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Chicago PMI Soars To 64, Beats Estimate Of 61, Employment Index Highest Since 1984

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, when forecasting the Chicago PMI, we warned to "expect another massive beat courtesy of consumers confident that they can have Apple apps, if not so much food, since they still don't pay their mortgages." Sure enough, the economic data is now straight out of China, with the Chicago PMI not only trouncing expectations, printing at 64, on consensus of 61 (the highest since last April when the peak of the liquidity bubble popped and the stock market rolled over), but, wait for it, the Employment index came at 64.2, up from 54.7, which was the highest employment print since April 1984! At this point it is no longer worth commenting on economic data, as between this, the NAR, the consumer confidence, it was all become farce of a blur. we now expect February unemployment to print negative as the labor participation rate slides to 50%, and seasonal adjustments and birth/date fixtures account for 5 million "additions" to jobs. One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.

PMI employment index: hilarious.

And the always entertaining survey responses:

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

Full report here

 

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Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207720 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

The U.S. data that has come out this week has been uber-sketchy.  Ben is deliberately setting up the market too drop before he institutes full-blown QE.  For the short-term, good news is now bad news as the QE-crutch is removed from stock market.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207734 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I'd say uber-bullshitish...and for the last 3 yrs

My god....what if Robo is right?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207745 ratso
ratso's picture

Yes, we know, all good news must be lies.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207755 greyghost
greyghost's picture

did we just get a margin call in silver???? 10:00 am this fine wed. 60 cent move in five minutes. now a one dollar move down in 10 minutes.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207794 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"How many fingers, Winston?"

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 12:03 | 2208073 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

 

 

  • We are hoping that the slow down in new orders experienced in December and January is over.
  • Business seems to be picking up in February. January was slow.
  • Our business continues to grow. We are expanding production area & buying new equipment. From a purchasing standpoint pricing is going up, service levels from almost all vendors is going down.
  • Forecasts seem to be adjusting slightly down. We keep hearing optimism, but still haven't seen it.
  • While our business is strong now, some of our customers are slowing down.
  • Our Production is down still...not sure why, think the economy has started to affect our business.
  • Overall costs are down despite modest increases on some plastic and steel components. In general chemicals have eased, yet there is still much uncertainty on the horizon. Company profits are better than a year ago despite lower than anticipated sales.
  • We are seeing pricing uptrending in motors, plastics and rubber related products.
  • The transportation industry seems to be improving consistently. Orders continue to be strong and folks in my industry associations are hiring.

At first read, one could believe one is reading a survey of business fitness -- conducted in June, 1937.

 

The rhyme of history...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:24 | 2207854 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Do not forget this is an election year and Obama is their man!

Consequently,

  • the FED will print, print, print
  • statistical data will be fraud, lies, bogus...

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:56 | 2208041 greyghost
greyghost's picture

another one dollar drop at 10:45 am this fine wed. aprox. $2.10 drop in silver in 45 minutes!!!!! yea ha can we raise silver margins? have they raised the margin on west texas crude yet?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207785 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Where do you source your good news from?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2208716 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

What?  Do you think TPTB did not see this bubble about to burst in late 06-early 07, when everyone said the train never stops?  Do you think that bubble was some type of unforseen accident?   

Thanks, I'll pass on that Kook Aid, er, excuse me, Kool Aid.  And Oswald was a lone assassin?  And Building 7 was ignored in the 9-11 report, why? 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:02 | 2207737 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

NUMBers. Blurry Farces.

;-) Hope everyone is hanging tight for the ides of March. Purim and what not!

ori

/roiling-world-righteous-indignation-

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:09 | 2207766 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

you're not married to Miss Cleo, by chance?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:16 | 2207824 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

"full-blown QE"?  Did you guys fall off the turnip truck or something?  What exactly do you think ZIRP to eternity means?  I stopped counting numbers then because indefinite ZIRP= QE infinity anyway....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:21 | 2207840 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So? Now what?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:23 | 2207844 kito
kito's picture

hey sheepie, tyler threw in the towel. no more qe!!!!!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:33 | 2207891 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and anyone who wants to tell me there was QE, just a different name....I want to punch them in the face with a knuckle sandwich when they order a steak sandwich and see if they tell me its the same. So....NOW what? 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:44 | 2207951 kito
kito's picture

war

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:45 | 2207958 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Obviously its not the same retard, but the result more or less is

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:24 | 2207852 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Sit back with one of the bottles of grey goose I bought on leverage and watch the mother fucker burn to the ground of course

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:26 | 2207860 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Look at a food stamp participation graph to see who's telling the truth.

