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Chicago PMI Plunges To 52.7, Lowest Print Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture


The latest economic data point comes out, which is the Chicago PMI, not to be confused with the meaninglessly duplicate MarkIt ISM Manufacturing PMI which was released earlier this month, and sure enough it confirms once again we are on a full glideslope to more QE. At 52.7, it collapsed from the prior print of 56.8, and missing expectations of 56.2. This was the lowest print since September of 2009. And scene. NEW QE is now 100% assured.

Digging through the numbers: 

  • Production and New Orders lowest since September 2009
  • Prices Paid lowest since September 2010, Employment rate of growth has slowed

Charting the near-recessionary print:

which is the largest 3 month drop since December 2008...

Again - freefall, and the ISM is next:

And as usual, the always informative respondents:

  1. There is a strong economic uncertainty at this time. There is considerable inflationary pressure.
  2. Our orders are staying pretty steady, but our backlog only takes us through the end of June.
  3. Business is slowing down right now. We had a decent first quarter but its gotten quiet.
  4. A decrease in order intake and backlog over the past three months has caused our first workforce reductions since the Carter years.
  5. China inflation is kicking in for our business starting in the second quarter. Canadian business is flat but US seems solid.
  6. Uncertainty, volatility and speculation rule the raw material pricing market. This is having significant impact on our ability to compete, reinvest, and grow our business.
  7. Aluminum products sales remain at record levels.
  8. Business opportunities seem to be picking up but their continues to be a lot of financial stress on smaller firms. These firms seem reluctant to take on more debt.
  9. New orders have slowed but outlook remains good because of quote volume and size of projects being quoted.
  10. Pricing instability being experienced in rubber and thermoforming - resins. All other areas fairly quiet. 
  11. And the best one: "Slowing down."



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Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:49 | 2479106 CClarity
CClarity's picture

More confirmation that without medication this economy can't grow - there has been no organic growth in years.  Just CB manipulation.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:52 | 2479134 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"And scene. NEW QE is now 100% assured."

WHEN master?  (This crack addict market is jonesing bad.)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:57 | 2479160 SHEEPFUKKER

100% guarantee or your money back. 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:00 | 2479183 SHEEPFUKKER

Fuck, how is that gold/silver raid just now. Really, this shit.........again?? 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:10 | 2479240 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

YUP, THIS SHIT again.   It's called the PM liquidation for liquidity projectile vomit.  

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:15 | 2479259 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Or, more logically, JPM has a direct line to the Fed and knew in advance what the numbers were so were instructed to take PM's down.  Happens all the time.  "Raid" is so verbose.  It's ponzinomics, Benocide style.


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:17 | 2479278 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is in no way someone selling gold they own to raise money.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:15 | 2479265 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If they have to try this hard, this often, there is obviously a massive paper currency problem.  The more they play this desperation hand, the more worried I am about the currency system.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:08 | 2479231 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No need for Bernanke to buy bonds.  Rates are already plenty low.  There is no dearth of demand for them or rates would not be that low.

Additionally, the S&P is up about 3% YTD.  What's the problem?


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:11 | 2479246 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You don't get it. The purpose of "buying bonds" is to pass money under the table to WS and other insiders. And you and me are supposed to lick up whatever come's trickling down 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:11 | 2479247 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The "demand" is coming from central banks reciprocal buying and Fed purchases under the table.  If they can stop deflation by bringing those purchases above board, or by adding new purchases above board (even better!), then they will probably do that.

Of course, this is all deck chairs on the Titanic.  Or perhaps more appropriately, iceburg bumper cars after the initial hit on the Titanic.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:28 | 2479360 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

"They" may not actually want to stop deflation as it will tend to put a select few in extreme economic power.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:12 | 2479251 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Hope you're being sarcastic, because rates are low due to JPM's manipulation of TNX through interest rate swaps.  JPM is the Fed.  What you see is not real.


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:09 | 2479233 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Dear Ben: If you start signaling QE is coming (in your incomparably sly way, you master of the art you), then I promise to fully refresh all my old i-crap with new i-crap. Wink Wink!!!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:19 | 2479294 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Yes - When? When? When? When? When?

QE now will not last into the Fall.  S&P (still) up for the year.  Europe/banks bad now ("help!") , but likely worse later ("HELP!!!")

So, When?

or When now and When AGAIN?!?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:59 | 2479172 duo
duo's picture

HP (former EDS) laying off several thousand and JCPenney walking out 600 buyers and ad people in the last two months is going to leave a dent in the N. TX economy (which had been sailing along over the last few years). 

The electronics distributor in my building, a 20-year-old company with 8 people, already told their employees that they will be closing for good EOY.  Margins are too thin to survive Obamacare and taxageddon, the owner says.  They will be vacating the building and working from home until the end.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:19 | 2479284 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Saxon Mortgage has announced more than 600 pending job cuts in North Texas.

