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As China Buys, Sellers Push Gold Down To 4 Month Lows
Gold just lost the $1600 handle for the first time since January 5th and is suffering its biggest one-day loss in over two months as Europe's meltdown is driving broad liquidations. Are hungry Chinese central bankers more than happy to soak up the precious metal at a discount from levered longs liquidating into the European fiasco?
Chart: Bloomberg
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BTFD.
stack da smack. I'm sure China will be more than happy to do the same.
The Ultimate Exit Strategy
http://dont-tread-on.me/?p=8660
I warned about this repeatedly, but my warnings were met with verbal abuse and dismissal from the doomer goldbugs. The real safe-haven is the US dollar and US treasuries. Gold is selling off ferociously while the ten year is now at a phenomenal 1.84%! All I can do is smile.
how low, can you go?
MDB, your "/sarc off" button is still broke I see.
But his "stup" (not "/stup") button is alive and kicking.
Don't sell the skin till you have caught the bear.
some times you eat the bear
some times the bear eats you
burp...
Its not bear its baar! Some times the Baar eats you
Treasurys look much safer than gold today. That's a fact. Whether it makes sense is up for debate. Whether it lasts is up for debate (well not really). But yes, so far in 2012, UST looks much much safer than gold.
Helpful.
/sarc
With the Federal Reserve buying 60%+ of all and 80%+ of long term treasuries with funny money and the mathematical impossibility of the US actually making good on it's debt amounts to a very large risk there.
Gold has no risk... it is and will always be gold.
Paul a
not only is the Fed buying Treasuries one must also suspect that every time we see a vertical line straight down on the Kitco graph of gold, that it is the Fed or some agent massively selling paper. This graph clearly shows an agent not out to make money but by all rational explanations ...to put downward pressure on the gold price. Last week we saw a 1.2 billion dollar sale take place over a nano second. No other explanation makes sense to me other than someone is trying to drive gold lower. For this we physical gold advocates should be grateful...I suppose...
You've got till maybe August to buy gold. That's just before we're going to hit the debt ceiling again and the gov officially devalues the US dollar. Gold always goes up with the debt ceiling.
The Titanic looked very safe next to a dinghy too!
Exactly. Only "foolish" people would prefer to be in a Dinghy. At least for awhile. Well, I covered myself in glory; I posted on here yesterday that I thought they wouldn't have a downwave in metals today; oh so wrong. wrong. wrong. wrong. Sorry, sorry, sorry. but don't worry, I'm suffering. My Sept. Silver contract is 7600$ out of the money and I'm still holding on to it. Either I'm really stupid, or this dinghy will look pretty good when the "great Ship" starts tilting. Meanwhile the Play continues---.
No, Treasuries don't look safer. The prices are more stable; less volatile. That is not "safe"; it is less volatile. The Titanic looked very safe even when it was 11degrees down at the bows and stopped and taking on 4000 gallons of sea water a minute, it looked safe by your perception; because it wasn't bobbing up and down; there's a little more to "Safe" then bobbing up and down or not. Safe involves a prediction of the future; it doesn't make any sense to say X looks safer "so far in 2012"; when the question of safe is; "what are the probabilities that this will maintain its purchasing power for the next 2 years, or three years"; there's always a time line for "safe"; it's not a "now" concept.
The safest you can ever be from triping and falling down to your death is when you're already in free fall.
Keep holding those dollars and treasuries because when you start to shit bricks you will need something to wipe your backside and silly grin with.
In the meantime enjoy the fruits of manipulation and try asking your congressman if there really is any gold in Fort Knox.
there is literally no hope for you MDB. I will give you credit for repeatedly calling this -- but I wouldn't be too proud of myself for one quarter of price action. This is a marathon not a sprint. Check this prediction in 10 years and see who comes out on top.
MDB it is raining outside and I am now laughing. I have made alot more in PM's this last year then you made in the markets and tresuries my friend. Whatever am I to do with crappy gold I bought at 300 an ounce! Well of couse I still have not parted with it!
How did you do in 2008 MDB?
You are talking about trading and not building a physical position. When the bubble bursts you will be shit out of luck but you will have plenty of former paper profits to recall fondly! And it's the memories that tide us over......
2012 apr 25 gold 277 week ROC | goldpricemodel
Gold bugs will be vindicated | goldmoney
Gold: The Uncivilized Tradition!
ZULU-HOTEL, repeating transmission...
BRAVO-TANGO-FOXTROT-DELTA... over
Roger roger.