 

http://www.comparegoldandsilverprices.com/

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:35 | 2207722 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Switched from short>long and all ready in the money....

Unbelievable....

(4%)...(

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207725 chunga
chunga's picture

Simply incredible.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207726 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Frauduent Statistics, Bitchez

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207727 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

More Lies! Move Along!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207728 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now that his cover is gone what is old Benny boy gonna do? Surely there is no need for Zirp with a roaring economy like this. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:06 | 2207749 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly what I was thinking, I mean ZIRP has worked out so well for Japan.  Going on 20+ years for them (since 2008 for us).

The real cost for creating capital without adding any real value will be coming home to roost shortly.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:11 | 2207783 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Bernanke is on full retard and is not turning back. But hey he's the guy with the perfect SAT score. What kind of fool would first of all try to predict interest rates all the way into 2014 unless he needs to print the dollar to fill the debt hole he has created. If his foolish policy is not stopped soon we are toast as a country.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:21 | 2207839 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

You still don't actually believe they believe in this bullshit do you?  1600 SAT = supremely useful marionette

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207730 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

hopium Chicago style political machine in full frickin force.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:01 | 2207731 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

This came around 9:30 EST right? Because the Stockholm index zoomed right up at that time. Circuit jerk response...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:02 | 2207736 adr
adr's picture

One of the first rules of lying is that the lie needs to be somewhat believable. If you shoot too far with the lie, nobody will believe it outside the stupidest guy in the room.

The January jobs report was such a farce, they are goosing all the numbers after it to make it look like the reported number was correct.  

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:29 | 2207874 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

There are an awful lot of 'stupidest guys in the room' all over the western world. Everywhere you look. f'ing frightening.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:03 | 2207738 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Spike them oil prices bitchez we're in recovery!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:03 | 2207740 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Does this mean Bill Gross fucked up again?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207741 resurger
resurger's picture

"plastics and rubber" is a Key Driver for a strong Economy.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207742 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

ZIRP4EVA

QE4EVA

MARK2FANTASY4EVA

TRILLIONDOLLARDEFICITS4EVA

STEALINGFROMSOCIALSECURITY4EVA

 

Make it rain. Hopium rides high. The laws of everything have been suspended forever.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:15 | 2207808 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Rain is transitory.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:04 | 2207746 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

The way the day is shaping up, looks like Bernanke is going to have all kinds of good news...

Metals drifting up before he even opens his mouth. Which way will they go this time?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:06 | 2207748 surf0766
surf0766's picture

This or any other fudged number in no way changes the projection. U.S. dollar is toast.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207754 mirac
mirac's picture

Need to see the Illinois Payroll/Taxes data for the last few months...see if it meshes with this data/bullsh*t

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:10 | 2207774 CH1
CH1's picture

Well, presuming that any of them tell the truth, of course.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207756 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Risk is fucking ON!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207757 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Almost all other metrics are lower with the exception of employment being the large beat. Sure.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:07 | 2207760 TigerTrail
TigerTrail's picture

SELL ON Positive NEWS ??? ahh yes...Finally some bulllish news for all - - - those who have been waiting for a "Correction"

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:08 | 2207761 youngman
youngman's picture

Ben better raise rates very soon...or we are toast....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:09 | 2207765 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Like today

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207793 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Can't, debt becomes impossible to service.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:14 | 2207810 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Don't worry, he can control inflation in under 1 microsecond.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:23 | 2207851 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ben needs to turn up the heat but the pressure cooker is already set to explode...false flag time. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:10 | 2207772 HurricaneMoney
HurricaneMoney's picture

This is as I expected, The numbers will always be better until the election is over. This is all about trying to get Obama re-elected. Yes it is simple as that. All the gimmicks will be

used to make this happen. Fudging the numbers, and putting a happy face on everthing will be the standard sop for the next 9 months.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207790 TigerTrail
TigerTrail's picture

Look at EUR/USD ??