Saxon manages home loan payments across the United States.

It is shutting down facilities in Fort Worth and Irving.

The company said between May and December 454 workers in Fort Worth and another 226 in Irving could lose their jobs.


My brother lives in Hurst...he says airport construction is strong (if you want to work outside in 110 degree heat) for jobs but most other companies/stores are contracting.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:29 | 2479368 duo
duo's picture

Is this the place where my mortgage payments disappear to?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:25 | 2479338 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

The slumping personal computer business was hit by more bad news as Dell Computer Corp. executives announced another round of layoffs, this time cutting 3,000 to 4,000 jobs.

Round Rock, Texas-based Dell, the world's largest PC manufacturer, said Mon … the latest cuts would occur over the next six months, and mostly in central Texas. Many employees who escape layoffs will be forced to take unpaid time off, the company said.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:30 | 2479377 duo
duo's picture

But Apple will hire a few of those people and pay them half as much.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 13:01 | 2480172 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"But Apple will hire a few of those people and pay them half as much."

I wonder - do they pay for relocation to the FoxConn (Hon Hai) facilities in China, or is that cost to be borne by the expats?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:08 | 2479229 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

t should not come as a surprise with unemployment over 8% that good paying jobs in manufacturing are harder than ever to land.

 At the Hyundai plant in Montgomery, Alabama more than 20,000 people have applied for one of the 877 job openings.

The surge of people applying may seem unusual, but it's not.

Take a look:

  • Last summer Ford had more than 18,000 people apply for one of 1,800 jobs at the retooled Louisville plant. That plant will open and start building the Edge SUV in mid-June.
  • In 2011, more than 41,000 applied for one of the 1,300 positions at the new Toyota plant in Tupelo, Mississippi.
  • In 2009, more than 65,000 applied for one of the 2,700 jobs at the new Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, TN. Since opening, that plant has added shifts and is currently hiring another 820 workers.

There's no doubt the recession and the fact so many Americans are still out of work was the primary factor driving the waves of people applying for jobs at auto plants.

Another huge factor is the type of jobs being offered. Good pay and benefits with solid companies in an industry set for steady growth over the next 3-5 years. Those jobs are hard to find in blue-collar America. 

( I see no mention of temp auto jobs. Cummins maintains a healthy temp staff, not as great a package as the fulltimers, and they have had their package reduced from the 80's, but hey better than min wage)
Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:49 | 2479107 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

NEW QE is now 100% assured.


Free money. Yay!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:50 | 2479116 Quintus
Quintus's picture

"NEW QE is now 100% assured."


It always has been.  Question is 'When'?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:54 | 2479142 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Not while equities are pushing all time highs, I can bet that...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:55 | 2479146 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Timed for Obama's reelection.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:57 | 2479155 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Agreed. One must be very careful assuming the fed has no other bullets in the gun.

QE will happen, but when?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:57 | 2479158 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The situation forces the fact that the Federal Reserve is an unconstitutional arm of the US government before the public eye.

It also emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between big banks and politicians, and their parasitic relationship with ordinary citizens.  The situation cannot persist, and the end is in sight.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479187 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

QE hasn't worked yet, why expect more of the same? Hope for money drops (literally) might be better placed.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:19 | 2479289 bdc63
bdc63's picture

that depends how you define "worked" ... if all you are trying to do is keep the illusion alive a little longer so that the insider powerful and wealthy can get powerful-er and wealthier, then it has worked.  Quite well actually.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:50 | 2479117 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Finally, we can quit speculating on New QE, after more than a year of relentless debate. The question is settled. We can move on. Whew!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:50 | 2479118 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Print Ben print! Put an end to this fucker with a big 10 trillion dollar exclamation point!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:51 | 2479123 nolla
nolla's picture

and some people are more equal than others.. European futures dropped 3 minutes before this info was out.

Or is this info sold to momos in advance - legally, I mean?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:55 | 2479145 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Define "legally" please. Do you mean by way of "law"?

Or do you mean "law that will be enforced"?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:15 | 2479169 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Law? What is this law word that you speak of? Are you talking about rules like....we are not allowed to have a big gulp or venti coffee in New York?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:00 | 2479178 nolla
nolla's picture

I guess they sell UofM cons confidence numbers, you can ramp up and buy that info something like 5 minutes in advance. This...I've never heard, you know what I mean. Today's action seemed like a leak.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:56 | 2479151 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Some days on ZeroHedge are more equal than others.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:51 | 2479125 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

More QE = more banker bling.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:51 | 2479128 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

QE is assured... But when?