Today, Iran has begun accepting the Renimbi in exchange for oil. This smash down in the metals is too clever by half. Do I hear the $ whistling through the graveyard?
2012 apr 17 gold ROC trends | goldpricemodel | gold BTFD
"Sellers", is that what the kids call them these days?
whats the paper to physical ratio now? maybe 100 to 1? when the world begins calling for delivery on contracts during the upcoming hyperinflationary crises, the spike in physical gold price will be ABSOLUTELY EPIC
Comay
for a different take read FOFOA's latest piece, Inflation or Hyperinflation. It is one of his best peices and shows a different take than the one you see. Gold spikes not due to a flurry of individuals suddenly seeing the light but by those with massive holding withdrawing from this broken market. The results may be surprising.
the article shows the finale of our 'exorbitant privilege' that has now lasted 40 years...we float on a pile of money that suddenly will be seen to be what it is...when central banks no longer offer it a home, but we keep offering it in ever greater quantities to the rest of the world for our governments needs ...well what happens then?
You know how those who don't have it and sell it to those who don't want it, and don't have the money to buy it?
It's the opposite today.
Seems like the hit on PM's has a lot to do with Ron Paul getting some exposure in MSM.
Maybe people are becoming more civilized!
Sellers of paper gold ? More like lemmings jumping off a cliff.
Silver from $37/oz to $29/oz - a move of 22%. What an absolute joke but something bad must be fast approaching that is bad for the dollar. Like all the dollar ditching going on.
Buying all those Euros hasn't been working out too well for them...
Don't want to buy more Dollars...
What's left... Barbarous relics?
There is more gold than shale oil just in the US. BTFD.
What? More gold ounces than shale oil? More gold priced in FRNs than shale oil?
Showing us that Buffet and Munger are right. Don't be too hasty, buying opportunity below 1300 gold and 20 silver.
People will be sewing it into their clothing for lack of a better use...
Just munging: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCXcQ1oBoo4
I told you gold looked sick
these fng's kill me
You were bound to be right at some point if you repeated it often enough. Good jorb!
?
I've been saying it for 8 weeks.
That's not a broken clock unless your attention span is immature.
oh wait, there's my answer
1300 is unlikely, I doubt it will go much below 1500. But in a rigged market anything is possible.
Marc Faber said strong support at 1485...
Actually in a rigged market NOT anything is possible. 2 cardinal rules:
#1 the price volatility can not be allowed which breaks the long-term goal of the manipulators
#2 the price volatility can not be so small to permit benefit to those who are opposed to the manipulators
From this & a lot of data I have determined with a fair reliability
condition #3 repeating patterns of multi-month and multi-year market-activity happen due to repeated use of the same goals which lead to the same implementation of the same market-rigging agents
Gold can't slip below 1544. It has less than 5% chance of getting that low. More likely gold is heading up to 1612 in the next 4 weeks and only higher after that. June target is 1750 to 1800.
Keep waiting for gold to hit 1300, 900, 500 and you'll never buy any.
Silver will not move more than 3x in the decline with gold. Silver can't hit $20. The math is the bottom on silver at 26.95.
log(gold_later / gold_now) / log (silver_later / silver_now) = 3.0 maximum, putting silver at 26.9598 minimum (I rounded down) with gold at 1544 minimum.
2012 apr 25 gold 277 week ROC | goldpricemodel
2012 05 03 gold silver 2012 performance comparison | goldpricemodel
http://chart.ly/w42yco7
Just goes to show there is much loose gold around, all those teeth the nazis pulled out are now surfacing into the market!
falak
this market has NOTHING to do with physical gold. It is ALL paper. The physical market will never be relevant...until it becomes VERY relevant.
CBs know that Euro turmoil and the end of Twist is going to continue to crush equities, so they can't let the reality of gold emerge from the pack. Just another 10% off sale.
No, they are taking it down, so they can do QE3......................
predicted this, I knew they weren't done with the manipulations.
COMEX = CRIMEX.
USDINR rate is causing Indian buyers to pull back bids. they are largest consumers of gold in the world.
Margin call bitchez......Gold is the only acceptable collateral now.
Damn speculators...
Ya cuase the Chinese are buying it makes Gold a good investmnet. Like their Investmnet merits are any good, lets build empty cities.
Gold is going down to about 1400, mightv have even topped at 1920, that dont know but I would not be buying here
Of course you're not buying, you haven't learned to act like a contrarian yet. You're buying when everyone else is, and that's why you will never make a lot of money.
