Chicago PMI Soars To 64, Beats Estimate Of 61, Employment Index Highest Since 1984

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier today, when forecasting the Chicago PMI, we warned to "expect another massive beat courtesy of consumers confident that they can have Apple apps, if not so much food, since they still don't pay their mortgages." Sure enough, the economic data is now straight out of China, with the Chicago PMI not only trouncing expectations, printing at 64, on consensus of 61 (the highest since last April when the peak of the liquidity bubble popped and the stock market rolled over), but, wait for it, the Employment index came at 64.2, up from 54.7, which was the highest employment print since April 1984! At this point it is no longer worth commenting on economic data, as between this, the NAR, the consumer confidence, it was all become farce of a blur. we now expect February unemployment to print negative as the labor participation rate slides to 50%, and seasonal adjustments and birth/date fixtures account for 5 million "additions" to jobs. One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.

PMI employment index: hilarious.

And the always entertaining survey responses:

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

Full report here

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Christoph830's picture

The U.S. data that has come out this week has been uber-sketchy.  Ben is deliberately setting up the market too drop before he institutes full-blown QE.  For the short-term, good news is now bad news as the QE-crutch is removed from stock market.

Theta_Burn's picture

I'd say uber-bullshitish...and for the last 3 yrs

My god....what if Robo is right?

ratso's picture

Yes, we know, all good news must be lies.

greyghost's picture

did we just get a margin call in silver???? 10:00 am this fine wed. 60 cent move in five minutes. now a one dollar move down in 10 minutes.

The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"How many fingers, Winston?"

Don Birnam's picture

 

 

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

At first read, one could believe one is reading a survey of business fitness -- conducted in June, 1937.

 

The rhyme of history...

caconhma's picture

Do not forget this is an election year and Obama is their man!

Consequently,

  • the FED will print, print, print
  • statistical data will be fraud, lies, bogus...

 

greyghost's picture

another one dollar drop at 10:45 am this fine wed. aprox. $2.10 drop in silver in 45 minutes!!!!! yea ha can we raise silver margins? have they raised the margin on west texas crude yet?

Theta_Burn's picture

Where do you source your good news from?

Joseph Jones's picture

What?  Do you think TPTB did not see this bubble about to burst in late 06-early 07, when everyone said the train never stops?  Do you think that bubble was some type of unforseen accident?   

Thanks, I'll pass on that Kook Aid, er, excuse me, Kool Aid.  And Oswald was a lone assassin?  And Building 7 was ignored in the 9-11 report, why? 

Oh regional Indian's picture

NUMBers. Blurry Farces.

;-) Hope everyone is hanging tight for the ides of March. Purim and what not!

ori

/roiling-world-righteous-indignation-

LFMayor's picture

you're not married to Miss Cleo, by chance?

bgilliam83's picture

"full-blown QE"?  Did you guys fall off the turnip truck or something?  What exactly do you think ZIRP to eternity means?  I stopped counting numbers then because indefinite ZIRP= QE infinity anyway....

kito's picture

hey sheepie, tyler threw in the towel. no more qe!!!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and anyone who wants to tell me there was QE, just a different name....I want to punch them in the face with a knuckle sandwich when they order a steak sandwich and see if they tell me its the same. So....NOW what? 

bgilliam83's picture

Obviously its not the same retard, but the result more or less is

bgilliam83's picture

Sit back with one of the bottles of grey goose I bought on leverage and watch the mother fucker burn to the ground of course

Hobbleknee's picture

Look at a food stamp participation graph to see who's telling the truth.

 

http://www.comparegoldandsilverprices.com/

Theta_Burn's picture

Switched from short>long and all ready in the money....

Unbelievable....

(4%)...(

chunga's picture

Simply incredible.

Colombian Gringo's picture

Frauduent Statistics, Bitchez

Dr. Engali's picture

Now that his cover is gone what is old Benny boy gonna do? Surely there is no need for Zirp with a roaring economy like this. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly what I was thinking, I mean ZIRP has worked out so well for Japan.  Going on 20+ years for them (since 2008 for us).

The real cost for creating capital without adding any real value will be coming home to roost shortly.

 

Everybodys All American's picture

Bernanke is on full retard and is not turning back. But hey he's the guy with the perfect SAT score. What kind of fool would first of all try to predict interest rates all the way into 2014 unless he needs to print the dollar to fill the debt hole he has created. If his foolish policy is not stopped soon we are toast as a country.

bgilliam83's picture

You still don't actually believe they believe in this bullshit do you?  1600 SAT = supremely useful marionette

Everybodys All American's picture

hopium Chicago style political machine in full frickin force.

The Swedish Chef's picture

This came around 9:30 EST right? Because the Stockholm index zoomed right up at that time. Circuit jerk response...

adr's picture

One of the first rules of lying is that the lie needs to be somewhat believable. If you shoot too far with the lie, nobody will believe it outside the stupidest guy in the room.

The January jobs report was such a farce, they are goosing all the numbers after it to make it look like the reported number was correct.  

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

There are an awful lot of 'stupidest guys in the room' all over the western world. Everywhere you look. f'ing frightening.

Sabibaby's picture

Spike them oil prices bitchez we're in recovery!

Lost Wages's picture

Does this mean Bill Gross fucked up again?

resurger's picture

"plastics and rubber" is a Key Driver for a strong Economy.

 

trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

ZIRP4EVA

QE4EVA

MARK2FANTASY4EVA

TRILLIONDOLLARDEFICITS4EVA

STEALINGFROMSOCIALSECURITY4EVA

 

Make it rain. Hopium rides high. The laws of everything have been suspended forever.

Floordawg's picture

The way the day is shaping up, looks like Bernanke is going to have all kinds of good news...

Metals drifting up before he even opens his mouth. Which way will they go this time?

surf0766's picture

This or any other fudged number in no way changes the projection. U.S. dollar is toast.

mirac's picture

Need to see the Illinois Payroll/Taxes data for the last few months...see if it meshes with this data/bullsh*t

CH1's picture

Well, presuming that any of them tell the truth, of course.

Everybodys All American's picture

Almost all other metrics are lower with the exception of employment being the large beat. Sure.

TigerTrail's picture

SELL ON Positive NEWS ??? ahh yes...Finally some bulllish news for all - - - those who have been waiting for a "Correction"

youngman's picture

Ben better raise rates very soon...or we are toast....

LawsofPhysics's picture

Can't, debt becomes impossible to service.

dwdollar's picture

Don't worry, he can control inflation in under 1 microsecond.

SheepDog-One's picture

Ben needs to turn up the heat but the pressure cooker is already set to explode...false flag time. 

HurricaneMoney's picture

This is as I expected, The numbers will always be better until the election is over. This is all about trying to get Obama re-elected. Yes it is simple as that. All the gimmicks will be

used to make this happen. Fudging the numbers, and putting a happy face on everthing will be the standard sop for the next 9 months.