Chicago PMI Soars To 64, Beats Estimate Of 61, Employment Index Highest Since 1984

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, when forecasting the Chicago PMI, we warned to "expect another massive beat courtesy of consumers confident that they can have Apple apps, if not so much food, since they still don't pay their mortgages." Sure enough, the economic data is now straight out of China, with the Chicago PMI not only trouncing expectations, printing at 64, on consensus of 61 (the highest since last April when the peak of the liquidity bubble popped and the stock market rolled over), but, wait for it, the Employment index came at 64.2, up from 54.7, which was the highest employment print since April 1984! At this point it is no longer worth commenting on economic data, as between this, the NAR, the consumer confidence, it was all become farce of a blur. we now expect February unemployment to print negative as the labor participation rate slides to 50%, and seasonal adjustments and birth/date fixtures account for 5 million "additions" to jobs. One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.

PMI employment index: hilarious.

And the always entertaining survey responses:

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

Full report here

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Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207720 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

The U.S. data that has come out this week has been uber-sketchy.  Ben is deliberately setting up the market too drop before he institutes full-blown QE.  For the short-term, good news is now bad news as the QE-crutch is removed from stock market.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207734 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I'd say uber-bullshitish...and for the last 3 yrs

My god....what if Robo is right?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207745 ratso
ratso's picture

Yes, we know, all good news must be lies.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207755 greyghost
greyghost's picture

did we just get a margin call in silver???? 10:00 am this fine wed. 60 cent move in five minutes. now a one dollar move down in 10 minutes.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207794 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"How many fingers, Winston?"

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 12:03 | 2208073 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

 

 

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

At first read, one could believe one is reading a survey of business fitness -- conducted in June, 1937.

 

The rhyme of history...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:24 | 2207854 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Do not forget this is an election year and Obama is their man!

Consequently,

  • the FED will print, print, print
  • statistical data will be fraud, lies, bogus...

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:56 | 2208041 greyghost
greyghost's picture

another one dollar drop at 10:45 am this fine wed. aprox. $2.10 drop in silver in 45 minutes!!!!! yea ha can we raise silver margins? have they raised the margin on west texas crude yet?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207785 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Where do you source your good news from?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2208716 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

What?  Do you think TPTB did not see this bubble about to burst in late 06-early 07, when everyone said the train never stops?  Do you think that bubble was some type of unforseen accident?   

Thanks, I'll pass on that Kook Aid, er, excuse me, Kool Aid.  And Oswald was a lone assassin?  And Building 7 was ignored in the 9-11 report, why? 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:02 | 2207737 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

NUMBers. Blurry Farces.

;-) Hope everyone is hanging tight for the ides of March. Purim and what not!

ori

/roiling-world-righteous-indignation-

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:09 | 2207766 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

you're not married to Miss Cleo, by chance?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:16 | 2207824 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

"full-blown QE"?  Did you guys fall off the turnip truck or something?  What exactly do you think ZIRP to eternity means?  I stopped counting numbers then because indefinite ZIRP= QE infinity anyway....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:21 | 2207840 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So? Now what?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:23 | 2207844 kito
kito's picture

hey sheepie, tyler threw in the towel. no more qe!!!!!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:33 | 2207891 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and anyone who wants to tell me there was QE, just a different name....I want to punch them in the face with a knuckle sandwich when they order a steak sandwich and see if they tell me its the same. So....NOW what? 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:44 | 2207951 kito
kito's picture

war

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:45 | 2207958 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Obviously its not the same retard, but the result more or less is

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:24 | 2207852 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Sit back with one of the bottles of grey goose I bought on leverage and watch the mother fucker burn to the ground of course

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:26 | 2207860 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Look at a food stamp participation graph to see who's telling the truth.

 

http://www.comparegoldandsilverprices.com/

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:35 | 2207722 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Switched from short>long and all ready in the money....

Unbelievable....

(4%)...(

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207725 chunga
chunga's picture

Simply incredible.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207726 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Frauduent Statistics, Bitchez

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207727 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

More Lies! Move Along!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207728 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now that his cover is gone what is old Benny boy gonna do? Surely there is no need for Zirp with a roaring economy like this. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:06 | 2207749 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly what I was thinking, I mean ZIRP has worked out so well for Japan.  Going on 20+ years for them (since 2008 for us).

The real cost for creating capital without adding any real value will be coming home to roost shortly.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207783 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Bernanke is on full retard and is not turning back. But hey he's the guy with the perfect SAT score. What kind of fool would first of all try to predict interest rates all the way into 2014 unless he needs to print the dollar to fill the debt hole he has created. If his foolish policy is not stopped soon we are toast as a country.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:21 | 2207839 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

You still don't actually believe they believe in this bullshit do you?  1600 SAT = supremely useful marionette

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207730 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

hopium Chicago style political machine in full frickin force.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207731 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

This came around 9:30 EST right? Because the Stockholm index zoomed right up at that time. Circuit jerk response...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:02 | 2207736 adr
adr's picture

One of the first rules of lying is that the lie needs to be somewhat believable. If you shoot too far with the lie, nobody will believe it outside the stupidest guy in the room.

The January jobs report was such a farce, they are goosing all the numbers after it to make it look like the reported number was correct.  

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:29 | 2207874 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

There are an awful lot of 'stupidest guys in the room' all over the western world. Everywhere you look. f'ing frightening.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:03 | 2207738 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Spike them oil prices bitchez we're in recovery!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:03 | 2207740 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Does this mean Bill Gross fucked up again?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207741 resurger
resurger's picture

"plastics and rubber" is a Key Driver for a strong Economy.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207742 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

ZIRP4EVA

QE4EVA

MARK2FANTASY4EVA

TRILLIONDOLLARDEFICITS4EVA

STEALINGFROMSOCIALSECURITY4EVA

 

Make it rain. Hopium rides high. The laws of everything have been suspended forever.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:15 | 2207808 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Rain is transitory.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207746 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

The way the day is shaping up, looks like Bernanke is going to have all kinds of good news...

Metals drifting up before he even opens his mouth. Which way will they go this time?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:06 | 2207748 surf0766
surf0766's picture

This or any other fudged number in no way changes the projection. U.S. dollar is toast.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207754 mirac
mirac's picture

Need to see the Illinois Payroll/Taxes data for the last few months...see if it meshes with this data/bullsh*t

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:10 | 2207774 CH1
CH1's picture

Well, presuming that any of them tell the truth, of course.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207756 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Risk is fucking ON!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207757 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Almost all other metrics are lower with the exception of employment being the large beat. Sure.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207760 TigerTrail
TigerTrail's picture

SELL ON Positive NEWS ??? ahh yes...Finally some bulllish news for all - - - those who have been waiting for a "Correction"

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:08 | 2207761 youngman
youngman's picture

Ben better raise rates very soon...or we are toast....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:09 | 2207765 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Like today

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207793 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Can't, debt becomes impossible to service.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:14 | 2207810 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Don't worry, he can control inflation in under 1 microsecond.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:23 | 2207851 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ben needs to turn up the heat but the pressure cooker is already set to explode...false flag time. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:10 | 2207772 HurricaneMoney
HurricaneMoney's picture

This is as I expected, The numbers will always be better until the election is over. This is all about trying to get Obama re-elected. Yes it is simple as that. All the gimmicks will be

used to make this happen. Fudging the numbers, and putting a happy face on everthing will be the standard sop for the next 9 months.

 

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