Who said i was buying
All these gold bugs on this site make me laugh, they complain when its going down, its manipulated
if its manipulated, you should STFU and buy more, cause it cheaop right?
Just keep listening to blogs and keep buying
"if its manipulated, you should STFU and buy more, cause it cheaop right?"
Correct, I will be buying soon. But I will not shut up for you.
Ya cuase the Chinese are buying it makes Gold a good investmnet. Like their Investmnet merits are any good, lets build empty cities.
Wake up dude, they are hoarding for the same reasons the CB's are, plus they plan on being the NEW reserve currency.............
Gotta have lots of Gold to do that.
I have heard this line before, but I don't think it will happen. Even if China were to stack enough Au to claim to be gold-backed would you believe them? I won't. Tungsten backed maybe. Let's not forget the beauty of gold. GOLD ANSWERS TO NOBODY. What advantage would a Chinese "backed" Yuan have over gold "backed" gold.
Can I get a trademark on the term "Gold-backed gold"? Or is that already a mix-a-lot song?
Gold will never be allowed back into the monetary system in any way that limits the system. The emerging markets remember all to well the problems they had with the 'gold standard'. Look to the Euro for the furure place of gold in the system. It becomes an asset. It backs NOTHING. Its price in a currency will determine the value of that currency. The world has had it with gold as a backing. It can be manipulated as easily as notes. The world loves gold...in the hands of the people. We should never again give a government the power to tell us what gold is worth. That power belongs in the hands of the market...the people!
This is a semantic point, but "sellers" are not the ones pushing down the price like this. Is there some liquidation of speculative positions, yes, but straight down price action is a hallmark of manipulation of the paper market. Contracts are being dumped to take advantage of the slight downward momentum and to mask the manipulative action. All news that has come out recently has been bullish for gold, especially compared with the news that has accompanied fiat currencies. Is Greece leaving the Euro good for the Eurozone? Is Spain bailing out its banks good for the Eurozone? Is the U.S. approaching another debt ceiling breach good for the dollar? Is the BOJ easing like there is no tomorrow good for the Yen? BTD (expletive deleted) :)
Jeeeezzzz.... THIS IS LIKE GIVING MILITAIRY DETAILS ABOUT THE MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD TO THE RUSSIANS!!!!
oh wait....
do did done already to....
"stick with your gold in euros" play was pretty good wasn't it! There is a point where "King Dollar" rears his ugly head however. I would argue "gold is getting clobbered because US Military action is imminent."
Dimon: Twist is coming to an end, we need more bonuses.
Bernanke: I can't QE with pm and equity prices at these levels.
Blankfein :winks: What if prices went down temporarily?
Bernanke: :right finger on side of nose:
Upside down head and shoulders formation in metals while the dollar is forming a nasty head and shoulders formation. Sanctions on Iran pushing China, India, Turkey to trade in gold. Pan Asia exchange coming online. Mining stocks trading way below asset value. Operation twist ending in June with no other means to prop up the markets. Europe is a mess, and debt levels soaring to all time highs. It might just be the uncivilized barbarian part of me, but I am thinking gold and silver look really good at these levels.
Where are the bears telling me to buy silver before it shoots to the moon?
Hypnosis cession available to Zerohedge zombies only
Repeat after me. Gold going up good, good.
Gold going down, dumb , dumb people selling
10 times a day.
s
chinese bankers are tring to get their money out of china asap. probably buying some gold, but more likely the dollar. the chinese banking system is probably broken beyond repair. after years of basically shorting their own currency with "sterilization" bonds and forcing the local banks to keep reserve requirements in a desperate- attempt to hold down the yuan who- in turn lent away that money on projects which they'll never recoup on, the banking system is short of cash. chinese banks are paying up for dollar deposits-i see it everyday. why else would they do that unless they needed the money? more inclined to think they're net sellers of gold (they've already started trying to unload their copper stockpile).
more inclined to think they're net sellers of gold (they've already started trying to unload their copper stockpile).
Then you would be dead wrong, the stats (available) show MAJOR purchasing of Au by China...............we have NO clue how much they have accrued................they are very close to the vest on total holdings.
If it was such a crappy GO to investment, why arent the CB's dumping it, and really taking it down............Simple,because fiat is shit.
cb's buy at he top and sell at the bottom, not there yet. importers of chinese manufactured goods are hedging the renminbi to the extreme. how ? buying $ futures. copper is being sold not bought-just what i see not read about
no, CB's sell gold at the bottom and buy into the top. That's how all CB's work because unlike you & normal markets they can print new fiat AT WILL and you must buy gold with the same fiat they control.