Just FELL OFF THE CLIFF ??

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:13 | 2207791 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I'd trust the groupthink of lemmings before I'd trust the groupthink of humans.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:14 | 2207801 centerline
centerline's picture

Have to say that were I work we are seeing business pick up considerably and have actually hired some people for the first time in a long time.

Do I think this is real?  Hell no.  We have just reached another temporary lower plateau in terms of consumer and business behavior thanks to massive central bank intervention (most of which we don't see or hear about - but, rest assured is going on).

But, I will take it for now if helps reload a little cash for the inevitable trouble ahead.  My own personal plan is to try to get by longer than it takes for the majority to break... which really isn't that much anyhow considering most people are paycheck to paycheck or living off of government hand-outs.

In reality, nothing is fixed.  Leverage in the financial realm is even higher than it was before.  Fraud is so pervasive now that even J6P is trying to game the system.  Etc.  Shit, folks in my own family are beginning to think and behave with the mentality of instant gratification almost entirely on the basis of "if other folks are doing it - and have this and have that - why shouldn't I?".  We all know this is the classic sign of an inflection point.  When J6P forms a new pattern, the pattern breaks.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:44 | 2207954 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

This is pretty much the only real strategy...  you don't have to outrun the bear per se.

The problem of course, in this environment and with a murky future, the bear may get us all before it's over.  However, I think the traditional notion that partaking in consolidation and distressed asset sales on the marathon (a cup of water if you will) may provide tremendous if not multigenerational opportunities.  This is the side of the great slide that no one wants to talk about...  the whole "buy when there's blood on the streets" mantra.  It's been a successful strategy for more than a few.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:14 | 2207807 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Just had to post this, lol! All in fellas, all in!

*CALIFORNIA SAID TO OFFER 10-YEAR BONDS TO INDIVIDUALS AT 2.69%

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:16 | 2207821 kito
kito's picture

One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.

 

glad you finally see the light tyler....................

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:19 | 2207828 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  ZIRP is QE!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:23 | 2207847 kito
kito's picture

stick with physics....youre clueless

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:26 | 2207859 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Said all along there wouldnt be a QE....now they all want to say their under the table bullshit was QE...whatever!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:26 | 2207864 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yeah, up over 20% for the year.  Clueless indeed.  Resorting to insults only shows us all how much you stink of fear.  Troll harder.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:29 | 2207872 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Me too, up over 20% for the year on PM's and commodities.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:31 | 2207884 kito
kito's picture

youre right, my apologies, i should stick to the message, not the messenger. zirp is not qe. there was zirp while qe2 was being implemented, so obviously they are distinct. and if you have noticed, gold peaked right after qe2 ended. hasnt been back near its highs in dollars since.....sooooo, clearly qe is not zirp................

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:41 | 2207940 Chump
Chump's picture

Finally, indeed.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:19 | 2207832 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

Not seeing any consumer confidence around my neck of the woods. Neighborhood breakfast joint looks emptier by the week. Gas prices are up.

Hopium only works so far.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:21 | 2207841 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

nothing that comes out of Chicago is EVER false or misleading, c'mon now guys we all know that

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:28 | 2207869 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Huh....so NOW what?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:24 | 2207853 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

717 240 7864

Judge martins new phone number.

They had to quit answering the old phone number hehehe.