Timing is key.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:52 | 2479130 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

100% chance something will happen.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479194 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

Nice! and a 50% chance we'll all be RICH... or broke.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:52 | 2479131 kito
kito's picture

but tyler, i thought new qe was always 100% assured???

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479203 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It has been.  This is additional QE on top of the behind the scenes QE and the twist QE.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 12:39 | 2480034 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Hi Kito - I owe you money; the USPS hasn't evaporated yet.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:53 | 2479138 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Hookers in the Hamptons , assured.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:54 | 2479143 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

So, we have about 5 loyal ZH minions instantly asking the all-important question "When?"  Let's see a Tyler step into this pig farm to answer that $1trillion question.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:57 | 2479152 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479200 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Well, as long as money is pouring into UStreasuries at this rate is there really any reason to announce the next round of notional cyber printing? 


After all, the 10-year yield isn't zero yet.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:36 | 2479412 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Not a Tyler. However I'll give my $.02.

Not before mid-June

But not after mid-July.

July 4th? That would be just too delicious. Think of all the liberties they could violate with another $2T in cash. They would say the money is to boost employment and secure America against terrorism, Obama needs both going into elections. And on the basis of that they'll spend $100M on shovel-ready "security theatre" projects.

Yeah. $100 million. Chump change. The groundlings will eat it up. Four more years, beotches.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:54 | 2479144 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

PPT have opened the nozzle to full bore to hold this low. How much water do they have?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:56 | 2479153 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That depends upon how much "faith" and "belief" the average Joe has in the "system" because that's all that is holding this baby together.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:57 | 2479164 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Not enough, no auctions today or tomorrow.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:56 | 2479148 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:56 | 2479149 j0nx
j0nx's picture

The People don't care. DWTS is on and beer is still available. Let's not forget about those zany housewives of Atlanta either. Morons. I guess people got more important shit to worry about than generational theft by banksters and politicians.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:06 | 2479221 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

piss on it.  It's fake money anyway and even if they gave you the steering wheel, do you think you could keep it on the road at this point?  As for the sheep, you cannot save them yourself anyway, they have to step out all by theirselves.  Stack what tangibles you can and wait for the Big Game.

it's coming.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:54 | 2479514 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If you think the American people don't get it, then you are wrong.

They know what is happening and the American people will go along with all this because they think this is what is giving them gasoline at the pumps and jobs for their kids. They are wrong on both counts, but they don't know they are wrong. So long as they think that bankster theft is keeping the country alive somehow, they are okay with it.

The economy is like any other technology; once sufficiently advanced, it becomes indistinguishable from magic (to paraphrase A. C. Clarke)

Magical thinking got us here. Magical thinking will carry the day. And then magical thinking will fail because actually there was never any magic.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:58 | 2479167 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More proof that Bernanke is an idiot and has no idea what the hell he is doing.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:03 | 2479201 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

One glance at Lord Blankcheck's personal account balances tells me that you are mistaken. ;)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:04 | 2479209 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Really?  Anyone can steal money when they have access.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:07 | 2479227 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

MFL, whom I respect, wrote that Bernanke didn't know what he was doing. The bank maggots are still getting rich beyond the dreams of avarice and I believe that to be the goal of the fed so I would argue that the bernank knows exactly what he is doing.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:58 | 2479168 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I can see the light at the end of the tunnel...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:59 | 2479171 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Forget Obama.  Forget Romney.  I am voting only for candidate CTRL +P.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:00 | 2479184 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Don't count your chickens before the cart.



Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479185 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The good news about exporting inflation?  At least the US is now starting to export something.


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:11 | 2479245 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Your snark-fu is strong.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479186 lower98th
lower98th's picture

QE timing:  Who does Jamie want to be the Prez?  If Obama, QE mid summer.  If Romney, late fall.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479188 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

No QE until after election.  Otherwise too obvious that Bernanke is an Obama supporter.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479202 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If Romney is elected, the Bernanke is OUT.  Don't you think the Bernanke wants another term?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:04 | 2479212 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What they say and what they do are often different, you see.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:23 | 2479321 jomama
jomama's picture

i'd want to be as far away from the guillotine as possible, if i were him.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479190 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

OK, FaceFart down 2% already.  Time to break out another FaceTitanic Schadenfreude forum on ZH.  

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479191 Davalicious
Davalicious's picture

The Fed will continue to resort to underhand QE. I am pretty sure they won't come out and actually admit this UNTIL we see a huge equities collapse. They will have to be "forced" into QE by public demand. They want to be seen as coming to the rescue. They don't want to continue to build a case against themselves.