The SEQUENCE is important. The PURPOSE of selling at the bottom FIRST (not later) is to induce currency confidence and the reason to invert behavior later is to reap the rewards of fraud. In that order. Timing is important because it doesn't work very well in reverse.
You are also very much mistaken on copper.
China only sells copper one way: making stuff out of copper and selling that stuff.
geewhiz190
more inclined to think they're net sellers of gold (they've already started trying to unload their copper stockpile).
And again, on Que, Tyler posts this..............dude do some reading.
"Mainland China's gold imports from Hong Kong surged more than sixfold in the first quarter, to 156 metric tons, adding to signs that the country may displace India as the world's largest consumer of the precious metal on an annual basis." And the punchline: "The purchases through Hong Kong may signal that the mainland is accumulating reserves, London-based brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd. said in February. The nation last made its reserves known more than two years ago, stating them at 1,054 tons."
TPTB are expecting Central Bank coordinated intervention in the near future just like last November. They are driving the PM price down so that they can buy at rock bottom. Buy the dip but don't be in a hurry.
China can buy all the silver bullion in the world for $30 billion (1 billion ounces). China has $3000 billion in reserves. That would endear them to the US Fed and J.P. Morgan.
That would be hilarious. Do it China. Just Do It.
The corruption from the toilets at HSBC to JP Morgan out screwing the people one last time with ILLEGAL NAKED SHORTING is fun to watch and a great opportunity to buy!
On the heels of the USA con game is pushing PAPER Gold down; the Chinese imports of Gold BULLION are up 587% in the first quarter. The con show plays on!!
I'm not surprised Gold has fallen so much - remember, it now acts (since last year) as a "risk asset" for reasons I don't quite understand so don't be surprised that it's falling.
Now, while I'm no gold bug or anti-gold per se, I do think people should be objective about it and see through all the hype and mania on both sides.
I try to be " an independent thinker" as the smart Bridgewater CEO Ray Dalio says. Look at Gold's price action to give you cues as to what's driving the price - Remember back on 29th Feb this year when it dropped over $100+ in a day on "no QE3 announcement" from Bernanke? That told me that the biggest driver pushing gold higher was QE so no QE = Lower Gold.
Just sayin' thas' all. I think there may be scope to enter a long position on Gold @ $1550 support, if it holds.....
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG. The reason for the 29 Feb slam, had nothing to do with Ben stating NO QE. That is what you were made to think. The price drop was coordinated not only with gold but with silver as well. You don't dump a half a years worth of precious metals production in 30 minutes without the thought of making a profit. This was OVERT manipulation to push the price down...in military parlance, this was a INFORMATION OPERATION (with the adjunct PSY-OP) and it worked!!! Do your homework!!!
Very true, plus, all this inane blinkered jabber over "rising gold = QE" utterly ignores gold's greater than 200% price increase between 2001 and 2007, LONG before there was ANY talk of QE, or even a world financial crisis in place. If QE is the only or even major influence on the price of gold today, as the poster above you claims, then what was driving the price of gold steadily higher before 2008?
akak,
Every time they have QE'd, they have taken the PM's down first................limiting the upside.
Yes, that is clear (well, clear to everyone except Jon Nadler and the CNBC parrots).
akak,
Every time they have QE'd, they have taken the PM's down first................limiting the upside.
And right on Que, see Tylers newest post from Goldman.
They MUST take it down, so it does not runaway train them.
2012 apr 25 gold 277 week ROC | goldpricemodel <-- over the green top trend-barrier therefore due to fall to restore ongoing confidence interval for trading trend lasting more than 1 year & still holding
2012 feb 07 zoomed in upside goldpricemodel with silver | goldpricemodel <--- how this same spike fits to the 52-week ROC model projected prior to the drop 2012 feb 29
If I was China I would be selling my USA Bonds....at a high price today.... and buying Gold and Silver.....at to me is a bargin
I was waiting for a good opportunity to buy some silver. Sometimes it's easy to tell.
I didn't know the Chinese were a bunch of uncivilized pre-WWII jews... Charlie, help them out - point them at some productive companies to buy.
long metal short paper will buy more with a bounce
Be cool bitches,
The Fed is trying to change inflationary expectations to deflationary ones.