Be polite. Dont make threats. It is legal to call and ask as many questions as you want, or leave ling rambling messages

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:50 | 2207996 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

RULES OF PROPOGANDA


1. Propagandist must have access to intelligence concerning events and public opinion.
2. Propaganda must be planned and executed by only one authority.

a. It must issue all the propaganda directives.

b. It must explain propaganda directives to important officials and maintain their morale.

c. It must oversee other agencies' activities which have propaganda consequences

3. The propaganda consequences of an action must be considered in planning that action.
4. Propaganda must affect the enemy's policy and action.

a. By suppressing propagandistically desirable material which can provide the enemy with useful intelligence

b. By openly disseminating propaganda whose content or tone causes the enemy to draw the desired conclusions

c. By goading the enemy into revealing vital information about himself

d. By making no reference to a desired enemy activity when any reference would discredit that activity

5. Declassified, operational information must be available to implement a propaganda campaign
6. To be perceived, propaganda must evoke the interest of an audience and must be transmitted through an attention-getting communications medium.
7. Credibility alone must determine whether propaganda output should be true or false.
8. The purpose, content and effectiveness of enemy propaganda; the strength and effects of an expose; and the nature of current propaganda campaigns determine whether enemy propaganda should be ignored or refuted.
9. Credibility, intelligence, and the possible effects of communicating determine whether propaganda materials should be censored.
10. Material from enemy propaganda may be utilized in operations when it helps diminish that enemy's prestige or lends support to the propagandist's own objective.
11. Black rather than white propaganda may be employed when the latter is less credible or produces undesirable effects.
12. Propaganda may be facilitated by leaders with prestige.
13. Propaganda must be carefully timed.

a. The communication must reach the audience ahead of competing propaganda.

b. A propaganda campaign must begin at the optimum moment

c. A propaganda theme must be repeated, but not beyond some point of diminishing effectiveness

14. Propaganda must label events and people with distinctive phrases or slogans.

a. They must evoke desired responses which the audience previously possesses

b. They must be capable of being easily learned

c. They must be utilized again and again, but only in appropriate situations

d. They must be boomerang-proof

15. Propaganda to the home front must prevent the raising of false hopes which can be blasted by future events.
16. Propaganda to the home front must create an optimum anxiety level.

a. Propaganda must reinforce anxiety concerning the consequences of defeat

b. Propaganda must diminish anxiety (other than concerning the consequences of defeat) which is too high and which cannot be reduced by people themselves

17. Propaganda to the home front must diminish the impact of frustration.

a. Inevitable frustrations must be anticipated

b. Inevitable frustrations must be placed in perspective

18. Propaganda must facilitate the displacement of aggression by specifying the targets for hatred.


19. Propaganda cannot immediately affect strong counter-tendencies; instead it must offer some form of action or diversion, or both.

 

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:58 | 2208055 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

So everything is fine, right?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 12:13 | 2208164 seek
seek's picture

No QE, but the Fed is buying 90% of the long treasuries, printing by other means. So the net effect long term is still a diluted dollar and nominal dollar uplift in assets. More AU/AG for me, please.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 12:43 | 2208358 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

I can tell you that the traffic in Chicago between the junction and downtown is still lightish.  At certain times during rush hour I can go 80MPH on 90 in that stretch.  On the other hand my partner (we are in a building right next to 141 W Jackson) claims he is talking to lots of business people who are talking about bringing production of stuff back here from abroad and are reactivating existing factories and even building more. 

But do yourself a favor and go to http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=BASE and print yourself a chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base from about the end of 2010 to now, or do a 5 year.  It is literally all you need to know.  Which is why markets are reversing.  The meme just crystallized (Santelli just had a good piece about it on CNBS) that we are at a plateau in Central Bank balance sheet expansion for now.  Hence risk off.  Will it last?  I dont know, that 310Billion EUR in LTRO has to go somewhere and some of it will find its way here.  Ultimately it will all depend on whether those squiggly lines on the Monetary Base continue up or not.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 13:02 | 2208425 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Chicago Mafia PMI.

11:45am PPT doing their civil duty.

Amp the Ramp into the close boys.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 13:18 | 2208553 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Those F..king Germans and French are fudging their #'s as well!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 15:18 | 2209137 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

"which was the highest employment print since April 1984!"

How Orwellian... how appropriate...

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