay for stocks.  If they were both higher, it would be a better day for the Wall Street circus.  Gold down they call it yesterdays news. What a fucking joke this whole sytem is.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618636 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

US Mortgage Aps down 10% last week (!)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618639 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More good news, another 50 Dow points.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618660 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The Wall Streeters still think big QE is coming (cause it goes straight into their pockets). They're gonna be surprised. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:45 | 1618788 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I don't think the criminal syndicate Wall Streeters think QE is coming.  They are just saying this and posturing, while selling into their own markup...selling to the criminal syndicate Wall Streeters who previously refused to buy stocks because they know the fundamentals are absolutely deteriorating...but are now buying things so they can show them on their books at month end.

And those are the guys, ironically, who will be punished as the markup is reversed.

Wall Street...always rewarding the shysters and while shafting actual work and productivity.  Pink slips, please.  We need more Wall Street pink slips if we are ever going to recover.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:14 | 1618930 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Homebuilders are rallying on the good news

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1618637 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Well aren't the auto companies included in the Chicago PMI? I mean they have been building cars straight through the summer. I wonder how many cars are on the dealer lots right now.

But it is still a beat. I find all of this very entertaining as I continue to build stock piles of money on the side and make quick in and out trades for a few grand here and there...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1618670 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Judging by one of the local dealers, quite a bit.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1618640 Version 7
Version 7's picture

I hope the markets take every chance they can to rally right now so there can be a decent crash in Sept/Oct

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1618643 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Sell the fuckin' rip. !!!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:04 | 1618649 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

OECD Second quarter report out today:


The growth in goods trade between major economies slumped in the second quarter of 2011, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday, in the latest sign that the global economy may be losing steam.

The Paris-based think tank said import growth in the Group of Seven leading nations and the key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa expanded just 1.1% in the second quarter--down from 10.1% in the first. Total export growth slowed to 1.9% from 7.7%, the OECD said.

(From Dow Jones News Service)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1618671 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No worries, hedonics and imputations to the rescue! Positive GDP growth is guaranteed.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:04 | 1618651 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

So, someone help me out, if damn near everything beats expectations...aren't they just shitty expectations?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1618665 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's what you call lowering the bar for the fat kid in the 3rd grade gym class

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1618680 RSloane
RSloane's picture


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:16 | 1618693 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Can go all the way to barely above zero with "better than expected."

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1618751 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

No momo trader left behind.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618653 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

ladies and gentlemen,  we are now entering the hobbs bottom.....

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618654 Irish66
Irish66's picture


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1618658 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The S&P 500 has now moved up approximately 91 points off its intraday low of ~1136 on Friday, August 26 when the Fed didn't announce QE3.

What a FUBAR market.  All that is needed for a rally is for The Great Chairsatan to dangle a carrot...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618659 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Not long now before it will be cheaper to wipe myself with dollars bills, than wasting valuable toilet paper!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1618661 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



CRB Index just broke out to 3 - mo. highs.

As long as the CRB, AUD, EUR are outperforming, bears are going to be in for much more pain.

Like I said, I bet we run all the way up to the 200-day.  By then every bear who shorted late will be way underwater.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:12 | 1618686 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation, baby!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1618664 fuu
fuu's picture

And slaughterer's 1227 call looks in the bag.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:09 | 1618676 Irish66
Irish66's picture

touched and pulled off, interesting

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1618667 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

let's see if this work's with my wife. Honey since you've always suspected me of banging your best friend and have treated me as such, I just want to let you know that I wasn't banging your best friend, just your sister. What's for dinner?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1618668 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Factory orders rose even though Fed surveys said they declined? bit of wild divergence going on.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1618678 adr
adr's picture

Have we ever had a period of more $100+ per share stocks? The prices are insane. But P/E doesn't matter, fundamentals don't matter.

Only the pumping of stock matters. Why can't LULU be a $150 stock, Panera is $117.

Factory orders always go up in July because of back to school. The real factors behind the headline doesn't matter. The truth takes a backseat to bullshit as usual.

So what level is correct? over 100 years of history or a couple bubble highs. Wall Street would lead you to believe that the 2000 high and the 2008 high is the correct market level. Copper reset to its proper price in 2008 but then inflated again becuase of Bernanke. Sorry but based on history anything above DOW 9000 at this point is a massive bubble ad anyone with a rational brain can't argue against that.

Sure McD's hit a new all time high. You think people will eat there when a Big Mac hits $10.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1618684 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Key statement from Joy Global's earnings report out this morning...

It's the tell from a company perfectly positioned as a barometer in the global economy:


Commenting further, co states: There is increasing evidence that slowing is underway in economies worldwide, and that growth in the U.S. and Europe may remain structurally lower for several years. Various indicators of economic growth are declining and moving toward neutral. Worldwide trade, measured by new export orders, remained close to the neutral level in July with the slowing of exports from China, Germany and Japan....Growth also slowed in India, Brazil and Russia."

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1618685 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Why didn't they just set the forecast at 30.33 so this would have been a phenomenal beat. Market would be up 500+ points.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1618713 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Next month.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:16 | 1618694 props2009
props2009's picture

Add up everyone debt problems and the amount if 795 billion euros. Add up the solution to the problem, we reach a number 440 billion euros. 
In charts

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:16 | 1618695 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

markit zero bitchez



Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:17 | 1618698 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

When you have low expectations you can beat them....this makes A LOT of sense


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:18 | 1618699 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Remember the last 3 day 5% rally we had into month end? That worked out well.