When people forget inflation and start to fear deflation, QE will be back.
I reckon it will happen when the commodities index slumps to 480+/-20.
Fluffy
The Norwegian Forest Cat...An Allegory
Last spring, my most excellent and fat Norwegian Forest Cat Fluffy spent every moment with me as I weeded the front lawn and garden. He'd stay close, laying in the shade washing himself, occasionally dozing off. Then the mockingbirds showed up...those nasty, noisy dive bombing nuisances wouldn't leave dear Fluffy alone. He ignored them. For months he ignored them. He never raised a paw, he never even got up. Some cat, I thought...he doesn't even defend himself. I thought is was kind of unnatural for my cat to ignore these birds that were so aggressively attacking him One morning in July I opened the front door and found a dead mockingbird on the porch. His chest was ripped opened. The next morning I found the other one, also dead, it's chest similarly ripped opened.
I feel like we should just bide our time.
How about investing in that Chinese pharmaceutical company making longevity pills out of dessicated & ground up aborted babies. I think that Charlie and Warren ought to jump on that opportunity and get lots of free samples in the bargain. Hey - maybe even our beloved Becky ought to down a few of these - keep that youthful glow going strong for Uncle Warren.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2140702/South-Korea-customs-officials-thousands-pills-filled-powdered-human-baby-flesh.html?ICO=most_read_module
Cue the confused propagandist dishwasher blaming the production of ground fetus powder longevity pills on US citizenism.
Correction: on Chinese US Citizenism.
Not to be confused with American US Citizenism, or Indo-European US Citizenism, or Time-Traveling Easter Island US Citizenism, or Blobbing-Up Algebraic Coconut US Citizenism --- all of whose natures are, of course, unchanging and eternal. When the sun blows up into a red giant star and swallows the earth in fiery death in five billion years or so, US Citizenism will still be going strong among the aliens of Xandore 6.
gold holders will be on the same breadline as stock holders. they will just be more pompous about it
Gold holders will own the entire city block where the breadline and the soup kitchen are located.
Harvey (The Big) Organ called this last Friday. Absolutely no surprise here.
I noticed that for the last several months, the HUI has significantly underperformed gold. The HUI has consistently dropped 2-4 times more than the price of physical gold on a percentage basis. This means one of two things, the HUI is predicting with “certainty” a fall in the price of gold or the HUI is being slammed or manipulated to scare people out of physical gold.
With the world currencies being debased agressively, it seems likely to be maniputation to me.
HUI vs Gold here
Many on King World News say the hedge funds are slamming the miners.
I'm additionally suspecting many have failed to produce targets for gold and/or failed to manage their own costs reliably.
In the past one suspected hedge-books BUT allegedly those were all closed out.
Is this a back door way the US can compensate China for its treasury risk?
Ya, raise rates and buy more Chinese goods & stop pressuring China to raise the Yuan and pull away the US military bases near China.
june gold breaking a trendline that's 3 years old
Not this trend-line: the 52-week pattern is in place since 2005 and the 2006 vs present ROC pattern is intact.
2012 apr 17 gold ROC trends | goldpricemodel
see also: 2012 apr 25 gold 277 week ROC | goldpricemodel
HEY ! Is that a roll of Krugerrands in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me ? Try doing that with paper.
If the central bank of the PRoC really is buying in size, then, to me, that is bearish for gold.
But bullish if it was mercantile families.
And very bearish indeed if it was individual Chinese retail.
When I say "Stack it" I don't mean a horde of pointy hats stripping the supply.
It seems the Chinese are not worried about saving some, they want it ALLL....
The good side of these drops is when the price is right, someone will start buying hand over fist.
And one day, it will be well over 2500 with no end in sidght.
what does it mean when the spot price is actually more than the futures price per oz.?
If enough earlier dates (and spot) are higher than later dates it's called "backwardation"
Theoretically this says there's shortage.
GOLD IS 1425 NEXT
2012 apr 25 gold 277 week ROC | goldpricemodel
1544 at the lowest and it would take a lot to get it there.
1612 is more likely and 1750 entering June is a good bet.
still stacking........
Two shops I called for fysical were out of stock today. No Maples, no Eagles, no Krugerands... So the price of paper is going down but fyz market seems to be tight. Any others here at ZH having the same experience recently?
"Are hungry Chinese central bankers more than happy to soak up the precious metal at a discount from levered longs liquidating into the European fiasco?"
Errrm, yes.
DavidC
heheh
MillionDollarBonusitizm