Fuck Bernanke. I got my gold in the dip.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:05 | 2479214 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

The public is largely out. The only people who care are the maggots and they will keep pushing the market lower until they get what they want. Extortion 101.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:01 | 2479192 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

It makes me feel like puking when I see the volume rising but a candle just staying flat knowing that Blankfein is unloading millions of shares and my grandchildren (unborn as yet) are buying them.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479196 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Lookie its HnS again.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2479204 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Keep them off the sauce too long and they are liable to get sober.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:04 | 2479213 stateside
stateside's picture

QE assured as gold takes a $20 dump in 5 minutes - somebody didn't get the memo.


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:13 | 2479254 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Paper gold down gives Ben more printing cover.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:06 | 2479218 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And the Tylers' Durden meme of "default can be prevented" continues.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:06 | 2479220 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

: Chicago biz barometer falls third straight month. Similar 3-mo streaks have preceded each of last 7 recessions.

Soemwhere, Lak over at EDI is fist bumping going, "See!  I told you motherfuckers!  You wouldn't listen!"

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:06 | 2479224 paulbain
paulbain's picture

Tyler Durden wrote:


This was the lowest print since September of 2009. And scene. NEW QE is now 100% assured.


I agree, but when is the FOMC actually going to begin QE3?? I am getting a little impatient. I suppose that FOMC will wait until SPX dips below 1250-1280, but I dunno. Any opinions?

-- Paul D. Bain




Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:07 | 2479226 dingoj
dingoj's picture

the EU doesn't believe much in QE. Underwater again.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:09 | 2479238 semperfi
semperfi's picture

"NEW QE is now 100% assured."

Which is what EVERYONE thinks - we are at the top of the "NEW QE 100%" bubble.  Am I wrong?  Which is why its A GREAT TIME TO BET AGAINST THIS IDEA and make a shitwad of $$$$.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:13 | 2479257 theTribster
theTribster's picture

The fed has to be careful or they'll be considered political :) And they can't have this. I think another QE will have to happen sooner than later, end of June at the latest, but I think they are waiting for the Greek elections.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:13 | 2479258 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When TBT goes to 0.0001, then is the time for the NEW QE.  

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:18 | 2479266 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

No QE until the commodity "speculation and inflation" are no longer reported as a problem.

  1. There is a strong economic uncertainty at this time. There is considerable inflationary pressure.
  2. China inflation is kicking in for our business starting in the second quarter. Canadian business is flat but US seems solid.
  3. Uncertainty, volatility and speculation rule the raw material pricing market. This is having significant impact on our ability to compete, reinvest, and grow our business.
  4. Aluminum products sales remain at record levels.
  5. Pricing instability being experienced in rubber and thermoforming - resins. All other areas fairly quiet.

 Inflationary pressures "margin squeese" lead to businesses laying off workers and businesses taking on less debt.

So no QE just more happy talk about how they see stress and will keep and eye on it.

The market may try to pump and dump before the fed meeting however. Bonds should rally, gold should fall and the world should turn untill Iran burns.

Happy trading.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:19 | 2479293 semperfi
semperfi's picture


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:23 | 2479324 Stimulati
Stimulati's picture

QE is Milton Friedmanism.  It is destined to fail as a stimulant to the economy but it will make bankers very happy.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:29 | 2479357 adr
adr's picture

Manufacturing surveys are worthless in our financialization economy.

I have tried to find manufactures for many products in America and it is nearly impossible. Unless you are looking for rubber seals or automotive related components you are shit out of luck.

You would think you could find hundreds of suppliers to make a simple plastic box. Nope, almost impossible to find one. I did find a place but all of the plastic they bought came from China and they lacked the proper thermoform machine to make the round edges I needed. The price they finally quoted me was $75 per unit.

It is $5 to make it in China, and the corners were the proper radius. If it were $10 per unit I could have made it here but $75 was out of the question. The reply from the US factory was, "We just don't make things like that here anymore. If you wanted an industrial enclosure box we could make it."


US manufacturing is dead.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:31 | 2479385 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

New QE will not change any of this outcome. I personally don't think it's a sure thing at all. Rates are already at historic lows. Let me say that again ... Historic lows. More QE. For what? For a few days of exhuberence in the markets. Bernanke is an idiot but this would not serve well politically for his future.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:36 | 2479405 LarryDavis
LarryDavis's picture


Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:41 | 2479446 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Well, its consistent with the other numbers. A purely French recovery, Obama's dream.

Remember when he said he wished we were more like Europe? He delivered!!!!!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 11:25 | 2479650 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

They invent the PMI, its a political tool, evryone knows there is no manufacturing in the US. So with a weak PMI drug addict banksters now expect QE, the stock market increases on the expectation of QE, what a f@cked up world we live in! 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 12:08 | 2479863 NetDamage
NetDamage's picture

So ZH is confirming that growth is only picking up slowly as MSM financial phd's repeatedly have stressed /sarc

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