Chasing a rally, based on month end allocations and a bernanke stick save.

Fundamentals indeed.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:17 | 1618700 docj
docj's picture

Someone said it best recently - our entire culture has once again devolved back into the days when we sit around the smoldering embers of our campfire, cold, tired and wet, waiting for some "wise man" to emerge from a cave and make the sun come up again.

Sadly, our "wise man" is Benron. But everything he says, no matter what it is, has the effect of making Mr. Market jump for joy while all the rest of us get butt-sore from the pounding.

But Jersey Shore is back on, so Idol America simply does not care. And won't, until the riots start (which will probably coincide with the grid going down taking Jersey Shore, blessedly, off the air).

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:19 | 1618705 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

All of these indicators in the last few days back to 2009 levels make it approproate to say this........


Oh my God. I'm back. I'm home. All the time, it was... We finally really did it. 
[screaming]  You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell! 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:19 | 1618706 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I BTFD'ed a few days ago. I know. I'm sorry. The smell of desperation rally was just too much to pass up. I think even the Fed feels sorry for these losers at this point that they'll keep playing rope a dope. At 1250, it's time to buy the VXX calls middle class welfare check.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:22 | 1618714 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

a nearly 100 point move on the /Es this week on nothing but shitty economic data and no volume.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:22 | 1618715 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Check your chart, PMI higher than in 2006

and if you wanna keep bitching about recession

and rising stock prices, then look at 2008 on that chart.

Sell your GOLD and run... :)))

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:24 | 1618720 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



JOYG missed and the stock is up nearly 5%.  Parker Hannifin and Goodyear also pretty strong today.

The tape is talking, cyclicals are moving up nicely.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:27 | 1618730 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I just posted JOYG's comments from the earnings report here just moments ago....go back and read it. It's a real tell on the global economy

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:28 | 1618735 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

KO, MCD - all time highs..
Shorts bend over!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:46 | 1619071 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Who would short Crackdonalds and Cocaine Cola?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:27 | 1618731 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Interesting day so far. If the head inmate does not give the market a trillion or more next month, look out below.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:29 | 1618734 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Let them have their bonus! For a while it'll be IT with free money! No matter how they keep spining it, once they realize there isn't anything coming.....good night! There can't be more free money without congres folks, that's the way it's played! Am -30% on my puts but still HERE and I KNOW I'll make a boat load when this sucker goes to 950 or less!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:33 | 1618743 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hong Kong’s benchmark gained 1.6 per cent to 20,534.85 on Wednesday but still ended August with losses of 8.5 per cent, its worst performance since October 2008.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:33 | 1618746 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Yeah, tough to be betting against the tape with KO and MCD at world record highs. But most guys here are into self-inflicted punishment, so they keep shorting.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:37 | 1618758 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, RoboTarder, you dipshit retard - even though the Dow, Naz & Spooz are all lower in NOMINAL terms than they were 11 years ago, and about 60% to 85% lower in real terms, keep putting your allowance and baseball card money in the markets, teller boy.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:37 | 1618761 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Looks from the action today that a bet with the tape is a bet against America. 


And don't be too sure that smart traders on ZH are on the wrong side of that one. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:46 | 1618791 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

only robo, seeing the defensive names higher, would call it bullish.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:51 | 1618816 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Robo is one of the brightest and well regarded market forecaster and economist in his entire apartment.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:48 | 1618805 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

looks like you're back to your vague psychobabble instead of the short lived (and quite embarrassing) attempt and making some actual calls BEFORE the move.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1618748 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Region-wide, the FTSE Asia Pacific index rose 1.2 per cent to 241.53 for losses in August of 8.7 per cent, the worst month for Asian stocks since May 2010.


Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:59 | 1618859 swissbene
swissbene's picture

look at it as an opportunity to buy more puts.  not too many -- could be another 'rally' tomorrow.  this market keeps on giving...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:59 | 1618861 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow, these markets are totally broken now.  Dollar surges, equities surge, gold surges, silver surges.  Trading in these markets is like playing roulette.  This surge has neutered QE3 for the time being.  They will need to tank equities again to get QE3 approved (probably why the dollar has been surging while equities surge).  So expect massive declines prior to the next FOMC meeting.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:09 | 1618904 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

I truly fear for the future of this planet the way this is going

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:09 | 1618907 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

The demographic changes may be the biggest and least- appreciated reason why the two-year recovery has slowed, because the rate of growth for labor and capital is “the most important determinant” of economic expansion, said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

More retirees mean slower household formation, reduced consumer spending and downward pressure on equity prices as retirement cuts people’s purchasing power, according to John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York, and Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

I am now offically depressed.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:17 | 1618940 Kina
Kina's picture

The 'market' is of course meaningless except as a measure of the level of corruption in the SEC, Fed and Banks, which is about off the scale now.


The Fed may as well issue everybody with a timetable hour by hour day by day of how high they will be lifting markets, and when they wont.


Certainly nothing is based on price discovery.


Wall street and SEC have less credibility than Mardoff.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:31 | 1621906 seoerlin
seoerlin's picture

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shacai's picture

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kevin22's picture

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